Dumb Tales of Pot Smokers and Bungee Jumpers October 22, 2009

We have all become somewhat accustomed to going through security metal detectors or submitting items to go through an x-ray machine at airports and many public buildings.  Typically, before you walk through the metal detector, you are asked to empty your pockets into a  tray or bowl that is then put through an x-ray machine.  Well, this guy in Abilene, Texas went to the Taylor County Courthouse to visit a friend who had been arrested.  Before going through the metal detector, he emptied his pockets.  Shortly thereafter, he was put in jail.  You see…the man put a bag of marijuana into the bowl and handed it over to the sheriff’s deputies.   Lesson here is that, if you are a dope smoker, make sure to empty your pockets before you go visit the courthouse.

Pretty Scene and Pretty Nuts

On This Date in History:  Bungee jumping has become rather popular.  You even see set ups at county and state fairs. Some people have gotten rather daring.  This video of guy who grabbed a bunged cord with his hands, lept several hundred feet and let go just as his feet hit the ground is a good example of how people try to enhance the experience.   It can be dangerous and hoaxers have taken advantage of this fact.   This Spike TV phoney video shows a bungee jumper getting his head bitten off by a crocodile.  However, there have been a number of harrowing true experiences, like this video from Thailand of a man who lept 165 feet only to have the bungee cord break.   None of this should be a surprise because we have a lesson from the past.

The Great Peters Really Did Lose His Mind and his Head

Aloys Peters used to do a performance in the circus in which he dove from a platform 75 feet high with a noose around his neck.  Like the guy who let go of the bungee cord at just the right moment, Peters would grab the rope seconds before it tightened.  His powerful arms and the ropes elasticity would absorb the shock.  He did the act for about 12 years, but that was it.  He was forced into permanent retirement.  On this date in 1943, The Great Peters lept from his 75 foot perch at the Fireman’s Wild West Rodeo and Thrill Circus in St. Louis.  Peters made some sort of mistake because before he could grasph the rope, it tightened violently and his neck snapped before 5600 spectators.  His wife Catherine had not missed a show during their 3 years of marriage but opted out of this performance as she rested due to her pregnancy.  Lesson here?  Keep your  feet on the ground.

NAM Rainfall through Friday 8AM

Weather Bottom Line:  Weather story remains the same.  There is a little bit of a dispute between computer  models as the NAM wants to bring us a little more than 1.75 inches of rain starting on Thursday night and carrying through Saturday morning with over 1.5 inches falling by midday Friday.  The GFS advertises less than an inch of rain through Saturday morning with the bulk of that Thursday night and early Friday morning.  So, if we say 1-2 inches of rain from say, midnight Thursday to noon on Saturday we will be in the ballpark.  Most of the weekend will be dry but cooler with highs in the 50′s.  First part of next week looks lovely with highs in the low to mid 60′s.

Real Independence Only Half Captured; A Cold Story January 14, 2009

 On This Date in History: The independence of this nation was finally ratified on January 14, 1784. The Battle of Yorktown was fought in 1781. The Colonial Army, under General George Washington combined with French forces under General Rochambeau, boxed the British Army in at Yorktown with the French Navy blocking their retreat in the Chesapeake Bay. British General Lord Cornwallis surrendered and the war was over. But, it took until November of 1783 for a final treaty to be signed. This was called the Second Treaty of Paris because there had already been a Treaty of Paris to end the 7 years war. The painting above by Benjamin West was supposed to be of the signing ceremony…but its unfinished because the sore loser British delegation refused to show up and pose. So, its the most famous unfinished painting in history. It wasn’t until this date in 1784 that the treaty was ratified by the United States Congress.

So even though we declared independence in 1776 and finished off the crown in 1781 and a treaty was signed in late 1783 and the last British troops finally left shortly thereafter, Congress didn’t get around to putting the official stamp on the end of hostilities until January of 1784…and Congress has been dragging its feet ever since.

 

GFS Snow Total Thru Midday Sunday

Even The NAM Fri AM near 0

Weather Bottom Line: One of my regular viewers, Eric, claims that I am out on a limb by myself regarding the duration of the cold spell.  I would say that my limb is getting larger and that others will join.  In fact, I saw one outlet that changed their weekend forecast to keep us at or below freezing.  It will be interesting to see if we get above freezing for a time on Wednesday.  I’m not buying it and the 18Z NAM is even only going to 33 or so.  I say nyet.  Won’t really matter though because if we do, it won’t last and will be largely an academic because the mercury will fall rapidly thereafter.   I’m looking at the 18Z Tue WRF and it even has the 540 Thickness line way out to our West and way South at 6Z Saturday.  Even though that there is another strong short wave diving down through the flow, I suggest that even with this model that has been the warmest outlyer, it will be difficult for that 540 line to get to our north or east. 

NAM Midday Fri less than 15

Now, the previously mentioned short wave diving down, I suspect that will represent our best chance for some decent snow for Sunday or so.  It’s too far out to say with any certainty but right now the 12Z ECMWF wants to to take the surface low almost right over the top of Louisville. Typically, the best snow would be to the north of the system so that’s pretty close.  Now, the CMC and the GFS prefers to keep the parent low well to the north with upper support swinging through over us.  That scenario would squeeze out some flurries or light snow but nice accumulations I would think would not be likely.  The GFS is actually advertising another short through the flow for Monday or Tuesday that would bring another chance for snow. 

NAM Fri Eve Still Below 15

So, the song remains the same…several opportunities for light snow from time to time but really nothing huge.  The story is the cold.  There is some indication that the big ridge out west will not really move but instead broaden in breadth.  This is the first indication that I have seen for a change and would mean warming conditions by next Wednesday.  I still think snow will be minimal. I had previously suggested 1-2 inches maybe at best over 84 hours with never that much on the ground.  Well, Monday night the temps were generally above freezing during the best precip, which wasn’t much.  Temperatures were in the 20′s by midday but only a few flurries fell.  So, the moisture will be limited ,the tracks of the clippers will most likely be too far north and we therefore can expect the cold to be the story.  Still think a low close to zero with some perhaps below zero on Friday morning…teens Thursday and Friday will be the best we can do…some folks perhaps in the low to mid teens.

A Brush With Success and a Brush with Snow January 7, 2009

Red Skelton Starred in "The Fuller Brush Man" The Epitome of Product Placement

Big Bad Wolf Was Unsuccessful Fuller Brush Man

On This Date in History: In January 1885, Alfred G. Fuller was born in Nova Scotia. He was the 11th of 12 children  and picked berries as a youngster for a penny a quart for a “neighbor” 3 miles away. He could earn as much as 30 cents in 12 hours.  He left home at the age of 18 and sought his fortune in Boston.  He was a rather shy young man but still took to the unlikely job of selling brushes.  Customers, being as they are, had complaints and often made suggestions regarding improvements to the brushes that he sold.  On this date in 1906, Fuller invested $65 (another source says $375) in equipment so that he might make improvements to his brushes.  He modified some items that he had in stock and even created some new brushes of his own design, based largely on the desires of the customers.  What a novel approach?  By creating brushes that people would buy instead of trying to get people to like the brushes that he had, Fuller began quite an enterprise.  Within a few years, Fuller had salesmen all over the country knocking on doors in neighborhoods using Fuller’s techniques of getting people to open their door to a salesman.  He based his sales organization on the principals he learned picking berries with his sales force working strictly on commission.  Fuller explained that if he had worked picking berries on an hourly wage, he would have eaten the profits.  I remember the “Fullerbrush Man” coming to our door quite often.  Alfred Fuller died in 1973 and by that time, you were more likely to find a “Fullerette” at your door rather than a “Fullerbrush Man.” 

Lucille Ball Starred As "The Fuller Brush Girl"

Part of Fuller’s success came from advertising.  At first he placed a want ad in the newspaper for salesman in Everbody’s Magazine and had thousands of responses.  So, he had a salesforce of about 270 but he needed to something more.  Way before anyone was using product placement in movies,  Fuller encouraged the use of his brand and one of his biggest early successes came when Donald Duck played the role of a “Fullerbrush Man” in a Disney Short.  Then Walt Disney had the Big Bad Wolf pose as a “Fullerbrush Man” in his version of The Three Little Pigs.  Soon,  the “Fullerbrush Man” was a household name and was welcome into the homes of millions of Americans…sorta  an early part of Americana.  In 1919, his company earned $1 million.  By 1960, his annual earnings grew to over $100 million.   (An unofficial company history)

He once read a biography of himself that said he had been fired from his first three jobs so he

Fuller Cross Promoted To The End as an Author

went into business for himself.  I’m not sure if that part is true or not, but Fuller remarked after reading that, “I guess its self-evident of why I became self-employed. I had no choice.”    Perhaps that is something for me to consider.  And what about the Fuller Brush Company?   It’s still in business, ready for the 21st century as you can now shop on-line, though I suppose you’ll miss out on the “Fullerettes.”  But, it just goes to show how humble beginnings can lead to big things from the dawn of one century, through a century of great techonological and cultural change into the modern time.  Alfred Fuller based his business on personal relationships and trust of his employees.  Perhaps it is for this reason that the Fuller Brush Company has survived when others have gone the way of the Enron.

GFS Calls For a Little Snow

Weather Bottom Line:

  Well, it looks like the computers are sticking to their stories.  The GFS and Canadian still want to turn our rain over to some light snow on Wednesday and perhaps some flurries on Thursday but nothing overly exciting though if it

NAM Calls For Almost Nothing

does happen, it would be during rush hour in the morning.  The ECMWF and UKMET also are on board with this solution.  All four are pretty cold by late Wednesday as well.  But, the NAM continues to want to really wind down the precipitation and by the time that it gets cold enough around here for snow, by then the NAM doesn’t have any precipitation at all.  It also does not drag down as much cold air.  I suspect that the NAM will end up being the odd man out but because it has such a small grid at this point, I would think that the snow amounts will be less than the bullish models suggest and probably not as cold.  I don’t want to speak for them but, my guess is that this is why the National Weather Service is only advertising a 60% chance for rain and or snow on Tuesday night and just 30% chance for snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Regardless….don’t get yourself all worked up for a snow storm cause we ain’t gettin one now and don’t look for any warm up any time soon.

Still Not Enthused About Snow December 1, 2008

There are a couple of things that seem consistent regarding snow fall. First off, it never seems to be a clear

NAM Monday AM Sfc

1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM1

cut case around here.  I’ve invented an idea that the same reason that Louisville is difficult to define culturally and geographically is the same reason that we are often on the edge of the winter stuff.  We’re sorta in between everything.  The other thing that seems to be a constant is that the first threat of snow in the area for a given season always creates a bunch of hub-bub, often that is not warranted.  Most of the time, the first snow would be a ho-hum event if it were in January or February but since it’s early on, then you get all sorts of wild predictions.

1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM

In this case, we’ve been pretty consistent as we tend to let the data dictate our

NAM Snow Totals Thru Tue

course rather than creating a headline and try to make the data fit the headline.    As I’ve said previously, we’ve had a consistent pattern of data with temperatures near the surface just too doggone warm.  Just about every indication is that we will not get to freezing overnight and will stay in the upper 30′s…maybe even 40 during the day on Monday.  It is awfully tough to have accumulating snow with ground temperatures above freezing. If it snowed hard enough you might get some accumulation on grassy areas but there is nothing to indicate such a heavy event.  The GFS continues to be the most bullish and even it has temperatures near the surface above freezing until about 10 pm on Monday night.  If we have accumulation, it would seem to me that it would be on Monday night and it would be in the .25″ to .50″ range.  If the roads are wet on Monday night, which they may be, then we may have some slick spots Tuesday morning.

WRF Snow Total Thru Tue AM

I know there are reports of predictions of “up to an inch” out there…but what does that mean?  If you get zero then the forecast is right.  While we may have recorded snow fall on Monday, I really doubt if there will be any accumulations.  As I said, its tough to do it when the temperatures on Sunday were in the mid 40′s and the air temperatures dont get below freezing until Monday night.  I don’t see how the ground can get to freezing.  The extreme northern and northeastern part of the viewing area will be more susceptable to accumulations but, again, it seems to me to be Monday night.  The forecast soundings out of Madison, IN aren’t much different than in Louisville. The accompanying graphics also support what I am saying.  The areas of pink on the snow total maps do not take into consideration the ground temperatures.

Its going to be cold this week except for a brief period in the 50′s on Wednesday.  Perhaps some other chances for nuisance light snow from time to time…but that’s about it. Keep your chin up though…winter hasn’t even started.  I want a big snow…remember, I’m from Texas so I want lots of snow..but this is not the time.  Kids…you’re going to school!

Keep the Snowshoes in the Closet and Learn How to Fish For Worms November 14, 2008

Rain Total Forecast Friday Night

NAM 00Z Sun Precip

Really, nothing has changed much from the previous post. I’m using the 00Z Friday NAM

NAM 6Z Sun Precip

to illustrate. If you look at the 00Z Sunday run time frame, you see the bullet point for precip but when you look at the surface temperature, its above freezing. The extrapolated data indicates 37.1 degrees and also shows the bottom 50 mb or so to be above freezing. That’s a problem. 6 hours later, we’re a shade above freezing at the surface and below freezing from 50 mb down. But, the precip is largely gone. The air aloft will be getting colder so it will squeeze out whatever moisture there is. The ground will probably be too warm as well. In short, look for a lousy weekend. Rain and a few t’storms Friday night (maybe that will help the cards) with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40′s on

NAM 00Z Sun SFC Temps

Saturday afternoon. Showers moving back in Saturday night turning to perhaps some

NAM 6Z Sun SFC Temps

flurries. No accumulations. Then Sunday the clouds decrease late on Sunday but highs only make it to the low 40′s. A tad warmer on Monday in advance of another cold front with decidedly colder air behind it. 40 may be a struggle on Tuesday. In other words, nothing has really changed. Any snow on Saturday night will be insignificant except as a conversation piece and as we’ve been advertising for 3 days now, even colder air for Tuesday.

Fishing For Worms

A Nutty and somewhat disgusting This Date in History:

I guess in the 19th Century the tapeworm was a problem in the United States. The tapeworm is relatively

Figure 1

common in the 21st century in Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. It comes about because of poor hygiene or undercooked meat. It’s really pretty nasty as it lives in one’s intestine and the only real clue that one has it is when it appears…use your imagination of how that happens. From what I have read, there really isn’t a symptom of weight loss. Anyway…so there may have been a problem of tapeworms in 19th Century America. Along comes American ingenuity, which isn’t always so great.

Dr. Alpheus Myers was a doctor in Logansport, Indiana and he came up with a “cure.” He called it a “tapeworm trap” and he received a patent(read details here) for it on this date in 1854. His invention was one that involved no surgical procedure or medicines. All a patient had to do was swallow a capsule

figure 2

of sorts that had bait inside it. Not sure what he used for “bait.” The patent said, “any nutritious substance.” Wonder if a Twinke would work? The capsule was attached to a string and the patient swallowed it “for a suitable duration to make the worm hungry.” What does that mean? An hour? A week? Someone was expected to walk around with a string hanging from his mouth waiting for the worm to get hungry. The worm was then expected to “seize the bait” at which time the trap catches its head in the trap. The string is then pulled out of the patients mouth and the head and entire length of the worm soon follows. I have no idea when one knows he’s caught a worm…does it tug on the line? Can you use a bobber?

If you try this at home, make sure that “in constructing the trap, care should be taken that the spring is only strong enough to hold the worm, and not strong enough to cause his head to be cut off.”

I’ll make a note of that.

Supreme Court Justice Arrested, Still Looking for Fay and Northwest Passage Opens August 14, 2008

For the latest on Tropical Storm Fay, click here

If you are looking for the tropical stuff, look at the bottom. If you are looking for rain, look somewhere else than Louisville. Except for an errant shower on Thursday(be thankful if you get a shower), we will stay dry through the weekend with temperatures around seasonal averages and humidity levels slowly increasing but it’s still going to be pretty comfortable by Mid-August standards.

Arctic Ice Map

Arctic Sea Ice Still Melting: If you recall on these here pages we talked about the nitwit reporting about the possibility of the Arctic Ice melting and Santa Claus having to put on his swimming trunks.(Symon Sez-Just The Facts!) I ripped the AP reporter for grabbing a few statistics and putting them in the top of his story while burying the qualifiers and other opinions. At the time, I believe there was more sea ice up north than at that time last year. Well, the ice began melting pretty quickly in July, partly due to storms blowing in and breaking up the newest and thinnest ice. Like last year, the Northwest Passage is now open. But it’s pretty shallow so its not something that big ships can take. They take the more northern Parry Channel which remains clogged with ice. Last year, the Parry Channel opened up in mid-August and it’s possible that it may open again this year before the melting ends. Either way, it appears that Santa is safe. Why do I think that the AP will not run a story with a headline trumpeting the fact that the North Pole did not melt away. Here’s the complete story from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

National Snow and Ice Data Center Aug 11 report

On This Date In History: On this date in 1889, US Supreme Court Justice Stephen J. Field was arrested for murder making him the only member of that body ever arrested for such a crime. The story goes back to a divorce case in which Justice Field ruled that the marriage between Sarah Althea Hill and a wealthy mine owner was invalid and she therefore was not entitled to any portion of his wealth. And neither was her then current husband, David Terry, who like Field was a former California Supreme Court justice. The courtroom erupted into a brawl and Field ordered the couple jailed for contempt. The pair publically announced revenge on the Justice.

About a year later, Field and his bodyguard, US Marshal David Neagle, were riding on a train to San Francisco. Also on the train was Sarah and David Terry. At a stop in Stockton, California the Terrys spotted field in the station dining room. David went for Field while Sarah went back to the train. Dave slapped the Justice and Neagle pulled his revolver and told Dave to stop while identifying himself as an officer. David Terry started fumbling with his jacket. Neagle fatally shot David Terry as his wife came running up with a satchel holding a loaded gun. Neagle and Field were arrested on a murder charge.

California’s Governor ordered Field released and the case against Neagle ended up…in the US Supreme Court that ruled in a landmark decision that since Neagle was acting under federal authority, he could not be subject to California law. I suppose that is why no one ever asked the Texas justice system to charge the ATF agents with anything in the Waco/ Branch Davidian case several years ago. I suppose that Field probably recused himself from the case but it may be the only case in which a sitting Supreme Court Justice was actively involved in a situation that set a legal precedent.

12Z 08/13 NRL Track Invest 92L

So, What’s Up with the Tropics? Well, we’re still waiting on Fay to show itself. The NHC was so unimpressed with disturbance 92L that it cancelled the hurricane hunter for Wednesday. I suppose they are saving the taxpayers money on fuel costs. But, the satellite imagery looks fairly interesting and the intensity spaghetti model still has half of the 16 computers taking it at least to tropical storm level

Spaghetti Intensity 08/13

with a few going to the hurricane level as it moves into the Bahamas. The spaghetti tracks are all very similar but the other half of the intensity models are split with part taking it to tropical storm and back to depression status or keeping it as a depression or less. The other part take it to storm to depression and then back toward tropical storm status. The 18Z ETA was pretty bullish and makes it a hurricane in the Bahamas in 84

Spaghetti Track 08/13

hours. The GFS puts it in the same region as an open area of low pressure. I’ve attached all of the accompanying maps. BTW..the last two runs of the GFS wants to put a tropical cyclone of some intensity in the Gulf in two weeks….but we’re talking about two weeks and the rate of accuracy of models begins to deteriorate after two days, let alone two weeks. But, it will be fun to watch and see if that’s the case.

18Z NAM 08/13

18Z GFS 08/13 84 hours