Hurricane Earl Faces Challenges, Still Major Threat to US East Coast August 31, 2010

Hurricane Earl Visible Satellite 1945Z 08.31.10 In Midst of Eyewall Replacement Cycle; Dry Air May Be Trying to Work In-Click Image for Real Time Loop

Note Great Lakes Trof and Huge Area of Dry Air Over Mid Atlantic States: Click Image for Real Time North Atlantic IR Rainbow Loop

CLICK HERE FOR MORE RECENT UPDATE CONCERNING HURRICANE EARL, HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE US EAST COAST AS FAR NORTH AS MASSACHUSETTS

Hurricane Earl has been behaving like a well developed hurricane as during the day on Tuesday it has been going through an eyewall replacement cycle.   Typically, the old eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms.  During this time, any given storm’s maximum winds will typically decrease in response to a rise in the central pressure.  However, the energy tends to get dispersed throughout the storm, thus winds in the extremities may be higher than normally expected as the gradient is not quite as steep.  This is what happened with Hurricane Katrina:  it was going through an eyewall replacement cycle when it made landfall and so it was only a category 3 hurricane but, winds in excess of 100 mph were experienced well away from the center.  I believe that the winds were about 125 mph at the point of landfall in Western Mississippi but winds of 108 mph were felt near Mobile Alabama.  In any event, Earl should complete this cycle by Tuesday afternoon and thereafter some moderate strengthing is possible, though most models do not take it to category 5 status.    So, it may max out at around 140 mph and not 155.  What’s 15 mph amongst friends?  It’s still an extremely formidable storm.

NAM 850mb 12Z Thu 09.02.10 Note Movement of Trof East

NAM 12Z 850mb Wed 09.01.10 Note Trof Over Great Lakes

We had a big high pressure ridge over the Eastern United States last week and another ridge in the Atlantic with a trof in between.  Hurricane Danielle followed the trof that split the two ridges and stayed well out in the open waters of the Atlantic.  By this weekend, that weakness between the two ridges filled in and formed generally one large ridge from the mid Atlantic to the Eastern US with a slight weakness in the ridge along the US East Coast.  Now, as hurricanes traverse farther north from the equator, the coriolis parameters become greater.  The coriolis force is the apparent motion caused by the rotation of the earth.  Any hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere will want to move to the right due to the rotation of the earth.  Until the last day or so, the ridge to the north was strong enough to for the most part overcome the coriolis parameters and keep Earl moving generally westward.  However, as Earl moved north of the Virgin Islands, it began to get toward the edge of the strongest part of the ridge and now is moving to the right of a westward track.  Midday Monday it had a vector of 285 degrees and by the evening it was running at 300 degrees.  This however is not the expected turn north.

NAM 12Z Fri 850mb 09.03.10 Note Relation of Trof on East Coast Vs. Earl Position

That turn north will not occur until a trof moving across the northern part of the United States moves eastward to the US East Coast.  When it does, it will provide the channel for Earl to turn north and run up the trof.  A c0uple of things will happen at that time.  The southwesterly flow ahead of the trof will pick up the storm and turn it north and then eventually north-northeast and then northeast and the forward speed of Earl will also increase.  By the time its up to about 35 degrees North Latitude, it will most likely be scooting along at about 30 mph.  That southwesterly flow will not only turn it and increase its forward speed, it should also disrupt the outflow aloft and that would tend to limit any intensification potential or even lead to a decrease in intensity.  Even though there is a high probability of that coming about, it will still be a very strong storm with a high storm surge potential and its even possible that the forward speed might enhance the surge potential in the front right quadrant. 

1845Z Water Vapor-Huge Area of Dry Air Looks As if it is trying to wrap into Earl: Click Image for Real Time Loop

With regard to the intensity there is another potential fly in the ointment that could prove beneficial.  I noticed yesterday a huge area of dry air on the water vapor imagery to the north of Earl.  That dry air is not quite as large in scale today but it’s still there and is moving south.  Earl will be moving right into that environment and I think that there is a fair chance that Earl may have some of that dry air wrap into it.  If that happens, then the dry air will tend to weaken the storm.  Hurricane Opal got a shot of dry air and it actually acted as a steroid shot for a few hours and the intensity jumped unexpectedly but then it fell quickly when that dry air got into the core.  I believe that there is a chance that some dry air intrusion may take place. If so , that  would be good news.  Nevertheless, I believe the big story with Earl will be the ultimate track.

08.31.10 18Z Hurricane Earl Spaghetti Models Intensity

The spaghetti models have been consistently keeping the storm off the coast, though some recent runs had a model or two taking the storm inland in Maine or one even had it going in farther south in New England.  The National Hurricane Center has been inching the official forecast ever so slightly westward for each of the most recent forecast tracks and has been pretty consistent in keep their forecast track  to the left of the model consensus track.  No one can say for certain at this point because it comes down to a matter of hours in regard to the trof digging into the East Coast.  6 hours difference in the timing would result in the difference of a major hurricane running right along the coast or running up say 80 miles offshore.  While both scenarios would bring significant effects to the East Coast, a storm running just off the coast would be probably the worst case scenario.  In that worst case scenario in my mind, the eye of the hurricane would remain over water so the intensity would not drop all that quickly.  Meantime, coastal residents from North Carolina to Maine would feel the effects of a major hurricane, storm surge, winds and all. 

18Z 08.31.10 Hurricane Earl Spaghetti Model

There remain many scenarios as there are still several days for this to play out.  However, I think its safe to say that residents of the Eastern Seaboard will feel the effects of a hurricane by the end of the week.  The question is how much of an effect and no one can say with certainty what the answer to that question is.  However, places like the outerbanks of North Carolina, the Virginia Coast, Long Island and Cape Cod will get the worst of whatever Earl has to offer.  The history of hurricanes running up the East Coast is filled with examples of storms that weren’t too terrible, but there are also some glaring examples of storms that brought extreme devastation and loss of life.  While we can’t avoid any devastation, there is no reason for loss of life as the potential is great enough with this storm for everyone to know that the better part of valor is to get out of the way.  Remember, estimates suggest that a hurricane at its peak can release 10 to the power of 15 watts of total energy which equates to about 500,000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs every day.  Hurricane Earl quite literally is the most powerful force on the face of the earth right now and that is a battle man cannot win.

Hurricane Earl NHC Forecast 5PM 08.31.10

WTNT42 KNHC 312043
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS.
THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL.  THIS SHEAR
IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER
LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK
GUIDANCE.  ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW
MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 22.0N  68.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.3N  70.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  72.8W   115 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  74.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  75.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 36.0N  73.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 44.0N  65.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 56.0N  55.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Major Hurricane Earl Posing Real Threat to US East Coast August 30, 2010

Click on Image for Latest Satellite Loop

Earl Visible 1945Z 08.30.10 Click for Loop

CLICK HERE FOR MORE RECENT UPDATE

Hurricane Earl will pose a threat to residents along much of the eastern coast of the United States later this week.  If you recall, last week we had Hurricane Danielle that became a powerful hurricane but turned north from the tropical regions into the Central North Atlantic and really was nothing more than a concern for shipping, though it may eventually raise issues along the SE Greenland coast, Iceland, England or mainland Europe.  Danielle turned north because there was a trof in between ridge in the North Atlantic and a ridge over the eastern third of the United States.  Since that time, the trof lifted up and out and the ridge has filled in to a large degree.

Click on Image for Water Vapor Loop

Consequently, Earl has been traveling more westward around the expanding Atlantic ridge at the lower latitudes of teh North Atlantic than Danielle did.  The idea has been that this storm would turn north by now but the models did a lousy job of anticipating the expansion of the Atlantic ridge.  However, each model run from the last 48 hours have been taking the track of Earl farther and farther west.  At this point, none of the hurricane models that make up the spaghetti model depiction take Earl into the United States but does bring it close enough to cause an increase in tides and also provide windy weather in squalls.  However,  midday Monday, Earl was passing North of the Virgin Islands with a vector of 285 degrees, or just 15 degrees north of due west, which means that Earl has not begun its turn.

Hurricane Earl 18Z Spaghetti Intensity Model 08.30.10

Remember, coriolis parameters will want to turn Earl north but the ridge is preventing that.  Any weakness in that ridge will allow Earl to turn.  As it stands, the ridging along the US East Coast is not all that strong so some turning northwest  is anticipated.  But the major turn will come when a trof digs in from the Great Lakes and down the East Coast.  If that happens, then Earl will turn north and increase in forward speed.  There should also be some decrease in intensity as shearing with the trof will tend to mess up the upper support.  However, Earl will remain a significant hurricane.  At 5pm, winds were estimated at 135 mph with gusts to 155 mph.  Several models take Earl to Category 5 status on the Saffir Simpson Scale over the next few days before backing off. 

Hurricane Earl 18Z spaghetti model 08.30.10

The issue is when does Earl turn?  If the trof does not dig as deep as the models advertise, then the turn could be a more gentle, wide turn and that would increase the possibility of it running along the East Coast.  If the trof does not come through fast enough, then the storm will be farther west when it makes its turn and then it affects the US.  None of the hurricane models at this point show the eye of Earl on land in the US.  A couple of conventional 12Z models run it along the VA coast but, in general, they too keep it off shore.  Most models time the storm as off the VA coast on Thursday night.  The majority of the 12Z hurricane models take it to 131 to 140 mph winds (cat 4) at its maxima but decrease intensity as  it runs up the coast.  What concerns me is that if you look at the spagetti models at 18Z, they initiate Earl moving in a heading something a little greater northwest than what I observe from the actual satellite loop.  It could just be a wobble but its possible that Earl may have a bit more of an initial westward motion than the models think and that could greatly affect the ultimate track, depending on how the trof shakes out.  The 5PM Discussion has the intial motion at 290 degrees, which is 5 degrees farther north than the 11AM discussion, but the NHC has once again shifted the track farther west for the first 72 hours.  Again, this bears watching on the East Coast 

National Hurricane Center Forecast Hurricane Earl 5pm EDT 08.30.10

The 18Z hurricane models also raise the stakes and  initiate Earl as a Category 4 hurricane, yet, at 3pm EDT it was only 125 mph.  Several raise its intensity to category 5 before backing it off somewhat.  Regardless, tides will be running very high later this week all along the East Coast.  Folks from North Carolina to Maine will feel some effect of Earl for the latter half of the work week…it just remains to be seen how much of an effect.  The National Hurricane Center added this last remark to its 11AM Monday discussion, which should be enough for East Coast residents to pay attention:

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC.  THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  SINCE THAT TIME…THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL…THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER.  OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT…CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.  THEREAFTER…EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY…WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT.  THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5…THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS…WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD…
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS…AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 19.3N  64.7W   115 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 20.2N  66.3W   125 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 21.7N  68.1W   130 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 23.4N  70.1W   130 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 25.8N  72.1W   125 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 31.6N  74.7W   115 KT
96HR VT     03/1800Z 38.0N  71.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     04/1800Z 45.5N  63.0W    70 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Camille A Powerful But Forgotten Lesson August 17, 2010

Ocean Going Ships Were No Match for Hurricane Camille Aug. 17, 1969

Before Katrina, There Was Hurricane Camille

On This Date in History:  Hurricane is the name given for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.  Tropical Cyclones  form in various parts of the globe but are most frequent in the Western Pacific, where they gain the moniker of Typhoon.  While the annual frequency in the North Atlantic is well below the number expected in the Western Pacific, the very fact of their destructive potential is sufficient for there to be a close study of the storms as they relate to the United States.  By the early 20th century, Americans are used to seeing satellite loops and expert analysis with forecast tracks on television.  While the exact landfall and intensity forecast is not always perfect, everyone in a given area is well informed about the prospects for their area regarding any tropical cyclone activity.  But, it wasn’t all that long ago that none of that was available. 

The Forecast Track For Hurricane Camille Missed the Mark-We've Come a Long Way Since 1969

blahHurricane satellite tracking technology was first developed in 1960, so it has not been available for all that long.  Prior to satellites, the only way that meteorologists could know that a hurricane was approaching was from ship reports.  But, ships tend to try to avoid big storms so the information available was relatively limited.  That meant that the forecast success rate was limited.  The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was officially forecast by the US Weather Bureau to go up the east coast of the United States.  Meteorologist Isaac Cline in Galveston was convinced the storm was approaching Southeast Texas while his bosses in Washington kept saying otherwise.  So, the advent of satellite technology was a huge step forward in tracking storms.  The first hurricane to be tracked continuously by satellite was a rather ominous one:  Hurricane Camille.  In just 3 days it would grow from a tropical storm to become the most powerful force on the face of the earth and the storm of the century.

Hurricane Katrina Made Landfall in Almost The Identical Location As Hurricane Camille 36 Years Earlier

Camille came off the African coast as a tropical wave and progressed across the Atlantic.  On August 9, 1969 it was reported as a disturbance nearly 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Five days later, it was determined that it had a circulation  near the Cayman Islands with a central pressure of 29.50″ or 999 mb and it gained the name of Tropical Storm Camille.  A day later, it was southest of Cape San Antonio, Cuba and it’s pressure had dropped to 991mb or 29.26″ of mercury.  The maximum winds were estimated to be 115 mph and Camille was designated as a hurricane.  Now, the forecast had called for the storm to make a landfall in the Florida panhandle.  But, hurricane forecastinig was in its infancy and, again, this was the first storm to be tracked by satellite.  So, the level of experience using such techniques was limited.  The forecast track versus the actual track had a much larger degree of error than we have today.   Even today,  the intensity forecast is extremely difficult so, back in 1969, the experts had their hands full in that regard.  By the 16th of August, Hurricane Camille had moved North-Northwest into the Gulf of Mexico and its central pressure dropped to 905 mb or 26.72″ of mercury.  At that time, it was the lowest central pressure ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and one of the lowest ever recorded for a tropical cyclone anywhere in the world. 

Fishing Boats Became Common Yard Decorations

On August 17, 1969 Hurricane Camille was about 250 miles South of Mobile Alabama with maximum surface wind speeds estimated to be in excess of 200 mph.  Hurricane Camille was significantly more powerful than Hurricane Katrina.   At 11:30 pm on this date in 1969, Hurricane Camille made landfall near Bay  St. Louis, MS.  Hurricane Katrina had a remarkably similar path as Camille.  Remember, Hurricane Katrina did not hit New Orleans; Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi in nearly the same location as Hurricane Camille 36 years before. 

Destruction Level Map As a Result of Camille

When Camille made landfall, the guage at the west end of the Bay St. Louis bridge registered 909 mb or 26.85 inches of mercury.  That represented the second lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the United States; a 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys checked in with 892 mb or 26.35″.   Hurricane Andrew registered 922 mb at landfall near Miami in 1992 and I believe that Katrina checked in at 920 mb when it was offshore but had a considerably higher central pressure at landfall.   Extreme winds associated with such low pressure make measuring velocity difficult as anemometers tend to blow away or power supplies to measuring devices often fail.  But, the SS Cristobal anchored in Pilottown, LA estimated winds of 160 mph.  Overall, maximum sustained winds estimated for Hurricane Camille were estimated to be 180 to 190 mph with gusts of 210 to 220 mph.  Keep in mind that a tornado designated as EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale has winds of 166-200 mph.  The highest rating for a tornado on the EF scale is EF-5 with winds of over 200 mph.  Hurricane Camille was much larger than any tornado yet its top winds approached those of the most destructive tornado. 

Top computer generated image shows new eyewall forming around contracting old eyewall; bottom shows new eyewall

While Katriana and Camille both were category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir Simpson Scale at one time, Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph.   Camille slammed the coast at full fury.  It is very rare for a hurricane to make landfall in the United States as a category 5 hurricane.  Only Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992(FL landfall) and the unnamed Florida Keys Hurricane in 1935 hold such a distinction on the list of most intense hurricane to strike the United States.  While it is uncertain why several storms have weakened prior to landfall, I believe part of the reason is happenstance.  It is very difficult for a hurricane to maintain maximum strength for long.  Absolute perfect conditions must exist for a hurricane to reach such a level and as time goes by, those conditions change.  Also, there is a natural life-cycle to a tropical cyclone in which, when it reaches its top strength, there is something called an eyewall replacement cycle.  The initial eyewall collapses toward the center and a new eyewall forms.  During this process, the central pressure will tend to rise and the winds decrease.  Hurricane Katrina was in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle when it made landfall which is why it did not hit Mississippi at maximum intensity.   However, it has been my  observation that when a hurricane goes through the cycle, the energy gets expanded from the center and so, while the winds at the core may be decreased, winds at the extremities seem to be stronger than normally anticipated.  In the case of Katrina, the winds near Mobile at Dauphin Island, AL were clocked at 105 mph; that is not much of a lapse from the maximum winds. 

Storm Surge Map Hurricane Camille 1969

Storm surge take time to react to changes in wind speed.  So, while the pressure rose and winds fell off with Katrina, the forward momentum of the storm in conjunction with the storms previous winds of 175 mph resulted in a storm surge consistent with a category 5 hurricane and not a category 3.  I’ve never done a study on the subject before, but I hypothesize that the part of the United States perhaps most vulnerable to a high storm surge is the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  As we have seen with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the water gets very deep very quickly off the coast.  The Deepwater Horizon was located only about 65 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River but it was in some 5000 feet of water.  The area is known as the Mississippi Canyon and depths just off the mouth of the Mississippi River approach 10,000 feet in some spots.  Conversely, the Mississippi Bay is extremely shallow.  So, when the volume of water shoved up from the Gulf comes ashore in Mississippi, it is trapped by the bay and has nowhere to go but up.  With Hurricane Camille, a maximum storm surge of 24.6 feet was recorded near Pass Christian, MS. 

Most of Metairie Was Not As Fortunate As My Aunt

I have family in New Orleans. I was born there.  I know the city.  On the Friday prior to Katrina’s landfall, I called my aunt in Metairie and told her that the storm would hit Mississippi; I told her if I was wrong, then it would be farther east.  The laws of physics and atmospheric conditions told me that it would not hit New Orleans.  However, I warned her that I could not be certain if they would not get affected by the western eyewall or how the levees would hold.  I suggested that she go visit my parents in Houston.  She was reluctant, saying that her house was 8 feet above see level on the Metairie Ridge and that her house never flooded.  I reminded her that, be that as it may, she would be out of power for weeks and nothing would be more miserable than being in New Orleans with no air conditioner.  She finally relented on Sunday and it took her 18 hours.  As it turns out, she was right.  Her home had little or no damage.  Just a mile or so down the road, the homes not on the ridge were irrepairably flooded. 

Click on Map for Times-Picayune Slide Show of Katrina New Orleans Flooding

You see, while New Orleans was not hit by a hurricane and did not receive the full storm surge and Katrina could not match the intensity of Hurricane Camille, it was a much larger storm.  The push of the water to the west,  was enhanced initially by the large wind field and the east wind ahead of Katrina.  As the storm went by the progression of the surge that led to the flooding of New Orleans continued with additional surge that went up Lake Borgne, through the Intercoastal Waterway and toward the Industrial Canal.  I speculate that the surge of Katrina was greater than Camille due to its size.  The surge along the Mississippi Coast was between 20 and 30 feet.  I know for sure, that I told Snow  White on Sunday night prior to Katrina’s landfall that “alot of people are going to die tonight.”  I know that I told my friend and co-anchor, Steve Burgin, the same thing.  Snow White says that I said it on the air.  I’m not so sure that I did.

Before and After View of the Richelieu Apartments Where A Hurricane Party Was Supposedly Held; As the Story goes-one person survived by floating out of a 2nd story window before the building collapsed

But, the reason that I knew that was because it had been so long since Hurricane Camille, that most people did not remember Camille.  I was a kid in 1969 and we were supposed to go to a family reunion in Biloxi but Biloxi was blown and washed away. We drove to Mobile Bay and the Grand Hotel at Point Clear, AL a month after the storm.  I saw the fishing boats on the other side of the highway after Camille.  I saw the empty space were homes and businesses used to be.  Interstate 10 was not complete yet and we had to divert way north to Poplarville, MS and I remember that far inland all of the trees laid over like matchsticks and the utter devastation to Poplarville that was 40 miles inland.  I rememberd how large ocean going freighters were stuck on the beach and saw a giant beached barge.  I remembered the story of the infamous hurricane party supposedly held at the Richelieu Apartments. 

Flooding In Richmond, VA From Hurricane Camille

Most of the people who lived there in 2005 were not aware of Hurricane Camille.  Certainly, the developers of all of those casinos that the legislature determined could not be on land did not learn any lessons from Hurricane Camille in 1969.  Camille killed some 267 people, though many were killed in Virginia and West Virginia from flooding.  In fact, rainfall from Camille  in parts of the Virginia’s  approached 25 inches.   Due in large part to the flooding in New Orleans, somewhere between 1000 and 2000 died from Katrina, yet I”m afraid that to some degree, the lessons from Katrina could be forgotten just as they were with Camille.  The greatest that I can think of is that no one seems to want to admit that Hurricane Katrina did not hit New Orleans.  Some folks along the Mississippi Gulf Coast in 2005 had no clue of what was about to hit them.   I’m afraid that, even though Katrina utterly devastated New Orleans, it will be lost on public officials and residents that it could be far worse.  It is quite unsettling to think of what a Hurricane Camille striking Southeast Louisiana from the Southwest with 200 mph winds would do to the Crescent City.

Weather Bottom Line:  I saw over the weekend a forecast that called for temperatures in the 90′s this week which tells me that person’s abilities are limited.  Upper 80′s is the story as a frontal boundary came through followed by  a secondary push of drier air.  That front to the south didn’t go to far and tomorrow we have a wave running up along that boundary which may overrun our area and give us a chance for rain.  I’m still not so sure that the remnant of Tropical Depression 5 is not going to help bring us some moisture too this week.  Anyway, the humidity should slowly return as the week progresses and we probably will eventually get back to the low 90′s by the end of the week as a warm front moves north on Friday or Saturday in advance of an oncoming cold front.  It’s not that great of a front except that it will reinforce the fairly comfortable conditions we have with bearable humidity and highs around 90.  Sunday looks to be the better of the weekend as rain chances should be off the board.