Speed Killed Casey Jones; Speed Will Win the Kentucky Derby April 30, 2010

John Luther Jones: Man, Myth, Legend

Casey Jones' Legend Etched in Stone

On This Date in History:   John Luther Jones was born on March 14, 1863 in Missouri while the  Civil War was in full swing.  In 1876, the family moved to Cayce, Kentucky.   John Luther  was over 6’4″ tall and had gray eyes and dark hair.  He loved trains since he was a young boy and his fascination with the iron horse only increased as he watched them come and go from the Cayce depot.  He was born during the Civil War and in 1878, at the age of 15, he took a job with the Mobile and Ohio Railroad as a telegrapher and six years later moved to Jackson, TN where he continued with the Mobile and Ohio as a flagman.   

John Luther "Casey" Jones

 

When he moved to Jackson, the men with whom he worked asked where he was from.  Locally, Cayce was pronounced with two syllables so the men started calling him “Casey” Jones.  In 1884, he married Miss Mary Joanna ”Janie” Brady who was the daughter of the woman who ran the boarding house in which he resided in Jackson.  The couple settled down in Jackson and had three children together.  Casey was not a drinking man and was thought to have been devoted to his family.  He certainly was devoted to railroading because in fairly short order, he was promoted first to brakeman by the Mobile and Ohio and then to firemen.  His big break came through the misfortune of others.  A yellow fever epidemic struck and the illness took its toll on the crews of the Illinois Central Railroad.  With a shortage of experienced people, the Illinois Central provided a unique opportunity for rapid advancement of firemen to engineers.   So,  Jones left the only company for which he had ever worked and went to the greener pastures of the Illinois Central.  

Sim Webb lived to tell the tale

 

In March 1888 he started work for his new employer and on February 23, 1891 Casey Jones became an engineer for the Illinois Central Railroad.  He developed a reputation for his fierce desire to always be on time.  His reputation for punctuality was so well known it is said that people could set their watch by the passage of his train.  He also developed a distinct style of operating the steam whistle.  Janie Jones said, “he established a sort of trade mark for himself by his inimitable method of blowing a whistle. It was a kind of long-drawn-out note that he created, beginning softly, then rising, then dying away almost to a whisper. People living along the Illinois Central right of way between Jackson and Water Valley would turn over in their beds late at night and say: ‘There goes Casey Jones,’ as he roared by.”   

The Skipper (Alan Hale, Jr) Was Casey Jones in Short Lived 1958 TV Show

 

Now, the Illinois Central had a passenger run from Chicago to New Orleans which involved 4 different trains.  Jones was given engine number 638 for the Memphis to Canton, MS link.  This service came to be known as a “Cannonball Run,” which was a generic term for fast or express passenger and freight trains.  Keep in mind that Jones did not like to be behind schedule and he had already been deemed a hero for his 1895 rescue of a little girl.  Jones had been doing maintenance work on the engine when he saw some kids dart in front of the locomotive.  All crossed the track except the one girl who froze on the tracks as the train approached.  Jones supposedly perched himself atop the cowcatcher and snatched the child from the tracks as the train approached.   

Casey Jones' Illinois Central Engine 638

 

At 10 PM on April 29, 1900, Casey Jones’ pulled his train behind engine 638 into the Canton station and, when he was ready to go home, he heard someone say that engineer Joe Lewis was ill and could not take out the engine 382 for the return trip to Memphis.   Jones volunteered to take on the duty.  By the time they left at 12:50 AM,  he was already more than an hour and a half behind schedule so he had his fireman, Sim Webb, ”open it up.”   Casey had a reputation for going too fast and  I suppose that’s how he made sure that he kept his schedule.   This night was no different.   At times that night,  John D’Angelo of virtual railroader says it’s entirely possible that the “Cannonball” reached speeds close to 100 mph.  Jones came upon a freight train on a side track and so Jones reduced his speed to a still rapid 50 mph as he intended to pass.  This particular freight train was long.  So long, in fact, that the rear cars were on the main track.  Casey figured that they would do as normal and that is ”sawing.”  As Jones train passed, the freight train would move forward so as to clear the rear cars from the main line prior to Jones’ engine 382 arriving.  The trouble was that the engineer of the freight train did not realize just how fast Casey Jones was moving and they did not move their freight train forward fast enough.   

Casey Jones Wreck Site 1900

 

As they came around a curve, Jones saw the freight cars on the track ahead and he shouted for Webb to jump.  As Webb lept to safety, Jones tooted his whistle and applied the brakes in vain.   Engine 382 of the Illinois Central Railroad plowed into the caboose of the freight train.  It is said that he had managed to slow his train down to 35 mph, thus saving all of the passengers but he was killed.  Sim Webb had landed in some bushes and was not injured.  Later ,he told Janie Jones, “that as I jumped Casey held down the whistle in a long, piercing scream. I think he must have had in mind to warn the freight conductor in the caboose so he could jump.”   The legend is that he was found with one hand clutching the whistle and the other the brake.   Casey Jones’ watch stopped at 3:52 AM  on this date in 1900 and his action is credited with saving the lives of all of the passengers.   In spite of the heroic lore that has followed his name, an investigation concluded that he was largely to blame for driving too fast.  

Saturday (Derby Day) Severe Weather Probability

 

HPC Rain total forecast estimate for Saturday (Derby Day)

 

Weather Bottom Line:  The Lentucky Oaks weather forecast and Kentucky Derby weather forecast could not be more different.  A frontal boundary is slowly plodding its way across the nation.  It will not arrive in Louisville in time to really affect that 136th Kentucky Oaks.  There is a very slight chance for a late afternoon isolated t’storm Friday afternoon but for the most part, it will be warm and breezy.  I think that it will be dry with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to perhaps the mid 80′s.  The data also suggests that conditions will still be favorable for all of the Kentucky Derby events for Friday night including the Brownstable-Brown Gala.  Previously, the data suggested rain chances increasing around midnight but the last few runs, all models have been holding off the rain until the 5AM to 7AM timeframe.  So, aside from late departures from the parties, it should be a fine night.  An unofficial Derby tradiition is cruising and the police have had issues over the years trying to control that activity.  This year should the cops should get some help from mother nature.  

HPC Sunday Forecast Rainfall Estimate

 

For Derby Day, rain will begin in the morning.  There is some disagreement on how much.  The 6Z NAM only throws out a half inch of rain into Saturday evening with most of that coming in the first half of the day.  The 6Z GFS though has about 2 inches of rain for the daylight hours of Saturday.  The Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center seems to split the difference and comes up with rain totals of 1.25 to 1.5 inches of rain for Saturday.   There is also a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday.  My biggest concern with this is that I think the best chance for tornadic activity will be in the same region of Arkansas and Mississippi that got hit with those brutal tornadoes last weekend.  What is going on is that there will be a shortwave moving up along the front through the Ohio Valley on Saturday morning.  Sensible weather wise, that should mean that after it passes, then rain chances diminish Saturday afternoon in Louisville.  While the jet streak moves to the northeast with the shortwave, there may still be sufficient jet stream venting to work with some afternoon heating to the mid to upper 70′s Saturday afternoon to trigger scattered rain and t’storms.  Obviously, the GFS is more bullish on this scenario.  I would not be surprised to see a wet track on Saturday but times of actual rain falling will be sporadic.  

SPC Sunday Severe Weather Outlook

 

Late Saturday, there will be another shortwave with the associated jet stream energy developing in the lower Mississippi Valley.  It should develop in such  a manner that a surface low will probably emerge.  It is in this developing area that the risk of tornadic activity will be its greatest.  As that low moves up along the front Saturday evening toward the Ohio Valley, a tremendous amount of moisture will be drawn up from the Gulf.  This entire system, in fact, is what is also drawing the oil in the Gulf of Mexico onto the Louisiana coast.  Rain chances will increase markedly on Saturday night with the risk of severe weather back in the picture.  My guess is that we would be talking about strong winds as the most likely threat for Sunday morning.  But, it’s the rain that has the attention of officials.  A Flood Watch is in effect for Saturday and Sunday in Louisville and I would not be surprised to see it extended through Monday morning as the NAM takes rain totals to nearly 5 inches by 7AM Monday and the GFS is closer to 4.5 inches.  The HPC is in line with these numbers as it adds another 3 to 3.5 inches for the Sunday AM to Monday AM timeframe.

Villified Corporate Bosses Sometimes Are Great Americans February 25, 2010

Union Pacific Stock Certificate Artwork Symbolized Innovation and Progress of E.H. Harriman

"Think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?"

On This Date in History:  Do you remember the movie, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?   It starred Robert Redford as Sundance and Paul Newman as Butch.  It had some amusing scenes and some were actually based on some true events, though maybe not events associated with Butch Cassidy.  For instance, there was the great scene in which the Hole in the Wall Gang try to rob a train.  Woodcock was the man inside the car and he had been held up by Butch and Sundance before.   So, the second time, he refuses to open the door of the car and Butch uses dynamite to blow the door only to blow up the entire car.  Sundance asks, “think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?”  Well, I suspect that this type of event really happened only it was an event in the life of whom I called the worst outlaw in the old west, Al Jennings.  Now, part of the comedic aspects of these train robberies was Woodcock’s outspoken loyalty to Mr. E. H. Harriman.  As it turns out, E. H. Harriman was indeed a real person and a very powerful and influencial man.

Union Pacific Fell Hard and Fast After Triumph At Promontory, Utah in 1869

Episcopal minister Orlando Harriman and his wife, Cornelia Neilson, brought Edward H. Harriman into the world in Hempstead, New York on this date in 1848.  Young Edward hated school, dropped out at age 14 and became a broker’s boy.  He amazed the stock brokers at his ability to pick stocks.  By the time he was 21, he had his own seat on the stock exchange.   He got interested in railroads when he tried to revive some distressed rail lines owned by his wife’s relatives.  He apparently was the type of man who dove into his projects because he became very astute when it came to managing rail flow as well as the technological aspects of steam locomotion.  He also seemed to enjoy the challenge of rehabilitating depressed railroads.   So, he moved on to a more ambitious project: saving the Union Pacific Railroad.

Harriman Rebulding the Union Pacific in 1899

The Union Pacific had been one of the railroads that completed the transcontinental railroad.  But, by 1897, it was but a shadow of its former self as its equipment fell into disrepair, the business had become extremely inefficient and in general was behind the times.  In about a decade, E. H. Harriman had turned the Union Pacific into one of best run railroads and companies in the nation.  As part of his revival of the Union Pacific, he gobbled up weaker railroads in the West and Southwest in order to maximize profits and efficiency.  His business created a concentration of power in the transportation business that was vital to the American economy.  That got the attention of the great “trust buster” President Theodore Roosevelt.  He sued Harriman and the Union Pacific for violation of anti-trust laws and the US Supreme Court ordered that Harriman divest in 1904. 

Railroad Was A Wreck Until Harriman

Because Harriman adamently refused to explain his rationale, he is viewed in history as a robber baron who only wanted to make more money for himself at the expense of others.  But, like John D. Rockefeller, Harriman went about his business in an effort to maximize efficiency and a more efficient transportation system was a benefit to the economy and the nation as a whole. He didn’t buy railroads for a quick profit but instead believed that a more efficient operation and improvement to the railroad property would maximize profitability.  It can be argued that monopolies are the most efficient way to bring a product or service to the public but, that is dependent on having an honorable person at the helm.  However, pragmatically, the temptation to take advantage of the opportunities presented by a monopoly is extreme and the risk involved is just  too great to allow that to happen as a matter of  normal business.    Rockefeller defended his position and left a large portion of his enormous fortune to build the University of Chicago and the Rockefeller Institute and also greatly improve education of minorities in the South. 

John Muir Painted A Different Picture of E. H. Harriman

Harriman did not defend himself and, regardless of what he did, is largely remembered as an evil Robber Baron.  Nevertheless, had someone like Harriman not come along and improved the transportation system, the American marketplace and economy may not have evolved as quickly and with such gusto as it did from the late 19th century into the 20th century.  Harriman established standards for locomotives, cars, bridges, structures, signals, and even such items as paint and stationery.  And, he spearheaded an expedition to Alaska in 1899 that brought valuable knowledge to the science community.   He probably should be praised, not buried.  Naturalist John Muir, who founded the Sierra Club, wrote this about Harriman:

“Comparatively few have gained anything like adequate knowledge of the extent and warmth of his sympathies, but none who came nigh him could fail to feel his kindness, especially in his home, radiating a delightful, peaceful atmosphere, the finest domestic weather imaginable. His warm heart it was that endeared him to his friends, but in almost every way he was a man to admire—in apparent repose brooding his work plans, or in grand, overcoming, enthusiastic action shoving them forward, rejoicing and influencing all the country like climate; when silent in company, or at long intervals giving out something striking, saying the commonest things in unforgettable ways and making them seem uncommon in the new light flashed upon them; when severe and rigid as fate; or merry in friendly conversation, eye striking eye, thought clashing against thought making wit sparkles fly.” 

Does that sound like the Robber Baron presented to us in history?  Often, labels given by historians or popular culture do not fit the man.

Early Afternoon Saturday NAM Shows Low to Mid 30's....Dont Look For a Warm Up

NAM Nudges Us Over 32 by early Afternoon Despite less than 5400 thickness

Weather Bottom Line:  Now, yesterday, I told you that I am a bit handicapped by not having access to a Skew-T/Log P diagram, though I may have said Log P/Skew T.  This would be helpful as general rules of thumb come into conflict with reality when we have a change of seasons.  It’s good to be able to analyze what is happening.  So, I often have to rely on experience.  For instance, I saw forecasts for Wednesday that called for highs of 36, 37 or 38 degrees.  Now, a rule of thumb is that freezing conditions can generally be found when there is a 1000mb – 5oomb thickness of 5400 meters or less.  Different times of year and other variables mess that up but, in this case, we are still in winter, the forecast was for cloudy skies and with light snow or flurries all day which would tend to drag cold air down.  The thickness forecast for the models had it going from 5230 mb to 5130 mb.  I could not figure out how in the world we would get above freezing if all of those factors came to pass.  For all practical purposes, we did not.  The high at the almost always warmer than everyone else airport was 33 and that was at 12:39 AM.  The low was 27 at 1:25 pm and we stayed in the upper 20′s for most of the day.  So, its stuff like this that often causes my puzzlement.

Our Adopted "Paintbrush" Fits the Bill

Anyway, I had surmised that we we’d have light snow all day but because it fell over a long period, accumulations would not be an issue and that was correct, though I think most people got more than the trace of snow reported at the airport.  Now, by Wednesday evening, we had some decent light snow bands coming through and the ground became covered in snow and the roads slick in spots.  It was enough for Snow White to go out and cover up our adopted outdoor kitty cat, Paintbrush, though she refrained from using the expensive robe I gave her and instead used fleece blankets.  That has got to be the most pampered stray cat of all time.  He gets all the food he wants, has time to chase birds or the ladies at his leisure and can return to a pampered bed.

Early Sun AM, GFS has freezing line well south and wrap around moisture from Low in New England over Ohio Valley. Doesn't look like the 40's to me.

The outlook continues to be cold.  That little warm up we had last weekend was simply an fluke and the pattern shows no signs of changing.  Over the next couple of days, the thicknesses do increase a bit and we get sunshine.   So, even though after lingering snow flurries or light snow early Thursday the thickness only rises to about 5300 meters, we get some sunshine so that should get us to 34 or 35, if the sun does show up.  So, that call has some merit.   After that though, through the weekend, its hard to draw a conclusion to support temperatures much beyond 40.  I mean….maybe some of the forecasts that I see of 43 or 44 come about, but I don’t get it.  In fact, there is a big fat snow snowstorm that you will hear about because it bombs out going up the east coast, stops off of New York Harbor and then backtracks into New England where it stays put.  Parts of the Northeast should get buried in a couple of feet of snow and David Letterman will probably be talking about weekend snow on Monday night.  I suspect that storm will help drag down cold air for the weekend, perhaps some clouds and maybe even some flurries or weak light snow bands.  So…I don’t get how we get to 40.  After that, there had been indications of a potential event around here…first it was snow then it looked like maybe a severe outbreak in the southern plains, but now some indications are that the big trof in the east persists and we get nothing like that.  I’m guessing that the longer range models are having a conflict between reality and the climate parameters built into the programming.  For that reason, long range modeling will probably be in flux and the data largely unreliable.  Eric…that is your answer.

Financial Scandal Rocks Congress; Tropical Storm Laura in Ireland? October 1, 2008

Tropical Storm Laura a Wild Irish Rose?

Louisville weather: The front came through Monday night and brought a little more rain than anticipated. Instead of a quarter inch being an exception it was more of the rule with isolated instances of up to a half inch. Good, we needed it. A vort lobe rotating around the low will bring some clouds on Wednesday and hold down the temperatures to the low to mid 60′s. Maybe a couple of insignificant brief light showers but thats about it. We stay cool through Friday morning. Still won’t be surprised to see outlying areas around 40. But we warm up heading into the weekend and Saturday night a warm front comes through with increasing clouds and perhaps some shower activity. But that feature will not spoil weekend afternoon activities. In short, the cool down won’t last too long as we continue to warm up heading into early next week.

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Track 0930 5pm

Tropical Storm Laura: Tropical Storm Laura was a “subtropical storm” for awhile but then the boys that the NHC discovered that its structure was looking very tropical like and the temperatures aloft in the center were not all that cold so, even though its way north, they decided to make it a tropical storm. I see a broad central core on the satellite but also a lot of stuff that looks more like a cold-core low. This guy is not going to be tropical for long. Remember how Bertha went to Iceland and, more recently, Kyle went to New Brunswick and Quebec? Well, Laura is heading to Ireland! It should go back to subtropical status or more likely become a extratropical storm pretty quickly but it will still lash the green island with about 50 or 60 mph winds, rough seas and heavy rain. As I’ve said before, this is not a sign of global warming. Its a sign of nature doing its thing. The role of tropical cyclones is to transport heat and moisture from tropical regions to higher latitudes and these storms are performing beautifully. Don’t be fooled by reports that are sure to come that will erroneously point to global warming as the culprit. There may be other evidence that support global warming, but these storms (as well as Katrina) ain’t it. The National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion is at the bottom of the post.

They Did The Work But Who Made the Money?

On This Date In History: Financial problems are all in the news these days, but it’s nothing new. In recent years there was Enron but back in the 19th Century, there was the Credit Mobilier Construction Company. This is a pretty complex story but we’ll try to shorten it to the principal. (here’s a link to the details)

The US Government was keenly interested in building a transcontinental railroad. But, investors were not too enthused because the risks were enormous and investors don’t like a lot of risk. Two companies were formed to operate the railroads, the Central Pacific and the Union Pacific. The owners of the railroads both determined that the more likely road to profits were in construction rather than the actual operation. To ensure that they would make money, the two companies came up with a scheme in which they formed their own construction companies, which in turn charged the railroads to lay the track. That way, the railroads could get money from the government through subsidies and other incentives and then get paid again from the railroad. On top of that, they overcharged the railroads for the construction. On top of that, they bribed members of Congress with shares of stock and money. On this date in 1867, the contract between the Mobilier Contruction Company and the Union Pacific Railroad was completed which ended up paying $94 million for 1038 miles of track that probably should have cost about $50 million. Who got left holding the bag? The American taxpayer.

In the ensuing investigation brought to light by the New York Sun in an effort to unseat President US Grant, it was found that the owners of Credit Mobilier owned 367,000 shares of Union Pacific that had cost them virtually nothing. So, Congress investigated and couldn’t find much since there were dummies created to shield the identity of individuals and deals were done in such convoluted and secretive ways the investigators were flummoxed. Future president James A Garfield, House Speaker Schuyler Colfax and Massachusetts Congressman Oakes Ames were implicated. Ames received a censure from the Congress but, the government sued the Union Pacific for damages and the US Supreme Court ruled in 1878 that “more unmitigated frauds were never perpetrated on a helpless corporation by its managing directors.” Nevertheless, the court also ruled that since the government had received “all the advantages for which it has bargained” (I suppose the railroad got built) then there were no damages and therefore was not entitled to a thing.

So, there you have it….I’ve reported to you before about a financial panic with collapsing banks and a rescue plan in 1907…and now I’ve reported to you about how taxpayers got jobbed when the government got involved in private business enterprise. Politicians and tv foofs like to toss around the “great depression” at the drop of a hat and it concerns people, as it should. But, before you get too worked up about the current situation, be comforted that these things have happened before and it didn’t result in depression or huge long term disaster.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL122008 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 A 1653 UTC

CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE CONFIRMS THAT LAURA STILL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT. IN ADDITION…THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM’S CENTRAL FEATURES HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING SO THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH LAURA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE…VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME THERMAL ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR STRATUS CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT… AND LAURA COULD BE FULLY NON-TROPICAL IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 21C AND IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCE…SO SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER…BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES…AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. LAURA IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT 010/12. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…BUT AFTER THAT LAURA IS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A 120-HOUR POSITION IS NOT GIVEN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE IT WOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN OVER THE NORTH SEA…AND THE LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN ANYWAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 42.3N 48.6W 50 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 45 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 01/1800Z 46.8N 46.8W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 02/0600Z 50.0N 45.1W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 02/1800Z 53.1N 42.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 03/1800Z 56.5N 31.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 04/1800Z 57.0N 17.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 05/1800Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH