Chimp Challenges Experts For 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast May 28, 2010

Hurricane Andrew Sequence Aug 23, 24, 25, 1992

"Dr. James Hansimian"

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: Let us begin with the 2010 hurricane season prognastication of Dr. James Hansimian(video).   He is predicting 6 to 8 hurricanes for the 2010 season.  Never heard of him?  You probably will.  You see, he is a chimpanzee whom the National Center for Public Policy Research has put on the record in an effort to emphasize how little humans really know about the climate.  They claim that NOAA has been “wrong three out of the last 4 years and 7 of the last 11.”  They say they are not hiring “Dr. Hansimian” to ridicule  the effort and dedication of climate and hurricane specialists but instead to highlight that, even with the greatest minds, competence, tools and methodology, humans do not have a complete understanding of the climate.  They say that they will make another video in December 2010 of Dr. Hansimian and determine who was more correct.  In the meantime, let us look what some of the leading authorities have to say. 

Hurricane Headlines Used to Contain Facts, Not Sensational Hyperbole

Now, I already had a pretty good idea of what the National Hurricane Center would say.  What is amazing to me though is the media coverage.  I looked at the headline from USA Today and it says, Fierce Hurricane Season Predicted.   CNN had a story about the exact same subject but its link was a more subdued, “Hurricane Season Could be Above Average.”   Nevertheless, the actual headline to the story was a more menacing, “Hurricane Season Could be ‘Active’ or “Extremely Active.’”  AFP via Yahoo News was even more dramatic by trumpeting, “2010 Hurricane Season May Be Worst on Record.”   But, Reuters via Yahoo News had a little different spin as its headline read, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005.”   Fox News says, “Hurricane Season Could be Strongest Ever Say Top Meteorologists.”  I have yet to find any quote from anyone at NOAA or the NHC that verifies any  of these headlines except fo the one from CNN, which not-coincidentally is the least sensational.   Interestingly, CBS4 in South Florida took a different tact.  Instead of focusing on the threat to the United States, instead its headline was, “NHC Director Fears For Haiti This Hurricane Season.”  That one is right on the money.  A tropical cyclone for Haiti of any magnitude would not be good and they get nailed in one form or another very frequently.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Names 2005 to 2010 (In 2005 they ran out of names so went to Alpha, Beta...etc.)

So, what did was the National Hurricane Center 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast on May 27?   To begin with, the press release from the NHC had a headline that read, “NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic  Hurricane Season.”  Note that this headline lacks the hyperbole and extreme adjectives of the media.  As usual, they give themselves a wide berth by saying that there will be between 14 and 23 named storms.  That would be tropical cyclones of tropical storm force or more.  The difference between 14 and 23 is pretty large.  Eight to 14 of those storms are expected to be hurricanes with 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes which means category 3 or greater.  For the past several years, NOAA taking some of the thunder from the NHC.  I believe they are in the process of changing the name of the NHC to the NOAA National Hurricane Center; I suppose it’s an effort to establish that its a governmental agency.  In any event, the initial quote from their press release is not from an NHC forecaster or the Director.  Instead, its from the Under-Secretary of Commerce, who said, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record.”   Notice she said “If” and “could” and related it to “one of the more active” seasons.  The reason they give is warm ocean waters, no El Nino and a decadal cycle.  The last one is the most significant.  Accepted science generally has concluded that the Atlantic season goes in cycles of about 30 years in which there is great activity and, conversely, 30 years with low activity.  Since 1995, we have been in an “active era.” 

2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Now, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the most active in recorded history.  Keep in mind that it fell in part of the current “active era” and that recorded history is limited.  The first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in 1969 so prior to that, only ship reports were able to confirm hurricanes and ships kinda like to avoid storms so its possible there were several over the years that were missed.  Anyway, in 2005 there were 28 named storms with 15 hurricanes including the two notable powerful storms, Rita and Katrina.  That means, in order for the headlines of some of these media outlets to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season would have to have 5 more named storms than the top end of the forecast and one more hurricane than the extreme forecasted.  The headlines also neglect to take into account a very important and possible caveat from the press release that could put a damper on the number of storms:

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

Dr. William Gray: Making Hurricane Season Forecasts for At least 27 Years

Now, for 27 years one of the leading hurricane forecasting expert has been Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University.  Until recent years, he was about the only one who tried to make a forecast.  The NHC lately has been getting into the game and diminishing the role of Dr. Gray.  Dr. Gray is now has handed over some of the duties to Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the pair lead the efforts at Colorado State.  Back in early April, the Colorado State University  team issued their 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and noted warm ocean temperatures and a weakening El Nino as the reason for a more active season.  However, their numbers are more pedestrian.  They suggest 15 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes.  They go a step further and say that there is a 69% probability of major hurricane striking the US which is higher than the 52% of the 20th century.   Another tropical cyclone forecasting service, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast is somewhere in between the NHC  and  CSU with 16.3 (+/- 4.1) named storms, 8.5 (+/- 2.8) hurricanes and 4 (+/- 1.7) major hurricanes.

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005

On average, the number of named storms in any given year in the North Atlantic is 10 (9.6) with 6 (5.9) hurricanes and 2.3 of those becoming major hurricanes.  So, both forecast teams are predicting an above average season.  It would seem that the folks at CSU might be a looking on the low end with an eye on the El Nino not diminishing completely to neutral until after the hurricane season has started.  The NHC seems to be banking on the El Nino coming to an end sooner, or at least allowing for that possibility, thus they have the substantially larger number of storms on the high end of their range.  But, again….Dr. Gerry Bell’s words make it sound as if they think that a La Nina condition developing is a real possibility.  The two forecasts are almost identical except that the NHC gives itself a wide berth so, if by chance there are a bunch of storms, then they can say they said so.  They also can avoid making any huge revisions as the season progresses as has been done with some initial hurricane season forecasts in the past.  The truth is, it’s just a forecast.  We’re in the middle of an active 30 year cycle and so its expected to be more active.  How much more active is an academic exercise.  In the first place, it’s impossible to predict so far out any specific disturbance developing in exactly the right conditions.  Remember, you need more than just warm water to have a tropical cyclone.   Also, just because a tropical cyclone develops, it doesn’t mean that it will hit land.  A tropical cyclone’s job in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical region to the polar region.  They don’t really care if there is land in the way or ocean. 

Just Because It's a Headline, Doesn't Mean that It's True

And one more thing….note that nothing was said about Global Warming in either the Colorado State University forecast or the National Hurricane Center outlook.  They do refer to a warm surface temperature anomoly, but that is about as close as you get.  And, if it were due to Global Warming or Climate Change, then it would stand to reason that there would be more tropical cyclones all around the world.  As it happens, the NHC forecasts a Below Average Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Beyond that, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has a 2010 NW Pacific Typhoon Season Forecast that is near average.  TSR also has a forecast for the Australian region for tropical activity to be about 10% below average.  Going by the forecasts…well above average for the North Atlantic, below average for the Eastern Pacific and Australian region and about average for the NW Pacific.  Doesn’t sound like a global climate calamity, does it?  So, if the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season does have a signficant number of hurricanes, get ready for the media reports that try to tie it to Global Warming.  But, don’t believe it.  And, if the number that actually does come about is less than forecast (as was the case in 2009) then look for an explainer, which the NHC has already conveniently put out there.  See, they’re pretty smart.  If the season is slightly above average, they can say, “we said so.”  If its way above average, they can say, “we said so.”  And if the number of storms is less than the predicted range, they can say, ” we warned you about a possible La Nina.”  All the bases are covered.  That’s what a lot of guys on TV do as they can always claim victory, no matter what, when they say “Variable cloudy skies and a 50% chance of rain.” 

NAM Friday Evening Precipitation Forecast

Penn's Store in Gravel Switch, KY Since 1845

Weather Bottom Line:  I had to go to Gravel Switch Kentucky to help the folks at Kentucky’s oldest store, Penn’s Store.  Actually, it’s not just Kentucky’s oldest store, it is considered the oldest country store in America.  I am told that it began operation in 1845, though I’ve seen published reports that claim 1850.  But, I think I’ll go with the word of the Penn family.   About a month ago, when Tennessee was getting relatively sparse coverage of flooding, Kentucky got even less coverage.  Of course, South Central  Kentucky only got 11 inches of rain and parts of Tennessee got 15-20 inches so I suppose that it fits that if Tennessee got slim coverage, then Kentucky got none.  Anyway, I was helping them clean up and rid the store of a snake and so I could not post on Thursday when the NHC  Hurricane Forecast came out.  So, I’m a day late.

GFS Monday Evening Precip Outlook

I did see a few towering cumulous clouds late in the day…about the time I was playing St. Patrick and ridding the Penn’s Store of a 4 or 5 foot snake.  On our return to Louisville, there were some pretty decent wind gusts and it was much cooler, leading me to believe that there were some decent thunderstorms around, which did not surprise me.  The weak boundary will still be in the area on Friday so we will see some scattered storms again with highs in the mid 80′s.  We warm a bit over the weekend with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80′s.  We may have an isolated t’storm on Sunday but more likely there will be scattered afternoon storms on Memorial Day.

Tropical Storm Fay Has Chance To Gain Some Kick August 16, 2008

For the Most Recent Update on Tropical Storm Fay, CLICK HERE

If you look at the spaghetti map of all of the hurricane forecast models and compare it with the official

Spaghetti Track 08/16 00Z

forecast, you will find that it is off to the east of most of the models. The boys at

Spaghetti Intensity Graph 08/16 00Z

the NHC are being conservative, waiting for more data to confirm the shift farther west. But, they’ve gone half way in that the track has the storm skirting the southern coast of Cuba, keeping the circulation offshore. The structure of the storm is decent for one over the mountainous regions of the Domincan Republic and once it gets over the water the only inhibitor will be the mountains of Cuba. The NHC also takes the track across the western third of Cuba instead of following a track lengthwise over the island which, again, will give it more opportunity to develop. Where they differ from the models is that they go ahead and turn it up Florida’s west coast and the make it a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall. But, if you look at the spaghetti intensity graphic, you see many make it much stronger. That is reflective of the models keeping the storm over the open Gulf farther west than the official forecast track. Bottom line is that if it follows the models track the liklihood of the storm becoming formidable is much greater.

What is going on here is that the storm is moving around a ridge centered in the mid Atlantic. A trof will come down and erode the western periphery of the ridge. The question is when. Don’t be surprised to see this guy go farther west than the forecast. The NAM is the only model that takes it east of the forecast track insisting on keeping it to the east of Florida. Models indicate that there will be a ridge of some strength somewhere in the Western Gulf that should prevent the storm from going too far west.

Gov’t Uses Press To Gain Support For War; NHC Uses Hurricane Hunter Looking For Fay August 15, 2008

We got a few passing showers that brought some welcome relief. Hope you were one of the lucky ones. This will be our last chance for rain through the weekend, though there may be a few lucky folks in the extreme southern part of the viewing area Friday afternoon. In spite of the need for rain, it should be relatively comfortable though.

Tropics Still Waiting On Fay….(EDIT-wait no more…here’s latest report on Tropical Storm Fay)

8/14 spaghetti track 18Z

It appears that the boys at the NHC is being very conservative with this particular

08/14 NAM 18Z

storm. In the past I have written that I thought that they were pretty aggressive with developing storms or naming storms with not a lot of substance. This one looks pretty good on satellite but Jack Beven at the NHC says that the good convection is offset to the west of the circulation which is not strong at this time. This was confirmed by the Hurricane Hunter today but the NHC says its getting into an enviroment that is not hostile for development. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one either go straight to Tropical Storm Fay and skip the depression stage or it won’t stay at the depression stage for long. 14 out of 15 intensity models take it eventually to at least tropical storm strength with about half going to hurricane status. The NAM (eta) continues to deepen the storm into a formidable hurricane in the Bahamas by Monday morning. The GFS has the feature in about the same

08/14 spaghetti Intensity 18Z

spot at the same time but maybe as a minimal tropical storm. As I had mentioned

08/14 GFS 18Z

previously, the spaghetti tracks had been wanting to take it into South Florida and maybe the Gulf. But what troubled me about that was the general trofiness that we’ve had over the Eastern US that has brought the nice weather to Louisville and elsewhere. Well, the new spaghetti run seems to indicate that just about every model has picked up on this and it wants to take the storm off the US SE Coast. This makes sense. Unless the storm can get under the trof, it would seem to me that it’s unlikely it can get into the Gulf. BTW…the GFS suddenly no longer has any hint of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf in two weeks. Told you not to trust the long term prognostications. This happens a lot. A long term computer will put in a feature way out…then take it out…and often it suddenly reappears down the line. We’ll have to wait and see about that one. You can find thumbnails of the mentioned models and graphics. The NHC put out a special statement on disturbance 92L and it follows.

Here’s the 5pm update on the tropical disturbance 92L

On this Date In History: The United States Government worked directly with the media to stir up support for war with German on this date in 1915. The newspaper to the left is from the New York World on Aug 15, 1915 when it reported the tactics Germany was using. Now, to be sure, the stories were true but the World got the story from the federal government who leaked it under the condition that the source not be revealed. I guess that pledge got broken at some point in time because I’m sitting here writing about it and you are reading about it. Presumably, the secret wasn’t revealed until well after the war was over.

The Lusitania sunk by a German U-Boat on May 15, 1915 and most school history classes will point to that event as one that got Americans agitated. While it may have raised eyebrows but the American people remained largely isolationist and instead of real outrage, it was more like a collective yawn that was heard across the pond. But, with the sinking in the back of their minds, the American people got aroused when they heard from the World that Germans were planning on secretly buying all of America’s chlorine to prevent the US from selling it to Britain and France for use in poison gas. The Germans were going to secretly build munition factories in the US, take orders from the Allies and then not deliver and they intended to buy up so much incendiary powder that other companies would be unable to fill orders.

Pretty clever really. They were going to work within the American system to mess up the supply of their opponents. So, how did the Americans uncover this plot? They became the benefactors of a nitwit German spy. Heinrich Albert was a commercial attache at the German Embassy. He kept meticulous records of all the German covert operations in the US. He carried his notes in a briefcase on a train and Secret Service Agent Frank Burke, who was assigned to tail Albert, grabbed the case and ran off the train. Albert quickly realized his mistake and saw Burke running away. He gave pursuit but failed when Burke jumped on a streetcar and convinced the motorman that he was being chased by a lunatic. The motorman responded by skipping the next stop, leaving Albert out of breath and out of luck.

It was the leaking of the information to the media that got the American public to begin to relinquish their isolationist stance. But, it wasn’t the until the Zimmerman letter of 1917 that the US went to war when it was learned that Germany was trying to make a deal with Mexico to invade the US. I wonder if the information from the briefcase was leaked to the press in an attempt by lower level public officials to undermine President Wilson’s steadfast claim to neutrality. That practice continued with such incidents as the Pentagon Papers. Watergate and various leaks regarding the Iraq war…underlings who disagree with the boss running and telling the press. While some of these events may have created desirable results in your mind, it can be a dangerous practice to have loose cannons running around the government.

Supreme Court Justice Arrested, Still Looking for Fay and Northwest Passage Opens August 14, 2008

For the latest on Tropical Storm Fay, click here

If you are looking for the tropical stuff, look at the bottom. If you are looking for rain, look somewhere else than Louisville. Except for an errant shower on Thursday(be thankful if you get a shower), we will stay dry through the weekend with temperatures around seasonal averages and humidity levels slowly increasing but it’s still going to be pretty comfortable by Mid-August standards.

Arctic Ice Map

Arctic Sea Ice Still Melting: If you recall on these here pages we talked about the nitwit reporting about the possibility of the Arctic Ice melting and Santa Claus having to put on his swimming trunks.(Symon Sez-Just The Facts!) I ripped the AP reporter for grabbing a few statistics and putting them in the top of his story while burying the qualifiers and other opinions. At the time, I believe there was more sea ice up north than at that time last year. Well, the ice began melting pretty quickly in July, partly due to storms blowing in and breaking up the newest and thinnest ice. Like last year, the Northwest Passage is now open. But it’s pretty shallow so its not something that big ships can take. They take the more northern Parry Channel which remains clogged with ice. Last year, the Parry Channel opened up in mid-August and it’s possible that it may open again this year before the melting ends. Either way, it appears that Santa is safe. Why do I think that the AP will not run a story with a headline trumpeting the fact that the North Pole did not melt away. Here’s the complete story from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

National Snow and Ice Data Center Aug 11 report

On This Date In History: On this date in 1889, US Supreme Court Justice Stephen J. Field was arrested for murder making him the only member of that body ever arrested for such a crime. The story goes back to a divorce case in which Justice Field ruled that the marriage between Sarah Althea Hill and a wealthy mine owner was invalid and she therefore was not entitled to any portion of his wealth. And neither was her then current husband, David Terry, who like Field was a former California Supreme Court justice. The courtroom erupted into a brawl and Field ordered the couple jailed for contempt. The pair publically announced revenge on the Justice.

About a year later, Field and his bodyguard, US Marshal David Neagle, were riding on a train to San Francisco. Also on the train was Sarah and David Terry. At a stop in Stockton, California the Terrys spotted field in the station dining room. David went for Field while Sarah went back to the train. Dave slapped the Justice and Neagle pulled his revolver and told Dave to stop while identifying himself as an officer. David Terry started fumbling with his jacket. Neagle fatally shot David Terry as his wife came running up with a satchel holding a loaded gun. Neagle and Field were arrested on a murder charge.

California’s Governor ordered Field released and the case against Neagle ended up…in the US Supreme Court that ruled in a landmark decision that since Neagle was acting under federal authority, he could not be subject to California law. I suppose that is why no one ever asked the Texas justice system to charge the ATF agents with anything in the Waco/ Branch Davidian case several years ago. I suppose that Field probably recused himself from the case but it may be the only case in which a sitting Supreme Court Justice was actively involved in a situation that set a legal precedent.

12Z 08/13 NRL Track Invest 92L

So, What’s Up with the Tropics? Well, we’re still waiting on Fay to show itself. The NHC was so unimpressed with disturbance 92L that it cancelled the hurricane hunter for Wednesday. I suppose they are saving the taxpayers money on fuel costs. But, the satellite imagery looks fairly interesting and the intensity spaghetti model still has half of the 16 computers taking it at least to tropical storm level

Spaghetti Intensity 08/13

with a few going to the hurricane level as it moves into the Bahamas. The spaghetti tracks are all very similar but the other half of the intensity models are split with part taking it to tropical storm and back to depression status or keeping it as a depression or less. The other part take it to storm to depression and then back toward tropical storm status. The 18Z ETA was pretty bullish and makes it a hurricane in the Bahamas in 84

Spaghetti Track 08/13

hours. The GFS puts it in the same region as an open area of low pressure. I’ve attached all of the accompanying maps. BTW..the last two runs of the GFS wants to put a tropical cyclone of some intensity in the Gulf in two weeks….but we’re talking about two weeks and the rate of accuracy of models begins to deteriorate after two days, let alone two weeks. But, it will be fun to watch and see if that’s the case.

18Z NAM 08/13

18Z GFS 08/13 84 hours

Still Waiting on Fay and Riding a Bike Across America August 13, 2008

Intensity 00Z 08/13

OOZ 08/13 spaghetti track

We still do not have a depression. The hurricane hunter didn’t find anything more than a broad circulation. But, the spaghetti maps remain in general agreement for the track and most of the models insist on making it a tropical cyclone of some sort moving into the Bahamas. One is really going bananas taking it up well over 100 kts in several days. The spaghetti track and intensity spaghetti data for 00Z Wednesday is above.

Our weather remains very nice. A little disturbance wanders by to our south but we are not anticipating rain later in the week at this time, though it bears watching. We could use the rain. Some of the climate tracking models indicate that the trofiness over the east that has brought us such nice weather would steer anything developing up the east coast or out to sea, but the models themselves do not seem to go along with that. We’ll have to wait and see. Below is the special statement from the NHC from Tuesday afternoon regarding disturbance 92L. I speculate that the boys at the NHC are still bullish on this system as they put out this special statement. I can’t think of another good reason for them to do so.

++++++++++++

WONT41 KNHC 122053 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 455 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT…AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY…INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER… THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW…IF NECESSARY. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

Across America In 80 Days! On this date in history, a man who was a butcher by trade in Oakland, California was on his way to accomplish a herculean feat, but didn’t really make a big deal about it. George Loher decided it would be a “pleasant undertaking” to ride his bicycle across America. He left San Francisco on Aug. 11, 1895 and on this date was on his way to Oregon on his Stearns Yellow Fellow. The Stearns’ company model was pretty similar to bicycles of today and Loher was weighed down with over 50 pounds of equipment, clothes and supplies to such an extent that observers weren’t sure he’d ever get out of the Bay Area. But, he did.

It would seem Loher took the northern route, heading to Oregon and then across thirteen states and territories. He crossed deserts, sandy valleys and 5 mountain ranges. Believe it or not, he was not the first to ride a two-wheeler across the country. Years before, a guy named Thomas Stevens rode a high-wheeler across the nation and later around the world. But, the tea-totalling butcher and “wheelman” enthusiast was the first to do so with the new pneumatic tire and for some odd reason, he had no brakes. Seems, his method of stopping was to drop a bunch of brush and sticks tied to a rope on his bike and drag it behind to slow his momentum. I don’t think it worked too well. In Oregon, his trip almost ended when he nearly ran into a train. In Washington, he broke his front forks and in Montana he smashed his front wheel on a boulder.

Undaunted, he continued on and in North Dakota he must have gotten into trouble because he was cursed at in Swedish. His luck changed in Wisconsin because he took time to party down with a bunch of tobacco traders. One doesn’t think of Ohio as being a big oil state but he rode between oil wells in the Buckeye State. One publication describes him as a typical tourist. Well, Snow White and I just returned from an adventure in Virginia and Washington DC and we didn’t decide to visit a prison but Loher thought it would be a good idea to visit Sing Sing prison in New York. The warden must have thought he was some sort of VIP because he let the traveler take a rest in the electric chair. Loher said “I found it a comfortable piece of furniture (that is, when the dynamo is not running.)”

Loher finished his adventure in 80 days, which would have made Jules Verne smile. And then…he returned to Oakland on a train and went back to his butcher shop. He wrote a journal about his exploits but didn’t publish it because he thought it was too ordinary. Hence, he was lost to the pages of history until the late 1960′s when he grand-daughter was rummaging through some of his stuff and found the manuscript. She had it published in the early 1970′s.

This is rather odd in American lore because most of the time people do extra-ordinary things…in this case cycling over 4300 miles in the days before automobiles and paved roads and when Swedish was still being spoken in North Dakota…and then cash in with a book or something. Not George. He simply went home. Apparently, he did it because, as one published article says, he “wanted a larger slice of life” and he certainly must have been adventuresome because he neglected to pack a map. He just rode like Forrest Gump until he ran into the ocean.

The book is called The Wonderful Ride and it looks like you can find it on antique or used book websites.

Looking For Fay and Finding The United States Emperor Who Dissolved The Republicans and Democrats August 12, 2008

Enjoy The “Global Warming” Mid-August Mild Stretch. Louisville Meteorologists are Currently the Maytag Repairmen of Meteorology.

Is Tropical Storm Fay Not Far Away?

(For the latest update on the tropics click the “home” key above or click here.

Spaghetti Track

The latest satellite photo of Tropical Disturbance 92L is at the bottom. The imagery is fairly nice looking. The NHC is probably going to send out a plane to snoop about in the next 24 hours. The spaghetti tracks, that are available with a click on the left, indicate a general WNW movement of the storm with some variations as we move on in time. You can find the forecast track from the United States Naval Laboratory at the

NRL Track 8/12

right. The 12Z WRF has it developing pretty nicely by 84 hours with a good closed circulation at 850mb NW of Puerto Rico. The progged steering currents seem to indicate that it may move more west at that point and approach the Bahamas. The NOGAPS has it near the Bahamas in 144 hours though not as strong. The 6Z GFS takes a more westerly

Intensity Forecast 8/12

movement across Cuba and therefore does not advertise good development due to it’s interaction with land. 12 of the 16 models take it above tropical storm strengthth in the next few days with a few making it a hurricane. The boys at the NHC seem somewhat bullish on the prospects of development. Florida and the SE coast could potentially be threatened, though it will be dependent on frontal activity which has been unusually active for this time of year and brought unseasonably nice conditions to Louisville and the rest of the east in recent days. Any boundary lurking along the eastern seaboard would tend to turn the storm northeast. However, some of the models want to slip it underneath any trofiness, which would give the Gulf a chance, though that scenario seems a bit remote to me. Here is the latest discussion from NHC.

NORTON I

On This Date In History:The Democratic and Republican parties in the United States were abolished on this date in 1869 ” because of party strife now existing within our realm.” One could probably make such a declaration today and perhaps you may think it’s a good idea. However, at the time in 1869, the argument surrounded Reconstruction. Joshua Norton as a commodities trader in San Francisco in the mid 19th Century. He apparently lost his memory when his attempt to corner the rice market blew up in is face and he lost everything. On Sept. 17, 1859 decreed himself Emperor Norton I of the United States and Protector of Mexico. After news hit the papers, San Franciscans took a liking to his royal highness and a special chair was set aside for him at the state legislature. He ate for free at fine restaurants across the city. When a man tried to have him committed, a judge dismissed the action citing Norton as “just about the best going in the king line.” Somewhere in San Francisco, a monument in his honor was erected following his death in 1880. Do you think that one of the current presidential candidates would like to cancel the election and declare himself emperor? Here is a summary of the exploits of Emperor Norton I.

Summary of Emperor Norton I of the United States

Edouard Forecast Tracks Shifts A Shade Prior to Landfall August 5, 2008

Pragmatically, there is very little difference from the previous post.  Official forecast track has shifted a

Edouard Track 5 AM EDT 08/05

shade but the storm will go wherever it will so it really doesn’t matter what the models claim.  It looks much healthier on satellite than on Monday.  The important thing is that it is moving near Galveston area as a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane and will continue to move into the Texas Hill Country, say from Brenham to Pflugerville and then on to Marble Falls. If the new track is valid, then the west end of Galveston and west side of Houston willl really be not that greatly affected and Beaumont and Vidor will take and even as far east as Lake Charles will feel a greater impact. Otherwise,  all of the comments in the previous post remain valid.  Track Edouard via an Interactive National Radar capable of zooming to street level and looping by clicking here.., Click on graphics to left to enlarge views of tracking map and spaghetti track.  Previous post has sea surface temperatures as well as spaghetti track for disturbance in Atlantic.

000

Edouard Spaghetti Track 6Z 0805

WTNT45 KNHC 050839
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008

WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
OVERNIGHT.  SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER
DEFINED…HOWEVER THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL.
PEAK DOPPLER VELOCITIES WERE NEAR 65 KT AT ELEVATIONS OF 3000-5000
FT AND THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SFMR RECORDED SURFACE WINDS
OF 53 AND 56 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN.  ADDITIONALLY…THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE 68 KT OVER THE SAME AREA…CORRESPONDING TO
A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 54 KT.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS HAVE A VERY HIGH SKIN TEMPERATURE BUT DO NOT HAVE A
PARTICULARLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS INCREASING SO DYNAMICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE
LANDFALL.  EDOUARD MIGHT STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
THE COAST BUT…AS NOTED EARLIER…THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE
RATHER CLOSELY.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE…AND IS NOW 300/10.  THE
STEERING FLOW FOR EDOUARD IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS…BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 29.3N  93.4W    55 KT
12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.1N  95.1W    55 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  97.2W    35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.9N  99.3W    30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.8N 101.3W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     08/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Remember Apollo 11? Iceland Won’t Forget Bertha, Media Won’t Forget Cristobal, Texas Shouldn’t Forget Dolly. July 20, 2008

It still looks to be hot for the next couple of days, though rain chances will increase. There will probably be a few storms roaming about in the heat of the day today and more numerous tomorrow in the afternoon and more pointedly in the evening and overnight when a front eases through. The front will take the temperatures down a peg or two and also will flip flop around the region for much of the week, bringing us rain chances for several days. Here are the thumbnails for the Sunday and Monday SPC outlook. The northern fringe is in the slight risk for today with the entire area included from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1969, Neil Armstrong and Edwin E. Aldrin landed on the moon. Michael Collins was left behind in the command module (Columbia) orbiting the moon. Armstrong and Aldrin had landed in the Lunar Module (LEM) called the “Eagle” with but 1 second of fuel remaining. It was nearly a catastrophe. “Houston” was the first word ever spoken from the moon…a point of pride for Texans. The first seven words were, “Houston, Tranquility Base, the Eagle has Landed.” They had landed in the “sea of tranquility” on the moon, a name given to a region that appeared to have few craters or boulders. I’ll spare you more details and let you look it all up yourself.

But consider this….the earth spins at 1100 mph. The moon is 243,000 miles from the earth and rotates around the rotating earth in 28 day cycles. Space is 3 degrees Kelvin, or 3 degrees above absolute zero which is when all molecular activity stops. There is no atmosphere. It is the most inhospitable place for any human. There were no micro computers and not even calculators. In order to pull it off, calculations had to be extremely precise. The burning of the engines had to be down to the millisecond. All angles had to be exact as well as speed and acceleration. Any slight mishap would spell disaster. Engineers relied on slide rules and theory. Armstrong, Collins and Aldrin as well as all astronauts, even today, are extremely brave frontiersman. It is absolutely unimaginable what happened on this date in 1969. By all rights, it shouldn’t have happened. It is one of the few times that “Yankee Ingenuity” truly lived up to its billing. If you know physics, you know how remarkable this was…if you don’t…take my word for it, it was unbelievable.

Perhaps more unbelievable, my daughter was born on this date on the 25 year anniversary of America’s greatest triumph.

Is Dolly Developing? Maybe. Same story as previous. Here’s the latest on the guy in the Caribbean.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT… LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. UPDATE:  Yes…we now have Dolly.  Dolly Discussion.

Bertha Looks to Bisect Iceland: Bertha is losing some steam and some tropical characteristics but not all that quickly. That is probably the most remarkable thing about this storm is that it is over water that is but 65 degrees and yet, still is somewhat tropical in nature. It is not overly remarkable that its going to Iceland. Storms often end up in mainland Europe but there’s a big fat high there that is preventing it from turning east so, Iceland it is! Here’s the discussion.

Cristobal To Bring Big Surf to Big Tony: Look for Cristobal to get some big headlines and a place in the national news. Not for it’s ferocity but for the fact that it will be along the east coast. It’s good to scare people in the media these days. Don’t be surprised to hear “what if this was a major storm” stories. Well, it’s not…probably won’t make hurricane. It will kick up the seas from Maryland to Maine and that’s about it. Maybe they’ll be surfing on the Jersey Shore with Pauly Walnuts and Tony Soprano hanging ten.  Here’s the discussion on Cristobal.