for a more recent update on hurricane paloma CLICK HERE
Our forecast is on track. Look for cooler conditions on Friday and chilly conditions on Saturday as clouds wrap around and colder air filters in. The above map is the 12Z NAM depiction of Saturday evening. It has us around 50 but I still say we may be hard pressed to get out of the 40′s. Either way, its a lousy day and Sunday the sun should make an appearance but temperatures will still be a bit below average.
Tropical Storm Paloma: Paloma is behaving itself and doing as expected.That means that it morphed
from Tropical Depression 17 into Tropical Storm Paloma and will become Hurricane Paloma some time on Friday. It’s satellite presentation is looking pretty good. The National Hurricane Center has decided to go along with what some of yesterday’s outlying models were suggesting later making the storm reasonably formidable. But, they aren’t going out on a limb. If you look at today’s 18Z spaghetti model intensity graph, you note that several models have joined the party so the official forecast is more of consensus than long shot. It’s over a good environment of warm water and light winds aloft so fairly rapid intensification is forecast to near 90 kts (about 105 mph) in the next day or so and then it runs into the south-central coast of Cuba. There are some pretty decent mountains there to mess up the circulation. Further, it will encounter some strong westerly winds aloft that will help zip it quickly through the Bahamas and also serve to rip it apart. It is forecast to lose its tropical characteristics as it passes quickly Northeast through the Bahamas. It seems impossible for it to hit the US given that a big ole trof is moving across and will stand as a sentry along the east coast. If anything, I would think it may have a more easterly track but the official forecast goes along with the idea that it moves fast enough to avoid a more easterl coast that would bring problems to the hurricane season battered Haiti. The 4 PM EST National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Tropical Storm Paloma can be found at the bottom along with spaghetti models.
On This Date In History: The 19th Amendment to the Constitution that guaranteed women the right to vote was not ratified until August of 1920. However, on this date in 1916, Jeanette Rankin(bio) became the first woman elected to Congress. How does that work?
Well, western states were in a somewhat leadership position regarding suffragettes. Wyoming gave women the vote in 1869 when it was still a territory. Utah, Idaho and Colorado voted for the suffragettes by the turn of the century. One must remember, there is no such thing as a Federal Election. All elections are state or local. So, states can pass their own voting laws. Rankin was from Montana and after working in New York as a social worker and getting involved in the women’s suffrage movement. She moved home to Montana in 1914 because she believed that the western states offered the best opportunity to gain women’s suffrage due to their pioneering spirit that she thought gave more respect to women and their ability. She was right because shortly after she moved there, women in Montana got the right to vote. She was elected to Congress in 1916 with strong support from men and women. When she went to Washington, the nation looked to see if she could handle the office.
Handling the office was not an issue. What became an issue was her strongly held beliefs. She was elected as a Progressive Republican and she held strong pacifist views. When the vote to enter World War I came up, she voted against it. Even though 55 other Congressmen voted against it, she was ridiculed by many as not having the ability to take on the responsibility of national office. Others though said she showed strong, courageous leadership in her vote. She remained in office through World War II. She held on to her convictions and voted against that war too. She is the only member of Congress to have voted against the United States entry in both world wars. This time, she voted alone.
Seems Jeanette was one of those who thought that President Roosevelt had deliberately provoked the attack on Pearl Harbor. That didn’t sit well with anyone, including her constituents in Montana. So, instead of being defeated, she declined to run in 1943. But, she wasn’t done. In 1968, the 88 year old Rankin led a march on Washington to protest the Vietnam War. Rankin died in 1973 but you’ve to admire her. While I would not necessarily agree with her positions, one has to acknowledge that, unlike most politicians, she had a core belief and never knuckled under and remained active in promoting that belief until her last breath. Rather remarkable on many levels if you think about it.
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB
WINDS OF 61 KT…SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT…AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS. RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE. OVER THE WEEKEND…A
COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL STILL
FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA…WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER…AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7. DISTANT
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM
NORTHWARD…THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS…COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD…
TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS…INCLUDING
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF…ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND IS STRONGER…THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY
NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS
IN A FEW HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.3N 81.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.2N 81.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.3N 82.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 81.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.0N 80.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 10/1800Z 23.5N 75.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 72.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL