Memorial Day Weather Forecast Update; Big Baseball Trade! May 25, 2008

Here is the SPC guidance for the severe outlook for Monday morning until Tuesday morning.  It’s pretty much as I outlined previously.  Our ridge breaks down as a front approaches.  We will have heating to the upper 80′s Monday afternoon producing friendly white puffies.  But, as we get into the late afternoon and evening, some of those puffies may get bigger and fatter and be not so friendly as isolated t’storms pop up.  As the front approaches Monday evening, our rain/t’storm chances will be enhanced.  Even though the boundary is coming through at night, out ahead of it with the heating and elevated humidity levels, the storms may become more scattered in nature.  It would not be out of the question for a couple of the storms to be rather strong in the evening and overnight.  I wouldn’t fret about any activities for most of Monday and certainly not Sunday.  Just keep in mind their may be a couple of guys on the prowl late Monday if you have any late Memorial Day plans.  Tuesday the boundary slowly moves through and doesn’t get too far south so rain and t’storms will be in the cards. But by then, the Holiday Weekend will be in the books.  We’ll keep you up to date on the Monday night situation as it unfolds. 

It’s Graduation Time:  Congratulations to all of the high school and college graduates.  Especially for Hillary and also the Great Professor’s Queen, who made it through law school with flying colors.  Good luck to all. Now, Hillary…get a job!…and Queen Kelly…pass the Bar Exam!

I saw Gasoline Prices were over $4.00 in many places Saturday as Snow White and I did our part to conserve fuel by doing our sculling on the river.  Not too many boats out there and I’m not sure if it’s due to high gas prices or because the river’s been so high or it’s been cool but there were many empty boat slips.  But the river is falling, the debris is clearing up and the temperatures are rising.  I suspect that the boaters will be out in force soon, if they can afford it.  If you want to see a breakdown of where the cost of a gasoline comes from, I’ve got a couple of sources in the previous post.

How is this For a Trade?  When I lived in Greenville, Mississippi there was a minor league baseball team called the Greenville Bluesman.  I don’t think they even exist any more.  There was maybe 20 people at any given game.  Well, they traded a player for a box of pheasant.  That was the ultimate trade. How’d you like to be that guy.  Well, on Friday, a guy got traded from a team in Canada to a team in Laredo, Texas for a box of ten bats.  It’s bad enough for a team to think your value is a few baseball bats but then to add insult to injury….they trade you to the streets of Laredo!!  Turns out his value to the Canadian team was inhibited by the fact that the player had a criminal record that prevented him from even entering the country. So, it’s off to Laredo where the history is rich with outlaws….though I’m not so sure Laredo has a rich baseball tradition.

Player traded for 10 Bats



Isn’t this a great logo?

Memorial Day Weather Forecast Update; The Cost of Gasoline May 24, 2008

As of late night Friday, the forecast looks right on the money.  Good looking Saturday with mid to upper 70′s.  Sunday we jump to the mid 80′s and Monday to the upper 80′s.  With temperatures pushing towards 90, its not out of the question to see a few afternoon guys popping up with the heat. However, we will continue to be dominated by a ridge of high pressure, which is sinking air.  I haven’t looked at the calculations because it’s so far out, but whether or not we reach the convective temperature will be questionable.  The sinking of the air under the ridge may be such that the convective temperature will not be acheived.  I had a question about severe weather after that and what I see is that our ridge is scheduled to squash a bit and move east. 

A little upper low will be allowed to wander through Monday night. With the heat of the day this may be sufficient to trigger t’storms.  Then on Tuesday, the ridge will have shifted and squashed enough to allow for a frontal boundary to slip down across the area. It will be a slow mover and typically there would be little waves moving across the boundary.  So, Tuesday would have a risk for storms as well.  At this juncture, there is nothing from a general scan that jumps out at me that would suggest a general bad weather situation other than thunderstorms. My best guess at this early time would be that perhaps a few storms may get tumultuous enough to cause some trouble.

But the story remains the same..don’t worry about that now.  Enjoy the Holiday Weekend and take time to remember why it is a holiday.  Brave, Patriotic, Americans from the Revolutionary War to the current conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have paid the ultimate sacrifice so that we may have such a weekend.  The least we can do is pause to remember.

Gasoline Prices:

So much has been written about the price of gasoline.  We hear cries of price gouging by the oil companies and such.  Under that line of thinking, then in 1999 when the price of oil was somewhere between 10 and 20 dollars a barrel and our gas was about a dollar a gallon, one would have to surmise that the oil companies didn’t feel like making money.  Truth is, the oil companies almost always have a profit margin of between 5 and 10 percent.  ExxonMobil is a shade above that but the industry average right now is about 8 percent.  It’s just the dollars have gotten so large that such a small percentage creates huge profits that are mind boggling.  However, most of the retail outlets of gasoline are not owned by the large oil companies.  An exception I can think of is Speedway, owned by Ashland and I think Marathon owned by Maraton. But those companies typically aren’t thought of as the big guys. They got out because teh margins were too small and they didn’t want to get into the convenience store business.  Most of the gas stations are not operated or owned by the major oil companies. So…where does our money go to a gallon of gas?

This is interesting. It’s a link to the California Energy Commission.  One would think that the state of California was not colluding with anyone with these numbers.  It shows charts regarding where each of our pennies go when we fill up.  The latest on this chart as of this print is May 19.  It’s a little short of detail because it combines profits and cost for refining and also for marketing and distribution.  But, even so, according the the state of California, branded gasoline of profit and costs in these areas only make up $.25 of the final retail price of $3.95.  It’s even less for unbranded gas.  They claim that there is actually a $.03 loss for marketing and distribution cost and profit and a total of that combined with refining costs and profits of $.25.  I’m curious as to why the refining profits and costs are just $.19 for branded gas but 50% higher for unbranded gas at $.28.

Anyway, it’s an interesting look and, unless you think that the state of California is cooking the books, may be eye-opening and counter intuitive. 

Hey, before I provide the link…I’d give my advice. Stay here in town, enjoy all of the resources of Louisville and spend quality time with your friends and family. Enjoy the weather. All of those things don’t cost a thing yet are priceless.

Cost of Gasoline in California 

Here is an interesting article with different numbers but the same conclusion. It also verifies much of what I mentioned:

What Makes Up the Cost of Gasoline?

Memorial Day Weekend Weather Forecast May 23, 2008

For Friday a weak upper low will zip down in the northwesterly flow.  There is just a hint of moisture and clouds should thicken from the top down.  There may be a chance for a few light sprinkles or showers late. The biggest deal is that the temperatures will be held down a bit from our fine conditions Thursday.  But,  long awaited ridge of high pressure will build in taking us to the upper 70′s to near 80 on Saturday. Sunday it will be in the mid to upper 80′s and Monday will be in the upper 80′s.  Notice I said nothing about rain. Any big storms you see out in the plains over the weekend, do not worry, they should ride up and over the ridge, leaving us high and dry with lots of sun.

In other words, Don’t worry about the Weather and have a great weekend with friends and family.

 

But…do yourself a favor….take a moment at some time and pause and reflect what Memorial Day is all about.  The people for whom the day is for are the reason that we are able to have such a great holiday.