ABC-Ana, Bill and Claudette-Nothing to get too worked up about at this time August 17, 2009

Bill Looking Better 0215Z 08.17.09

Finding Ana is like Finding Waldo 145Z 08.17.09

I would still qualify the tropics getting active by saying sorta active.  When I explain you will understand.  We do have 3 tropical cyclones…again sorta.  The oldest of the three is Ana which was down graded to tropical depression status after a hurricane hunter went out and had a tough time finding a closed circulation and found no evidence of tropical storm force winds.  The strongest winds were well north of the region suspected of being the center.  If you saw yesterday’s satellite photo then you know that even then Ana looked pretty pitiful and now its even worse.  In the 5pm discussion, the boys at the NHC talked about the potential of discontinuing advisories.  At 11pm EDT the pressure was pegged at 1008 mb but,  as I mentioned yesterday, it just doesn’t have any upper level support to  help it develop, partly because its moving so fast.  At a forward speed of 25 mph its tough to have time to allow an anticylone to develop aloft.  But, this is the reason that this guy will be monitored, even if they discontinue the advisories…which will probably happen when they get surface reports from some of the islands showing that the storm has no circulation to speak of. 

Ana NHC Forecast Track 11pm 08.16.09

The forecast track leaves open the possibility that this guy skirts just south of Dominica and sneaks south of Cuba  before crossing the western end of the island into the Gulf of Mexico.  If it can maintain any sense of low level circulation as it makes that trek and its possible given its forward speed and the fact that western Cuba is relatively flat, then perhaps the environment may change and allow for upper level support to get going.  That would be unusual but not impossible.  So, for now, Ana looks pretty worthless but regardless of the classification, I suspect that it will still warrant a looksee in the days to come.  All of that is a big if because the National Hurricane Center shifted the official forecast track in such a way as to make Ana run over the heart of the islands, which would make it almost impossible for any further life expectancy.

Bill Spaghetti Intensity Model 00Z 08.17.09

TS Bill NHC Forecast Track 11pm EDT 08.16.09

The cyclone known as Bill will probably become Hurricane Bill in short order.  It behaved itself and moved slow enough to allow for upper level support to get established.  So, it’s going to have lots of time to get wound up.  It may even jump up to about 110-120 mph.  But, in about 3 days, it will start to be influenced with a northerly component.  A frontal system will be coming across the US.  Should pass through Louisville on Thursday night.  As that front comes across the nation, the ridge that extends from the Atlantic into the Eastern US will break down which will allow the storm to start to turn.  As it turns and runs into some southwesterly winds aloft, then that may start to mess up its anticyclone aloft which will at least have the potential to cut off any strengthening.  If the southwesterly sheer is sufficient, it may even cause it to weaken a bit.  By the time we’re at Friday, the frontal trof is sitting along the east coast of the US, effectively blocking any advance of Bill toward the US and keeping it out to sea.  At this time, Bill looks to be a headache for shipping and maybe for Bermuda.  It would seem that the only scenario to change this outlook would be if the ridge didn’t break down so fast and the front got held up, but there is no indication of that occuring.

Cluster of Storms known as Claudette 0215Z 08.17.09

Now, that leads us with Tropical Storm Claudette, which formed off the Florida Panhandle.  Its too close to land to really have a chance to develop rapidly.  Sunday afternoon the hurricane hunters found a central pressure of just 1008 mb but they did find surface winds gusting over 50 mph.  It seems to be a pretty broad center of circulation and again, the pressure isn’t too terribly low.  The probability of it becoming a hurricane was pegged at 2%, but I doubt it will ever be anything more than it is on Sunday night.  It should be moving ashore somewhere around Destin or just east of Pensacola.  This will generally just be a rain maker.  At 10:06 EDT I found a station near Panama City with winds of 22 kts gusting to 41 kts.  That was the most impressive reading that I could find in the region.  Offshore, seas were 7.5 feet at their highest fairly close to the center with readings closer to shore of 3-4 feet.  Now, the center is shown on the official forecast track to be in Northern Mississippi by late Monday night.  The models though either are not aware of the feature and so they are not initiating well, or it rains itself out along the coast because neither the NAM or GFS are too enthused about rain potential inland.  However, it will be adding to atmospheric moisture at least and enhance rain chances in the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley for Monday through Thursday with the approach of the cold front and with a few shortwaves coming through the flow from the southwest ahead of the approaching trof.  Really, some of the models are getting pretty aggressive with rain in the upper Ohio Valley…maybe as far south as Louisville for late Thursday.

Ana Spaghetti Model 00Z 08.17.09

WTNT42 KNHC 170250
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
ANA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY AT
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/23.  ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED…IT IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND APPEARS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTER
APPEARS REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR BUT THIS IS
LIKELY DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RATHER THAN ONE AT THE
SURFACE.  AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER NOT STOP ADVISORIES WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER IF
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS CONFIRM THE LACK OF A
CENTER…ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED EARLY MONDAY.

VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING…AND A
FEW SUCH AS THE GFS…HWRF…AND GFDL LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER ABOUT
36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANA SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN 24-36 HOURS…AND IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT ITS CIRCULATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THAT ISLAND
INTACT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ANA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
36 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS CROSSING LAND…BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AT ANY TIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM
TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT
ANA WILL NOT RE-STRENGTHEN OR UNTIL IT PASSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 16.0N  61.2W    30 KT
12HR VT     17/1200Z 16.7N  64.4W    30 KT
24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N  68.6W    30 KT
36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.6N  72.6W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     19/0000Z 21.2N  76.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  81.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     21/0000Z 26.0N  84.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     22/0000Z 28.0N  86.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Bill Spaghetti Model 00Z 08.17.09

WTNT43 KNHC 170253
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE TOPS TO -80C WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST…ALONG
WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  A LONG…WELL-DEFINED BAND
CONNECTED TO THE ITCZ IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE…WHILE
LESSER BANDING COILS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB…RESPECTIVELY.
TAKING THE MEAN OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES…THE ADVISORY WIND
SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT.

RECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT YIELD AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17…REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED THAN BEFORE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH…BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  WITH LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE CURRENT MODEL CYCLE THROUGH THIS TIME…THE OFFICIAL
TRACK DEVIATES LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER…
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG 60W…WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  MOST OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS…AND
SO HAS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  ONLY THE UKMET FAVORS A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AND APPEARS AS THE LONE…SOUTHERN OUTLIER
AMONGST THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…ESPECIALLY BEYOND 96
HOURS…BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW…BILL HAS BEEN
TRACKING OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WATERS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO WARM FURTHER UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS.  INTERESTINGLY…THE
GFDL/HWRF SHOW A NEARLY FLAT INTENSIFICATION RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO…PERHAPS UNDERSCORING THE TEPID THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED…HOWEVER…THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX
SHOWS A 41% CHANCE OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THEREAFTER…THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW
SHEAR AND WARMING WATERS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR BILL…ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE…
WHICH PREDICTS A FAIRLY STEADY RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL
OUTRUNS FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACCORDINGLY…THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 13.4N  41.7W    60 KT
12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.1N  43.7W    70 KT
24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.9N  46.5W    80 KT
36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N  49.2W    85 KT
48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.8N  51.8W    95 KT
72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.7N  56.8W   105 KT
96HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N  61.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 28.1N  65.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Claudette Spaghetti Model 00Z 08.17.09

WTNT44 KNHC 170247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.   MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM…AND
APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER…RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION…AND IT IS IN THESE
CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.  WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT…THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.

THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS
MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK…ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND
REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS…WATCHES…AND
WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 30.2N  86.1W    45 KT
12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.3N  87.2W    40 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  88.3W    30 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  88.9W    20 KT…DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT     19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Is Justice Too Blind? Can Whiskers Buy Votes? Is Omar a Howler? October 15, 2008

Rain Total Forecast Wed 1015 thru Fri 1018

for a link to a radar loop and a more recent update on hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE

As you can tell if you compare this outlook for the latter part of the week with the previous HPC forecast assessment of raintotals through Friday evening, you will notice much less anticipated around here. That is because there are a couple of scenarios but neither brings much rain here. The ETA today was advertising a little less than a half inch on Thursday afternoon and that was it. The GFS wanted a little early Thursday and a little early Friday totalling less than 1/10 of an inch. We feel like the truth is somewhere in between. While we think that Wednesday will be warm, the first little weak boundary may be sufficient to bring some showers early Thursday. Then the second push with the cold air associated with it, brings some light scattered activity on Friday. Look for sunshine over the weekend but highs on Saturday and Sunday of 60 and 68 respectively but with frost possible in some areas on Saturday night as everyone should fall to the 30′s.

Atlantic IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Years ago, I saw Jimmy Buffett in Austin and his harmonica player, Greg “Fingers” Taylor performed the night before with “Omar and the Howlers”. Not sure what happened to that band…I think Fingers Taylor has still performed with Jimmy off and on over the years….but today we have Hurricane Omar, which is bearing down on the Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten (Martin) and St. Barthelemy. Omar has looked pretty good on the satellite image and became a hurricane Tuesday evening. It’s still likely to move through the northeast Caribbean and into the open Atlantic where liners, freighters, oil tankers and pirates will have to deal with it.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Tropical Depression 16 is still generally expected to move along the Honduran coast and into Belize. A couple of models differ with that scenario and that may be a result of climatology built into the models. If the storm were to move slow enough, it would be possible for the ridge steering it move or break down and allow for some northward motion. But, that is not expected and the most serious aspect of this storm at this point is heavy rain and flood potential in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The most interesting thing most likely will be if it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma or if it makes it across into the Pacific.

Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Discussion for both tropical systems as well as the forecast tracks and more graphical information.

Harper's Weekly Mar 9, 1861 Lincoln Sneaks Into Washington

Last Lincoln Portrait Apr 4 1865

On This Date in History: On October 15, 1860 the Republican nominee for President, Abraham Lincoln, received a letter from eleven-year-old Grace Bedell. At that time, women did not have the right to vote so young Grace urged Mr. Lincoln to grow a beard. She said, “All the ladies like whiskers and they will tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president.” But, Lincoln did not grow the beard until after he was elected. Most histories suggest that the beard was grown as a make-shift disguise for his arrival in Washington for the inaugural because there were so many threats against his life. He came to Washington under the cover of darkness, with the beard. But, Lincoln later responded to queries and said that the genesis of the beard was traced back to the letter of Grace Bedell.

Now, artists were alerted in advance that the President-elect would emerge at the inaugural with a beard. But no one knew what he would look like. So, they simply used existing photos and added beard styles of their choosing. I think it’s safe to say that none of them were able to fully reproduce the lasting image of “Father Abraham.”

Blindfold Too Tight For Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1014 11pm

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING…

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR…AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0…OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION… THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5…AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO…AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE…BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT…BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008

1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11pm

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER…ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS…BUT ONLY A SMALL

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER…POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION…A GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.2N 83.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.6W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 85.8W 35 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.2N 87.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 88.5W 40 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 91.0W 25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK

Tropical Storm Omar Looks Better While Tropical Depression 16 Looks Lost October 14, 2008

Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

for a more recent update on hurricane omar with a link to a radar loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Omar Became a Hurricane Tuesday Night (click here)

There really isn’t much different from the midday action regarding the tropics.

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar is looking pretty impressive on the visible satellite and will probably becomea hurricane. It won’t pose a problem unless you are heading to the Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Barbuda or Antigua. After it passes through the Antilles it goes into the Central Atlantic where it will die a slow death in cold waters. Really, aside from the islands, it is a maritime concern.

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 is so broad that its difficult to pin point a center but from the Satellite I’d wager that its just off the Northeastern Honduran Coast. The official forecast has it moving on the edge of a ridge to the

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

north and moving generally parallel to the Honduran coast and then into Belize. The amount of land interaction will determine whether or not it becomes Poloma. It may be interesting to see if it survives enough to re-emerge over the Pacific and cause trouble. The only concern here, and its not that great, is that the storm moves so slowly that the ridge to the north breaks down and allows for motion to the north, which would then create a scenario for a threat to the US, primarily Florida. But there is a general consensus in the modeling data that does not support such a movement at this time…but its worth taking note. Otherwise, Nana is off the board and Invest 90 is pretty worthless at the moment.

Here is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for 5pm for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar. Also find spaghetti models.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT…RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB…BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE…
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY…AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR…THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS…EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS…WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST…WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING…POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION… IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS…GFDL… AND HWRF MODELS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE…OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT…
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.0N 68.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 68.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 66.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 62.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 58.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 31.1N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER…A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY…WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE
TIME BEING…WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY…BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS…
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT…AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY…THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS…WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER…THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Omar Shows Up; Tropical Depression 16 October 14, 2008

Atlantic Visible Satellite 1014 1415Z

Tropical Storm Omar became a hurricane on Tuesday night (click here)

As I had indicated earlier, the two systems worth watching are the two that are on the upswing. Former Tropical Storm Nana is worthless and it’s partner, Invest 90 is a long way from becoming name worthy.

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Depression 15, as anticipated, is now Tropical Storm Omar. It is just

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

meandering in the Eastern Caribbean and while it dawdles, it should get picked up by some trofiness that will pick it up and move it north and then north-northeast. The models prog the system as a developing hurricane and the satellite imagery looks fairly worthwhile. The track will make it a rain and wind maker for the islands and then be generally a concern for maritime interests.

Invest 99 has turned into Tropical Depression 16 and may

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11AM

become Tropical Storm Paloma. The interesting facets of this system are its

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

proximity and also the forecast track. It is just off of the Honduran coast and is forecast to move to the northwest and then west, basically paralleling the Honduran coast. With this forecast track, it is progged to become Tropical Storm Paloma. However, should its central core move slightly west of the forecast track, then it will be on shore and development would be tough, if not impossible. Either way, its slow movement will produce a whole mess of rain in Honduras and Nicaragua and surrounding Central American nations and those areas are notorious for not being able to handle extreme rain very well. One note of concern is that as this guy moves slowly, the more time there would be for steering currents to change…perhaps a trof building down or a ridge building in, that would turn this guy north. While only a handful of the models advertise this and it is contrary to the official forecast track, the slow movement must cause one to keep that possibility in the back of one’s mind as such an event might create a scenario that would eventually affect the US and this time of year, that scenario becomes a little more likely than at earlier times in the hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center Discussions for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar along with spaghetti models are below:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH
BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  HOWEVER...IT
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD
APPEAR LIKELY.  OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND
THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.6N  83.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  83.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  85.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.0N  69.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N  67.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.3N  65.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N  60.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Ike Forecast Nudged North September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visibile Image 0909 2115

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0909 18Z

for a more recent update on hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

I’ve got other thing to do so this will be short. I’m going sculling with Snow White. The forecast track graphic is from the Naval Research Lab because I think it shows better specific stuff like towns and lat/lon lines. Hurricane Ike has emerged from Cuba in pretty good shape. It has a great looking

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track NRL Graphic 0909 5pm

outflow and the water vapor imagery is devoid of any dry air within the storm that would mess it up. The winds are said to be at minimal intensity as it moved offshore but the central pressure is a very healthy 968 mb. That will support much higher winds. I suspect that this guy is going to ramp back up fairly quickly. As for the track, those models have become more clustered again, like they were yesterday, but that cluster has moved north. The National Hurricane Center forecast has shifted north, pretty much on the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 18Z

consensus track, just north of Corpus Christi. If you read my last post you will not be surprised to find out that I am not surprised by the official shift. There are some refineries in that area and around Port Lavaca but nothing like the 23% of the nations refining capacity along the Houston Ship Channel. The track is still not Gospel. What the forecast track reflects is the breaking down of the ridge as a trof moves in. It gets caught up in the trof and zips north to San Antonio and then west of Dallas. It should bring rain to the plains and Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday but will be moving very rapidly so overly excessive rain is not a huge likelihood.

So, here’s the bottom line. The Spaghetti model consensus has gone from Houston to Brownsville to south of Corpus Christi to North of Corpus Christi in 36 hours. The track is not Gospel. Other scenarios are possible. Stay tuned….should be interesting.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA…ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE…AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW…968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME…THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO…INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES…REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF…WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF…SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Perhaps Hurricane Ike is a Cattle Man…or Maybe A Magic Man September 9, 2008

Cowboy Ike?

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 0909 1615Z

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Rainbow 0909 12Z

for a more recent update on hurricane ike CLICK HERE

We seem to have some continuity for once. The cows of the King Ranch are chewing their cud a little faster. For the first time in several days, the models have had some consistency from run to run. Well, the majority anyway, The ECMWF has been consistent with a South Texas landfall for a few days now and the others have come around. The National Hurricance Center seems to have stopped its trending South (remember yesterday morning the spaghetti consensus was the Houston area. and for the time being has settled on a King Ranch scenario. BUT Ike may have another trick up its sleeve…some interesting items are coming

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0909 11AM

about. Yesterday, I saw one model run of some different model (I don’t recall which one) that had the storm approach South Texas and suddenly take an abrupt turn north. That track took it to Houston…not directly as the official forecast had at the time, but by a circuitous route. What is happening now is that there are several models including the ECMWF and the all-over-the-place GFS take the storm into South Texas and then make an abrupt turn to the north toward Austin. What is going on is that the big front that is scheduled to bring lows in the 40′s and perhaps even highs that don’t get into the 70′s in Louisville is still the preferred solution for early next week. These models advertising the abrupt turn are calling for the trof to dig all the way into Texas. Now…here’s a plausible scenario. Ike

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0909 12Z

traverses the Gulf as suggested…but does so more slowly. The trof digs down as some models suggest. The turn now being called for just after landfall happens just offshore of Texas prior to landfall as the trof and Ike meet farther out in the Gulf because of Ike’s slowed pace. The storm turns and threatens the upper Texas coast or even Louisiana or maybe even other parts of the north Gulf Coast. Earlier, several models had abrupt turns northeast. Some had it from the upper Texas coast to SW Louisiana, others kept insisting on the storm going to the mouth of the Mississippi river before turning Northeast or even East. So, we’ve got a trof coming down. If, and its a big IF, the trof does dig down then the abrupt turn

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 12Z

somewhere comes back into play. I see some of the models on the spaghetti presentation are suggesting this scenario.  At this point I’m in no way going out on that limb, in fact I’m not going on any limb. I’m not even in any tree at this point.  I saw some expert last night say definitively it was going to Houston directly. I suspect he will be singing a different tune today. But all I am saying is that the song being sung by the models now may not be the final tune. So far, they have introduced numerous different verses and I suspect that the song is still being written as we speak.  My guess is that the NHC has stopped their trend south for the time being to wait and see what the piano-player has in mind next.

 

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL…AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS…BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.  SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY…BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT…RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF…AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN…WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR…AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING…AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF…WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE…WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2…AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT
12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT
24HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT
36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT
48HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W   100 KT
72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Ike Going to Visit a King? September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Rainbow IR 0909 0315Z

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0909 0315Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

Not a whole lot to add this time except that earlier it looked like the center of

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 00Z

circulation may have snuck onshore while the security guards of the Communist Cuba weren’t looking but now its just off the southern shore moving right along. As long as the Hurricane Ike’s core of circulation remains offshore, it should be in decent shape for its Gulf of Mexico run. The water vapor imagery doesn’t seem to indicate any dry air intrusion. It will cross western Cuba on schedule and then we have to see what happens. The models have been consistently wanting to run the storm into South Texas. The ECMWF was the first to go with it and now the rest seem to be jumping on the European Bandwagon. It would seem that the National Hurricane Center is doing their trending routine with the track taking it from a SE

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0908 11pm

Texas appointment to off to the north of the consensus but still farther south to

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0909 11pm

near Port Lavaca about 125 miles north of Corpus Christi and now they’ve moved it farther south still to near Corpus. That is fairly close to the consensus of the spaghetti track. Rather interesting that the two real outliers go to the Florida Panhandle but I don’t think that is any thing to get alarmed about.

I wouldnt get married to this track just yet though. The models just this morning were all agreeing on Houston and then started shifting on the 18Z run. The GFS at 00Z was at New Orleans, at 12 Z was at Houston, at 18Z was at Brownsville and now the 00Z run it seems to have settled on Brownsville. What’s going on is that the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0909 00Z

ridge stays strong, runs the storm west and then there is some sense of the big pile of cold air that I’ve been talking about the models trying to bring down for a week, finally just blows it into the lower 48. But the time it does, the storm is so far west that it gets shoved west, even southwest into Mexico as the big Canadian high builds in. Again…let’s see if the pattern holds for another day or so. I still think that its going to be a formidable storm. About half of the models on the spaghetti intensity graph go for a cat 3 or higher. If its a big bopper, the best place in perhaps the entire United States is between Corpus and Brownsville in, I believe, Kennedy County. Its the King Ranch. More cows than people. Padre Island is a National Seashore at that point so there is zero development on the barrier island. Seems like a good place and the current over pattern prog would support something like that. Nevertheless, I saw a couple of models earlier today that took it toward Corpus and then due north to Houston. But, as i said, lets see if it lasts. During the change in seasons, the models can flip and flop as we have already seen. Still a long way out…Its not even in the Gulf yet. Confidence in the forecast from the NHC seems marginal. They are hinting that it could be stronger than advertised and keep the door open on the forecast track.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL

092008 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE’S EYE INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT…BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE. SINCE THE INNER CORE APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING…SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. AFTER IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE’S CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE…BUT WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES. AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA…THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO…AND JUST OFFSHORE OF…THE COAST. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-5 DAYS…THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN…ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS…SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. I AM FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF…WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS…WOULD NOT HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS A GLOBAL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS…IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 21.8N 80.8W 70 KT

12HR VT 09/1200Z 22.4N 82.3W 80 KT

24HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.0W 85 KT

36HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.7W 90 KT

48HR VT 11/0000Z 24.8N 87.2W 95 KT

72HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 91.0W 100 KT

96HR VT 13/0000Z 27.0N 94.5W 100 KT

120HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 95 KT…INLAND

$$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Another Colonel Klink Moment? Hurricane Ike Trying to Repeat History? September 8, 2008

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0908 1745Z

Hurricane Ike Rainbow IR Satellite 0908 1745Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

Several days ago I suggested that Hurricane Ike might decide to move just off the southern Communist Cuban coast and then I relented as I mentioned that the boys at the NHC didn’t like my great idea too much. Well, it may be time to break out Colonel Klink for another “I Told You So” moment. Notice how I don’t advertise when my great ideas go into the tank? See…it’s the old Jackson Browne strategy. “Forget About the Losses; Exaggerate the Wins.” In any event, it looks like Ike will be emerging over the Caribbean…though barely. The biggest significance of this turn of events is that the storm will be back over water and its structure will not be subject to 36 hours

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0908 11AM

worth of disruption by land. Provided it does not wobble or start more west-northwest ahead of schedule, it will have its core back over water, then over the relatively flat western tip of Cuba…the way Ike is going though maybe it will manage to miss the rest of Cuba. Anyway, the intensity has always been of a concern and now that concern may be increased. Don’t be too encouraged by the Spaghetti intensity graph that shows several models have dropped since the last run. That may be more indicative of the initialization over Cuba and weaker initial intensity than anything else.

The track of the storm still has some variables. This is the deal. We’ve had from time to time the models showing a big trof digging down far enough to turn Ike north. First it was one to turn it toward Florida. Then it was one that would turn it to New Orleans. In my view, there is a pile of cold air trying to come down. But

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0908 12Z

there are so many fronts coming across the nation in such rapidity that they are not allowing the cold air/strong trof to come down. The trof coming through Louisville on Tuesday may be a shade more worthwhile than thought a day or so ago but nothing like it was a week ago. The trof on Friday looked like to me Sunday night that the front wouldn’t even come through here and the analysis of Young Mr. LIncoln this morning confirms my analysis. What this means is that there really isn’t anything beyond the Coriolis force to cause Hurricane Ike to turn dramatically. Now, its tough for a ridge this time of year to be so strong as to keep the storm moving due west so there will be some curving. The spaghetti

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0908 1745Z

models have come into a pretty tight pattern suggesting a gentle turn with it

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probabilty Table 0908 11AM

 ending up a couple of hundred miles SSW of the central Louisiana coast. The track seems reasonable and the SE Texas coast seems like a decent bet. I have some personal concerns about the intensity. It would be unusual for a storm to be a big bopper, get its circulation messed up and then regain its former glory. But, it’s not impossible and there are always exceptions to the rules. In case you missed it in the prior post. Houston is the 4 largest city in the nation. The metro area has over 5.5 million people and the Port of Houston is one of the busiest and largest in the world. A large chunk of the nations refining capacity is within 50 miles of downtown Houston with most of those refineries along the 44 mile Houston Ship Channel that extends south of the city to Galveston. There is also an enormous petro-chemical base there. Throw in the offshore rigs and you have potential problems. With all of that in mind, here is a rather sobering this date in history. The greatest natural disaster in United States history. The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Ike follows.

On This Date in History: On September 8, 1900 Galveston, Texas in many regards ceased to exist. A hurricane slammed into the island and it changed history. It was the greatest disaster in US history as the death toll ranges between 6,000 and 12,000. The exact number will never be known. There are a couple of good books on the subject, the most recent being Isaac’s Storm. It got that moniker because the man in charge of the National Weather Bureau in Galveston was a man named Isaac Cline. The NWB had issued advisories on the storm and said it was moving up the East Coast. But Cline was making observations and taking observations from ships coming into port. From this he concluded that he had a major hurricane heading toward Galveston.

Now much of the history is based on Cline’s later report but it has come under some criticism and scrutiny. Cline reported the weather was great the day before but he rode his white horse in vain up and down the beach warning people of impending doom. This is one of the items that some now question. In any event, the storm did hit at night. Galveston had had storms in the past. They called them a “big blow.” Water began filling the streets but some observers noted the water was salt water. Cline knew the storm surge had covered the island. Houses floated by with people inside. Galveston homes had slate roofs to prevent the spread of fire. The bits of slate chipped off in the high winds and became bullets, cutting down people as they tried to get shelter. It was a terrible situation. The bridges and ferries were long before the height of the storm cut off by the high tide and there was no escape for anyone.

There are many tragic tales, including the death of Cline’s wife, whom he identified weeks later by her wedding ring. Also, the St. Mary’s Orphanage totally collapsed killing almost all of the nuns and children. I think one or two kids survived in a tree. The nuns had tied a rope to the children. The next day in the sand, they found a hand sticking up with a rope around the wrist. As they pulled up the rope, they found a nun with a string of children still attached.

In 1900, Galveston was the “Wall Street of the South.” It was the financial center of the South and the largest city in Texas with about 50,000 inhabitants. Perhaps 1/4 of the population died that night. Galveston was the second busiest port in the country. After the storm, the Houston Ship Channel was built as the first public(Federal)/private financed public works project in the nation, which is now quite common. The Army Corps of Engineers literally raised the entire island up to 15 feet. Structures that remained in tact had their bottom floors filled in or they were lifted. A great 15 foot seawall was built to protect the city and it has done so ever since, though much of the beachfront is lost.

By 1970, Houston had become the largest city in Texas, the 4th largest city in the nation, the second busiest port in the world and one of the financial and corporate centers of the country. Galveston still had 50,000 people. Today it has about 60,000, its glorious past lost to its now sprawling neighbor to the north, all because of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900. Everything Galveston was at the turn of the 20th Century, Houston became and more in just 70 years.

One of the first news reels came out of the storm as Thomas Edison sent a film crew to record the devastation. Here are some links with other pictures that include some of the ones above. Other storms have devastated the US coast, in Florida and New England and most recently with Camille in 1969 and Katrina in 2005. I can tell you, it will happen again and all of the government in the world cannot stop it.

http://www.1900storm.com/photographs/index.lasso

http://www.noaa.gov/galveston1900/

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/forcesofnature/forces/h_img_2_1.html

 

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

 

DESPITE IKE’S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO…THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON. IF THIS MATERIALIZES…IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN…AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS…IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW…AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. CUBAN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/12. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL SOON TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH…AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER…MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY…IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.1N 78.5W 85 KT

12HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 80.2W 75 KT

24HR VT 09/1200Z 22.2N 82.2W 75 KT

36HR VT 10/0000Z 23.1N 83.8W 70 KT

48HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.1W 80 KT

72HR VT 11/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W 95 KT

96HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT

120HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 93.5W 100 KT

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

Hurricane Ike-This Week’s Top Story September 8, 2008

Hurricane Ike non-enhanced IR Satellite Image 0908 0145Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite image 0908 0115 Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

You can bet that Hurricane Ike will be at the top of the news this week, ,unless the national news picks up on Senator Obama’s reference to his “muslim faith” (oops!…but be careful….be fair…these videos cut off awfully fast so you don’t see the rest of the clip) on ABC’s This Week, in which case it may fall to second on the list…but not at the end of the week. Not even the Presidential election will knock Ike off the top. In any event, Hurricane Ike will emerge off of the Communist island of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of shape. Ike made landfall on Northeastern Cuba at 9:45 pm EDT. The satellite images shown are from about the time of landfall. About half of the models want to take it to Cat 3 or above while the other half weaken it to between Cat 1 and Cat 2. To have a big storm get ripped up and disrupted by land and then regain its former ferocity

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0907 11pm

would be rather unusual, but not impossible. First there is the question of how long it stays over Cuba or if it wobbles back over water. Then the timing would have to be perfect and the environment in which it moves into would have to be perfect and there would have to be sufficient time for redevelopment. I think that the only certainty of these three would be the time as it should enjoy several days roaming the Gulf of Mexico. But…where does it go? That’s where there remains a great divergence. Oh, not so much in the near term. There is a strong consensus of it getting to central Gulf. But after that the big question arises.

The 18Z GFS continues to insist on a Galveston/Houston landfall. The ECMWF 12Z liked Brownsville. The NOGAPS 18Z is a bit different than the 12Z version in that it takes it to New Orleans but instead of running it due east along the Gulf Coast, it takes it inland. I’ve seen

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0908 00Z

another model that makes it look like its going to Houston and suddenly turns it to the northeast toward SW Louisiana, with a landfall similar to Audrey which I believe was in 1957. All of this hinges on the ridge steering the storm. All week long we have a series of trofs running across the lower 48. We had thought that there would be a strong one on Tuesday. That didn’t materialize too much….so it was Friday. Now, that looks like it too gets hung up, which is why the general forecast is toward the west northwest with the ridge not breaking down. There are some indications that perhaps the Tuesday trof would break down the ridge enough to turn the storm toward New Orleans, thus, the NOGAPS solution. There are those who suggest a break down by the Friday trof, thus the upper Texas coast scenario. Then there

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0908 00Z

are those that do not break the ridge at all but instead run it more westerly toward

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0907 11pm

South Texas. The NHC has chosen the consensus but admits that the intensity and track after a few days is very difficult at this juncture. What else is new. But, I will tell you….if they have this one nailed like they did with Gustav so many days before, then you are talking about a major hurricane potentially hitting the nations 4th largest city with a metro population of over 5.5 million people as well as an area that represents a large part of the nations petrochemical and oil refining capacity…not to mention all of those off shore installations. Stay tuned.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA. SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS…WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING….HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

All About Hurricane Ike September 5, 2008

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike and Hanna, CLICK HERE

I’m dispensing with Hanna. If you want to find something about Hanna, look to the previous post. This is devoted to Hurricane Ike which, in my view, is the far more threatening storm, though it’s probably not a good idea for East Coast residents to not just blow off the storm completely.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11pm 0904

I was snooping about looking at some models regarding Hurricane Ike. The NHC

I Still Like Ike and Thats Not Good

mentions them both, among others. The 12Z GFS wants to take Ike and turn it out to sea, before getting to the US coastline by turning it in the Bahamas and then north and northeast. The 12Z ECMWF wants to take it across Cuba, into the Gulf and then ultimately to the mouth of the Mississippi River. What is interesting to me about this are two things. One is that the GFS took forever to even recognize that Gustav existed when it was blowing and going. So I wonder about its value, though it clearly has picked up on Ike.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0905 00Z

The ECMWF was the first model to indicate a turn a few days ago. The official forecast had the storm heading toward the Florida Straits with many models taking a route across Cuba and into the Gulf. Now, its the ECMWF

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0905 00Z

that has flip flopped and now is going along with the Cuba solution and become quite ominous with a track toward New Orleans. The National Hurricane Center has chosen a track in between the extremes, which is not unusual this many days out, and takes an ominous track toward Miami.

Here’s the two schools of thought as computers think. One is that the big front coming across the country will be fast enough and deep enough to catch Ike in the

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0904 11PM

flow and turn it. If Ike is late or the front is fast and deep, then it catches Ike and turns it away before it gets to land. The other idea would be that Ike is too slow or the front too fast and the trof misses it….or the trof is not deep enough and misses it. In that scenario, Ike gets caught up in a building ridge and it goes farther west. In examining the GFS, what seemed odd to me was that it had the front coming fast, the trof coming and going and then turned the storm when it looked to me as if the trof was well into lifting out. Seems tough to me to have the storm turn that sharply when the trof had already gone by. Here’s something to consider. If you look at the Intensity Probability Table at the left, you will note that on the out periods, the highest probability is for a Cat 3 storm. The Cat 4 probability is the second highest….just something to consider.

So…there are many variables, as usual. Options are still on the table and it will remain to be seen how the environment changes or what environment Ike finds when it gets to the Bahamas. Hurricane Ike is getting close enough for the Hurricane Hunters to begin reconnaissance flights tomorrow.

Here is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Hurricane Ike.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE REMAINS A SMALL…BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE… BUT THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…AS THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE. DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR….THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST… WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO RE-STRENGTHEN. IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12… HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS…TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER…IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES…THE GFS…NOGAPS…AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS….WHILE THE HWRF…GFDL…AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL… THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM…CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A REMINDER…4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.6N 59.5W 115 KT 12HR VT

05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W 105 KT 24HR VT

06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W 95 KT 36HR VT

06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W 95 KT 48HR VT

07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W 100 KT 72HR VT

08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W 105 KT 96HR VT

09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 110 KT 120HR VT

10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W 110 KT $$

FORECASTER BROWN