Help Haiti Get Clean Water Now January 23, 2010

Outside the Haitian Community Hospital, which is overflowing and running out of water. Edge will be installing a water filtration system this week for the hospital.Wednesday scenes in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 21, 2010 (cj/cj)

Louisville Edge Outreach settled down in Port-au-Prince, Haiti and started the groundwork to setting up water purification systems at the Red Cross. Edge group found two large bins that they will be using to purify the water near the Red Cross. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 20, 2010

HELP BRING RELIEF TO HAITI AND KNOW WHERE YOUR MONEY IS GOING AND WHAT IT IS BEING USED FOR:  The information at the bottom of this page  is from the website Survial Topics.com  There  is much more information concerning water and the human body.  We are made up of about 68% water.  Not only is it necessary to sustain the body itself, but also is necessary for vital body functions.  On the island of Hispaniola, in the best of times, there is a need for clean water.  There are many people living in an ecosystem that does not readily have clean water available.  Snow White and I are friends with a couple who sold everything they owned to move their family to the Dominican Republic to do mission work with the goal of digging water wells so that small, impoverished communities in isolated parts of the country could have a permanent, reliable source of clean water.  Literally, they gave up their own comfortable lives in the United States to bring hope and the basics of life to those in need.  I don’t know many people who would make such a self sacrifice.

Louisville Edge Outreach settled down in Port-au-Prince, Haiti and started the groundwork to setting up water purification systems at the Red Cross. Bowin Tichenor talks to the group about some logistics. Tim Borrson, left, and Hugh McCulloch on right. Tichenor has been on the ground since last Thursday getting set up with the Red Cross to start Water Purification when Louisville Edge arrives. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 20, 2010

Lindsey Tichenor helps care for their three small children and manage the activies of her husband Bowin who is out in the field daily using his knowledge, sweat and hopefully not too much blood to not only develop the wells, but also to train the people of the villages to operate and maintain the equipment.  When they left last summer, little did they know that they would find themselves on the edge of the biggest disaster in the world for 2010.  They live about 60 miles from Port Au Prince and when the earthquake struck at 4:53 pm on January 12, 2010 it shook the ground but they had little in the way of effects.  Very quickly though, word spread of the devastation in Haiti.  Without hesitating, Bowin and his team from the Edge Outreach organization went diretly to the epicenter, not knowing of the dangers in their path or what they would find.  The Louisville Courier Journal has been following their efforts.

Louisville Edge Outreach settled down in Port-au-Prince, Haiti and started the groundwork to setting up water purification systems at the Red Cross. Group leader, Bill Parker, left, talks with Bowin Tichenor after landing in Haiti. Tichenor has been on the ground since last Thursday

Edge Outreach has gone into relief mode for Haiti and you can too.  Lindsey does not know when Bowin will return as he is one who tends to get the job done.  Edge Outreach is efforting to dig at least 100 wells in Haiti to bring clean, life-sustaining water to thousands of Haitians.  The devasted area will need new sources for clean water for months to come.  The work is difficult and laborious.  Digging that many wells will take time, but they will perservere until everyone in the country can have access to clean water, one way or another.  There must be a long term solution for basic needs before the government and global community can rebuild a new Haiti.  Not only will it take time, but also funding to provide those wells.

Louisville Edge Outreach settled down in Port-au-Prince, Haiti and started the groundwork to setting up water purification systems at the Red Cross. The group from left, Hugh McCulloch, Tim Borrson, Ed Walters, and William Ward, said a prayer when they landed for safe travels while doing their work here. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 20, 2010

There are many relief efforts going on with numerous organizations in need of funding for their particular effort.  Edge Outreach did not ask me to solicit funds for them.  I just think its the least I can do to try to help our friends, Lindsey and Bowin, as they do the work on the ground.  They are in country and are on the ground as we speak.  They just need to be adequately supplied with equipment and supplies to bring the precious water to so many in need.  If you would like to give direct aid to Edge Outreach that will use the funds to buy the materials for the wells.  These wells are not a bandaid, its real long term help.  But time is short.  These people need water now and will need it tomorrow.  Shipping water in is only feasible for a limited time.  The best solution is to help the people of Haiti help themselves.  Edge Outreach and people like Bowin and Lindsey are there, they just need some help from home. 

If you feel as if you would like to help the people of Haiti and know exactly where your money is going and for what reason, just  go to the Edge Outreach website and follow the instructions to make a tax deductable donation.To make a donation and find out more, CLICK HERE.  Edge Outreach accepts many major credit cards.”All funds raised in response to the Haiti earthquake will be used immediately to provide clean water for children and families affected by this crisis. Any funds raised in excess will be stewarded by EDGE OUTREACH for additional and future disaster relief efforts.”

Crumbled walls and buildings near the Red Cross in Port-au-Prince, Haiti . Louisville Edge Outreach are starting their groudwork for water purification in this area to the thousands of people that have not had clean water since the earthquake. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 20, 2010

Importance of Adequate Water: When faced with a survival situation, clean drinkable water is often the most important consideration. People have survived without food for weeks or even months, but go without water for even just one day and the survivor will be in desperate straights indeed.

Knowing that water is by far the most important nutrient for the human body (besides oxygen) and, in particular, during a survival situation when finding potable water may not be easy, the question becomes – just how long can the human body survive without adequate water?

To maintain a high level of health and efficiency even in ideal environments, a minimum of two quarts of clean water per day per person is the generally accepted rule of thumb. In very hot or cold or very dry environments, or if you are physically active, two quarts of water a day may not be enough to sustain life over a period of days or weeks.

Global Warming Kills Filipinos! Broken Glass Deters Burglars! Frankie Shoots Johnny! October 15, 2009

This Pig and the Philippines Were Victims of Climate Change, Not a Typhoon, According to the Philippines President

Tropical Storm 22 Forecast Track Creates Typhoon Lupit and Sends it to the Philippines

CLICK HERE For a more recent update on Typhoon Lupit, 

Even though US news media outlets have largely been silent on the subject, the Philippines suffered from the effects of two tropical cyclones over two weeks time.  One of those storms, Typhoon Parma, came back for a second landfall on the island.  This was in the wake of Tropical Storm Ketsana. Together, the two storms took at least 710 lives in the Philippines and greatly damaged rice production, infrastructure and the Filipino economy in general.  As Parma made a final assault on Vietnam, heading near Hanoi, Philippines President Gloria Arroyo made a speech in which she asked for international aid.  Now, the UN tried to raise $74 million in funds but only got pledges for $19 million.  So, perhaps seeing that the international community wasn’t responding to the run-of-the-mill plea for help, the president is trying a new tactic to get some attention. She says that the Philippines is a victim of climate change and that, as victims, the Philippines is due compensation from the real culprits to their calamity,which is the rest of the world.  It will be interesting to see where this goes because if Arroyo is successful in this argument because, if she is, then other underdeveloped countries will be standing in line for compensation every time there is a weather related disaster.

Watch Typhoon Lupit Develop in Most Recent Loop

Perhaps she should hold off and wait for more evidence.  You see…there is another tropical cyclone developing.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts that tropical storm 22 will become Typhoon Lupit and strike the Philippines.  At this point, the Typhoon Lupit forecast track (if it were to become named) is currently oriented to hit almost the exact same spot that Typhoon Parma hit the Philippines.   Each storm name is provided by a different country and it’s ironic that Lupit was submitted by the Philippines.

The Tichenors

In another impoverished country, Snow White and I have friends who are doing missionary work.  I told you about how Bowen and Lindsey Tichenor sold everything that they owned, including raffling off their home, took their 3 small children and went to the Dominican Republic to build water purification facilities for the extremely impoverished people in that island nation.  They managed to avoid any strong tropical cyclones but, crime is a real problem.  They have an ingenious way to protect their home and family.  Outside the home they have spread broken glass to deter any night-time prowlers.  You can follow their updates on the Tichenor website or read an update in this PDF File:

TichenorN…pdf (2.0 MB)  You can also get on their facebook page or follow their exploits on Twitter.

A woman shot a man on this date in history the ballad about the shooting became an American classic, though it wasn’t too accurate.

Blind Fold too tight for Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you the weather would suck on Wednesday and its not getting much better for the rest of the week and perhaps into Saturday.  Chilly and wet.  Wonder if the president of the Philippines would say we are victims of climate change.  I want compensation!

A Better Chance to Win a House than an American had winning a country July 12, 2009

We’re nearing the time for the big drawing. IT’S A CHANCE TO WIN A HOME ….a nice suburban home. These good folks are raffling the home but, they are doing so to raise money for mission work. They are setting out to bring clean water to the impoverished of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Therefore, they tell me the purchase of a ticket is tax deductable. Great opportunity to win, great opportunity to give. At least take the time to click on the links and check it out.

On this Date In History: American William Walker was a doctor, lawyer, newspaperman and hypnotist in the middle of the 19th Century. But he became better known as a filibuster, which is from the Dutch word that means freebooter or soldier of fortune. He was a little guy as he weighed all of about 120 pounds but he had big ambitions. On This Date in 1856, at the age of 31 he became the only American born citizen to become President of another country….supposedly. At least that is what my source claims. I would suggest that Sam Houston as President of the Republic of Texas was first. Anyway, this guy convinced the head of the Democrat party in Nicaragua to invite him and some “settlers” to come to Nicaragua. In reality, they were a bunch of mercenaries hired to help that party win a civil war that was going on. The ruse of being settlers was set up to avoid entanglement in US neutrality laws. So, he and his band of merry men helped defeat the opposition and he set up a phony election that made him president. He only served two years because he irked the wrong guy.

Walker leading the way at Lake Nicaragua

One of the things he was doing was trying to conquer neighboring countries by hiring more mercenaries and also get support from the slave holding South in the United States by rescinding Nicaragua’s long standing Emancipation order. Well, none of that sat well with Americans in the North and particularly Commodore Cornelius Vanderbilt who had a company that ferried freight and passengers across that part of Central America before the canal was built. He even had designs of building a canal across Nicaragua and Walker was in the way. So, he got together a bunch of guys in neighboring Costa Rica and even got help from the British and American Navies. That was the end of Walker who lost a key battle on April 11, 1857 and surrendered on May 1st of that year. He was sent back to the United States where he wrote a book about his adventures. He tried to return and when he did, he was captured again in Honduras by the British Navy who turned him over to local Hondurans who promptly had Walker executed by firing squad at the age of 36 on September 12, 1860.

While we don’t think about William Walker much, his defeat and failure marked a turn around in Central America as it was seen as a pseudo war of independence. His name is one hated as it is held up as a symbol of “Yankee imperialism.” In Costa Rica, there is a national holiday commemorating Walker’s defeat on April 11. So, for all his trouble…he got a day in Costa Rica for his failure. Take a lesson from this. Don’t try to take over a country. Leave that to the professionals.

SPC Severe Threat Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  The weak boundary dropped down (it was a COLD front, not a cool front…there’s no such thing as a cool front) and came through but a quick looksee leads me to believe that we were sandwichced in between shorts…there was one to the northeast and one to the southwest and all that rising air had to sink somewhere so my guess is that it was over our area and it suppressed t’storms in our area Saturday afternoon.  Now the boundary is just to our south and any waves will be running along it.  The SPC has the focus for today just to our southwest.   They’ve probably got a wide enough berth to account for an undulation to the north but, should the boundary set up much farther north, then we may be susceptable.  I’ll give you a hint of what I really think…I watered my flowers.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009
  
   VALID 121300Z – 131200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   INTO THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY…
  
   …CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY…
   COMPLEXES ONGOING OVER NERN KS AND SERN SD MAY CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH
   THE MORNING ALONG PERIPHERY OF SRN HIGH PLAINS MID LEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE.  REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY FLOW
   ALOFT AND THEREFORE SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS…WITH SEVERITY AND LONGEVITY DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY.  THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ATTM THAT BOWING COMPLEX
   APPROACHING NWRN MO AT 13Z COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF AND INCREASE SEWD
   TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH TODAY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BREAK CAP
   ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO.  REGARDLESS… ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   OF SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS/MCSS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
   EVOLVING TO THE NORTHWEST INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
   AND/OR INVOF SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARIES ALONG FRINGE OF STRONG WNWLY
   FLOW ALOFT.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING DETAILS OF
   ACTUAL SEVERE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS.  THEREFORE…WILL EXPAND A
   BROAD SLGT RISK AND ACCOMPANYING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM
   THE HIGH PLAINS REGION SSEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY WITH
   LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING
   THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
  
   …ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA/SRN MD…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES
   TODAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE EWD FROM THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY…MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AND SEVERAL MODELS
   DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN NC
   SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING AT LEAST A THREAT OF
   SEVERE STORMS…INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES INTO THE
   EVENING.
  
   …PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES…
   FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD…ENHANCING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
   ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN ROCKIES.  IN
   ADDITION…FETCH OF MODEST PWS EVIDENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS
   IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS
   ACROSS THE REGION…INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS.  HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/12/2009

Help The Poor-Get a Tax Deduction-Win a 2100 Sq Ft Home! Anti-War Secretary of State Resigns June 10, 2009

 

Get These Kids Clean Water, Take a Deduction and Maybe Win a Home

Tax decuctable donation gives chance for a new house!  (Go For It! Click HERE!) A couple is selling everything they own to help others.  Lindsey and Bowin Tichenor are taking their 3 small children and moving to the Dominican Republic to help bring the impovershed nation clean drinking water.  The government can’t or won’t do it, so these folks are dedicating their lives to do so.  To help support their mission, they are raffling their home.  (It’s a Suburban 2100 sq ft home  Click Here for Specs)  I’m guessing that because the money raised will go to their mission, essentially you are making a donation and then you get a chance for the home and that is why they tell me the purchase of a chance is tax-deductable.  Go for it.  Odds of winning are going to the casino.  And you are helping others to serve the needs of people in need. Doesn’t matter what  your political party is, your religion or even if you have a religion.  You can help others who are helping their fellow man, you get a tax deduction and you may end up with a house.  You say you care about the poor? Put your money where your mouth is!

Bryan Could Often Get Worked Up in Speeches. The Guy to the Right Looks like He's seen This Act Before

Probably the Closest Photo You'll Find of Bryan Smiling

On This Date in History: On this date in 1915, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned. In May of that year, the Germans had sunk the Lusitania, one of the worlds largest ships. Over 1200 perished, including some 128 Americans. Bryan sent a nicey-pooh note to the Germans saying how he wanted to stregnthen relations and such. I suppose today, Jennings would have  gone to the UN.  Nevertheless, the Germans responded saying that they were justified in torpedoing the passenger ship, claiming it was carrying arms. Years later, historians have established the ship was indeed carrying a small amount of armaments.

Now, Bryan was big-time anti-war.  He had run for President a few times and lost each time but supported President Wilson because the President had run on a platform of peace.  He supported Wilson’s declaration of US neutrality.  But, Bryan saw that the advances in technology had made traditional aspects of neutrality dangerous.  He thought that a position of neutrality should be modified to restrict the travel of Americans into war zones because it was impossible to protect US citizens when there are submarines running around.  But, Wilson insisted on tradition.   

Wilson and Bryan Jan 1913

So, when the Lusitania went down, President Woodrow Wilson responded with a terse note demanding that Germany curtail its practice of unrestricted warfare. Bryan urged the President to send a similar letter to the British for its violation of neutral rights.  I suppose that would be “fair” except that any violations the Brits had did not include the sinking of ocean liners filled with passengers  Wilson instead sent a second letter to the Germans.  Bryan, fearing the letter represented an escalation toward war, resigned instead of signing the letter. The Germans responded by scaling back their U-Boat practices through 1916. When they started again in 1917, Wilson eventually asked for, and received, a declaration of war against Germany. The Yanks indeed did come and turned the tables of the conflict against the Axis powers and the war eventually came to an end.

 

By the way, the man who took Bryan’s place was Robert Lansing….no relation to the actor, seen here as Mr. Gary Seven from a famous Star Trek episode. The actor’s real name was Robert Howell Brown. He took his stage name from the town of Lansing, Michigan.

Today's Convective Outlook SPC

Surface Forecast Wednesday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  One certainty that shows up when looking at the vertical profile progs is that we will remain unstable for the next few days.  There is a boundary stalled to our north and so waves will run along the boundary and enhance the risk for rain and potentially the risk for strong storms.  As I had indicated previously,  a wave did in fact move to our north Wednesday morning with the appendage sticking down enough to provide some rain and t’storms just north of Louisville but not enough to engulf the entire area.  I’m supposing that as the wave moves by, the stationary boundary will sag a shade farther south in its wake.  So, the next waves that come along will track a bit farther South.  Timing and exact route of these waves will remain problematic and will probably only be known when they actually initiate storms.

Tornado Probability Through Thu AM

Nevertheless, the NAM puts a wave on us around Midnight Wednesday night.   The parameters are pretty healthy then and the NAM even ramps up the SWEAT index to near the 400 threshold for an enhanced twister risk.  It also has even stronger feedback for Thursday.  The GFS advertises more consistent rain chances throughout the day but takes its parameters highest throughout Thursday and even Friday.  Probably a pretty good idea to keep abreast of the weather the next few days.  By late Friday, the front is progged to sag South.  Some data suggests that another wave forms in the Southern Plains on Friday and moves it into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, thus dragging the front back our way.  Should that occur, then we may be vulnerable to more rain and possibly strong storms.  We’ll wait to see what happens. So, don’t panic, but keep your ears on.  Biggest risk the next few days will be for wind and hail but one cannot discount the tornado risk as super cells may pop up on an isolated basis.

Severe Hail Probability Through Thu AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
  

Severe Wind Probability Through Thu AM

 BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
   STATES…AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
   GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
   BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.
  
   AT THE SFC…A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE…FRACTURED IN
   A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION…EXTENDS FROM ERN
   CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK…AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.
   
  

Convective Outlook Thursday SPC

 TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
   INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY…2)
   PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
   LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT…AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
   RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK…AND
   DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.
  
   …SRN PLAINS…
   IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
   COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
   TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
   INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
   THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
   IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
  
   STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK…AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
   SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK…EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
   ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
   BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
   ACROSS WRN OK…AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
   MORNING.
  
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
   STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
   SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
   SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
   IN ADDITION TO WIND…LARGE HAIL…AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL…UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
   FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.
  
   …MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
   EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
   LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   ACROSS THE REGION ATTM…POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.
  
   …EAST…
   ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING…BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW…AND WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
   INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
   HOWEVER…SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
   MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.
  
   …HIGH PLAINS…
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
   WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
   FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
   DAYS…INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
   INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS…PRESENCE OF LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT…LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL ZONE…AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
   KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.
  
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/10/2009