Tropical Storm Kyle’s Troubles; Uncle Tom’s Misrepresentation; Super Collider’s Demise? September 27, 2008

Hurricane Ike Turned This Fishing Boat Into the SS Minnow

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

for updates on hurricane kyle, CLICK HERE and scroll to most recent heading of Hurricane Kyle

The area of low pressure followed the forecast and moved inland and is now to our east-southeast. Light showers have largely been confined to the east and southeast of Louisville and have been largely insignificant. This trend will continue. See, moisture being tapped in the Atlantic has a tough time getting over the Appallacian Mountains. Anyway, the weekend looks good for activities with cool nights and warm afternoons, though not hot like we saw earlier in the week. The big chilldown is still in the cards for the early to mid part of next week. The transition in the first part of the week may provide a much better chance for area rain.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 2115Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0926 5PM

Tropical Storm Kyle: Kyle continues to have problems. The tropical storm is stiil

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0926 18Z

in the grips of upper level winds that have messed it up. The visible satellite image shows clearly that the left side of the storm is devoid of convection and even largely absent of clouds. If it had come off of the Dominican Republic sooner then it may have not faced such a hostile environment. So, it’s Kyle’s own fault that it’s having such a tough time. The vertical structure is skewed to the northeast and, until or if it can stack itself up properly, it’s not going become a hurricane. As it moves even with the area of low pressure, formerly Invest 94, that is in the Eastern US, then the upper shears will give it an opportunity to get itself righted and perhaps become a hurricane. That’s what the forecast calls for. But, I’m not so sure its going to have enough time. While the forward speed forecast has been slowed a bit, its still going to be moving at a pretty good clip and as quickly as it moves into a good environment it will move back into one that is not so forgiving. About a third of the models want to make it a hurricane with a couple even up to Cat 2. The ultimate track continues to depend on the ridge in the Atlantic. If it’s fat enough and strong enough, then Kyle could threaten New England. But most of the guidance and the official forecast keeps it just off the main coast and moves it into Nova Scotia. This scenario would bring rough seas and surf to New England but the storm itself would largely be Canada’s problem. Look to the bottom for the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion and the Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z.

Big Bang or Big Bust?

Super Collider in Super Trouble? The Large Hadron Collider that brought fears of the world’s demise getting swallowed up into a self-induced black hole is in a bit of a pickle. I know of people who prayed that if the start-up of the device was not part of God’s plan to not let it go forth. Well, US Grant had a pet phrase, “man proposes, God disposes.” Perhaps that holds true. At least it is true for the near term as the very large and complicated machine has a major glitch. An electrical connection failed and caused a section of the magnets associated with the accelerator to fail. Early reports were that the big electron race track would be out of commission for two months. Now, some reports push the start up back to next year. The bigger they come, the harder they fall and the more complicated the machine, the greater the risk of failures. So, if you were waiting for the end of the world, you’ll have to wait a bit longer. Here’s the story.

On This Date in History: On this date in 1852, the first successful stage dramatization of Harriet Beecher Stowe’s Uncle Tom’s Cabin took place in Troy, NY. The key word here is “successful.” Stowe herself had tried to bring the novel to the stage but it failed. How could that be? The book sold over 300,000 copies in the first year. Well, if you have read the novel, then you know that it was a huge attack on the slave culture. President Lincoln, upon meeting Stowe said, “so this is the little woman who made this big war.” Obviously that was a bit of an overstatement and unfair to put that war on her head. But, it did play a role. While she had only seen one plantation, Stowe went to former slave Frederick Douglass for help in detailing slave life. Stowe was inspired by the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850 that allowed for slaves who had escaped to non-slave states in the north to be returned to slavery. Hers was the first glimpse of what slave life was really like. It brought to the attention of northerners of the brutality of many plantations and the inhuman condition brought to the slaves. This stands in sharp contrast to modern ideas.

Often in popular culture you hear the phrase “I’m no Uncle Tom” or a reference to someone as “an Uncle Tom” in derisive terms alluding to someone who knuckles under and does the white man’s bidding. But, the character of Uncle Tom in Stowe’s novel was anything but the modern vision. He was a strong figure described by many reviewers as a “Christlike figure” who was actually killed by his owner, Simon LeGree. So, how did we get such a different, opposite view of Uncle Tom? I am speculating here but I suspect that the reason Stowe’s version of Uncle Tom failed is because it followed her novel. Uncle Tom was portrayed as the strong, proud man that she had created. But the versions of the book that came to stage, and later film, that were successful presented a Tom who was a shuffling, subservient old man. My guess is that audiences, even those who opposed slavery, did not want to see a strong black man opposing and standing up to authority. That feeling remained prevalent well into the early 20th century and thus, films followed the same recipe. So, when someone is called an “Uncle Tom” it should signify characterstics of strength of characater, integrity and self-worth. Instead, due to stage and film adaptations, being called an “Uncle Tom” holds an extremely negative connotation.

It’s a shame because the novel held such significance. Stowe was attacked in print and vilified by the pro-slavery crowd and received “mountains of threatening mail.” One package was sent to her containing the severed ear of a slave! But, it’s nothing new. Today films that are supposedly based on history are often fudged, altered and fictionalized. There are other movies that make one think that they are historical when, in fact, they are largely nonsense. Do not depend on popular culture, films, TV or even the internet for your history. Read published works instead. Go to the primary source. The sad story of the evolution of Uncle Tom is a great example of how popular culture can distort or even destroy the truth.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON…WITH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB…AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB…WITH SFMR WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING…KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS 345/11…BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH. KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER…IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF ANYTHING…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING KYLE FROM THE EAST…WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS…THE SHIPS…HWRF…AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME…KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION…AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.6N 68.7W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W 55 KT

24HR VT 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W 65 KT

72HR VT 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W 35 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Home Sweet Home? Stay Off The Phone and Stand By Your Man! September 25, 2008

No Place Like Home?

Here is a whole mess of photos of people returning to Galveston Texas following about 10 days of exile after Hurricane Ike. (CLICK HERE) For a large number of Hurricane Ike Damage Photos and video from Galveston, Bolivar Peninsula, Houston and Louisville, CLICK HERE

Not Feeling Well After Long Sculling Expedition

Snow White and I did a very long row Wednesday evening. My hands ache, ankles, wrists and backside hurt. While the weather was great, suddenly everyone else found out the river was it was great too after two days of secrecy. Sailboats were everywhere and there were lots of pleasure boats and runabouts. Then there were two barges. Pretty rough out there but we persevered for several miles. One thing about sculling on the river is that once you’re up river, you can’t just stop because your hands hurt or you are tired. You have no choice but to keep going until you get back.

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

Thursday will be another good day though clouds will increase. The area of low

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

pressure that I’ve been talking about off the SE Coast got a bit deeper on Wednesday and is trying to take on tropical characteristics. This has gotten the attention of the National Hurricane Center as winds offshore have been up into Tropical Storm force with gusts along the coast of some 35-45 mph. From the models, it appears that the 850 temps will remain rather chilly so it will probably be something of a cold core low with some other

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

tropical features. I wouldn’t be surprised if they label it a sub-tropical storm and issue advisories accordingly. It is now called Invest 94.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

This development really doesn’t affect our forecast much. This guy in whatever form it is will come inland and stay to our Southeast and East. We will get an increase in clouds on Friday with perhaps a light largely insignificant shower or two. It looks to us as if the clouds will stick around for much of Saturday. So, we probably won’t get out of the 70′s for Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be improved with warmer conditions but not as hot as we’ve seen. Then there is some indication that a good cold front comes down for the early to middle part of next week, though we are mulling some of the data which tries to make it pretty cool but we have to consider that we are in a transition in seasons and the models sometimes act goofy. So, we’ll see how it shakes out. Invest 93 is very much up in the air as to whether it develops or not.

Stay Off The Phone...You can Live Without It

Foolishness

Text Message Fiasco: One thing that I didn’t mention but have before is my disdain for the jetskis. Either the guys riding them don’t pay attention, don’t care or deliberately make a nuisance of themselves. Well, another thing that I don’t care for is cell phones. I told Snow White that I had gone well over 40 years without a cell phone and I didn’t need one but if she could find one for $10 a month I’d get one. She found one for $9.95. So now I have a cell phone and i don’t like it when people call because it uses up my minutes. And most of the time it’s to tell me something that could have waited. Most of the time they are driving. I see more people tootling around in their cars talking on the phone and paying attention to the road as much as jetskiers pay attention to the river. Now, we have the new craze..text messaging. This is even more annoying. I’ve seen people having little secret conversations at their work with other people in the building. They sit there and giggle like school kids in the back of the classroom. When you text message, your concentration is taken away from whatever it is you supposed to be doing…like paying attention. Just the other day, a teenager was killed when he was struck by a car. Witnesses say the kid walked right in front of a vehicle….never looking up to see where he was going…because he was concentrating on his text message.

Here’s the Story of the kid killed while text messaging in Florida.

Caused By Text Messaging Engineer?

I’m not sure why a teenager needs a cell phone. It seems like it creates more problems than it solves. But, I have to admit I can see where a kid would like to text message. But I fail to see how an adult would like to text message. I don’t get the face book stuff for adults either…especially those over 25. But, in another recent tragedy, not only was an apparent text messenger killed but more than two dozen also lost their lives. The investigation is continuing but the apparent operating hypothesis of why a Los Angeles area commuter train blew through red lights and then head on into a freight train was because the engineer was text

messaging with a couple of teenagers.

Here is the story of the NTSB investigation into the text messaging activity of an on-duty engineer.

Caused By Cell Phone Using Truck Driver?

If all of that is not enough, here is the story of a truck driver who was on his cell phone earlier this week in Florida. He was looking at his phone then looked up to see a school bus. He hit it without stopping. Bus and truck caught fire, killing a 13 year old girl.

While I’m in a grumpy mood….how about this unbelievable story…

There’s this national televangelist in Georgia. Her husband’s name is Bishop

Marry Tom on a Game Show?

Thomas Weeks III. He recently got divorced. His wife filed for divorce because the preacher was accused of choking his then wife, Juanita Bynum. He was also accused of pushing her and stomping on her in a parking lot and of making terroristic threats. He pleaded guilty to the aggravated assault charge and completed his sentence of community service. Okay…sad story….unusual in that you wouldn’t expect that from a pastor but then again, we’ve heard a lot of stuff about ministers on TV over the years. Here is the kicker….Now ladies…you too can be the bride of Bishop Weeks! I mean, after the above advertisement, why not? Perhaps you can get your boxing license at the same time! All you have to do is appear on the new reality show called “Who Will be the Next Mrs Weeks?!” This search by Weeks will be for wife number 3. Perhaps contestants should consult with wives number 1 and two before going on the air. I mean, from what we know, if this show is truly reality then perhaps it should have a rating like they do in movies.

Joe, Remember Herbie?

Senator Joe Biden Needs to Read This Date in History! You probably heard this but Senator Biden explained to Katie Couric (See Video Clip) how that after the stock market crash in 1929, Franklin Roosevelt went on TV and leveled with the American people. Uh…Senator Biden…Television was not introduced to the public until 1939 and really didn’t find its way into homes until well after the second world war. Oh..and one other thing. Franklin Roosevelt was not president until 1933. Herbert Hoover was president in 1929. What Biden didn’t say was that FDR whacked on Hoover even after he had won the election. Ask yourself this. If Gov. Palin or Sen. McCain had said this, would the press pretty much ignore it or call it a gaffe? Or would they suggest that Palin didn’t know anything or McCain was too old? Be honest.

Today’s This Date in History: If you don’t know the story of Benedict Arnold, he was a very good General for the colonists. In fact, he was one of General Washington’s favorites. He got involved in an act of treason involving an attempt to turn over West Point to the British. You can read all about Benedict Arnold by reading THIS BIOGRAPHY. What you won’t read about are the details regarding his wife.

Showed General Washington the Goods

Arnold married a then 18 year old Peggy Shippen in 1779. Her family is suspected of being British sympathizers. She had been a big part of the social scene in Philadelphia and had a boyfriend named John Andre who was also a British officer. Just so happens that the go-between for Arnold and the British was none other than Andre, who was captured with the whole plot stuffed in his sock. Peggy also corresponded with her old flame, assisting in the negotiations. Arnold escaped but Andre was hanged 8 days later. When the plot was revealed to General Washington, he just happened to be expecting to visit the Arnolds. He found the general gone and Peggy put on a show. She went off like a raving lunatic using wild gestures. One historian also reports that during her performance, her clothes separated in such a way as to “reveal charms that should have been hidden.” Naturally, Washington fell for the scam and declared the woman innocent. Alexander Hamilton knew Shippen and supported Washington’s assessment saying that Shippen had sweetness and beauty with “all the loveliness of innocence.”

In the end, the Arnolds lived in England on a pension but Benedict was largely shunned since most Brits weren’t too keen on anyone who was a traitor, even if their side was the beneficiary. Somehow I suspect that his wife found a way to return to the social scene.

Galveston Has A Long Road To Recovery From Hurricane Ike; We’ll Wait a Long Time For Decent Rain; Woman Doesn’t Wait Long to See Husband Shot Down September 24, 2008

Seabrook, TX Folks Try Sympathy Plea With Low-Life Looters

if you’re looking for hurricane ike damage photos and video, CLICK HERE...then scroll down through the blog entries and you’ll find lots of links from around the country. some of the slide shows get updated regularly.

The upper low that I was speaking of the last few days is still expected to behave the same way…move into the SE and come close enough to Louisville to bring clouds and cool down the temperatures. The only difference is that now we have knuckled under and put some showers in the forecast for the first part of the weekend. They will be scattered in nature and largely insignificant. Don’t build and ark just yet. The NAM spits out less than a tenth of an inch and the Tue 12Z GFS had nothing but it was trending toward enough moisture moving in to warrant the slight change. The GFS is advertising a sharp cool down in the middle of next week but hey…it’s a week away and it is the GFS and we are in the middle of a season change so the long term models sometimes want to run home to their climate mommas, thus messing things up down the road. We’ll wait and see. Possible? yes…but don’t stock up on the firewood just yet.

Sept 1900 Memorialized On Galveston

Hurricane Ike is one guest to Galveston that no one will forget. I’ll tell a not so secret secret. Galvestonians have a code name to distinguish the genuine item from an import. It’s BOI…as in BEE-OH-EYE. It stands for “Born on the Island.” I think Houston Astros pitcher Brandon Backe is a BOI. Anyway, after Ike moved ashore, Galveston has been pretty much closed. That is part of the reason so many people didn’t leave. They didn’t want to wait for days or even weeks to return to their homes. So, people are being let back on the Island soon. But listen to this quote of what they can expect:

Officials said today that returning residents should prepare to be utterly self-reliant, bringing their own food, water and gasoline. They described the opposite of a sentimental journey: residents will encounter mosquitoes, rats and snakes; traffic could be chaotic and back up for hours on I-45 and water will not be drinkable for months.

Makes everyone want to return home, right? What I didn’t include was that people on the west end of Galveston are still allowed to visit their homes (though many of those are vacation homes) on a “look and leave” basis and those on the east side of the entrance to Galveston Bay on Bolivar Peninsula have no home to look at so they have no choice but to leave. Here is the full story from the Houston Chronicle and another from the New York Times on Galveston’s clean up. Here is a link to the NYTimes slide show that accompanies the story.

On This Date In History: This date in 1861 was not a good day for flying. At 3:30 AM on April 20, 1861 Thaddeus S C Lowe decided it was a good time to test his new 20,000 cubic foot balloon called Enterprise. I’m not sure if the balloon was shown in the Star Trek movie that showed all of the previous vessels called Enterprise. I don’t think that I recall that being the case. Anyway, he takes off from Cincinnati before the sun comes up and his little test mission turned into a misadventure. He got whisked away by 100 mph winds aloft that sent him to South Carolina. He thought he’d get welcomed like a crowned prince like the Wizard of Oz. Instead he was arrested as a spy. Apparently the professor was absent minded as he had no clue that 6 days before Fort Sumnter had fallen and the Civil War had begun. Fellow academics convinced the state authorities that Lowe was on a scientific mission and they let him go.

I’m not sure if Lowe was ticked at being arrested or if his buddies were

Lowe

wrong because Lowe promptly went north and became the leader of the Union’s Army of the Potomac Aeronautic Corps of balloonists. Lowe designed and built several balloons for a whole Union fleet with the largest being the 32,000 cubic foot Intrepid that required 1200 yards of silk. This was a group of mainly civilians who made some 3000 flights in the first two years of the war. They would tether up and view the battlefield from aloft and then use a telegraph to wire down the enemy position and direct artillery fire. It was the forerunner to aerial reconnaissance. In fact, later in WWI, the airplane was used initially for that purpose until it was discovered you could drop bombs from planes or put machine guns on the plane and shoot down enemy planes and blimps. Anyway, on this date in 1861 Lowe himself was shot down. Somehow he ended up behind enemy lines. I don’t know if he got caught up in another 100 mph wind or enemy fire cut his tether or if he was just going on another “scientific excursion” but down he went and he was captured again. His wife Leontine was a witness to the whole thing. Did she sit and cry? Did she hope that academics would again get her husband set free? Nope. Instead, she personally led a raid of nighttime commandos who moved in and rescued the professor.

Before the war, Lowe had established a reputation for new theories and study in Chemistry, Meteorology and Aviation. He had a dream of a transatlantic balloon flight. I guess he got rich because after the war, he moved to Pasadena, CA and built a 24,000 foot house. He established a railroad to Mount Wilson and tinkered in all sorts of things. They’ve named a Mountain for him and the Lowe Observatory among other things. Funny thing is the guy ended up living with his daughter in her Pasadena home as he lost his fortune. Makes you wonder if now California will rename its mountains something like Mount AIG or Mount Lehman Brothers.

Invest 93 IR 0924 315Z

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0924 00Z

Invest 93: This guy at times has looked good on the satellite but it still has not been determined to have enough of a closed low to make it a depression. The image above shows some promise but doesn’t look as good as some of the stuff I saw during Tuesday. The spaghetti models all want to make it a tropical storm but fewer like the hurricane status. Tracks are similar with several still threatening New England. But, if this guy doesn’t get off the island soon, it may have some trouble. Several of the models we use for our daily forecast are less enthusiastic about its development but its something to watch due to a possible threat to the northeast. Here’s what the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday evening…which is almost identical to what they said for the past 2 days.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0924 00Z

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO… 1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS AND COULD SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION…AND SINCE THAT TIME…ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER…CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…HAITI…THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/RHOME

Something of Interest in the Tropics; Yanks Take Ryder Cup; Current Financial Situation Not Unprecedented September 22, 2008

Gotta Like A camouflage wearing Guy Named Boo Signaling for a First Down on the Links

for hurricane ike damage photos and video, CLICK HERE and scroll down. Many of the slideshows update daily.

Last Friday, Snow White and I went on an excursion to Springfield, KY just because our power was still out (we got it back Sat. Night@8:49 pm…nearly a week after we lost it) and we both had the idea at the same time. So, we blew off our sculling expedition for the day and tootled down the road listening to my Sirius radio. As I heard updates on the Ryder Cup, it occurred to me that the US team would win simply because everyone said that they would lose and because of guys like Boo Weekley, JB Holmes, Anthony Kim and Kenny Perry as well as the other names not at the tip of the tongue of most casual golf fans. I had thought that perhaps if they lost, it would be because one of the stars failed miserably. Well, I’ll take credit for my fearless forecast and you can get a little local perspective by linking to THIS WEBSITE FOR A LOUISVILLE VIEW OF THE RYDER CUP WEEKEND. Its not something that you will find on most national websites.

If you didn’t get any rain this weekend, and you probably didn’t, then you are out of luck for much of the week ahead. At the end of the week, there is some indication that an area of low pressure will move into the SE from the Atlantic. At this time, it does not appear to be tropical in nature but its not totally unreasonable to think that could change. More significantly, many models show it moving onshore and continuing inland. At this time, it does not appear that it would get close enough to us to bring rain though some of the data try to bring it close enough that perhaps we can hold out some hope…not enough to put in the forecast…but something to consider as the week progresses. There is another system, currently called Invest 93.

Invest93 Spaghetti Model 0921 18Z

Invest 93: There was some indication through the weekend that the tropical

Invest93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0921 18Z

disturbance south of Puerto Rico could develop into a depression. Well, when the boys with the Hurricane Hunters flew out for a looksee, it was over Puerto Rico. Land, aerial and satellite observations suggest that winds may indeed be around depression level but that the circulation is not defined enough to warrant it being classified as a depression. However, the spaghetti models all indicate a track with a northerly component that would take the storm back over the water. The bad news is that 10 of the models make it a hurricane. The good news is that most do not take it to the East Coast…though if the current tracks hold…and they’ll probably change…then New England may be a concern.

Can it Happen Again?

One must consider that On This Date in History, Sept 22, 1938 New England and specifically Long Island were reeling from the Great New England Hurricane aka The Long Island Express which was a hurricane that came off of Africa wandered through the Bahamas and then north…the forecasters of the day thought it would turn out to sea. Most of the time at that far north latitude the coriolis force turns storms to the right. But…there was a big fat high in the Atlantic that would not allow such a turn. It did aid in the acceleration so the result was that Long Island got nailed by a Category 3 hurricane moving at 70 mph. 600 people in New England died. (here is more on the Long Island Express in 1938) Now, I am in no way suggesting that this guy will be a repeat or even that it will indeed even be a hurricane. What I am suggesting is that it has happened before and it had nothing to do with Global Warming. Just like it is tenuous at best for anyone, regardless of their expert credentials, to claim that Katrina had anything to do with Global Warming. Funny how when people try to make that claim they neglect to mention Hurricane Camille in 1969.

Speaking of things that have happened before…On This Date in 1907…The United States was in the midst of an economic crisis. At that time, there was no central bank or Federal Reserve. There had been some doofus who tried to corner the copper market and when that failed, all of the banks who made loans to back the scheme were in trouble. They started calling other loans. People lost confidence in the banks as several failed. A bailout was needed. At the time, President Theodore Roosevelt was claiming that everything was in great shape and was threatening a federal takeover of all trusts. Who comes to the rescue but J. Pierpont Morgan. He got together with his banking brethren and convinced them that they needed to work together to salvage the system in order to save all of their hides and the future of the nation. He also convinced the Secretary of the Treasury to pony up $25 million to the effort. The recession did not turn into a depression and the event led directly to the eventual establishment of the Federal Reserve. While the numbers are not as large…not the $700 billion to $1.2 Trillion being tossed around this time, the other numbers are not as large either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39%. We recently lost and gained less than one percent and politicians are running around trying to make comparisons to the Great Depression. In order to equal the fall of the 1907 panic, then a Dow of 11,400 would have to fall to 7000. So, while this is serious and potentially catastrophic and far reaching, the solution is not totally unprecedented. It’s just that before it was JP Morgan engineering a bailout with some government help and this time its the Federal Reserve and Uncle Sam engineering a bailout with some other private help. When you hear also of rumors that today’s problem was a plot by those who stand to profit, keep in mind that in 1907 it was rumored that the banks had caused the whole panic just to line their pockets.

Sometimes, news people say they need to give commentary to “give perspective” or a particular news event. Dan Rather used to defend journalists providing analysis instead of just reporting for that specific reason. Yet, it helps if those giving “analysis and perspective” had some perspective in the first place.

Here are some more articles relating to JP Morgan and the panic of 1907.

JP Morgan-Savior-The Panic of 1907

JP Morgan

Bear Stearns Bailout as it relates to JP Morgan in 1907 Panic

Panic of 1907