There are a couple of things that seem consistent regarding snow fall. First off, it never seems to be a clear
NAM Monday AM Sfc
1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM1
cut case around here. I’ve invented an idea that the same reason that Louisville is difficult to define culturally and geographically is the same reason that we are often on the edge of the winter stuff. We’re sorta in between everything. The other thing that seems to be a constant is that the first threat of snow in the area for a given season always creates a bunch of hub-bub, often that is not warranted. Most of the time, the first snow would be a ho-hum event if it were in January or February but since it’s early on, then you get all sorts of wild predictions.
1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM
In this case, we’ve been pretty consistent as we tend to let the data dictate our
NAM Snow Totals Thru Tue
course rather than creating a headline and try to make the data fit the headline. As I’ve said previously, we’ve had a consistent pattern of data with temperatures near the surface just too doggone warm. Just about every indication is that we will not get to freezing overnight and will stay in the upper 30′s…maybe even 40 during the day on Monday. It is awfully tough to have accumulating snow with ground temperatures above freezing. If it snowed hard enough you might get some accumulation on grassy areas but there is nothing to indicate such a heavy event. The GFS continues to be the most bullish and even it has temperatures near the surface above freezing until about 10 pm on Monday night. If we have accumulation, it would seem to me that it would be on Monday night and it would be in the .25″ to .50″ range. If the roads are wet on Monday night, which they may be, then we may have some slick spots Tuesday morning.
WRF Snow Total Thru Tue AM
I know there are reports of predictions of “up to an inch” out there…but what does that mean? If you get zero then the forecast is right. While we may have recorded snow fall on Monday, I really doubt if there will be any accumulations. As I said, its tough to do it when the temperatures on Sunday were in the mid 40′s and the air temperatures dont get below freezing until Monday night. I don’t see how the ground can get to freezing. The extreme northern and northeastern part of the viewing area will be more susceptable to accumulations but, again, it seems to me to be Monday night. The forecast soundings out of Madison, IN aren’t much different than in Louisville. The accompanying graphics also support what I am saying. The areas of pink on the snow total maps do not take into consideration the ground temperatures.
Its going to be cold this week except for a brief period in the 50′s on Wednesday. Perhaps some other chances for nuisance light snow from time to time…but that’s about it. Keep your chin up though…winter hasn’t even started. I want a big snow…remember, I’m from Texas so I want lots of snow..but this is not the time. Kids…you’re going to school!
