Chimp Challenges Experts For 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast May 28, 2010

Hurricane Andrew Sequence Aug 23, 24, 25, 1992

"Dr. James Hansimian"

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: Let us begin with the 2010 hurricane season prognastication of Dr. James Hansimian(video).   He is predicting 6 to 8 hurricanes for the 2010 season.  Never heard of him?  You probably will.  You see, he is a chimpanzee whom the National Center for Public Policy Research has put on the record in an effort to emphasize how little humans really know about the climate.  They claim that NOAA has been “wrong three out of the last 4 years and 7 of the last 11.”  They say they are not hiring “Dr. Hansimian” to ridicule  the effort and dedication of climate and hurricane specialists but instead to highlight that, even with the greatest minds, competence, tools and methodology, humans do not have a complete understanding of the climate.  They say that they will make another video in December 2010 of Dr. Hansimian and determine who was more correct.  In the meantime, let us look what some of the leading authorities have to say. 

Hurricane Headlines Used to Contain Facts, Not Sensational Hyperbole

Now, I already had a pretty good idea of what the National Hurricane Center would say.  What is amazing to me though is the media coverage.  I looked at the headline from USA Today and it says, Fierce Hurricane Season Predicted.   CNN had a story about the exact same subject but its link was a more subdued, “Hurricane Season Could be Above Average.”   Nevertheless, the actual headline to the story was a more menacing, “Hurricane Season Could be ‘Active’ or “Extremely Active.’”  AFP via Yahoo News was even more dramatic by trumpeting, “2010 Hurricane Season May Be Worst on Record.”   But, Reuters via Yahoo News had a little different spin as its headline read, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005.”   Fox News says, “Hurricane Season Could be Strongest Ever Say Top Meteorologists.”  I have yet to find any quote from anyone at NOAA or the NHC that verifies any  of these headlines except fo the one from CNN, which not-coincidentally is the least sensational.   Interestingly, CBS4 in South Florida took a different tact.  Instead of focusing on the threat to the United States, instead its headline was, “NHC Director Fears For Haiti This Hurricane Season.”  That one is right on the money.  A tropical cyclone for Haiti of any magnitude would not be good and they get nailed in one form or another very frequently.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Names 2005 to 2010 (In 2005 they ran out of names so went to Alpha, Beta...etc.)

So, what did was the National Hurricane Center 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast on May 27?   To begin with, the press release from the NHC had a headline that read, “NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic  Hurricane Season.”  Note that this headline lacks the hyperbole and extreme adjectives of the media.  As usual, they give themselves a wide berth by saying that there will be between 14 and 23 named storms.  That would be tropical cyclones of tropical storm force or more.  The difference between 14 and 23 is pretty large.  Eight to 14 of those storms are expected to be hurricanes with 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes which means category 3 or greater.  For the past several years, NOAA taking some of the thunder from the NHC.  I believe they are in the process of changing the name of the NHC to the NOAA National Hurricane Center; I suppose it’s an effort to establish that its a governmental agency.  In any event, the initial quote from their press release is not from an NHC forecaster or the Director.  Instead, its from the Under-Secretary of Commerce, who said, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record.”   Notice she said “If” and “could” and related it to “one of the more active” seasons.  The reason they give is warm ocean waters, no El Nino and a decadal cycle.  The last one is the most significant.  Accepted science generally has concluded that the Atlantic season goes in cycles of about 30 years in which there is great activity and, conversely, 30 years with low activity.  Since 1995, we have been in an “active era.” 

2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Now, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the most active in recorded history.  Keep in mind that it fell in part of the current “active era” and that recorded history is limited.  The first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in 1969 so prior to that, only ship reports were able to confirm hurricanes and ships kinda like to avoid storms so its possible there were several over the years that were missed.  Anyway, in 2005 there were 28 named storms with 15 hurricanes including the two notable powerful storms, Rita and Katrina.  That means, in order for the headlines of some of these media outlets to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season would have to have 5 more named storms than the top end of the forecast and one more hurricane than the extreme forecasted.  The headlines also neglect to take into account a very important and possible caveat from the press release that could put a damper on the number of storms:

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

Dr. William Gray: Making Hurricane Season Forecasts for At least 27 Years

Now, for 27 years one of the leading hurricane forecasting expert has been Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University.  Until recent years, he was about the only one who tried to make a forecast.  The NHC lately has been getting into the game and diminishing the role of Dr. Gray.  Dr. Gray is now has handed over some of the duties to Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the pair lead the efforts at Colorado State.  Back in early April, the Colorado State University  team issued their 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and noted warm ocean temperatures and a weakening El Nino as the reason for a more active season.  However, their numbers are more pedestrian.  They suggest 15 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes.  They go a step further and say that there is a 69% probability of major hurricane striking the US which is higher than the 52% of the 20th century.   Another tropical cyclone forecasting service, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast is somewhere in between the NHC  and  CSU with 16.3 (+/- 4.1) named storms, 8.5 (+/- 2.8) hurricanes and 4 (+/- 1.7) major hurricanes.

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005

On average, the number of named storms in any given year in the North Atlantic is 10 (9.6) with 6 (5.9) hurricanes and 2.3 of those becoming major hurricanes.  So, both forecast teams are predicting an above average season.  It would seem that the folks at CSU might be a looking on the low end with an eye on the El Nino not diminishing completely to neutral until after the hurricane season has started.  The NHC seems to be banking on the El Nino coming to an end sooner, or at least allowing for that possibility, thus they have the substantially larger number of storms on the high end of their range.  But, again….Dr. Gerry Bell’s words make it sound as if they think that a La Nina condition developing is a real possibility.  The two forecasts are almost identical except that the NHC gives itself a wide berth so, if by chance there are a bunch of storms, then they can say they said so.  They also can avoid making any huge revisions as the season progresses as has been done with some initial hurricane season forecasts in the past.  The truth is, it’s just a forecast.  We’re in the middle of an active 30 year cycle and so its expected to be more active.  How much more active is an academic exercise.  In the first place, it’s impossible to predict so far out any specific disturbance developing in exactly the right conditions.  Remember, you need more than just warm water to have a tropical cyclone.   Also, just because a tropical cyclone develops, it doesn’t mean that it will hit land.  A tropical cyclone’s job in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical region to the polar region.  They don’t really care if there is land in the way or ocean. 

Just Because It's a Headline, Doesn't Mean that It's True

And one more thing….note that nothing was said about Global Warming in either the Colorado State University forecast or the National Hurricane Center outlook.  They do refer to a warm surface temperature anomoly, but that is about as close as you get.  And, if it were due to Global Warming or Climate Change, then it would stand to reason that there would be more tropical cyclones all around the world.  As it happens, the NHC forecasts a Below Average Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Beyond that, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has a 2010 NW Pacific Typhoon Season Forecast that is near average.  TSR also has a forecast for the Australian region for tropical activity to be about 10% below average.  Going by the forecasts…well above average for the North Atlantic, below average for the Eastern Pacific and Australian region and about average for the NW Pacific.  Doesn’t sound like a global climate calamity, does it?  So, if the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season does have a signficant number of hurricanes, get ready for the media reports that try to tie it to Global Warming.  But, don’t believe it.  And, if the number that actually does come about is less than forecast (as was the case in 2009) then look for an explainer, which the NHC has already conveniently put out there.  See, they’re pretty smart.  If the season is slightly above average, they can say, “we said so.”  If its way above average, they can say, “we said so.”  And if the number of storms is less than the predicted range, they can say, ” we warned you about a possible La Nina.”  All the bases are covered.  That’s what a lot of guys on TV do as they can always claim victory, no matter what, when they say “Variable cloudy skies and a 50% chance of rain.” 

NAM Friday Evening Precipitation Forecast

Penn's Store in Gravel Switch, KY Since 1845

Weather Bottom Line:  I had to go to Gravel Switch Kentucky to help the folks at Kentucky’s oldest store, Penn’s Store.  Actually, it’s not just Kentucky’s oldest store, it is considered the oldest country store in America.  I am told that it began operation in 1845, though I’ve seen published reports that claim 1850.  But, I think I’ll go with the word of the Penn family.   About a month ago, when Tennessee was getting relatively sparse coverage of flooding, Kentucky got even less coverage.  Of course, South Central  Kentucky only got 11 inches of rain and parts of Tennessee got 15-20 inches so I suppose that it fits that if Tennessee got slim coverage, then Kentucky got none.  Anyway, I was helping them clean up and rid the store of a snake and so I could not post on Thursday when the NHC  Hurricane Forecast came out.  So, I’m a day late.

GFS Monday Evening Precip Outlook

I did see a few towering cumulous clouds late in the day…about the time I was playing St. Patrick and ridding the Penn’s Store of a 4 or 5 foot snake.  On our return to Louisville, there were some pretty decent wind gusts and it was much cooler, leading me to believe that there were some decent thunderstorms around, which did not surprise me.  The weak boundary will still be in the area on Friday so we will see some scattered storms again with highs in the mid 80′s.  We warm a bit over the weekend with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80′s.  We may have an isolated t’storm on Sunday but more likely there will be scattered afternoon storms on Memorial Day.

Was Quiet 2009 Hurricane Season Forecast by US Government? Is Blackbeard really dead? December 1, 2009

NOAA Graphic Depiction of 2009 Hurricane Season

Hurricane Ida Devastated Parts of Central America Though American Media Generally Gave Scant Coverage

The 2009 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is over. When you read the NOAA summary for the 2009 Hurricane Season, you see that it was the quietest season since 1997 and they immediately blame El Nino which typically suppresses hurricane activity in the North Atlantic. That’s fine. What is interesting is that they cite their forecast from August…or the one that comes out in midseason and says that the 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes falls within their range. They claim victory. Remember, this is your federal government at work and so sometimes what is true is not always entirely accurate. See, it was known back in the spring that El Nino was developing.  Nevertheless, I reported  last May Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach at Colorado State had predicted 14 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes.   Now, this did represent a decline in the number of storms seen in recent years which Gray has long maintained is part of a natural cyclical elevation of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and has nothing to do with global warming.  So, an El Nino would suppress activity but the natural cycle would still make it more active than one might expect in a time of El Nino.  But, Al Gore has been running around claiming that Global Warming would cause more hurricanes and more frequent instances of powerful hurricanes.  Gray has long been an opponent of such talk and in that same post, I noted a researcher who claimed that Global Warming might actually decrease the number of hurricanes in the North Atlantic, which means that even if Gore were right, he’d be wrong.

Hurricane Bill Brought Excitement to Canada's Peggy's Cove in August

Tropical Storm Ida Caused A Few Problems for Destin, FL in early November

So, NOAA is trumpeting its victory from August of 2009.  But, how did it do when you go back to the beginning of the season.  The May 21 2009 NOAA forecast for the 2009 hurricane season is interesting.  It gave a lot of wiggle room.  It said there was a 50% chance that it would be a normal season…that being I believe 10 named storms and 6 hurricanes, though those numbers may be a shade higher due to activity in recent years.  Anyway, what is 50%? Maybe it will maybe it won’t.  Then there was a 25% chance it would be higher than normal and 25% chance it would be lower.  Not exactly out on a big limb there, eh?  They gave it a 70% chance of there being 14 named storms with 4-7 hurricanes.  Sounds pretty similar to Dr. Gray.  Here is my beef and it’s not with the meteorologists.  It’s with the people who write these reports. 

They need to be honest and give the initial forecast. It wasn’t that far off and it would be helpful to provide some explanation as to why they changed it.  All they have to say is that the developing El Nino became stronger, faster than anticipated.  Done. Instead, they try to create a facade and only tell half the story.  It’s not a big deal but perhaps may be an indication of a transparentless government incapable of telling the whole truth.  If they don’t tell the whole story on little things like this, can we really trust them with the big things?  I mean, I look at Sports Illustrated and its football forecast.  Their pre-season predictions are not real good.  They had the Bears in the Super Bowl.  But, if they waited until the halfway point of the season, their forecast would be more accurate.  NOAA quoting their August forecast as reason for victory would be like Sports Illustrated using their mid-season forecast as the measuring bar to determine the accuracy of their football forecasters.  One thing is for certain: SI at midseason would not have the Bears in the Super Bowl. 

Who Is He and When Did He Die?

On This Date in History: Now here is a difficult spot for me because my source claims that Blackbeard the Pirate met his demise on this date in 1718. Other accounts say it was a week or so before on November 22. Given that no one really knows much about Blackbeard prior to his pirating days and accounts of events are often clouded by myth and hyperbole, its hard to know exactly what is the truth. In any event, I’ll stick with my crack research staff and say that the man who may or may not have been Edward Teach, known as Blackbeard, died on this date in 1718 in the lagoons of North Carolina.

What A Beard!!!

It is known that Teach went to sea at a very young age, though no one knows for certain where he was from. After serving the British in the Spanish War of Succession as a privateer, he became a pirate, which wasn’t too unusual for privateers after the British backed out of the conflict in 1713. He hooked up with a guy named Benjamin Hornigold who, after a few years of hijacking on the high seas, decided to retire. Queen Anne offered a pardon, but Teach declined and took over Hornigold’s ships, which included a converted 300 ton French slave ship that sported 40 guns. Blackbeard renamed it Queen Anne’s Revenge.

There are many tales about Blackbeard. He got his name from the long, thick beard he grew that was such that he could braid it numerous times. I saw a guy in Tallahassee with a braided beard. He looked ridiculous. He told me that if you drove a car, then you could not be considered an environmentalist. Theorhetically, I suppose he was right but pragmatically, that doesn’t work. He rode a bike…Blackbeard rode the high seas and was notorious for stories of being tough to work with. He supposedly shot his own first mate because he said if he didn’t shoot some of his crew now and then, they would not know their proper position. He was known as a big drinker and he and his crew got into wild contests. He supposedly had a contest in which he put some sort of smoke bomb in the hold of the ship along with he and his men to see who could last the longest. Of course, he was the last to emerge. I forget the quote upon his late arrival from the hold.

Anyway, in May 1718, he had several ships full of loot and some of his ships ran aground. Some

BlackBeard Keeping Watch

say that he led them there on purpose so that he didn’t have to split the treasure with so many men. He transferred the booty from the ship and left the crews of the ships marooned on an island. He then decided to accept a pardon under the Act of Grace. But, the governor of Virginia wasn’t convinced that Teach had really given up his life of crime and wanted him eliminated. So, he sent a group of men in shallow sloops from the James River to give chase. Using shallow draft vessels was a strategic decision since Blackbeard often handcuffed anyone in pursuit by expertly navigating the shallow coastal waters.

A Lt Maynard was in charge of the expedition of two ships which were temporarily given the cover of HMS status…Her Majesty’s Ship…so that they were free to do as they please without being charged as pirates themselves. Maynard and Blackbeard exchanged blows from time to time before the two ended up with just one ship each that were both badly damaged. Maynard ordered his men into the hold and wait for Blackbeard to board. Teach thought that the boat was abandoned and was quite surprised when the crew emerged. A fight ensued and, supposedly, one of Maynard’s crew fighting with Blackbeard managed to cut the pirate on the neck. Blackbeard supposedly complemented his opponent. His opponent accepted and then proceeeded to chop off the head of Blackbeard. Legend is that the headless body swam three times around the ship before it was captured.

You don’t like that account? How about this one from the Boston News-Letter:

“

Maynard and Teach themselves begun the fight with their swords, Maynard making a thrust, the point of his sword against Teach’s cartridge box, and bent it to the hilt. Teach broke the guard of it, and wounded Maynard’s fingers but did not disable him, whereupon he jumped back and threw away his sword and fired his pistol which wounded Teach. Demelt struck in between them with his sword and cut Teach’s face; in the interim both companies engaged in Maynard’s sloop. Later during the battle, while Teach was loading his pistol he finally died from blood loss. Maynard then cut off his head and hung it from his bow.

”

So…there you have it…not sure when he was born…not sure where he was born. Think I know he died on this date but others say November 2nd. Not entirely sure if he was really Edward Teach and we’re not sure exactly how he died, but we do know that he eventually had his head separated from the rest of his body and it was hung from a yard arm……And then there remains the legend of Blackbeard’s treasure. He said that it was buried somewhere and only he and the Devil knew where it was…perhaps if you go digging around on the North Carolina coast, you may find it….but watch out for a ghost with a long black beard…or maybe even a guy named Lucifer! If you do see the ghost, ask him to clear up the story for us.

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you it would be chilly and damp on Monday.  But, things improved by late afternoon with some sunshine, though it was still pretty chilly.  Tuesday should be seasonally cool.  Then we get to the midweek and things don’t look any better.  The cut off low in the Southwest gets ejected as a cold front dives down and picks it up.  The moisture drawn up will bring rain.  The official story is that it will turn to snow Wednesday night and then we get snow showers on Thursday.  But, as I’ve said before, it will be nothing more than a conversation piece in all liklihood as ground temperatures will be too warm and air temperatures during the day will be above freezing.  The real story here is that it will be quite chilly.  Highs for the end of the week into the weekend don’t get out of the 30′s and lows will get to the mid 20′s once the clouds go away.  Hey, it’s December and its not that big of a deal.

4th Coldest October In US History, Worst Outlaw in US History November 13, 2009

Biggest Denver October Snow in 12 years

Oct 2009 Avg Temp rank by State

While Global Warming cannot be determined by any one set of data from any one country, I’m sure Global Warming enthusiasts will find a tougher time in the states arguing their point. That is because October  2009 was the 4th coldest October in recorded US history, which dates back to 1895. It was also the absolute wettest October in US history. Only Florida was decidedly hotter than averge with its October 2009 coming in as the 105th coolest month, or the 11th hottest. Oklahoma checked in with the coldest October on record. As I mentioned, by itself this data is irrelevant to climate trends. But, if this had been the 4th hottest October on record, don’t you think that it would make headlines? I wonder if the media doesn’t think that cold temperatures are just as newsworthy as hot temperatures.

Al Jennings-Worst Outlaw in the West

Crime Pays Or the Worst Outlaw in the West? Al Jennings was born in 1863 Virginia. His father was a judge and Al began practicing law in the Oklahoma Territory in 1889. Al’s law-partner, brother Ed Jennings, was shot to death in October 1895 by another lawyer named Temple Houston, who was the son of famous Texan General Sam Houston. When Houston was acquitted, Al and another brother Frank vowed vengeance. They took off after Houston but never caught up to him. So, what does any good lawyer who fails at a vengeance killing do? Join a gang. He and Frank robbed a Santa Fe train with their new found friends in 1897. Well, they tried to rob a train. This may be where the scene in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid comes from because these guys tried to get the guy in charge of the mail car to open it up but he refused, just like Woodcock did with Butch. But, instead of blowing up the rail car, these desperados got chased away by the conductor.

Temple Houston

They tried again. This time they piled up railroad ties across the tracks. instead of stopping, the engineer opened up the locomotive at full throttle and simply plowed through the obstruction. They then tried to rob an express office but a simple phone call from the office brought the town sheriff and a bunch of armed men. The would be robbers fled with nothing. Then they tried a bank but someone must have blabbed because when they arrived, the bank was surrounded by numerous armed men. The bumbling robbers left empty handed. So, they gang decided to return to what they knew best…train robbing!

Cabinet Saloon Where Temple Shot Ed

In another probable Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid inspiration, they tried a 3rd time when they flagged down a Rock Island passenger train and tried to blow up the two safes on board in a box car. The safes did not open but they did manage to blow up the box car. They did get $300 from the passengers though. But, they got no more chances. They were caught and sentenced to 5 years in prison…except for Al, who got a life sentence for robbery with intent to kill.

Jennings Mugshot 1902

Al goes to prison and who does he share a cell with but a guy named William Sidney Porter. After spending time listening to the tales of Jennings, Porter was released and took up the profession of a scribe, taking the pen name, O. Henry. O. Henry is considered one of the finest American short story writers of his time. Through his short stories, Henry managed to rehabilitate the image of Jennings and, On This Date in 1902, Al Jennings was released from prison after his sentence was commuted to 5 years by none other than President William McKinley. Jennings returned to Oklahoma to practice law. So, what does a lawyer who was a terrible train robber do? Why run for office. Not just any office…why not county attorney! In 1912, he ran on the promise that “when was a train robber, I was a good train robber. And if you choose me, I will be a good prosecuting attorney.” Obviously, Al had developed a politicians ability to stretch the truth and it helped because he won the nomination but lost the election. He ran for Governor in 1914 but opposition by newspapers left his campaign in third place when the votes were counted. So, where does a failed train robber and failed politician go? Why to Hollywood!

Jennings with Fatty Arbuckle's Cousin Andrew

O. Henry had encouraged him to write so he went out west and ghost wrote several movies, several of which were supposedly based on his life. The westerns portrayed him as being more treacherous than Billy the Kid, robbed more men than Jesse James and was a participant in nearly 25 face to face shootouts. I would say that there wasn’t much mystery in who the ghost was behind those scripts. Al continued this sort of thing the rest of his life as he was behind many of the B-movie westerns through the 1950′s with the lame scripts that were as phony as the image Jennings created for himself. To perhaps illustrate the level of Al’s position in Hollywood, the photo to the left is not of Al with star Fatty Arbuckle, but instead Fatty’s cousin, Andrew. Nevertheless, it was an interesting and certainly long life for Al, who did not pass away, for real, until 1961. He lived through Reconstruction, the Indian Wars, the closing of the frontier, two world wars and the dawn of the space age. So much to write about yet he chose to write about…himself…and most of that was not true, except his name, Al Jennings. Here is a biography, which is really funny.

Weather Bottom Line:  Still looks good for the rest of the week and really, I think, the majority of the weekend.  Look for highs Friday with lots of sunshine creeping to the low to mid 60′s after a cool start.  Then Saturday we mayget to 70 or so ahead of a very deep low pressure area.  I don’t think that we get rain until Sunday evening but clouds will be increasing during the day on Sunday.  Now, this low tends to get cut off in the Southern Plains.  After several days in that region, it is progged to move north-northeast and stay to the west of our area.  I’m skeptical of this solution.  We’ll see.  Either way, we wil be in the 50′s for next week so get out and enjoy the next few days.

No Hurricanes Yet: Due to El Nino, Global Warming or Neither; US V.P. wanted for murder July 11, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season began June 1. Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives. 7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly. Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season. The most ferocious for the US was Hurricane Ike and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos. The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes. The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about. People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992. Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since.

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project. This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes. There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes. This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino was anticipated as the season unfolds. It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming. However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes. In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity. Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world. So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

Last year, A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite. Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did. Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study. This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

 So, now it’s official from NOAA, El Nino is upon us.  What that typically means is a risk for big storms on the Pacific Northwest coast this winter along with a cooler and wetter winter season for the southern plains, among other things.  One of those other things is a limitation of tropical development in the Atlantic basin.  The experts took the notion of a weak El Nino into consideration when they made their initial forecast.   Can we expect a dramatic revision downward in the hurricane forecast or is the El Nino data in line with their supposition?  Personally, I’m not so sure  that humans have enough understanding of the atmosphere and factors involved in tropical storm development to be making long term tropical forecasts.  The forecasts get revised every so often during the year so at the end, they come close, but the initial prognostications are often way way off.  We’ll see. It’s still pretty early in the hurricane season and lack of activity through mid July by no means is a predictor for the rest of the season, which typically peeks in early September.

Aaron Guns Down Alex

 On This Date In History: In recent years, we have heard the “I” word tossed about rather liberally. That word is impeach.

 President Andrew Johnson was impeached but was not convicted by one vote. President Clinton was impeached but also avoided removal from office as the Senate did not vote for conviction. Today, we haven’t heard of anyone calling for the impeachment of  the current president or vice-president.  Yet.  Someone probably will before President Obama’s 4 years are up.  There were certainly those who wanted to impeach President Bush and even Vice-President Cheney.   These calls came from allegations of malfeasance. But on this date in 1804, there is no doubt about it…the Vice-President of the United States gunned down Revolutionary War hero Alexander Hamilton.

Peter Charles Hoffer Wrote About Burr Treason Trials

Hamilton had been an aide-de-camp of Washington during the war and later led a crucial attack at the Battle of Yorktown. He became the first Secretary of the Treasury and served in that capacity for 6 years before retiring. He then formed the Federalist Party, the first political party in America. He detested Thomas Jefferson and the two developed what became known as Hamiltonian ideals and Jeffersonian ideals. Basically, Hamilton wanted a strong central government and Jefferson was for a weak central government with most of the power belonging to the states. Today, Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Burr's 1807 Treason Trial

 Anyway, in 1804, Burr was the sitting Vice-President under Jefferson and Hamilton had made some unsavory remarks about Burr, who responded with a challenge to a duel! Hamilton had been famous for dueling but had ironically pushed to outlaw the practice in New York. So, Hamilton and Burr went across the river to New Jersey. On this date in 1804, two shots rang out in Weehawken, New Jersey. Hamilton lay mortally wounded. There is great speculation regarding the incident as many suggest that Hamilton missed on purpose as he was a veteran duelist and a good shot. But there were procedures if one was to desire to not shoot one’s opponent. Hamilton did not follow the procedures. Witnesses could not determine who fired first. But what did happen, is that Burr was forced to stay out of New York for the remainder of his term as murder charges were filed. He is now left to nothing more as a footnote to history, though he was later tried for treason. Alexander Hamilton, on the other hand, has lived in immortality as the face of the ten dollar bill.

 Henry Clay in 1809 was in a Kentucky duel. He was lucky. Both he and his opponent were lousy shots.

 While Dick Cheney did in fact shoot his friend with a shotgun blast, the calls for his impeachment had nothing to do with his shooting prowess.

SPC Severe Risk Sat 8am to Sun 8am

SPC Sun Severe Risk Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Saturday is here and a cold front is on its way.  By 9 am it appeared on the radar that a line of t’storm was trying to form along the front between a strong line that extended from near Cleveland and Indy and another cluster associated with a shortwave on the front that was in Southern Illinois.  This would suggest that the risk for t’storms with the initial frontal approach will be in the late afternoon or evening in the Louisville region, which will be the heat of the day.  Guess here is that wind will be the main severe risk with perhaps some hail.  The SPC doesn’t have us in the risk for tornadic activity but,  I can tell you that studies have shown that a large number of the twisters that happen in our area are little guys that spin up and go away quickly along bow echoes…so I wouldn’t put that concern totally to bed.  Nevertheless, if you get damage from wind in a small tornado or strong straight line winds or a downburst, the results are the same so it’s really not relevant except that people like say they were hit by a tornado rather

Tornado probability

than strong wind. Guess it sounds sexier.  Anyway, the local NWS office puts the threat between 1 pm and 9 pm and I suspect that John Gordon’s folks are looking at the same line that I am.  Now, what will happen is that the front will get hung up near our area so the threat for t’storms will be with us for several days as little short waves move along the stalled boundary.  The threats each day will be dependent on the timing of the waves and the exact position of where the front will be lined up and forecasting that at this point is above my paygrade and more of a crap shoot call for anyone, so I shant try to pinpoint that as it will probably be wavering about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

Severe Wind Probability

   
   VALID 111300Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
   INTO OH VALLEY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH RIVER VALLEY…
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE

Severe Hail probability

GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
   CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HEATING THROUGH THE 70S F INTO MUCH OF
   PA/NY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
   ONTARIO/LOWER MI…WITH 80-90F TEMPS SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING…SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PORTIONS OF OH INTO WRN-CENTRAL PA/NY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES.  ACTIVITY
   WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD
   ESEWD WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   UNDER 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
  
   FARTHER SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY…REGION WILL REMAIN ON
   FRINGES OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER…AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
   MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF
   SLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
  
   …CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK OVER SWRN SD WHICH ARE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING.  MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD
   AWAIT AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASCENT
   AHEAD OF SUBTLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING STORMS LATER TODAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS…WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A
   FEW CLUSTERS/LINES PERSISTING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
   DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
  
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ND/NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  REGION REMAINS UNDER
   INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WITH RESULTANT DRY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER…ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF DIGGING IMPULSE FOR
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   INTO THE EVENING.  SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SD
   OVERNIGHT AND MAY FEED ELEVATED TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF MN WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/11/2009

Worst Outlaw in the West and A Big Ozone Hole November 13, 2008

ECMWF Tues AM 540 Line (theorhetical freeze line) near Charlotte

Look for perhaps a few peeks of sunshine late Thursday with moderating temperatures, but it won’t last. Front comes through on Friday and the mercury tumbles over the weekend. Low 40′s for highs on Saturday with perhaps a worthless flurry or wet snowflake. Later in the season this wouldn’t cause a ruckus but since its the first flake or two, watch the folks on the tube go crazy…Steve Burgin will be giddy. Mid 40′s on Sunday with again a few peeks of sun. Low 50′s on Monday but a cold front comes in and we may not get out of the 30′s on Tuesday. Remember, NOAA says this will be a warmer than normal winter. Winter doesn’t start until December 21.

Ozone Hole over Antarctica

This has nothing to do with Global Warming: Members of the 4th Estate, the Press, often get confused. In environmental issues, it is not uncommon to find the purveyors of the pen to link Global Warming and the Ozone hole. I’ve been on numerous speaking engagements and the public is often led to believe they are somehow intertwined. They are not. But, we haven’t heard much about the Ozone hole for years. Why is this? Why the Congress and legal bodies all over the world claimed the problem was solved when they banned the use of fluorocarbons. What people don’t realize is that it takes about 15-20 years for fluorocarbons to reach the top of the atmosphere where the ozone layer resides. While you may have thought we were safe, the hole has still been there all this time…the press just chose not to report it. Consequently, we have yet to find out if, indeed, man was the cause of ozone depletion. From this report, it would seem that we need to wait a little longer. The ozone hole over Antarctica was the 5th largest on record this past year. Here’s the story, that 20 years ago would have been headline news, but today is only found in odd places, like this blog.

Ozone Hole is still there

Al Jennings-Worst Outlaw in the West

Crime Pays Or the Worst Outlaw in the West? Al Jennings was born in 1863 Virginia. His father was a judge and Al began practicing law in the Oklahoma Territory in 1889. Al’s law-partner, brother Ed Jennings, was shot to death in October 1895 by another lawyer named Temple Houston. When Houston was acquitted, Al and another brother Frank vowed vengeance. They took off after Houston but never caught up to him. So, what does any good lawyer who fails at a vengeance killing do? Join a gang. He and Frank robbed a Santa Fe train with their new found friends in 1897. Well, they tried to rob a train. This may be where the scene in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid comes from because these guys tried to get the guy in charge of the mail car to open it up but he refused, just like Woodcock did with Butch. But, instead of blowing up the rail car, these desperados got chased away by the conductor.

They tried again. This time they piled up railroad ties across the tracks. instead of stopping, the engineer opened up the locomotive at full throttle and simply plowed through the obstruction. They then tried to rob an express office but a simple phone call from the office brought the town sheriff and a bunch of armed men. The would be robbers fled with nothing. Then they tried a bank but someone must have blabbed because when they arrived, the bank was surrounded by numerous armed men. The bumbling robbers left empty handed. So, they gang decided to return to what they knew best…train robbing!

In another probable Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid inspiration, they tried a 3rd time when they flagged down a Rock Island passenger train and tried to blow up the two safes on board in a box car. The safes did not open but they did manage to blow up the box car. They did get $300 from the passengers though. But, they got no more chances. They were caught and sentenced to 5 years in prison…except for Al, who got a life sentence for robbery with intent to kill.

Jennings Mugshot 1902

Al goes to prison and who does he share a cell with but a guy named William Sidney Porter. After spending time listening to the tales of Jennings, Porter was released and took up the profession of a scribe, taking the pen name, O. Henry. O. Henry is considered one of the finest American short story writers of his time. Through his short stories, Henry managed to rehabilitate the image of Jennings and, On This Date in 1902, Al Jennings was released from prison after his sentence was commuted to 5 years by none other than President William McKinley. Jennings returned to Oklahoma to practice law. So, what does a lawyer who was a terrible train robber do? Why run for office. Not just any office…why not county attorney! In 1912, he ran on the promise that “when was a train robber, I was a good train robber. And if you choose me, I will be a good prosecuting attorney.” Obviously, Al had developed a politicians ability to stretch the truth and it helped because he won the nomination but lost the election. He ran for Governor in 1914 but opposition by newspapers left his campaign in third place when the votes were counted. So, where does a failed train robber and failed politician go? Why to Hollywood!

Jennings with Fatty Arbuckle's Cousin Andrew

O. Henry had encouraged him to write so he went out west and ghost wrote several movies, several of which were supposedly based on his life. The westerns portrayed him as being more treacherous than Billy the Kid, robbed more men than Jesse James and was a participant in nearly 25 face to face shootouts. I would say that there wasn’t much mystery in who the ghost was behind those scripts. Al continued this sort of thing the rest of his life as he was behind many of the B-movie westerns through the 1950′s with the lame scripts that were as phony as the image Jennings created for himself. To perhaps illustrate the level of Al’s position in Hollywood, the photo to the left is not of Al with star Fatty Arbuckle, but instead Fatty’s cousin, Andrew. Nevertheless, it was an interesting and certainly long life for Al, who did not pass away, for real, until 1961. He lived through Reconstruction, the Indian Wars, the closing of the frontier, two world wars and the dawn of the space age. So much to write about yet he chose to write about…himself…and most of that was not true, except his name, Al Jennings. Here is a biography, which is really funny.