Rain To Change Our Fortunes; Spelling Dooms Presidential Fortunes
August 26, 2008

Here is a link to a cool set of photos in a slide show brought to our attention by Rick, a frequenter of these here pages. He sent it as a response to this post but I’m bringing it to your attention….CLICK HERE for Photos From Parker, CO Tornado

2 Day Rain Forecast Tue and Wed

2 Day Rain Forecast Tue and Wed

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the entire nation .

The track of the remnant of Fay is lifting up and perhaps a shade farther west. That is good for we in the Louisville Metro area. Now, we are on the left hand side of the storm and by far, the heaviest rain will be to our east and south. But, if you look at the 2 Day rain forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center you notice that they have nudged the rain blob farther west to perhaps an inch. That is not too far off and we are currently looking more closely at the ETA model which over the weekend advertised a blob coming over Louisville. Conversely, the GFS has no interest in rain for the next few days. Given the current position of the center of Fay and its previous track and the environmental conditions, we feel like a good shot at area wide rain, beneficial rain, is in the cards, particularly Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A front comes through late Friday that may bring some showers or t’storms, followed by a great looking Labor Day Weekend.

Shooting Holes In The Dictionary

Taking Aim at Mr. Webster

Don't Forget The "e"

On This Date In History: On this date in 1906, President Teddy Roosevelt made his final plans for his effort to be Vice-President Dan Quayle about 90 years before there was a Vice-President Dan Quayle. If you recall, on June 15, 1992 then Vice-President Dan Quayle went to an elementary school in Trenton, New Jersey. He decided to help a kid with his spelling and added an “e” to the end of the word, potato. That was effectively the end of Quayle’s political career and was no help in President Bush’s re-election bid. Well, Theodore Roosevelt got almost as much of a backlash, but managed to hold his seat in the White House.

In the early 20th Century, Philanthropist Andrew Carnegie funded an organization that crusaded for a more simplified spelling system. They advocated dismissing the “u” in behaviour and honour. To that end, they were successful, unless you live in Europe. They failed in their effort to convert “kissed” to “kist” and “though” to “tho”. There are many examples of success and failure but the point is, Teddy liked the concept. So, he ordered the public printer to change the spelling of 300 words to adhere to the code of the Simplified Spelling Board guidelines.

The response was swift, broad and wicked. One columnist wrote that “nuthing escapes Mr. Rucevelt. No subject is tu hi fr him to takl, no tu lo for him tu notis.” Congress wasn’t too certain that presidential powers extended to the spelling book and ordered the printer to pay no attention to the man with the big stick in the bully pulpit. So great was the public response, Mr. Roosevelt withdrew the order but later wrote that he glad “did the thing anyhow.”

Make sure you learn to spell properly. Dan Quayle never won another election and neither did Theodore Roosevelt.

Here is a list of all of the changes that President Roosevelt wanted to change…

WALL STREET JOURNAL-Rozevult’s List

Tropical Storm Gustav Track Unclear
August 25, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the entire nation.

for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0825

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0825

First off, you could tell that Gustav was getting itself together quite nicely last night. Consequently, the NHC made it a depression while the Hurricane Hunters

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0825 18Z

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0825 18Z

were on the way. When they got there, the found a closed eyewall with a 30 nm eye and winds of 60 mph. In the afternoon, a second plane found that conditions had not changed and the satellite imagery is not quite as impressive. However, this may just be a resting period. The immediate future of Gustav will reside mainly with the track. The official track takes it now right up the middle of Cuba, which would tend to mess it up. But it also would mean an entry into the wide open Gulf of Mexico. This is a track farther south than the previous track, which the NHC admitted was somewhat suspect. They still mention caution regarding the track. The spaghetti models seem to have a general shift to the south with several really giving it a sharp turn

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0825 18Z

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0825 18Z

west before it gets to Cuba and running it south of the island. This would be in response to a building ridge over Florida. If this happens, Florida would be protected. If it were to track south of Cuba and not get too messed up with the big mountains of the eastern end of the island, then it would have great potential to develop as it moves toward the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf. Of the 16 models depicted in the spaghetti intensity graph, 10 make it a hurricane with four approaching Cat 3 status. But, as the NHC notes, the GFS isn’t too enthused with it and the UKMET totally loses interest. So, there are a variety of scenarios. My guess is that this guy is not going away and its near term life will be determined by Fidel Castro’s lovely island. Here is the 5pm discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY…THE
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT. USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY…STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH LAND. INTERESTINGLY…THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…315/12. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO
GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST…WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE
LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST. NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS…AND ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.

THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.3N 71.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W 55 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W 50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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