The Morning After Ike September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 1345Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite 1345 0913

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0913 1345Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike with damage photos and video CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it moves through Texas, CLICK HERE. Navigate from the Ohio Valley default and go to street level anywhere in the nation. Add clouds and/or lightning and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0913

Really, not much to say. Ike is inland and moving quickly toward North Texas. So far, Ike was difficult and dangerous and caused great problems in the Golden Triangle of SE Texas and also SW Louisiana. It caused damage in Galveston and Houston. World Famous Brennans in Houston burned to the ground. But, it would appear that the turn north just prior to landfall limited the storm surge damage as the greatest surge was in much less populated areas of the coast except for Port Arthur.

Now, the national problem aside from the insurance buisness, which before sunrise was predicting claims second only to Katrina (how they know that before they can

3 Day Rainfall Forecast 12Z Sat thru 12Z Tue

see I don’t know), will be the petroleum and chemical supply. Power outages in the

Texas Natural Gas Pipelines

area could last for a very long time. That could affect the start up of refineries. Storm surges may have affected some refineries. 23% of the refining capacity of the US is on the Houston Ship Channel and it seems to have done its job as it stretches inland 44 miles and helps protect interests along the waterway and in the Port of Houston. Nevertheless, there may be damage. There are many other refineries and

Severe Storm Outlook 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun

chemical plants from west of Galveston through Port Arthur to Lake Charles that could be damaged or also disrupted. I’m sure you know in your town right now, gasoline prices have risen. In some areas there may be shortages as, the distribution network is disrupted. Not only are the refineries in SE Texas, but also the greatest grid of natural gas pipe line in the nation. Louisiana and Texas have natural gas all over the place and Texas has over 43,000 miles of pipeline. Those pipes were shut down. Until they are restarted and transmitting natural gas, there may be shortages and higher prices. The price rise will probably be difficult for a month.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR…SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. HOWEVER…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY… ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER…THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE’S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…UNFORTUNATELY…ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS…WESTERN LOUISIANA…AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT…AS WILL CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 31.0N 95.3W 70 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W 45 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

Texas is Under Assault Before Hurricane Ike Even Gets Ashore September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR image 0245Z

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0912 11PM

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate away from the default in the Ohio Valley and go anywhere in the nation down to street level. Hit “animate” to loop. Add clouds and lightning if you like.

There’s not much to add. Hurricane Ike is not yet ashore. I was afraid yesterday that it would get its act together prior to landfall and it looked like most of the day it was going to run out of time. And in general it has, but late tonight it suddenly got better looking and the winds were increased to 110 mph. It’s not that significant except that it appears that we have a hurricane on an uptick and not a weakening storm as it makes landfall. It is basically a wait and

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 0245Z

see position. There was a rapid water rise ahead of the storm and the levels appear to have leveled a bit for the time being. Some of the gauges show a drop which indicates to me that they are in a strong northerly flow. But, the big surge has yet to come. In areas where the wind shifts out of the South and Southeast, that is when the big push should come. From the radar, it appears to me that the broad center will pass over Galveston Bay and points to the

Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Probability 0912 11PM

east…slightly adjusted to the east and then traverse NNW toward downtown Houston. If I’m right, the west side of Houston would get lesser winds, but still damaging and from downtown east the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0913 00Z

strongest winds. Storm surges could be very difficult up the Ship Channel and into Texas City. Storm surges will not max out for several hours. Surges are probability of 5 feet or higher are projected at 90% or greater all the way up the Houston Ship Channel and into the tributaries well inland like the San Jacinto River and Buffalo Bayou. Friends have reported Buffalo Bayou about 50 miles inland has risen some 4-6 feet already. I have been told by several sources that gas prices in Houston were about

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field 0912 11pm

$3.30 a gallon. Here in Louisville many locations jacked up their prices well over $4.00 a gallon. Radio reports showed prices over $4.60 a gallon. Go figure. But the Houston Ship Channel is home to 23% of the nation’s refining capacity. Storm surges so far have actually been highest near Port Arthur and Sabine Pass at the TX/LA border where numerous other refineries exist. Most of the plants have shut down. It is unclear when they will be returning to operation. Many of the buoys have lost their moorings and are adrift. An offshore rig had reported 91 knot winds off of Galveston at 1 pm and stopped giving new data after that. Fires are reported in Galveston and no one can put them out.

I lost count of the number of tornado warnings out of Lake Charles and New Orleans at 30 and they keep adding on. Tornadoes will continue to be an issue. Louisville we will deal with that issue tomorrow and the likelihood of that sort of thing here on Sunday. Conventional wisdom suggests that we will get heavy rain and a severe threat but its not entirely clear just how great those threats are at this time. Inland flooding will be an issue in the plains as they have already been hit with heavy, flooding rains on a frontal boundary and the remnant of a tropical cyclone from the Pacific. Tropical storm warnings reach all the way to Oklahoma.

The storm has not made landfall. Surges have not reached their maximum in many areas. Much of Galveston is submerged. One thing to think about….

Houston has no zoning laws to speak of. Snow White noticed that there were about 5 clusters of building in Houston that are bigger than Louisville’s downtown. I used to work in a 65 story building that is about 5 miles from downtown. That and a large number of other buildings in downtown mainly have a glass outer surface. Hurricane Alicia blew out the majority of windows in downtown leaving up to 1.5 feet of glass in the streets. Surface winds are reported at 110mph. The winds off the deck will be much stronger. The NWS estimates 130 mph or higher. The winds whipping between building will be enhanced by the canyon effect, or Bernoulli effect or the vortex effect..whatever you want to call it. Now, the surface winds will decrease but is it is very likely that an enormous number of windows in high rise buildings will be damaged greatly. The tallest building in Houston is 80 stories. Others are close. Also…this is not the worse case scenario…believe it or not, it could be worse…but it will be very troublesome and costly. I hope that the folks who stayed on Galveston or even in Clear Lake or Texas City have not made a grave mistake. My guess is that the loss of life, and there will be some, will have been something that could have been avoided had the people heeded warnings. Basically, this is a cat 2 storm with a cat 5 storm surge potential. The water rising well before the storm really is similar to the reports in 1900. Very interesting and potentially dangerous. Can you image what Galveston would be like right now without the seawall? That’s a big difference between now and then.

Here is a roundup from the gauges at various locations regarding surge levels as of 0200Z (9pm CDT)

Galveston Bay Entrance <10 feet

Galveston Pleasure Pier fell to 7 ft at 00Z; rose back to <10Feet

Clear Lake 7 feet

Battleship Texas fell from <7 feet@22Z to 6 feet

Eagle Point <9 feet

Morgan’s Point fell from 6.5 feet@00Z to 6 feet

Port Arthur 7 feet

Sabine Pass > 10 feet

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS…NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT…AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 114 KT…AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED FROM 103-105 KT…AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 95 KT. THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL…IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS…AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS…IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT…HOWEVER…IS THE EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH…115 KT OR 130 MPH …EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION…THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.6N 94.4W 95 KT

12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W 70 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W 35 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

72HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG

Hurricane Ike Continues To Produce Remarkable Surge September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 1915Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate to street level, add clouds and lightning(though there probably won’t be much of that) and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Rainbow IR Satellite Image 1945Z 0912

Hurricane Ike does not have a well formed center…it is very large….60 miles wide.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0912 5PM

It doesnt have a true eyewall but is just huge. That means a couple of things. It shouldn’t get much stronger than what it is. But, it also means that the windfield remains huge with hurricane force winds extending 120 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 275 miles outward. In the report below, they report parts of Galveston have seen a 9 foot rise in the tides and the storm is still at least 12 hours away. I think the broadness of the circulation also means that the storm surge not only will be very high to the east of landfall and not only extend way to the east as far as significant storm surge, even west

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 18Z

of the storm should see a pretty good rise. The water is getting pushed ahead like a big ship and the wake

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 1945Z 0912

ahead has no where to go but up the coast. These water rise reports, well ahead of the storm are eerily similar to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Galveston Island is now cut off from the mainland and will probably continue to be inaccessible until Saturday afternoon.

The mission to rescue a freighter 90 miles south of Galveston has been aborted.

A Shell Oil Company rig located at 27.55 N and 92.49 west at 3:15 CDT reported

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 18Z

sustained winds at 91 kts. However, its been reporting the same wind speed and identical data for several hours and I suspect it has been damaged.

Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Probability 0912 5PM

It is a very good thing that Ike is not more intense but the broadness of the windfield poses quite a problem. If you look at the storm surge probability map, you notice that the 70% probability of a surge of greater than 5 feet extends all the way up the Houston Ship Channel….44 miles…then up Buffalo Bayou into west Houston and up the San Jacinto River into East Houston. Both of those locations are well inland and the 30% probability extends well off those waterways.

Power outages will be enormous and long lasting. Damage in Houston should

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field 0912 5PM

probably be similar to Alicia in 1983. There is the real chance that Galveston Island may be completely covered by the Gulf of Mexico. The east side of Galveston Bay will be highly susceptible to a very large water rise. High Island will prove not to be too high and surges into the Port Arthur region will be significant. Earlier today, Lake Charles….all the way up to I-10 had a water rise of over 3 feet and that was this morning. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect all the way to north of Dallas to the Red River. I have no idea why the spaghetti model intensity graph has so many models increasing the winds after landfall.

I’ve heard on the news that up to 50% of Galveston did not evacuate. That may prove to be a grave mistake. If Galveston has the worse case scenario, then the loss of life may be much higher than it should have been. This storm surge will be greater than a typical Cat 2.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER…THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS…AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND…IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION…THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT

12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT

24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Ike Not Intense But Has Serious Muscle September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 1415Z 0912

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Image 1415Z 0912

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate the map to wherever you like all the way to street level. Add clouds and lightning. Hit “animate” to loop.

Louisville: Be prepared for a risk of heavy rain and severe weather on Sunday.

Hurricane Ike to me is a rather interesting storm and continues to be a very odd

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0912

character. On the water vapor image, I see quite a bit of dry air. The circulation that was looking rather symmetrical is no longer a nice circle. The outflow to the west is pretty decent. The pressure from the last hurricane hunter that I saw was 956 mb which is pretty formidable but it has not dropped. This will not be the “big one” but it will be quite a more substantial storm than the intensity might otherwise suggest. The problem with this storm is its physically large structure. The windfield is huge. Hurricane force winds extend 120 miles out and Tropical Storm force winds 270 miles. So, the intensity isn’t huge and may top out around 115 mph. But the potential for damaging winds will be perhaps broader than normally expected from a cat 2/cat

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 1415Z 0912

3 storm. Because the wind field has been so large, a broad area of the ocean is

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 12Z

really whipped up. So, as the storm approaches the coast, the water will have no where to go but up. There is such a strong on-shore flow so far to the east, that the water cannot escape to the sides. So, the storm surge will be much higher than normally expected. Further, the wave action is greatly enhanced. I’ve told you about the seas offshore running about 30 feet. It would not surprise me to see wave heights of 40 feet closer to the coast as it gets closer to shore. The storm is still probably 18 hours from landfall yet, many parts of Galveston and points to the west are flooded. There are many people in Galveston who have not evacuated and that may be a grave mistake. The key continues to be the turn.

I’ve been suggesting all along that if the storm slows and/or the ridge steering it breaks down a shade, then

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 12Z

the storm will turn sooner and miss Galveston to the east. That is still plausible. The storm has slowed a bit. All this guy has to do is move 25 miles east of the current track and the situation on the Houston Ship Channel will be much improved. The current track still calls for a landfall near San Luis pass or the west end of Galveston Island. This would produce a surge up to 20 feet on Galveston, Galveston Bay and the Ship Channel. The spaghetti model is concentrated near the current track on the west side of Galveston. The ECMWF has it SSE of Galveston and turning NNW just to the east of Galveston.

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field 0912 11AM

The seawall in Galveston is 15 feet. The island is cut off at 6 feet. This morning, the winds in Galveston are offshore at just 20-30 mph but the water is crashing over the seawall. In Lake Charles, the water is rising rapidly and they too have a offshore or Northeast wind. I have an observer at Fourchon, LA…south of New Orleans. He reported a 4 foot tide early this morning and the winds were not even coming from the direction that would support his highest tide yet. He said overnight they had a 55 mph gust. What is so ominous to me is that the reports of offshore winds yet rising tides is very reminiscent of the reports from Isaac Cline as the Galveston 1900 hurricane approached. A freighter is disabled in the Gulf and the Coast Guard can’t get to it. In some regard, the actual track makes little difference, particularly for those inland. Also, seas will be quite high and water rises will be extensive, higher than one would normally expect from a storm of this intensity. On the other hand, the track will make a huge difference regarding maximum storm surge because a strike where it is forecast would mean the maximum surge will be in the most concentrated area of oil refineries in the nation. A strike 25 miles east of the forecast will give that region an offshore flow and the surge will be greatly reduced. When you consider that the earth is 25000 miles around and we’re talking about 25 miles, then its such a tiny margin that its impossible to pin point. Either way, the water rise will be extensive all the way to Beaumont and perhaps Cameron, LA.

Rainfall total Forecast 12Z 0912 to 12Z 0915

If I were FEMA, I would not comfortable with so many people remaining on Galveston. Houston will get damage similar to Alicia which was fairly substantial. The affects of this storm will felt over a large area and will have the potential to be quite extensive. As bad as it is, it’s a good thing that Ike has not ramped up.

Parts of the southern plains have gotten 4-7 inches of rain in the last day or so. Ike will bring a real flood threat to the plains and perhaps the Ohio Valley. Fortunately, it should be zipping along by then as it moves along a frontal zone.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM…122 METERS…400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONCE INLAND…IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT

12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT

24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT

36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 15/1200Z…ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Ike Still A Bully September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR image 0145Z 0912

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0145Z 0912

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Just navigate from the Ohio Valley default region and go anywhere you like down to street level. You can add clouds and lightning. The storm will continue to show itself more fully as it gets closer to radar installations along the coast.

So far, Hurricane Ike is giving mixed reviews as to its intensions. It’s a bully but

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0911 11PM

not yet a champion. The official track has shifted a bit more, it seems to me, up the coast. What had been Freeport became San Luis Pass and now looks to be the west end of Galveston Island. The Spaghetti models seem to be converged in the same area but is also shifted. There are some models that go for a landfall east of Galveston. I stand by what I have said before and that is it is plausible for this storm to be make landfall east of Galveston Bay. It’s the turn that counts and the NHC has now come around to

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 00Z

calling for a turn Northwest from West-Northwest before landfall. The 18Z GFS is a shade south of the forecast track and the 12Z ECMWF is just east.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 00Z

There’s really nothing more to report. It’s a wait and see. I do still see some dry air in the water vapor imagery. Not much, but some. The spaghetti models are coming in line for something between 80 and 95 kts. The pressure on the last Hurricane hunter flight I saw was 954 mb. The flight level wind on that run was maxed out at 101 kts which is the highest I’ve seen in quite some time, certainly the highest of the day. Using a typical conversion method, one would consider that a 90 kt surface wind.

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field and Warnings

I still say that a landfall east of Galveston by is plausible. That would be great news…not for people in Beaumont or High Island or even Cameron, but for Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. Now it would not be a picnic in areas west of landfall, just the threat of catastrophic conditions will be reduced. This is a weird storm in that a forecast of a storm of is not a huge significance aside from the specifics mentioned because the maximum winds are not that high but extend 85 miles from the center. Winds of 75 mph or better extend 115 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds are 265miles from the center. Its not concentrated but it has a whole mess of energy over a very large area. This also will make the threat of tough tide rises over a large area. Earlier today hwy 98 in Ft. Walton was taken over by the Gulf and its no where close to the track. Seas offshore I’ve seen at about 35 feet and just a few miles offshore at South Timbalier 52 at 6pm they were 18 feet. I suspect some waves in the shallower Texas coastal area may be even higher than the 35 feet in the open Gulf.

Ike seems to trying to reorganize but may run out of time. The NHC is not as aggressive in its wording regarding the potential for Cat 3 status but its still possible as I suspect it will be trying to get more concentrated toward landfall.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH…SIZE…AND STRUCTURE THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL…BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE. INSTEAD…DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE…NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. SFMR RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS…PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING…AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD…SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST. IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE COASTLINE…BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE…HOWEVER…IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION…AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE THE LAST CYCLE…AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK…WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE…AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.3N 90.4W 85 KT

12HR VT12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 90 KT

24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W 95 KT

36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W 65 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W 35 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER KNABB

Hurricane Ike Is One Big Odd Dangerous Storm September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 2215Z 0911

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Image 2245Z 0911

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. You can navigate anywhere in the nation to street level. As more of Ike comes in range of the coastal radars, you can track the storms movement. Add clouds or lightning if you like. Click “animate” to loop the image.

Hurricane Ike is a strange bird. It had a very small inner eyewall and the pressure

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 5pm 0911

was running about 945 mb yet the surface winds did not correspond to the pressure. That pressure can easily support 130-140 mph winds. Yet, it never got there. Instead the energy, which is massive, is not concentrated in the middle but instead it has been spread over a large area. Now, the inner core fell apart and the pressure rose to 954 mb before falling again to 950 mb. Still 950 mb can support higher than the current winds. As I stated in the previous post, the pressure gradient must not be a great as normally found in such a tropical cyclone. The NHC refers to a ridge over Texas with sinking air around it that may be inhibiting the storm.

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0911 2245Z

The western side of the storm has been a bit devoid but the latest satellite image

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0911 18Z

indicates to me that its slightly more symmetric and the outflow slightly better. What the NHC does not mention is that the water vapor imagery looks to me to have just a slight bit of dry air inside it. While the spaghetti intensity graph has indicated most models backing off, I wonder how much of that is due to initialization data. It would not surprise me to see this guy spike prior to landfall. The discussion seems to have a hidden bit of a tone that suggests that perhaps the storm is going through some reorganization.

As for the intensity. It’s a case of choosing your poison. On the one hand, you

Hurricane Ike Wind Field and Warnings 0911 5pm

may not have as concentrated winds and therefore not a concentrated area of risk for catastrophic wind damage nor of an area of catastrophic storm surge. On the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0911 18Z

other hand, because the energy is so spread out, you have a very broad area at risk for damaging winds of hurricane force. While there may not be an area of an extreme storm surge, there will be a very broad area of very high to high storm surges. This storm will adversely affect a lot of people because of its shear size. I had said before it hit Cuba that this guy would be a physically large hurricane in the Gulf, but this is even a little more than I bargained for. Nevertheless, again, it would not surprise me if this guy gets pretty strong before landfall.

The track has its share of variables. On the one hand, the size of the storm and

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0911 5PM

wind field makes the point of landfall less critical. On the other hand, because you are talking about a population of over 5.5 million people in the Houston/Galveston area and a concentration of 23% of the nation’s refining capacity just along the Houston Ship Channel, not counting other signficant installations between Houston and Lake Charles and then south of Houston, the landfall makes a big difference. The official track has been shoved a bit farther east..again. I think its safe to say I won the bet with my colleague. Several days ago when the models were pointing at Brownsville, he took Brownsville and 200 miles north. I kept my 100 miles either side of Houston and I still believe that fits…in other words, there is a plausible potential that the storm makes landfall east of Houston/Galveston. it will depend on how it turns around the ridge. Ridge breaks down sooner or the storm goes slower, it goes east. If the storm moves faster or the ridge doesn’t break down so fast, then it goes farther west. The forecast track is the absolute worst for the people of Galveston. As for gasoline prices, its also the worst possible spot for any hurricane any where in the nation. This track would produce the maximum storm surge and highest winds in Galveston Bay as the landfall is near San Luis Pass or Surfside. Should the storm make landfall 40 miles east, suddenly you have an offshore flow and no real storm surge to speak of and the strongest winds are to the east of the Houston Ship Channel, Galveston and Houston as a whole.

3 Day Rainfall Forecast Thu Night(911) Through Sunday Night(914)

Anyway you slice it, this is a potential problem on many many levels. The wind field is broad and the map shows the broad field of hurricane force winds as well as the hurricane warnings, which is a huge expanse of the United States coastline. Another thing to consider. While this storm will be moving quickly after landfall as it moves along a cold front, that front will be crawling across the southern plains. That area will get several inches of rain before the storm ever gets there. Even a fast moving tropical cyclone inland can drop 8-15 inches of rain. That in connection with the pre-Ike rain could bring difficulties well inland…like 500 miles inland.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY…WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT…WHICH ADJUST TO 80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED…AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE ARE ABOUT 100 KT…AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI. AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED…THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO ABOUT 954 MB…BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING…ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD…STRONG WINDS OVER AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF IKE…AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED… CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER…THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF…AND IN THIS CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES…AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT…AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH LANDFALL. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD…A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT…BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI. BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.0N 89.4W 85 KT

12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.6N 90.9W 90 KT

24HR VT 12/1800Z 27.6N 93.0W 95 KT

36HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W 105 KT

48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.5W 65 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 14/1800Z 37.0N 90.5W 30 KT…INLAND

96HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Houston, You DO Have a Problem-Hurricane Ike; Do not let the day pass without Remembering our Fallen Countrymen September 11, 2008

for a more recent udate on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

First of all, take some time today to think of those who are risking and giving their lives in the service of our nation overseas. Think of their courage, pride and duty to country. Also think of those who on this date 7 years ago lost their lives doing nothing more than going to work; living their daily lives. The TV networks won’t show the footage. It is my view we need to see the footage again and again to serve as reminders of what happened to our nation and our countrymen. We should never forget and sometimes I think that many people do.

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 1515Z 0911

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Image 1515Z 0911

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it approaches coastal radar installations, CLICK HERE. Simply navigate to the gulf..even to street level. Click “animate” to loop. Cloud and lightning data is available.

Hurricane Ike is a weirdo. The central pressure is 945 mb which normally could support winds of 130-140 mph. But this guy is not doing that. Instead, its a very large storm with a broader field of strong winds but not the concentration of extreme winds. My guess is that this is because the pressure is low but its spread out over a large area….the gradient is not as steep. The risk here is that if the pressure gradient tightens up, then it could ramp up in intensity and could do so in relatively short order. No one can tell if or when this will happen. Because it is a broad storm, the effects will be felt over a large area. For that reason there is a hurricane warning from Morgan City, LA (SE of New Orleans) to Baffin Bay, Texas which is all the way south

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0911 11AM

of Corpus Christi near the King Ranch. That is a huge swath for a Hurricane Warning which means that hurricane force wind conditions can be expected within 24 hours. A buoy about 75 miles from the center reported gusts over 52 knots and seas of 29.5 feet. This is one of the things that is confounding. For a storm with a pressure so low, that buoy would typically be reporting much higher winds. Anyway, because of the pressure and because there still doesn’t appear to be too many inhibiting factors, the NHC still ramps up the intensity to about 120 mph or so at landfall.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0911 12Z

Landfall is currently expected near Freeport, TX…just SE of Galveston. This is a bad track for Galveston. After the 1900 Galveston Hurricane that wiped Galveston off the map in the biggest natural disaster in the history of the United States, they raised what is essesntially a sandbar 15 feet and built a 15 foot seawall. But, there is still the backside of the island and a rise in the water would fill up the island from the backside. In 1900, the city was literally cut off from the rest of the world. Nothing much has changed. A six foot rise in the tides cuts off the main artery of I-45. 23% of the refining capacity of the entire nation resides on the Houston Ship Channel. The refineries are inland along the 44 mile waterway and

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0911 12Z

are designed to withstand hurricanes of great force. But, there is the issue of a

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0911 11AM

storm surge and of loss of power. Our gas prices rose 30 cents yesterday.

The track remains wholly determined by the ridge that is steering the storm. If it turns sooner than currently forecast, then its not inconceivable that the storm moves east of Houston. That is not really advertised in the modeling data though the 00Z ECMWF has it turn pretty quickly north toward Houston and perhaps just east. The consensus track is concentrated fairly close to the forecast track. But, there remains many variables and the shear size of the storm means that it will have to potential to adversely affect a whole lot of people.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE…CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER…BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65 KT. IN FACT…THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY. FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY…BUT IKE HAS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…CURRENTLY ABOUT 945 MB. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST…IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL…ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS…AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL…WITH IKE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR LANDFALL…WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS…WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS TO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN…GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST…AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.5N 88.4W 85 KT

12HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT

24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W 95 KT

36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W 105 KT

48HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W 100 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W 35 KT…INLAND

96HR VT 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Ike Is A Big Boy September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR 0911 0245Z

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0910 11pm

for a more recent update for hurricane ike, CLICK HERE

The radar return is limited due to Ike’s distance from US radar locations, but you can navigate to the Gulf if you CLICK HERE. Navigate down to see what you can see and hit “animate” to loop the radar.

Hurricane Ike continues to have a bit of a more northerly component to the track than I suspect was anticipated because now its moving at 315 degree and earlier it was 310 degrees. That is not west-northwest. The weakness in the ridge caused by a trof that came through Louisville on Tuesday has been fairly pronounced. Thats why we fell to the 50′s overnight and will again tonight. But, the ridge should build back in as the trof goes by and the storm should turn back toward the west-northwest and then perhaps more westward for awhile. It will be well south of Louisiana but could produce a tidal rise of 3-5 feet and the area is under a tropical storm watch.

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Imagery 0911 00Z

As had been suggested previously (wonder who suggested that?) the storm is getting very large and its effect will be pretty vast. Ike is a very big boy.

A hurricane watch has been hoisted from just north of Brownsville all the way to Cameron, LA. Part of it is due to the somewhat variety of scenarios for the storm, but more to the point that it is a very large storm.

The official forecast track is somewhere between Galveston and Port Lavaca. This NHC forecast discussion claims its not much different than the last forecast track but it looks like a continued trend of nudging farther north to me. I’ve been

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti model 0911 00Z

suggesting that this guy might be slower than the forecast and I see now that the Friday night landfall forecast has been pushed back to Saturday morning. I’m not sure why the storm would accelerate much so a slow and steady movement across the Gulf seems like a reasonable assumption so an even later landfall may also be reasonable. With a slower pace, the likelihood of it starting a turn before it gets to the coast, in my view, becomes more viable and that, along with the size of the storm, is why I have been suggesting that those to the right of the forecast track make a decision of what you will do and then carry out the plan.

Forecast intensity is interesting in that the spaghetti model intensity graph’s

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Intensity Model 0911 00Z

extremes have come down a shade but the NHC continues to put the official forecast on the higher end of the range. The pressure is very low (944 mb) relative to the current winds and would theorhetically support much higher winds than the current 100 mph. Dry air earlier that showed up in the water vapor doesnt seem to be showing up too much now. There still seems to be some disruption to some western disruption of the outflow. However, the NHC really doesn’t see much out there to mess it up and so has made the forecast accordingly. It will be interesting to see just how the intensity will shake out. Big Bopper status is still likely in my view. Storm surges to the right of the track could be pretty tough. The Houston Ship Channel was built as a protector of the Texas’ main port of entry after the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. This storm may end up being a test.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

OVERALL…IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE…AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED…ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. PARADOXICALLY…IKE HAS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE…AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING…NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 944 MB…BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES. SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE AT ANY TIME…AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…THE HURRICANE COULD WEAKEN. IF…HOWEVER…THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS INTACT…AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS…IKE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS…THE UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER…AND IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL…BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND LGEM. THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING INLAND…BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP TO FINAL LANDFALL. THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6…A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK…BUT VERY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH…BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY…THE GFDL IS THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN…AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST….WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED. SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE…AND SINCE IKE WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 24.9N 86.7W 85 KT

12HR VT 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W 90 KT

24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 95 KT

36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W 100 KT

48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W 110 KT

72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W 55 KT…INLAND

96HR VT 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W 30 KT…INLAND

120HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER KNABB

Hurricane Ike Heading Toward Big Bopper Status September 10, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 2045Z 0910

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0910 5pm

for a more recent update on hurricane ike, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Ike is doing as expected so far and that is for it be become a very

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR 0910 2045Z

expansive hurricane and it continues to re-intensify following its visit to Communist Cuba. While at this time there is a little dry air showing up in the storm and it looks like there is some shear to the west slightly inhibiting the outflow in that region, it should be a Big Bopper of some stature at some point. Its moving slowly at about 8 mph and is moving at 310 degrees which perhaps is a shade more toward the north than initially forecast but still along the northwesterly track that has been favored for this time frame by the National Hurricane Center. The ECMWF has come around to bringing a landfall just west of Galveston near Freeport. This would be the absolute worst track for Galveston and Houston. While this and other models have pushed farther northward with the track, others

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0910 18Z

have not and so the NHC has only continued its trend of just nudging the landfall farther north. The official track now is about half way between Corpus Christi and Houston near Palacious Texas. It is forecat to be at or near category 4 status as it approaches the Texas coast. The Houston Ship Channel represents 23% of the nation’s oil refining capacity. The city of Houston has over 2 million people and the Metropolitan Houston has over 5 million. While the exact landfall will be a key to how much damage, if any, is done to the infrastructure of the refining industry and offshore oil production, the storm is so large that it seems an almost certainty that this region will be adversely affected. Should the storm indeed become a 135 mph at landfall, damage from the center to about 20 or 30 miles could be catastrophic. The storm surge from Palacious to Galveston would be significant. Because we’re running out of time here and the storm is projected to make a landfall on Friday night, I know I”m telling my friends and family to the right of the forecast track to decide what they are going to do now and do it.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0910 18Z

Now…after sounding that alarm I will tell you that the forward speed of the storm

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0910 5pm

could be different than forecast. My guess is that if it were different, it would probably be more likely to be slightly slower. Note that the spaghetti intensity models do not all take the Cat 4 route and that the NHC has chosen to go close to top of the range. That is because there is very little to suggest that it will not continue to increase in intensity. So far, the winds have not increased to what the corresponding pressure would support, but the pressure has not dropped any further in the past 6 hours. So, the jury is out somewhat. The forecast track will be wholly determined by how much and when the ridge builds back in, forcing the storm more westward, and how much and when it breaks down as the storm approaches the Texas coast. The forecast track has Ike taking a sharp turn after landfall. If that ridge breaks down either because a big trof is moving down more quickly or the hurricane moves more slowly, that turn could take place prior to landfall. Such a turn might put Galveston in greater peril or…and there is zero data to support this….a really early turn might even threaten farther up the Texas coast. Contrarily, if the ridge builds in stronger, does not break down as quickly and the storm moves faster, then it could conceivably be closer to Corpus Christi.

There is still almost the entire Gulf of Mexico for Ike to conquer and there remain several scenarios. Nonetheless, if you are near or to the right of the current forecast track, it would be wise to consider what it is you plan to do and do it. The shear volume of people though along the upper Texas coast requires that action be taken perhaps before any certainty can be ascertained.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT…WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING…INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND…RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS…ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS…WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE…I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO…WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE…MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE…AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST…THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Ike Going to Visit a King? September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Rainbow IR 0909 0315Z

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0909 0315Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

Not a whole lot to add this time except that earlier it looked like the center of

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 00Z

circulation may have snuck onshore while the security guards of the Communist Cuba weren’t looking but now its just off the southern shore moving right along. As long as the Hurricane Ike’s core of circulation remains offshore, it should be in decent shape for its Gulf of Mexico run. The water vapor imagery doesn’t seem to indicate any dry air intrusion. It will cross western Cuba on schedule and then we have to see what happens. The models have been consistently wanting to run the storm into South Texas. The ECMWF was the first to go with it and now the rest seem to be jumping on the European Bandwagon. It would seem that the National Hurricane Center is doing their trending routine with the track taking it from a SE

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0908 11pm

Texas appointment to off to the north of the consensus but still farther south to

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0909 11pm

near Port Lavaca about 125 miles north of Corpus Christi and now they’ve moved it farther south still to near Corpus. That is fairly close to the consensus of the spaghetti track. Rather interesting that the two real outliers go to the Florida Panhandle but I don’t think that is any thing to get alarmed about.

I wouldnt get married to this track just yet though. The models just this morning were all agreeing on Houston and then started shifting on the 18Z run. The GFS at 00Z was at New Orleans, at 12 Z was at Houston, at 18Z was at Brownsville and now the 00Z run it seems to have settled on Brownsville. What’s going on is that the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0909 00Z

ridge stays strong, runs the storm west and then there is some sense of the big pile of cold air that I’ve been talking about the models trying to bring down for a week, finally just blows it into the lower 48. But the time it does, the storm is so far west that it gets shoved west, even southwest into Mexico as the big Canadian high builds in. Again…let’s see if the pattern holds for another day or so. I still think that its going to be a formidable storm. About half of the models on the spaghetti intensity graph go for a cat 3 or higher. If its a big bopper, the best place in perhaps the entire United States is between Corpus and Brownsville in, I believe, Kennedy County. Its the King Ranch. More cows than people. Padre Island is a National Seashore at that point so there is zero development on the barrier island. Seems like a good place and the current over pattern prog would support something like that. Nevertheless, I saw a couple of models earlier today that took it toward Corpus and then due north to Houston. But, as i said, lets see if it lasts. During the change in seasons, the models can flip and flop as we have already seen. Still a long way out…Its not even in the Gulf yet. Confidence in the forecast from the NHC seems marginal. They are hinting that it could be stronger than advertised and keep the door open on the forecast track.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL

092008 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE’S EYE INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT…BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE. SINCE THE INNER CORE APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING…SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. AFTER IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE’S CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE…BUT WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES. AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA…THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO…AND JUST OFFSHORE OF…THE COAST. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-5 DAYS…THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN…ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS…SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. I AM FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF…WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS…WOULD NOT HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS A GLOBAL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS…IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 21.8N 80.8W 70 KT

12HR VT 09/1200Z 22.4N 82.3W 80 KT

24HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.0W 85 KT

36HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.7W 90 KT

48HR VT 11/0000Z 24.8N 87.2W 95 KT

72HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 91.0W 100 KT

96HR VT 13/0000Z 27.0N 94.5W 100 KT

120HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 95 KT…INLAND

$$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG