Parma Tracking Toward Vietnam; Philippines Short of Coffins; UN Short in Fund Raising October 13, 2009

Parma Satellite 1130Z 10.13.09

Philippines Flooding Slideshow

The final destination of the storm once known as Typhoon Parma is set.  The Parma forecast track takes it into Vietnam, south of Hanoi.  It regained intensity to tropical storm status over the past few days and moved across Hainan, which is a island province in China.  Bloomberg reports that 3 were killed there.  Parma has fallen back to a depression and will remain so as it moves into Vietnam.  The problem with this storm will be heavy rainfall.   The Vietnamese authorities are expecting a 4 meter (13 feet) surge and with the storm moving along at just 7 kph (10 mph)  I would expect that big rainfall totals can be expected in parts of Vietnam.

W. Pacific IR Satellite Loop

3 weeks ago, Tropical Storm Ketsana produced flooding and landslides in the Philippines that killed some 337 people.  It then went and killed scores more with more flooding in Vietnam and Southeast Asia. At least 163 died in Vietnam alone.  Then Typhoon Parma came to the Philippines a week later and destroyed crops as it moved northwest and then returned as a tropical storm and then a depression.  The resulting rains produced more devastating flooding and killed well over 200 more.  China View reports more than 600 have perished in the Philippines as a result of Ketsana and Parma.   Parts of the Philippines have been under deep, standing water for 3 weeks and officials are now concerned about the potential for disease.  Meanwhile, as they continue to find bodies in towns that  had been buried in landslides, there is a shortage of coffins and at least 200 have had to be imported.    I’ve reported on this calamity fairly frequently but the world seems to be more interested in other things.  The UN had made an appeal for $74 million in aid.  That is equivalent to about 1/4 of Alex Rodriguez total contract with the New York Yankees.  Yet, the BBC reports that the UN has only been able to secure $19 million of the $74 million in aid requested.  

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

 

WDPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 64//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH OF PARMA. CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST IN A SINGLE BAND,
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC HAS REMAINED FREE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
A RECENT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BAND, LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AFFECTING THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE CURRENT FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
REGARDS TO TRACK, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKING PARMA FURTHER
NORTH. THIS IS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON PERSISTENCE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SOUTHERN TURN WHILE PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
    B. PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR, UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS PARMA
TRACKS INLAND, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION,
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER VIETNAM. MODEL GUIDANCE,
AS MENTIONED IN PARA 3.A., HAS NOT SHOWN SKILL IN FORECASTING THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS FACT, THE CURRENT
FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE PERSISTENT TRACK OF PARMA VICE THE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, THIS IS DUE TO THE POOR
REPRESENTATION OF PARMA IN MODEL FIELDS AS IT WEAKENS.//
NNNN

Former Typhoon Parma Tracking Away from Philippines Leaving Flooding and Over 100 Dead October 9, 2009

Parma Finally Exiting Philippines click image for latest loop

For update, photos and video and rising Typhoon Parma Philippines death toll, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track

The former Typhoon Parma Forecast Track is finally good news for Filipinos. (JTWC Discussion) The storm made landfall several days ago on the eastern coast of the northern Philippines causing flooding and more than a dozen deaths on top of the flooding and nearly 300 deaths brought less than a week before by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  It then drifted to the northwest of the island into the Luzon Strait.  About a week ago, I mentioned the possibility of further devastation from Parma as I had feared it would get caught in the flow of the bypassing Typhoon Melor.  It did that and for the last 3 days, it has been lurking over the islands.  It weakened on Wednesday but slipped just off the east coast and we noted here that the convection seemed to be blowing up again over the island just following the center’s emergence back over the ocean.  It wasn’t far off the coast, but far enough. 

7 Day Rain Totals NASA TRMM

Parma spent Thursday moving back to the west over the island and is now moving into the South China Sea and will continue to do so, regaining some strength to tropical storm status before moving into Vietnam in a few days. This is almost a certainty because high pressure is building in from China and it has to drive it that way and keep it moving.  But, Parma left its mark.  In the previous post, I noted that 6 had been killed in landslides.  The landslides in the mountainous areas increased and now the death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Parma is over 100.  Many of the deaths were in Benguet Province.  Some 30 towns in Pangasinan  Province were flooded.  Many areas that were trying to begin recovery from Ketsana’s flooding are now under water again.  To the left is the NASA TRMM satellite depiction of the rain fall in the world wide tropical regions over the past 7 days. Note the heavy rain over the Philippines from Parma and Japan from Typhoon Melor.

Parma Satellite 2330Z 10.08.09

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 046   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z — NEAR 16.6N 120.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 120.0E
    —
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z — 16.6N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    —
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z — 16.8N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z — 17.0N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z — 17.3N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z — 18.0N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    —
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z — 18.2N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    —
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z — 17.4N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 119.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS
THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY
TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

Tsunami Claims At Least 34; Philippines Death Toll Rises; US General killed by fellow officer September 29, 2009

Tropical Storm Parma Will Miss Philippines

Update Found HERE

Tropical Storm Ketsana dropped some 17 inches of rain in 12 hours on one of the most populous cities on earth, Manila.  The Philippines is not a wealthy country and there are reports that international aid is pouring in.  But, as of Sept 29, the big donor has been Japan at about $220,000.  The US has pledged $100,000.  We have ballplayers who make more than that in one day.  I suppose its good to wait and see what is needed but it seems to me that much more will be needed.  The US Navy is assisting in search and rescue operations.  There are numerous sources for flooding photos from the Philippines.   Stories are flying across the wires that the Philippines will get hit by another tropical cyclone.  Well, that’s a bit of hyperbole.  Yes, there is a tropical storm.  Yes, it is expected to become a typhoon.  Yes, it is moving in the general direction of the Philippines.  But, the latest forecast calls for it to turn and head toward Taiwan.  Now, with this course, the northern Philippines can expect unwanted rain in the form of bands passing through, but don’t believe the headlines just yet that imply the Philippines will be struck dead on with another tropical cyclone in a few days.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, there was a lot of shaking going on and frayed nerves.  Ever since the tsunami in Thailand, the press has become tuned in, acting as if its a new phenomena.  Video and the internet clued in ignorant journalists to what pacific rim folks have known for centuries, that tsunamis can be extremely devastating.  While there have not been world wide reports regarding deaths, there was a 5 foot tsunami in American Samoa that occured following a giant quake  that has been reported as 7.9, 8.3 and 8.0 and was moderately shallow at 11.2 miles depth.  It was known for quite sometime that at least one village was washed away but CBS now reports at least 14 have died on American Samoa. Later reports have the death toll up to 34.   Here are the details from the USGS.

Earthquake Details

Magnitude	8.0
Date-Time	Tuesday, September 29, 2009 at 17:48:11 UTC Tuesday, September 29, 2009 at 06:48:11 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location	15.558°S, 172.073°W
Depth	18 km (11.2 miles) set by location program
Region	SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
Distances	185 km (115 miles) ENE of Hihifo, Tonga 195 km (125 miles) S of APIA, Samoa 705 km (435 miles) NNE of NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga 2700 km (1670 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty	horizontal +/- 6.6 km (4.1 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters	NST=293, Nph=293, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.07 sec, Gp= 32°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source	USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID	us2009mdbi

The USGS also has a summary regarding the plate tectonics involved specifically with the event:

Tectonic Summary

The broad-scale tectonics of the Tonga region are dominated by the relative convergence of the Pacific and Australia plates, with the Pacific plate subducting westward beneath the Australia plate at the Tonga trench. At the latitude of the earthquake of September 29, 2009, the Pacific plate moves westward with respect to the interior of the Australia plate at a velocity of about 86 mm/year. The earthquake occurred near the northern end of a 3,000 km long segment of the Pacific/Australia plate boundary that trends north-northeast.; farther north of the earthquake’s source region, the plate boundary trends northwest and then west. The eastern edge of the broad Australia plate may be viewed as a collection of small plates or microplates that move with respect to each other and with respect to the Pacific plate and the Australia plate interior.

On the basis of currently available location and fault mechanism information, we infer that the September 29 earthquake occurred as a normal fault rupture on or near the outer rise of the subducting Pacific plate.

The broad-scale Australia/Pacific plate boundary is one of the most active earthquake regions in the world. Earthquakes occur on the thrust-fault boundary between the Australia and Pacific plates, within the Pacific plate on both sides of the trench, and within and on the boundaries of the small plates that compose the eastern edge of the overall Australia plate.

Bull Nelson Before Demise

On This Date in History: Union General William “Bull” Nelson got his name from being a big, bearish man who used his physical size to intimidate others. He had initially been an officer in the navy and somehow became a general in the army. But the Bull was butchered in the Galt House in Louisville on this date in 1862. Not only was he murdered by another Union General named Jefferson Davis, he met his demise in the presence of the Governor of Indiana.

NY Illustrated News Captured the Moment

In the summer of 1862, while General Don Carlos Buell was wandering around Tennessee with his Louisville based Army of the Ohio building railroads following the battle of Shiloh, the contingent of men left to defend Louisville was left to one of Buell’s subordinates, Nelson. Confederate General Braxton Bragg began a campaign into Kentucky and the fear was he would get to Louisville before Buell could return. So, while Buell was plodding along back to Louisville, Nelson started putting cannon on the Indiana side of the river so he could shell the city if the Confederates ever invaded. For some reason, Bragg didn’t come to Louisville…probably a blunder…though he was probably fearful of the reception he would get from the populous. So, as Buell’s army trickled back in, Nelson spied Gen. Jeff Davis of Indiana ordering his men to dig in. Bull didn’t think much of that and let Davis know.

Jefferson C Davis Didn't Man Up

Davis wasn’t pleased but instead of manning up and facing Bull, he ran back to Indianapolis and fetched Indiana Governor Oliver Morton and on the evening of September 29 1862 in the stairwell of the Galt House in Louisville, tough guy Davis confronted Nelson. He challenged the powerful Nelson to a duel who, in front of Morton, rebuffed Davis with a scoff and then with the back of his hand when pressed. Nelson went up the stairs and our hero Davis grabbed a pistol, ran up the stairs and shot General Nelson dead. Before he died, Nelson tried to cover all of his bases by getting baptized but that didn’t help with the post mortem scales of justice. See, Buell had Davis arrested but Buell got fired about two months later following the battle of Perryville. With Buell out of the way and the main witness being a good Republican Governor from a Union State, Davis never faced trial and so the murder of a Union General in front of several witnesses was never “solved.” And so ends another tale of courage and justice during the Civil War and it all happened at the Galt House.

No word on whether or not Davis spent the rest of his life looking on golf courses for the real killer.

Louisville NWS Wed AM Forecast Temps

Weather Bottom Line:  You can tell that I didn’t look at the stuff too much because I missed a feature that I should have caught.  It was a vort lobe swinging around the main low.  Very common with winter systems and this is a winter-like system.  So, we had wrap around clouds and many people never got to the 60′s.  Now, the trofiness associated with the lobe should continue to pinwheel around and we will clear out.  I suspsect that the winds will also decrease so I still think overnight lows in the 30′s for the northern 1/3 of the area is reasonable to expect.  We had temps in the mid 40′s last night and I think that the low to mid 40′s will be popular.  Wednesday will be a better day with plenty of sunshine and the mercury in the mid 60′s.  Low 70′s on Thursday and then Friday is a bit in the air.  We’ll be in a situation where we have a front approaching that will try to drag up warm moist air before it gets replaced by another round of cooler air.  Its possible that we get some strong storms…but I gotta believe that everything has to come together at the right time for that to occur. So, we’ll see how it unfolds.