Typhoon Megi Slated For 2nd Landfall in East China; Taiwan not totally out of woods October 21, 2010

Note Typhoon Megi ragged, off-center eye at 18:30Z 10.21.10 on West Pacific Rainbow IR image (click for most recent loop)

Typhoon Megi JTWC Forecast Track 10.21.10

Typhoon Megi:  4 days ago, prior to then Super Typhoon Megi’s landfall on the Philippines, I had mentioned in my long term analysis that “… if the trof is fast and very deep, it could conceivably turn the storm north and then northeast.  While there may not be sufficient room in the sea for this to occur without striking land, that scenario would put Taiwan at risk of a hit from the Southwest…”  At the time, the forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center called for the storm to track well to the Southwest of Hong Kong, perhaps toward the South China island of Hainan.  As it turns out the trof that was expected to turn the storm northwest was, in fact, deeper than forecast and Typhoon Megi turned North-Northwest not long after it emerged in the South China Sea. 

Typhoon Megi Visible Satellite 10.21.10

The damage from then Super Typhoon Megi to thePhilippines was largely to agricultural concerns. (Image Gallery) While the current agricultural outlook for the Philippines is stable, longer term consequences could result.  The loss of life was limited, considering that prior to landfall Megi had hit nearly 167 kts (190 mph) sustained winds with gusts to 220 mph.  It weakened a shade at landfall but was still an extremely strong super typhoon.  But, it moved across the island at a steady clip and had its greatest impact on less populated parts of the nation so flooding and loss of life was limited.

10.21.10 TPW image clearly shows Typhoon Megi nearing the Taiwan Strait (click for real time previous 72 hour loop)

Map of South China and Vicinity

At 15 UTC (Z) October 21, 2010 Typhoon Megi was about 250 nm southeast of Hong Kong moving North-Northeast at just 4 kts.  The trof in Southeast Asia dug so deep that it created a contraction in the steering ridge over the Western Pacific and the storm is now moving around the periphery of that ridge.  It is moving into cooler water which will hamper any further development but its got such a good outflow to the North that the decreasing intensity trend will be slower than what might otherwise occur.  Nevertheless, as it interacts with southwesterly flow aloft as it runs up along the trof to the northeast, it will begin to get ripped apart.  As I had mentioned a few days ago, if it weren’t for land getting in the way, this guy may have been a threat to Taiwan but the Chinese coast should get into the way. 

Note 7 day rainfall total related to Typhoon Megi ending 15 UTC (Z) 10.21.10 From NASA TRMM

In all likelihood, China will experience a weakening typhoon making landfall across the Taiwan Strait from Taiwan somewhere in between Shantou and Xiamen.  It is possible that the winds may have fallen to below typhoon strength by then.  I would think that the greatest concern would be for flooding as the storm, while dissipating, will have the potential to bring very heavy rains and the flooding threat will increase should the remnant of Megi move at a snails pace, which is not uncommon for a dissipating tropical cyclone.  Still, it is not totally out of the question that this guy gets so caught up in the trof that it tracks a bit more northeast, as some models suggest.  Should that occur, then Taiwan may be under the threat of a dissipating tropical cyclone from the Southwest.  As it stands, the time frame of ultimate landfall would be about 6 UTC (Z) October 23, 2010 and I suspect that would be the case if it follows the current forecast track or if it wandered farther north or northeast.

Weather Bottom Line: Our weather is lame. Nice…but lame.  Highs in 70′s lows in 40s  tonight.  A rain chance does show up by the second half of the weekend, but we’ll talk about that tomorrow.  Only caveat is that we had a little boundary come through and cooler drier air will filter in taking us down into the 30′s in some spots.  Frost possible in some areas but if the breezes persist, it may not get as chilly as some may think and the wind would also tend to limit frost.

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast: Philippines Landfall as Volcano Threatens Eruption October 30, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae Will Stirke the Philippines

Typhoon Mirinae 23:13Z Oct 29 Vis with low level wind barbs

Typhoon Mirinae will hit the Luzon province in the Philippines.  It’s possible that Mother Nature may also erupt a volcano at the same time.  The Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track is very similar to that of Typhoon Ketsana.  The difference will be that it’s forward momentum will continue and therefore will not remain over the Philippines for an extended period of time. 

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track click for most recent map

The Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track takes it into the Philippines almost due east of Manila and it re-emerges in the South China Sea almost due west of Manila.  There is some sense of continuity with the computer models.  The NOGAPS calls for a landfall at just around 12Z October 30 as a tropical cyclone with a central pressure a shade less than 992 mb.  The NOGAPS suggests that the center of circulation will be just west of Manila by 06Z October 31 with a pressure of something less than 1000 mb.  Now, the GFS is a bit different as it wants to weaken the storm prior to landfall to less than 1000 mb and has it exit as a 1004 mb low.  It too calls for a landfall in the neighborhood of 12Z October 30 with it moving offshore west of Manila by 6Z October 31.  A few days later, Mirinae is forecast to weaken somewhat over colder water in the South China Sea before making a second landfall in Vietnam before moving into Cambodia.   

Watch 72hr loop of Total Precipitable Water Showing Movement of Typhoon Mirinae

The official forecast track as of 00Z October 30 from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center calls for Typhoon Mirinae to make landfall east of Manila sometime between 12z and 18Z on October 30 and has it offshore of Manila by about 02Z October 31.  Other models must call for the faster speed as the NOGAPS and GFS call for the storm to be over land for about 18 hours whereas the boys at the JTWC are thinking more along the lines of 12 hours.  The folks in the Philippines will be hoping that the JTWC is correct because the faster pace will reduce the time of heavy rain over the island.  Still, several hours of heavy rain will be in the cards and winds will initially be running around 90 kts (100 mph) at landfall with higher gusts.  The storm’s forward speed will also mean that typhoon strength winds will be felt by everyone in the path of the center of circulation because, though weakened, it will still be a minimal typhoon when it moves back offshore in all liklihood.  Over 100,000 Filipinos remain in evacuation shelters from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma which collectively killed over 900 people.  Many have been affected by the rapid spread of the disease known as Leptospirosis.  The government is warning for the potential for flooding and landslides so more people have been evacuated from vulnerable locations. 

Keep Up with latest 3 hour rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM

If that is not enough for the Philippines….as Typhoon Mirinae makes landfall, Mount Mayon in the Philippines is making noises and there is a fear that Mount Mayon, the most active volcano in the Philippines may erupt while Mirinae is over the island or shortly thereafter.    The active volcano is one of many volcanic peaks in the Philippines and has been responsible for well over a dozen volcanic earthquakes and has begun spewing ash and sulpher dioxide into the air.  It last had an ash eruption on September 15.  Officials have been trying to get a look at the crater to determine if the dome forming there is indeed a lava dome or if its simply a case of magma below the surface pushing old rock to the surface.  Trouble is, they can’t make aerial examinations of the crater on top of Mount Mayon due to cloud cover and with the advance of Typhoon Mirinae, which the Philippines weather authorities designated as Typhoon Santi (why they have different names is a mystery to me), they won’t be able to make any observations.  So, Philippines Volcano Monitoring authorities  issued a level 2 alert warning the residents around the volcano and are enforcing a strict ban on people entering a zone around Mayon. 

Mayon one of many volcanoes in the Philippines

If they issue a  level 3 alert, then some 30,000 residents around the volcano will have to be evacuated.  There is great concern here because Mayon’s crater holds over 200,000 cubic feet of rocks.  There is fear of an eruption with lava flows.  Even of greater concern is the threat of a Lahar,the fast moving flow of mud, water and perhaps lava that can sweep down from volcanoes.  Heavy rains may enhance that threat and official say that in a worst  case scenario, they may have to evacuate some 300,000 people from Lahar zones.   However, Mount Mayon is pretty far south of the forecast landfall location.  Should Mirinae make landfall as the JTWC suggests, then the greatest rainfall should be well north of Mount Mayon.

WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON MIRINAE HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUSTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. 
THOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD BLOWING CONVECTION, 
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SMALL 
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT HAS ENABLED CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW. WHILE 
MIRINAE WAS PREVIOUSLY MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN 
THAT MADE POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT, 
IT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO DEVELOP MORE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. 
THEREFORE, IN COMBINATION WITH THE 292259Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE, THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
SIMILARLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES OF 90 KNOTS. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. 
    B. TYPHOON MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 18 
AND SLOW SLIGHTLY (BY APPROXIMATELY 2-3 KNOTS) IN FORWARD TRACK 
SPEED WHILE DECREASING BY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 24, 
MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON A WESTWARD TRACK 
AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY 
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF 
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (MID-LEVELS) AND 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE.
    C. MIRINAE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST 
AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HOWEVER, SOME OF 
THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING THE JAPANESE SOLUTION, TAKE THE SYSTEM 
JUST SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES AND TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY, 
VIETNAM.//
NNNN

Former Typhoon Parma Tracking Away from Philippines Leaving Flooding and Over 100 Dead October 9, 2009

Parma Finally Exiting Philippines click image for latest loop

For update, photos and video and rising Typhoon Parma Philippines death toll, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track

The former Typhoon Parma Forecast Track is finally good news for Filipinos. (JTWC Discussion) The storm made landfall several days ago on the eastern coast of the northern Philippines causing flooding and more than a dozen deaths on top of the flooding and nearly 300 deaths brought less than a week before by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  It then drifted to the northwest of the island into the Luzon Strait.  About a week ago, I mentioned the possibility of further devastation from Parma as I had feared it would get caught in the flow of the bypassing Typhoon Melor.  It did that and for the last 3 days, it has been lurking over the islands.  It weakened on Wednesday but slipped just off the east coast and we noted here that the convection seemed to be blowing up again over the island just following the center’s emergence back over the ocean.  It wasn’t far off the coast, but far enough. 

7 Day Rain Totals NASA TRMM

Parma spent Thursday moving back to the west over the island and is now moving into the South China Sea and will continue to do so, regaining some strength to tropical storm status before moving into Vietnam in a few days. This is almost a certainty because high pressure is building in from China and it has to drive it that way and keep it moving.  But, Parma left its mark.  In the previous post, I noted that 6 had been killed in landslides.  The landslides in the mountainous areas increased and now the death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Parma is over 100.  Many of the deaths were in Benguet Province.  Some 30 towns in Pangasinan  Province were flooded.  Many areas that were trying to begin recovery from Ketsana’s flooding are now under water again.  To the left is the NASA TRMM satellite depiction of the rain fall in the world wide tropical regions over the past 7 days. Note the heavy rain over the Philippines from Parma and Japan from Typhoon Melor.

Parma Satellite 2330Z 10.08.09

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 046   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z — NEAR 16.6N 120.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 120.0E
    —
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z — 16.6N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    —
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z — 16.8N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z — 17.0N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z — 17.3N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z — 18.0N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    —
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z — 18.2N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    —
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z — 17.4N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 119.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS
THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY
TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.