Super Typhoon Megi Set To Strike Philippines With Extreme Intensity October 17, 2010

Super Typhoon Megi Cast an Impressive Multispectral Image at 2330Z Oct 16, 2010

For a more recent update regarding Typhoon Megi’s approach to China CLICK HERE

Japan Meteorological Agency Forecast Track Super Typhoon Megi (Juan)

The Philippines is making preparations ahead of a powerful Super Typhoon set to strike the island nation Monday morning with effects being felt on Sunday. The storm, known locally as Juan, is feared to have the same flooding potential as Typhoon Ketsana in Sept 2009. Typhoon Megi (a.k.a. Typhoon Juan) has behaved exactly as expected and it is now a very powerful storm designated as Super Typhoon Megi, Super Typhoon Juan or Super Typhoon 15W.  Whichever moniker you choose, it is a force to be reckoned with as its energy release compares favorably to an excess of the global electric generating capacity or as an equivalent to the largest yield atomic weapon every minute.  Another estimate puts a well developed tropical cyclone energy release on par with 500,000 Hiroshima style atomic bombs per day. 

Super Typhoon Megi Graph of Central Pressure Progression

In any event, the inhibiting factors to the storm have gone by the wayside as anticipated and the central pressure has dropped to 908 mb, which is extremely low.  To provide a frame of reference of how that compares to intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic,  Hurricane Camille in 1969 bottomed out at 909 mb and had winds approaching 200 mph.  Hurricane Andrew in 1992 had a minima pressure of 922 mb and the lowest that Katrina had in 2005, well before landfall, was 920 mb.   Super Typhoon Megi is not too far from the all-time lowest recorded atmospheric pressure which occured in 1979 with Typhoon Tip, which had a remarkable central pressure of 870 mb.  Previously, Typhoon Ida held the record of 879 mb when it was 750 miles east of Luzon (very close to the current location of Megi-450 miles NE of Manila) in 1958.  So, extremely intense storms in the region are not totally uncommon.  The clouds that had been obscuring the center have gone by the way-side and a well defined, relatively small eye has developed. 

West Pacific IR Rainbow Satellite Featuring Typhoon Megi-Click Image for Most Recent Loop

Super Typhoon Megi (Juan) JTWC Forecast Track 00Z 10.17.10

A pressure approaching 900 mb can easily support higher winds than the 3 UTC (Z) Oct 17 2010 analysis of 140 kt sustained winds of 140 kts and gusts to 170 kts, which translates to sustained winds of 161 mph or 259 kph and gusts to 195 mph or 315 kph.  Some further intensification is possible as the forecast calls for sustained winds to increase to 145 kts and gusts to 175 kts.  While the pressure can support even higher winds than that, at this point, they are so strong that it almost becomes academic in relation to the destruction potential and the ultimate intensity at landfall will most likely be subject to eyewall replacement cycles.  When a tropical cyclone goes through an eyewall replacement cycle, central winds typically fall off but the breadth of gale force winds expands.  That was the case with Hurricane Katrina which “only” had winds of 125 mph at landfall as it headed  into Mississippi but 100 mph winds were felt all the way to Mobile.  Another factor that may inhibit substantial intensification would be a slight disruption of the northern outflow.  This is an example of why it is difficult for an extremely intense tropical cyclone to maintain its maxima for long as environmental conditions must be perfect and perfect conditions rarely last long.  Nevertheless, as it stands, the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center puts the winds around 140 kts at landfall sometime after 00 UTC (Z) October 18, 2010 north of Palanan and east of Tuguegarao.  It would not be out of the question for winds to exceed forecast levels at some point in time.  The timing of eyewall replacement cycles, however, is beyond current forecast abilities until the beginning of the cycle change is actually observed.

West Pacific Total Precipitable Water Latest 72 hours-Click Image for Loop

West Pacific IR Satellite with Wind Barbs (Isotachs)

As was anticipated, the trof of low pressure near Okinawa that was causing a weakness in the steering ridge to the North has moved northeast and the ridge filled in.  Consequently, the previous west northwest track of Megi has shifted westward at 12 kts.  The ridge is expected to continue to build such that the westward track should change around the time that the storm gets to the coast of Luzon such that it moves west-southwest.  That track would take Megi over the mountainous regions of northern Luzon but well north of Manila.  The storm surge on the eastern, northeastern and northern part of the island will be extreme but exact levels will be determined by the geogrpahy of the coast.  The mountains will enhance the rain totals which will most likely be extreme.  Even as it loses intensity rapidly over the mountains, the circulation will be such that there will be an onshore flow off of the South China Sea toward Manila for a period of time so rain totals will most likely be high on both sides of Luzon. 

Super Typhoon Megi Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery with max Wind Velocity-Click Image for Loop

If there is any good news to report it is that the forward speed may increase a bit and so the center of the storm may be over Luzon for only about 12 hours.  That’s plenty of time to do plenty of damage but at least its not going to crawl across the Philippines and extend the high risk for catastrophic flooding.  By 12UTC (Z) October 18, 2010 Typhoon Megi should re-emerge over the ocean in the South China Sea with winds forecast to have been reduced to 95 kts.  However, once over the warm waters of the ocean, Typhoon Megi will regain some strength but most likely will not get back to it’s former self…that would be extremely rare and there simply will not be time nor will the environmental conditions support such a scenario.  Even so, It is expected to get back to 115 kt sustained winds by 00UTC (Z) October 22, 2010. 

Super Typhoon Megi Graph of Wind Speed Progression

Previously, the extended forecast track had suggested a second landfall on the South China island of Hainan followed by a final landfall after crossing the Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam.  Modeling data though has formed a consensus though of another trof coming down through Asia. 

Map SE Asia

That trofiness is expected to influence Megi northwest after it enters the South China Sea.  The depth of that trof will determine the fate of Megi.  If it is slow or not so strong, then Megi may run into China south of Hong Kong, though it would still be close enough to affect that city.  If the trof is a little deeper, then it could turn Megi for a more direct affect on Hong Kong and if the trof is fast and very deep, it could conceivably turn the storm north and then northeast.  While there may not be sufficient room in the sea for this to occur without striking land, that scenario would put Taiwan at risk of a hit from the Southwest and potentially even Japan after that.  It’s way too soon to tell.  One thing seems invevitable:  the Northern Philippines will be affected adversely of the effects of a major tropical cyclone by 00UTC (Z) 18 October 2010.

Typhoon Megi Probable Super Typhoon Threatens Philippines October 16, 2010

23:30 UTC (Z) Rainbow IR image of Typhoon Megi Not totally impressive but it should become better defined over next 48 hours (Click image for most recent loop)

Typhoon Megi 17:30Z IR Satellite 10.15.10

CLICK HERE FOR MORE RECENT UPDATE ON SUPER TYPHOON MEGI

Typhoon Megi continues to intensify and is expected to be a significant threat to the northern Philippine province of Luzon by late this weekend.  Americares is making preparations to bring relief.   Typhoon Megi is currently the only tropical cyclone anywhere on earth but it could be one of the strongest of the year to affect land.  While it is very likely that the storm will go well beyond the threshold of Super Typhoon status with winds in excess of 100 kts, the specific track seems to be a little problematic and that could mean all the difference for the Philippines.  By 18 UTC (Z) October 17, 2010 the typhoon is expected to have sustained winds of 135 kts with gusts to 165 kts.  Roughly, that would be just shy of the North Atlantic Category 5 classification.  Environmental conditions are such that intensification from the 18 UTC (Z) October 15, 2010 95 kt level to the loftier, stronger classification is likely.  Megi is the name of a catfish in South Korea and is related to the feeling of getting wet, according to the Hong Kong Observatory

Equatorial Total Precipitable Water-Click Image for latest 72 hour loop As Typhoon Megi Develops

Typhoon Megi JTWC Forecast Track 18UTC (Z) 10.15.10 (click to enlarge)

Typhoon Megi was about 1000 miles east of Manilla at 18 UTC (Z) 10.15.10 moving WestNorthwest at about 17 kts with a central pressure of 955 mb which will in itself support higher winds than the current estimates.   The pressure trend has continued to be down.  The typhoon has been traveling around a big ridge of high pressure to the north but has taken the more northwesterly track over the past 24 hours due to a weakness in the ridge just south of Okinawa, Japan.  The general model consensus and analysis of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is for that weakness to get squished out and the ridge reassert itself.  As that happens, Typhoon Megi will resume a more westerly course around the ridge.  However, previous forecasts had been calling for that turn more to the west to have already occured.  Since it has not, the landfall point on Luzon has been shifted farther north to somewhere near or north of Palanan and east of Tuguegarao.  The northern part of the island is very mountainous and the terrain is anticipated to do a number on the storm and it should rapidly fall apart with the land interaction.   However, the rising terrain of the mountains will provide for a lifting mechanism that will tend to enhance rainfall.  It is for that reason that in the Philippines and other island nations with central mountain ranges that flooding and mudslides are often the greatest threat as rainfall totals can be exceptionally extreme in a relatively short period of time.  Given the counterclockwise flow of a typhoon in the northern hemisphere, even locations on the other side of the island such as Laoag can expect and onshore flow from the north that will also provide adverse conditions of wind and heavy rain.

Typhoon Megi Morphed Intergrated Microwave Imagery 00Z 10.16.10 (Click for Loop)

The thinking now is that the storm will run across the northern part of the Philippines in 48-72 hours and lose much intensity, but not completely.  It is expected to re-emerge in the South China Sea as a 75 kt typhoon where it will continue west and regain some strength over the following day or so back to 90 kts.  From that point, it is expected to make a second landfall, perhaps on the South China island of Hainan.  From there, it could move across the Gulf of Tonkin and make a 3rd landfall in North Vietnam.  While it will certainly have lost considerable intensity by then, it is not uncommon for typhoons on the downside of life to prove a risk to life and property in Vietnam due to flooding concerns. 

Map SE Asia

I would think that the fly in the ointment is the weakness in the ridge.  It is caused by a shortwave trof that came off the Asian continent.  As mentioned it is forecast to be squished, or more correctly, it is expected to lift to the northeast as the ridge fills in.  However, if that trof does not lift out in a timely manner or slower than currently anticipated, then it is plausible that Megi proceeds on its current west northwest track a bit longer than forecast before making its turn more toward the west.  Should that happen to a great enough degree, then the typhoon could run over the islands in the Luzon Strait.  That would also bring Hong Kong into the picture as a potential threat to receive at least adverse effects of a major typhoon.

Bottom line is that this is going to be a serious typhoon.  It will affect the northern Philippines to some degree.  The current forecast calls for a landfall in Northern Luzon.  However, unanticipated but possible changes in the atmospheric conditions to the north that are steering the storm give rise to a degree of uncertainty as to the ultimate story of Typhoon Megi.

Chimp Challenges Experts For 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast May 28, 2010

Hurricane Andrew Sequence Aug 23, 24, 25, 1992

"Dr. James Hansimian"

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: Let us begin with the 2010 hurricane season prognastication of Dr. James Hansimian(video).   He is predicting 6 to 8 hurricanes for the 2010 season.  Never heard of him?  You probably will.  You see, he is a chimpanzee whom the National Center for Public Policy Research has put on the record in an effort to emphasize how little humans really know about the climate.  They claim that NOAA has been “wrong three out of the last 4 years and 7 of the last 11.”  They say they are not hiring “Dr. Hansimian” to ridicule  the effort and dedication of climate and hurricane specialists but instead to highlight that, even with the greatest minds, competence, tools and methodology, humans do not have a complete understanding of the climate.  They say that they will make another video in December 2010 of Dr. Hansimian and determine who was more correct.  In the meantime, let us look what some of the leading authorities have to say. 

Hurricane Headlines Used to Contain Facts, Not Sensational Hyperbole

Now, I already had a pretty good idea of what the National Hurricane Center would say.  What is amazing to me though is the media coverage.  I looked at the headline from USA Today and it says, Fierce Hurricane Season Predicted.   CNN had a story about the exact same subject but its link was a more subdued, “Hurricane Season Could be Above Average.”   Nevertheless, the actual headline to the story was a more menacing, “Hurricane Season Could be ‘Active’ or “Extremely Active.’”  AFP via Yahoo News was even more dramatic by trumpeting, “2010 Hurricane Season May Be Worst on Record.”   But, Reuters via Yahoo News had a little different spin as its headline read, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005.”   Fox News says, “Hurricane Season Could be Strongest Ever Say Top Meteorologists.”  I have yet to find any quote from anyone at NOAA or the NHC that verifies any  of these headlines except fo the one from CNN, which not-coincidentally is the least sensational.   Interestingly, CBS4 in South Florida took a different tact.  Instead of focusing on the threat to the United States, instead its headline was, “NHC Director Fears For Haiti This Hurricane Season.”  That one is right on the money.  A tropical cyclone for Haiti of any magnitude would not be good and they get nailed in one form or another very frequently.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Names 2005 to 2010 (In 2005 they ran out of names so went to Alpha, Beta...etc.)

So, what did was the National Hurricane Center 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast on May 27?   To begin with, the press release from the NHC had a headline that read, “NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic  Hurricane Season.”  Note that this headline lacks the hyperbole and extreme adjectives of the media.  As usual, they give themselves a wide berth by saying that there will be between 14 and 23 named storms.  That would be tropical cyclones of tropical storm force or more.  The difference between 14 and 23 is pretty large.  Eight to 14 of those storms are expected to be hurricanes with 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes which means category 3 or greater.  For the past several years, NOAA taking some of the thunder from the NHC.  I believe they are in the process of changing the name of the NHC to the NOAA National Hurricane Center; I suppose it’s an effort to establish that its a governmental agency.  In any event, the initial quote from their press release is not from an NHC forecaster or the Director.  Instead, its from the Under-Secretary of Commerce, who said, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record.”   Notice she said “If” and “could” and related it to “one of the more active” seasons.  The reason they give is warm ocean waters, no El Nino and a decadal cycle.  The last one is the most significant.  Accepted science generally has concluded that the Atlantic season goes in cycles of about 30 years in which there is great activity and, conversely, 30 years with low activity.  Since 1995, we have been in an “active era.” 

2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Now, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the most active in recorded history.  Keep in mind that it fell in part of the current “active era” and that recorded history is limited.  The first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in 1969 so prior to that, only ship reports were able to confirm hurricanes and ships kinda like to avoid storms so its possible there were several over the years that were missed.  Anyway, in 2005 there were 28 named storms with 15 hurricanes including the two notable powerful storms, Rita and Katrina.  That means, in order for the headlines of some of these media outlets to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season would have to have 5 more named storms than the top end of the forecast and one more hurricane than the extreme forecasted.  The headlines also neglect to take into account a very important and possible caveat from the press release that could put a damper on the number of storms:

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

Dr. William Gray: Making Hurricane Season Forecasts for At least 27 Years

Now, for 27 years one of the leading hurricane forecasting expert has been Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University.  Until recent years, he was about the only one who tried to make a forecast.  The NHC lately has been getting into the game and diminishing the role of Dr. Gray.  Dr. Gray is now has handed over some of the duties to Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the pair lead the efforts at Colorado State.  Back in early April, the Colorado State University  team issued their 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and noted warm ocean temperatures and a weakening El Nino as the reason for a more active season.  However, their numbers are more pedestrian.  They suggest 15 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes.  They go a step further and say that there is a 69% probability of major hurricane striking the US which is higher than the 52% of the 20th century.   Another tropical cyclone forecasting service, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast is somewhere in between the NHC  and  CSU with 16.3 (+/- 4.1) named storms, 8.5 (+/- 2.8) hurricanes and 4 (+/- 1.7) major hurricanes.

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005

On average, the number of named storms in any given year in the North Atlantic is 10 (9.6) with 6 (5.9) hurricanes and 2.3 of those becoming major hurricanes.  So, both forecast teams are predicting an above average season.  It would seem that the folks at CSU might be a looking on the low end with an eye on the El Nino not diminishing completely to neutral until after the hurricane season has started.  The NHC seems to be banking on the El Nino coming to an end sooner, or at least allowing for that possibility, thus they have the substantially larger number of storms on the high end of their range.  But, again….Dr. Gerry Bell’s words make it sound as if they think that a La Nina condition developing is a real possibility.  The two forecasts are almost identical except that the NHC gives itself a wide berth so, if by chance there are a bunch of storms, then they can say they said so.  They also can avoid making any huge revisions as the season progresses as has been done with some initial hurricane season forecasts in the past.  The truth is, it’s just a forecast.  We’re in the middle of an active 30 year cycle and so its expected to be more active.  How much more active is an academic exercise.  In the first place, it’s impossible to predict so far out any specific disturbance developing in exactly the right conditions.  Remember, you need more than just warm water to have a tropical cyclone.   Also, just because a tropical cyclone develops, it doesn’t mean that it will hit land.  A tropical cyclone’s job in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical region to the polar region.  They don’t really care if there is land in the way or ocean. 

Just Because It's a Headline, Doesn't Mean that It's True

And one more thing….note that nothing was said about Global Warming in either the Colorado State University forecast or the National Hurricane Center outlook.  They do refer to a warm surface temperature anomoly, but that is about as close as you get.  And, if it were due to Global Warming or Climate Change, then it would stand to reason that there would be more tropical cyclones all around the world.  As it happens, the NHC forecasts a Below Average Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Beyond that, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has a 2010 NW Pacific Typhoon Season Forecast that is near average.  TSR also has a forecast for the Australian region for tropical activity to be about 10% below average.  Going by the forecasts…well above average for the North Atlantic, below average for the Eastern Pacific and Australian region and about average for the NW Pacific.  Doesn’t sound like a global climate calamity, does it?  So, if the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season does have a signficant number of hurricanes, get ready for the media reports that try to tie it to Global Warming.  But, don’t believe it.  And, if the number that actually does come about is less than forecast (as was the case in 2009) then look for an explainer, which the NHC has already conveniently put out there.  See, they’re pretty smart.  If the season is slightly above average, they can say, “we said so.”  If its way above average, they can say, “we said so.”  And if the number of storms is less than the predicted range, they can say, ” we warned you about a possible La Nina.”  All the bases are covered.  That’s what a lot of guys on TV do as they can always claim victory, no matter what, when they say “Variable cloudy skies and a 50% chance of rain.” 

NAM Friday Evening Precipitation Forecast

Penn's Store in Gravel Switch, KY Since 1845

Weather Bottom Line:  I had to go to Gravel Switch Kentucky to help the folks at Kentucky’s oldest store, Penn’s Store.  Actually, it’s not just Kentucky’s oldest store, it is considered the oldest country store in America.  I am told that it began operation in 1845, though I’ve seen published reports that claim 1850.  But, I think I’ll go with the word of the Penn family.   About a month ago, when Tennessee was getting relatively sparse coverage of flooding, Kentucky got even less coverage.  Of course, South Central  Kentucky only got 11 inches of rain and parts of Tennessee got 15-20 inches so I suppose that it fits that if Tennessee got slim coverage, then Kentucky got none.  Anyway, I was helping them clean up and rid the store of a snake and so I could not post on Thursday when the NHC  Hurricane Forecast came out.  So, I’m a day late.

GFS Monday Evening Precip Outlook

I did see a few towering cumulous clouds late in the day…about the time I was playing St. Patrick and ridding the Penn’s Store of a 4 or 5 foot snake.  On our return to Louisville, there were some pretty decent wind gusts and it was much cooler, leading me to believe that there were some decent thunderstorms around, which did not surprise me.  The weak boundary will still be in the area on Friday so we will see some scattered storms again with highs in the mid 80′s.  We warm a bit over the weekend with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80′s.  We may have an isolated t’storm on Sunday but more likely there will be scattered afternoon storms on Memorial Day.

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track Provides Many Questions November 5, 2009

Tropical Storm Ida Satellite Loop (IR Color)

For latest update on Hurricane Ida affect on Nicaragua and future of Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Track possibly toward US, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track

Without much fanfare, Tropical Storm Ida formed in the extreme wester Caribbean in the last couple of days.  It was a cluster of storms that moved just off the Central American coast.  The US Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadran (Hurricane Hunters) data and satellite data support the notion that a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 55 kts (65 mph) exists about 60 miles off the coast of Nicaragua.   In the near term, Ida will track to the NNW slowly over Nicaragua and then Honduras.  Because of its slow movement, excessive rain can be expected over the next few days over those countries.  It will be interesting to see how Ida affects the political situation in Honduras if extreme conditions develop with the heavy rains.  Already there are concerns that heavy rains could produce mudslides in the region.  Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala are very concerned as it was just 10 years ago that the late season Hurricane Mitch killed nearly 12,000 people in the region and caused great economic misery.   The official forecast then has the storm exit the northeastern coast of Honduras and then hug the Yucatan peninsula as it moves north toward the Yucatan Channel by Monday. 

Tropical Storm Ida Water Vapor Loop

Now, there are variables.  First off, the storm will be over land for the better part of two days at least.  It is not out of the question that the storm falls apart over that time.  If the storm moves more slowly, then it not only would  increase the probability of flooding in Honduras and Nicaragua, it would also increase the liklihood that Ida gets killed.  But, if it does follow the forecast track and does enter the Gulf of Mexico, then it certainly would become a threat to the US coast.  The models are all over the place.  I analyzed one claiming a landfall in the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday.  I’ve analyzed another that takes it north of the Yucatan Channel by Tuesday and then has it loop back toward Cuba.  The hurricane models have a variety of solutions with some keeping it over land and crossing the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche while others have some form of the current forecast.  I would take the current forecast track with a grain of salt because the models generally have a hard time initializing a developing storm and climatology may also be coming into play as well creating a bias given the time of year.  With regard to the time of year, fronts become stronger than in the summer and are more likely to make their way into the Gulf.  By Tuesday, a cold front is expected to be moving into the Northwest Gulf and that may serve to pick up the storm and carry it up and along it toward the Northeast Gulf Coast.  Then again, there is that one model that I noted that suggested a storm meandering northwest of Cuba, which would play out the scnario of the storm getting by-passed by the early to mid week front.   Intensity forecasts are another story altogether.  There are environmental issues and water temperatures may be an issue, certainly more so than one would expect in the summer months.  There is a lot of time with Ida which means there are lots of potential scenrios.  Oh…BTW….a tropical storm or a hurricane may have a male or female name but it is gender neutral.   It drives me crazy when I hear reporters refer to a tropical cyclone as “she.”  It is an “it” and that is the only pronoun that is appropriate….but try telling that to the media.

Tropical Storm Ida Spaghetti Model

WTNT41 KNHC 050235
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT PENETRATION OF THE STORM…THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF IDA HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PROMINENT COLD-TOPPED CDO
AND SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A RECENT
SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED A BANDING-TYPE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB BUT THESE
ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE RULES OF THE TECHNIQUE.  BASED ON THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM…THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED AND THERE REMAINS A SHORT PERIOD PRIOR TO
LANDFALL FOR IDA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.  IDA IS PROJECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WATERS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN…HOWEVER…BECAUSE
IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE ITS
TRANSIT OVER LAND.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6.  IDA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS…THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…BUT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 12.5N  83.1W    55 KT
12HR VT     05/1200Z 12.9N  83.6W    60 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N  84.0W    40 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N  84.4W    30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.1N  84.6W    25 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N  85.0W    35 KT…OVER WATER
96HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

Typhoon Melor Leaves Japan Behind;Former Typhoon Parma Still Taking Filipino Lives October 8, 2009

Click on Image for most recent W. Pacific IR Loop

See latest storm info and story on rising death toll from Typhoon Parma-over 100 dead in Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

Typhoon Melor crossed the Japanese Island of Honshu relatively quickly but still brought very heavy rain and gusty winds.  At least three people lost their lives as a result of Typhoon Melor.  The forecast track for Typhoon Melor was pretty much on the money with a landfall early Thursday morning with winds topping at 139 kmh or 86 mph south of Nagoya, Japan.  The wave heights were some 9 meters, or 30 feet.  The Typhoon Melor prognastic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent with the idea that the storm will quickly transform from a tropical cyclone into an extra-tropical storm as it continues to race to the northeast.  Due to its rapid movement, the effects of the storm will subside across Japan by the end of the day. It’s moving so rapidly that the JTWC has issued its final warning for Typhoon Melor.  Commuter train service was haulted Thursday morning in Tokyo but will be restored by the afternoon rush hour.  Toyota shut down plants for the day but operations should resume quickly.  Shipping interests also will be returning to normal as the seas begin to subside.  Hokkaido will feel the effects of Melor will persist even though its losing its tropical characteristics because the structure will not change the windy and heavy rain aspects of the storm.

Parma Forecast Track

Meanwhile, to the south, the remnant of Typhoon Parma (JTWC discussion) remains parked over the northern Philippines.  Early Thursday morning, convection began to explode over parts of the island as the storm center had drifted just off the northeastern coast of the nation.  Wednesday had been relatively benign an clean up operations began from Tropical Storm Ketsana over a week ago.  The heavy rain produced by now Tropical Depression Parma brought more landslides that killed at least 6 more people, including a man who was doing clean up work and also several small children who were buried in their homes.    The storm is expected to continue to linger over the Philippines throughout the day before it moves to the west and finally away from the drenched nation on Friday.  Thereafter, it should regain some strength as it moves toward Vietnam, which also suffered from flooding and deaths due to Tropical Storm Ketsana. 

Depression 21 Forecast Track

Meanwhile, if you look at the color enhanced infrared satellite loop above, you will notice two other areas of interest to the east-southeast of the Philippines that appear to be candidates for development.  The largest of the two is to the east of the Philippines and is showing up quite prominently on the satellite loop.  It has been designated Depression 21 and is forecast to have some development but the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests a more northward movement and it is not expected to affect land at this time.  However, to its south and east is another system that looks suspicious to me.  I’m sure the JTWC will begin issuing reports on it over the next 48-72 hours.

Parma Parked Over Philippines; Typhoon Makes Turn Toward Japan October 6, 2009

Parma(pepeng) Satellite Image 1130Z 1006 Still looks rather impressive

For a more recent update on Typhoon Melor as it makes landfall in Japan and Parma still in the Philippines, CLICK HERE

Water Vapor Image 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

The tropical storm formally known as Typhoon Parma has followed the general track that I outlined several days ago.  The satellite image above shows that the storm still has a very impressive structure considering that it has spent much time of cooling, upwelling waters and has not been completely over the water for some time.  The satellite water vapor image and loop is not overly impressive as the storm center is now over land in the Luzon province of the Philippines. This recent news report says its not over the Philippines and won’t make landfall, but the satellite says otherwise. So far, Parma has taken 22 Filipino lives.   A ship sank in the rough South China Sea, courtesy of Parma  You can detect some convection that shows up a little better on the Infrared color satellite image above. 

Click Image for Most Recent Color IR Loop

Parma has reacted as I suggested that it might a few days ago and as the GFS model has been consistently suggesting over time.  The NOGAPS also came around to that way of thinking but the official forecast from the JTWC did not reflect this potential in its official forecast until this morning, though they did make mention of it in their discussion.  While Parma is located over the Philippines, the threat of heavy rains will persist.  Parma dropped very heavy rain in the southern portions of Taiwan and the mountainous regions of the Philippines will be under the threat of landslides until the storm gets picked up by an expanding ridge in China which will take the storm to the west back into the South China Sea.  A note for those of you in Southeast Asia:  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below indicates that the environment in the South China Sea will be conducive to re-intensification as Parma moves westward toward mainland Asia.

Parma(pepeng)Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click image for latest update

WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CON-
VECTIVE SIGNATURE CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TS PARMA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A BREAK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARMA'S RECENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 675 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 060935Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH CAPTURED THE SYSTEM JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B.  AS TYPHOON MELOR CRESTS ITS SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LUZON.
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME ENERGY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
    C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL START TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY AS PARMA CURRENTLY SITS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE EGRR TRACKER
PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND THE EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE
ECMWF.//
NNNN

W Pac Infrared Satellite 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

Typhoon Melor continues to progress as forecast.  The slight interaction with Parma that caused Parma to slide farther south and southeast back to the Philippines resulted in a slight northwestward hitch in the path of Melor as it moved across the northwestern Philippines Sea.  The result of this is that the curving of motion took place farther west than earlier anticipated and the northeastward track has now set the stage for the Typhoon to run up the largest Japanese Island of Honshu and eventually close to Tokyo.  However,  as the storm rounds the edge of the ridge of high pressure that is steering it, Melor starts to get sheered by unfavorable upper level winds.  The latest satellite imagery indicates this deterioration has already begun.  As it accelerates northeast, it will encounter land after landfall south of Kyoto,  Japan and continue to interact with the Japanese mainland and come into a hostile environment as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.  The fact that it will be going through a deterioration stage will mean only minimal typhoon strength winds as it goes across Japan and the fact that it will be increasing in forward speed will limit its rainfall potential.  Nevertheless, the Japanesese topography should enhance the rainfall potential, particularly on the eastern slopes of the mountains and so heavy rain is likely only the eastern third of Japan. 

Typhoon Melor 1130Z 1006 Losing Some Symmetry

WDPN34 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THOUGH RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ERODE IN THE
NORTHWESTWERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AS TY MELOR IS CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DIVORAK FIXES

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click on image for latest update

BY PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. IN ADDITION, THE SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 113 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, TY MELOR WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MELOR WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER, THOUGH IT DOES TRACK
CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//