Hope and Change? Russians Say US is Marxist, Obama New Gorbachev! Rapid City 1972 Flood June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation. Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho? When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota. A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours. Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable. Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up. Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain. On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam. The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City. Some 238 people lost their lives that night. Most of the homeowners had no insurance. Today the dam has been rebuilt. I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today. There’s one big difference. There is no residential community in the flood plain any more. Today it’s a golf course. It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed. It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook for June 10 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  This is an update to similar post earlier.  The story is about the same though the SPC expanded the severe risk area markedly.  I suspect this is in response to the divergence in model solutions as there is a consistency of a strong short rolling around to the north and then that secondary short moving out of the plains and into the region.  But, its very difficult to nail down exactly where the second short will go and even the extent of the northern, stronger short.  Guess here is that the enhanced humidity level, warm conditions and increased instability will lend itself to supporting strong storms wherever the kicker short comes through.  Otherwise, there will be the risk of scattered convectively induced activity.  While I’m still of the mind that the secondary short may be mainly south of our area, I have some concern of the extent of the instability of the northern short.  Further, the secondary short may very a shade from my suspicions and so a variance of say 30 miles at initiation will make a lot of difference downstream.  Tornadic threat would most likely be minimal as support conditions for such activity will probably be limited, but local conditions can always produce some monkeybusiness.  Biggest threat will be for hail and strong winds dragged down from aloft.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK/KS EWD INTO THE MID
   OH/TN VALLEY REGION…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED/WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD…BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
   OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FASTER WSWLY FLOW…SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE ENEWD…CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD ZONE OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOCUSED INVOF A SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO LIE
   FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
  
   …KS/OK EWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS…
   SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM ERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO
   THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION…AS AT LEAST TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION/MCS
   SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN
   VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD.  SEVERE POTENTIAL –
   PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — WITH THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KY/TN AND VICINITY THROUGH
   THE DAY…ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
   PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W ACROSS SRN MO AND
   INTO ERN KS/ERN OK…QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING BOTH AIRMASS QUALITY
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SWD/CONVECTIVELY-ALTERED LOCATION OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. 
  
   ATTM…IT APPEARS THAT SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS
   SRN MO AND VICINITY…IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR
   CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.
    NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH
   SOME WWD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER IN THE DAY WITHIN
   THIS REGION OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.  WITH MODERATELY-STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD…AMPLE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
   STORMS — WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   LIKELY.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IF
   CELLULAR STORM MODE COULD BE MAINTAINED…MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL
   WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — ESPECIALLY WITH LIKELY
   EVOLUTION INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS THROUGH THE EVENING. 
  
   …N TX SWWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND REGION…
   THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH MODERATE
   WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW…AND THUS IN HANDLING OF THE SURFACE PATTERN
   ACROSS TX.  THE NAM — WITH A WEAK FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS W
   TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON — DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX
   BIG BEND…AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SELYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NRN AND WRN TX.  MEANWHILE…THE GFS PROGS A STRONGER FEATURE TO
   MOVE OUT OF NM AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   THUS — THE GFS SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER SWRN OK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON…WITH MUCH MORE VEERED/SWLY SURFACE WINDS S OF THE LOW
   OVER THE WRN HALF OF TX BEHIND AN EWD-MIXING DRYLINE.
  
   THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
   THE NAM SCENARIO…WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
   PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITHIN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
    ATTM…WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION — WHICH WOULD BE FOR A
   LESSER SEVERE THREAT WITH LESS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER E.
    WHILE A 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED…WILL SHIFT
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY WWD AS A HEDGE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
   NAM SCENARIO.
  
   …MID-ATLANTIC REGION…
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXPECTED ACROSS
   VA/NC AND VICINITY.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE
   MODEST…PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE
   SURFACE TROUGH — ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND.
   CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
  
   ..GOSS.. 06/09/2009

John Gets it Done; Fengshen Goes to Hong Kong; Stormy Weather Getting Closer June 26, 2008

This is Friday’s Severe Threat. The idea is that the front is moving across the northern plains. There is a lot of energy to the north. Tornadic activity is most likely from say Iowa through Minnesota. As the storms move along ahead of the front, the should weaken a bit. Then as the front comes through here on Saturday afternoon, then there will be a regeneration. The only discussion as of this writing is from Wednesday morning and can be found here on Saturday Potential. Thursday will be hot and humid with scattered to isolated t’storms. We’re not in the slight risk but just recognize that if you are under a t’storm, it will have the potential to be strong with small hail, gusty winds and plenty of lightning. I’ll have more midday on Thursday.

Typhoon Fengshen made landfall fairly close to Hong Kong….just barely to the East. I think it may even be in the same province. It was a wind and rain maker for the area with some flooding. My guess is that the mudslides and flooding stated in the following story probably was on the eastern side of the huge city. Nevertheless, it’s China’s wealthiest province and they already had flooding earlier this month. Here’s a story.

BBC Weather Center

Here’s the story from the English version of the Russian Pravda, which I think was the former state controlled news service. What’s maybe more interesting than the story, which is just a short AP story, are the side stories on the page. They are under “Breaking News”! One calls Sen. McCain “Anti-Russian Sen. John McCain” another says that racism is one of the USA’s biggest problems and another that Senators Clinton and Obama are “fighting to change US history. We thought the “Breaking News” in the US was over the top. We should put this in our newspapers. “Breaking News: Former Communists still in Russia.” You can decide for yourself who Pravda is hoping wins.

Pravada-Fengshen Hong Kong

The photos from this blogger from Hong Kong don’t seem to match the headlines. Again, my guess is that much of the main part of Hong Kong probably didn’t fair all that badly…but I’m not there I am here and I am going by what is typical of tropical systems. Here’s the blogger’s photos.

Hong Kong photos from blogger

On This Date in History: These days, with the government induced and short sighted push toward ethanol, corn is becoming a bigger and bigger part of the agricultural market. That is actually a trend toward the past. Before wheat became a large part of the Midwestern scene, corn was king. But, a group of outcasts came and changed all of that. The Mennonites had over time been run out of numerous countries before they came to the United States by way of the Ukraine. Like other peoples from other parts of the world that arrived in the land of the free and the home of the brave, they brought a little something to add to our melting pot. On this date in 1873, the first Russian Mennonites purchased land in Kansas. They had actually been lobbied by the state to come because it was desirable to develop a population that could farm efficiently. Not only did the Ukrainians bring efficiency, but also hearty winter wheat. When they arrived, there was a plague of locusts and then a drought. But these were hard working, determined people who had an ace up their sleeve. The locusts got the corn and the soft spring wheat but the winter wheat had been planted the winter before and harvested before the insects came. The Mennonites turned a profit. At first the Kansans had made fun of their new neighbors because of their different clothing and way of life. Quickly any jeers faded as the smilers watched the immigrants settle their accounts in gold and their business activity refill the depleted state accounts. Everyone got the drift and winter wheat became the main crop in Kansas. Funny thing was.. by the late 20th century, it was largely Kansas wheat that eventually became an export back from whence it came; Russia.

The most prolific President of all time got back in the saddle on this date in 1844 when President John Tyler wed his twenty-four year old second wife. The 54 year-old widower had lost his wife several months prior. She had lost her father in a cannon accident just two months prior to the wedding. You can read about the whole incident and other details on my previous account regarding John Tyler. Bottom line is that President Tyler is the only President to be married while in office. They wed in secret to avoid the 19th century of the Paparazzi and because she was supposed to be in mourning over her father’s death and most people don’t think marrying the President of the United States as being a good exhibition of mourning. The Tylers didn’t have much time left in office as his term was up in 8 months. But that didn’t mean that John couldn’t still get it done. He had 7 children by is first wife of 29 years. He had 8 more by his second wife. In all, he had 15 children. One was 5 years older than his 2nd wife and 45 years older than the youngest. Who says Jimmy Carter is the most accomplished former President?