Obama Declares Swine Flu National Emergency; Has 1918 Spanish Flu Returned? October 25, 2009

1918 Spanish Flu Ward-Is History Repeating?

The CDC reports in week 41, 12000 specimens were tested and nearly 5000 came back positive.  The number hospitalizations has risen from less than 500 to over 2500 in the past 7 weeks with a jump of about 67% in the past week alone.  The number of weekly deaths has gone from just over 25 7 weeks ago to nearly 100 in the past week with a week 40 to week 41 jump of about 30%.

H1N1 Cases Increasing Rather Rapidly

President Obama has declared a National Emergency regarding the Swine Flu outbreak.  This may come as a surprise to many Americans as it seems that we have been led to believe that the whole issue of the H1N1 “Swine Flu” was just a bunch of hype and its not that bad.  The number of cases reported in the United States is relatively small but is rising pretty rapidly. 

H1N1 Hospitalizations/Deaths Rising

Those number don’t sound like much but, according to the Department of Homeland Security, the Spanish Flu of the early 20th century was also an H1N1 strain.  It is interesting because in the text, they also refer to the Spanish Flu as a swine flu.  Is it the same thing? Is it like Michael Myers and come back again?  It’s hard to say.  I’ve seen some analysis reports claiming its not the same as the Spanish Flu.   But, the CDC reported that the Swine Flu (H1N1) is now widespread in 46 states in the nation and that so far, 20,000 people have been hospitalized with over 1000 dead.  The report does say that is pretty typical for the height of the flu season in the US but, it’s not the height of the flu season yet.  That is typically expected between the end of November and early March.  See, it’s that kind of thing that has me concerned.  And the numbers provided are only for those cases tested.  Let us hope that it is indeed just a little more difficult flu than typical and we don’t end up facing the same thing that the world faced 91 years ago.

Spanish Flu Death Chart 1918-1919

On This Date in History: In 1918, World War I (The Great War) was winding down. The Americans had gotten into the game and helped turn the tide against the Hun. About 15-20 Million people died in that global conflict. But, toward the end of the war, another killer was unleashed. What has been called the Spanish Flu Pandemic took about 50 million lives world wide according to the CDC with some estimates as high as 100 million. It got the moniker “Spanish Flu” because it reportedly took 8 million lives in that country in May 1918. However, the origin of the flu is a bit murky and it probably was not Spain. Indeed, researchers today are still trying to learn more about it. A couple of sources claim that it started at Fort Riley, Kansas when a soldier became sick just prior to his shipping out to Europe in March 1918. But, a more reliable source (Stanford University) claims that the virus probably became mutated in China into a strain that was resistant to any treatment. While one of the first cases in the US was the soldier who went to Europe from Fort Riley, Kansas it wasn’t until August 18, 1918 that the killer strain came to the shores of the new world. The Norwegian Liner Bergensfjord arrived in Brooklyn with a full load of passengers, including 100 who became ill on the voyage. Four of those had died and a fifth died after the ship docked making that pour sole the first US death from the Spanish Flu.

In 1918 Healthy Measures Encouraged for War Production Sake, not Public Heatlh

In the fall and spring, people in the US were dying daily. One day in Philadelphia, 528 people died and the bodies were collected by horse drawn carts. On “Black Thursday” in Chicago, nearly 400 died. Schools and theatres were closed and it was common to see people wearing face masks. On October 23, 1918, 815 people died from the flu in New York City. On This Date in 1918, 6000 new flu cases were reported in Ohio alone.   Officials were considering banning in-home Halloween activities. 

 The war was certainly an aspect of the world situation that sped up the spread of the virus. Many allies thought it was some sort of biological warfare set loose by the Germans. Curiously, the end of the war in November 1918 may have hastened its spread as people took to the streets to congregate and party to celebrate, thus raising the prospcts of it going from person to person. In the US, the deathtoll has been set between 650,000 and 700,000. This article concerning the death of David Baltimore on this date in 1918 says that 200,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu in October 1918 alone.

Look at huge US Life Expectancy Drop in 1918

Here’s the kicker…no one knows why this flu was so fatal. It affected about 1/3 of the total world population. Even President Wilson came down with it. Recently, tissue from a dead soldier who died from the virus was collected in an attempt to better understand it. Mysteriously, the flu pandemic ended abruptly in 1919….though some sources claim 1920. Either way, it came and went and nothing has come close to it again in scale and scope of the suffering it brought. In the US alone, the life expectancy statistics (see chart at left)  fell by 10 years. Because of the mystery of the Spanish Flu pandemic relating to the virus itself, its origin, its spread and its disappearance, researchers today are quite concerned about something new, like the bird flu and the Swine Flue. It is the reason why such drastic measures were taken to try to stop any hint of the bird flu in Asia before it could get into the human population and why the Swine Flu got such huge media attention at the outset. 

Employees at Schools in 1918 Took No Chances

At first, officials were pretty aggressive but as the year went on, it seems that the Swine Flu has become the butt of jokes for comedians.  They even changed the name to H1N1 Flu; perhaps in deference to pig owners and perhaps to make it sound not so menacing.  But, I’ve had 5% of my students in my class hospitalized in the first two months of the school year.  It’s not even winter time and I’m only talking about the first two months of the semester.  These are 20-somethings…typically the least vulnerable to sickness.  I have to say, I’m a bit concerned that the public may be taking the potential threat too lightly.

Wednesday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  Weather looks great for Sunday.  Monday there is a slight weakness in the atmosphere that may produce a few showers but I think it will mainly just create some clouds.  Wednesday evening, I believe rain chances will be greatly enhanced and I wouldn’t be surprised to see thunderstorm activity show up and even possibly have the boys at the Severe Storms Prediction Center have some sort of designation for our area.  We’ll have to wait to see how it shakes out.

Nuclear Arms Negotiations, Talk of Reduction or Elimination is No Time for Laughing Gas October 16, 2009

 

Has the Time Come or is it a Bad Idea?

 

Tepperman Says Obama Should Learn to Love the Bomb

There is a body of opinion that claims that nuclear weapons actually bring peace as a stablizing force.  Jonathan Tepperman added recently to the list of those who  that present that argument.  After all, since the US dropped atomic bombs on Japan there have been no world wars and in 30 years prior to their use, there had been two that cost at least 60 million lives and did untold economic destruction. But, the trouble with nuclear weapons is that, if they are used, then the consequences are grave. I mean, aside from the destruction brought about by the use of one, the only real reaction a nation could have would be to retaliate with another nuclear weapon and then it could escalate from there. So, President Obama recently went beyond his earlier call for the reduction of nuclear arsenals in Russia and the United States by 80 percent, but also a more ambitious proposal to eliminate nuclear weapons from the earth altogether. Trouble with that is, how do you get everyone to agree, how can you be sure the other guys don;’t have them, what do you do if someone does have them and how wise is it for the United States to give up its “big stick.”

 

 

 

Missile Shield Plan Off The Board But Russia Doesn't Seem to Want to Respond

Now, the US and Russia are in negotiations regarding a new nuclear arms agreement.  The Obama administration already changed course from a Bush-era program that proposed a anti-missile shield based in Eastern Europe.  The Russians saw that as a threat and so said that they would use nuclear weapons if threatened.  The Obama administration recently cancelled the anti-missile shield for Eastern Europe, angering some of the Eastern Europeans and some members of NATO.  It was seen as an olive branch of sorts to the Russians.  Sometimes, the other guy doesn’t go along.  The Russians now say that they will reserve the right to make a pre-emptive nuclear strike if it feels threatened.  Perhaps unilateral decisions will eventually bear fruit, but so far its hard to see how anything has changed with the change from a European based missile shield for the NATO allies and the new proposal, which would be for a ship based system.  If it weren’t for the Iranian nuclear program, the North Korean nuclear program, the trouble in Pakistan and India which are both part of the nuclear club this might make one chuckle as we talk about arms reduction or nuclear weapons bans.  But, the only way one can laugh in this developing situation may be to get a dose of laughing gas…

 

1839 Laughing Gas Party

On This Date in History: In the first half of the 19th Century, performers went around the country

Party Time For the Lady?

performing acts that showed the side effects of nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas.” A Georgia physician, Dr. Crawford Long attended a party in which the foolishness took place and was asked by friends if he could make up a batch for their own private fun. Long suggested the use of ether instead as he found it quite suitable for the desired effects. At that point, all across the Peach State laughter at parties was heard of people chuckling at each others stumbling and bumbling while high on ether. Long’s interest was piqued. He noted how people didn’t feel any pain.

Dr William Morton Died Young

One of the fellow party makers was James Venable who had a tumor. Now, at the time, the pain associated with surgery was totally based on how fast the surgeon could do his work. So, Long convinced Venable to try out the gas before he had his tumor removed. He agreed and on March 30, 1842 the tumor was removed successfully without pain. But, Long did not publish his findings right away as he was not fully convinced. Long’s conservative approach was probably a good idea.

Dentist Horace Wells in Hartford, CT attended a laughing gas show and recognized the potential of nitrous oxide. So, he jumped the gun and took his case to the Massachusetts General Hospital where the demonstration promptly went asunder and Wells was ridiculed as a fraud. That led to Dr. William Morton.

Dr. Morton had worked with Dr. Wells and had learned of the promise of ether’s numbing properties from chemist Dr. Charles Jackson. He tried it out on some patients to much success and he too went to Massachusetts General Hospital. He said he had discovered a new wonder drug. What he really had was the very same ether that Wells had, but he camouflaged it with aromic oils so it would alter the oder. On October 16, 1846 the chief of surgery at Massachusetts General removed a neck tumor and also performed a leg amputation. The surgeries were pain free and the age of anesthetics was here. Morton patented the formula hoping to get rich.

Emory Univ. Hospital Named for Dr. Crawford Long

But, Jackson and his supporters claimed they were the true discoverers. Morton in 1868 went to New York to defend his position against supporters of Jackson. He had a seizure and died. Upon seeing Morton’s tombstone that gave Morton credit for anesthetic, Jackson went insane and spent the rest of his life in an asylum. Then we have the fate of Dr. Wells, who jumped the gun with his demonstration. He became addicted to chloroform and his mind eroded. He ended up in jail and somehow got ahold of chloroform, soaked a clothe in it and covered his face after opening up his arteries. He quietly and painlessly bled to death.

As for perhaps the true pioneer of the use of anesthetics, Dr. Crawford Long? The one who was not bold enough to publish his findings? He continued as a general practitioner until 1878 when he died making a house call. Perhaps his caution and conservative approach was reflective of his life as those who went for the fame and fortune all died in bizarre and untimely manners. I wonder if those 3 would think that it was worth it?

 

Sat Eve. Cold High Pressure Building In

 

 

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you that the weather was gonna be lousy.  Tough to make an argument concerning Global Warming these days.  The clouds, rain and cold air will persist through early Saturday with maybe even some sleet in spots prior to Sunrise Saturday.  The precip will be tapering off but it should remain cloudy on Saturday with highs having a tough time getting to 50.  High pressure builds in Saturday night and chases away the clouds but Sunday morning church could be frosty with many people in the low 30′s if not some upper 20′s in the northern part of the viewing area.   Sunshine Sunday helps us get to the mid 50′s.  The big trof that brought all of the unseasonably cold air to the eastern part of the country will be lifting out and we really ought to have very pleasant conditions through Wednesday with temps climbing Monday afternoon to the low 60′s, then mid 60′s on Tuesday and maybe even to 70 on Wednesday.

Flooding Takes Hundreds of Filipino Lives; US Press May Be Less Ignorant of Oregon Trail October 9, 2009

US Chinook Helicopters Bringing Aid to Disaster in Philippines Despite Silence in US News Media

This is a street in Rosales Township Where this guy found a manhole

While the news outlets covered the world reaction to the Nobel Peace Prize going to President Obama, the media seems almost oblivious to the plight of the Philippines.  The death toll and misery continues to rise in the wake of Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) that loitered around the nation, already reeling from the devastating flooding and nearly 300 deaths wrought by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  Though you may not hear about it on cable tv or the national news in the United States, the Philippines Flooding Photo gallery says it all.  This video of flooding in the Philippines from Parma was posted October 7…yet you heard nothing on the US News networks and very little in the papers. 

Click On Image For Latest Loop

For days, I had been saying that there was a very real possibility of this storm coming back to the Philippines after it went through the first time.  For some reason, there didn’t seem to be as much concern about this than I think there should have been.  Nevertheless, that is what happened and after it crossed just off the east coast and was downgraded to tropical depression, convection started to explode as it moved back to the west and extremely heavy rain fell on waterlogged parts of the northern Philippines.  The result is that officials are saying that flooding in the Pangasinan Province is the worst in 50 years.  Parts of the country are being called  giant rivers.  The death toll for the latest round of mudslides is up to 181 and will probably go higher.  That is on top of the 25 lives that  Typhoon Parma took during its first trip through and in addition to the deaths caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana a week before.  The total deaths in the Philippines from Ketsana and Parma now stands at over 540 and the toll on the economy will be staggering.  The last I saw, the UN had pledged $74 million in aid, or about one quarter of Alex Rodriguez’s contract.  The US is providing aid but its going to take more and will be interesting to see how a budget strapped global economy steps up. 

7 Day Rainfall NASA TRMM

Just yesterday, I had posted a story in which a few people had died from a landslide, including a worker who was out cleaning up from the previous storm.  I couldn’t believe it. I was wondering what they were thinking.  The 7 day Philippines rain total to the left from the NASA TRMM satellite shows how much rain has fallen and they knew that flooding was a very real possibility…yet they ignored the risk as a tropical cyclone remained almost over the  top of them. One spot in the Northern Philippines according to the NASA data reported 106.92mm (4.21″) of rain in the last 24 hrs, 203.37 mm (8.01″) in the past 72 hours and 399.33 mm (15.72″).  That is on top of the nearly two feet they got the week before.   I suspect that they got lulled into a sense of security because Parma had not dropped too much on them as it meandered across the second time and weakened.  But, with an island that small, it doesn’t take much for the center to get close enough to water for the convection to explode. It did and it’s no surprise.  Not saying that they could have done much but, it may have been a good idea to hold off on clean up until the danger had passed.

Parma Forecast Track (Pepeng Track)

Now, I’ve read some stories saying that the storm “may” be moving away from the Philippines.  I suspect that they put this qualifier because the “journalists” were just reading each other pronouncements of certitude based on  bogus speculation.  It was always a real possibility that the storm would come back.  This time, it is almost impossible for this guy to come back. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion)  It is offshore in the South China Sea and is moving west slowly.  The speed will pick up as a ridge of high pressure in China expands and drives the storm toward Vietnam, which will probably experience flooding, though Parma’s regaining intensity will most likely not take it back to Typhoon status, but instead back to a strong tropical storm.  While the environment is favorable for re-generation and Parma has amazingly maintained a good low level circulation, its probably going to hit SE Asia before it gets a chance to get all wound up again.

John Jacob Astor

On This Date in History: I’m sure many people have heard of the Oregon Trail but probably aren’t familiar with where it is except Oregon. In the early 19th Century, Lewis and Clark gained the blessings and financial support (Probably Not Constitutional) of President Jefferson. That paved the way for commerce with John Jacob Astor leading the way in the American fur trade. Again, it was Thomas Jefferson who encouraged Astor, who formed the Pacific Fur Company. Astor sent a man named Wilson Price Hunt to establish a base of operations and in 1811, Hunt followed the trail of Lewis and Clark to the Dakotas and then cut over land through Jackson Hole and eventually to the mouth of the Columbia River. They called the place Fort Astor.

The War of 1812 broke out and the Crown sent a warship to seize the fort. The guys in the fort figured out that they were in trouble so, being good businessmen, they sold the town to their British competitors. The North West Company purchased the fort, renamed it Fort George and the British gained control without firing a shot and presumably John Jacob Astor got some money for his trouble.

Did Ogden Have a Neck?

Just before the Brits took over the fort, a group of men led by Robert Stuart left Fort Astor for St. Louis. That party in 1812 was the first follow the Oregon Trail, though they did it in reverse. About 10 years later, the Northwest Fur Company merged with the Hudson Bay Company and a hellion with the Company named Peter Skene Ogden was used as a inspector of operations in the far west. He got the position probably to keep him out of the offices because in the past, he had tried to incinerate a campanion for fun, nearly beat a company officer to death and led an entire outpost in a mutiny. Ogden ended up knowing more about the west than anyone except for mountain man Jedediah Smith. Ogden’s explorations made its way to cartographers who made maps that paved the way for settlers to emigrate west over the Oregon Trail. I suppose that Ogden Utah got its name from this rough and nasty man of the west.

Ezra Meeker 1906

Ezra Meeker and Friend 1910

So, a bunch of people went west following the Oregon Trail. One was Ezra Meeker who took his family along the trail in 1852 and moved into the Washington Territory. What makes Meeker stand out was in an attempt to keep the history of the trail alive and honor the men who blazed it, Ezra Meeker got an ox and wagon and took the trail again, stopping often to give speeches and promote its importance in history. Meeker at the time was 75 years old. It was a tough trip and the ox died, but not Meeker. So enthused with his efforts, he did it again in 1910. In 1915 he traveled the route by automobile. And on this date in 1924, Ezra Meeker once again followed the trail that he first set out on 72 years earlier. This time he was 93 years old and this time he made the 1300 mile journey like a bird. He traveled by airplane. At age 98, he attempted to travel the trail by car again with the support of Henry Ford, but he died on December 3, 1928.

Recognize This View From Kindergarten Cop?

Fort Astor is today known as Astoria, Oregon and was the setting for the movie Kindergarten Cop. Meeker had his last oxen team slaughtered and mounted by a taxidermist and can be found today on display, still hooked to the wagon, at the Washington State Historical Society Museum in Tacoma. A commemorative coin was struck in the 1920′s and 30′s to commemorate Meeker and the trail. In the 1980′s, a computer game company put out “The Oregon Trail” game and had a default feature that listed Ezra Meeker in 5th place on the all-time scorer list with a score of 2052. Why they picked that score is a mystery to me.

I’ll tell you what…in the dictionary under “obsession” should be a picture of Ezra Meeker.

Weather Bottom Line:  A cold front will come through and leave us with a dry weekend, but it will be a cool weekend.  Look for highs in the upper 50′s and low 60′s with overnight lows in the upper 30′s and low 40′s.  It probably won’t be quite as cool as previous forecasts indicated as it looks like a wave will be coming out of the west which will prevent the cold air from completely spilling into the Ohio Valley and instead will bring another chance for rain early next week as another cold front comes through.  Perhaps the much chillier air will spill down then.  As it is, we will be cooler and fall like, and it looks like there is a pool of exceedingly cold air for the time of year just waiting for a chance to dive into the lower 48.

Russian Press: U.S. A Marxist Nation, Obama New Gorbachev; Remember When Rapid City Washed Away? June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

 A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation.  Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho?  When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota.  A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours.  Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable.  Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up.  Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain.  On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam.   The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City.  Some 238 people lost their lives that night.  Most of the homeowners had no insurance.  Today the dam has been rebuilt.  I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today.  There’s one big difference.  There is no residential community in the flood plain any more.  Today it’s a golf course.  It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed.  It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook June 10, 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  The strong storms that the SPC was looking for near our area did stay together on Monday evening.  But, they tracked south toward Paducah.  Snow White and I took the time to scull on Monday and my friend Bob Crane was on hand to watch me get all bent out of shape because the foot pads were in the wrong place and my seat kept coming off the runners.  Snow White chastised me for my choice of verbiage, which I also used when I almost tipped over on the river when the waves picked up.  Bob Crane laughed and the turtles were silent.

With humidity levels increasing, we may get an isolated t’storm or two on Tuesday afternoon.  But,  Wednesday,  there will be a shortwave wandering through the flow from the plains.  The track of the short will be the key but it is possible that we may see an enhanced risk for t’storms.  Preliminarily, the SPC has us in the slight risk area.  Won’t be surprised to see it miss us to the south and be in a fading mode, as the Canadian and GFS 12Z model runs suggest.  However, the NAM creates a huge shortwave right over  the top of us which means on Wednesday night we’d get some action.   I’m a little skeptical though because the NAM’s solution has this thing blowing up late in the day instead of fading.  Nevertheless, it is worth noting and watching. 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE OH
   VLY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SRN STREAM TROUGH
   ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SWRN STATES AND PROMINENT NRN BRANCH UPR LOW
   ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  A FAIRLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE FORMER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS…PHASING WITH THE NRN UPR LOW BY WEDNESDAY
   AFTN/EVE.  RESULTANT BAND OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ENE
   ALONG A SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD RESIDE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO
   THE OH VLY REGION.  THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR EPISODIC TSTM
   CLUSTERS…SOME SVR FOR THE MID-WEEK PD.
  
   …SRN PLNS TO THE OH VLY…
   ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VLY AT 12Z WED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-OH VLY WITH TIME.  SVR THREAT WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE WHERE PERSISTENT SSWLY
   LLJ TRANSPORTS A WARM/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO THE MID-MS
   VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.  AT THE SAME TIME…RELATIVELY
   WARM MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR…PROVIDING A CAP.
  
   WHILE HEATING ALONE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP…AS
   AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHTS FALLS SPREAD ENE…TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   INVOF A SFC LOW/FRONT FROM IL/IND BY MID-AFTN…THEN EXPAND SWWD
   ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF OK.  OTHER STORMS
   MAY FORM SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF NWRN/WCNTRL TX.
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   HIGH WINDS/HAIL. 
  
   FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
   ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.  HERE…WSWLY LLVL FLOW WILL FEED ANY TSTM
   CLUSTERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH BACKBUILDING/ELEVATED STORMS
   POSSIBLY CONTAINING HAIL.
  
   ..RACY.. 06/08/2009

President Obama’s Speech and History. The “other” Paul Revere. Air France Crash Weather Analysis June 4, 2009

President Greeted Warmly in Cairo

 Airbus Crash: First off, I want to start off with a very compelling analysis of the weather conditions and the possible relation to the potential cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447.  This link from Anthony Watts is elaborate, but still should be clear to even novice individuals.

President Obama’s Speech in Cairo: 

President Obama gave a speech at Cairo University in which he said the following: 

  “It was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the order of algebra, our magnetic compass and tools of navigation, our mastery of pens and printing, our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires, timeless poetry and cherished music, elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation. And throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality.”

 
The origin of Islam as a religion seems to go back to Muhammad in the early 7th century.  However, since Islam claims to be based on all previous prophets, then it is argued that the religion actually goes back to the beginning of man. There apparently was a schism in Islam following the death of Muhammad.  I am not an Islamic expert, but this is how I understand it.  Nevertheless, here is what my sources cite as the origins of historical items mentioned by the President: 

Euclid

Al-Khwarizmi: Greatest Mathematician of his time?

Origin of Algebra:

 Most Americans claim it is the Greeks, specifically pointing to Euclid, as insinuates a University of Hawaii professor. However, at Ball State, a professor indeed points to  Al-Khwarizmi, who was from Baghdad in the 8th and 9th centuries. Algebra as we know it was probably a developmental thing with no one individual being able to claim the title of “father of algebra.”  This historical outline indicates it was many other people in other civilizations could make the same claim. civilizations that contributed.  While it does not mention Al-Khwarizmi, it does mention the work of Brahmagupta, who was from India and lived just prior to Al-Khwarizmi.  It indicates that the work of Brahmagupta was translated into Arabic and it would make sense then that Al-Khwarizmi built on the work of the Indian mathematician.  So, someone who was probably Muslim did indeed play a part in the development of Algebra, but many

Which Way?

 The Magnetic Compass:  The magnetic compass was invented by the Chinese.  It is unclear when it was used for navigation.  This site claims that it was brought to Europe from China by Arab traders.  Other sources say that the earliest writings of the use of the compass for navigation was by the Europeans in the 12th century and the earliest known written account by an Arab was in the 13th century and he makes reference to having seen someone 40 years earlier using the device. 

Pens:this site claims the first use of an ink pen was in Egypt in the 10th century. Egypt became Islamic with the “Islamic Conquer of Egypt in 642 AD”

Printing:The Iran Chamber Society dates printing in Iran to the 17th Century. The first movable type printing press is generally known to be Gutenberg’s printing press in 1440.  There is some evidence that there was an earlier version in China.  The State University of New York at Suffolk claims that block printing also goes to Asia.

 Arches:This encyclopedia reference puts the use of arches in many cultures but its earliest reference is in Ancient Babylon in 4000BC.  Keep in mind, this was well before Muhammad was even born.  That seems to be a leap that arches were born from an Islamic culture when Islam wasn’t even established yet.  That would be like saying the Indians were Christian because many became so later.  But, keep in mind, the President did not say that arches were invented by Muslims.

Arches Used But Not Invented by Romans

Understanding of disease spread-this seems impossible to nail down.  Sorta like “jobs created or saved”

 

 Overall, I’d give the President a C+.  Some items of mention are largely not known by Americans but others are either wrong or really squishy.

Never Heard of Jack Jouett? He Saved Thomas Jefferson With a Daring Ride

On This Date In History:  Everyone knows about Paul Revere’s ride with him crying out “the British are coming” and the Old North Church “one if by land, two if by sea.”  But what about Jack Jouett?  He may have done as much or more to save the Revolution on June 4, 1781.

The Virginia Assembly was convening in Charlottesville, Va.  Jouett was a captain in the Virginia Militia and the 27-year-old was hanging around the Cuckoo Tavern in Louisa County.  There he saw part of the 250 Redcoats whom he found out were on their way to Charlottesville to capture the Assembly…including Thomas Jefferson.  Jouett took off into the night and rode 40 miles through dense wilderness that was dangerous by day and possibly deadly by night.  Unlike Revere, he didn’t travel by nice well-traveled roads.  It’s amazing that he got through because most people couldn’t have made the trip in one day let alone one night.  He arrived at Jefferson’s door at Monticello at dawn, his face swollen and scratched from branches that whacked him to and fro on his harrowing trip.  Nevertheless…when the British arrived, the Assembly was gone, including Jefferson.  So, the lesson may be that if you are trying something clever…stay out of taverns.  And, I think we should start a new rhyme about Jack Jouett.

Now listen Children now sit right back, and hear the tale of Captain Jack

He rode through the night and was slapped in the face

He rescued Jefferson from a dangerous place!

Weather Bottom Line:  As I warned for a few days….It was cool today with highs in the 60′s.  I told you that the models were much cooler than the prevailing forecasts by the TV foofs.  I was in Indy today and it was sunny.  We will get pretty good weather through the weekend.  Cool lows in the 50′s tonight and Friday night.  Wouldn’t be surprised if some folks in the northern part of the viewing area are in the upper 40′s.  Temps will moderate to mid to upper 70′s Friday. Low to mid 80′s on Saturday and mid to upper 80′s on Sunday.

May 1 Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast; Pay No Attention to What They Say May 1, 2009

"Joe, Do Us Both a Favor and Keep Quiet"

Oaks Day Severe Weather Outlook

Don’t Listen To What I Say:  On Wednesday night, in a news conference, President Obama said that the Swine Flu situation was “a cause for deep concern, but not panic.”  Less than 12 hours later, Vice-President Joe Biden said on NBC’s Today Show that he would tell his family not to fly on airplanes or ride subways or any similar confined places.  Sounds like panic to me?  On April 25, President Obama asked federal employees to submit ideas to help him find ways to tighten the federal budget belt.  Just two days later, the White House dispatched Air Force One along with two F-16′s on a low level flight over New York City for a photo op.  The price tag to taxpayers was nearly $329,000.  I guess no one submitted the idea of not using Air Force One unnecessarily in an effort to tighten the old belt.  That’s because two days after the New York buzzing and terrorizing people in New York City who feared the low flying jumbo jet was another terrorist attack, the president took Air Force One to Arnold, Missouri to talk at a high school about his first 100 days. He then immediately flew back to Washington where he prepared for his evening press conference concerning his first 100 days.  No word on how much it cost for the round trip from DC to Arnold, but I’m sure they did it on the cheap to demonstrate how the White House is tightening its belt.

Manboobs?

Meanwhile, perhaps Alex Rodriguez should get into politics.  He told Katie Couric that he never used steroids.  Then, a few months later he confessed to juicing up when he was with the Texas Rangers.  Now, the same reporter who smoked out A-Rod and forced him to fess up, has a new book coming out that claims the sources say A-Rod was using steroids all the way back in high school and in fact did use them with the Yankees.  Unless the book has some proof other than lots of sources, then A-Rod should go with the Flinstones Vitamins Story of Sammy Sosa.  Then again, it didn’t work for Sam so maybe it wouldn’t work for Alex either.

Derby Day Severe Weather Outlook

Friday 8 PM

Kentucky Derby Forecast: (Click here for the most recent forecast) Here’s the bottom line.  We have a cold front that will move through late on Friday,  which is Oaks Day.  There was rain early Friday morning as a wave of energy rode along the frontal boundary.  I would think,along with clouds, will serve to help keep the atmosphere from getting too unstable.  But, there remains ample moisture and as the front moves through, rain will be prevalent again.  It is not out of the question to have some t’storms with the front and, if so, a few of the storms may be strong.  However, the fact that parameters will be dampened, it will mainly be a rain event.  Rain is indeed possible for the Oaks Race itself but we may get lucky and have it hold off until Friday night.  The track is wet.

 

Derby Day 8PM

On Derby Day, the front slips to the south which will put us in cooler air.  The threat for severe weather should remain to the south provided the front stays south.  The data suggests that enough high pressure will build in behind the boundary to keep it south in spite of small waves of energy running along the front providing for some overrunning rain in the area.  The timing of the wave is quite difficult if not impossible.  Its not like we have a big major feature.  These little guys are very difficult to really pinpoint but, all of the model data suggests off and on rain showers  on Saturday.  For handicappers…again…it comes down to how the track has drained regarding track conditions.  My guess is that it will be wet and somewhat muddy.  The folks at Churchill do a good job and the facilities I believe drains pretty efficiently.  Nevertheless, check the track conditions before placing your bets.  The model data only throws out about 3/4″ of rain for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.  But, I’m not so sure that the models are not under doing it on Friday as the front will have abundant moisture to work with when it comes through and picks up that stuff.  But, as long as the front gets far enough south on Saturday as progged, then the rain on Saturday should be relatively light to moderate at best.  Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50′s to low 60′s.  Below is the Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook for Derby Day.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO TN
VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…
A DEEP VORTEX ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH FAR
NRN QUEBEC TO JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY…WHILE THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ATTENDANT BROAD LONGWAVE EXTENDS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /90-100 KT/
WILL EXTEND FROM NRN IL TO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. MEANWHILE…MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND REACHING THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2…PRECEDING THE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE…A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA WSWWD THROUGH
KY TO ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO ERN/SRN OK…AND THEN EXTEND MORE
SWWD THROUGH NRN TO WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY SWD ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL VA WSWWD
THROUGH TN TO CENTRAL AR AND SERN OK. MODELS SUGGEST THE WRN EXTENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND SWD BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE NE-SW THROUGH CENTRAL TX AND THEN WWD FROM ABOUT 25 N JCT TO SW
TX.

…PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK…
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TX TO JUST S OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. 50+ KT SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS OK/N TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING /35-50 KT/ THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SW/
CENTRAL TX INTO NRN TX SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM SRN OK TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY TOWARD 00Z AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING SWRN STATES
TROUGH. THE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX INTO SERN OK/NERN TX AS A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ
EXTENDS INTO NRN/NERN TX.

…SERN OK/AR TO TN VALLEY…
SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM
SERN OK/AR TO THE TN VALLEY WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ IS
EXPECTED FROM SERN OK INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEPER THAN FARTHER E INTO THE TN VALLEY. 35-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO THE TN VALLEY/KY ON SATURDAY
BENEATH SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IN OH VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/ATTENDANT WIND THREAT GIVEN NEARLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW.

…VA/NC…
A MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF VA/NC ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VA… WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE…GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE
HEATING TAKES PLACE. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN LATER
MODELS…THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2009

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alphainventions

White House “Scares The Crap” Out of New York For Photo Op; Talking Rarely Brings Peace April 28, 2009

World War I Protest...What a Waste of Time

White House Wastes Money for "Classified" Photo Op and Scares Taxpayers Who Paid For It

Can you Imagine if this was the Bush Administration?  So, on Monday, a large low flying commercial jet was reported flying near New York City.  What people saw was a 747 with two fighter jets near by.   One could easily surmise that there was another attack coming and the Air Force was chasing down the plane.  Or maybe some people didn’t see the fighters and only saw a 747 flying low near the Statue of Liberty,  which is near the World Trade Center.  The public in the area panic and starting running pell mell in all directions.  At first it was reported as a “military drill.”  As it turns out, it was nothing more than a photo op involving one of the planes that serves as Air Force One.  And who approved it?  The Obama White House!  They wanted to get a photo of Air Force One with two jet fighters flying with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop.  The mayor of New York said he didn’t know about it but some reports say that the military told the city but said that they couldn’t tell anyone because it was classified!  Haven’t these people ever heard of photo shop?  President Obama is telling us how he is going to reign in spending, yet the White House thought it was a good idea to spend untold thousands of  taxpayer dollars to get a photo  and scare the very taxpayers that it are supposed to be serviing.  Ask yourself…wouldn’t the outrage be deafening if this had been the Bush Administration?  Yet…the media seems to be burying the story.  Here’s the take from the New York Times from the NY/region page…not the front page.  Compare it to the Wall Street Journal, which includes video.  The story from Newsweek headline rightly says it “scared the crap” of out New Yorkers.

Jacobs Words Were Useless

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915, World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world.  One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation. 

1915 US Delegation to Hague

Of course, it didn’t work, not in this war or any other armed conflict.  WWI went on for 3 more years. Two decades later we had World War II followed by so many other conflicts.  Now, you might say that if these nations had listened to what is often referred to as the Women’s Peace Conference then these other conflicts wouldn’t have happened.  But, in WWI no one was giving up an inch on the battlefield nor at the negotiating table.  In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain tried the negotiation route and he ended up sacrificing the people of Czechoslovakia for a piece of worthless paper that precluded a world war.   

WWI Could Not End Until Someone Gave Up

I mean really…I wonder if these ladies really thought 20 years after their peace conference that one could reason with Adolph Hitler?  Gee…if the two sides had only talked more, wonder what would have happened?    Negotiations didn’t stop Slobadan Milosevic, it was the bombs of the United States Air Force ordered dropped by President Clinton.  When you extend a hand, you have to have a hammer close by.  People like these women meant well.  But they seem to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves does anything when in fact, it does nothing.  Remember, war is defined as nothing more than an extension of political will.  The object of war is to get the other side to quit.  When there is an impasse in talk, the only thing that is left to do is take action if its important enough. Action requires boldness.   However, at the dawn of the 20th century, it became more apparent that the results of action could be devastating and so the total destruction of war became part of the equation….measuring risk vs. reward.

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace. 

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to disuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action, although it was peaceful action. ..and I’m not talking about walking around with signs.   The US achieved freedom through action.    The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here:

 

 

You Tell'em, Teddy!

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how

the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

 

SPC: Not a Big Deal Tuesday

Weather Bottom Line: The pattern looks pretty much holding true to form which is the idea of getting rain with t’storms on Tuesday as a weak front sneaks through.  If you noticed the sky on Monday, the clouds had almost no vertical development.  This would suggest warmer air aloft considering that we got to the mid to upper 80′s and still had no convective growth.  Any jet streaks have also moved out of the area.  With a strong front, then one could get enough lift to create some good storms.  But, in this case, the front is weak and therefore the slope is gentle.  So, it would need some help getting good lift.  But with not much of a good lapse rate and  no dynamics helping, its tough to get good storms.  Hence, you see we have no real severe threat on Tuesday.  Clouds and showers will hold the temps down to the mid 70′s.

As I had previously mentioned, the front doesn’t go far south but it appears that it will probably get far enough south to make for a decent Wednesday.  Having said that, I wouldn’t call it a slam dunk.  The times I got burned the worst on a forecast was when a front didn’t go far enough south.  It will be close.  Thursday, the front returns as a warm front and brings a risk of showers.  Friday, a cold front sags down and rain chances go up again.  I think that Oaks Day is iffy.  I’ve seen some reports being all kinda optimistic but, here’s the problem; the cold front may get hung up over the area which would enhance rain chances.  Then, there is some indication suggests that a wave of energy will run up along the front over us.  Timing would be the issue.  If the wave comes through in the late afternoon, strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.  If it’s in the evening, then, then it may be okay.  The European model wants to take the bulk of the energy well north which would put the threat in the plains.   The GFS is more interested in bringing a threat to the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and part of the Ohio Valley.  It seems to me its a risky bet to call for no chance for rain or a dry day almost any day this week.  Good news is that for the Kentucky Derby, it still looks like that high pressure will build in long enough to make for a dry and mild Derby Day with rain then coming back for Sunday.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
  
   VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH…CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
   THE COUNTRY…WILL EJECT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MERGES WITH A
   STRONGER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
   PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
   TUE…WHILE THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MS/SRN PLAINS REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH ORE/NRN CA
   IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
  
   …SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NRN TX WWD IN THE SRN TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   …WHERE STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
   JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MOISTENING ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
   MORNING.
  
   HOWEVER…THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S IN NM AND 60S IN TX SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
   …WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN TX BY
   AFTERNOON…AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG NWD DRIFTING E-W
   ORIENTED FRONT…REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONNECTION AND IN
   MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN NM. VEERING WINDS IN THE
   LOWER 3KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUPERCELLS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL…STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM AND A
   RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FAVORS SOME TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN
   ERN NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
  
   OVERNIGHT…ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD IN ZONE OF
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION…THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.
  
   …MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND…
   THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID MS/TN AND INTO THE OH VALLEYS IN THE MORNING…WEAK LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE. IN THE NERN STATES
   …LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY
   SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
   …MODERATE/STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INDICATE A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 18Z-01Z.
  
   ..IMY.. 04/27/2009

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alphainventions

Pope Fabio? Obama Not Loved By All? April 7, 2009

President Not Universally Embraced in Europe?

The press has generally reported on what President Obama is up to over in Europe with some minor carping coming from his giving the Queen of England an ipod with some of the material downloaded being video of his own inauguration.  Some question whether he breeched  etiquette with the Queen in spite of an apparent effort to brush up on etiquette with royalty and an effort to pick out a gift that reflects “her long standing ties with the US.”  Some have even suggested that the President is on an “apology tour” of Europe, criticizing his referencing America’s arrogance and also America’s use of the atomic bomb in World War II.  One may argue over those accusations at will.  But, I was under the impression from the media that the President was beloved across the pond.  But, I snooped and found that the UK Telegraph has an editorial that suggests its time for President Obama to go home.  Now, that is a pretty conservative media outlet so it may be expected.  However, it is rather surprising to find an op-ed from the left leaning UK Guardian mocking President Obama’s performance at a recent press conference.  I’m wondering if President Clinton or President Bush had gotten such treatment in Britain, would the US press corps have been silent and pretend that dissent does not exist?  Just askin. 

Fabio Chigi as the Pope

On This Date In History: Fabio Chigi had been serving as the Cardinal Secretary of State and helped negotiate a peace treaty following Europe’s 30 year war that pretty much kept the Old World pretty quiet from the mid 17th century until the late 18th century with the outset of the French Revolution.  It would seem that Pope Innocent X was grooming Fabio for the papacy.  Sure enough, when Innocent meets his demise, Fabio gets named Pope and he took the name of Alexander VII on this date in 1655.   Chigi was elected pope after 80 days of the conclave and it was widely assumed that Chigi was against the practice of nepotism in the Papacy.  It had become common for popes to appoint relatives to positions of power that paid pretty well.  And for the first year, that seemed to be the case as he forbade relatives from visiting him in Rome.  But, he jumped on the bandwagon of helping out the kinfolk the next year.  In 1656 he suddenly announced that his nephews and brothers would be joining his regime and relatives quickly took charge of his administration and nabbed all of the lucrative ecclesiastical and civil jobs.  They also received grand palaces and estates.   Anyway, perhaps the best decision Alexander the VII made was that he kept the  new name bestowed until he died on May 22, 1667.  I mean, can you imagine a Pope Fabio?

Stay Away From the Internet For Research!

Research Note…Do Your Own Work:  I often get emails and, when I had a job, inquiries from students.  When students called the tv station I always told them not to use the internet for research.  That is the general practice in academia because the internet is so easily manipulated to provide either false citations or just plain old false information.  There is no system in place to review the material to check for its veracity.  Even in publishing, editors and publishers often just assume an author of note would not be guilty of plagiarism.  Yet, in the past several years such luminaries as Stephen Ambrose and Doris Kearns Goodwin were found to have other people’s work within their works without the proper citation.  In graduate school, I found a clear case of plagiarism by a full professor of another school.  It came to my attention because I had read so much of the historiography of the subject that I was researching that I recognized the verbiage of over a dozen consecutive pages.  Nothing came of it though because a mere graduate student can’t go around charging full professors of such unseemly ethics.  In any event, I’ve told people who ask if they can use my work as a citation for their work to not use it because they have no way of knowing the veracity of my work nor any citations of sources since I don’t generally do so.  If this were an academic work, I would do so.  But, there is no peer review of this site, no editor, no publisher…no one but me.  Now, my sources are almost exclusively traditionally published work.  I will link to sites that either appear to be credible or do have credibility as the origin is an academic institution.  It’s pretty safe to use news items from the media outlet website.

You Have No Clue Who is Behind Internet Material

While I was snooping about regarding Alexander VII, I came across his involvement in the centuries long debate about the heliocentric system vs the geocentric system and its relation to the teaching of the Catholic Church.  What I found is an example of why the internet is no good.  Wikipedia, Absolute Astronomy, Answers.com , New Universe and dic.academic.ru all have almost exactly the same entries…word for word.  Now, the academic.ru site looks like it’s credible by its name but, very inconspicusly there is a citation for wikipedia.  Answers.com contains the entire first paragaph found in the other sites but then says to go and visit Brittanica.  This leads me to believe that whomever posted the Wikipedia material got it from Brittanica and the other sites simply went to Wikipedia, which is hardly a credible source because, from what I understand, anyone can post on there.  Bottom line is….don’t be lazy.  Get off your duff and get to the library.  Develop library skills and use them for proper academic work.  You’ll save yourself some embarrassment, avoid academic fraud and have a more complete and accurate work that is more likely to get a good grade…that is unless the teacher doesn’t use the internet as a source.  It always baffles me how teachers in the grade schools can encourage the use of the internet.

GFS For Mon AM

Weather Bottom Line:  I think only two of the warned areas on Sunday actually verified for any severe damage, which is fine for property owners and the electric company.  But, if you are a forecaster or the SPC who put out two tornado watches and the NWS that put out numerous t’storm warnings.  What I’m seeing here is a trend this season of the GFS going a bit overboard.  With that in mind, next Friday the GFS goes bonkers again and if it were to come about, we’d get a bunch of tough storms.  It’s a long way off and given the GFS track record so far, its probably best to just sit back and wait for more data.  The boys at the SPC are of the opinion that the short wave responsible for the supposed trouble will get squashed out as it runs into a ridge.  Now, there is a system west of Japan right now that looks pretty formidable.  The SPC is more interested in that but is not putting any discussion worthwhile because it’s so far out and because the data that is there is inconsisten.  If you look at the GFS and the ECMWF (european) models, you see the feature on Monday morning but see it in two very different places.  The thing about this guy that was different from this past Sunday is that it will have several days of a wide open Gulf to bring

European Mon AM

ample warmth, moisture and instability out ahead of the system which will enhance severe potential.  I suspect that it’s a pretty decent assumption that we will have a severe event in the nation from the latter part of the weekend into the first part of next week.  The question will be where and when. 

Look for temps down to the upper 20′s and low 30′s.  I covered up Kelsaroo that is starting to awaken from its winter slumber.  Horton is already putting out new limbs but should be fine since he is, after all, a tree and a hydrangia like Kelsaroo.  We’ll only be in the low 40′s on Tuesday for afternoon highs but begin to moderate on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.  The moisture will be slow to come around which is why the GFS is probably way too aggressive with severe chances on Friday…there simply won’t be an adequate opportunity for the atmosphere to reload.  Next weekend should feature generally seasonal temperatures.

 

 

 

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