Tropical Storm Fay’s Future Clouded August 18, 2008

for a more recent update on fay, click here

Track Fay’s Progress 24/7 by clicking on this US Interactive Radar (click here) that allows you to loop the image and zoom to any location in the nation to street level. Find out the weather for friends and relatives along Fay’s path or anywhere else in the country. There is also computer derived analysis of individual storms.

Fay is pretty much going on schedule but that will change soon. It crossed Key West at about

Fay NHC track NRL Graphic 5 pm 0818

3PM and winds went calm there at that time. So, there was some sort of eye and the pressure had dropped to 998mb with the late afternoon

Fay Spaghetti Track Model 0818 18Z

Hurricane Hunter pass. It is trying to intensify and will get close to minimal hurricane status just prior to landfall near Ft. Myers. It takes a track similar to Charlie toward Jacksonville. After that, its way up in the air. Several models want to take it back to the west in the SE US. Couple want to take it back to the Gulf and some take it into the Atlantic. Others want to stall it in Georgia and the boys at the NHC keep going along with the ones that take it well inland though a building ridge will make that difficult. The official track starts to curl it around but I suspect that what will happen is that this guy slows down to a crawl in North Florida or South Georgia as it gets blocked by the high building in from the northeast. That in turn will drive it west. It will be interesting if it ends up back in the Gulf for redevelopment. It’s not necessarily probable but not totally out of the question. Bottom line is that there will be a lot of rain in the SE and I’m sure that Lake Lanier will be getting plenty of water so we don’t have to hear from the Weather Channel about that subject any more. Sometimes I think that they act like the whole world revolves around Atlanta.

Invest 94L NRL fcst track 0818 5pm

Also…interesting situation with Invest 94L. Its a disturbance way out there. The Naval Research Lab track still maintains that it will be a

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model Track 0818 18Z

tropical storm heading toward the Yucatan Channel. The spaghetti models insist on a storm developing and moving north of Puerto Rico. That is a wide berth. But, I think the important thing is that both scenarios have a another developing tropical cyclone and all interests should pay attention. There is a weird weather pattern going on in the Lower 48 that is more reminscent of late hurricane season toward the fall. Fay didn’t behave as one might expect for August and this next guy that will probably become Gustav seems likely to misbehave as well.

Here is the 5pm discussion for Fay on August 18 from Jack Beven at the NHC.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER…AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ADDITIONALLY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB. HOWEVER…THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS
TO INCREASE…AS AIRCRAFT…RADAR…AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM…AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR…THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT…WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO
THIS PATTERN. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND
THEREAFTER. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…WITH A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC…FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND
MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR. FINALLY…THE GFDL
AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY’S
PROGRESS…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK…WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT…THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS…THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT…IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 24 HR…THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND…AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS
DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT…SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004…SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.6N 81.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W 55 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W 40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Wrong Way To Get A Parade; Led Zeppelin and Tropics Update July 18, 2008

The Song Remains The Same It’s the old Led Zeppelin Forecast. Humidity levels should begin to increase some as we progress through the weekend. Otherwise, it’s the same thing. Highs at the airport will be around 94 or 95 but where you live probably more like 91 or so. There may still be an isolated afternoon t’storm on Sunday but we get more activity, at least on a scattered basis as we go to the first few days of the week ahead as a weak front tries to move in but it will generally wash out and go on the retreat, putting us back into the same pattern again for the latter part of next week.

On The Led Zeppelin Reunion Update: Seems that Robert Plant is holding up a big anticipated reunion tour as he has decided to extend his current trip with some bluegrass band. He must be having too much fun.

Tropical Disturbance: I’m tired of Bertha. It’s going to head northeast and turn extra-tropical but will still be fairly formidable. I still wouldn’t be surprised if it affected England or some other part of Europe. As for the disturbance in the Western Caribbean. It’s still pretty far south near 12.5 or 13 North Latitude. The Hurricane Hunter keeps finding a large broad circulation but nothing to pinpoint. So, it’s not a depression. But, you can see from the map from the boys at the Naval Research Laboratory that the general track is slightly north of west, which puts it more over open water and will allow Coriolis forces to perhaps get involved and get a better circulation. The models really don’t do much with it…you can make an argument that the Navy’s NOGAPS takes it into the Bay of Campeche after crossing Central America and Mexico. In short, there is absolutely no evidence that this will develop. However, in these situations, the computers are often confused and so as this guy moves along, don’t be surprised to at least get a depression and then if it gets some good upper support…a hat if you will…maybe something to look at … by then the models will figure out where it is. That’s a lot of ifs and buts.

Headed the Wrong Way Into History: Douglas Corrigan was an experienced pilot in the 1930′s. He in 1927 worked for the company that built Charles Lindbergh’s Spirit of St. Louis. He worked on the installation of the gas tanks, the wings and instrument panel. In 1935, he had aspirations of flying across the ocean too but was denied permission to make a transatlantic flight because authorities said his plane wasn’t airworthy for such an adventure. Nevertheless, he was cleared to fly across the country. So, he got into his somewhat dilapidated single engine airplane and took off from New York to head home to California. But, he claimed that he got lost in the clouds and his compass was stuck. Instead of going west, he went east and crossed the Atlantic On This Date in 1938. He became an international sensation and earned the moniker “Wrong Way Corrigan.” He even got a ticker-tape parade in New York in which 1 million people lined the parade route.

Corrigan stuck to his story until his death in 1995. Lost in the hoopla was the fact that it was still a very courageous and dangerous feat to fly solo across the Atlantic. Since “Wrong Way” stuck to his story and got a parade. I wonder if Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are expecting the same treatment.

Global Warming Causes Delusional Behavior? Bertha’s Hurricane Behaviour July 9, 2008

There are those who claim that proponents of anthropogenic global warming are lunatics. The word lunatic has actually become a catch all phrase for anything from people with wild ideas, to those who disagree with us to those who are actually mentally ill. It actually arises from early times when it was thought that mental illness had something to do with the phases of the moon, thus the latin root usage of luna.

It would seem now that researchers have in fact found a psychiatric condition related to global warming though it is not for the proponents but instead for some who may have developed a deep seeded fear of the phenomenon that is so widely talked about in the press and other media. Here is a story about it from the Melbourne HeraldSun, the actual article and a commentary. You can make of it what you will.

However, I will say that if this condition is true for this young man, then it would be evidence that perhaps there needs to be more responsible reporting and discussion on the topic and stop the hyped up stories and just give the facts without scaring people literally out of their minds.

Melbourne Herald Sun-Doomed to a Fatal Delusion over Climate Change

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry report cited by HeraldSun

Commentary From related science blog Regarding Report

Bertha Shows Some Resilience:

Hurricane Bertha, as I noted yesterday was looking pretty good on the late satellite photo…certainly better than 24 hours earlier. I suggested that perhaps it would get a little stronger and, indeed, it has as it moved back over some warmer water. The forecast suggests that it will still have some warm water to work with but the forecasters feel that as it turns north, it will get into some more upper shear that will displace and disrupt the upper support enough that it begins to erode again. They still have it taking a more northeasterly course at the end but…there are a few models out there that I have seen that continue to suggest it moves more northwest off the Maine Coast before going inland in the coastal regions of the Canadian Maritime area. One such model does an interesting thing as it kinda pinwheels around an upper low. If this were to come true, and there is nothing in the official forecast that even suggests it, then it would produce some news headlines, I’m sure. What is not certain is what Bertha’s whereabouts will be after 72 hours though it still should largely be a problem for maritime interests.

Hurricane Bertha Midday July 7 July 7, 2008

What you see at the top above is the Sea Surface Temperature Analysis from Sunday. If you correlate the location of Bertha with the warming temperatures, you will note that intensification took place as it moved into warmer waters. The satellite image above looks very nice, though there is a flare-up of convenction north and east of the center. Otherwise, it’s become nicely concentric…which again I suspect is more from it getting into a warmer SST environment.

From this point forth, the storm will stay in an sea-surface environment of 80 degrees or greater, which is sufficient to maintain a hurricane. The general track remains true, though the official forcast track is farther east. There are several models that want to break down the ridge in fairly short order and start a turn north fairly soon. Should this happen, then it may even miss Bermuda to the east. Others want to take more time to break down the Mid-Atlantic ridge and so the westward progress would continue for a period before it encounters a trof off the US east coast. This would take the storm between Bermuda and the US mainland. The NHC is basically choosing spot in the middle. All of the models want to increase the intensity before it diminishes due to upper level shearing. However, if you note on the SST map…you see that the water temperatures also back down pretty quickly as you head toward Bermuda. I suspect this will eventually play a role in Bertha’s demise. Nevertheless, there is some question as to when the de-intensification begins. The NHC is decreasing the intensity toward the end of the time frame but not as dramatically as some models indicate…again sorta taking a middle of the road approach. At this point, Bertha is nothing more than a talking point for those who want to somehow link its unprecedented eastern development point so early in the year to global warming or for those who like to trumpet the first storm of the season….OR…if you are going to Bermuda…then it’s an issue. Otherwise, this is largely a concern for academic and maritime interests.