A Wild Life and Death For President Zachary Taylor July 9, 2010

Old Rough and Ready's Military Success Made For a Good Campaign Poster

On This Date in History:  Zachary Taylor was in interesting president.  He had been a very successful general in the Mexican War  and “Old Rough and Ready,” as his soliders called him, became a national war hero.  As a career military man, he had never been involved in politics, though some thought he was most associated with the Whigs.  I”m not sure that there is any record of his ever voting.  So, no one knew with certainty which political party he as aligned.  Northerners liked him because of his military background while  Southerners loved the fact that he owned about 100 slaves.  In the 1848 election, the Free Soil Party arose with their pure anti-slavery position and they nominated former President Martin Van Buren whose nicknames were “The Little Magician” and “Old Kinderhook.”   The Democrats nominated Lewis Cass while Taylor was the choice of the Whig Party.  Taylor won the 3 way race as his battlefield prowess proved sufficient to propel him to the Presidency.  Taylor’s came a few months after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that ended the Mexican War and he assumed the Presidency by taking the role as Commander in Chief very seriously and literally. 

Taylor's Aggressive Style As A General Spilled Over Into His Role As Commander In Chief

During the Mexican War, he consistently showed aggressiveness of command.  The objective of the United States in the Mexican War was simply to get the Mexican government to negotiate a resolution to the question over the border of Texas.  So, when Taylor was victorious at Matamoras, he waited for the Mexicans to back off.  They didn’t so he invaded Mexico.   Then he occupied Monterrey and negotiated a truce.  That truce was rejected by Washington.  A new truce was not consumated, but instead,  Taylor went on the offensive again resulting in more victories.  President Polk realized that Taylor was getting pretty popular at home and did not want him getting any more glory because Polk feared Taylor as a potential Whig candidate for President.  So, he took away Taylor’s best soldiers and ordered them redeployed to General Winfield Scott’s Army.  With a force of just 5000, Polk figured Taylor would be unable to foray deeper into Mexico, thus denying him more publicity at home.  But, Mexican President Santa Anna got wind of Taylor’s weakened force and attacked him with 20,000 men a Buena Vista.  Old Rough and Ready guided his men to another big victory.  Polk had made Taylor an even bigger hero than he had been before.

Taylor's Military Record Could Also Be Spun Against Him In An Election Year

When Taylor took office in March 1849, the slavery issue was getting pretty serious.  There was talk of secession in several Southern States.  By February 1850,  many Southern leaders called for a convention of secession.  Taylor responded by telling many of those Southern leaders that he would personally lead an army to put down any rebellion and that anyone “taken in rebellion against the Union, he would hang … with less reluctance than he had hanged deserters and spies in Mexico.”  Seems he liked the Union more than he liked the radical approach to slavery which seems at odds with his position as a slaveholder.  Around the same time,  there was a border dispute between New Mexico and Texas in which Texas claimed a chunk of New Mexico was Texas territory, including the capital of Santa Fe.  By early summer, the dispute got so heated that the governor of Texas ordered state soldiers be sent to gain control of Santa Fe.  Taylor did not agree with the claims of the Lone Star State and ordered his military commander in New Mexico to order troops to resist any Texas troops.  The commander refused.  So, he told the Secretary of War to sign such an order.  He too refused.  Taylor responded by saying, “then I’ll sign the order myself!”  Once again, he threatened to personally lead an army to the region and hang anyone he found to be in rebellion against the Union.  Taylor decided to advise Congress of the situation, but he never  got around to it. 

Texas Territory Claims Went Beyond Santa Fe to Wyoming; Taylor Would Have None of It

On July 4, 1850 President Taylor attended Independence Day festivities on a hot day in Washington DC and for some reason ate a bunch of cherries and washed them down with milk. He returned to the White House and drank a bunch of water. On This Date In History President Taylor promptly died. The cartoon at the top suggests it was from lemonade which I cannot find suggested anywhere else. I had read that he died from eating too many sweet potatoes but that story seems to have gone by the wayside. There was talk in modern times, though surprisingly not in his day, that he was poisoned because he was a staunch unionist and threatened to personally lead a military attack against any state that tried to secede. In 1991, some of these conspiracy theorists convinced the Taylor family that they needed to dig up the former President from his resting place in Louisville to solve a crime. The DNA results were negative. Imagine that.

At Least They Really Didn't Need to "Dig Up" Zach; They Just Had to Take Him From His Room

So, scholars were back to the original cause of death, which was described as gastroenteritis, which sounds like one of those general terms that doctors assign to cases in which they really have no answer.  Some official websites simply assign the cause of death of the 12th President of the United States as illness.  While Taylor is a rather obscure figure to most Americans today, some folks have posted postulations regarding the death of Zachary Taylor.   Many say that Taylor succumbed to Cholera, probably ingested through the milk or water.  Speculation also leads to a typhoid hypothesis which is associated to the cherries that he ate. Then there is the argument that Taylor suffered from heat stroke that led to other complications.   Regardless, he died on this date in 1850 and you can visit him in Louisville at the Zachary Taylor National Cemetery.   Snow White and I have done so a few times. If he had not passed away as President, we may never have heard of his successor, Millard Fillmore. Well…maybe it made no difference because not too many people have heard of Millard Fillmore.   As it was, after Taylor’s death, cooler heads prevailed and Congress did what it had always done regarding slavery: it kicked the can.  Fillmore signed the Compromise of 1850 that brought California into the Union as a free state and settled the border dispute between Texas and New Mexico by awarding New Mexico the land while Texas the federal government agreed to pay some of Texas’ debt.  Hostilities were delayed and the war that Taylor had threatened against anyone in rebellion became a reality 11 years later.  Had Taylor not died of a stomachache, the Civil War may have taken place before it actually did and how it would have concluded with “Old Rough and Ready” agressively and personally leading the armed forces of the United States is left to speculation.

Weather Bottom Line:  Thursday afternoon produced a lot of noise at my house but not much rain.  Those scattered thunderstorms were in advance of a frontal system that by Friday will produce more general rainfall.  We need the rain and we could use some heat relief.  We will get both but probably not as much of either as most of us would like.  Saturday’s highs will be in the upper 80′s and will probably push 90 on Sunday.  Overnight lows will be running generally in the upper 60′s so a decrease in humidity will at least make summer heat more bearable.  Maybe the most significant aspect of this front is that it represents a change in the long wave pattern in which a big fat ridge in the East will break down to allow more activity to get going in the afternoons.  So, while it will remain fairly hot, the prospects for rain will most likely be higher  for next week on a daily basis more than we’ve seen for the last few weeks.

The Mission That Inspired A Mission March 6, 2010

A Shrine In Texas

Flag That Flew Over Alamo

On This Date in History:

Back in the 18th Century, the Spanish were running around what is now Central and North America, pretty much on a mission of conquest and not so much on a mission of colonization. My take has always been that the main goal of the Spanish was to secure gold and other treasures for the crown rather than develop the territories as on-going concerns. While they were conquering, they also decided that the defeated needed to be saved and so they set out to make the natives Christians. They set up a number of missions where missionaries could “civilize” those who were under the thumb of the conquistadors.

Crockett Coonskin Cap In Hand

One such mission was Mision San Antonio de Valero. Construction on the mission began in 1724. By 1793, the Spaniards decided to secularlize the 5 missions in the area and distributed the lands to the Indians in the region. I’m not sure why they did that but I doubt if it was guilt over taking it in the first place. A guess would be that the “natives were getting restless” and it was a way to appease them so they wouldn’t have a revolt on their hands. What once had been mission lands became their own and they continued their farming. Just after the turn of the century, the Spanish decided that the old mission would make a great fort and so there they stationed a cavalry unit. The solider’s of that unit were from Alamo de Paras, Coahuila. Perhaps they were homesick because they renamed the mission the Alamo, which means cottonwood in Spanish.

During the decade long effort to secure Mexican independence from the Spanish, the fort was held by both revolutionaries and also the Spanish as it changed hands during the fortunes of war. By 1835, things were getting unsettled again in the region of Mexico known as Tejas.

Jim Bowie

The Mexican government had encouraged settlement by immigrants. They got good deals on land and pretty much had a semblance of freedom, provided that they follow the Mexican laws. Most of the immigrants were ex-patrioted Americans. Some were fleeing the long arm of Uncle Sam’s law. Nevertheless, many of the Americans, being a rather independent lot, wanted to separate from Mexico. One item that was in the craw of some of the immigrants was that Mexican law forbade slavery and many of the Americans were slave holders. The Texicans organized volunteers to take up arms against the government and the Mexicans decided it was time to put down the unrest in their territory. The Texicans thought it was time to get more organized and on March 2, 1836 declared independence from Mexico.

Travis Wasn't That Bad of a Guy

Now, the unruly Texicans had gone to battle with the Mexican forces in San Antonio de Bexar in December 1835 and after house to house fighting, forced the Mexicn forces to surrender. The Texicans took up residence in the Alamo which was well fortified and supplied with munitions. Mexican President General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna thought San Antonio was a good place to go after the upstarts and on February 23, 1836 he brought thousands of troops to the Alamo. Inside the Alamo were about 150 Texicans led by William Barrett Travis. He was in charge of the small professional Texas soldier but Jim Bowie led a group of volunteers as did David Crockett and his men from Tennessee. The vastly outnumbered Texicans held out for 13 days. They refused to surrender. Travis wrote a letter that is famous in Texas folklore in which he begs for reinforcements and says that he had answered the Mexican call for surrender with a cannon shot. The Texas State Archive Commission provides more information regarding the letter of William Barret Travis at the Alamo, including an additional note and verbiage written on the envelope.

Letter From Travis

 Only 32 volunteers showed up halfway through the seige to bring the total to 189. No reinforcements came. On this date in 1836, the Alamo fell. All of the men were killed, though modern historians uncovered a letter from a Mexican soldier that claims that a few men were taken prisoner and taken back to Mexico City where they were tortured and killed. One of those men reported to have been captured was  Davy Crockett. I do not believe that this account has been totally accepted by historians though I also do not think it has been totally dismissed either. But, it does fly in the face of John Wayne’s version of the Alamo in which Crockett is one of the last defenders to die and dies taking out several men and blowing up the munitions, in true John Wayne hero manner.

Sam Houston Was Away from his Army

As with many things in history, particularly items as heroic as the Alamo, myths have become fact. Let’s explore a few with the Alamo. It was often been portrayed in film that the Alamo defenders died while “buying time” for Sam Houston to train his army. Truth is that Houston on January 28 was given a furlough to take care of some business. He went and negotiated a treaty with the Cherokee Nation and then served as a delegate to the constitutional convention until March 6. It was at that time that he was reconfirmed as commander in chief of the Texican volunteer and regular army. Travis is often portrayed as a pompous man who was disliked by many of the volunteers, particularly Jim Bowie. Travis was really a very likeable and outgoing fellow.

Alamo Seige-Travis With Sword

The story of the dislike comes from the volunteers refusing to take his orders, but that was more out of loyalty and respect for their own commanders, such as Crockett and Bowie. There were some survivors of the Alamo but they were all women, children and slaves. The weather was not part of one of the coldest winters in Texas history. That rumor came about because the Mexican Army ran through a brutal and freakish snowstorm on their march to the Alamo. A couple of cold fronts came through during the seige but they only took the temperatures into the 30′s. Two days after the seige was over the weather was described as “fine weather.” And finally, the 400 men of James Fannin at Goliad, just 100 miles away, could not have come to the rescue because they had another Mexican Army in the area that they had to deal with.

Heroic Crockett With Musket as Club

Nevertheless, the Texicans ended up getting the last laugh. In late April, with shouts of “Remember the Alamo,” the Texican Army under the command of General Sam Houston, routed the Mexican Army near present day Houston in 26 minutes. They forced Santa Anna to surrender, not only his army but also sign documents that ceded Texas to the revolutionaries. It is said that Santa Anna was distracted in his tent by the beautiful woman spy, the Yellow Rose of Texas. About 10 years later, Santa Anna was at war again over Texas with the United States over the border of Texas…seems Santa Anna believed his definition of Texas only went to the Nueces River, whereas the Americans and Texans determined that the documents that Santa Anna signed at San Jacinto took Texas to the Rio Grande. Santa Anna lost that war too and ended up losing most of the Southwestern United States in the process.

Don't Mess With Texas, Oz!

The Alamo is a shrine today in Texas and millions of people from around the world come to San Antonio each year to visit. One visitor was Ozzy Osbourne who in 1984 was arrested. At 11 am he was spotted drunk, pulling up a dress he was wearing, urinating on the Alamo. He found out the hard way what the Alamo means to Texans. He was banned from the city.

No matter what….this is a great and historic day for Texans around the world!

NAM Shows Pretty Good Instability From OK to SE Texas Late Tuesday

Weather Bottom Line:  Weekend outlook looks on track. Highs in the mid 50′s…maybe even upper 50′s on Saturday for some folks.  We’re back to the mid 50′s on Sunday as a lead shortwave comes out ahead of the main storm.  Rain activity looks to be around Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  Now, the main show will come out and I am pretty confident that there will be some severe weather in the midwest Sunday or Monday and then Tuesday or Wednesday in the South.  I”ll tell you what though..the latest runs want to bring the main short farther North.  Consequently, it’s not out of the question for Thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night around here…nor is it a totally foreign idea that the area of rough weather in the South just may expand closer to Louisville. I do however expect any watch areas to be primarily in Dixie.  We’ll have to see.

Treaty Ends War on Groundhog Day, Negotiator Fired February 2, 2010

Mexico Got Shafted During and After The War...So Did the US Negotiator

On This Date in History:

Treaty In Spanish and English

Abraham Lincoln was a one term Congressman from Illinois. He had an arrangement with the Whig party from Illinois from to rotate the seat and so his former law partner, Stephen Logan ran in his place after one term. But, Logan lost for several reasons, one might have been because of Lincoln’s steadfast opposition to the Mexican War. He thought that the war was nothing but a land grab by President James K. Polk. But, patriotism had gotten the bulk of the public to support the war.

Trist Did So Well, He Got Fired

Well, things didn’t go so well for Mexico under Santa Anna, the same guy who lost Texas. In fact, the Mexican War started over a dispute about the southern border of Texas, which by that time had become part of the United States. So, with things well in hand, President Polk did exactly what Lincoln had accused him of doing. He sent Nicholas P. Trist to Mexico City in May 1847 to offer the Mexicans terms for surrender. But, there were mistakes and confusion and Polk lost patience with Trist and recalled him in October. But, Trist disobeyed orders and stayed in Mexico to try and finish the job. On January 25, 1848, Trist successfully negotiated a treaty to end the war. The agreement became known as the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo and called for Mexico to accept $15 million in exchange for the end of the war and ceding the area of present day California, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. The treaty was signed on this date in 1848  and in the spring the Senate voted for approval.

Looks Like A Good Deal To Me...Not Good Enough For Polk

Trist did a great job. He ended the war and got a good deal on a good chunk of the west and southwest United States that would later yield riches far far in excess of the $15 million paid. In a twist of good timing…gold was discovered in California just the day before the treaty was agreed to. So, did he receive a hero’s welcome back in Washington? No. Polk fired him for insubordination.

Trist Made Out Like a Bandit Compared to Marshall

In a story we visted a few days ago, James Marshall, who is the man who first discovered  gold in California on January 24, 1848 ,died a pauper and the man who negotiated the treaty that brought California into the United States the very next day also ended up a less than glorified citizen. For most of the rest of his life, Nicholas P. Trist worked as a low level clerk for a railroad. It wasn’t until 1870 that someone figured that Trist deserved something and he was officially recognized for his achievement. He fared better than James Marshall of Gold Rush Fame…he finally got his back pay in 1871 and became the consul in Havana.

Trist Got The Trump Treatment

So, the guy did his job and got the results he was sent to get. But, he didn’t do it the way the President wanted and he is largely erased from history. A case of procedure trumping results.  Perhaps Trist would have done better to recognize the date on the calendar and run back into his hole like the groundhog instead of returning home.

This Guy Looks Like My Cats

What About the Groundhog?  Alright…look…there is all sorts of stuff about the Groundhog and how he got his own day.   The first recognition of Ground Hog Day in Punxsutawney, PA was in in 1887.  But, most accounts I see take it back to German tradition but I’ve also seen suggestions it goes back to the Gregorian calendar and all sorts of things. In other words, there doesn’t seem to be any consensus. The tale of course is that if the Groundhog sees his shadow, he gets scared, runs back into his hole and there are 6 more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, then there will be an early spring. So, if it’s sunny, its bad and if its cloudy then its good. Keep in mind that meteorologically, Spring starts a little more than 6 weeks after Groundhog Day.  The official site associated with Punxsutawney Phil is more general with the origins of Groundhog Day goes back to Europe and Candlemas Day, which is associated with the Christian Faith. 

Would Chuck? Could Chuck?

But, I found out more about the groundhog. It’s really a rodent in the squirrel family. Also known as the infamous woodchuck of how much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood fame. It’s also known as a land beaver or whistlepig. The ground hog typically has a 2 to 3 year lifespan but if its in an area without many predators like wolves, bears, hawks, coyotes and bobcats then it can live up to 6 years in the wild or 10 years in captivity.  Now, he doesn’t have a long life so he makes the most of it. A groundhog can dig up to 700 pounds of dirt digging just one den. And the guy can dig up to 5 dens. I suppose that means that he is not necessarily a one woman man….because if he’s got 5 dens then he’s got 5 families! Scandalous….that groundhog! Of course, I’m not sure who does the digging the male or the female so perhaps the guy is also a slacker and makes the woman do the digging while he is off visiting of his other dens. It’s possible this groundhog may be a deadbeat.

Well, please don’t take out your displeasure on the poor little guy…though he can get kinda big and fat. He eats plants and things and if he’s in an area with lots of alfalfa and its safe, he can get as big as 32 inches and weigh up to 30 pounds….or about the size of my fat cats. If you chase him he’s got great claws for all of that digging and is also an excellent climber. Corner him on a lake and he will swim away as he is quite comfortable in the water. And if you try to ponk him on the head, it won’t do much because he has an extra dense cranial bone.  I suspect that the cute little guy can get pretty angry when annoyed.

Phil Never Looks Happy When the Guy in the Hat Pulls Him From His Den

Let’s leave the groundhog alone! A Canadian study found that different places use a number of different groundhogs for monitoring. There were 13 in the study, including Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania and General Lee in Atlanta. The study found that collectively they only had a 37% accuracy rate. I certainly do not advocate any untoward behaviour against my competitors that don’t quite measure up to our standards. No, just leave the groundhog alone and let him do what he does best….which apparently is not forecasting. Let him live his life scandalous life in peace.  And while we’re at it, let us call on PETA to go after the guys in the top hats who annually grab poor old Phil out of his den and hold him up for all to see.  We should pull the guy out of bed at sunrise and display him in the public square and see how much he likes it.  I bet he’d run back into his hole.

GFS advertising 2 inches or snow by the weekend, but it's the bullish model

Weather Bottom Line:  For what it’s worth, Old Punxsatawney Phil saw his shadow so that means 6 more weeks of winter.  When you look at your calendar, that also says 6 more weeks of winter.  Hmm…anyway, the balance of the week looks pretty pedestrian and seasonally chilly.  Oh, we’ll have some slight variations but the overall temperatures should be around the average of 43 for a high and lows around 26 or 27.   At the end of the week, we have an interesting system.  Interesting in that we will get precipitation but its a bit unclear what kind.  At this time, it seems likely we get a little of everything.  Some models are calling for rain, others snow.  But, the critical thickness lines are kinda stradling the region.  The general story features a surface low running up the SE US with an upper low around our area and the general consensus is that the upper portion of the storm hangs out in the Ohio Valley while the surface low swings around for a couple of days.  Guess here is that we have light rain that turns to snow with some accumulations and I bet the temperatures are a little colder than the generally broadcast forecasts.

Aussie Psychiatrists Detect 1st Case of “Climate Change Delusion”; How did Zach Die? July 9, 2009

Global Warming delusional?

There are those who claim that proponents of anthropogenic global warming are lunatics. The word lunatic has actually become a catch all phrase for anything from people with wild ideas, to those who disagree with us to those who are actually mentally ill. It actually arises from early times when it was thought that mental illness had something to do with the phases of the moon, thus the latin root usage of luna.

Call Bob Hartley!

It would seem now that researchers have in fact found a psychiatric condition related to global warming though it is not for the proponents but instead for some who may have developed a deep seeded fear of the phenomenon that is so widely talked about in the press and other media. Here is a story about it from the Melbourne HeraldSun, the actual article and a commentary. You can make of it what you will.

However, I will say that if this condition is true for this young man, then it would be evidence that perhaps there needs to be more responsible reporting and discussion on the topic and stop the hyped up stories and just give the facts without scaring people literally out of their minds.

Melbourne Herald Sun-Doomed to a Fatal Delusion over Climate Change

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry report cited by HeraldSun

Commentary From related science blog Regarding Report

Now, before someone starts labeling me a “global warming denier”, let me assure you that I am not.  In my view, there are many questions to be answered as I believe from my experience in science that man sometimes tends to lose all humility and think he has all of the answers when in fact, he has just scratched the surface in many areas of science, not just atmospheric and climate research.  Scientific “fact” is often replaced by new “facts” that seem to render the old “facts” obsolete.  In this case,  a quick search did not find any other credible sources beyond a couple of doctors from the Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital that wrote in  the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry that refer to global warming delusions, but did find this somewhat less than credible source.    So, while the newspaper sources made the reports, one must remember that just because it’s on tv or in the paper and certainly on the internet, that it is true.  However, there is at least one fairly credible source and it should not be thrown out just because it doesn’t fit your world view, just as it’s true that any data that comes out regarding global warming, one way or another, should not be dismissed out of hand.  It should be scrutinized and put through the peer review process, which at least one Physics organization and  many other have suggested that parts of the IPCC report did not go through. 

Sell Me San Francisco or Else!

On This Date In History: Explorers wandered up and down the Pacific Coast for years before someone decided to snoop about an inlet in what is northern California. In 1769, the Spanish found it and saw it as a strategic asset. In 1776, while the colonists on the other side of the continent were in rebellion, the Spanish founded San Francisco de Asis, which means St. Francis of Assisi. The outpost was the northern most in the Spanish empire and later was the same with Mexico. In 1835, US government made the Mexicans an offer that they should not have refused. Uncle Sam offered to buy the settlement and the Mexicans refused. I believe it was Santa Anna who turned down the Americans generous offer. I guess he was too busy putting down a rebellion in Tejas to consider such real estate deals. By 1846, the Mexicans found themselves in a war with the United States over the southern border of what by that time was the state of Texas.

San Francisco March 1847

Not long after hostilities commenced on this date in 1846, Captain John Montgomery sailed his US warship into San Francisco bay, dispatched a group of marines and promptly took San Francisco de Asis without firing a shot. The Americans must have thought the name was too long and shortened it to simply San Francisco. In 1848, the Americans dictated terms of the end of the war with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that not only forced Santa Anna to turn over San Francisco, but also about 55% of his territory which included all of California, Nevada and Utah, most of Arizona and parts of Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico. Santa Anna did get $15 million for his trouble. But Santa Anna just had bad luck. Not long after he made the deal, gold was found in California which yielded many many more millions than he got. Gold, silver and other precious metals and natural resources were later found in the entire region. He should have taken the San Francisco deal to begin with.

It just so happens that a big shot general in the Mexican War was Zachary Taylor who used his battlefield prowess to propel him to the Presidency. He was elected a few months after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in November 1848. On July 4, 1850 President Taylor attended Independence Day festivities on a hot day in Washington DC and for some reason ate a bunch of cherries and washed them down with milk. He returned to the White House and drank a bunch of water. On This Date In History President Taylor promptly died. The cartoon at left suggests it was from lemonade which I cannot find suggested anywhere else. I had read that he died from eating too many sweet potatoes but that story seems to have gone by the wayside. There was talk in modern times, though surprisingly not in his day, that he was poisoned because he was a staunch unionist and threatened to personally lead a military attack against any state that tried to secede. In 1991, some of these conspiracy theorists convinced the Taylor family that they needed to dig up the former President from his resting place in Louisville to solve a crime. The DNA results were negative. Imagine that.

So, they were back to the original cause of death, which was described as gastroenteritis. Now, many say that Taylor succumbed to Cholera, probably ingested through the milk or water. Regardless, he died on this date in 1850 and you can visit him in Louisville. Snow White and I have done so a few times. If he had not passed away as President, we may never have heard of his successor, Millard Fillmore. Well…maybe it made no difference because not too many people have heard of Millard Fillmore.

Weather Bottom Line:  Boring weather.  Upper 80′s today.  Maybe an isolated t’shower.  Friday and Saturday, low 90′s and much more humid.  Again, isolated t’storm…probably better chance on Saturday.  A front sneaks down Saturday night or Sunday which will raise the prospects of more numerous storms.

A Hallowed Day For Texas! Remember the Alamo! March 6, 2009

A Shrine In Texas

 

 

 

 

Flag That Flew Over Alamo

On This Date in History: 

Back in the 18th Century, the Spanish were running around what is now Central and North America, pretty much on a mission of conquest and not so much on a mission of colonization.  My take has always been that the main goal of the Spanish was to secure gold and other treasures for the crown rather than develop the territories as on-going concerns.   While they were conquering, they also decided that the defeated needed to be saved and so they set out to make the natives Christians.  They set up a number of missions where missionaries could “civilize” those who were under the thumb of the conquistadors.

Crockett Coonskin Cap In Hand

One such mission was Mision San Antonio de Valero.  Construction on the mission began in 1724.  By 1793, the Spaniards decided to secularlize the 5 missions in the area and distributed the lands to the Indians in the region.  I’m not sure why they did that but I doubt if it was guilt over taking it in the first place.  A guess would be that the “natives were getting restless” and it was a way to appease them so they wouldn’t have a revolt on their hands.  What once had been mission lands became their own and they continued their farming.  Just after the turn of the century, the Spanish decided that the old mission would make a great fort and so there they stationed a cavalry unit.  The solider’s of that unit were from Alamo de Paras, Coahuila.  Perhaps they were homesick because they renamed the mission the Alamo, which means cottonwood in Spanish. 

During the decade long effort to secure Mexican independence from the Spanish, the fort was held by both revolutionaries and also the Spanish as it changed hands during the fortunes of war.  By 1835, things were getting unsettled again in the region of Mexico known as Tejas.  The Mexican government had encouraged settlement by immigrants.  They got good deals on land and pretty much had a

Jim Bowie

semblance of freedom, provided that they follow the Mexican laws.  Most of the immigrants were ex-patrioted Americans.  Some were fleeing the long arm of Uncle Sam’s law.  Nevertheless, many of the Americans, being a rather independent lot, wanted to separate from Mexico.  One item that was in the craw of some of the immigrants was that Mexican law forbade slavery and many of the Americans were slave holders.  The Texicans organized volunteers to take up arms against the government and the Mexicans decided it was time to put down the unrest in their territory.  The Texicans thought it was time to get more organized and on March 2, 1836 declared independence from Mexico.

Travis Wasn't That Bad of a Guy

Now,  the unruly Texicans had gone to battle with the Mexican forces in San Antonio de Bexar in December 1835 and after house to house fighting, forced the Mexicn forces to surrender.  The Texicans took up residence in the Alamo which was well fortified and supplied with munitions.  Mexican President General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna thought San Antonio was a good place to go after the upstarts and on February 23, 1836 he brought thousands of troops to the Alamo.  Inside the Alamo were  about 150 Texicans led by William Barrett Travis.   He was in charge of the small professional Texas soldier but Jim Bowie led a group of volunteers as did David Crockett and his men from Tennessee.  The vastly outnumbered Texicans held out for 13 days.  They refused to surrender.  Travis wrote a letter that is famous in Texas folklore in which he begs for reinforcements and says that he had answered the Mexican

Letter From Travis

call for surrender with a cannon shot.  Only 32 volunteers showed up halfway through the seige to bring the total to 189.   No reinforcements came.  On this date in 1836, the Alamo fell.  All of the men were killed, though modern historians uncovered a letter from a Mexican soldier that claims that a few men were taken prisoner and taken back to Mexico City where they were tortured and killed.  One of those men was reported to be Davy Crockett.  I do not believe that this account has been totally accepted by historians though I also do not think it has been totally dismissed either.  But, it does fly in the face of John Wayne’s version of the Alamo in which Crockett is one of the last defenders to die and dies taking out several men and blowing up the munitions, in true John Wayne hero manner. 

As with many things in history, particularly items as heroic as the Alamo, myths have become fact.  Let’s explore a few with the Alamo.  It was often been portrayed in film that the Alamo defenders died while “buying time” for Sam Houston to train his army.  Truth is that Houston on January 28 was given a furlough to take care of some business. He went and negotiated a treaty

Alamo Seige-Travis With Sword

with the Cherokee Nation and then served as a delegate to the constitutional convention until March 6.  It was at that time that he was reconfirmed as commander in chief of the Texican volunteer and regular army.  Travis is often portrayed as a pompous man who was disliked by many of the volunteers, particularly Jim Bowie.  Travis was really a very likeable and outgoing fellow.  The story of the dislike comes from the volunteers refusing to take his orders, but that was more out of loyalty and respect for their own commanders, such as Crockett and Bowie.  There were some survivors of the Alamo but they were all women, children and slaves.  The weather was not part of one of the coldest winters in Texas history.  That rumor came about because the Mexican Army ran through a brutal and freakish snowstorm on their march to the Alamo.  A couple of cold fronts came through during the seige but they only took the temperatures into the  30′s.  Two days after the seige was over the weather was described as “fine weather.”  And finally, the 400 men of James Fannin at Goliad, just 100 miles away, could not have come to the rescue because they had another Mexican Army in the area that they had to deal with.

Heroic Crockett With Musket as Club

Nevertheless, the Texicans ended up getting the last laugh.   In late April, with shouts of “Remember the Alamo,” the Texican Army under the command of General Sam Houston, routed the Mexican Army near present day Houston in 26 minutes.  They forced Santa Anna to surrender, not only his army but also sign documents that ceded Texas to the revolutionaries.  It is said that Santa Anna was distracted in his tent by the beautiful woman spy, the Yellow Rose of Texas.  About 10 years later, Santa Anna was at war again over Texas with the United States over the border of Texas…seems Santa Anna believed his definition of Texas only went to the Nueces River, whereas the Americans and Texans determined that the documents that Santa Anna signed at San Jacinto took Texas to the Rio Grande.   Santa Anna lost that war too and ended up losing most of the Southwestern United States in the process.

Don't Mess With Texas, Oz!

The Alamo is a shrine today in Texas and millions of people from around the world come to San Antonio each year to visit. One visitor was Ozzy Osbourne who in 1984 was arrested.  At 11 am he was spotted drunk, pulling up a dress he was wearing, urinating on the Alamo.  He found out the hard way what the Alamo means to Texans.  He was banned from the city.

No matter what….this is a great and historic day for Texans around the world!   

Sat AM to Sun AM

Weather Bottom Line:  Forecast is generally on track.  We made it all the way to 68 on Thursday, which is 37 degrees warmer than it was on Monday and this in spite of a bunch of clouds.  Similar day on Friday as Thursday as we push toward 70, lots of clouds but perhaps a few showers.  Saturday in the mid to upper 70′s.  Chance of T’storms and rain develop late and carry over into Sunday.  SPC has the threat for severe weather to our west.  Timing of the wave of energy running along the front to our north is no good, though a few storms still could be in the area.  We cool a bit for the first part of the week.  By mid to late week, a cold front finally comes through but right now, the data does not support a huge push of cold air and the models that do suggest cold air pushing through very far to the south don’t keep it around for long…and again…its not that cold…just perhaps slightly below seasonal norms.  Rain chances will be back with the approach and passage of the front.  Here’s the severe threat discussion for Saturday and Sunday.

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
  
   VALID 071200Z – 081200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
   AND LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   AN INITIALLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
   TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR
   CORNERS REGION EARLY SATURDAY…TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO
   VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
   NEGATIVE TILT. AT THE SURFACE…FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
   STALL/BECOME ESTABLISHED IN A GENERAL WEST-EAST CORRIDOR FROM KS TO
   THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
   DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS…WITH A GRADUALLY DEEPENING
   SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IN
   THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR…BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
   MODEST…WITH RETURN LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF LAST WEEKENDS DEEP
   FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
  
   …MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO IL/INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING…
   SIMILAR TO THE LATE DAY 1 SCENARIO…SCATTERED ELEVATED
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING VIA A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AIDED WARM
   ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. AMIDST AMPLE SHEAR
   THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION…A STEEP LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT AND ELEVATED MUCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A
   CONTINUED HAIL RISK DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN
   IA INTO IL/INDIANA. THESE TSTMS AND ANY ASSOCIATED HAIL THREAT
   SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING ALONG
   THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE…WITH THE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED
   TO WANE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/VEERS
   WESTERLY.
  
   …KS/OK/MO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES…KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN
   CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER…SUFFICIENT HEATING AND ONSET OF
   LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SURFACE
   BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON…BUT IT MUCH MORE
   LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO OK
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.
   WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 50S F ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK. REGARDLESS…INCREASINGLY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   SHOULD RESULT IN 500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. BENEATH
   50+ KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW…STRONG SHEAR/AMPLE VEERING
   WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS…WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE HAIL. IN SPITE OF A
   RATHER DYNAMIC SCENARIO WITH STRONG SHEAR…THE LIMITED MOISTURE
   SHOULD FAVOR A QUICKLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN AN HOUR OR
   TWO OF SUNSET…WITH A NOCTURNAL TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO BE BASED
   ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER.
  
   …SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…
   AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/LARGE
   SCALE HEIGHT FALLS…TSTM POTENTIAL/COVERAGE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
   SEVERE THREAT BECOMES MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
   ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX. IF/WHERE TSTMS
   DEVELOP SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING…MODEST INSTABILITY
   AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A RISK OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY A SEVERE HAIL RISK.
  
   …NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TO IA/NORTHERN MO/IL LATE…
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AN INTENSIFYING LOW
   LEVEL JET /50-55 KT/ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD
   AGAIN INCREASE HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST
   SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
  
   ..GUYER.. 03/06/2009

Do Your Job…Get Fired! Unsettled Week Ahead January 25, 2009

Mexico Got Shafted During and After The War...So Did the US Negotiator

 

 

On This Date in History:

Treaty In Spanish and English

Abraham Lincoln was a one term Congressman from Illinois.  He had an arrangement with the Whig party from Illinois from to rotate the seat and so his former law partner, Stephen Logan ran in his place after one term.  But, Logan lost for several reasons, one might have been because of Lincoln’s steadfast opposition to the Mexican War.  He thought that the war was nothing but a land grab by President James K. Polk.  But, patriotism had gotten the bulk of the public to support the war.

Trist Did So Well, He Got Fired

Well, things didn’t go so well for Mexico under Santa Anna, the same guy who lost Texas.  In fact, the Mexican War started over a dispute about the southern border of Texas, which by that time had become part of the United States.  So, with things well in hand, President Polk did exactly what Lincoln had accused him of doing.  He sent Nicholas P. Trist to Mexico City in May 1847 to offer the Mexicans terms for surrender.  But, there were mistakes and confusion and Polk lost patience with Trist and recalled him in October.  But, Trist disobeyed orders and stayed in Mexico to try and finish the job.  On January 25, 1848, Trist successfully negotiated a treaty to end the war.  The agreement became known as the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo and called for Mexico to accept $15 million in exchange for the end of the war and ceding the area of present day California, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.  The treaty was signed on February 2, 1848 (groundhog day) and in the spring the Senate voted for approval.

Trist did a great job. He ended the war and got a good deal on a good chunk of the

Looks Like A Good Deal To Me...Not Good Enough For Polk

west and southwest United States that would later yield riches far far in excess of the $15 million paid.  In a twist of good timing…gold was discovered in California just the day before the treaty was agreed to.  So, did he receive a hero’s welcome back in Washington? No. Polk fired him for insubordination. 

As we saw yesterday James Marshall, the man who discovered the gold in California on January 24, 1848 ,died a pauper and the man who negotiated the treaty that brought California into the United States the very next day also ended up a less than glorified citizen.  For most of the rest of his life, Nicholas P. Trist worked as a low level clerk for a railroad.  It wasn’t until 1870 that someone figured that Trist deserved something and he was officially recognized for his achievement.  He fared better than James Marshall of Gold Rush Fame…he finally got his back pay in 1871 and became the consul in Havana.

So, the guy did his job and got the results he was sent to get.  But, he didn’t do it the way the President wanted and he is largely erased from history.  A case of procedure trumping results.

GFS Snow Accumulation Through Wed AM 1.28.09

Weather Bottom Line:

  The forecast is a bit up in the air.  While some of the forecasts on TV may prove to be accurate, at this point I don’t think anyone can give anything of any great certainty for the middle of next week.  We’re going to stay cold but the freezing line will be pretty close to us.  We do still have some moisture working its way over us for Sunday but shouldn’t be sufficient to bring anything more than a few brief snow showers or flurries.  Now, Tuesday into early Wednesday, we get a bunch of Pacific moisture coming across.  We will probably see some accumulating snow Tuesday afternoon into night.  Now, the GFS keeps us just barely on the cold side. It wants to give us up to 4 inches of now followed by

 

NAM Snow Accumulation Through Wed AM 1.28.09

 some sleet and then freezing rain before it goes back to snow and then has flurries or light snow Friday into Saturday.  This is the most extreme outlook.  The NAM doesn’t seem too interested in giving us  much precipitation on Tuesday and that’s as far out as it goes.  Now, the Canadian model gives us some snow, but not quite as much as the GFS and then turns it to all rain Wednesday into early Thursday.   The European keeps us cold and is kinda a mixture of the GFS and the Canadian.  We get some snow and then rain or a mix on Wednesday but then it digs a trof all the way to the Gulf Coast, pouring in much colder air and bringing some snow on Friday before warm air begins lifting back from the southwest early Saturday in advance of another storm dropping down into the north central plains.   Quite confusing.  I would plan on some snow on late Tuesdaysomewhere in between 2 and 4 inches.  Then I’d plan on a mix on Wednesday which may be a messy day…probably and interesting morning rush hour. I’d then plan on a continuation of chilly conditions.  In looking at the later modeling data, it would seem to me that there is some indication that there is a slight trend in wanting to have decent snow here on Tuesday and then the sleet/freezing rain/rain combo shows up.  The reason this is so difficult to pin down is because we are really really close to the freezing line and it could go either way.  It is interesting that both the late GFS and NAM snow accumulations both are pretty bullish through Wed Morning. After that is the tricky part.  We’ll need to stay tuned.  If you want a more concise forecast at this point…call God.

Viva Texas!! Tropics Showing Some Signs of Life October 13, 2008

Our weather is on track.  After the record high of 87 on Sunday, clouds will be filling in and temperatures will be backing down but it will remain unseasonably warm.  A cold front plods across the nation but most of the rain should be post-frontal.  So, showers will begin to break out late Wednesday in to Wednesday night.  Clouds will stick around on Thursday and a secondary system on Friday may bring some light showers.  While we drop back to the 70′s for the second half of the week, the stuff on Friday will be the most significant in that it will mark a change in the temperature regime as the long wave (jet stream) pattern shifs and for the weekend we get cooler,perhaps a bit cooler than seasonal averages.

On This Date in History:  The Republic of Texas voted to pass a new state Constitution on Oct. 13, 1845.  In doing so, the independent nation paved the way for annexation into the United States.  There had been rumblings during the previous 10 years that Texas should become a state but there was opposition from northern interests that allowing the state in would shift the balance between slave states and free states would shift to the favor of the ”slavocracy.” In November, the election victory of James K. Polk was seen as a mandate from the nation to annex Texas.  But, outgoing President John Tyler wanted to get the credit so he got congressional support for annexation.  Texas became the 28th state in the Union on December 29, 1845. 

Now, Mexico had long disputed the boundary of Texas, claiming that the proper southern boundary was the Nueces River while the Texans claimed it was the Rio Grande River.  The land in between the two rivers was pretty sparsely populated and no one did much about it.  But, the Mexicans warned the Americans that annexation of Texas would be an act of war.  The Mexican minister to Mexico was so convinced of war that he demanded his passport so he could return.  Turns out he was right, in response to the annexation of Texas, the Mexicans put troops in the disputed terrirtory and the Americans sent troops to meet them…thus within a year of the welcoming of the state of Texas into the American fold, war had erupted.  Like the conflict with Texas, this battle was led by Santa Anna who promptly lost even more territory to the United States. 

Texas is the only state in the Union to have formerly been another country and, if you ask a Texan, is the greatest state of all time.   Don’t ask me…you may not like the answer that you get.

TD 15 Visible Satellite 1013 1645Z

Nana Spaghetti Model 1013 12Z

Tropics:

I told you about the disturbance way out in the Atlantic. I wasn’t too enthused with it because there was such little chance that it would affect anything but maritime interests.  Well, it became Tropical Storm Nana and is now already Tropical Depression Nana.  As I had oulined previously, storms that for that far out this time of year have a tough time of getting to the US because frontal activity increases across the North Atlantic.  This guy’s only hope was to move west and underneath any trofiness, but it refused to do so, moved northwest and has gotten sheared apart and is now caught up in the flow of a frontal boundary which will take the remnant out to sea. 

TD 15 Forecast Track 1013 11AM

Then there is Tropical Depression 15.  For several days, I had monitored the

TD 15 Spaghetti Model 1013 12Z

NOGAPS model which wanted to take Nana toward Puerto Rico and then north but the secondary system, now TD 15, would slide farther west perhaps into the Gulf.  But, again, frontal boundary activity moving across the Continental US will make that difficult.  The spaghetti models generally go along with a  scenario of TD 15 moving North and then Northeast as it gets caught up in the flow ahead of approaching trofs. However, it is forecast to become a hurricane. When it becomes a tropical storm it will be Omar. The satellite presentation looks pretty impressive. Then there is Invest 99…its out there too.  Here are the discussions below:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

TD 15 Spaghetti Intensity Model 1013 12Z

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY…I WOULD WAIT FOR THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
START ADVISORIES…BUT IN THIS CASE…THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE
DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND
VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR…BUT IS FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12
TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME
MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT…THE GFDL AND HWRF
FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR
A DAY OR TWO…NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT
PERIOD. THEREAFTER…GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.8N  69.6W    30 KT
12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N  70.0W    35 KT
24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W    45 KT
36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  69.0W    50 KT
48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N  67.5W    55 KT
72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT
96HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N  59.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

AS EXPECTED…WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A DAY OR SO.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AT ABOUT 6 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 16.8N  39.8W    30 KT
12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N  40.6W    30 KT
24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N  41.7W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N  43.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     15/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

San Fran Sell Out; Zack and Bertha Die Out July 9, 2008

SELL ME SAN FRANCISCO OR ELSE!

We’re done as far as interesting weather for awhile. Saturday may hold some promise. The front should move through quietly Wednesday morning. Rain chances will subside late Wednesday. The boundary will slowly drift to the south and should go far enough for a good Thursday with lower humidity. The humidity and heat return for Friday and Saturday will probably be like Tuesday with hot and humid conditions and a front approaching.

On This Date In History: Explorers wandered up and down the Pacific Coast for years before someone decided to snoop about an inlet in what is northern California. In 1769, the Spanish found it and saw it as a strategic asset. In 1776, while the colonists on the other side of the continent were in rebellion, the Spanish founded San Francisco de Asis, which means St. Francis of Assisi. The outpost was the northern most in the Spanish empire and later was the same with Mexico. In 1835, US government made the Mexicans an offer that they should not have refused. Uncle Sam offered to buy the settlement and the Mexicans refused. I believe it was Santa Anna who turned down the Americans generous offer. I guess he was too busy putting down a rebellion in Tejas to consider such real estate deals. By 1846, the Mexicans found themselves in a war with the United States over the southern border of what by that time was the state of Texas.

Not long after hostilities commenced on this date in 1846, Captain John Montgomery sailed his US warship into San Francisco bay, dispatched a group of marines and promptly took San Francisco de Asis without firing a shot. The Americans must have thought the name was too long and shortened it to simply San Francisco. In 1848, the Americans dictated terms of the end of the war with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that not only forced Santa Anna to turn over San Francisco, but also about 55% of his territory which included all of California, Nevada and Utah, most of Arizona and parts of Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico. Santa Anna did get $15 million for his trouble. But Santa Anna just had bad luck. Not long after he made the deal, gold was found in California which yielded many many more millions than he got. Gold, silver and other precious metals and natural resources were later found in the entire region. He should have taken the San Francisco deal to begin with.

It just so happens that a big shot general in the Mexican War was Zachary Taylor who used his battlefield prowess to propel him to the Presidency. He was elected a few months after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in November 1848. On July 4, 1850 President Taylor attended Independence Day festivities on a hot day in Washington DC and for some reason ate a bunch of cherries and washed them down with milk. He returned to the White House and drank a bunch of water. On This Date In History President Taylor promptly died. The cartoon at left suggests it was from lemonade which I cannot find suggested anywhere else. I had read that he died from eating too many sweet potatoes but that story seems to have gone by the wayside. There was talk in modern times, though surprisingly not in his day, that he was poisoned because he was a staunch unionist and threatened to personally lead a military attack against any state that tried to secede. In 1991, some of these conspiracy theorists convinced the Taylor family that they needed to dig up the former President from his resting place in Louisville to solve a crime. The DNA results were negative. Imagine that.

So, they were back to the original cause of death, which was described as gastroenteritis. Now, many say that Taylor succumbed to Cholera, probably ingested through the milk or water. Regardless, he died on this date in 1850 and you can visit him in Louisville. Snow White and I have done so a few times. If he had not passed away as President, we may never have heard of his successor, Millard Fillmore. Well…maybe it made no difference because not too many people have heard of Millard Fillmore.

Bertha Dead?

The photo shows makes Bertha look better than previously. But the storm took a battering with dry air getting involved into the circulation. The official track takes it generally north and then turns it east. It’s got a little area of warmer water ahead of it so it may hold its own or even get a tad stronger before it goes back to falling apart. I saw a couple of computer runs that had the storm slowly drifting to the northwest well off the Northeast coast and south of Nova Scotia. But, the NHC is discounting any such suggestion, though they admit the outlying time frames of will be a little erratic and slow. Either way, it remains very unlikely that the storm will get remotely close to its former self nor that it affects anything more than maritime interests or perhaps vacationers in Bermuda.

More Midwest Flood Stuff; Santa Anna A US Founding Father? June 22, 2008

For Sunday, look for the old Led Zepplin Forecast: The Song Remains the Same. Another trof will swing around and down into our region by late in the day. Most strong thunderstorm activity will be in the heat of the day and probably to our northwest. The data seems fairly consistent between models to bring the trof through here as the sun is going down. While it is a stronger version of what happened on Saturday, the results will generally be the same but given that we may be a shade more unstable and the dynamics a tad better, then I suspect that we will see more goings on than on Saturday. Still, if you find yourself under a t’storm, it would have the potential for a heavy downpour with small hail and gusty winds the best probability. Since it’s swinging through later, there may be some scattered showers lingering early Monday. In fact, if it doesn’t move out by sunrise, some t’storms might erupt. As it stands now though, I think Monday afternoon looks pretty good. The pattern remains unsettled for the balance of the week.

Mississippi River Flooding Update

We’ve been seeing photos and video of the flooding going on in the Midwest. From what I can tell from the data though, in most cases, this event is really not as comparative to the 1993 flooding as reports indicate or as I had thought it would be. That is little consolation to those who have been affected adversely. In any event, I thought you might see what the Army Corps of Engineers is reporting and their forecast data…found on the link below.

Mississippi River Levels As of June 21

Here is a link to a page that has a bunch of You Tube videos of Iowa flooding.

Iowa Flooding Video Link

Here’s another from a guy who is compiling AP video footage

More Iowa Flooding Video

On This Date In History: On this date in 1876, Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna died and I’m surprised the Mexican people don’t have a holiday. This guy was like Jason in Halloween except he was real and didn’t wear a hockey mask. He began as a low to mid level officer in the Spanish Army in the early 19th Century. The only thing he had on Hitler was that at least he was an officer. He gained fame due to his exploits in the Mexican war of Independence from Spain and that got him elected El Presidente by a landslide. When he failed to make a proper democracy, he simply declared himself dictator in 1835. By 1836, he had lost Texas. But, he wasn’t done.

In 1845, the Americans annexed Texas and Santa Anna tried to make a deal. He was deposed for trying to negotiate with the Americans. During the ensuing Mexican War, the guy in charge got tossed out and Santa Anna took over again. He promptly lost just about every major battle he waged and the war concluded with the ceding by Mexico of much of the Southwestern United States for $15 million plus the US took on all American claims against Mexico. Santa Anna voluntarily went into exile. But, he wasn’t done.

In 1853, the conservative party in Mexico gained power and for some reason invited Santa Anna back. He declared himself dictator again and this time required everyone address him as “His Most Serene Highness.” Pretty gutsy for someone who had his rear-end kicked for years and losing huge chunks of his country’s territory. But, he was a gift that just kept on giving. He needed to raise money to support his army..so he sold the United States another chunk of land in the Gadsden Purchase….another $10 million. But that didn’t help as he was overthrown again in 1855. That was the end. All told…Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna was the head of the Mexican Government 11 times!!!

He spent the last 20 years of his life scheming to take over again. It is my understanding that if you mention Santa Anna to a Mexican citizen today, it would be like calling a cop in North Carolina Barney Fife. And understandably so. The guy lost or sold Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, California and part of Nevada during his lifetime. Think of all the oil, gold and silver that was found there. Perhaps we should make Santa Anna an honorary founding father of the United States since he contributed so much to our growth and wealth. Gotta be the biggest loser General in world history and you gotta feel badly for the Mexican people for what might have been.

Rain, Storms and the Republic of Texas March 3, 2008

Late Sunday the SPC identified an area well to our south for a moderate risk of severe weather for Monday night through early Tuesday. The map above is from Sunday evening. We are not in the slight risk. As I’ve been telling you for days, an area of low pressure will form along the front in East Texas. As it moves our way, rain chances will increase. We will probably get in the neighborhood of 1-3 inches of rain. In other words, its developing just as we’ve been saying for the better part of a week. There may be some minor flooding with this event. On down the line, we may need to keep an eye on the Ohio River as rain and snow melt early this week will cause a water rise toward the end week. Snow will be minimal and basically worthless as ground temperatures will be too warm to support much accumulation. We will have a fair amount of wind energy aloft that may come down to the surface in scattered t’storms late Monday, most likely Monday night or early Tuesday. That is why we are in the 5% range but not the slight risk. We will get so much rain that it should dampen our chances for rough weather and the best dynamics will be to our south. My guess is that the areas in the lower Mississippi Valley that had the biggest thumping from tornadoes on Feb 4 will be under the gun again. Our biggest threat will come from gusty winds and perhaps some hail. Rain amounts will be problematic in our area. Stay tuned to newschannel 32 for updates Monday on how this thing shakes out. Jay will really nail it all down for you.

On This Date in History: On this date in 1836, about 187 men were huddled in a mission at San Antonio de Bexar in the Mexican Republic. They were a band of Texicans…mainly expatriated Americans living as Mexican citizens. The Mexican government under the rule of General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna who had welcomed the new residents provided that they lived under Mexican law. Trouble was, these settlers to Texas were an independent sort and wanted to do things their way, which was often the American way. At that time, many Americans had slaves and these Texicans wanted to keep their slaves but Mexican law forbade slavery. This was one of the issues the Texicans had with the Mexican government.

Santa Anna had sent various armies into the region to restore order and make certain the settlers were well healed. But, his surrounding and siege of the Alamo put the Texans to the test.

On March 1, the leaders of the region got together and in one day wrote a declaration of independence. It was signed on this date in 1836 by many men, included Sam Houston. The former United States Senator from Tennessee and potential United States presidential candidate was put in command of the fledgling Texas Army and was made General. But he needed time to raise and train his army. So the men at the Alamo, with Texas heroes such as David Crockett, James Bowie and William Barrett Travis held out instead of retreating. Just 4 days after Texas declared its independence, the Alamo fell as the victorious Santa Anna gloated over the death of all 187 defenders.

The Texans got their revenge though because in April of that year, after weeks of retreating and running, General Sam Houston led his men to a site on Buffalo Bayou near the city that today bears his name. The Mexican Army was resting at its camp with Santa Anna said to have been in his tent with the famous spy, the Yellow Rose of Texas. Though far outnumbered, Houston’s Army defeated the Mexican Army and captured Santa Anna in just 26 minutes. Santa Anna was forced to capitulate and sign papers recognizing Texas’ Independence. Not to be a poor sport, Houston allowed Santa Anna to return to Mexico City. But, just like the Brits didn’t really accept America’s independence until the War of 1812, Santa Anna didn’t really accept the terms of Texas’ independence until he was defeated in the Mexican War of 1846 which was fought in a dispute between the US and Mexico over the boundaries of the then 28th state of the Union.

Prior to that date, Texas was an independent nation for ten years. It’s president…..Sam Houston. After becoming a state, Sam Houston served as a Senator; the only man to serve in the United States Senate from two different states. Houston then was elected governor of Texas but resigned at the outset of the Civil War after Texas seceded. Texas joined the Confederacy and lost the father of the country…just for a time. Today, Texans proudly recall the exploits of Sam Houston, who along with others Texas patriots, declared his independence on this date in 1836.

The flag above was the one flown at the Alamo. The 1824 was a reference to the United States of Mexico as recognized by a liberalized Constitution in 1824. The Texicans, or Texians, were initially in support of a larger revolutionary movement throughout Mexico that said its aim was to force the largely totalitarian government of Santa Anna to follow the Constitution.

Snow White says this sounds too much like a textbook and too much Texan-like. I say, so what…It’s Texas Independence Day!!!