Financial Meltdown Finger Pointing? Laura is Dead? President Wilson Lives through Edith? October 2, 2008

Cooldown Won’t LastThe weather here is on track. Wednesday morning found temperatures fairly uniform in the upper 40′s. The airport was 48. Look for lows Thursday morning in the mid 40′s and perhaps on Friday morning too. We climb back to the mid 70′s on Friday and Saturday with upper 70′s to near 80 on Sunday following the passage of a warm front Saturday night. Early next week we get back to the low to maybe the mid 80′s.

Tropical Storm Laura Spaghetti Model 1001 12Z

Tropical Storm Laura Satellite 1002 0145Z

Tropical Storm Laura Epitaph: Tropical Storm Laura is gone. From the report at the bottom of the page, you can read about its demise. If you look at the satellite image from early Thursday morning, you can see what the discussion is talking about. Its tough to find Laura. Its generally in the center of the photo with a little swirl apparent with no convection. But the Spaghetti model still takes whats left of it to the British Isles and some eventually take it to Germany. The discussion mentions that some models want to re-intensify it. While it may be an academic issue of interest, otherwise its a European question.

The Blame Game!

So Who Got Us in this Mess? While the Congress tries again to solve the financial problems and questions, inevitably we will be bombarded with who is to blame. Here is an interesting video that may shed some light, but keep in mind, while it’s 8 minutes long it has been edited. The first part is Rep. Richard Baker from 2006 and the rest is from a Congressional hearing from 2004. I won’t editorialize…you see if it provides some insight.

Video of Who Aided the Demise of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?

The Senate Votes: The Senate on Wednesday night passed a bill concerning the current financial situation. It is interesting though, because according the Article One, Section 7 of the Constitution, only the House of Representatives must originate bills for raising revenue and House precedent has established that this means “raising revenue and appropriating the same.” But, the Senate apparently does not agree yet, normally, if the Senate tries to originate such legislation, when its sent to the House, the House routinely returns it to the Senate with a “blue slip” which indicates that the House rejects the bill on procedural terms without ever considering it. Now, since the House first originated this bill and the vote failed, the Senate will claim that the House originated it and now they will vote on it with amendments that will define what in many regards will be a new bill, even though the House never passed the original. I don’t think that’s what the founders intended. I doubt if the House will “blue slip” this one though. So, even if it is unconstitutional, it will probably get voted on in the House anyway. It wouldn’t be the first time that the government has violated the Constitution. President Jefferson violated the Constitution several times and no one seemed to mind. Its funny when the public decides the Constitution is important and when it is not. Anyway, here is part of Article One, Section 7.

Section 7: All bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with amendments as on other Bills.

Every bill which shall have passed the House of Representatives and the Senate, before it become a law and be presented to the President of the United States; if he approves, he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it, with his objections to that House in which it shall have originated, who shall enter the objections at large on their journal, and proceed to reconsider it. If after such reconsideration two thirds of that House shall agree to pass the bill, it shall be sent, together with the objections, to the other House, by which it shall likewise be reconsidered, and if approved by two thirds of that House, it shall become a law. But in all such cases the votes of both Houses shall be determined by yeas and nays, and the names of the persons voting for and against the bill shall be entered on the journal of each House respectively. If any bill shall not be returned by the President within ten days (Sundays excepted) after it shall have been presented to him, the same shall be a law, in like manner as if he had signed it, unless the Congress by their adjournment prevent its return, in which case it shall not be a law.

On This Date In History: On October 2, 1919 President Woodrow Wilson was giving a speech in Pueblo Colorado when he suffered a massive stroke. Daily reports came assuring the public that the President was recovering nicely. Truth was, he was partially paralyzed and nearly blind. But, his wife Edith refused anyone access to the President. Cabinet members, trusted aides, Congressmen and even the Vice-President. She claimed she had no role in decisions but did determine what was important and when to present it to the President. That sounds like a role to me. When Woodrow Wilson was scheduled to address Congress, instead a message was sent to the legislative body made up of snippets from Cabinet reports with corrections penciled in by Edith. Many referred to it as a “Petticoat Government.”

Edith Wilson was a rather odd match for Woodrow Wilson, who was a PhD who had been the President of Princeton and Governor of New Jersey. She married Wilson in 1915 after his first wife Ellen died. In contrast to the bookish Wilson, Edith had little formal education, in 20 years of living in Washington had never visited the White House and could not recall whom she voted for in the 1912 election….an election that her husband won. But, she became politically quite adept and came to rule the roost in the White House. 44 years after standing by her husband at his second inaugural, she attended the inauguration of President Kennedy. When she died a year later, the New York Times said that “some went so far as to characterize her as the first woman President of the United States.” To this day, there are many historians who agree with that assessment.

If you ever think that a presidential candidate’s wife doesn’t matter, remember Edith Wilson.

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TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL122008 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS…THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FOR LAURA TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE…AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. I RATHER LIKE THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER’S TERM POST-TROPICAL…WHICH SIMPLY MEANS NO LONGER TROPICAL…TO DESCRIBE WHAT LAURA HAS BECOME. THERE IS NOT REALLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE YET TO CONSIDER LAURA EXTRATROPICAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE…AND SOME USERS MIGHT INFER A WEAK SYSTEM IF WE USED THE TERM REMNANT LOW…WHICH IS MOST-COMMONLY APPLIED TO DECAYING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 KT…PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER. A TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF LAURA IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE…HOWEVER… SHOWS THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS…BUT FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN CARRYING A TRACK ONLY OUT TO 72 HOURS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 46.5N 46.5W 40 KT…POST-TROPICAL

12HR VT 02/0000Z 48.9N 45.6W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 02/1200Z 52.2N 43.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 03/0000Z 55.0N 39.8W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 03/1200Z 56.0N 33.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 04/1200Z 56.5N 20.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 05/1200Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Financial Scandal Rocks Congress; Tropical Storm Laura in Ireland? October 1, 2008

Tropical Storm Laura a Wild Irish Rose?

Louisville weather: The front came through Monday night and brought a little more rain than anticipated. Instead of a quarter inch being an exception it was more of the rule with isolated instances of up to a half inch. Good, we needed it. A vort lobe rotating around the low will bring some clouds on Wednesday and hold down the temperatures to the low to mid 60′s. Maybe a couple of insignificant brief light showers but thats about it. We stay cool through Friday morning. Still won’t be surprised to see outlying areas around 40. But we warm up heading into the weekend and Saturday night a warm front comes through with increasing clouds and perhaps some shower activity. But that feature will not spoil weekend afternoon activities. In short, the cool down won’t last too long as we continue to warm up heading into early next week.

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Track 0930 5pm

Tropical Storm Laura: Tropical Storm Laura was a “subtropical storm” for awhile but then the boys that the NHC discovered that its structure was looking very tropical like and the temperatures aloft in the center were not all that cold so, even though its way north, they decided to make it a tropical storm. I see a broad central core on the satellite but also a lot of stuff that looks more like a cold-core low. This guy is not going to be tropical for long. Remember how Bertha went to Iceland and, more recently, Kyle went to New Brunswick and Quebec? Well, Laura is heading to Ireland! It should go back to subtropical status or more likely become a extratropical storm pretty quickly but it will still lash the green island with about 50 or 60 mph winds, rough seas and heavy rain. As I’ve said before, this is not a sign of global warming. Its a sign of nature doing its thing. The role of tropical cyclones is to transport heat and moisture from tropical regions to higher latitudes and these storms are performing beautifully. Don’t be fooled by reports that are sure to come that will erroneously point to global warming as the culprit. There may be other evidence that support global warming, but these storms (as well as Katrina) ain’t it. The National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion is at the bottom of the post.

They Did The Work But Who Made the Money?

On This Date In History: Financial problems are all in the news these days, but it’s nothing new. In recent years there was Enron but back in the 19th Century, there was the Credit Mobilier Construction Company. This is a pretty complex story but we’ll try to shorten it to the principal. (here’s a link to the details)

The US Government was keenly interested in building a transcontinental railroad. But, investors were not too enthused because the risks were enormous and investors don’t like a lot of risk. Two companies were formed to operate the railroads, the Central Pacific and the Union Pacific. The owners of the railroads both determined that the more likely road to profits were in construction rather than the actual operation. To ensure that they would make money, the two companies came up with a scheme in which they formed their own construction companies, which in turn charged the railroads to lay the track. That way, the railroads could get money from the government through subsidies and other incentives and then get paid again from the railroad. On top of that, they overcharged the railroads for the construction. On top of that, they bribed members of Congress with shares of stock and money. On this date in 1867, the contract between the Mobilier Contruction Company and the Union Pacific Railroad was completed which ended up paying $94 million for 1038 miles of track that probably should have cost about $50 million. Who got left holding the bag? The American taxpayer.

In the ensuing investigation brought to light by the New York Sun in an effort to unseat President US Grant, it was found that the owners of Credit Mobilier owned 367,000 shares of Union Pacific that had cost them virtually nothing. So, Congress investigated and couldn’t find much since there were dummies created to shield the identity of individuals and deals were done in such convoluted and secretive ways the investigators were flummoxed. Future president James A Garfield, House Speaker Schuyler Colfax and Massachusetts Congressman Oakes Ames were implicated. Ames received a censure from the Congress but, the government sued the Union Pacific for damages and the US Supreme Court ruled in 1878 that “more unmitigated frauds were never perpetrated on a helpless corporation by its managing directors.” Nevertheless, the court also ruled that since the government had received “all the advantages for which it has bargained” (I suppose the railroad got built) then there were no damages and therefore was not entitled to a thing.

So, there you have it….I’ve reported to you before about a financial panic with collapsing banks and a rescue plan in 1907…and now I’ve reported to you about how taxpayers got jobbed when the government got involved in private business enterprise. Politicians and tv foofs like to toss around the “great depression” at the drop of a hat and it concerns people, as it should. But, before you get too worked up about the current situation, be comforted that these things have happened before and it didn’t result in depression or huge long term disaster.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL122008 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 A 1653 UTC

CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE CONFIRMS THAT LAURA STILL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT. IN ADDITION…THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM’S CENTRAL FEATURES HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING SO THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH LAURA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE…VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME THERMAL ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR STRATUS CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT… AND LAURA COULD BE FULLY NON-TROPICAL IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 21C AND IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCE…SO SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER…BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES…AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. LAURA IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT 010/12. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…BUT AFTER THAT LAURA IS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A 120-HOUR POSITION IS NOT GIVEN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE IT WOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN OVER THE NORTH SEA…AND THE LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN ANYWAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 42.3N 48.6W 50 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 45 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 01/1800Z 46.8N 46.8W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 02/0600Z 50.0N 45.1W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 02/1800Z 53.1N 42.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 03/1800Z 56.5N 31.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 04/1800Z 57.0N 17.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 05/1800Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH