Hurricane Gustav Getting All Dressed Up…It’s Got Somewhere To Go. August 30, 2008

For a more recent update on Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Gustav Satellite Imagery Via the US Navy Naval Research Lab 2215Z 082908

National Forecast Depiction Sunday AM 0831

Louisville Weather relates to Gustav:

A big area of high pressure will build into to the Ohio Valley over the weekend and bring us dry and warm weather through Labor Day. That high will determine the fate of both Gustav and Hanna. As the ridge builds in, it will also build south. If the ridge builds in fast, then it could drive Gustav farther west. Some models want to take it to the Texas coast. If the ridge comes in slower or weaker, then Gustav conceivably could be driven farther east of the track…not just to New Orleans but possibly Mississippi. That is not a very popular solution on the spaghetti model chart. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for something in the middle and pretty close to the median of the cluster of model tracks. Should the storm make landfall west of New Orleans, eventually some of that moisture could make it back our way by late next week. If it’s east of New Orleans, then we Louisville get nothing. As the ridge builds farther east into the Atlantic, data indicates that it will pick up Hanna, drive it southwest and then west across Florida and into the Gulf.

Hurricane Gustav NHC forecast Track 11pm 0829

Hurricane Gustav is looking extremely impressive on the satellite imagery. It is almost symmetrical now and has good outflow in all quadrants. The central

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti model 0830 00Z

pressure continues to fall, most recently down to 970 mb. The winds are 80mph but will correspondingly increase in response to a fairly rapid fall in pressure. Even though the storm should interact with the western end of Cuba, that part of the Communist Island is generally devoid of any elevation to speak of and the storm shouldn’t be impeded so long as it continues to move foward, which all indications suggest that it will. With the storm getting itself together, I am even more of the opinion that this storm

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0830 00Z

will be, for a time at least, a bit stronger than forecast and will probably increase in strength pretty quickly. The weekend could be interesting on that front. The National Hurricane Center has slightly increased the intensity forecast to the high end of the Spaghetti model intensity graph. The forecast track has not changed much…just nudged a shade to the west. Instead of eastern Vermillion Bay…it now splits Vermillion Bay from Southeast to Northwest and then brings it to a crawl in East Texas. All indications continue to suggest that this guy will be a huge rainmaker for East Texas and much of Louisiana. While the storm surge could be as high as 25 feet in coastal regions of Louisiana from Callou Bay to Port Fourchon to Boothville. A storm surge such as that would actually cover a large part of the parishes on the coast. Some surge would also affect New Orleans with a surge of lesser amounts coming up Lake Borgne and the intercoastal waterway.

Katrina Flooding Extent Aug 31, 2005

If the track holds, then the surge coming from the SE up Lake Borgne probably wouldn’t be as dramatic as it was with Katrina 3 years ago. But, if the storm were to actually make landfall farther east, yet west of New Orleans, then the surge potential would increase dramatically and thus the risk increases markedly. Remember, Katrina a day prior to This Date In History, did not hit New Orleans…it his Mississippi. The brunt of the storm surge went into Mississippi. Katrina was a cat 3 storm when it hit near Venice but it had a storm surge comparable to that of a cat 5 hurricane. I’m going to direct you to the blog I posted last year on the subject. (CLICK HERE…ITS WORTH YOUR WHILE) In the blog is a link to the New Orleans Times-Picayune website and a very good explaning map of how the flooding unfolded with a time line and graphical representation. It is very very informative and something the national media should review before it does any stories because they can learn something from it. It was very informative to me and helped me understand what the real story was when Snow White and I went down to help build some houses. BTW..New Orleans is my birthplace and am very familiar with it. My Grandfather was one of the key men in building the Superdome as well as numerous other large structures in that city and others around the world.

Anway….the spaghetti models have come into closer alignment on the track with about 2/3 of them going anywhere from the east side of Vermillion Bay to Cameron. A few still want to take it farther west. At this point, I would still suggest that there are variables out there that need to be considered. Landfall date or region won’t really be predictable for probably another 48 hours or so. Then the environmental steering conditions will have shown itself. Here is the 11pm discussion for Gustav. We’ll take another look at Hanna on Saturday afternoon or evening.

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING…AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM. RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA…BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE…WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA…WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR…THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW. THIS…COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA…MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT…AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR. THUS…THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT…THE LGEM 97 KT…THE
HWRF 114 KT…THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT…AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING…THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER…
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES… WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Gustav Soon to Be Hurricane Gustav Again August 29, 2008

For The Initial Hurricane Report on Hurricane Gustav Click Here

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Forecast Track 11am 0829

Tropical Storm Gustav I suspect will be Hurricane Gustav before the sun goes down. From the satellite photo, it looks extremely impressive and it would honestly surprise me if it isn’t Hurricane Gustav well before sundown. At 11am it was down to 988mb with winds at 65 mph. That won’t last and I also think it will zip up in intensity pretty quickly. There is nothing to really stand in its way over the next day or so. The, the questions that I raised in the last post (..Landslide Lyndon, click here) show up. And, some of those questions now are showing up even more prominently on the spaghetti model. Now, six models have the storm swinging toward Texas with others wanting to turn it west either just off the Louisiana coast or just after a mid Central Louisiana landfall. Now, the spaghetti intensity model

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0829 12Z

graph backs off the models in the extreme range as they seem to be of the opinion that the trof in the Gulf will stay put and enough of a southwesterly shear to inhibit intensification. I would caution that intensity forecasts are often wrong. I would also caution about the track. While the NHC has slightly shoved it to the right, it is becoming easier to make a case for farther west. Interests from New Orleans to Victoria Texas to pay attention.

Here is a story regarding oil and gasoline prices.

Heres the 11AM Tropical Storm Gustav 11AM Discussion:

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 12Z

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100 UTC…WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB…GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…SO STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV CROSSES CUBA…THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL…ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A LITTLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND IS HEADED FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER…THE MODELS DIVERGE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH…WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW LESS OF THAT RIDGING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS…GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN…AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 78.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W 95 KT…OVER WESTERN CUBA 48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W 105 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W 60 KT…INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Storm Gustav and Landslide Lyndon August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm, soon to be hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The forecast holds. A front coming through on Friday may kick off a few showers or errant t’storms but nothing substantial areawide. Bad news cause we need the rain. But, it will leave us with a spectacular Labor Day weekend with tons of sun and warm afternoons and relatively mild nights.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Gustav 11pm Forecast Track 0828

Tropical Storm Gustav: The forecast generally holds with this cat. Tropical Storm Gustav is holding together pretty well as it moves across Jamaica. In fact its satellite

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

image looks really impressive. It will emerge over the open water and probably strengthen rather rapidly. I still think that this guy has a chance to explode after it moves away from Jamaica. The forecast track is farther west than it has been with it going inland in western part of Vermillion Bay in Louisiana and then to Lake Charles. This is fairly close to the spaghetti model consensus except there is a bit of a difference. Several models become more muddled at the end of the track and move the storm west as it approaches the coast. The intensity graph also reflects a general consensus in the cat 2 or cat 3 range. The track is reflective of the notion that a ridge of high pressure moves across the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

southern part of the US and slows the forward track then keeps moving east, picks up the storm and resumes its course northwest. What the outlying models seem to be wanting to do is to have that ridge hang tough in the south US and drive the storm west along the coast. What the ridge does I think will end up being a key to the fate of Gustav. There is also a trof in the Gulf. That will be what breaks down the ridge that is currently steering Gustav and allows for its turn northwest. That trof should help increase a southwesterly shear and the models seem to agree that will inhibit the storm. They key, I think, as to whether or not Gustav becomes excessively strong will be if the southwesterly shear materializes and, if so, how much. If the trof is weak enough…or retreats west as many models suggest…it may not have the storm move to the northwest to the extent that the official forecast calls. Texas should still not write this guy off…there are a couple of real scenarios that I can draw that would move the target farther west.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

Tropical Storm Hanna: This storm is rather interesting because, until now, there was a general consensus of the storm moving northwest and then swinging out to sea. Earlier data supported the idea that a ridge builds in the Atlantic and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

blocks it, leaving it hung out to dry. The latest spaghetti tracks now even have it moving Southwest toward the Islands. I suppose that might be the ridge that is supposed to move across the southern US blocking and then driving Gustav, emerging offshore to shove Hanna southwest. Either way, I may have to reverse course a bit and say that this guy may be worth paying attention to after all. The forecast is so muddled that there are numerous scenarios. But I will continue to focus on Gustav until Hanna proves its meddle.

On a side note…yes oil prices rose then fell. Why? (story) Well, the dollar went up and, in my view, the weak dollar is probably the biggest reason for the rise in oil prices. Lately, the dollar has risen and oil prices have fallen. Today there a report came out that the economy expanded by some 3.6% which hardly is evidence of a recession. Anyway, I saw a trader on CNBC today who commented that the rigs were very strong and he thought that the markets would recognize the resiliency of the offshore industry. We’ll see. But so far, it seems the fate of the dollar is more important to the price of oil today than Gustav. We’ll see if that holds…let’s hope the Uncle Sam is stronger than Gustav. The 11pm National Hurricane Center 11pm Discussion for Gustav is at the bottom of this post.

LBJ Listened to His Constituents

On This Date In History: On this date in 1948 Lyndon Baines Johnson, who grew up on the Perdanales River in the Texas Hill Country, was basking in the glow of victory. Johnson had forever gained the moniker “Landslide Lyndon.” The night before the young representative had secured the nomination from his party as the

When LBJ Spoke, Sometimes Others Were Forced to Listen

candidate for the United States senate from Texas. His margin of victory? 87 votes. State politics was pretty wild in the Lone Star State at that time and this case it was no different. After the polls closed a “block of votes” just happened to turn up in Duval County. In Jim Wells County, which often had such a high turnout there were more votes cast than eligible voters, the voting totals kept changing. Each side charged corruption. An investigation was held, then halted when the voting lists in Jim Wells county were either “lost” or “stolen.” The ballots on Duval County were burned by the courthouse janitor. And so, Lyndon Baines Johnson was on his way to the United States Senate and later to the White House as the 36th President of the United States.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Gustav Lapping Haiti; Could Move Toward Gulf August 26, 2008

This was posted on Aug 26!!!…FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON GUSTAV Click Here

Hurricane Gustav NHC forecast track 5pm 0826

The prevailing thinking regarding Hurricane Gustav has not changed much. Gustav made a landfall in Haiti and has decreased a bit in intensity but is expected to move back over water and start a climb upward if it follows the forecast track just south of Cuba and in between Cuba and Jamaica before clipping the extreme west end of Cuba that is very flat and should not disrupt the flow much. This official track is in line with the track of the majority of models which are clustered together for the next few days, though they seem to be a shade farther south than the previous run. While no models take it to Cat 5 status any longer, 13 take it to cat 2 or higher and just 3 keep it weaker. This is forecast to become a major hurricane in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend. Interests from Pensacola to Corpus Christi should keep an eye on this hurricane. Here is the 5pm discussion:

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0826 18Z

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES…ON

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0826 18Z

WHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT…INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC. A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED
INLAND…HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT. SO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB. IN ANY
EVENT…NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI…GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING
STRENGTH. THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES…AND
THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…AND THEREFORE GUSTAV
IS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS…LGEM…HWRF…AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE
RECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE
LITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING
PATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE’S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND OVERALL THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.4N 73.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 75.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 76.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 19.6N 78.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.3N 81.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 85.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 88.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Gustav Has Big Bopper Potential August 26, 2008

for a more recent update on hurricane gustav,CLICK HERE

NHC Hurricane Gustav Forecast Track 11AM 0826

I have had a suspicion that Gustav would be something to reckon with but I had no model data to support that assumption.  Now, data is starting to confirm that this

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0826 12Z

 storm may be the most formidable storm we have had to deal with in the US for, not just this season, but the last few years.  The models have come into a consensus that is very close to the offiical forecast track with the storm generally staying south of Cuba.  This track would have some interaction with land away from the center of circulation and does have it going over the western tip of Cuba.  The western tip of Cuba is relatively flat and that in conjunction with the short duration over land should not disrupt the storm much.  Aside from land interaction with the mountainous regions of the Dominican Republic and Eastern Cuba, there is really nothing to stand in the way of this storm strengthening and perhaps rather rapidly.  If you note the Spaghetti models for Hurricane Gustav, you will see that many tracks avoid land almost completely and a

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0826 12Z

few have a track that seems to threaten the Northeastern Gulf including Houston, New Orleans, the refining assets in the area not to mention offshore oil production interests.  Look for oil prices to rise.  The spaghetti intensity graphs have 4 models on the high end approaching or reaching Cat 5 status of 155 mph winds.

Keep in mind that the models are not Gospel and there are many days and potential variations in the days to come.  It is possible that an unforseen hostile environment may develop in the coming days but, at this time, there is nothing to indicate anything but a very favorable environment.  Having said that, you will note that there are many models that do not go along with the most dire scenario and so this is not set in stone.  But, personally, I think it is more likely for a very strong hurricane getting trapped in a Gulf of Mexico surrounded by land mostly under the possession of Uncle Sam.  If you know people with interests on the Gulf of Mexico from Pensacola to Brownsville, you may want to clue them in that this one is worthy of their attention.  Here’s the 11AM NHC Gustav Discussion:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT…AND AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT.
THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.  A
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE OF GUSTAV DURING THE LAST AIRCRAFT
PASS THROUGH THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC…FOUND A SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 982 MB…BUT WITH 12 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE…SO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SLIGHTLY LOWER.  THE AIRCRAFT
AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
VERY SMALL EYE…HOWEVER THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8.  TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER FLORIDA.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE
GFDL…HWRF…AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV’S PASSAGE OVER
LAND…AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE
MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.  THEREAFTER…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…WHICH FAVORS
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL…
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF.

ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO
POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.9N  72.4W    80 KT
12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.6N  73.3W    75 KT
24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N  74.6W    80 KT
36HR VT     28/0000Z 19.3N  75.9W    85 KT
48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.4N  77.3W    90 KT
72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  80.2W   100 KT
96HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  83.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N  87.0W   105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Tropical Storm Gustav Likely Becoming a Hurricane August 26, 2008

for a more recent update for hurricane gustav CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0826 00Z

If you look back and read between the lines of my comments on the previous post,

Gustav Official NHC Forecast Track 0825 11pm EDT

you might be able to gleen a bit of a suspicion that they would continue to shift the official track farther south to the solution that takes Gustav south of Cuba. If you got my hurricane newsletter, then you got a more direct submission. In any event, the National Hurricane Center made an initial forecast track today running the storm north of Cuba but they also cautioned that the confidence was not high. Not unusual as the storm really sprang to life today after being relatively docile for most of its life. Except for one set of runs, the spaghetti chart indicated that numerous models wanted to take it to the south of

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0826 00Z

Cuba and now the official forecast reflects that the consensus is a little more clear and that, indeed, there is evidence that a ridge is building over Florida that will steer the storm west. Gustav should spend most of Tuesday as a strengthening hurricane and if anything, the forecast track is more likely to shift farther south than north.

That is good news for Florida and bad news for the Gulf of Mexico and potentially for all of our pocketbooks. Should it follow the forecast track, the likelihood of it increasing in intensity ever looms larger. Four of the models in the spaghetti

Invest 95L Spaghetti Model 0826 00Z

intensity graph now indicate a storm well into the category 3 area with winds approaching 110 kts. It is not unreasonable at this point that its not out of the question that there could be more beyond that. Keep in mind that six models keep it below hurricane status with two of them going from a strong cat 1 back to a tropical storm, which indicates a landfall over one of the islands. Five models go between cat 1 and cat 2.

Bottom line: If this guy stays mainly over water and follows the general forecast track, which seems like a pretty real possibility, then it will have the potential to become a big bopper because it would then have the opportunity to move into the wide warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. But, there is a lot of time between now and then so don’t buy the plywood just yet. But, in my mind of all the storms that have developed this year, this one is probably the one that has the greatest need to be watched very closely by all maritime and coastal interests, particularly the Gulf Coast from Brownsville to Mobile. Invest 95L shows up on some models as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane but, as I’ve said before, it still looks to be mainly a concern for maritime interests, except for Bermuda. Here is the 11PM National Hurricane Center Discussion for Tropical Storm Gustav:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY FIND A HURRICANE. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE…AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY…SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI. AFTER THAT…THE INTENSITY OF GUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT…WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC…IS AT LEAST DIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF GUSTAV’S FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE LEFT. EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS…THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP GUSTAV SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT MOST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.6N 71.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 72.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 73.9W 80 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 27/1200Z 19.3N 75.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 76.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 78.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 80.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 83.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN