Good Weather For Preakness 2010; Still Attendance Questions May 12, 2010

Click on Image For Official Preakness Site

In previous years, taking target practice with beers at guys running on port-o-cans was popular...not this year

The Preakness:  Last year I went to the Preakness and I  was looking forward to witnessing the infamous infield party that I had heard so much about.  I was told it was extremely wild. I had heard about port-o-can races in which people raced across the top of the portable bathrooms lined up in areas of the infield.  What I learned was that, not only did people race, but spectators routinely threw beer cans at the racers in a make-shift game of a shooting gallery.  When I got to the infield, it was very sparsely attended.  Apparently local officials felt that the infield, which was said to have reached numbers of 60,000, was too wild.  Last year, they disallowed attendees from bringing their own beer.  Infield tickets were priced at $50.  I thought that I saw a pack of cigarettes priced at $10.  One blogger claims that there were specials of $1 pints of beer available, but I tend to recall witnessesing something closer to the Washington Post’s  story that asserted beer was sold at $3.50 for a 16 oz beer.  They had concerts all during the races with some bands that I did not know.  There was a big stage with huge monitors pointed away from the main grandstands and away from the VIP tenst set up adjacent to the front stretch on the infield.  ZZ Top was the headliner in the afternoon.  I think I got the treat of seeing the “little old band from Texas” with about 200 other people.  Beyond the dearth of people, what else that was interesting was that how the grandstands could barely hear anything that was going out over the speakers.  Attendance was down 31%.  I believe that the number at Pimlico was about 77,000 whereas in 2008 the attendance number was about 112, 000.

Pimlico Officials are Hopeful that New Policies Will Make Last Year's Showing to be Just An Abberration

So, this year they are modifying the policy.  Infield goers still can’t bring their own beer, but the ticket price has been lowered to $40.  Also, the Washington DC NBC affiliate reports that revelers will be permitted to drink all the beer that they want after purchasing a mug for $20.   You can also bring in picnic lunches.  Sorry, no thermoses.  They are also going for bands that might be more attractive to younger patrons with the Maryland band O.A.R. as well as a country music entry, Grammy Award winners the Zac Brown Band.  The story ends with a Pimlico official as saying that ticket sales are outpacing last year.  That in itself shouldn’t be too difficult.  The real question is how much higher is the sales pace?  This blog claims that “Sanity reigns at the Preakness.”  The organizers hope that sanity still reigns on the infield because, in spite of the liberalized pricing policy, they still have rules at Pimlico.  Regardless of where you are at Pimlico to see if Calvin Borel can win the second leg of the Triple Crown, the weather will be outstanding.

SPC Severe Risk Thu AM to Fri AM well Northwest of Pimlico

Front Through Baltimore By Saturday Morning with High Pressure Building In

Preakness Stakes 2010 Weather Forecast for Pimlico:  The general pattern of disturbed weather is mainly for the Midwest and part of the Ohio Valley as there is a big trof that will be slowly moving west to east and little waves of energy will be ejecting from the Southern Plains to the Northeast.  As the trof moves East, the shower activity will move with it. However, the shortwave energy will not be rounding about as the mean trof approaches the Mid-Atlantic.  Hence, while scattered showers and t’storm will be possible for Thursday and Friday with Friday being the best chance for thunderstorms around the track, I see nothing in the data that suggest much of severe weather.  The main storm track will be well to the Northeast such that the risk for severe weather will be in the Ohio Valley and points North for Thursday into Thursday night. 

High Pressure Contnues to Build In Through Sunday Morning

The front eases through Baltimore on Saturday morning, probably before daybreak.  From that point forth, high pressure will be building in with drier air filtering in.  The NAM vertical profile suggests that in the early to mid afternoon there may be a relatively thin cloud deck at 5000 feet.  The GFS also has a layer of higher moisture at that level but does not indicate a solid deck.  Guess here is that it’s partly cloudy at best.  The high continues to build in throughout the day on Saturday from the Northwest.  I would think that there might be a breeze from the the North and then Northeast with relatively low humidity.  Preakness post time temperatures  will be running in the mid 70′s.  While there will be a risk for rain on Thursday and Friday, I see nothing that suggests anything overly excessive and the drying trend on Saturday I would think would result in a relatively fast track, certainly nothing like the mud that we saw at the Kentucky Derby.  Final hint:  Bet Big, Win Big.

Presidential Example of How To Deal with Islamic Terrorists Helped Re-Election Bid May 18, 2009

Teddy Knew How To Take Care of Business

On This Date in History:  President Theodore Roosevelt got a boost to his re-election campaign from an unlikely source on this date in  in 1904.  The benefactor was an Islamist terrorist.  Did you think that was a late 20th century phenomena?  Of course not.  They’ve been around for quite awhile as I’ve pointed out numerous times on these here pages.  However, this event really wasn’t that long ago when you consider that the seamstress for one of the main characters just died in 2004. 

Abdul Aziz Was Tossed in 1908

This guy inadvertently helped out Teddy when he kidnapped a wealthy American, Ion Perdicaris, in Morocco.  Mubu (Mulai) Ahmed er Raisuli was considered to be a Barbary Pirate who was unhappy with the sultan of Morocco for allowing the French to have great sway and influence in the country as long as they gave him toys.  See, Sultan Abdul Aziz got bicycles, 25 grand pianos, over 600 cameras and even a gold car even though Morocco had no roads.  Well, Raisuli had enough so he decided to act.  Not in the violent way that seemed more prevalent in the early 20th Century in general and has been pervasive in Islamic politics for generations. No…he decided to follow a script that could have been written in Hollywood.

By kidnapping Perdicaris and ransoming him to the Moroccan government, he hoped to involve the United States and bring great shame in disrepute to the government which would lead to it’s demise.  His plan worked.  He got the attention of none other than the old Rough Rider himself, Teddy Roosevelt, whose re-election campaign was in need of a boost.  Roosevelt seized the opportunity and sent a negotiator even though Raisuli had a reputation for sending messengers back with their throats slit or even just sending back their heads.  In this case, Raisuli didn’t provoke Roosevelt that directly but he was being difficult.  He finally agreed to release the tycoon for $70,000 then he changed his mind.  That provoked TR.

Cruiser Brooklyn Was a Pretty Big Stick

Teddy sent a telegram to the envoy instructing him to proceed cautiously and also included numeorus other items for the envoy to consider.  But, it also included the phrase, “the government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead.”  In typical Roosevelt fashion, TR sent a bunch of warships to the coast of Morroco.  The Republican convention had unanimously re-nominated President Roosevelt but the atmosphere was dull and listless until….they read the one “bully” phrase from the telegram to the negotiator.  When the conventioneers heard that TR wanted the prisoner back alive or the captor dead, wild cheers and applause errupted on the convention floor and the campaign was off and running.  It turns out it was all for naught because by the time the telegram reached Raisuli he had already changed his mind again, accepted the money and released Perdicaris.  Of course the perception of the public was that it was Teddy’s dead or alive demand that caused the release.  The campaign never did  anything to change that perception nor did it point out that the United States had given in to every one of the pirate’s demands.

Don't Let the Facts Get in the Way of a Good Cartoon

They also didn’t tell the electorate that it had been found out that Perdicaris wasn’t even an American citizen.  The administration had found out that during the Civil War, Perdicaris had renounced his US citizenship and become a Greek citizen so that when he refused his draft call into the Confederacy, his land holdings would not be confiscated.  The fact that the captive was not an American was not known to the public for 40 years, well after Roosevelt’s death.    I don’t think anyone shouted out “Teddy lied!”  Nor was there a movement to blow up his face from Mt. Rushmore. 

Raisluli...Doesn't Look Like He Missed a Meal

Now, this Hollywood script worked better than Raisuli bargained for. He got the $70,000 but he made the Sultan look so incompetent that the Sultan’s brother overthrew the government and the new administration clamped down on the pirate Raisuli.  The French were so angered by the whole thing that they exerted even greater influence.  Perhaps there is a reason why those who wish to topple a government don’t follow a drama line…

Sean Makes a Better Raisuli Than the Real Thing

But Hollywood liked the script and in 1975 produced The Wind and the Lion that was based on the incident.  But, producers being as it is…they made some changes.  Instead of a wealthy expatriated American man getting kidnapped, the lovely Candice Bergen was held by her captive…Sean Connery…who just a few years later was named the Sexiest Man Alive!!!  

Does the picture at the upper left look like Sean Connery to you?

Here’s a link to more details if you like:

Teddy’s Big Stick

 

 

In previous years, taking target practice with beers at guys running on port-o-cans was popular...not this year

Preakness Infield Looked Nothing Like This in '09

Weather Bottom Line:

  Snow White and I had a wonderful time at Pimlico this past weekend.  But, they didn’t allow anyone to bring their own beer (BYOB) into the infield this year and attendance suffered.  It was down 35,000 from last year.  Usually, its very wild and there is no space to be found anywhere.  There were plenty of green places this year.  Beer sold for $3.50 and a pack of cigarettes sold for $10!  I talked to one guy who said the local colleges boycotted the event.  But, that was better for me because I got to see ZZ Top on the infield from about 10 feet away. 

 

Paul Richardson has a birthday today, but I don’t know how old he is but he’s closer to retirement than me.  I may have been in the Baltimore Sun because I was standing behind a woman who got her photo taken.   I met a couple from Tampa who told me that my old buddy Dave Reynolds suffered the same fate as I did.  But, because it happened to me, I was able to go to the Preakness for the first time.

You can tell I’m dodging the weather.  That’s because there’s nothing to say except a big ridge will be building in from the Southwest.  After a chilly Monday start, we begin moderating and will be quite warm by midweek.  No rain likely for the week ahead.  However, there will be a low wandering in to Florida from the Atlantic that will skid along the Gulf Coast.  It’s progged at 1008 mb and it will be interesting to see if they call it a depression.  Hurricane Season doesn’t start until June 1 but it’s not unusual for the boys at the National Hurricane Center to get aggressive with the classification of pre-season storms.  Often, it doesn’ t warrant such a thing but I think they bend the parameters a bit sometimes to get everyone’s attention.  Sorta  a marketing tool.   But, I don’t know that for certain.