Islamist’s Terrorism Aids Presidential Candidate May 18, 2008

I told you that the weather for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico would be good.  And they did get the track in good shape after Friday’s rain.  I just  talked to a guy who got the Exacta….he claims it paid $36.  Pretty good deal. Hope you did as well.  Be sure to check in for the Belmont as I’ll be posting the weather for that too.

Around here we’re still trying to bring a ridge our way to warm things up.  It would appear it will happen toward Memorial Day weekend though the timing is a bit up in the air.  The models are not and have not been overly conclusive.  We may see some light showers overnight and early Sunday.  Late in the day we have a tad bit of energy swinging down into the northern part of the Ohio Valley that may help kick off a few showers and perhaps overnight.  Monday is a better chance as another upper low scoots down with the flow from Iowa through Illinois and our doorstep late Monday into Monday night.

An Islamist Helped The Re-Election of President Theodore Roosevelt on This Date in History in 1904 when he kidnapped a wealthy American, Ion Perdicaris, in Morocco.  Mubu Ahmed er Raisuli was considered to be a Barbary Pirate who was unhappy with the sultan of Morocco for allowing the French to have great sway and influence in the country as long as they gave him toys.  Sultan Abul Aziz got bicycles, 25 grand pianos, over 600 cameras and even a gold car even though Morocco had no roads.  Well, Raisuli had enough so he decided to act.  Not in the violent way that seemed more prevalent in the early 20th Century in general and has been pervasive in Islamic politics for generations. No…he decided to follow a script that could have been written in Hollywood.

By kidnapping Perdicaris and ransoming him to the Moroccan government, he hoped to involve the United States and bring great shame in disrepute to the government which would lead to it’s demise.  His plan worked.  He got the attention than none other than the old Rough Rider himself, Teddy Roosevelt, whose re-election campaign was in need of a boost.  Roosevelt seized the opportunity and sent a negotiator even though Raisuli had a reputation for sending messengers back with their throats slit or even just sending back their heads.  In this case, Raisuli didn’t provoke Roosevelt that directly but he was being difficult.  He finally agreed to release the tycoon for $70,000 then he changed his mind.  That provoked TR.

He sent a telegram to the envoy instructing that told him to proceed cautiously and had numeorus other items.  But, it also included the phrase, “the government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead.”  In typical Roosevelt fashion, TR sent a bunch of battleships to the coast of Morroco.  The Republican convention had unanimously re-nominated President Roosevelt but the atmosphere was dull and listless until….they read the one “bully” phrase from the telegram to the negotiator.  When the conventioneers heard that TR wanted the prisoner back alive or the captor dead, wild cheers and applause errupted on the convention floor and the campaign was off and running.  It turns out it was all for naught because by the time the telegram reached Raisuli he had already changed his mind again, accepted the money and released Perdicaris.  Of course the perception of the public was that it was Teddy’s dead or alive demand that caused the release.  The campaign never did  anything to change that perception nor did it point out that the United States had given in to every one of the pirate’s demands.

They also didn’t tell the electorate that it had been found out that Perdicaris wasn’t even an American citizen.  The administration had found out that during the Civil War, Perdicaris had renounced his US citizenship and become a Greek citizen so that when he refused his draft call into the Confederacy, his land holdings would not be confiscated.  The fact that the captive was not an American was not known to the public for 40 years, well after Roosevelt’s death.    I don’t think anyone shouted out “Teddy lied!”

This Hollywood script worked better than Raisuli bargained for. He got $70,000 but he made the sultan look so incompetent that the sultan’s brother overthrew the government and the new administration clamped down on the pirate Raisuli.  The French were so angered by the whole thing that they exerted even greater influence.  Perhaps there is a reason why those who wish to topple a government don’t follow a drama line…

But Hollywood liked the script and in 1975 produced The Wind and the Lion that was based on the incident.  But, producers being as it is…they made some changes.  Instead of a wealthy expatriated American man getting kidnapped, the lovely Candice Bergen was held by her captive…Sean Connery…who just a few years later was named the Sexiest Man Alive!!!  

Does the picture above look like Sean Connery to you?

Here’s a link to more details if you like:

Teddy’s Big Stick

Derby Forecast Threatens the Winner’s Circle? What About Mr. Nightlinger? May 2, 2008

Okay…I told you all along that I was most concerned with this afternoon and that proved to be even more of the case than I anticipated. I think I said that the chance for monkeybusiness was better for Friday afternoon than Friday night but I didn’t bargain for a whole barrel of monkeys.  The day was decent until about noon and then it became evident that we were in for a lousy afternoon.  We were in a rather odd spot in that the atmosphere was pretty stable basically from just a tad west of I-65 and points east. Consequently, the storms moving in got zapped.  That didn’t surprise me.  What was of more significant was the length and coverage of the rain event.  We were just out of reach of the big time unstable air.  At least 7 people were killed in Arkansas and they had some pretty impressive looking supercells in western Tennessee with a few wandering into Western Kentucky.

Anyway…still looking for this activity to move out by the early evening.  Then another round comes in well after midnight.  Perhaps some rumbles of thunder but the severe threat will be minimal at best.  As I mentioned all week, the timing is no good, which is why I thought that Friday was a better time for the focus. This rain we’ve had has just used up the potential energy and it will be very difficult to reload overnight.  In fact, some data indicates that there may not be much at all as activity to the south cuts off much of the moisture and energy.  Nevetheless. any rain early on Derby Day should be done by say..8 AM or so. Then its generally dry. The true cold front should come through around 2 or 3 pm and there remains a relatively low possibility for a thin line or scattered activity with the frontal passage.  Some of the modeling data even suggests just clouds.  For the actual Derby race, it should be dry with temperatures backing off the early afternoon highs of the mid 70′s.  There will be a decent breeze.

Note the SPC and it’s severe threat for tomorrow is well to the south.

On This Date In History: Roscoe Lee Brown was born on this date in 1925 in Woodbury, New Jersey. He was a great actor who was educated at, among other places, Columbia University.  I didn’t know that he was track star and also taught French and Literature.  I liked him as Jebediah Nightlinger in The Cowboys.  I told you earlier today about how the dastardly Bruce Dern shot John Wayne in the back in The Cowboys.  Well, Roscoe Lee Brown helped do in Bruce Dern(Long Hair), making him one of the heroes of swift justice in cinematic lore! And very appropriately, if not ironically, on the 83rd anniversary of Roscoe Lee Brown’s birth, a horse named Mr. Nightlinger ran in one of the races (Aegon Turf Sprint) for Oaks Day.  Mr. Nightlinger was the favorite and won.  I’m sure Mr. Brown would have loved it. 

Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Forecast On Track May 2, 2008

This is the late day Thursday SPC update on the severe threat. I’ll update this when a new one comes out. Here’s the link for the details.

Storm Prediction Center Link

 

The general forecast as presented all week is holding.  Friday, we have a boundary approaching.  As we warm to the upper 70′s to low 80′s, there may be some scattered showers or t’storms wandering through in the afternoon ahead of the main action.  So, there will be a chance for something to pass over Churchill Downs from time to time in the afternoon.  Then again, if something pops up, it may not affect the downs at all.  The main line will be to our west during the afternoon heating and so that is where the best chance for severe weather will be…let’s say St. Louis to Evansville to Little Rock to Memphis.  The line  would move through here overnight on Friday into early Saturday.  There will be some dynamic wind energy to support the storms but not nearly as impressive as the presentation of earlier indices. 

The SPC has the slight risk for the western half of the viewing area I suspect largely in case some of the storms hold together but as they progress east they should diminish in punch.  Mostly likely we will have some thunder and lightning and some gusty winds but nothing overly disconcerting.  I would probably be more concerned with one or two of the isolated guys in the afternoon getting a bit out of hand than the line overnight.  It’s not out of the question for one or two afternoon guys may be up to no good if we can diminish the cap.  I suspect that the cap will reassert itself for the overnight hours.

Rain for the first part of Saturday as the boundary moves east out of the area.  Now, this boundary isn’t really the cold front.  You’ll be able to tell because the winds will still be out of the Southwest.  Temperatures will be comfortable.  Now, as the vortlobe swings around the main storm to our north, that will be the real front.  It comes through in the afternoon and may produce some scattered activity in the afternoon on Derby Day.  There is nothing to indicate anything worthwhile.  All of the dynamics will be out of the area.  Bottom line is that the first part of Derby Day there will be lingering rain.  Overnight rain totals won’t be all that excessive but the infield will most likely be wet.  Should be interesting.  Afternoon stuff shouldn’t be too impressive but a passing shower can’t be ruled out. 

I used to deal Black Jack at the fraternity house.  Here’s the advice that I gave my brethren:  Bet Big, Win Big.  They took my advice and most of my weekend activities were paid for.  So, take my gambling advice at your own risk.

On This Date In History:  Confederate General Stonewall Jackson took one for the team on May 2, 1863.   Trouble was it was his own team that took him down.  The night after his greatest victory at Chancellorsville, Jackson led a recon mission and as he returned to his lines, his own men shot him.  His arm was shattered and the surgeon amputated it.  The next day they buried his arm complete with a headstone that reads, “Arm of Stonewall Jackson May 3, 1863.”  To hold down Jackson’s fever, the general ordered a servant put cold, wet towels over his body.  A week later, Jackson died of pneumonia.  They buried most of him about 100 miles away near Lexington, Virginia…and 100 miles from his arm.  It’s possible that he would have survived had they not put cold towels on his body.  One might say that Jackson’s arm got taken out by his soldiers and the rest of him went at the hands of his servants.

Good Housekeeping magazine was founded on this date in 1885. It was one of several ladies magazines that got started between 1880 and 1890. But…it’s the only one that has a segment today on WLKY Newschannel 32! (shameless plug)

What you see here is from The Cowboys John Wayne is whipping up on Bruce Dern. Right after this part, the Duke gets shot in the back by Dern. It’s one of the most despicable moments in cinematic history. I’m watching it right now. Dern is forever cast as one of the most low down vermin in my book. I cannot continue.