Arctic Sea Ice Shows Extensive Growth in March 2010 April 6, 2010

NSIDC March 2010 Sea Ice Extent Near 1979-2000 Average-Challenge to Conventional Wisdom?

Arctic Ice Continued Growth in March 2010

Global temperatures this winter on average were up for 2009-2010 but the March Arctic Ice Growth was perhaps unprecedented and much of Northern Asia, Northern Europe and parts of the United States had exceedingly harsh winters while Canada and Greenland were exceedingly warm.    In February, the North Pole Arctic Ice extent appeared to have continued a trend of slow growth from the 2006 lowest recorded maximum ice extent.  Back in 2004, there were several reports concerning undersea volcanic activity that could account for warming Arctic ocean temperatures, but these reports were not widely brought to the public view by the media.   Nevertheless, since the low maximum in March 2006 which followed the lowest Arctic Ice Extent minimum ever recorded in 2005.  Then in 2007, a new record low minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent was observed.   This led to trumpeting in the media that 2008 could result in an ice free Arctic.   If I recall, when I reviewed these media reports, I found that the headline did not match the rhetoric.  A few scientists had said that there was a 1 in 4 chance of that happening, which is hardly a prediction that it would occur.   Not only did that headline prove to be false, but the 2008 Arctic Sea Ice minimum was greater than the previous year.  I noted that, instead of saying that it had grown, the headline from the National Snow and Ice Data Center was that it was the “second lowest” of all time.  The headline was true but they chose the negative presentation over the positive depiction which may speak volumes.  In my mind, headlines should be absent of adjectives that may create bias perceptions one way or the other.

March 2010 3rd Consecutive March To Buck the Long Term Trend Line

Since those days of gloom and doom, the reports have consistently come forth with the reference point always being the lowest.  I”m not sure if I have ever seen a sentence that simply says the ice is growing.  In March 2010, the NSIDC reported that the Arctic Ice Extent in February “continued to track below average” and near those dismal levels of 2007.  But, the numbers were slightly higher and at the end of the month, there was a slight rise that was not noted in the text.  Later, we find that the February Arctic Ice Extent was the “fourth lowest February extent” which means it was higher than 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was lower than 2008 and 2009.   As it turns out, something happened.  As the month of March rolled on,  that little rise at the end of February that was seemingly dismissed continued on through March such that the March ice extent almost reached the 1979-2000 average that is used as a  baseline.  I do not recall the ice extent of any month coming close to that level in recent memory.  I suppose qualitative adjectives only apply for negative news because the April 6, 2010 NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent report used a more balanced headline than it had in previous reports of low ice.    Instead it simply says, “Cold snap causes late-season spurt growth.”  The text of the report does not point out but, this is the 3rd consecutive March to be well above the long term trend line.  This should bring good news of cheer, I would think.  Just 2 years ago, the media was writing about Santa Claus floating away and now we see a huge growth in the ice extent and the latest date of the maximum extent since monitoring began. 

Global Temperature Anomalies Dec-Feb 2010

Nevertheless, I find very little of a positive nature in the report and I think that is the correct approach.  It is good to be cautious in a humble silent admission that we do not have a full understanding of how the earth’s climate operates.  Just report the facts.  But, in the past, there has been a decided negative tilt.  Even in this report, there is talk of how the long term trend is still down and that the overall temperatures were still above average for the Arctic were above average, but it does note that the temperatures in Northern Europe and Siberia were below average.  It probably would have been more accurate to say they were “well below average,” yet again, they seem to pick and choose when to use qualifying adjectives.  If you look at the seasonal temperature map to the right, you notice that all of Siberia was at least 5 degrees C below average and that the rest of Northern Europe was between 3-5 degrees C below average.  That represents an enormous land mass.  Now, Canada was some 3-4 degrees warmer but much of the United States was 2-4 degrees colder.  Air temperatures over the ocean were generally warmer than average but not to the extent of the land anomalies.  For some reason, we had a long wave pattern that gave persistent cold to large land areas in the Northern hemisphere with a somewhat smaller land area covered by warmer temperatures.  Overall, the global temperatures were warmer. If you look at the map, you notice that almost the entire Southern Hemisphere was warmer during the peiriod, which is largely ocean areas.  The exception is the oceans surrounding Antarctica.  What’s up with that?

Is it possible that Undersea Volcanoes can affect the climate through warming ocean temperatures or are they insignficant?

And that last question is the real truth because no one knows.  Yes, the long term trend of Arctic Ice extent is negative but there seems to be a trend over the past 3-4 years of growth that bucks the trend.  This rapid expansion of ice in March did not fit the storyline except that it was the third consecutive year that the March Ice Extent was well above the long term trend line.  And what’s up with the land masses being so cold and the air over the oceans not playing along?  Just a coincidence or is there something at play?  And what about the undersea volcanoes?  Do they play any role at all or are they just red herrings?  And why was the Southern Hemisphere so warm this summer except for the areas around the South Pole?  No one wants to address the fact that the Antarctic did not want to go along with the warming script when the global temperature is taken for the time frame.  I know that I will be given a label for raising any questions which always puts up a red flag to me when legitimate questions are not seriously since they don’t fit a perconceived notion. 

Unfortunately, Mankind Often Takes the Wrong View Regarding Humility

I think that the proper position to take here is not one way or another. It is wrong for people to say that there is no climate change.  Most evidence suggests that there is.  It is not clear if the change though is anthropogenic or natural so it is equally as wrong to pretend like we have all of the answers.  Throughout history, man seems to learn lessons.  After the devastating 30 years war in Europe, mankind seemed to at least temporarily find that diplomacy was a far better way to settle disputes than armed conflict.  Obviously, that lesson has been lost.  But one lesson that man does not seem to learn is humility; a recognition that he currently has limited ability to reach conclusions about anything concerning the wonders of his own planet.  Constantly, what is thought to be fact is tossed on the ash heep of history when something comes along to confound that supposed fact.  Yet, we continue to behave as if we have all of the answers and persecute those who suggest otherwise.

SPC Tuesday Categorical Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

Weather Bottom Line:  After pontificating about the need for humility, I follow up with a forecast. Nice timing.  But, duty calls.  The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center appears to be taking the more cautious position that I advocated yesterday regarding severe weather prospects in our area.  The slight risk area was expanded on Tuesday both north and south as well as farther east to the extent that it now encompasses the Louisville Metro Area.  This allows for the potential for storms that should develop to our west to hold together in the evening hours and move into our region.  We had temperatures in the mid to upper 80′s on Tuesday…but there is one fly in the ointment..that is the dewpoints.  

Tuesday SPC Severe Weather Probability for Wednesday

Tuesday afternoon we were only in the mid 40′s regarding dewpoints and we’ll have to do better than that to support some good storms around here.   Surface Dewpoints Tuesday afternoon were over 60 from Southwestern Illinois down through the Bootheel of Missouri and and down south from there.  I would speculate that we will probably see an increase in our moisture content such that it will be marginally sufficient to suppor t’storms and possibly strong storms.  Bottom Line is that Wednesday afternoon and evening will be something to keep an eye on around  here.  Not a slam dunk and perhaps not even likely, but there will be a possibility of some action..most likely if we did it would be gusty winds and small hail.  We get some CAPE in here late in the day and some sheer and Helicity…enough for conern but not enough to go bananas over either.

Sea-Ice Growing But Reports Continue Negative; Northeast Passage Opens Up September 15, 2009

US Summer 2009 Temp Ranks

While many people in the US may have wondered this summer what happened to Global Warming, other parts of the world showed some new affects of rising temperatures.  In the US, the map shows that Texas was the 8th warmest on record, Florida was at the fourth highest average temperature for any summer since 1895 and Washington had it 7th warmest summer.  But, other parts of the country were decidedly colder.  Michigan went through the 5 coldest summer on record and a number of other states in the Northern Plains came in with the 7th coolest summer.  The US was determined to have gone through the 34th coolest summer on record.

As for the Arctic Ice extent, which many use as a bellweather for Global Warming analysis, the ice extent is growing for the second consecutive year.  Back in 2007, the ice extent fell to its lowest levels, which prompted media outlets to trumpet some scientific speculation that perhaps the north pole would become devoid of ice for a time.  Of course, these media reports neglected to mention that the scientific probability was well less than 50% and instead made it sound like it was a hard-fast prediction. 

Aug Arctic Sea Ice Graphic

Anyway, the Sea-Ice at the North Pole did not decrease in 2008 but instead increased.  Instead of reporting that the ice grew, the headlines said it was the sccond lowest in recorded history, which only goes back to 1979.  So far, in 2009, the ice continues to run above the 2008 levels.  So, do the headlines say that the sea-ice has grown for the second consecutive year?  Of course not.  Instead the headline say that the “Arctic Ice Meltdown Greater Than Average Again in 2009.”   On the flip side, there is another story afoot that Global Warming may be the reason behind future cooling of the North American continent in the future!  Now, that would cause quite a problem politically.  If the rest of the world gets hotter but Americans feel cooler, then that would probably cause a very large chunk of the American population to oppose any political efforts to curb Global Warming.  See additional Sea Ice Data from Sea-Ice News.

Now, the ice growth seems to fly in the face of global warming advocates and I do not believe that the increasing of ice over two consecutive years made it into the presentation of Al Gore’s movie.  Nor do I think it was part of any solution posed by climate modeling data on which speculation has been based.  But,  it’s happened.  Then again, the fact that a Northeast Passage has opened up in the sea-ice for a couple of ships kinda fits the whole notion that North America might get colder when everyone else gets warmer.  While one year does not a trend make, it would seem we saw it this year.  This all fits into my contention that no one knows.  We as humans think we have all the answers when in fact, there are no absolutes.  So far, the overall predictions of Mr. Gore’s movie and even the IPCC report are not going as planned.  Arctic Sea Ice is growing over the past two years and much of the United States is cooler.  But, on the other hand, other parts of the world are warming and there is that little issue of the Northeast Passage. 

Don’t believe the hype either way and encourage your politicians to allow the scientific process to conclude in a normal, academic fashion, instead of the current trend of allowing political gamesmanship and opportunism to corrupt the proper methodology.

Supreme Court Justice Arrested, Still Looking for Fay and Northwest Passage Opens August 14, 2008

For the latest on Tropical Storm Fay, click here

If you are looking for the tropical stuff, look at the bottom. If you are looking for rain, look somewhere else than Louisville. Except for an errant shower on Thursday(be thankful if you get a shower), we will stay dry through the weekend with temperatures around seasonal averages and humidity levels slowly increasing but it’s still going to be pretty comfortable by Mid-August standards.

Arctic Ice Map

Arctic Sea Ice Still Melting: If you recall on these here pages we talked about the nitwit reporting about the possibility of the Arctic Ice melting and Santa Claus having to put on his swimming trunks.(Symon Sez-Just The Facts!) I ripped the AP reporter for grabbing a few statistics and putting them in the top of his story while burying the qualifiers and other opinions. At the time, I believe there was more sea ice up north than at that time last year. Well, the ice began melting pretty quickly in July, partly due to storms blowing in and breaking up the newest and thinnest ice. Like last year, the Northwest Passage is now open. But it’s pretty shallow so its not something that big ships can take. They take the more northern Parry Channel which remains clogged with ice. Last year, the Parry Channel opened up in mid-August and it’s possible that it may open again this year before the melting ends. Either way, it appears that Santa is safe. Why do I think that the AP will not run a story with a headline trumpeting the fact that the North Pole did not melt away. Here’s the complete story from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

National Snow and Ice Data Center Aug 11 report

On This Date In History: On this date in 1889, US Supreme Court Justice Stephen J. Field was arrested for murder making him the only member of that body ever arrested for such a crime. The story goes back to a divorce case in which Justice Field ruled that the marriage between Sarah Althea Hill and a wealthy mine owner was invalid and she therefore was not entitled to any portion of his wealth. And neither was her then current husband, David Terry, who like Field was a former California Supreme Court justice. The courtroom erupted into a brawl and Field ordered the couple jailed for contempt. The pair publically announced revenge on the Justice.

About a year later, Field and his bodyguard, US Marshal David Neagle, were riding on a train to San Francisco. Also on the train was Sarah and David Terry. At a stop in Stockton, California the Terrys spotted field in the station dining room. David went for Field while Sarah went back to the train. Dave slapped the Justice and Neagle pulled his revolver and told Dave to stop while identifying himself as an officer. David Terry started fumbling with his jacket. Neagle fatally shot David Terry as his wife came running up with a satchel holding a loaded gun. Neagle and Field were arrested on a murder charge.

California’s Governor ordered Field released and the case against Neagle ended up…in the US Supreme Court that ruled in a landmark decision that since Neagle was acting under federal authority, he could not be subject to California law. I suppose that is why no one ever asked the Texas justice system to charge the ATF agents with anything in the Waco/ Branch Davidian case several years ago. I suppose that Field probably recused himself from the case but it may be the only case in which a sitting Supreme Court Justice was actively involved in a situation that set a legal precedent.

12Z 08/13 NRL Track Invest 92L

So, What’s Up with the Tropics? Well, we’re still waiting on Fay to show itself. The NHC was so unimpressed with disturbance 92L that it cancelled the hurricane hunter for Wednesday. I suppose they are saving the taxpayers money on fuel costs. But, the satellite imagery looks fairly interesting and the intensity spaghetti model still has half of the 16 computers taking it at least to tropical storm level

Spaghetti Intensity 08/13

with a few going to the hurricane level as it moves into the Bahamas. The spaghetti tracks are all very similar but the other half of the intensity models are split with part taking it to tropical storm and back to depression status or keeping it as a depression or less. The other part take it to storm to depression and then back toward tropical storm status. The 18Z ETA was pretty bullish and makes it a hurricane in the Bahamas in 84

Spaghetti Track 08/13

hours. The GFS puts it in the same region as an open area of low pressure. I’ve attached all of the accompanying maps. BTW..the last two runs of the GFS wants to put a tropical cyclone of some intensity in the Gulf in two weeks….but we’re talking about two weeks and the rate of accuracy of models begins to deteriorate after two days, let alone two weeks. But, it will be fun to watch and see if that’s the case.

18Z NAM 08/13

18Z GFS 08/13 84 hours

An Honest Report On Arctic Ice Melt-Just the Facts June 30, 2008

DOESN’T ANYONE JUST REPORT THE FACTS ANYMORE?

I posted the other day all about the Volcano Under the North Pole. The story had been out for some time but word started getting spread on June 27. On that same day came the headline “This Summer We May See the First Ice-Free North Pole” from the Associated Press. The story is based on a report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. That report came out on June 3, yet the Associated Press waited to report on it until June 27. Makes you say…hmmmmm. The first sentence in the article quotes a leading scientist with his guess that there is a 50-50 chance that the North Pole becomes ice-free this summer. Later, you find that it says slightly less than 50-50 chance. Let’s don’t let a little adverb get in the way of a catchy first sentence. Later, you find a leading scientist who puts the odds at 1 in 4. Why wasn’t he the first guy mentioned? Why was he buried in the story? Why wasn’t that the headline? BTW…the 50-50 stuff isn’t found in the NSIDC report either…only the AP story.

You also won’t find this quote from the real report in the story : “This year, much of the first-year ice is farther north than normal, and those northern areas receive weaker solar radiation. So, northern first-year ice may be less vulnerable to melt than first-year ice in typical locations” Nor will you find in the story that the report says that in May 2008 there was actually more polar ice than May 2007. The report does say that there appears to be a more rapid ice melt going on. What you do find in the AP story though is the paraphrase from a scientist that there is nothing scientifically significant about the North Pole…that the  biggest problem appears to be concern about Santa’s home. Huh? If that’s the case, then why is this a story? That sentence deserves more examination and questions, but the writer chose not to, I guess. Maybe he was afraid of the answers. Or maybe he wants to scare the kids.

The story about the Arctic Undersea Volcano was first reported by the National Science Foundation in 2004. I cited several other sources that have come out since then. Yet…you won’t find any mention of the volcano in the AP Story. Guess the reporter didn’t know about it…or maybe he didn’t do his homework. ..or maybe he did know about it and decided to leave it out of the story.  It just clutters things up, right?  But, to be fair, that the report doesn’t talk about the volcanic activity is perhaps justification.  But, a question as to why the report doesn’t mention the vulcanology going on seems vital…that is if you want the whole story.   If you read the report that is the supposed underlying source of the story, you will find other things that are just a wee bit different than what the AP writer wrote and other things left out all together.

The trouble with journalism today is that there are not any Joe Fridays out there…people who want just the facts. They jazz things up, leave out adverbs, neglect to report the entire story and put eye-catching headlines.

It’s not the NSIDC report that I have a problem with. I mean, it is what it is…the ice is melting. I would be curious though about their opinion regarding the undersea volcano and how much of a factor that may be. But, it’s the writer’s story that is problematic. In my view, either this person is not very bright or qualified to be reporting this story or he is just plain pushing an agenda instead of reporting the facts, all the facts and nothing but the facts. In this case he thinks that 50-50 is the same as slightly less than 50-50. Which is it? He’ ll probably never tell.

Here is the real report and see if you don’t see a difference between it and the AP story.

National Snow and Ice Center News and Analysis

“This summer may see first ice-free North Pole”