“We Don’t Know” is better than “Global Warming” “Global Cooling” or “They are Wrong” December 18, 2009

This Was Truth in 1975...Is it Today?

“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects.”

With the meeting going on in Copenhagen, one might think that the headline above was from current media.  But, it’s not.  It’s actually a quote from an article in Newsweek from April 28, 1975.  The topic was climate change but at that time, the concern was global cooling.  The concern then was from aerosols being emitted by humans, as this article partly explains.  In 1974, articles began appearing, like this one in the New York Times, that say that climate change could threaten global food production.  Another New York Times article from May 21, 1975 says that the scientific community was concerned about climate change.  It says that many thought that the earth was getting colder and we were heading toward another ice age.  But, in an interesting side note, it also mentioned that some scientists felt like man made pollution would hold  off another ice age.  It then goes on to say that just about everyone agrees that global cooling was inevitable and even cited cooling northern hemispheric temperatures since 1950 that had shortened Britain’s growing season. 

“There seem little doubt that the present period of unusual warmth will eventually give way to a time of colder climate, but there is no consensus with regard to either the magnitude or rapidity of the transition.” 

Again, some might think that is a quote from a recent global warming study that would seem to fit some folk’s world view.  But, it’s not.  This quote if from a January 19, 1975 article in the New York Times.  The Times is quoting a National Academy of Sciences report.  Now, people may jump on the parts of the article that state that says there is the potential for an abrupt end to the warmth of the interglacial period.  But, instead, I would focus attention on another quote from the article which says: “A far greater understanding of these changes is required than we now possess.”  While the article talks about the prospects of possible increasing global temperatures due to man’s activities, it also says that northern hemisphere temperatures rose steadily from the 1880′s to the 1940′s but then fell consistently from the 1940′s to the mid 1970′s.  Huh?  We’ve been led to believe that temperatures have been steadily increasing all through the 20th century. 

The Copenhagen talks have come and gone and nothing much happened.  We are in the middle of a global recession and all of the remedies proposed seem to have one thing in common: Money.  There is the cost of taxes designed to discourage fossil fuel use and encourage the development of “green” technology.  There is some sort of “cap and trade” effort which doesn’t seem to stop carbon emissions but instead shifts money around in a shell game.  And then there was the proposal that rich nations give hundreds of billions of dollars to poor countries.  Some say these proposals are nothing more than a transfer or wealth and no one can tell me who gets the tax money and what it is to be used for.  Also, what assurances are there that the poorer countries that get the money from the rich ones will actually use the funding for what it was intended?  Ask yourself if you believe a third world government that is given hundreds of billions of dollars will do what they are supposed to do with all that money. 

All of this is, of course, framed in the current “climategate” scandal in which thousands of emails from a leading climate institute came to light in which the scientists involved appear to be acknowledging cooking the books to make data fit their hypothesis.  Now, apparently Russian scientists confirm that UK scientists manipulated climate data to fit their opinions.    Some people say that all of this new evidence proves that the whole Global Warming scare is all wrong.  But, that is not necessarily true.  Peter Gwynne, who authored the famous Global Cooling article in the April 28 1975 Newsweek issue says that his story was not wrong in the journalistic sense.  He reported accuratetly what was being reported.  What the difference is that scientists in the 1970′s were looking at the situation with an open mind.  They suspected that man’s activities were altering the climate but were unsure of just how it was happening.  They let the facts lead them to reach conclusions.  NASA explains that they use the term Climate Change instead of Global Warming because the latter term is suggestive of a terminal conclusion instead of merely an alteration of the climate. 

Have global temperatures risen? Yes.  Has the Arctic Ice Cap receded? Yes over 20 years but over the past two years, there has been modest ice growth at the North Pole, but most news articles use verbiage to try and obfuscate that fact.  That is the word…obfuscation instead it should be transparency.  The world should take the view of the scientists in the 1970′s that more understanding was required.  The truth is, we just don’t know for sure what is going on.  We have no idea if the proposals at the Copenhagen Summit would change the environment one bit.  We have no idea what the truth is regarding anthropogenic global warming because so many politicians, political world bodies, people who have a monetary stake in the process and countries who stand to gain politically have gotten involved.  Everyone should step aside.  Former Vice-Presidents should leave their private jets in the hanger and let the grown ups do their work.  The UN should look at the question of whether or not, if anthropogenic global warming is a certainty, if there is anything that can or should be done.  Thomas Friedman raised the question in one of his books if they money used to try and re-alter the earth’s climate could not be better used to fight disease, hunger and poverty. 

Global Cooling? Yeah…everyone just chill out and allow for a transparent, academic process to move forth that leads to a rational, precise conclusion.  The politicians can remain spectators.  The thing that gets overlooked in the January 1975 New York Times article is the subheadline:  “Scientists Warn Predictions Must Be Made Precise to Avoid Catastrophe.”   That holds true today and those at Copenhagen should paste that sub-headline to their foreheads.   So, those who act like facists and call anyone who even raises a question a “global warming denier” and attacks them with closed ears and no answers, pipe down.  For those who run around saying that global warming is a “hoax” recognize that while some methodology may be corrupt, the conclusion may in fact have veracity and the fears well founded.  At the same time, everyone should realize that developing alternative forms of energy is a good thing.  Any time you can create energy in a cleaner, more efficient manner it is nothing but positive provided it can be economically feasible.  If the United States had renewable, home grown energy independence, that would not only potentially be a long term economic benefit, but must certainly an addition to national security. 

NAM Snow Total through 7 AM Monday

Weather Bottom Line:  As for the big snow storm…its not going to be a big snow storm for Louisville.  First off, the ground is not cold enough.  The models are still in great disagreement regarding rain or snow though it will in all liklihood start as rain before turning to snow on Saturday.  The GFS keeps on claiming over 2 inches but much of that falls when the layers just above the surface are above freezing.  The NAM continues to have more rain than snow.  It’s really tough.  Remember, the difference between one and two inches of snow would be .10″ of  liquid .20″ of liquid.  That’s not much wiggle room.  Guess here is that we have rain that washes away the brine solution put on the roads (thus wasting taxpayer money again) and that we get about an inch or so on grassy areas. 

This whole pattern is typical of an El Nino year with a low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and moving up into the Lower 48.  This can be a good pattern for Ohio Vally Snow if a low moves northeast out of SE Texas.  In this case though, it’s a low moving through the base of the trof along the Central Gulf Coast and moving up through Georgia and then exploding off the East Coast as it moves north.  The Appalacian mountains may get as much as two feet of snow.   I know that Apple Hill Farm the llamas and Alpacas are prepared, and Knox will love it…but Chi Chi will no doubt cower in fear.  As the low deepens while moving up the coast the cold front that moves through here on Saturday will catch up and there will be plenty of cold air in the Northeast Corridor to allow for the moisture tossed ashore by the low to create quite a snow storm. 

Now, its tough for moisture to come all the way from the Atlantic, across the mountains and to the Ohio Valley in much amounts.  But, there is expected to be about a half a foot in eastern Kentucky.  The next system that comes out of the Gulf for Christmas Eve has more promise, but its also possible that we get rain and maybe freezing rain.  Could be a mess…could be a White Christmas or could be just wet.  We’ll see. Needless to say, it will not be getting warm anytime soon.

Obama Declares Swine Flu National Emergency; Has 1918 Spanish Flu Returned? October 25, 2009

1918 Spanish Flu Ward-Is History Repeating?

The CDC reports in week 41, 12000 specimens were tested and nearly 5000 came back positive.  The number hospitalizations has risen from less than 500 to over 2500 in the past 7 weeks with a jump of about 67% in the past week alone.  The number of weekly deaths has gone from just over 25 7 weeks ago to nearly 100 in the past week with a week 40 to week 41 jump of about 30%.

H1N1 Cases Increasing Rather Rapidly

President Obama has declared a National Emergency regarding the Swine Flu outbreak.  This may come as a surprise to many Americans as it seems that we have been led to believe that the whole issue of the H1N1 “Swine Flu” was just a bunch of hype and its not that bad.  The number of cases reported in the United States is relatively small but is rising pretty rapidly. 

H1N1 Hospitalizations/Deaths Rising

Those number don’t sound like much but, according to the Department of Homeland Security, the Spanish Flu of the early 20th century was also an H1N1 strain.  It is interesting because in the text, they also refer to the Spanish Flu as a swine flu.  Is it the same thing? Is it like Michael Myers and come back again?  It’s hard to say.  I’ve seen some analysis reports claiming its not the same as the Spanish Flu.   But, the CDC reported that the Swine Flu (H1N1) is now widespread in 46 states in the nation and that so far, 20,000 people have been hospitalized with over 1000 dead.  The report does say that is pretty typical for the height of the flu season in the US but, it’s not the height of the flu season yet.  That is typically expected between the end of November and early March.  See, it’s that kind of thing that has me concerned.  And the numbers provided are only for those cases tested.  Let us hope that it is indeed just a little more difficult flu than typical and we don’t end up facing the same thing that the world faced 91 years ago.

Spanish Flu Death Chart 1918-1919

On This Date in History: In 1918, World War I (The Great War) was winding down. The Americans had gotten into the game and helped turn the tide against the Hun. About 15-20 Million people died in that global conflict. But, toward the end of the war, another killer was unleashed. What has been called the Spanish Flu Pandemic took about 50 million lives world wide according to the CDC with some estimates as high as 100 million. It got the moniker “Spanish Flu” because it reportedly took 8 million lives in that country in May 1918. However, the origin of the flu is a bit murky and it probably was not Spain. Indeed, researchers today are still trying to learn more about it. A couple of sources claim that it started at Fort Riley, Kansas when a soldier became sick just prior to his shipping out to Europe in March 1918. But, a more reliable source (Stanford University) claims that the virus probably became mutated in China into a strain that was resistant to any treatment. While one of the first cases in the US was the soldier who went to Europe from Fort Riley, Kansas it wasn’t until August 18, 1918 that the killer strain came to the shores of the new world. The Norwegian Liner Bergensfjord arrived in Brooklyn with a full load of passengers, including 100 who became ill on the voyage. Four of those had died and a fifth died after the ship docked making that pour sole the first US death from the Spanish Flu.

In 1918 Healthy Measures Encouraged for War Production Sake, not Public Heatlh

In the fall and spring, people in the US were dying daily. One day in Philadelphia, 528 people died and the bodies were collected by horse drawn carts. On “Black Thursday” in Chicago, nearly 400 died. Schools and theatres were closed and it was common to see people wearing face masks. On October 23, 1918, 815 people died from the flu in New York City. On This Date in 1918, 6000 new flu cases were reported in Ohio alone.   Officials were considering banning in-home Halloween activities. 

 The war was certainly an aspect of the world situation that sped up the spread of the virus. Many allies thought it was some sort of biological warfare set loose by the Germans. Curiously, the end of the war in November 1918 may have hastened its spread as people took to the streets to congregate and party to celebrate, thus raising the prospcts of it going from person to person. In the US, the deathtoll has been set between 650,000 and 700,000. This article concerning the death of David Baltimore on this date in 1918 says that 200,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu in October 1918 alone.

Look at huge US Life Expectancy Drop in 1918

Here’s the kicker…no one knows why this flu was so fatal. It affected about 1/3 of the total world population. Even President Wilson came down with it. Recently, tissue from a dead soldier who died from the virus was collected in an attempt to better understand it. Mysteriously, the flu pandemic ended abruptly in 1919….though some sources claim 1920. Either way, it came and went and nothing has come close to it again in scale and scope of the suffering it brought. In the US alone, the life expectancy statistics (see chart at left)  fell by 10 years. Because of the mystery of the Spanish Flu pandemic relating to the virus itself, its origin, its spread and its disappearance, researchers today are quite concerned about something new, like the bird flu and the Swine Flue. It is the reason why such drastic measures were taken to try to stop any hint of the bird flu in Asia before it could get into the human population and why the Swine Flu got such huge media attention at the outset. 

Employees at Schools in 1918 Took No Chances

At first, officials were pretty aggressive but as the year went on, it seems that the Swine Flu has become the butt of jokes for comedians.  They even changed the name to H1N1 Flu; perhaps in deference to pig owners and perhaps to make it sound not so menacing.  But, I’ve had 5% of my students in my class hospitalized in the first two months of the school year.  It’s not even winter time and I’m only talking about the first two months of the semester.  These are 20-somethings…typically the least vulnerable to sickness.  I have to say, I’m a bit concerned that the public may be taking the potential threat too lightly.

Wednesday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  Weather looks great for Sunday.  Monday there is a slight weakness in the atmosphere that may produce a few showers but I think it will mainly just create some clouds.  Wednesday evening, I believe rain chances will be greatly enhanced and I wouldn’t be surprised to see thunderstorm activity show up and even possibly have the boys at the Severe Storms Prediction Center have some sort of designation for our area.  We’ll have to wait to see how it shakes out.

Nuclear Arms Negotiations, Talk of Reduction or Elimination is No Time for Laughing Gas October 16, 2009

 

Has the Time Come or is it a Bad Idea?

 

Tepperman Says Obama Should Learn to Love the Bomb

There is a body of opinion that claims that nuclear weapons actually bring peace as a stablizing force.  Jonathan Tepperman added recently to the list of those who  that present that argument.  After all, since the US dropped atomic bombs on Japan there have been no world wars and in 30 years prior to their use, there had been two that cost at least 60 million lives and did untold economic destruction. But, the trouble with nuclear weapons is that, if they are used, then the consequences are grave. I mean, aside from the destruction brought about by the use of one, the only real reaction a nation could have would be to retaliate with another nuclear weapon and then it could escalate from there. So, President Obama recently went beyond his earlier call for the reduction of nuclear arsenals in Russia and the United States by 80 percent, but also a more ambitious proposal to eliminate nuclear weapons from the earth altogether. Trouble with that is, how do you get everyone to agree, how can you be sure the other guys don;’t have them, what do you do if someone does have them and how wise is it for the United States to give up its “big stick.”

 

 

 

Missile Shield Plan Off The Board But Russia Doesn't Seem to Want to Respond

Now, the US and Russia are in negotiations regarding a new nuclear arms agreement.  The Obama administration already changed course from a Bush-era program that proposed a anti-missile shield based in Eastern Europe.  The Russians saw that as a threat and so said that they would use nuclear weapons if threatened.  The Obama administration recently cancelled the anti-missile shield for Eastern Europe, angering some of the Eastern Europeans and some members of NATO.  It was seen as an olive branch of sorts to the Russians.  Sometimes, the other guy doesn’t go along.  The Russians now say that they will reserve the right to make a pre-emptive nuclear strike if it feels threatened.  Perhaps unilateral decisions will eventually bear fruit, but so far its hard to see how anything has changed with the change from a European based missile shield for the NATO allies and the new proposal, which would be for a ship based system.  If it weren’t for the Iranian nuclear program, the North Korean nuclear program, the trouble in Pakistan and India which are both part of the nuclear club this might make one chuckle as we talk about arms reduction or nuclear weapons bans.  But, the only way one can laugh in this developing situation may be to get a dose of laughing gas…

 

1839 Laughing Gas Party

On This Date in History: In the first half of the 19th Century, performers went around the country

Party Time For the Lady?

performing acts that showed the side effects of nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas.” A Georgia physician, Dr. Crawford Long attended a party in which the foolishness took place and was asked by friends if he could make up a batch for their own private fun. Long suggested the use of ether instead as he found it quite suitable for the desired effects. At that point, all across the Peach State laughter at parties was heard of people chuckling at each others stumbling and bumbling while high on ether. Long’s interest was piqued. He noted how people didn’t feel any pain.

Dr William Morton Died Young

One of the fellow party makers was James Venable who had a tumor. Now, at the time, the pain associated with surgery was totally based on how fast the surgeon could do his work. So, Long convinced Venable to try out the gas before he had his tumor removed. He agreed and on March 30, 1842 the tumor was removed successfully without pain. But, Long did not publish his findings right away as he was not fully convinced. Long’s conservative approach was probably a good idea.

Dentist Horace Wells in Hartford, CT attended a laughing gas show and recognized the potential of nitrous oxide. So, he jumped the gun and took his case to the Massachusetts General Hospital where the demonstration promptly went asunder and Wells was ridiculed as a fraud. That led to Dr. William Morton.

Dr. Morton had worked with Dr. Wells and had learned of the promise of ether’s numbing properties from chemist Dr. Charles Jackson. He tried it out on some patients to much success and he too went to Massachusetts General Hospital. He said he had discovered a new wonder drug. What he really had was the very same ether that Wells had, but he camouflaged it with aromic oils so it would alter the oder. On October 16, 1846 the chief of surgery at Massachusetts General removed a neck tumor and also performed a leg amputation. The surgeries were pain free and the age of anesthetics was here. Morton patented the formula hoping to get rich.

Emory Univ. Hospital Named for Dr. Crawford Long

But, Jackson and his supporters claimed they were the true discoverers. Morton in 1868 went to New York to defend his position against supporters of Jackson. He had a seizure and died. Upon seeing Morton’s tombstone that gave Morton credit for anesthetic, Jackson went insane and spent the rest of his life in an asylum. Then we have the fate of Dr. Wells, who jumped the gun with his demonstration. He became addicted to chloroform and his mind eroded. He ended up in jail and somehow got ahold of chloroform, soaked a clothe in it and covered his face after opening up his arteries. He quietly and painlessly bled to death.

As for perhaps the true pioneer of the use of anesthetics, Dr. Crawford Long? The one who was not bold enough to publish his findings? He continued as a general practitioner until 1878 when he died making a house call. Perhaps his caution and conservative approach was reflective of his life as those who went for the fame and fortune all died in bizarre and untimely manners. I wonder if those 3 would think that it was worth it?

 

Sat Eve. Cold High Pressure Building In

 

 

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you that the weather was gonna be lousy.  Tough to make an argument concerning Global Warming these days.  The clouds, rain and cold air will persist through early Saturday with maybe even some sleet in spots prior to Sunrise Saturday.  The precip will be tapering off but it should remain cloudy on Saturday with highs having a tough time getting to 50.  High pressure builds in Saturday night and chases away the clouds but Sunday morning church could be frosty with many people in the low 30′s if not some upper 20′s in the northern part of the viewing area.   Sunshine Sunday helps us get to the mid 50′s.  The big trof that brought all of the unseasonably cold air to the eastern part of the country will be lifting out and we really ought to have very pleasant conditions through Wednesday with temps climbing Monday afternoon to the low 60′s, then mid 60′s on Tuesday and maybe even to 70 on Wednesday.

First Census Computer Use Involved the President? White House “traditionally been involved?” September 2, 2009

1st Computer for Census-Tabulator for 1890 Census Invented by Herman Hollerith

Herman Hollerith

On this date in History:  Herman Hollerith went to a dance and met a young lady.  His dance partner must have been smitten because she invited him to home for dinner.  There, he met her father who was the head of the US Division of Vital Statistics for the 1880 census.  Her father told Herman that a machine using notched cards could more easily count census statistics rather than the cumbersome and time consuming method of counting by hand.  Herman’s curiosity was picqued.

Hollerith, who was just around 30 years old at the time, recalled receiving a train ticket that had a “punch photograph” on it. He described it as a description punch out.  With that in mind, he began figuring out how to make a punch card to record information and then follow up with a machine to be able to read the punch cards and calculate the results.  He tested his inventions against two different hand methods of counting and proved his machine was twice as fast.  Presumably it was also more accurate.  He went up against the likes of Alexander Graham Bell in bidding for the job of counting the 1890 census and won when Bell abandoned his attempt. 

Early Census Punch Card

 The census bureau rented 56 of Hollerith’s machines.  They ran on battery power with the batteries regularly recharged using Thomas Edison’s new electrical circuitry.  The New York Sun reported that “women are better adapted for this particular work than men” as they employed a bunch of “nice looking girls in cool white dresses” to do most of the work of punching hundreds of cards a day.  They tried men for awhile for the night shift but the men were confused and quickly dispatched.  While they were there, they managed to exchange flirtatious notes with the ladies.  That would get them sent to some board of inquiry today.  Anyway, one operator could count up to 80,000 people a day so the total of 62,622, 250 was reached on this date in 1890, just 6 weeks after counting began.  

The superintendent of the census bragged that “the bright young women and the sturdy young men of our Population Division could run thorugh the entire population of the earth…estimated at 1.3 billion, in less than 200 days.”  Now the Constitution only calls for a counting of people every 10 years.  Nowadays, you get a questionaire filled with all sorts of information.  And now the Obama Administration has put the collection  of all that data into the hands of the White House and out of the hands of the census bureau. 

Big Daddy Grover-Involved in 1890 Census?

While Mr. Hollerith ushered in the era of computer technology to the census business, inspired by “chicken salad”, I wonder what the founders would have to say about collection of so much data and then placing it directly into the hands of the President?  Newt Gingrich calls it a “Nixonian Power Grab.”   The Congressional Black Caucus says that the President should be involved to make sure that there is not an undercount, suggesting that the White House has ”traditionally been involved” in the census.   I found no mention of either our old pal Grover Cleveland or his successor, Benjamin Harrison being involved in the 1890 census.  But, that doesn’t mean that they weren’t.  What do you think…should the White House be involved or should this be left to the Herman Holleriths of the world?

Thursday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  A little bit of a surprise in that a shortwave is coming down through the flow and may trigger some afternoon showers or t’storms on a scattered basis.  We’re still pretty dry in the atmosphere and the main part of the short should be down to our south and southwest.  So, I would think that most people will stay dry.  There may be some leftover stuff bouncing around tonight and on Thursday, another little impulse does the same thing but is progged to be even farther away.  An isolated afternoon t’storm Thursday afternoon is still not totally unreasonable to expect but for the most part, it probably won’t be over your house…consider yourself lucky or unlucky if it is, depending on your situation.  My sunflowers need some water so it would be nice but its probably the best chance that they will see.  We should start to see more consistent temperatures in the low 80′s through the weekend, nights not quite as cool and humidity levels slowly rising.

With Obama Energy Bill Looming, Some Data Contradicts Global Warming Conventional Wisdom June 26, 2009

Maybe these cute guys like to swim and maybe their ice islands are getting smaller due to Mother Nature…possibilities that Mr. Gore doesn’t want you or anyone else to examine.

Is the Global Warming Issue Really Settled Science?

(EDIT: I really don’t need to do this but I am doing so for the benefit of one person. As you read below, nowhere will you find that I deny Global Warming.  My position, as this clearly points out, is for an honest, open and full debate, which is traditional in scientific circles. Open minds on all sides. My contention is that mankind often thinks he has an answer only to find that  we knew nothing.  I only wish people would stop using false methodology to push their position.  I would also encourage, if you like, to check out a definition of libel.)

Obama and Gore At the Same Table

Yesterday, President Obama made a speech that urged the passing of his Energy Bill,which some are calling a Global Warming Bill.  Much of it is based on the assumption that mankind is the cause of Global Warming, that there are dire consequences to Global Warming andthat mankind can and should do something to stop Global Warming.  Many would say that its based on speculation and others will suggest that the bill’s policy features, such as cap and trade, is more of a political move than anything substantive. 

It’s rather ironic that, on the same day the President made this speech, some information came from our friend Anthony Watts regarding temperatures at the North Pole.  Global Warming is supposed to cause the melting of the ice caps. 

Watts Says Arctic Coldest in 50 years

However, over the past  18-24 months, there has actually been an increase in polar ice following an all time recorded low.  Last year, there were all sorts of reports that the Arctic Ice cap might disappear completely over the summer.  That obviously did not come close to occurring.    Well, Watts reports that the average Arctic temperature has not risen above freezing which is the latest that its’ been that cold in 50 years.   He also reported that a source inside the EPA says that scientific claims are being suppressed and ignored within the EPA. 

I don’t know if it’s suppression, but the story over the past year of an undersea volcano potentially causing Arctic ice melt sure didn’t get much play…not as much as the fear that the ice cap would melt altogether last summer.   In fact, in another ironic twist, on this date in 2008, National Geographic published an article regarding the under-Arctic volcanoes that previously mankind thought was impossible.  The undersea volcano is apparently is very large and has been spewing extremely hot lava perhaps as high as two kilometers through the water.  This volcano was discovered a few years ago by accident. There had been some who had suspected that the ridge under the Arctic was oozing molten lava but no one had a clue that it was exploding with such force. One article says the eruptions are similar to the one that buried Pompeii.

Contour Map Under Arctic

Before I list a bunch of links that you can check out for yourself, I want to go back to something that I harp on. And that is that we, especially as Americans, tend to lose humility as humans and think we know everything and start talking in absolutes. Someone (Gore) goes and makes a movie, that includes secretly computer generated scenes of melting ice, and claims that all that needs to be known is known and the debate is declared over. That smacks of totalitarianism, elitism and also is an un-American effort to stifle debate in a free society. I mean, it comes from the same people who claim to be for tolerance. They tend to tolerate what they deem is acceptable and want to squash opposing viewpoints.

Once again, we find that we don’t know everything but act as if we do. Mankind is limited in it’s knowledge and incapable of dealing in absolutes. Previously I posted about the building blocks of life coming from inorganic sources from the ocean floor. Who knew? Now we find that there is a giant heat source under the Arctic that may be responsible for the rapid ice melt. Who knew? As it turns out, you’ll find in some of the links that some people did ponder the warming of ocean waters from below being the cause as they had a theory that ocean warming caused the end of the last ice age.

Did Al Conviently Leave Facts Out of his "Documentary?"

What rankles me is that this discovery was made in 2004, before the supposed documentary An Inconvenient Truth was made. If the makers didn’t know about it they should have and if it were truly a documentary and not political propaganda to push a point of view, then they would have mentioned the possibilities. And of course, the national media has focused on the topic du jour, Global Warming, and have not even sniffed at this story that first came out in 2004.

Anyway…off my soap box. Here are some links to recent articles.

Canada-Arctic Seabed Afire With Lava Spewing Volcanoes

This one apparently has been saying it’s ocean warming for quite some time.

Ice Age Now

Within that page is an article from 2007 that says a USC study shows that ocean warming and not global warming caused the end to the last ice age

USC Study

Here is an article from the National Science Foundation in 2004 that reported the accidental discovery of the volcanic activity. This was before An Inconvenient Truth was released, yet the report was ignored.

National Science Foundation

Here’s one from a site that has more of a political edge but is informative with maps and such.

The Strata-Sphere

And this one is the most recent that seems to have gotten some attention. It’s a bit political too but it has an interesting chart that shows a drop in Arctic Ice that coincides with the time of when the scientists think that the volcano erupted in 1999.

American Thinker-Arctic Ice Melt May be Due to Undersea Volcanoes

The young Bride

On This Date in History:

The most prolific President of all time got back in the saddle on this date in 1844 when President John Tyler wed his twenty-four year old second wife,Julia. The 54 year-old widower had lost his wife several months prior. She had lost her father in a cannon accident just two months prior to the wedding. You can read about the whole incident and other details on my earlier account regarding John Tyler. Bottom line is that President Tyler is the only President to be married while in office. The couple wed in secret to avoid the 19th century of the Paparazzi andbecause she was supposed to be in mourning over her father’s death and most people don’t think marrying the President of the United States as being a good exhibition of mourning. The  didn’t have much time left in office as his term was up in 8 months. But that didn’t mean that John couldn’t still get it done. He had 7 children by is first wife of 29 years. He had 8 more by his second wife. In all, he had 15 children. One was 5 years older than his 2nd wife and 45 years older than the youngest. Who says Jimmy Carter is the most accomplished former President?

Weather Bottom Line:   We had over an inch and a half of rain officiallly at the airport in the early morning hours Friday.  The lightning was pretty frequent as the thunder woke me up and I recall seeing the flashes of light with my eyes closed.    I saw a tv weather guy on Thursday night that there might be a couple of “poppers” overnight.  Uh….it was more than that.  Also, he used a term that is a pet peave of mine.  He kept referring to cold fronts as “cool” fronts.  There is no such thing.  When people do such things, I can usually ascertain where they received their academic background in Meteorlogy.  Anyway, the photos above are from last Thursday via the NWS and WDRB-TV.  Notice on the one shot the reflection in the windows of the building of the lightning that is hitting the Ohio River.  Here are expanded views of the lightning.

We should have sinking air behind the storms so I doubt if we will have anything for the rest of the day.  Saturday looks good but it will still be hot.  It’s Sunday we get another cold front that will provide a risk for strong storms again and then lower temperatures behind it for the first part of next week….probably about 10 degrees or so.

Mole Not a Spy, But a Patriot! American Opines Obama is “sort of God” after Russian Says Obama is Gorbachev June 11, 2009

Is This What Evan Thomas Means When He Said Obama is "sort of God?"

A Few Days Ago, we found that a Russian Op-ed piece in Pravda said that President Obama was the American version of Mikhail Gorbachev who was the last communist leader and Premier of the Soviet Union. Now, not necessarily in rebuttle, American editor of Newsweek magazine Evan Thomas says that President Obama is “sort of God.” (text and video) Are these two statements compatible or must we assume that someone is wrong? Either way, the dynamic of opinion regarding our 44th President is very interesting.

Look at this photo carefully. It’s not a drawing. It’s a photo taken from a 70 foot tower On This Date in 1918 by Arthur Mole. He got some 21,000 soldiers at Camp Sherman in Chillicothe, Ohio to stand in formation such that it looked like President Wilson from his perch above. It seems like to me these guys were supposed to be “army training” as Bill Murray said in Stripes. But, somehow they found time to fill in a carefully detailed outline on the ground. Mole then got a megaphone and barked instructions. One soldier was so excited about standing around for the photo that he wrote his mother, “Hey Mom! I was part of President Wilson’s left eyebrow today.” I guess it was a nice diversion to the prospect of going “over there” to fight World War I. Then again, maybe they never went overseas because the war was over by the end of the year and Mole went on to use thousands of soldiers to pose for numerous patriotic pictures. I can hear it now, “what did you do in the Great War, Grandpa?….I stood around and represented a dot on huge human portraits!” It’s kinda silly but kinda cool too. Mole inspired innovative ideas in photography in the 20th century. Here are some other photos that he took…all with soldiers standing in the proper place. Click on each thumbnail to get the full photo. Remember, a lot of this was done in the first quarter of the 20th century.

SPC Convective Outlook Thur to Fri AM

SPC Severe Wind Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  As it turns out, that little appendage that I referred to on Wednesday morning kinda blew up after the sun came up and we had some pretty hefty rain.  Snow White and I had a tree get hit by lightning about 150 feet ahead of us as we pulled into a driveway.  It lit up orangish, reddish, pinkish and a puff of smoke came up from its base.  I went to examine the tree though and found no evidence of a lightning strike.  Good thing for us we were in the Bob Mobile.  But, it does reinforce that its not  a good idea to be running around in the rain.  Lightning is one of the leading weather killers.  Anyway, I saw someone on TV Wednesday night say we may have a rough night due to storms in Indiana.  Well, this person was right but for the wrong reason.  That guy was lifting northeast.  It was the guy down in the bootheel of Missouri that came through as it weakened around 2:30 am that got us.  Decent lightning.  Nit and Wit, my kitties, snuggled up with Snow White and I as they are not too fond of lightning and thunder. 

SPC Severe Hail Probability

You will note on the SPC Convective outlook that our region remains in the slight risk for severe t’storms.  There is one more wave that will move up along the boundary late Thursday and Thursday night.  Possible, but not necessarily probable for us to get some bad stuff.  Guess is that the orientation of the boundary may shift the threat to our southeast.  But, I can certainly see elevated storms being a potential problem with gusty winds being drawn down and hail being an issue.  Afternoon clouds will inhibit stuff but as the shortwave moves through it may initiate activity elsewhere and bring it through.  In fact, I will be surprised if we don’t get at least another round of rain. 

Once the wave moves along, the boundary will get energized in its wake and drift South.  That should give us a decent Friday.  Saturday, some of the models want to introduce some return activity here but I’m going along with the solution that a wave on Saturday is approaching and grabbing the front to bring back toward us from the Southwest.  T’storms late Saturday and into Sunday would be the outlook.  Then, we’re somewhat unsettled again for the first part of next week.

SPC tornado probability

One note….the Canadian model seems to want to create a tropical low and move it into the Gulf in a few days.  The other long range models don’t have that and it would be a bit odd to take a guy through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf this time of year.  But its out there.  Doubt its real, but who knows.  A squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
  
   VALID 111630Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM N TX ENEWD TO VA…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS…
  
   …MIDDLE TN EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON…
   A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS MOVING EWD OVER MIDDLE TN AS OF LATE MORNING.
   THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW…AND IS PRECEDED BY A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   EXPECT THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCV TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
   WHILE SPREADING EWD OVER ERN TN AND ADJACENT AREAS…WITH A
   CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   ADDITIONALLY…THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/BRIEF
   TORNADOES WHERE THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTERSECTS AND MOVES EWD
   ALONG A RESIDUAL E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN TN…IN THE WAKE OF
   THE WEAKENING CLUSTER NOW APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE.
  
   …S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO CENTRAL VA/NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON…
   THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING OVERNIGHT MCS ARE CROSSING THE BLUE
   RIDGE AS OF 16Z…AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN
   PA/MD/CENTRAL VA/NRN NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE RATHER POOR OVER THE REGION /AOB 6 C/KM BASED ON 12Z
   SOUNDINGS/…BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR SEVERE
   STORMS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS VA AND NC.  THE NWD EXTENT OF THE
   STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT CLOUDS FROM
   NRN VA INTO SRN PA.  MEANWHILE…STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW
   ACCOMPANIES THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING OVER VA FROM THE
   W…AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT NEW STORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
   IN A N-S BAND ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES
   EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS…THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE.
  
   …NW/N CENTRAL INTO E TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT…
   ONGOING CONVECTION IN N/NE TX IS BEING MAINTAINED BY WAA ABOVE THE
   SHALLOW COLD POOL GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS.
   THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/…WHILE OTHER SOUNDINGS TO THE S REVEALED A
   LITTLE STRONGER CAP.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS GIVEN AN EXPECTED WEAKENING OF
   THE SWLY LLJ THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THIS CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER…DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND
   NEW COLD POOL GENERATION COULD ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO ROOT CLOSER TO
   THE SURFACE AND BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SEWD AS AN MCS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
  
   FARTHER W/NW…A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE INTO NW TX…WHERE THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE WWD
   EXTENSION OF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE N TX STORMS.  STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEW POINTS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SE TX PANHANDLE ESEWD INTO NW TX.
    DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS…AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS RIDING
   ESEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE SOMEWHAT
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL COINCIDE
   THIS EVENING.
  
   …ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH TONIGHT…
   MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CO TODAY AS
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MORE ELY/SELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
   A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM UT/AZ.  LAPSE RATES ARE
   RELATIVELY POOR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT…BUT
   DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
   LOW-MID 50S WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   THIS MODEST INSTABILITY…IN COMBINATION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AOA 50 KT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING…WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS FORMING
   JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING EWD ONTO THE PLAINS OF ERN CO.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
   THREAT…THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   FARTHER E INTO WRN KS.
  
   ..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 06/11/2009

Cops Called to McDonalds Over Lost Orange Juice. GM Bankruptcy and Here Come the Brides May 29, 2009

New Chairman of General Motors?

Where’s My Orange Juice? I’m calling the Cops!! We recently had a story of a Texas woman who called 911 because the fast foot joint she went to didn’t have enough shrimp on her order as she thought that she deserved. (story I want my shrimp) Now, we have an Oregon man who ordered a meal at a drive through line at McDonalds. (Orange Juice Story with Video) He was supposed to have a box of orange juice and the clerk neglected to include it. If something like that happens to me, I drive back and go back to the store to retrieve the missing item. Not this guy. He called 911 arguing somehow that this is a case of freedom of speech. Are we becoming a society of whiners that if we don’t get our way, instead of finding a resolution on our own that we need to call government authorities to save us?

Maybe Harpo Is The New Chief

GM filing for Bankruptcy:  On May 15, 2009 the New York Post reported that the original proposal from GM to reorganize was for the labor unions to get 39% of the new company, the Federal Government to get about 50% control and existing shareholders would get the rest.  If you were one of the bondholders, those who took the risk to finance the $27 billion in debt, you would get way less than the 10% stake in the company that you hoped for.  More recently, the reports have the new deal sporting an 18% stake by the labor unions and the US and Canadian governments gaining a 70% stake in the company with Uncle Sam receiving the lion’s share.  Again, bond holders would get pennies on the dollar.  Today, it was announced that GM would become the largest company in history to file for bankruptcy.  It will be interesting to see what the final outcome will be.  But one thing appears certain and that is that the workers and union will own the vast majority of the new GM.  President Obama says he’s not into socialism and that he has no interest in the government running the auto companies. 

Chico at GM Helm?

He’s fired the head of General Motors, as would be the right of the person or entity in charge and now the government will take a huge stake in the company, labor will own the next largest stake and those who used their private money to invest will get nearly nothing.  Perhaps the long term plan is operating on the assumption that, over time, the stock price will rise and Uncle Sam will then divest itself of GM at a tidy profit.  FDR did something similar to this and the goverment did in fact eventually make a profit.  But, no one has publically stated this is the plan.  I suspect that is the objective but it should not come at the expense of private investors.  And besides, do you really think the Taxpayers will get a return of the profits? Not directly, of course, but the government will retain the return on the investment.   A potential consequence of this and the actions of the government taking control of the banks is that other nations look to the US as the proverbial “beacon on the hill.”  In recent years, other governments have decided it was best to back off of government control of businesses but, now that they see the US government changing relationship with capitalism and free markets, they perhaps will or are reconsidering their move toward freedom and back toward their old ways.  So, we’ll have the government and the workers owning GM.

UAW Black Lake Golf Course Clubhouse

The Wall Street Journal on May 21 reported that the UAW has $1.2 billion in assets.  At the end of 2007, $871 million was in the strike fund.  But, it also included a $3 million townhouse in Washington, DC and a $33 million golf course and resort on a lake.  Now they will be able to add about a 1/5 interest in an auto manufacturer that gets propped up by the American taxpayer.  Workers unite and fight those fat cats who live in million dollar homes and belong to country clubs!  If ideals were followed, then the adage of President Lincoln would apply which is that “a house divided against itelf cannot stand.”  Nevertheless, ideals and reality sometimes seem to be at odds. 

On This Date In History:  Asa Mercer was already the president of Washington Territory’s first university by the time he was in his mid twenties.  The Pacific Northwest had great natural resources attracting miners and lumbermen from around the nation.  But…there was a scarcity of women.  Mercer decided to fix that by placing an ad in a Seattle newspaper promising to find a wife for every man who paid $300 toward bringing a woman from the East.  A New York magazine hailed Mercer as a modern day Moses.  Skeptics suggested that the women would have nothing to do and their trade would be something less than honorable.  Mercer assured that the ladies would be employed as schoolmistresses and nothing more.  Those same skeptics wondered how they could all be school teachers if there were no children to teach.

Joan Blondell Well Before Her Role On Brides

Nevetheless, Mercer sailed a ship from Seattle and found he had some 300 adventurous ladies willing to take the trip.  However, by the time he was to set sail from New England, in January 1866, the number of volunteers had fallen to 100.  I guess they had second thoughts.  Those on board became even more fickle when they began romancing with the ships’s crew.  When they stopped in Chile, many became enamoured with the military officer’s stationed at Lota, Chile.  Apparently, one of Mercer’s ladies rode a spirited pony to the delight of onlookers such that 17 proposed marriage.   So, now Mercer had to deal with women who didn’t want to leave the crew and others who didn’t want to leave their Chilean suitors.  So, he set sail at night and secretly stole away…to keep his cargo from getting stolen away.  When they got to San Francisco, he lost 11 who got off and never returned.

On This Date in 1866, Asa Mercer arrived in Seattle with what was left of his precious cargo.  Many of the subscribers who had paid $300 were chagrined when they found out that their payment didn’t guarantee a woman.  One man was quite upset when the specific woman whom he had asked for showed up and turned out to be a different woman by the same name.  Undeterred, the man said, “All I want is a wife, and if you are willin’ I would as soon take you as the other woman.”  Such romantic overtones went unheeded as the woman replied simply, “I do not wish to marry, sir.”

It wasn’t a total disaster for the operation or for Asa Mercer.  Annie Stephens from Baltimore was one of the first to be married.  Her husband?  Asa Mercer.

Brown (top left) and Leonard (top right) Star Trek Veterans; Blondell (top center) Former Hollywood Siren

This little tale was no doubt the inspiration for the late 1960′s TV show, Here Come the Brides.  The photo above is of the Bolt brothers, Jeremy, Joshua and Jason as well as Candy, a girl with whom Jeremy was smitten.  Jeremy was played by Bobby Sherman, who was a teen idol.  His acting career went no where and after watching the tv show, you might find out why.  He tried his hand at singing and that too went nowhere.  Joshua was played by David Soul who later was one of the rogue young cops in Magnum Force.  I think Clint helped him exit the movie violently.  Later he gained fame for his role in Starsky and Hutch.  He capitalized  on that fame by singing a stupid song that was in the top 40.  Jason Bolt was played by Robert Brown who was an accomplished stage actor.  He is known perhaps more by his role in a Star Trek episode in which he played a guy named Lazarus.  I think that was the last we saw of him. Maybe he got the Star Trek gig by way of Mark Lenard, who plays Sarek in the 23rd century but was Aaron Stemple in Seattle in the 19th Century.  I have no idea who Candy was nor what happened to her.

I want to know what happened to Captain Clancy.  It seems to me that aside from Lenard and Soul, Here Come the Brides was the graveyard for actors though it was a pretty accurate show because, like the Asa Mercer story, it didn’t seem there were too many marriages.

(Snow White thinks I am too hard on Bobby Sherman in this…I told you he was a teen idol)

SPC Convective Outlook For May 30, 2009

SPC: 15% probability of Severe Weather Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  There has been talk out there from some place of some terrible weather on Saturday.  Don’t fall for it.  It’s possible that we could get some interesting storms but there is no support at all from the data to suggest any major tornado outbreak or anything like that.  To our Northwest, there will be a dynamical set up that should induce  stronger t’storms.  There is even an indication from the GFS that a small shortwave comes down our way from that region late in the day on Saturday.  Because of this feature, the GFS is doing what it always seems to do and that provide a forecast of the vertical indicies to be pretty healthy, but not really the SWEAT index too much or others that would suggest tornadic activity.  What it does show would be the potential for hail.  I think its the greatest threat should this materialize.  That would also have a fair amount of lightning and even maybe some strong wind gusts.  It only throws out a half inch of rain.  The NAM is putting out over 1.6 inches of rain and even carries light rain through Saturday night and early Sunday.  The truth will probably be in between with maybe some t’storms in the afternoon though not overly troublesome but also, not with as much rain.   Nevertheless, the threat of severe weather is sufficient enough in the eyes of the SPC to put out a slight risk for our area.  I find most curious the mention of potential isolated supercells and a tornado threat. 

Otherwise, the pleasant Friday temperatures will generally hold through the weekend and then we get hot and humid for early next week with highs pushing toward 90 and the moisture getting somewhat uncomfortable and overnight lows not so low.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009
  
   VALID 301200Z – 311200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS KY…MIDDLE TN…SW OH…SRN
   IND…IL…NRN MO AND FAR NE KS…
  
   …LOWER OH VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD
   INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC…A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
   BE LOCATED FROM NRN MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL KY SATURDAY.
   GFS/NAM/NAMKF AND SREF MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
   LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS
   IL…SRN IND AND WRN KY IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL
   JET. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OR NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
   OF THE CLUSTER SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL KY
   AT 21Z SATURDAY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AT THIS TIME…CONVECTIVE
   MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN
   ORGANIZE…THEN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
   LINE-SEGMENTS ARE FAVORED…THEN THE PREDOMINANT THREAT COULD BE
   WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM. IF THE TIMING IS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS
   MAXIMIZED…THEN THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
  
   FURTHER WEST ACROSS NRN MO…MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOPS STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
   ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
   MO…LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW
   STORMS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
  
   …LOWER MICHIGAN…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY
   AS A 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   SEWD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH COLD
   AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND -20 C/ SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
  
   …SRN FL PENINSULA…
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE
   SOUTH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F…MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN SRN FL SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 850 MB COULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
  
   …NRN CA/SRN ORE/NW NV…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NWRN
   STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE
   RIDGE IN THE SIERRAS AND IN THE CASCADES OF CNTRL ORE BY AFTERNOON
   AS SFC TEMPS WARM. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW /20 KTS OR
   LESS/…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING.
  
   ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2009

Did Bill Ayers Write Obama’s Book? Is Palin Really a Tax Raiser? Did Mars Attack? October 30, 2008

A MARTIAN INVASION!!!!

The weather turned out as expected. The winds were sufficient to keep the mercury from falling too far on Wednesday morning. The low in Louisville at the airport was 34 and the NWS office was 32. Other areas were similar with many around the freezing mark, a few in the uper 20′s and the cooperative observer at Bradfordsville in the extreme Southeastern part of the viewing area getting down to 24, which seems rather odd but other nearby places around Campbellsviille being 26. I guess the wind wasn’t as strong there. A frosty start Thursday will mark the end of the chilly conditions. We’ll have an inversion over us on Thursday afternoon so the highs will be in the low 60′s but we jump to the upper 60′s and low 70′s for Halloween and that type of regime will continue through the weekend. No rain in sight until the middle of next week.

Louisville's Christina Fougnie Stars in Clancy

Shot In Metro Louisville

Local Movie of Note: Snow White and I had dinner with Jefferson and Kelly Moore the other night. Jefferson Moore is a local actor who, with his wife, have formed a production company. They have made two films that have done quite well world-wide on video and it was adapted into a tv series. It’s called The Perfect Stranger and the two movies are available in Blockbuster or directly from Kellyfilmworks. The movies and series were shot in the Louisville Metro Area with much of the cast being local talent. Coming next is Clancy which is a very heartwarming story. It too was filmed in the Louisville Metro Area and you may recognize some of the cast, including the star, 12-year-old Christina Fougnie. They are working on distribution and it may be in a theatre near you or on TV in the near future. But, if you CLICK HERE you can get a sneak preview. It’s a good flick for the whole family and, while it is quite uplifting, it’s not something that will send the community into hair-raising pandemonium like

Orson Welles did On This Date In History:

A Vicious Invader?

The Martians Invaded on this date in 1938…at least that’s what millions of Americans thought. A young 23 year old radio man named Orson Welles presented a show on CBS radio. He began by saying it was an adaptation of H.G. Wells’ War of the Worlds. It began at 8 pm. But a whole bunch of people were listening to Edgar Bergen and his dummy, Charlie McCarthy on NBC. Bergen’s routine ended at 8:12 and many switched to CBS. By then the radio-play was already going so they missed the opening disclaimer. Welles’ production had some sort of regular sounding broadcast with a weather report followed by some cheesy music that went on for some time before a reporter broke in with a report (I don’t think they called it “breaking news” then) and he said there were explosions on Mars. Then more music followed by another break in with a hysterical “reporter” describing ugly Martians getting into large machines that rose out of the ground with long tentacles. It reported that the machines fired heat rays and destroyed a national guard unit, dropped deadly gas bombs and they were destroying everything.

People thought it was real. Some went bananas and jammed the highways looking to get out of

Orson So Good He Caused Mayhem

town. CBS had Welles break in and remind everyone it was fiction, but no one listened. The panic was on. Reports of suicides came in but there was no confirmation. Congress naturally had to investigate and found nothing was wrong. Welles thought his career was over. Instead, he got a cinematic contract which led to his production of Citizen Kane which has regularly topped the list as the best movie ever made.

Like Welles, sometimes we create the worst in our mind when, in fact, the best is just around the corner. If you are discouraged or feeling that you’ve made a terrible mistake, keep your head up. You don’t know what the future holds and today’s set back may just be the foundation for tomorrow’s success.

Political Tidbits worth reading:

Used a Ghost Writer?

The weather is quiet so I’m taking the opportunity to bring up a couple of questions posed by some writers of such things. Just some items to consider.

Senator Obama wrote a memoir Dreams From My Father. It has been well received by critics. However, this writer raises the question of who wrote Dreams From My Father? He presents evidence and a point of view that Senator Obama could not have written it and suggests that none other than Bill Ayers wrote it.

Here is the article-decide if the writer Jack Cashill makes his case.

Governor Sarah Palin has run on a record of standing up to the oil companies. She is

Raised Taxes and Cut Hockey?

running on a platform of cutting taxes. The top part of her ticket, Senator McCain, has been charged with wanting to cut corporate taxes. Yet, Governor Palin raised taxes on oil production in her state. This writer raises the question is Sarah Palin a tax cutter? The article suggests that not only did she raise taxes, but did so when the state was running a budget surplus of over a billion dollars and that, in spite of the budget surplus and projected overwhelming growth of tax revenue, she cut some programs…including funding for a local hockey association…by a “hockey mom.”

Here is the article by Alison Fitzgerald-decide if she made her case

I put these types of things in here from time to time because it seems to me that we hear all of these things on TV in commercials and speeches but really don’t get the details or in depth analysis. It makes it difficult to figure out what is truth, what is spin and what is total fabrication. I short, it is my view that the media has done a poor job in providing information to the public concerning this election. These two articles just seem to touch on some issues that may provide some things to consider.

Nasty Politics and Nice Weather October 10, 2008

TR Heads to Vacation During Crisis

Tis the Fall Season: A year ago we were experiencing record heat in the 90′s. It’s not going to be that hot but its also not much of a fall so far. We’ve had a couple of cool days but generally we’ve had cool nights and warm afternoons in the 80′s and that trend will continue through the weekend. It will be fabulous.

Tis the Political Season: So much for George H. W. Bush’s attempt in 1992 to become “kinder and gentler.” Our political discourse on the surface seems to have gone down the tubes.

There is the story of the Sheriff in Florida who got on stage and referred to Senator Obama by his legal full name. That sheriff is now under Federal Investigation for violation of the Hatch Act which prohibits public officials from using their position to influence an election. Seems the Feds are reacting to a bunch of negative phone calls. He could lose his job and the county could lose up to $300,000 in funding.

Here’s the story of the Federal Investigation with video

There is the story that Governor Palin accusing her of using racist verbiage in her stump speeches.

Palin’s Words Carry Racial Tinge-AP

Then there is the story of children allegedly being “indoctrinated” into the Obama camp by a teacher who had the kids line up in t’shirts and camouflaged pants while chanting words that allegedly sing the praises of Senator Obama. The teacher has been suspended.

Teacher Suspended Over Video of Students’ Obama Chants-with video

Jefferson Constitution Destroyer?

All of this might make one think that this is unprecedented. Well, it’s not. In the cartoon to the left, Thomas Jefferson is portrayed as attempting to burn the Constitution in fire fed “by the flames of radical writings” before the altar of Gallic despotism. The American eagle and God are attempting to prevent him from doing so. Abraham Lincoln was often referred to as a “Baboon” as he was seen by his rivals as a simpleton and also they made reference to his long and lanky physical appearance. In an event that may bring to mind current circumstance, President Tyler vetoed a measure to re-establish the Bank of the United States and on August 16, 1841, President Tyler was burned in effigy outside the White House….and it was mostly members of his own party who did the burning! Of course, who can forget my old buddy Grover Cleveland? As part of the campaign against him, the charge was that he fathered an illegitimate child and that too made it into the cartoon pages. A topic of lampooning is always the subject of presidential vacations. Teddy Roosevelt (at top) was mocked for going on vacaton to Pine Knot, Virginia during a big coal strike. The list goes on all the way through President Clinton to President GW Bush. The point here is that this type of harsh political discourse is not new. It’s just that now, instead of pamphlets and drawings or actual effigy burnings, we have the internet and video to do the job.

Daddy Grover?

We also hear about lack of voter turn out. Well, in the 1824 election, only 16% of eligible voters turned out to vote for President. Election participation increased though after that. However, curiously, the 1860 presidential election only turned out 72% of the vote, which seems odd since it was an election that would determine secession. It was during Reconstruction that voter turn out topped the 80% mark and then declined thereafter to the 50% to 65% range In the 20th Century, it appears that several states did not have such a high turnout. Alabama, for instance, did not have a 50% turn out in the 1900′s until the 1980′s. Prior that it was often the case that turnout was way less. From 1904 to 1960, average turnout in Alabama averaged about 25% with a lowpoint in 1924 of 13.3%. There are other examples from other states that were similar. Here is a list of tables regarding voter turnout.

In this time of economic unrest and political electioneering turmoil, don’t fall into despair. It can be considered the American way. I told you before about a financial situation in 1907 that had some similarities to today. The market fell 40% over that year of turmoil and from the Dow Peak of Oct 9, 2007 to Oct 9, 2008 the Dow has fallen about 35%. We got the ship righted then and probably will again. There will be change. Back then the 1907 “bailout” led to the creation of the Federal Reserve. Who knows what will happen this time? But in all probability, we will emerge stronger. Politically, we are not hanging Presidents in effigy and the discourse is tough, but not really much different than the past. Hang in there, we will press on.