Interactive National Radar Loop Source August 19, 2008

Anytime day or night that you want to look at a radar image with looping ability, the ability to navigate anywhere in the country to street level, show clouds and also even a computer generated  analysis of individual cells telling you what direction they are going and perhaps other characteristics simply CLICK HERE.

It will default to the Ohio Valley but you can take it anywhere you want from there. This can be used for Tropical Storm Fay, storms in  your hometown or storms in your gradma’s back yard across the country.  Give it a try.

Tropical Storm Fay Still A Bit Mysterious But Certainly a Rain Maker August 19, 2008

For a more recent update on Tropical Storm Fay, click here.

For a national interactive radar to navigate to street level and loop tropical storm Fay, ClICK HERE It defaults to the Ohio Valley but can be moved anywhere in the nation.

The general forecast remains in tact. The NHC is mentioning the possibility of the the storm regenerating

NHC Fay fcst track 11AM 0819

if it moves back offshore. Given the current structural integrity of the storm as it moves across Florida, which indicates to me that they feel like its a legitimate

Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0819

concern. So, folks on the SE coast from Jacksonville to Savannah to Myrtle Beach may not only get heavy, persistent rain and wind but also the potential for higher tides will be increased. They needed rain in much of the area and there will be a great benefit from this storm but in some cases it may be a case of “be careful for what you wish for.” As you can tell from the Spaghetti model there is still quite a bit of disagreement in the models. Many scenarios still remain and the future of Fay probably won’t show itself for a couple of days.

As for Invest 94L, the NHC is not completely confident in any rapid development with the system as they

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z 0819

conclude that while there is some opportunity for some organization in the short term, in the longer term the upper support becomes poor. Nonetheless, the

Invest 94 Spaghetti Intensity Graph 12Z 0819

spaghetti models continue to move the storm generally northwest to the north of Puerto Rico or around the Domincan Republic. Meanwhile the disconnect continues with the Naval Research Lab has a tropical storm moving into the Caribbean. Not sure if I understand that divergent conclusion. Anyway, 3 of the models on the Spaghetti graph take the intensity to hurricane status in the next few days, which is interesting. Nevertheless, it deserves attention over the next few days. Here is the NHC Fay 11AM Tuesday discussion.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN…AND IN FACT…RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. THEREAFTER…IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR…THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME…THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER…THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN…AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER…THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR
THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR
GEORGIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.7N 81.3W 50 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W 45 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W 40 KT…OVER WATER
36HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 45 KT…OVER WATER
48HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W 45 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Edouard Heading To Galveston? August 4, 2008

Look to latest post for most recently updated information. 

Track Edouard’s Progress with this National Interactive Radar…zoom to street level!

Edouard Track EVE 08.03Spaghetti tracks

Funny thing happened today.  The NHC issued the first report on Tropical Depression number 5. They made it a tropical storm in a day or so and took near Galveston on Tuesday. An hour later, a hurricane hunter reported a pressure drop of 5 mb and slightly increased winds.  In a very uncommon move, they immediately issued a new report and discussion that made it Tropical Storm Edouard and increased its intensity a bit by landfall.  By the 10 PM CDT report, the circulation remained but other elements decreased.  In the earlier discussion, they mentioned that the GFDL was an outlyer but made it a hurricane.  Now, in the late discussion, they mention that the storm has weakened and not continued or maintained its intensity but now there are a whole mess of models wanting to make it a hurricane. However, the NHC cautions that the prognosis of those models is based on the data from the quick increase in intensity and the models don’t know yet that the storm didn’t continue to intensify.  So, a return to the more pragmatic approach has come about. 

If you note the on the spaghetti tracks above, there are a majority of models lumped into the Galveston solution.  The official track has shifted just a shade from earler from say Freeport or Lake Jackson, TX to Galveston.  It also goes between Austin and San Antonio at a pretty good clip…perhaps over San Marcos or Wimberly.  The idea is that it will be a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane at landfall early Tuesday.  The good news is that it should maintain forward speed which means rain amounts will tend to be heavy but not catostrophic.  When it gets to the hill country though, the topography both from a lifting perspective and from a hydrology perspective may prove problematic.  Here is the 11 PM NHC discussion.  The above track is from the US Naval Research Laboratory but is based on the NHC forecast.

WTNT45 KNHC 040230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN…CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED…AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE…AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO…AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF.  THE GFDL…SHIPS…LGEM…AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL
MAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS…HOWEVER…ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND…A TREND
WHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE…BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER…BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE
COASTLINE…SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY…AND AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT…THE CHANCES
OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM
MORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0300Z 28.1N  88.5W    45 KT
12HR VT     04/1200Z 28.2N  89.7W    45 KT
24HR VT     05/0000Z 28.6N  91.9W    50 KT
36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.3N  94.1W    60 KT
48HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  96.5W    40 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     08/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Typhoon Fung-Wong Taiwan Bound; Find Dolly’s Remnant July 27, 2008

Today is on track. Tons of sun, a little less humid. Temperature will get toward 90. If you want to find the remnant of Dolly, check out the interactive radar and then move the grid to New Mexico.

Typhoon Fung-Wong: Typhoon Fung Wong is gaining stregnth and will hit Taiwan in the next day or so with winds of at least 115 mph. Wasn’t too long ago those folks got slammed by Kalmaegi. Remember, that part of the world gets more tropical cyclones per year than any other. I want to say that they average something like 21 named storms per year. I believe the North Atlantic, in comparison, averages about 10 or 11. Above is the track and sat pick and below is the text provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Text For Typhoon Fung-Wong

T’Storm Watch; Kentuckian Tony Snow Will Be Missed July 12, 2008

HERE IS AN UPDATE FROM THE SPC REGARDING WW 689 This looks like a rain event with only isolated potential for severe storms. Rainfall has been pretty heavy though in some spots.

Edit for update: The NWS has dropped all counties from the watch as of 9:45pm EDT except for Jackson, Jennings and Lawrence.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the western third of the viewing area until midnight EDT.  Storms will have plenty of potential energy to work with as they move into our area so I suspect we will be seeing some of them holding together even after the sun sets.  I”ve been talking about this all week and I still think we may see a repeat of Tuesday when the storms were strong in the western part  of the viewing area and then as they move across the rest of the viewing area, begin collapsing and producing strong winds as they do so.  The biggest risk with these storms will be high winds regardless of the time and place. Watch out for the lighting too.  Here’s the discussion that goes along with the watch.  If things get hopping, I probably won’t have time to update this so be sure to go to the weather section and check out the alerts as well as the National Interactive radar which will allow you to go anywhere in the country to street level.  Also we have out local live radar.   Here is the discussion with Watch 689.

   DISCUSSION…A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES
   OVER MUCH OF OH VALLEY.  WITH CONTINUED HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY DEVELOPING INTO CLUSTERS AND
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  WITH 25-30KT OF SHEAR…WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   PRIMARY THREAT…PARTICULARLY WHERE COLD POOLS DEVELOP AND ENHANCE
   DOWNDRAFTS.
  
   AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27025.

Tony Snow  Mr. Snow was from Kentucky and raised in Cincinnati.  I first heard of him as a radio talk show host.  I found him quite refreshing in that he made his point of view quite well and was strong about it.  He was no fence rider.  Yet, he was pleasant in his manner and never mean or condescending in his approach.  He didn’t demonize those he disagreed with and didn’t disrespect others for their opinions, no matter how far out in left field they were.  While you may not have agreed with his positions, I would hope that everyone recognizes what a loss he is for our political discourse because we’ve lost one of the good guys who was a beacon for how it could be and, in my view, should be done.  There is no need to yell and scream and call others names in the name of entertainment.  No need for bombastic commentary or vilification of the opposition.  That goes for all political persuasions.  I did not know Mr. Snow, but I am sure he is missed by his family and probably far more friends than most people could hope to have.  But I think that we as a nation may miss him and his congenial manner far more than most of us realize.  Here is a biography and obits from the NYTimes, Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times.

Tony Snow Bio

NYTimes Snow Obit

Washington Post Snow Obit

Chicago Sun Times Snow Obit

Severe Threat Today-Saturday July 12 July 12, 2008

For a National Interactive Radar that you can zoom to street level click here.

Now Compare Tuesday’s Storm Outlook

To Today’s Storm Prediction Center Outlook

I told you it was a similar situation. The area is almost identical except they’ve got it shoved closer to our area. Tell you the truth, the one that is out for today would have been right on the money had they done it for Tuesday. Anyway, the story is the same…storm chances increase as the afternoon progresses into the overnight. Here is the Link to the SPC Day One Outlook which should update throughout the day.

Rebirth of Dara Torres and Decline of Bertha July 8, 2008

For a US interactive radar that allows for you to zoom in to street level and get analysis of any storms anywhere across the country, Click Here. For Louisville weather, look to the bottom of this post.

I suspect that Bertha is heading toward the graveyard. Bertha popped up to a Cat 3 which caused a flurry of activity in the nation’s newsrooms…never mind that it wasn’t ever forecast to affect the US. It’s part of the hysteria. I even saw a couple of bloggers claim that oil prices would go up even though there are not petroleum interests in the region of the storm’s path. Such nonsense. You can see from the satellite image that I borrowed from the US Navy’s Naval Research Laboratory that the eye has disappeared, the western flank is eroding and the National Hurricane Center indicates that dry air may be getting into the eyewall. I had told you about the sea surface temperatures and the NHC says that recent weakening may be attributed not only to the shearing that they were forecasting, but also cooler water. As they say, the environment is getting hostile to Bertha. When you see an eroding like this, it’s tough for it to get back to a position of strength when there is nothing to indicate a real good environment ahead. My guess is that this guy has seen its best days.

Dara Torres and the questions. Look at what sports such as Major League Baseball and the Tour de France and track and field done. Here is a story of a woman who improbably at the age of 41 make a comeback and beat swimmers half her age. And now, the question of Dara Torres and steroids or other performance enhancers has arisen. To be fair, Mark Spitz couldn’t do it and this woman has come back from numerous surgeries, a 6 year lay off and the birth of a child to return to the top of the heep. How did she do it? We used to accept hard work…the old American ethic. And why not? George Foreman came back after years of inactivity to become the World Heavyweight Champion at an advanced age. He was celebrated and went on to sell lots of grills. But today, questions arise. This woman has not only been tested, she’s done so at her request. Baseball players had to be forced but this woman begs to prove her innocence. It’s too bad we have come to a point that potential great stories of people who overcome the odds are put under the microscope and suspicion arises for her achievement alone. Here is an article from former Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Pat Forde who now writes for ESPN:

Pat Forde Article

The story is about the same. Yes, the Slight Risk is near us but that is generally a wide expanse to compensate for any potential that storms stay going overnight. They probably won’t. The front is pokey and won’t come through here until midday or early afternoon on Wednesday. This means our best chances for rain will be Tuesday night through Wednesday midday. The front will be past us by the heating of the day. As usual though, we will monitor the situation for any hiccups.

California Wildfires In Pictures; Hoover or Boulder? July 7, 2008

Click Here for a National Interactive Radar that you can use to zoom in to street level, track and see analysis for any part of the country.

The above is the July 6th version of the severe outlook for Tuesday July 8.

Our weather looks pretty good to start the week. An upper disturbance will wander through the flow across the lower Great Lakes and an appendage of instability may be far enough southto work with afternoon heating to kick off a few Monday afternoon isolated t’storms. If they do go, they’ll most likely be confined to the northern half of the viewing area. Tuesday night a front will slowly plod our way and rain chances will go up accordingly. Note the severe threat is well to our northwest where the boundary will be moving during the heat of the day. There may be some late day renegade t’storms but primarily the threat will be for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We should see improvement by Wednesday afternoon that will translate to a good Thursday. The front comes back as a warm front Friday morning marking the return of heat and humidity for much of the weekend. Another front comes down for late Sunday…or so it seems right now.

California Wild Fires: The map to the left is for Tuesday afternoon and evening. In our area you see rain moving with a cold front that doesn’t have great prospects for severe weather but will have the potential to bring some decent rain. Out west though, you see the way the contour lines are oriented is for a general offshore flow, which means dry and hot air coming down out of the mountains. Not really a Santa Anna wind which typically comes from the southwest but the end result is the same. No real help in the near term.

Here is a slide show from KTAR which is in the Phoenix area. I suppose since that region has numerous links to California that they decided to enhance their coverage. I’m not sure how long this link will be good, but I would think that it would be good for the near term. It has well over 100 shots.

California Wildfires Slide Show KTAR

Here is a slideshow from the NYTimes. Not as many shots but they have an artistic edge to them.

NYTimes California Wildfire Slide Show

Here are some more from the Big Sur Fire.

NYTimes Big Sur Wildfire Slide Show

On This Date In History: This is a tale filled with politics so it’s confusing. Back in 1902, Arthur Powell Davis, an engineer with the Bureau of Reclamation, came up with an idea for a dam along the Colorado River at a place called Boulder Canyon. Herbert Hoover, an engineer by education himself, was Secretary of Commerce in 1921 and he made it a priority to support a high dam at Boulder Canyon. Plans were set for the project to be begun in 1922. Well, there was Congress to contend with and water rights and states rights…lots of politicians. So the project didn’t get started until This Date in 1930. By that time, coincidentally, Herbert Hoover was the 31st President. It was also the beginning of the Great Depression and Hoover wanted to be re-elected. While work started on July 7, the official ceremony commemorating the beginning wasn’t until September when Hoover’s Secretary of the Interior, Ray Wilbur, declared the project would be known as the Hoover Dam. It was appropriate since Hoover had been instrumental over the years in getting the project going. But, Hoover also wanted the project to bear his name to remind people of all the jobs he had created. It didn’t work. Hoover lost badly to Franklin D. Roosevelt.

As the project was getting started, it was determined that geologically it was better suited down the river in Black Canyon. Nevertheless, it was still called the Boulder Canyon Project and on May 8, 1933, Secretary of the Interior Harold Ickes(father of the current Democrat politician with the same name) declared that the name of the project would no longer be known as Hoover Dam, but instead Boulder Dam. FDR had been in office for a few months and erasing any mention of Hoover perhaps was high on the priority list of helping the US to be fearless against “fear itself.” This of course even though the dam was being built in Black Canyon. In 1947, President Harry Truman signed a resolution of the Congress changing the name back to Hoover Dam….but the town built for all of the workers is still Boulder City. When I was a kid we stayed in a motel in Boulder City that looked like it was from the set of National Lampoon’s Vacation. Christie Brinkley didn’t show up though.

Here’s a link to all sorts of stuff about Hoover Dam including a bunch of photos from the 1930′s. Notice that it is called the Boulder Dam Project..AKA Hoover Dam. There are some things of which some people will not let go, Congressional resolution and Presidential signature or not!

3rd and 4th Outlook July 3, 2008

Locate and Track Storms Anywhere in the Country with a National Interactive Radar…Click Here.

All on schedule as for next couple of days. Clouds for today with crummy lapse rates will inhibit chances for anything worthwhile with the front. For the Fourth, there remains the chance that any rain that we get may break for fireworks. At this point, it looks like we will see some improvement on Saturday. Previously, there had been indications that a wave along a stalled boundary moved through late Friday and early Saturday and moved off by Saturday afternoon. The GFS on a couple of occasions had tried to keep a wave over us all day on Saturday and Sunday. As it stands, there is a consensus that after a late night/early morning wave of rain Friday night, the front slides farther south. So, rain potential may be highest while I’m at the Jeffersonville Fourth of July Parade on Friday morning through midday and then again after fireworks. The rest of the weekend should work out well from Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Here’s what the SPC has to say about Friday into early Saturday.

…TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES… ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK FRONT…WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. SOME WARMING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ALONG FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES…AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THOUGH WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT 20-30 KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS…WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

Midday Severe Threat Analysis June 28, 2008

To get to an interactive radar for the entire US that allows you to zoom in and track storms down to street level all across the United States, Click Here

Here is the midday update for the Severe Threat Saturday. On the one hand I’m not surprised on the other I am a bit. I had thought all along that to the northeast might be the best risk. But, as I mentioned early early Saturday morning I had seen that one model had a concentration to our southwest and I spy an MCS traveling exactly that direction. The SPC mentions the unidirectional nature of the winds and I saw that with great continuity on all models from 850 up, mainly from the west. But there was a slight bit of veering from the surface, say from 230 to 280 degrees. We are re-loading with temperatures well into the mid 80′s and I have pondered all week whether or not we even get to 90. That’s not totally out of the question. My gut feeling from last night still holds. I think it’s a fair bet that we will have something akin to a repeat of last night with a number of strong storms with several severe t-storm warnings this afternoon and this evening. Tornado threat is minimal but we did have several twister reports to our west yesterday and even one warning for Orange County. That type of small, short lived activity would not be totally out of the question, most likely with an errant cell merger or bow echo.

I bet a watch is issued from our region to the northeast. There was some discontinuity with the models with the exact progged location, but as jet streak is progged to nose down into our region with some models putting us on the right rear quadrant of the jet, which is a favored area. Others had it slightly north and swinging northeast.

Here is the SPC discussion for our region:

SYNOPSIS… IMPRESSIVE LATE JUNE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND MAX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF DECAYING CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER A VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDED FROM LOWER MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEY TO E OF APPALACHIANS FROM NY TO VA. …MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY… THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK MUCH OF OH VALLEY THIS AM IS VERY MOIST AND ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT THERE IS ONLY MINIMAL CINH. WITH 30-40KT WSWLY 850MB FLOW AND THE RAPID APPROACH OF THE IMPRESSIVE 80KT 500 MB WIND MAX FROM MID MS VALLEY…THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF FAST MOVING LINEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F…BY EARLY AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AOA 2500 J/KG. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT WELL DEFINED DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THE CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAKEST FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN IND. STORMS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG JET DRIVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY INTO NRN OH BY 00Z…AND THE CONTINUED 30-40KT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW…FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINER MODE. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.

Here are the pops for our area and the HPC rainfall prediction. Note the bullit point for rain to the southwest which I suspect is a reflection of the track of the current MCS that I mentioned to our southwest.