Here’s the 4PM updated map from the SPC and it’s not much different from the last one. The reason that they have us in the slight risk is because big storms blowing up well west and southwest of here could possibly hold together as they move into our area. But there are several inhibiting factors that will make it difficult to sustain the storms at a high level in our area. First off, we have big time dry air. Our dewpoint at 6 pm was 45 while down in Arkansas it was in the 70′s. The mid 50 dewpoints though were only down in Owensboro so we will have moisture moving into our area, its just questionable if the associated potential energy(CAPE) will be sufficient to support big storms. Probably not. Then there is the dynamic which far and away will be best to our south and southwest. That is the strong wind energy associated with the jet stream as well as winds changing wind speed and or direction over a given distance, vertical or horizontal. That is what is known as shear and its not the great around here. Then, of course, the timing of the system is well after midnight…probably around 4AM and Mr. Sun will still be in bed so he won’t be any help. Still, if the storms initiate strong enough and there is enough support, its possible, not probable that a couple may hold together and cause some monkey business. If they did it would probably be gusty winds and maybe small hail. Overall I’m not that worked up about this but I will be here all night should these big guys become troublemakers around here. I think the Ozarks or say, southern Missouri through Arkansas, maybe northern Mississippi or even west Tennessee may have a worrisome night…again.
As before, here is the day one outlook from the SPC. It will give you access to the text data from the SPC as well as the probability maps associated with the general map shown above. This link will automatically to change to reflect the latest day one outlook, so if you check it on another day, it will have changed to whatever is current that particular day.