Arctic Sea Ice Shows Extensive Growth in March 2010 April 6, 2010

NSIDC March 2010 Sea Ice Extent Near 1979-2000 Average-Challenge to Conventional Wisdom?

Arctic Ice Continued Growth in March 2010

Global temperatures this winter on average were up for 2009-2010 but the March Arctic Ice Growth was perhaps unprecedented and much of Northern Asia, Northern Europe and parts of the United States had exceedingly harsh winters while Canada and Greenland were exceedingly warm.    In February, the North Pole Arctic Ice extent appeared to have continued a trend of slow growth from the 2006 lowest recorded maximum ice extent.  Back in 2004, there were several reports concerning undersea volcanic activity that could account for warming Arctic ocean temperatures, but these reports were not widely brought to the public view by the media.   Nevertheless, since the low maximum in March 2006 which followed the lowest Arctic Ice Extent minimum ever recorded in 2005.  Then in 2007, a new record low minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent was observed.   This led to trumpeting in the media that 2008 could result in an ice free Arctic.   If I recall, when I reviewed these media reports, I found that the headline did not match the rhetoric.  A few scientists had said that there was a 1 in 4 chance of that happening, which is hardly a prediction that it would occur.   Not only did that headline prove to be false, but the 2008 Arctic Sea Ice minimum was greater than the previous year.  I noted that, instead of saying that it had grown, the headline from the National Snow and Ice Data Center was that it was the “second lowest” of all time.  The headline was true but they chose the negative presentation over the positive depiction which may speak volumes.  In my mind, headlines should be absent of adjectives that may create bias perceptions one way or the other.

March 2010 3rd Consecutive March To Buck the Long Term Trend Line

Since those days of gloom and doom, the reports have consistently come forth with the reference point always being the lowest.  I”m not sure if I have ever seen a sentence that simply says the ice is growing.  In March 2010, the NSIDC reported that the Arctic Ice Extent in February “continued to track below average” and near those dismal levels of 2007.  But, the numbers were slightly higher and at the end of the month, there was a slight rise that was not noted in the text.  Later, we find that the February Arctic Ice Extent was the “fourth lowest February extent” which means it was higher than 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was lower than 2008 and 2009.   As it turns out, something happened.  As the month of March rolled on,  that little rise at the end of February that was seemingly dismissed continued on through March such that the March ice extent almost reached the 1979-2000 average that is used as a  baseline.  I do not recall the ice extent of any month coming close to that level in recent memory.  I suppose qualitative adjectives only apply for negative news because the April 6, 2010 NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent report used a more balanced headline than it had in previous reports of low ice.    Instead it simply says, “Cold snap causes late-season spurt growth.”  The text of the report does not point out but, this is the 3rd consecutive March to be well above the long term trend line.  This should bring good news of cheer, I would think.  Just 2 years ago, the media was writing about Santa Claus floating away and now we see a huge growth in the ice extent and the latest date of the maximum extent since monitoring began. 

Global Temperature Anomalies Dec-Feb 2010

Nevertheless, I find very little of a positive nature in the report and I think that is the correct approach.  It is good to be cautious in a humble silent admission that we do not have a full understanding of how the earth’s climate operates.  Just report the facts.  But, in the past, there has been a decided negative tilt.  Even in this report, there is talk of how the long term trend is still down and that the overall temperatures were still above average for the Arctic were above average, but it does note that the temperatures in Northern Europe and Siberia were below average.  It probably would have been more accurate to say they were “well below average,” yet again, they seem to pick and choose when to use qualifying adjectives.  If you look at the seasonal temperature map to the right, you notice that all of Siberia was at least 5 degrees C below average and that the rest of Northern Europe was between 3-5 degrees C below average.  That represents an enormous land mass.  Now, Canada was some 3-4 degrees warmer but much of the United States was 2-4 degrees colder.  Air temperatures over the ocean were generally warmer than average but not to the extent of the land anomalies.  For some reason, we had a long wave pattern that gave persistent cold to large land areas in the Northern hemisphere with a somewhat smaller land area covered by warmer temperatures.  Overall, the global temperatures were warmer. If you look at the map, you notice that almost the entire Southern Hemisphere was warmer during the peiriod, which is largely ocean areas.  The exception is the oceans surrounding Antarctica.  What’s up with that?

Is it possible that Undersea Volcanoes can affect the climate through warming ocean temperatures or are they insignficant?

And that last question is the real truth because no one knows.  Yes, the long term trend of Arctic Ice extent is negative but there seems to be a trend over the past 3-4 years of growth that bucks the trend.  This rapid expansion of ice in March did not fit the storyline except that it was the third consecutive year that the March Ice Extent was well above the long term trend line.  And what’s up with the land masses being so cold and the air over the oceans not playing along?  Just a coincidence or is there something at play?  And what about the undersea volcanoes?  Do they play any role at all or are they just red herrings?  And why was the Southern Hemisphere so warm this summer except for the areas around the South Pole?  No one wants to address the fact that the Antarctic did not want to go along with the warming script when the global temperature is taken for the time frame.  I know that I will be given a label for raising any questions which always puts up a red flag to me when legitimate questions are not seriously since they don’t fit a perconceived notion. 

Unfortunately, Mankind Often Takes the Wrong View Regarding Humility

I think that the proper position to take here is not one way or another. It is wrong for people to say that there is no climate change.  Most evidence suggests that there is.  It is not clear if the change though is anthropogenic or natural so it is equally as wrong to pretend like we have all of the answers.  Throughout history, man seems to learn lessons.  After the devastating 30 years war in Europe, mankind seemed to at least temporarily find that diplomacy was a far better way to settle disputes than armed conflict.  Obviously, that lesson has been lost.  But one lesson that man does not seem to learn is humility; a recognition that he currently has limited ability to reach conclusions about anything concerning the wonders of his own planet.  Constantly, what is thought to be fact is tossed on the ash heep of history when something comes along to confound that supposed fact.  Yet, we continue to behave as if we have all of the answers and persecute those who suggest otherwise.

SPC Tuesday Categorical Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

Weather Bottom Line:  After pontificating about the need for humility, I follow up with a forecast. Nice timing.  But, duty calls.  The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center appears to be taking the more cautious position that I advocated yesterday regarding severe weather prospects in our area.  The slight risk area was expanded on Tuesday both north and south as well as farther east to the extent that it now encompasses the Louisville Metro Area.  This allows for the potential for storms that should develop to our west to hold together in the evening hours and move into our region.  We had temperatures in the mid to upper 80′s on Tuesday…but there is one fly in the ointment..that is the dewpoints.  

Tuesday SPC Severe Weather Probability for Wednesday

Tuesday afternoon we were only in the mid 40′s regarding dewpoints and we’ll have to do better than that to support some good storms around here.   Surface Dewpoints Tuesday afternoon were over 60 from Southwestern Illinois down through the Bootheel of Missouri and and down south from there.  I would speculate that we will probably see an increase in our moisture content such that it will be marginally sufficient to suppor t’storms and possibly strong storms.  Bottom Line is that Wednesday afternoon and evening will be something to keep an eye on around  here.  Not a slam dunk and perhaps not even likely, but there will be a possibility of some action..most likely if we did it would be gusty winds and small hail.  We get some CAPE in here late in the day and some sheer and Helicity…enough for conern but not enough to go bananas over either.

Global Warming VS US Snow Storms: No Conclusions Please February 11, 2010

Tough To Convince These Folks About Global Warming

I have heard radio talk show hosts and politicians make all sorts of jokes about Global Warming as much of the United States get slammed by snow storms.  They could be right but, then again, it might be a good idea for them to check out the facts before they speak.  See, our opinions are limited on what we know and for people in the eastern United States, what we know is that it has been colder and snowier than normal which runs counter to what most people consider global warming.  Philadelphia, Washington DC and Baltimore all have not only exceeded their average annual snowfall totals but also have broken annual records.  The midpoint of winter was just passed about 10 days ago and spring time often produces big snowstorms.  Louisville is probably fairly representative of much of the northeastern quadrant of the US if not parts of the South as well in regard to temperatures. 

Nearly 2/3 of US buried under Snow On Feb. 11 2010

According to the National Weather Service’s  National Snow Analysis, the snow cover of the United States as of February 11 was about 63.5% of the nation with an average depth of over 8 inches.  If you look at the Louisville archived climate data, you find that Louisville has been much cooler than average going back to July 2009 when for the first time in recorded history, Louisville did not have a 90 degree day.  Keep in mind, that 3 years ago Louisville moved the official recording site from the National Weather Service to the airport after over 30 years and the airport routinely has higher temperatures.  There were bureaucratic reasons for the change but it generally will skew temperatures warmer and unless a climatologist is aware of the switch, then they might conclude that Louisville is a great example of global warming.  Nevertheless, in spite of the switch, no 90 degree temperatures in July 2009.  every month since then has been colder than average except for September 2009 and November.  In most cases, the degree of colder monthly temperatures has been pretty dramatic, such as the July 2009 departure from normal coming at at negative 5 degrees.  January 2010 featured 13 days of consistent below freezing temperatures but a week long warm up resulted in January’s departure from normal only coming in at negative 2.9 degrees.  So far, February has been some 5-6 degrees below normal with no real warm ups in site for at least 10 days. 

Arctic Sea Ice Growth of Recent Years Slowing?

What is going on is that the long wave pattern has been generally stuck.  There has been a consistent ridge over the Atlantic extending all the way to Greenland.  The result has been the eastern part of the US has been in a generally persistent trough that allows the Arctic air to spill down at times to the Gulf of Mexico and there are not the normal fluxuations.  Now, this is an El Nino year so we expect some variations to the norm.  But, here’s the interesting thing:  According to the Univeristy of Alabama at Huntsville’s data,  January 2010 was the warmest month globally was the warmest January since they began making records using satellite sourcing.    How can this be?  Europe has also been in the grips of a deep freeze and heavy snow all winter.  Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH has never been accused of being a Global Warming chicken little.  He has worked tirelessly to analyze the climate from a non-political view and so he has been the target of much criticism from the left.  So, his January report should not be dismissed by anyone.  Spencer explains that the long wave pattern has been such that the cold pattern has been over land masses while the oceans have largely been dominated by a warmer pattern.  The North Atlantic ridge I described is an example.

More Ice On Pacific Side of Arctic, Less on Atlantic Side

 I have been critical of “pro global warming” news reports based on data from the National Sea and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in recent years that always say that the Arctic ice was the 2nd or 3rd lowest when, in fact, the sea ice at the North Pole has been growing.  Yes, it’s low but it has been coming off its recorded historic lows so the headlines could say that its growing but instead they take the negative angle.  I’ve been tagged derisively as a “denier” when, in fact, I am looking for truth not trying to join a team.  In that spirit, I should note that the ice growth trend seems to be slowing for the moment.  In January, the total ice cover was greater than the lows of 2006 but, it is less than 2009 which is a break in the trend of growth since 2006.   To be sure, one month does not a trend make and nothing can be construed one way or another from this single month.  But, it is interesting in that the Pacific side of the Arctic really has an ice extent beyond the long term average.  But, it’s the Atlantic side that has come in low.  That same ridge that has given Louisville and the rest of the east colder and snowier conditions has resulted in warmer conditions, thus reduced ice growth.

Trend Has Been Down but is it Mother Nature's doing or Man's Fault?

What does all of this mean? I dunno.  And, as I’ve pointed out before, the correct response should be I Don’t Know rather than taking a position one way or another.  Because no one does know.  The earth temperatures have been rising in recent years, but they’ve done so in the past.  Is man contributing to the warmth?  It’s so hard to say especially after revelations that some of the books have been cooked.  If man is the cause can we do anything about it?  And perhaps more importantly, should governments try to do something about it?  Would the amount of difference from any treaties really make enough of a difference to justify the costs and could that money be used better for a fight against disease or world poverty?  I have suggested that perhaps we are neglecting a bigger and real threat, which is the pollution of our oceans,  waterways and water sources.  But, the lesson here is to recognize that the world is a big place and just because you are having a tough winter doesn’t mean that the world is going into an ice age.  It’s the weather…and it changes.

Sunshine should Help reduce the snowpack some next couple of days

NAM 84 hr snow map points the way to Sunday night and Monday

Weather Bottom Line:  Global Warming or not, as you can tell from the data above, Louisville has been colder than the 30 year average every month but two since last summer and most of those anomolies have been fairly significant on the down side.  I don’t see much of a change.  In fact, I still don’t see how we get above freezing Friday and Saturday or even Sunday as some forecasts suggest.  We will be close and if we do get above 32, it wont be for long and unless you are a thermometer, it won’t matter.  I think we’d get more snow loss from sublimation than from actual melting.  And it still looks like we’re going to add to our snow totals.  The models continue to be consistent with bringing a shorwave down thorugh the flow on Saturday bringing snow for us Saturday night through Monday with most data suggesting the best accumulations coming on Monday. Some want to carry flurries and light snow into Tuesday.  The range in snow totals generally are from 3-6 inches.

GFS 120 hours Shows Possible Result of Next Snow Event in Time for President's Day

If you examine the NAM and GFS graphical snow depiction you can see a striking similarity.  The NAM only goes out 84 hours to Sunday evening but you can see what looks like a finger painted line of snow pointing straight to Louisville with about 3 inches or snow pointing to Kentuckiana.  The 84 GFS map looks almost exactly the same but we have the benefit of going out 120 hours on the GFS and you can see how it carries out the scenario.  As with recent storms, there is a tight snowfall gradient from south to north.  What is interesting is that the GFS takes a sharp turn higher in Southern Indiana just north of Louisville with totals up toward 8 inches whereas louisville is in the 4-5 inch range.  As I’ve said for several days, I do think that we will get some decent snow but it’s tough to get 8 inches from a storm coming from the northwest.  Typically, you need a moisture source like the Gulf of Mexico involved or a storm coming from the Southwest to get some really good snow totals.  But, then again, if the shortwave is cold enough aloft it will squeeze whatever moisture  it can find right out.  So, we’ll see.  And I still don’t see how we get above freezing anytime soon.

Sea-Ice Growing But Reports Continue Negative; Northeast Passage Opens Up September 15, 2009

US Summer 2009 Temp Ranks

While many people in the US may have wondered this summer what happened to Global Warming, other parts of the world showed some new affects of rising temperatures.  In the US, the map shows that Texas was the 8th warmest on record, Florida was at the fourth highest average temperature for any summer since 1895 and Washington had it 7th warmest summer.  But, other parts of the country were decidedly colder.  Michigan went through the 5 coldest summer on record and a number of other states in the Northern Plains came in with the 7th coolest summer.  The US was determined to have gone through the 34th coolest summer on record.

As for the Arctic Ice extent, which many use as a bellweather for Global Warming analysis, the ice extent is growing for the second consecutive year.  Back in 2007, the ice extent fell to its lowest levels, which prompted media outlets to trumpet some scientific speculation that perhaps the north pole would become devoid of ice for a time.  Of course, these media reports neglected to mention that the scientific probability was well less than 50% and instead made it sound like it was a hard-fast prediction. 

Aug Arctic Sea Ice Graphic

Anyway, the Sea-Ice at the North Pole did not decrease in 2008 but instead increased.  Instead of reporting that the ice grew, the headlines said it was the sccond lowest in recorded history, which only goes back to 1979.  So far, in 2009, the ice continues to run above the 2008 levels.  So, do the headlines say that the sea-ice has grown for the second consecutive year?  Of course not.  Instead the headline say that the “Arctic Ice Meltdown Greater Than Average Again in 2009.”   On the flip side, there is another story afoot that Global Warming may be the reason behind future cooling of the North American continent in the future!  Now, that would cause quite a problem politically.  If the rest of the world gets hotter but Americans feel cooler, then that would probably cause a very large chunk of the American population to oppose any political efforts to curb Global Warming.  See additional Sea Ice Data from Sea-Ice News.

Now, the ice growth seems to fly in the face of global warming advocates and I do not believe that the increasing of ice over two consecutive years made it into the presentation of Al Gore’s movie.  Nor do I think it was part of any solution posed by climate modeling data on which speculation has been based.  But,  it’s happened.  Then again, the fact that a Northeast Passage has opened up in the sea-ice for a couple of ships kinda fits the whole notion that North America might get colder when everyone else gets warmer.  While one year does not a trend make, it would seem we saw it this year.  This all fits into my contention that no one knows.  We as humans think we have all the answers when in fact, there are no absolutes.  So far, the overall predictions of Mr. Gore’s movie and even the IPCC report are not going as planned.  Arctic Sea Ice is growing over the past two years and much of the United States is cooler.  But, on the other hand, other parts of the world are warming and there is that little issue of the Northeast Passage. 

Don’t believe the hype either way and encourage your politicians to allow the scientific process to conclude in a normal, academic fashion, instead of the current trend of allowing political gamesmanship and opportunism to corrupt the proper methodology.

Baltimore Fire Leads To Rebirth; Sea Ice Growing February 7, 2009

Baltimore Fire-Destruction Led to Rebirth

Bendann Art Gallery Didn't Fare Well, But is Back Today

On This Date in History: I told you yesterday how I spent lots of time in Baltimore for the past week and stayed at the Admiral Fell Inn.  Now, the Admiral Fell Inn is really made up of parts of some 8 buildings, some dating back to the 18th century.  But, the buildings had been redone in the early 20th century.  Snow White pointed out to me that there had been a big fire, but I’m not sure how much the property was affected.  Well, low and behold, on this date in 1904, the Great Baltimore Fire broke out.  It was the first big  fire since the Great Chicago Fire in 1872.  No cow in this story though but there was wind.  This one is thought to have started by a cigarette or cigar in the basement of the Hurst Building, which was a wholesale dry good place on the south side of German Street at Liberty.  The fire burned down some 1400 structures over an 80 block area. 

38 Cities Responded to Help

A couple of interesting facts show up in this fire.  The fire burned for about 31 hours and fire companies from as far away as New York, Philadelphia and Altoona, PA showed up.  The companies uncovered a problem that had been urged to be addressed for some time.  There is a saying that the people of Venice did nothing about the waste water problem until sewage came into the homes.  Same is true in so many instances today and it was true in 1904 when, for years, experts had urged a uniform fire hose couplings.  At the time, there were about 600 different sizes in use in the United States.  So, when the Washington DC Fire Department showed up to help,

These Are Politician Buildings...Just the Facade

none of their hoses fit.  Same was true of other companies from 21 other cities that came to lend aid.  But, it wasn’t all bad.  The opportunity was presented for Baltimore to upgrade the docks, the electric and gas lines and also new pumping station and vastly improved sewer system.  That only served to bolster Baltimore’s position as a shipping and rail center when the automobile age came about a decade later.  Baltimore boomed partly because of the fire.  Many of the structures destroyed were only insured for their construction value. So, instead of 1400 buildings with an insured value of $13 million, 800 buildings replaced them with  a value of $25 million.  All told, the fire cost some $150 million…which was a ton of money at the turn of the century….and guess what…Baltimore didn’t ask for a bailout.

Arctic Sea-Ice Graph Through Jan 2009

Arctic Ice Update:  I won’t say too much about the sea ice report from the the NSIDC except to harp on something I’ve said for sometime and that is how it is reported.  The story begins by saying that the sea ice for January 2009 was below the 30 year average and was the 6th lowest on record…which I think only goes back 31 years.  Then you read down and find that the amount of ice was actually an increase from last year, which was the 3rd lowest ever recorded.  So, they could have just as easily said that the sea ice was growing which probably would have made a bigger splash as it goes against conventional wisdom of the arctic ice disappearing.  It is interesting when you find that east of Greenland, the ice actually decreased in the last two weeks of the month but elsewhere it increased.  That makes sense if you consider that is about the time that the northeastern quadrant of North America got terribly cold during that time.  When you get a big dip in the polar jet stream, it gets cold in one place but tends to be warm in the front and back of the trof with ridges building in.  In fact, in spite of the fact that we have been very cold for much of the winter, particularly the last 30 days, early data indicates that global temperatures actually were significantly warmer in January.

Weather Bottom Line: Same thing as yesterday’s report.  We get to the low to mid 60s with clouds on Saturday.  Low 50s with a few showers on Sunday with a weak front then a resurgence of warm air as a storm moves up through the midwest in the early part of the week and drags a warm front through.  We push to near 70 on Wednesday but there are still indications that the next storm coming out of the southwest is closer to us than the first and that could bring the prospects of at least t’storms on Wednesday if not severe thunderstorms.  Remember, last year in early February we had a pretty good tornado outbreak around here…but I wasn’t here. I was enjoying mid 70s to near 80 in New Orleans for Mardi Gras.