Not All Floods Can Be Blamed On The Beaver
June 9, 2010

How Can This Little Guy Be Blamed For Anything

Moravia Could Not Escape the Flood Waters

Recently, parts of Europe have received a large amount of rain which has caused problems.  The Prague Post reported that late May floods in the Czech Republic has had the worst flooding since 2002 and points out that the financial cost of the floods is doing nothing but creating a potentially bigger financial crisis in that nation.   In Poland, the flooding took 15 lives and the comparisons there are to the flooding scenario of 1997.   Apparently, after that flood event, the country made infrastructure changes to build up flood defenses.  As it turns out, some of the efforts have failed.  Oh…it’s not being blamed on poor engineering or construction or government regulation or public officials taking bribes.  No, the flooding in Poland is  blamed on beavers.   The estimate is that over 50,000 beaver live in Poland and they enjoy a measure of protection, according to animal welfare services.  

Flooding In Poland Caused by Beavers, Not Too Much Rain?

Now, for a long time I have wondered why it is that human activity is considered to not be natural when that activity changes ecosystems but the behavior of other mammals is thought to be natural.  Beavers necessarily transform and change ecosystems.  Beavers will build a dam.  That dam produces a lagoon.  That lagoon eventually fills up with sediments and a meadow is created.  What had been a flowing creek or small river tends to be destroyed by the beaver dam and a new ecosystem that supports different types of wildlife is created from the transformation.  That is considered natural whereas when man builds a dam and changes an ecosystem, it’s not natural.  Hmm.  In any event, man built these flood defenses in Poland and now the beaver has been digging holes.  When they dig their tunnels into the sides of levees, it weakens the flood control structure and the result has been that, with swollen rivers, some of the flood defenses have failed.  So, in response, authorities are upping the hunting quota on the beaver.  The “unnatural” activity of man building levees are winning out against the “natural” activity of the beaver, which has been destroying and recreating ecosystems for as long as they have been around. 

Cars No Haven From Floods In Rapid City June 1972

Debris From Homes Against A Bridge

On This Date In History: When flooding occurs in the US and dams or levees fail, the first thing that we tend to do is blame someone.   That someone is never wildlife like the friendly beaver.  Typically, its some corporate malfeasance, corrupt government official or lack of governmental regulation that is at the root of the evil.  Rarely do we put the cause of any event, where more often than not it should reside,  at the feet of the laws of Physics.  Sometimes, it’s no one’s fault and you can’t blame it on the beavers.

Gaging Station Records Along Rapid Creek June 1972

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota. A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours. Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable. During that time, some ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprang up.   Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain. On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came and the deluge continued throughout the Rapid Creek Valley.  Some 10-15 inches of rain fell over the Rapid Creek watershed.  At the time, media reports claimed that the Pactola structure failed.  It did not.  In fact,  post analysis estimates are that the flood control project actually saved lives and damage as it reduced the flow to the Canyon Lake resevoir.  Now the dam at Canyon Lake was the one that got into trouble. A bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam. The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City.   Over 4 days,  16000 acre feet of water rolled through Rapid City and the flooding resulted in the loss of 238 lives.   Most of the homeowners had no insurance.   Today the dam has been rebuilt. I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today.   There’s one big difference.   There is no residential community in the flood plain any more.   Today it’s a golf course.  

Only Slabs Remained Where Houses Had Been

The 1972 Rapid City Flood has been revisited numerous times.  As it turns out, most of the rain fell between the Pactola Resevoir and the city.  In an effort to try and prevent a similar tragedy, studies were conducted but it was found that the geology precluded the construction of other dams.  The conclusion was that the best course of action was to create a  ”greenway” or park system in the flood plain.  Hence, no more homes and business.    It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events and how shortsighted we were in doing some things, like putting homes in a flood plain.   I really wasn’t anyone’s fault though.  Sometimes, things just happen that are beyond man’s grasp.  I guess building houses in that area was a good idea back when it was first proposed.  It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”  Or, as in the case of Poland, the beaver did the disposing.

LMK Rain Total Map for Louisville Area June 9, 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  Things worked out as advertised…at least on these here pages.  We had some fairly heavy rain with a fair amount of thunder and lightning and it happened well after midnight.  I got waken up about 3:39 AM on Wednesday.  Rain totals were generally from .75″ to 1.50″.  It was a little more substantial in spots than I might have anticipated but I was mainly focused on the severe threat which I was not too enthused about as the timing came about as I expected.  Look for fog Thursday morning.  This front really didn’t bring much in the way of drier or even cooler air.  So, the dewpoints are not that low and with the moisture from the rain..fog.  We will be in the upper 80′s to low 90′s to wind up the week before we get another t’storm chance for the weekend.

Hope and Change? Russians Say US is Marxist, Obama New Gorbachev! Rapid City 1972 Flood
June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation. Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho? When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota. A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours. Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable. Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up. Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain. On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam. The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City. Some 238 people lost their lives that night. Most of the homeowners had no insurance. Today the dam has been rebuilt. I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today. There’s one big difference. There is no residential community in the flood plain any more. Today it’s a golf course. It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed. It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook for June 10 2009

SPC Convective Outlook for June 10 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  This is an update to similar post earlier.  The story is about the same though the SPC expanded the severe risk area markedly.  I suspect this is in response to the divergence in model solutions as there is a consistency of a strong short rolling around to the north and then that secondary short moving out of the plains and into the region.  But, its very difficult to nail down exactly where the second short will go and even the extent of the northern, stronger short.  Guess here is that the enhanced humidity level, warm conditions and increased instability will lend itself to supporting strong storms wherever the kicker short comes through.  Otherwise, there will be the risk of scattered convectively induced activity.  While I’m still of the mind that the secondary short may be mainly south of our area, I have some concern of the extent of the instability of the northern short.  Further, the secondary short may very a shade from my suspicions and so a variance of say 30 miles at initiation will make a lot of difference downstream.  Tornadic threat would most likely be minimal as support conditions for such activity will probably be limited, but local conditions can always produce some monkeybusiness.  Biggest threat will be for hail and strong winds dragged down from aloft.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK/KS EWD INTO THE MID
   OH/TN VALLEY REGION…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED/WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD…BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
   OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FASTER WSWLY FLOW…SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE ENEWD…CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD ZONE OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOCUSED INVOF A SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO LIE
   FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
  
   …KS/OK EWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS…
   SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM ERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO
   THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION…AS AT LEAST TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION/MCS
   SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN
   VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD.  SEVERE POTENTIAL –
   PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — WITH THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KY/TN AND VICINITY THROUGH
   THE DAY…ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
   PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W ACROSS SRN MO AND
   INTO ERN KS/ERN OK…QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING BOTH AIRMASS QUALITY
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SWD/CONVECTIVELY-ALTERED LOCATION OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. 
  
   ATTM…IT APPEARS THAT SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS
   SRN MO AND VICINITY…IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR
   CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.
    NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH
   SOME WWD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER IN THE DAY WITHIN
   THIS REGION OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.  WITH MODERATELY-STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD…AMPLE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
   STORMS — WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   LIKELY.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IF
   CELLULAR STORM MODE COULD BE MAINTAINED…MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL
   WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — ESPECIALLY WITH LIKELY
   EVOLUTION INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS THROUGH THE EVENING. 
  
   …N TX SWWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND REGION…
   THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH MODERATE
   WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW…AND THUS IN HANDLING OF THE SURFACE PATTERN
   ACROSS TX.  THE NAM — WITH A WEAK FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS W
   TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON — DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX
   BIG BEND…AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SELYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NRN AND WRN TX.  MEANWHILE…THE GFS PROGS A STRONGER FEATURE TO
   MOVE OUT OF NM AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   THUS — THE GFS SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER SWRN OK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON…WITH MUCH MORE VEERED/SWLY SURFACE WINDS S OF THE LOW
   OVER THE WRN HALF OF TX BEHIND AN EWD-MIXING DRYLINE.
  
   THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
   THE NAM SCENARIO…WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
   PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITHIN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
    ATTM…WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION — WHICH WOULD BE FOR A
   LESSER SEVERE THREAT WITH LESS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER E.
    WHILE A 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED…WILL SHIFT
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY WWD AS A HEDGE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
   NAM SCENARIO.
  
   …MID-ATLANTIC REGION…
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXPECTED ACROSS
   VA/NC AND VICINITY.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE
   MODEST…PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE
   SURFACE TROUGH — ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND.
   CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
  
   ..GOSS.. 06/09/2009

Russian Press: U.S. A Marxist Nation, Obama New Gorbachev; Remember When Rapid City Washed Away?
June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

 A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist NationWhich Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho?  When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota.  A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours.  Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable.  Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up.  Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain.  On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam.   The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City.  Some 238 people lost their lives that night.  Most of the homeowners had no insurance.  Today the dam has been rebuilt.  I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today.  There’s one big difference.  There is no residential community in the flood plain any more.  Today it’s a golf course.  It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed.  It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook June 10, 2009

SPC Convective Outlook June 10, 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  The strong storms that the SPC was looking for near our area did stay together on Monday evening.  But, they tracked south toward Paducah.  Snow White and I took the time to scull on Monday and my friend Bob Crane was on hand to watch me get all bent out of shape because the foot pads were in the wrong place and my seat kept coming off the runners.  Snow White chastised me for my choice of verbiage, which I also used when I almost tipped over on the river when the waves picked up.  Bob Crane laughed and the turtles were silent.

With humidity levels increasing, we may get an isolated t’storm or two on Tuesday afternoon.  But,  Wednesday,  there will be a shortwave wandering through the flow from the plains.  The track of the short will be the key but it is possible that we may see an enhanced risk for t’storms.  Preliminarily, the SPC has us in the slight risk area.  Won’t be surprised to see it miss us to the south and be in a fading mode, as the Canadian and GFS 12Z model runs suggest.  However, the NAM creates a huge shortwave right over  the top of us which means on Wednesday night we’d get some action.   I’m a little skeptical though because the NAM’s solution has this thing blowing up late in the day instead of fading.  Nevertheless, it is worth noting and watching. 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE OH
   VLY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SRN STREAM TROUGH
   ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SWRN STATES AND PROMINENT NRN BRANCH UPR LOW
   ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  A FAIRLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE FORMER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS…PHASING WITH THE NRN UPR LOW BY WEDNESDAY
   AFTN/EVE.  RESULTANT BAND OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ENE
   ALONG A SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD RESIDE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO
   THE OH VLY REGION.  THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR EPISODIC TSTM
   CLUSTERS…SOME SVR FOR THE MID-WEEK PD.
  
   …SRN PLNS TO THE OH VLY…
   ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VLY AT 12Z WED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-OH VLY WITH TIME.  SVR THREAT WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE WHERE PERSISTENT SSWLY
   LLJ TRANSPORTS A WARM/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO THE MID-MS
   VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.  AT THE SAME TIME…RELATIVELY
   WARM MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR…PROVIDING A CAP.
  
   WHILE HEATING ALONE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP…AS
   AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHTS FALLS SPREAD ENE…TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   INVOF A SFC LOW/FRONT FROM IL/IND BY MID-AFTN…THEN EXPAND SWWD
   ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF OK.  OTHER STORMS
   MAY FORM SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF NWRN/WCNTRL TX.
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   HIGH WINDS/HAIL. 
  
   FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
   ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.  HERE…WSWLY LLVL FLOW WILL FEED ANY TSTM
   CLUSTERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH BACKBUILDING/ELEVATED STORMS
   POSSIBLY CONTAINING HAIL.
  
   ..RACY.. 06/08/2009

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