Always Alert, Samuel Morse’s Success Came From Unlikely Origin May 24, 2010

Finding Success can be an Enigma...ask William Tell

I guess Morse Ended Up Finishing His Lafayette Painting

On This Date in History: In 1810, a young man graduated from Yale and immediately went to England to study art. He created a giant painting and a small sculpture and called them both “the Dying Hercules.” These were his most significant works and I suppose that he figured that was the best he could do and so he came home to America. He decided to paint portraits for a living. He had some works that were considered outstanding including one of Lafayette and other historical figures that were recognized for the extreme detail. Among his portraits of famous people was one of Eli Whitney. The young man gained a pretty big reputation but also was known as a man with a small income. That makes me think that if he was such a big painter, then maybe he would figure out that he needed to charge more for his paintings. I guess perhaps his reputation was good at the price he charged. Had he charged more, then maybe he wouldn’t have been so popular. Well, its a good thing for him, and for the rest of the world, that he had other pursuits to relieve his creative mind.

Signal Flags Were Still Used in Spanish American War When Other Communications Were Not Practical

The word “telegraph” derives from the Greek word, “to write far.” Pretty good description. Before there was electricity, there was a communication system that fit that description. It was in the form of tall poles that put up different arms and other signals. It could be seen at a distance. It was used during the Battle of Waterloo to let the folks know back in London what was going on with the struggle against Napoleon. I suppose that has its use but for long distances, you probably would need a series of big poles with a guy hanging around each one and waiting for a signal to be seen from one direction so he could then relay it to someone in the other direction. I suppose it was better than nothing and probably faster than relying on a guy on a horse, like Paul Revere…though Paul was pretty fast and he could travel at night, which obviously was a limitation for this early form of “telegraph.”

1844 First Telegraph Receiver

So, along comes electricity. Now, a bunch of inventors had figured out the basic principals involved but it was left to the somewhat successful American painter, Samuel Finley Breese Morse, to understand the practical application of those principals and the first to take pragmatic steps to invent a way to take exploit those principals. While at Yale, Morse had taken a keen interest in electricity but was lured by his love for art. He studied under Benjamin West and Washington Allston, who were considered two of the better painters of the day. He got married in 1818 but, while he was working on his painting of the Marquis de Lafayette, he got news his wife died. He left the painting unfinished and became an artistic recluse in his grief. But an odd thing happened, in his grief, he rediscovered his interest in electricity. He attended some lectures of academics but eventually returned to art.

William Cullen Bryant by Morse

In 1829, he went back to Europe to study art.  Had he not done that, he may never had received the inspiration of the telegraph. You see…in 1832 he was on board a ship returning to America when he came upon some scientists who were discussing the properties of electricity. One man queried whether electricity lost its velocity over a long distance. When another remarked that in Ben Franklin’s experiments, he had noted that a captured electrical current traveled over several miles of wire without any time differential as the reaction at the end of the wire seemed to be coincidental with the intialization of the current. That statement triggered the small spark of inspiration in Sam Morse’s head.

Old Sam Looks Like a Decorated Warrior

That left Morse with a tough choice. If he wanted to immerse himself in electricity, then he had to give up painting but, with no painting, he had no income. He was already rather poor, often skipping meals for extended periods or depending on the help from friends. In 1835, he was granted a teaching position in the Art Department of the State University of New York. That gave him access to the facilities and faculty at the University and afforded him the opportunity to expand his electrical research. With the help of a colleague, he made numerous successful experiments and developed a code of communication, known today as the Morse Code. In 1842, Morse went to Washington to build a telegraph line. In early 1843, he convinced Congress to grant him $30,000 to build a line from Washington to Baltimore. And finally, on this date in 1843, Samuel F.B. Morse demonstrated his telegraph to the world. His friend, Miss Ellsworth, came up with the first words to be transmitted. It was “What Hath God Wrought?” Indeed…what? It was the beginning of the information age that eventually progressed from communications by telegraph to radio to television and now the internet. All because a painter became heartbroken by his wife’s death and because he had run off to Europe as part of his grief.

I suppose, this might be an example of “don’t give up.” Difficult situations today might make you say “why me?” or make you angry. But, it could be that circumstance that proves necessary for your later success and happiness.

Weather Bottom Line:  Everything is going right along as scheduled.  However, it got a bit warmer sooner than I expected. Snow White and I were out and about on Sunday afternoon.  Even though we officially hit 90, I think just about everyone was in the mid to upper 80′s since no one lives at the airport where they decided a few years ago to keep the official records.  Necessarily, that means that the temperatures will be hotter.  It’s going to be very difficult for Louisville to break all time low temperature records.  Anyway, my thinking was that there would be so much humidity that it would be difficult to get to 90 this week and I still think that is the case.  But…whatever.  Its going to be pretty warm and humid.  Having said that, isolated afternoon t’showers will be possible..the exception not the rule. One way you can tell if they are going to be an issue if, at noon time you see any towering cumulus clouds. If you do, then there is a good bet that there will be storms in the afternoon.  If not…if you just see puffy cumulus or ones that are kinda flattened out, that would suggest that there is somewhat of a cap and that storms aren’t likely.  Now, at the end of the week, there is a frontal boundary that will be approaching that may bring a better chance for general rain and t’storm activity. 

This is What the actual satellite photo of the Atlantic and the disturbance looked like on May 24 2010

As mentioned yesterday, there is a little system north of the Bahamas.  I’ve seen it show up on the models for several days.  Generally they only take it to 1004 mb and keeps it meandering offshore of the SE US before it scoots away.  I found several news outlets though that, last Friday, claimed that we could have a tropical storm over the weekend.  The Palm Beach Post said “…there’s a chance the first storm of the season will form this weekend.”  That was such nonsense except that 1% chance I suppose qualifies as a “chance.”  There was nothing to suggest that.  Even the guy from the local NWS office didn’t say that. They just made it up. And they weren’t alone.  It’s headline writers and producers in news rooms that often give meteorologists a bad name because they write things that are not accurate. 

This is the photo the TV station uses in association with a story that says absolutely nothing about a tropical storm, tropical depression or hurricane. You decide using this old photo is a responsible act.

Now, WXJT in Jacksonville has one of several headlines put out by various media outlets today that are just as far off base.   They show a picture of a very mature and completely developed hurricane, which who knows when that was taken, but its not this one and they know it but a casual reader may not.  All they see is the photo and a headline that reads,  “Tropical System Brewing in Atlantic?”  If the TV station bothered to read the first sentence of the special statement put out by the National Hurricane Center (found below) it says “…the non-tropical low pressure system….”  That should answer their question mark. They suggest that there is less than a one in three chance for it to acquire subtropical characteristics in the next few days… nothing about tropical.  Now, last night, I found one model run that wanted to run this guy off the Virginia coast and then deepen it quickly to about 984mb as it ran up  just offshore the Northeast and New England coast.  Seemed a bit odd and now that abherration is no where to be found.  Every model that i looked at today still has a 1004-1008 mb low wandering about for a few days off the South Carolina and Georgia Coast before it moves northeast.  From the satellite picture,even an untrained eye like a news producer can see it looks nothing like a tropical cyclone.  Is it possible for it to acquire those characteristics?  Yes. Probable? NO.  And it would have to become a fully developed major tropical cyclone to affect the oil slick operations in the Gulf, and that seems very unlikely…though I suppose the headline writers might say there’s a chance if I said it was .00025% chance.  They like to scare people so they will buy the news paper, read their webpage or watch their news.  Don’t worry about it.  Having said all of that, I have seen in the past where an early storm of dubious distinction was given a name with the “subtropical” modifier. I have speculated that if there is an excuse for a name, they find it early on just to make people more aware of the season’s start.  I have no proof but, I have sometimes wondered if a couple of storms have actually met the criteria and qualified for a name.  So, I won’t be surprised to see a name, deservedly or not…but either way…..there is no indication at all that it will be anything but a moot point.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH WINDS
TO GALE FORCE.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT… OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
NNNN

How About a Little Civility in Global Warming Debate? Unlucky Day for Billy the Kid and Pat Garrett July 13, 2009

Does This Type of Thing Really Advance the Debate?

GET A TAX DEDUCTION, HELP THE POOR-MAYBE WIN A HOUSE! COULD BE WORTH A LOT TO YOU AND OTHERS QUICK CHECK UP

On the other side, does this really advance the discussion?

I hesitate to even bring this up but the Global Warming debate continues and will continue to do so.  No news flash, right?  Temperatures have been quite hot in the Southern Plains and so people are tending to believe in global warming.  But, this article from Shreveport opines for folks to think again.   On the other side of the spectrum, Greenpeace urged politicians to fight Global Warming at Mt. Rushmore.   Then in the Northeastern US, people are wondering what happened to summer.  The UPI blames the cool stretch in the northeastern US on the solar cycle.  In India, the debate recently heated up in the Telegraph regarding malaria rates in Calcutta and how it relates to Global Warming.  Speaking of India, the Times of India reports that India and China resisting the call from the G8 to reduce Global Warming causing pollutants.  This raises the question of whether or not it will do any good whatsoever for everyone to curb emissions if the two fast growing economies don’t play ball.  So, the debate goes on as it should, in my view. 

This type of Hyperbole may sell magazines but I think it just creates divides and does not work toward proper analysis

My reluctance to even bring this to you is because, when I do so, someone always incorrectly calls me a “global warming denier,” which is not accurate.  My suggestion is that all data should not be ignored and not dismissed even if it does not fit your preconceived notions.  But, alas, there are those unethical types out there that insist on printing borderline libelous things if you don’t walk in lock step with your position, regardless of where you fall.  Do you  know that there are people out there who will take your private conversation and then print it on line with ommissions and additions and present it as truth without your knowledge or consent?  They often masquerade as journalists.  Probably not illegal but certainly not ethical, cool or honest.  For the record, I have never said that I am a Global Warming Denier.  All I ask for is a complete and open discussion by all sides and I say it raises red flags when one side wants to cut off all discussion.  And there is no reason why it cannot be a civil discussion. In fact, that would probably be helpful.  I tend to get a little po’d when I am attacked falsely.  It’s hard not to do so and I should do better at that, especially considering there are those out there who use clever techniques to create illusions out of truth.  I think that qualifies as propaganda.  Anyway,   I also think that it would be politically expedient for all sides to agree that developing alternative energy sources is a great idea…for different reasons to different people, but it is an answer to many questions.  Regardless of which side you fall on, I’d encourage not sticking your head in the sand. 

 

Ironic photo-Topekans Work to Save the Water Works from Water

On This Date In History: 

These days, whenever there is a case of flooding somewhere, then immediately people start pondering whether or not it is the fault of global warming.   Truth is, flooding has been going on in the nation since it’s inception and if there were any Native Americans around who lived before the Europeans landed on the shores, they too would probably have flood tales to tell. For instance,  on This Date in 1951, rivers in Eastern Kansas crested at what was their highest levels to that time.  Some 25 inches of rain fell across the region from June through July 13 with the final 6 inches between July 9 and July 13 being the nail in the coffin.  Two million acres of farmland was flooded as rivers crested between 4 and 9 feet above flood stage.  Manhattan, Topeka and Lawrence were greatly affected.  The photo above is from Topeka.  On the Kansas river refinery storage tanks caught fire and exploded and travelers on trains were stuck on board for as many as four days.  The flooding resulted in the development of reservoirs and levees which were credited with lessening the affects of the next record flood in 1993. 

Flooding in the Midwest is not new.  In fact, I would submit that development along the rivers have more to do with any increased flooding than climate change.  All across the nation, less rain in more time have been known to cause greater flooding than previous events due to development that simply wasn’t there during previous events.

Here is a photo gallery from the 1951 flood in Kansas City, Topeka, Manhattan and Lawrence.

Famous Billy The Kid Photo

On This Date In History: While I’m not certain that it was a Friday, July 13 was still unlucky for William Henry McCarty. He is thought to have been born around 1860 in New York. It is unknown who is father was. His mother, Catherine McCarty moved to Indiana in the 1860′s and to Wichita Kansas in 1870 where she was diagnosed with Tuberculosis. She moved to the warmer and drier climate of Santa Fe where she married William Antrim. Since there were two people named Billy in the house, she called her son Henry. His mother died in 1874 and his step-father wanted nothing to do with him so he sent him to a foster home where he had to earn his own keep. He wasn’t too keen on washing dishes and such, so he turned to the dark side. He fell in with horse thieves and such and eventually got into a fight with Windy Cahill, whom he shot dead. Rather than face murder charges he fled. He teamed up with a man named Jesse Evans and went to Lincoln County, New Mexico and took up with forces pitted against John Henry Tunstall. He changed his name to William H. Bonney. Tunstall ended up taking in “the kid” as he thought he was just the product of a troubled life. Billy the Kid ended up killing Sheriff Brady, among others and became a notorious outlaw. Pat Garrett became sheriff of Lincoln County and at one time was friends with Billy the Kid. It is known “the kid” was shot in the dark, but it is said he was shot in the back by Garrett, who by then I suppose was a former friend, on this date in 1881. That event didn’t prove too lucky for Garrett either.

The Dapper Pat Garrett

Garrett wrote a semi-successful book on his nabbing the notorious teenage outlaw but then failed at just about everything else he did. The public didn’t really embrace his celebrity too much as it was accepted he had shot “the kid” in the back. He ran for office several times for the Senate and various places for sheriff but lost every time. He had become friends with Teddy Roosevelt and in 1901 the President appointed Garrett as customs collector in El Paso. Roosevelt found out that Garrett had associated with some unsavory fellows and did not re-appoint him. Garrett became financially destitute and while working on a real estate deal of sorts, was shot to death…in the back of the head.

So…add avoiding shooting an outlaw in the dark to your list of things to avoid for the day.

SPC Severe Outlook Wednesday

Weather Bottom Line:  Yesterday, I suggested not ruling out storms if the boundary waffled a bit.  Well, it did and a short wave moved mainly west to east out of the bootheel of Missouri into our southern counties Sunday evening. Just south of the viewing area, there were a number of trees down.  I saw on tv someone trying to make it sound like it was our viewing area  but clearly, it was Bowling Green’s area.  That shortwave’s approach probably buckled the boundary somewhat but its passing should have given it a kick farther south so today should be dry.  The same tv person also tried to get all worked up about how steamy it would be….so it will be near 90.  So what? It’s July.  And, since we will be north of the boundary, I suspect that dewpoints will be relatively low…the 50′s perhaps? That’s not too steamy.  Anyway, enough of the critique.  Same story for tomorrow.  A fairly significant front will drop down on Wednesday and that is when the SPC is advertising the potential for strong storms, though the boys there are more interested in Louisville and points to the north.  While there may be some t’storm action, I think the most significant thing about the front will be that it will lower our temperatures to the low 80′s…perhaps upper 70′s to the north…and also lower humidity such that air conditioners may be able to take a break for the latter part of the week into next weekend.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009
  
   VALID 151200Z – 161200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH
   VALLEY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
   MOVE FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NWRN ONTARIO EWD ACROSS ONTARIO…WHILE
   A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   OH VALLEY AND OKLAHOMA/NWRN TX. 
  
   …LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY…
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS
   OF LOWER MI AND INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH AND MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL SLOWLY
   SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST
   DURING THE MORNING…WITH INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING CONVECTION
   AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS
   POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
   THE EVENING HOURS.
  
   …LOWER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS…
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR
   THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH VERY WARM LOW
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY.  A
   FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WEAK FLOW
   ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.
  
   ..WEISS.. 07/13/2009

Help The Poor-Get a Tax Deduction-Win a 2100 Sq Ft Home! Anti-War Secretary of State Resigns June 10, 2009

 

Get These Kids Clean Water, Take a Deduction and Maybe Win a Home

Tax decuctable donation gives chance for a new house!  (Go For It! Click HERE!) A couple is selling everything they own to help others.  Lindsey and Bowin Tichenor are taking their 3 small children and moving to the Dominican Republic to help bring the impovershed nation clean drinking water.  The government can’t or won’t do it, so these folks are dedicating their lives to do so.  To help support their mission, they are raffling their home.  (It’s a Suburban 2100 sq ft home  Click Here for Specs)  I’m guessing that because the money raised will go to their mission, essentially you are making a donation and then you get a chance for the home and that is why they tell me the purchase of a chance is tax-deductable.  Go for it.  Odds of winning are going to the casino.  And you are helping others to serve the needs of people in need. Doesn’t matter what  your political party is, your religion or even if you have a religion.  You can help others who are helping their fellow man, you get a tax deduction and you may end up with a house.  You say you care about the poor? Put your money where your mouth is!

Bryan Could Often Get Worked Up in Speeches. The Guy to the Right Looks like He's seen This Act Before

Probably the Closest Photo You'll Find of Bryan Smiling

On This Date in History: On this date in 1915, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned. In May of that year, the Germans had sunk the Lusitania, one of the worlds largest ships. Over 1200 perished, including some 128 Americans. Bryan sent a nicey-pooh note to the Germans saying how he wanted to stregnthen relations and such. I suppose today, Jennings would have  gone to the UN.  Nevertheless, the Germans responded saying that they were justified in torpedoing the passenger ship, claiming it was carrying arms. Years later, historians have established the ship was indeed carrying a small amount of armaments.

Now, Bryan was big-time anti-war.  He had run for President a few times and lost each time but supported President Wilson because the President had run on a platform of peace.  He supported Wilson’s declaration of US neutrality.  But, Bryan saw that the advances in technology had made traditional aspects of neutrality dangerous.  He thought that a position of neutrality should be modified to restrict the travel of Americans into war zones because it was impossible to protect US citizens when there are submarines running around.  But, Wilson insisted on tradition.   

Wilson and Bryan Jan 1913

So, when the Lusitania went down, President Woodrow Wilson responded with a terse note demanding that Germany curtail its practice of unrestricted warfare. Bryan urged the President to send a similar letter to the British for its violation of neutral rights.  I suppose that would be “fair” except that any violations the Brits had did not include the sinking of ocean liners filled with passengers  Wilson instead sent a second letter to the Germans.  Bryan, fearing the letter represented an escalation toward war, resigned instead of signing the letter. The Germans responded by scaling back their U-Boat practices through 1916. When they started again in 1917, Wilson eventually asked for, and received, a declaration of war against Germany. The Yanks indeed did come and turned the tables of the conflict against the Axis powers and the war eventually came to an end.

 

By the way, the man who took Bryan’s place was Robert Lansing….no relation to the actor, seen here as Mr. Gary Seven from a famous Star Trek episode. The actor’s real name was Robert Howell Brown. He took his stage name from the town of Lansing, Michigan.

Today's Convective Outlook SPC

Surface Forecast Wednesday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  One certainty that shows up when looking at the vertical profile progs is that we will remain unstable for the next few days.  There is a boundary stalled to our north and so waves will run along the boundary and enhance the risk for rain and potentially the risk for strong storms.  As I had indicated previously,  a wave did in fact move to our north Wednesday morning with the appendage sticking down enough to provide some rain and t’storms just north of Louisville but not enough to engulf the entire area.  I’m supposing that as the wave moves by, the stationary boundary will sag a shade farther south in its wake.  So, the next waves that come along will track a bit farther South.  Timing and exact route of these waves will remain problematic and will probably only be known when they actually initiate storms.

Tornado Probability Through Thu AM

Nevertheless, the NAM puts a wave on us around Midnight Wednesday night.   The parameters are pretty healthy then and the NAM even ramps up the SWEAT index to near the 400 threshold for an enhanced twister risk.  It also has even stronger feedback for Thursday.  The GFS advertises more consistent rain chances throughout the day but takes its parameters highest throughout Thursday and even Friday.  Probably a pretty good idea to keep abreast of the weather the next few days.  By late Friday, the front is progged to sag South.  Some data suggests that another wave forms in the Southern Plains on Friday and moves it into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, thus dragging the front back our way.  Should that occur, then we may be vulnerable to more rain and possibly strong storms.  We’ll wait to see what happens. So, don’t panic, but keep your ears on.  Biggest risk the next few days will be for wind and hail but one cannot discount the tornado risk as super cells may pop up on an isolated basis.

Severe Hail Probability Through Thu AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
  

Severe Wind Probability Through Thu AM

 BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
   STATES…AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
   GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
   BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.
  
   AT THE SFC…A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE…FRACTURED IN
   A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION…EXTENDS FROM ERN
   CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK…AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.
   
  

Convective Outlook Thursday SPC

 TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
   INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY…2)
   PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
   LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT…AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
   RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK…AND
   DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.
  
   …SRN PLAINS…
   IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
   COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
   TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
   INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
   THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
   IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
  
   STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK…AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
   SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK…EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
   ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
   BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
   ACROSS WRN OK…AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
   MORNING.
  
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
   STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
   SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
   SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
   IN ADDITION TO WIND…LARGE HAIL…AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL…UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
   FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.
  
   …MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
   EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
   LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   ACROSS THE REGION ATTM…POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.
  
   …EAST…
   ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING…BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW…AND WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
   INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
   HOWEVER…SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
   MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.
  
   …HIGH PLAINS…
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
   WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
   FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
   DAYS…INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
   INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS…PRESENCE OF LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT…LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL ZONE…AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
   KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.
  
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/10/2009

Success Can Be an Enigma and or Come From a Code of Inspiration Where you Least Expect It May 24, 2009

 

Finding Success can be an Enigma...ask William Tell

 

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I guess Morse Ended Up Finishing His Lafayette Painting

On This Date in History:  In 1810, a young man graduated from Yale and immediately went to England to study art.  He created a giant painting and a small sculpture and called them both “the Dying Hercules.”  These were his most significant works and I suppose that he figured that was the best he could do and so he came home to America.  He decided to paint portraits for a living.  He had some works that were considered outstanding including one of Lafayette and other historical figures that were recognized for the extreme detail.  Among his portraits of famous people was one of Eli Whitney.  The young man gained a pretty big reputation but also was known as a man with a small income.  That makes me think that if he was such a big painter, then maybe he would figure out that he needed to charge more for his paintings.  I guess perhaps his reputation was good at the price he charged. Had he charged more, then maybe he wouldn’t have been so popular.  Well, its a good thing for him, and for the rest of the world, that he had other pursuits to relieve his creative mind.

The word “telegraph” derives from the Greek word, “to write far.”  Pretty good description.   Before there was electricity, there was a communication system that fit that description.  It was in the form of tall poles that put up different arms and other signals.  It could be seen at a distance.  It was used during the Battle of Waterloo to let the folks know back in London what was going on with the struggle against Napoleon.    I suppose that has its use but for long distances, you probably would need a series of big poles with a guy hanging around each one and waiting for a signal to be seen from one direction so he could then relay it to someone in the other direction.  I suppose it was better than nothing and probably faster than relying on a guy on a horse, like Paul Revere…though Paul was pretty fast and he could travel at night, which obviously was a limitation for this early form of “telegraph.”

1844 First Telegraph Receiver

So, along comes electricity.  Now, a bunch of inventors had figured out the basic principals involved but it was left to the somewhat successful American painter, Samuel Finley Breese Morse, to understand the practical application of those principals and the first to take pragmatic steps to invent a way to take exploit those principals.  While at Yale, Morse had taken a keen interest in electricity but was lured by his love for art.  He studied under Benjamin West and Washington Allston, who were considered two of the better painters of the day.  He got married in 1818 but, while he was working on his painting of the Marquis de Lafayette, he got news his wife died.  He left the painting unfinished and became an artistic recluse in his grief.  But an odd thing happened, in his grief, he rediscovered his interest in electricity.   He attended some lectures of academics but eventually returned to art.

William Cullen Bryant by Morse

In 1829, he went back to Europe to study art.  Had he not done that, he may never had received the inspiration of the telegraph.  You see…in 1832 he was on board a ship returning to America when he came upon some scientists who were discussing the properties of electricity.  One man queried whether electricity lost its velocity over a long distance.  When another remarked that in Ben Franklin’s experiments, he had noted that a captured electrical current traveled over several miles of wire without any time differential as the reaction at the end of the wire  seemed to be coincidental with the intialization of the current.  That statement triggered the small spark of inspiration in Sam Morse’s head.

Old Sam Looks Like a Decorated Warrior

That left Morse with a tough choice.  If he wanted to immerse himself in electricity, then he had to give up painting but, with no painting, he had no income.  He was already rather poor, often skipping meals for extended periods or depending on the help from friends.  In 1835, he was granted a teaching position in the Art Department of the State University of New York.  That gave him access to the facilities and faculty at the University and afforded him the opportunity to expand his electrical research.  With the help of a colleague, he made numerous successful experiments and developed a code of communication, known today as the Morse Code.  In 1842, Morse went to Washington to build a telegraph line.  In early 1843, he convinced Congress to grant him $30,000 to build a line from Washington to Baltimore.   An finally, on this date in 1843, Samuel F.B. Morse demonstrated his telegraph to the world.  His friend, Miss Ellsworth, came up with the first words to be transmitted.  It was “What Hath God Wrought?”  Indeed…what?  It was the beginning of the information age that eventually progressed from communications by telegraph to radio to television and now the internet.  All because a painter became heartbroken by his wife’s death and because he had run off to Europe as part of his grief. 

I suppose, this might be an example of “don’t give up.”  Difficult situations today might make you say “why me?” or make you angry.  But, it could be that circumstance that proves necessary for your later success and happiness.

Japanese Model Thinks We Get 2-3 inches of rain This week

Weather Bottom Line:  Pretty much status quo in the weather department with several question marks.  First, we remain warm and humid.  Rain chances will be in the picture for the entire week.  Afternoon showers and t’storms will be scattered about with the determining factor of the frequency and area coverage dependent on afternoon heating and little upper disturbances wandering through.  Those are so numerous and so random there is great difficulty to determine exactly when or where they will show up.  But, they will be around and so that will maintain the expectation of scattered stuff.  I would not think that any of them will be particularly tough, but given the amount of moisture in the air, if you find yourself under one, there will be the potential for heavy rain in spots.

A front is supposed to get close midweek, though it’s tough to determine if it comes through or if it washes out or goes on the retreat.  It really won’t change much.  There is somewhat of a consensus from the models concerning what was left of the quasi tropical low that came ashore in Mississippi.  It is moving past us to the Soutwest today and is responsible for the elevation in humidity.  It will move into the Southern Plains and join up with a front sliding down.  I would keep an eye on Thursday night or Friday.  Most public forecasts have Friday dry but I”ve got some model data that says otherwise and its not unusual for fronts to move slower than the foofs on TV think as we head into the summer.  Either way, depending on the timing I might suspect some action that may be worthwhile.  We’ll see how it shakes out.  Have a good Memorial Day.