When Teddy Roosevelt Gave a Speech After Being Shot In Chest By Would Be Assassin October 15, 2010

If Not For The Case For The Spectacles of Teddy Roosevelt (like this set auctioned in 2005) the Name of John F. Schrank Might Be As Well Known as that of John Wilkes Booth

On This Date in History: Lost to much of the pages of history are attempted assassinations. (Here is a list of failed presidential assassinations) President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 was a former President who was running to get his old job back. He had filled the term of the assassinated President McKinley and finished his own term in 1908. In deference to the precedent set by President Washington, Teddy Roosevelt decided against running in 1908, instead promoting his Vice-President William Howard Taft who won handily. Teddy was not happy with the way in which Taft ran things and decided to challenge him for the Republican nomination for the 1912 election but power interests in the party which had fared better with Taft than Roosevelt, backed Taft and Roosevelt did not get the Republican nomination at the 1912 Republican Convention. So, he formed his own party, the Progressive Party, which came to be known as the “Bull Moose Party” after TR’s tough-guy bull-moose image. Roosevelt ended up getting more votes than Taft but the pair split the Republican vote which led to the election of Woodrow Wilson as President.

While on the campaign trail prior to the election, on October 14, 1912, Theodore Roosevelt got into a car after dining at a hotel in Milwaukee. He was headed to give a speech. When he turned to wave to the crowd, a shot rang out from the .38 caliber revolver in the hand of John F. Schrank. Schrank, a Bavarian-born immigrant, had been stalking Roosevelt since at least September 1912 when he left New York in pursuit of his prey .  It was reported that the assailant felt that no one should get more than two terms as president and had also been having dreams of William McKinley.  His dream supposedly occured on the September 6 anniversary of the assassination of President William McKinley which vaulted the then young Vice-President Roosevelt into office.  His dream was said to have involved McKinley in a coffin.  McKinley suddenly sat up straight and pointed to Roosevelt who was dressed like a monk.  The dead president floating around Schrank’s head then said, “This is my murderer. Avenge my death!”  So. Schrank did his best to follow the orders of the ghost in his dream.  When Roosevelt turned to the crowd from his car, it opened up an opportunity for Schrank to shoot the candidate at close range.

Chest X-Ray of Teddy Roosevelt Shows Location of Bullet That Was Never Removed

The shot struck Roosevelt squarely in the chest. But, in his breast pocket, Teddy had the thick,  folded up 50-page text of his planned 90 minute speech.  It must have been some pocket because, in addition to the 4-dozen sheets of paper the pocket also contained a metal spectacle case.  The bullet was slowed by the eye-glasses case and the thick manuscript.  The bullet, however, entered his body but it did not penetrate his heart. Initially, Roosevelt did not realize that he had been shot.  Once he had discovered that he was indeed the victim of a gunshot wound he still insisted on giving his speech. Using his experience as an avid hunter as a guide, he reasoned that since he was not coughing up blood, then no major organs were damaged.  Roosevelt survived an assassination attempt and had not been assassinated so, when he arrived on the podium. Teddy proudly showed the crowd the hole in his speech and thundered, “ it would take more than that to kill a Bull Moose!”   While the speech (text of speech) was abbreviated, most accounts report that Mr. Roosevelt still spoke before the crowd for 80-90 minutes and rebuffed attempts to get him to conclude the speech so he could go to the hospital for attention.  

Mrs. Medill McCormick and TR daughter Alice Roosevelt Longwell Leaving Mercy Hospital Oct 15, 1912 After Visting the Original Bull Moose

Only after he concluded his speech did Roosevelt finally go to the hospital in Milwaukee and reluctantly allowed for a tetnus injection.  On This Date in 1912, the former president was in Chicago’s Mercy Hospital where he stayed for observation for 8 days. the bullet was found lodged in tissue such that it would be more dangerous to attempt its removal.  The slug remained in Roosevelt’s body for the rest of his life.  After making the determination that the bullet would stay where it was,  Teddy was  released  from Mercy Hospital on October 23.  Both Woodrow Wilson and William Howard Taft suspended their campaigns until Roosevelt was released but they were back on the campaign trail with  just a little more than a week before the election.  While his opponents were back on the stump, TR was prevented from making important campaign stops.  Some speculate that his absence from the campaign trail in the critical final days may have influenced the election results.  In any event, Roosevelt was unable to convince enough Republicans to swing his way and the GOP vote was split between he and Taft.  While he received 88 electoral votes to the sitting president’s 8, Wilson skated to victory with 435 votes from the Electoral College.  However, Wilson’s popular vote total was about 6.3 million while, collectively, Taft and Roosevelt collected 7.6 million votes.  

Schrank Lived His Lonely Final 31 Years in a Mental Hospital Only To See the 2 Term Tradition Broken By Teddy's Cousin

Wilson went on to be re-elected in 1916, again with less than a majority of the popular vote.  He took in 49.2% of the vote and became a two term president never to receive a majority of the popular vote by a narrow 277-254 electoral victory over his Republican opponent, Charles E. Hughes.  18 times in US presidential elections has the winner not received a majority of popular votes since the popular vote was first reliably recorded in 1824.  So, it’s not that unusual.  However, only Woodrow Wilson, Grover Cleveland and Bill Clinton served two terms and never received a majority of the popular vote.  For his part, Schrank was whisked away to a mental institution where he remained for the rest of his life.  Apparently, no one came to visit him. His health began to fail in 1940 shortly after he learned that Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 5th cousin of Theodore Roosevelt, was going to run for a 3rd term as President of the United States. Schrank died at the Central State Mental Hospital in Waupun, Wisconson on September 16, 1943; about a year before FDR was elected to a 4th term.

Women’s Right To Vote Hinged On A Boy Listening to His Mother August 19, 2010

How Could Anyone Oppose These Babes?

These Guys Opposed the Chick Vote, But Wouldn't Show their Faces.

On This Date in History:

We’ve had the health care debate  and people were complaining that one side or the other may have an organized or orchestrated effort.   Now, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is suggesting that opponents to the mosque in New York City should be investigated to determine from whom their organized funding is coming.  Then, there is the argument as to whether the Tea Party is a ”grass roots effort” or a co-ordindated national movement.   The charge of “organization” comes up quite often in politics and the proper response may be , “so what?”  The Sons of Liberty was an orchestrated movement against the crown.  The Civil Rights movement was organized. The women’s suffrage movement was organized, but so were opposition groups. It has happened throughout history. Organization is what gets things done…that’s why there are political parties.  But, even with organizations, sometimes success or failure relating to a given topic may fall to an individual.

Burn became women's best friend, thanks to mom

In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose.

Febb Is An Unsung Heroine

On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to” be a good boy” and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote  the changed his vote and the amendment passed.  On this date in 1920, when the sun rose, the suffrage movement finally succeeded and women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb as it would most certainly make its presence known. But, truth be told, we should all perhaps thank Febb because the wisdom of women in the voting booth is most likely a necessary ingredient in making the nation a more perfect Union.

Weather Bottom Line: We really won’t have a warm front per se coming through today but just a return flow from the south as the old boundary washed out south of the region.  We most likely get up to around 90 or so today and then on Friday I suspect that, not only will we inch into the low 90′s but the humidity will again be an issue.  Saturday, a pre frontal trof will be lurking to our west so the prospects of it working in conjunction with higher heat and humidity to give us some afternoon t’storm activity will be enhanced.  The cold front itself will be creeping down here over night and then get bogged down in the region, either just to our north or south, either way, the mercury should be held down on Sunday with a chance of rain from time to time.

John Dillinger’s Infamy Lives With Rumors FBI Did NOT Get Their Man July 22, 2010

Dillinger's 1930 Ford Model A Sold for 165K in January 2010

On This Date in History: A funny thing about American history is that not only do we tend to celebrate heroes, but Americans also seem to celebrate the villains. George Washington was arguably the most important man in US history yet more people probably know about Billy the Kid than General Washington.   Movies are made about the exploits of Al Capone yet, the life of President US Grant, who shows up on the fifty dollar bill is either misrepresented or totally obscure to most Americans.  Some years ago, I had the opportunity to see the Bonnie and Clyde “death car”  though from the linked site, it may have been a fake. This guy  claimed it was the real thing and hauled it around in an 18-wheeler and charged people to come and look at it.   I didn’t pay but, since I was in the news, I got to see it up close, complete with bullet holes.  I was suprised at how small it was.  But, this guy got the tv station to give him free advertising as the tv station wanted to capitalize on viewers fascination with criminals of the past.  Of course, there was a famous movie with Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty about Bonnie and Clyde.  Also, there was a recent movie about John Dillinger starring Johnny Depp.  Like Billy the Kid and Bonnie and Clyde, Dillinger had a relatively short crime career yet he remains an icon in the international imagination.  Just this year, like the Bonnie and Clyde “death car” complete with bullet holes, a John Dillinger getaway car was sold at auction for $165,000.  July 22nd is a watershed day in the history of John Dillinger as it was supposedly the end of him.  But, there are those who think that it was only the end of his public life and not his real life.  Either way, as long as Hollywood and historians write about Dillinger and other criminal figures from the past, they will never die and their legends and myths may actually grow.

In the late 1920′s and 1930′s, lots of gangsters roamed the countryside. Public Enemy Number One was determined by the Bureau of Investigations, which in 1935 became the FBI. In 1934, the man who held the title was John Dillinger. While it didn’t take him long to top the list, he had to learn his trade through trial and error like any good craftsman. On June 10, 1933, Dillinger pulled his first bank job in Carlisle, IN. Two weeks later, he tried again but this one was botched in Monticello, Indiana. It is interesting that there is very little information available regarding the attempted hold up of a Marshall Fields in Monticello by Dillinger and William Shaw. I suppose its because it was a failed attempt and Americans only like to hear about wins, not losses.

McNutt had a bad feeling about Dillinger due to a harsh sentence

An interesting thing about Dillinger is that, even though he was Public Enemy Number 1, his career as a criminal didn’t really last all that long. He was put in jail in 1924 following the beating of Mooresville, IN grocer Frank Morgan by Dillinger and his good friend Edgar Singleton. They had been out boozing it up and jumped the guy. Dillinger got caught when, a few days after the assault on September 6, 1924, Dillinger brought attention to himself by inquiring as to the well being of Mr. Morgan. As it turns out, Morgan couldn’t identify his attackers, but Dillinger was tricked into confessing. Meanwhile, his buddy Ed pled not guilty. Ed was out of jail after a couple of years while Dillinger got 10-20 years for assault and 2-14 years for conspiracy to commit a felony. Some scholars think that the difference in sentences is what pissed off Dillinger and led him on a life of crime. Indiana Governor Paul McNutt thought that the sentence was so harsh that it might cause Dillinger to do anything once he was out of jail. Victim Morgan and the sentencing judge both thought that the sentence was pretty tough. By 1933, the pair joined 182 townfolk lobbying to let Dillinger loose and on May 22, 1933 John Dillinger was set free.

Some Hoosiers Made Certain that They Were Not Mistaken for Dillinger But Did the FBI Still Get the Right Man?

That’s the odd part. He was set free on May 22 1933 and within a few weeks, he was committing or at least trying to, commit worse crimes than he had done prior to his initial incarceration. Did prison create John Dillinger?  The fact that Dillinger failed in Monticello, IN was probably more associated with his lack of experience than anything else, but one can’t know for sure. Even Monticello doesn’t want to talk about it. In any event, Dillinger went on to amass some $359, 322 in loot taken and that made him the marked man at the top of the list.

Dillinger Death Made Headlines Nationwide

On This Date in 1934, the Bureau got their man when it gunned down Public Enemy Number 1, John Dillinger. Bureau agent Melvin Purvis got a tip from brothel operator Anna Sage who gave information concerning Dillinger’s whereabouts under the threat of deportation to her native Romania on morals charges. Sage is the original woman in red, which has been also called the lady in red. The story is that she attended the Biograph Theatre in Chicago and when she emerged, she was identified from her red dress and thus the man whom she was with was to be considered Dillinger. She came out and the agents promptly shot her date. That was that, the headlines were trumpeted across the nation and the photo above was circulated to prove that Dillinger was indeed dead.

But….a supposed authority on the history of American Crime, Jay Robert Nash, says the FBI got the wrong guy. Nash says the man who was killed outside of the theatre was really a patsy. James Lawrence was considered a low level thug who was used by Sage and a crooked Indiana detective to unwittingly stand in for Dillinger. If you notice, the dead guy looks similar to the Dillinger photo on the left, but to me he looks a bit more like Jackie Gleason than the lean looking photo of the alive version of Public Enemy Number 1. The FBI claimed that Dillinger had plastic surgery and that explains any discrepancies. But the Cook County autopsy report was supposedly lost for 30 years. After it was found, the claim is that the dead guy is not the same height or weight of Dillinger. Dillinger had blue eyes whereas the corpse had brown eyes. The corpse was missing a distinguishing birthmark and had more teeth than the notorious bank-robber. Evidence showed the dead guy had a rheumatic heart. Had Dillinger had such a condition, he would have been prevented from being in the Navy.

FBI stands by their story that this man in the Cook County morgue in 1934 was indeed John Dillinger

The FBI, of course, stands by their story and claims the record, including fingerprints, support the truth that the G-Man got his man!!! I dunno…but I do know that Dillinger was never spotted again. Seems to me that if he were alive, it would be unlikely that he “went straight.” But then again, the guy was dead, they couldn’t interrogate him to determine if he was in fact Dillinger and they certainly couldn’t read him his Miranda rights. Back in those days it was “shoot first and ask questions later”….kinda like that good neighbor in Texas. Anyway, if you see a very old man that looks like the alive version of Dillinger, call the authorities immediately.

Weather Bottom Line:  Today will be more of the same with scattered t’storms though I do not see any major features either in the minds of the computer models nor in the reality of the radar.  Friday and Saturday will be very hot…I saw the weather channel claiming 99 for one of the days but that will be tough with dewpoints in the low 70′s.  But, mid 90′s seems hot enough and with that type of moisture, it will feel even hotter.  Sunday, the ridge should break down to allow for an elevation in rain/t’storm chances perhaps as early as Saturday night and, if not, then certainly Sunday.  The boundary should come through sufficiently to catch a break from the heat on Monday but it may move back as a warm front on Tuesday bringing rain chances and a return to higher temps and humidity.

Too Old To Be Guilty July 10, 2010

If we followed the logic of a 1787 Philadelphia judge, old folks could rule the dinner table and the streets

On This Date In History: In May 1787, an old woman in Philadelphia was grabbed and attacked by a group of people who cut her head in an ancient tradition of bleeding out any spells she may have cast. They thought she was a witch. This year there has been a heat wave in the Eastern United States.  The media tends to latch on to Global Warming  these days but the truth is, it has happened before.  In early July 1787, a big heat wave was going on in the city of Brotherly Love. Dogs and horses died. The fields were dry and tempers grew as hot as the weather. No word on whether anyone blamed Global Warming in 1787.   However,  at the same time, 55 men were gathered in Independence Hall arguing over the forming Constitution. If you look at the painting of the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia to the left, you will note the central figure is General Washington. Just about every painting you see will feature the Father of the Country prominently. That is because he is largely credited with holding the conventioneers together. Not by words but simply by his presence. His silent, strong leadership was what everyone looked toward to get them through the turmoil. Another person in Philadelphia did not have the General to save her.

Philadelphia: City of Brotherly Love

The old woman who was tormented in early May was a German known as Korbmacher. During the heatwave, a little boy died. Some on the streets of Philadelphia chose to blame her and attacked her again On This Date in 1787. The Pennsylvania Evening Herald story read, “We are sorry to hear that the poor woman who suffered so much some time ago, under the imputation of being a witch, has again been attacked by an ignorant and inhuman mob. On Tuesday last she was carried through several of the streets, and was hooted and pelted as she passed along. A gentleman who interfered in her favour was greatly insulted, while those who recited the innumerable instances of her art, were listened to with curiousity and attention.”

Korbmacher Means Basket Maker In German

Eight days later, Korbmacher, which means basket-maker, was dead and the Philadelphia Witch Hunt was over. The newspapers wrote that they hoped justice would be done to those who had perpetrated such a beating on a person, let alone an old woman. Well, a trial did get underway as several people said they would testify against some of the alleged attackers. Three things are interesting about the trial. First was it was held just prior to Halloween also known as All Hallows Eve or Witches Eve. Second, there is no record of the results of the trial. The third, and perhaps most intriguing is the commentary about the innocence of Korbmacher from the bench by the judge:

Judge: Old ladies are innocent

“what! that a poor wretch whose sorrows and infirmities have sunk her eyes into her head, and whose features are streaked with the wrinkles of extreme old age, should therefore become an object of terror, and be endowed with the powers of witchcraft — it is an idle and absurd superstition! If, however, some damsels that I have seen, animated with the bloom of youth, and equipped with all the grace of beauty, if such women were indicted for the offence, the charge might receive some countenance, for they are indeed calculated to charm and bewitch us. But age and infirmity, though they deserve our compassion, have nothing in them that can alarm or fascinate our nature.”

James W von Brunn probably wishes his judge was the the 1787 Philadelphia judge

So according to the judge…Korbmacher was innocent simply because of her age.   If we used this judge’s logic today, then the 88-year-old man who killed a bunch of people at the Holocaust Museum in Washington would be set free because of his age.  Carrying out the judge’s logic in 1787, if  Korbmacher  had been young in the “bloom of youth” well then she may very well be guilty of being a witch because everyone knows that young women have a way of putting men under their spell!!!  How’s that for justice? All of this on the same streets that were at the very time witness to the construction of the very document that governs justice for all for this great nation. This witch tale is not remembered by most but it did make its way into a book that was reviewed by The  Spectator.  The author of the book was surprised to find that there is nothing in the record to show that any of the members of the Constitutional Convention made any notes related to the Philadelphia Witch Incident because it was widely reported at the time.  It’s too bad that General Washington didn’t go for a stroll at the hour of Korbmacher’s demise…his presence alone could have done what the Constitution could not.

Weather Bottom Line:  The biggest benefit of the Friday’s front was the rain.  We needed it as we are behind both in the near term and also for the year.  The second best thing about it was a slight reduction in humidity levels.  Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60′s have brought some relief.  The heat was brought down a bit but we’re still going to be lurking around the 90 degree mark for the weekend.  This front represented a change in the long wave pattern: i.e. the jet stream.  The ridge that had been limiting rain activity will be broken down such that for at least the first half of the week, disturbances will be allowed to move in that will initiate rain and t’storm activity and also afternoon heating will be enough to support afternoon and evening storms.  That is something that we haven’t seen for a  few weeks so the prospects for rain will be enhanced for several days, which is a good thing.

Cats Saved by Illinois Governor April 23, 2010

Stevenson Spared Illinois Scenes Like This

Adlai E. Stevenson

On this date in History:  Adlai Stevenson is well known as a two time presidential candidate nominee who lost on both occasions.  He was also the Ambassador to the United Nations during the Kennedy Administration.  Stevenson rose to prominence as the Governor of Illinois and was known for his wit as well as his legislative initiatives in the Land of Lincoln including improving education.   But, Stevenson’s greatest bit of executive prowess may have come with his opposition to Illinois Senate Bill number 93.

Bill Tips His Hat to Adlai

Officially, Senate Bill No. 93 had the title of  ”An Act to Provide Protection to Insectivorous Birds by Restraining Cats.”  It became known unofficially as “the cat bill.”  Perhaps this is where Berkely Breathed got the inspiration to name one of his characters, “Bill the Cat.”  The bill called for fines on owners who let thier kitties wander free off their property.  It also allowed for anyone to capture or “imprison” any cats at large and one could call the cops to pick up the fugitive feline.  All across the state, anyone could set traps with the purpose of catching wandering kitties.   The bill had been argued in the legislature several times in the post war years but it eventually passed both houses of the Illinois General Assembly and was presented to the Governor.

Illinois Cats Roared with Approval

Well, Stevenson was an adept politician and he knew that cats could not vote.  But, he knew that catowners certainly had the right to vote.  And the birds in question generally were of the free variety, not any owned by voters.  So, Stevenson determined that it would not be prudent public policy to deem a cat crossing a highway or walking across someone’s property line as a public nuisance.  Stevenson seemed to have a good grasp on the behaviour of cats because he noted that it was the nature of cats to roam unescorted.  He did allow for the fact that many cats resided in the residence of some people but he did not think it was appropriate for the occasional feline foray into the great outdoors to prompt “a small game hunt by zealous citizens — with traps or otherwise.”

Cat Shows It's Enthusiasm

Stevenson also took a pragmatic view as he noted that the legislation would no doubt lead to unrest in the form of recrimanation and enmity as well as the unbridled discord that would surely erupt should a citizen turn a neighbor’s pet over to the cops.  He also added:

“If we attempt to resolve [this problem] by legislation, who knows but what we may be called upon to take sides as well in the age-old problems of dog versus cat, bird versus bird, even bird versus worm. In my opinion, the state of Illinois and its local governing bodies already have enough to do without trying to control feline delinquency.”

Rats No Longer Supported Stevenson

Nowwhere did Stevenson speak of the number of cat-loving, cat-owning members of the electorate but I’m sure he was quite aware that a threat to a citizen’s cat could mean a threat to a potential vote in an future election.  So, on this date in 1949, Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson vetoed the bill that was designed to protect birds from cats.  It did not help him at the presidential polls against President Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.  Perhaps his loss was a direct result of his veto of the bill adversely affected a certain population that far outnumbered the number of cats in the state and across the nation.  Rats, mice and other rodents were certainly turned-off by Stevenson’s actions.

SPC Moderate Risk Sat AM to Sun AM W. KY

Weather Bottom Line:  I warned a few days about about the severe potential in our area for this weekend.  The Storms Prediction Center has been expanding its outlook each day for the past 3 days and have now expanded the moderate risk for severe weather to include a good chunk of Western Kentucky.  The idea here is that a number of super cellular storms develop along the Texas-Louisiana border.  These storms then would track northeast with more developing with the heat of the day.    My guess is that the extent of the moderate risk area to the northeast has to do with the increasing dynamics associated with a large scale event and the potential of the super cells be relatively long lived, thus being able to make their way into Western Kentucky.  As for Louisville itself, the sun going down before the storms get here is the reason why the Louisville Metro area is under a slight risk and that area is more expansive east than west. 

SPC 30%-45% risk for Severe Weather Sat AM to Sun AM

Tornadoes would be most likely in the Southwestern part of the state and with the loss of afternoon heating, that threat will diminish as the true dynamics will be situated farther south.  However, what happens when you get a big storm falling apart, they tend to simply collapse and when that happens, there is an enormous, short lived down draft which can cause significant damage.  I would speculate that, while tornadoes are possible in the Louisville Metro Area, the greatest risk will be from strong winds and hail.   This system will lurk and so rain chances will carry into Sunday, though I think the risk for severe weather will have shifted south and east.

Could Donald Trump Lose His Name? March 1, 2010

Trump May Have to Fire His Name!

Surely Dad Won't Have To Kiss Ivanka Goodbye with his Name?

What’s In a Name?  Donald Trump and his casino arm, Trump Entertainment, filed for bankruptcy for a third time in February 2009.  This third bankruptcy filing is not too big of an indictment on Trump given that the economy has hurt the gaming industry nationwide.  Trump tried to flip a deal in which he would buy out the bondholders but those who owned the bonds didn’t go for it but it was announced in November 2009 that Trump and his daughter Ivanka would retain a stake in the company and take it out of bankruptcy in a new deal.  But there was a fly in the ointment.  That fly was none other than Carl Icahn who is a very prominent investor.  Seems Ichan bought a bunch of the bonds and Icahn announced a rival plan to take over the Trump casinos.

Carl Icahn Has A great Name for Investing...but a Casino?

So, now the two titans face off in bankruptcy court and the most interesting charges flying have to do with the “Trump” name.  Icahn want’s to buy the casinos and keep the name without Donald or Ivanka.  Some say that the Trump image has been tarnished by a number of financial battles in which The Apprentice star finds himself.  In fact, Icahn lawyers in court filings said that, “The Trump name may no longer be ‘synonymous with business acumen, high quality and style, a luxury lifestyle and enormous success’ as Mr. Trump asserts.”   Say what you want about Donald’s hair but there is no way that Mr. Trump would allow an attack on the family name to go unanswered.  He implied under crossexamination that Mr. Icahn’s name has been associated with some less-than-successful deals of his own saying,  ”Well, Mr. Icahn has led companies into many, many bankruptcies.”

"Con" Works with Extermination Products

So the fight goes on.  Trump is arguing that Icahn does not have the right to take his name if he takes the casinos.  Icahn says that he does.  But, there’s the kicker and perhaps the ultimate insult.  A Wall Street Journal article says that the main reason Mr. Icahn wants to retain the Trump name is that it would cost $15 to $20 million to change the signs.  He says that, otherwise, the name has nothing to do with the future success of the properties.  Ouch!   In court, Trump says that Icahn should not be able to to take over the casinos at all, painting an unflattering picture of a quick buck artist, perhaps not unlike Gordon Gekko.  Trump doesn’t say that Icahn won’t spend money to rebuild the casinos and the brand name, the New York Post reported that he says Icahn is a “cheapskate” who wouldn’t spend three dollars.  Mr. Trump says, “If Carl spends $3, I’d be shocked.” 

"Con" Worked for a Movie But Not Sure if it Fits Casino

Now, who knows how this whole thing will come out in the wash.  But, the fact that anyone is saying that the only reason he wants to keep the Trump name on the buildings is becuase he doesn’t want to spend the money to change the name is amazing.  It may support Trump’s assertion about Icahn or it may be Mr. Icahn’s way of sticking it to a rival.  Either way, it seems rather odd for someone to be able to lose his name if he loses his business. I suppose it has happened before but still…a Trump named casino without a Trump?  I guess it’s better than an alternative like “Icahn Casino” which is pronounced Eye Con.  Somehow I think that there may be a bit of a difficulty in the marketing department with attracting customers to I Con Casino.  It workd for ConAir which was a ficticious movie starring Nicolas Cage and it works with bug killer..D-Con…but I’m just not certain about a Casino.  Maybe the Trump name is worth more than Icahn is letting on.

By Wed AM, all critical thickness or freezing lines are well south

GFS claims a little moisture in our area with East Coast Storm Early Wed AM

Weather Bottom Line: We did get to 41 but largely, the day was just like Sunday which was still cold and not feeling like much of a warm up.  A system is running along the Gulf Coast and will take a turn across Georgia and then off the North Carolina Coast and up the eastern seaboard.  Look for more snow stories from the Northeast this week but not as dramatic as the last couple of storms.  The bulk of this guy should stay far enough offshore as to not affect more than coastal regions with snow, but it still may be significant in some areas.  As the low passes us to the South, the long wave pattern will again adjust with the base of the trof to our South.  A couple of flurries will be possible Tuesday night or early Wednesday but the moisture will more or less be cut off by the Appalacians so it doesn’t look like a big deal.  I still think that we don’t get out of the 30′s on Tuesday or Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.  We get some sun on Friday and  move to the low 40′s before getting into the average range for Saturday…which is about 51. So don’t break out the tanning butter.  But, if we can’t have snow, I say go to 70.  This Houston-type of winter weather in the 40′s and clouds stinks.  If its gonna be cold, then lets have some exciting snow. If not, then let spring hurry up and get here and let me plant my sunflowers.  A little rain Sunday or Monday won’t be out of the question as the long wave pattern may be breaking after about 2 months of it being stuck.

Robber Gets $1.2 Million from City to Settle Lawsuit. Long Winded Speech Saves President’s Life October 14, 2009

Pat Garrett Shot Billy the Kid in the Back. Should the kid's family have sued Lincoln County?

Is This True?

The city of Oakland, California decided to pay a man $1.2 million to settle a Civil Rights lawsuit against the city.  The man was shot in the back by  an Oakland Police Officer and is now a paraplegic.    The rub with many people is that the victim was in the act of committing a robbery when the officer shot him.  The cop thought the man had a gun and shot him in self defense.  But, the man was unarmed.  This echoes back to a case in Louisville a few years ago.  A young man was conducting a drug transaction with an undercover cop.  When the officer identified himself, the youth ran and reached for what the officer thought was a gun.  The kid was shot three times in the back and died.   While, the case showed that what the officer thought was a gun was in fact not a gun, the investigation revealed that the young man was indeed armed with a gun.  The Louisville Police Officer was charged with murder.  The officer in question was  acquitted of that murder charge but he was later fired by the city for not following procedure.  

These types of cases come up from time to time.  The cop has to make a split second decision.  In these two particular cases, the men were in the act of committing a crime.  In both cases, the cops thought that the suspect was going for a gun.  In both cases, neither was going for a gun, though in the Louisville case, the man was armed.  In both cases, the officer shot the suspect in the back. 

If a man robs a liquor store and, while driving away, accidentally runs over someone,  he would most likely get charged with murder because the incident happened while  they were committing a crime.  How is it that a suspect is held responsible for his actions during the act of committing a crime, yet, is not responsible for putting himself in a position to be shot by police because he’s committing a crime?

Should cops be punished for mistakes made in shootings in which the person shot was in the process of committing a crime?  Should those “victims” be able to collect for damages in those situations…in effect get paid for being injured while committing a crime? 

These are not isolated incidents.  Just recently, a man who was convicted of a violent armed robbery filed a lawsuit seeking monetary damages for injuries he received when trying to flee the scene of the crime.  Are cities like Oakland setting a precedent for such payoffs? 
On This Date in History: Lost to much of the pages of history are attempted assassinations. (Here is a list of failed presidential assassinations) President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 was a former President who was running to get his old job back. He had filled the term of the assassinated President McKinley and finished his own term in 1908. In deference to the precedent set by President Washington, Teddy Roosevelt decided against running in 1908, instead promoting his Vice-President William Howard Taft who won handily. Teddy was not happy with the way in which Taft ran things and decided to challenge him for the Republican nomination for the 1912 election but power interests in the party which had fared better with Taft than Roosevelt, backed Taft and Roosevelt did not get the Republican nomination. So, he formed his own party, the Progressive Party, which came to be known as the “Bull Moose Party” after TR’s tough-guy bull-moose image. Roosevelt ended up getting about 12 million votes to Taft’s 8 million but the pair split the Republican vote which led to the election of Woodrow Wilson as President.

On this date in 1912, Theodore Roosevelt got into a car after dining at a hotel in Milwaukee. He was headed to give a speech. When he turned to wave to the crowd, a shot rang out from the .38 caliber revolver in the hand of John Schrank. Schrank had been pursuing Roosevelt for many days over many miles. He had been reported to be having dreams of William McKinley and also felt that no one should get more than two terms as president. When Roosevelt turned to the crowd from his car, it opened up and opportunity for Schrank to shoot the candidate at close range.

The shot his Roosevelt squarely in the chest. But, in his breast pocket, Teddy had the thick, 50 page, folded up text of his planned 90 minute speech. He also had a metal spectacle case. The bullet was slowed by the eye-glasses case and the thick speech. While the bullet entered his body, it did not penetrate his heart. Initially, Roosevelt did not realize that he had been shot but, after he did, he insisted on giving his speech. He arrived on the podium and proudly showed the crowd the hole in his speech and said that it took more than an assassins bullet to kill a bull moose. While the speech (text of speech) was abbreviated, he still stood before the crowd for quite awhile and rebuffed attempts to get him to conclude the speech so he could go to the hospital for attention. He went to the hospital in Milwaukee and reluctantly allowed for a tetnus injection and then went to a Chicago hospital where he was released on October 23. But, that was just a little more than a week before the election and he was prevented from making important campaign stops, which may have influenced the election and leading to Wilson’s victory.

Here’s the kicker. The bullet was never removed.

Weather Bottom Line:  Still looks like crappy weather through the rest of the week if not into Saturday.  It will be cloudy with off and on rain and showers.  We may not see 50 degrees until Saturday afternoon.

6 Year-Old BringsCub Scout Knife to School, Faces Reform School; Gun Battle Caught on Tape in Toledo October 13, 2009

Crown Fit for School District or Legislature?

When I was a kid…probably 3rd or 4th grade…I thought it was so cool when I got a pocketknife for Christmas.  I dutifully took it to school every day because you never know when you might need a good pocketknife.  I even sharpened it to the point that it would cut paper.  Well, the truth is that there really wasn’t any time that you need a pocketknife at school.  So, it didn’t take long for me to stop taking it with me.  I took it on Boy Scout camping trips after I graduated from Cub Scouts and Webelos but never really had much use for it there either.  And when I did, I didn’t want to use it because I didn’t want to dull the super-sharp blade.  So, basically, it was useless to me.  But it was still cool to have.

The 6 year-old Criminal

That was then and this is now.  A kid in Delaware sounds like he was a lot like me.  He is only six but got a little Cub Scout pocketknife.  His was different than mine because he had eating utensils as part of his.  Like me, he wanted to take it to school but he wanted to use it.  So, he sat at lunch, apparently not bothering anyone, and opened it up to use to eat.  A 6-year-old doesn’t know about zero tolerance policies.  He only knows that his knife with the fork and spoon is cool.  But, Zachary Christie now faces 45 days in a reform school for violating the Christina School District’s zero-tolerance policy of kids bringing knives to school.  It would be on his record forever, I suppose.  Now, the state legislature is jumping into action with representatives introducing a bill that would amend Delaware’s zero tolerance law for school discipline. 

6 Year-Old's Weapon of Choice

From this we are able to ascertain that it wasn’t necessarily the school district that had the rule, but instead it was a mandate from the state.  We heard a lot of people complaining about some of the federal efforts to combat terrorism after 911.  There was a hue and cry over the eavesdropping legislation that allowed investigators to listen to phone transmissions without a warrant.  Computers could pick out code words and then pick out calls to listen in on and do so before the call was completed, after which a smart bad guy might dispose of the cell phone and get another one to prevent future detection.  By the time you got a warrant, the caller was long gone.  But, I never heard of a single American whose rights of privacy was really violated.  Yet, after high profile situations like at Columbine, many states and school districts created rules such as this and there have been numerous cases like this in which a pretty benign situation became elevated to an equal  status as a kid who brought a weapon to school with malevolent intentions. The school board of this Houston Area School District approved of a girl’s suspension for having Advil in her backpack.   Yet, there has been no hue and cry.  Are laws like this on th books so that officials don’t have to make a decision?  Do we want blanket rules without giving adminsitrators the flexibility to actually make decisions?  Even if the amendment proposes passes, I’m not so sure that it would affect the kid retroactively unless the legislation specifically addresses Zachary’s particular sitution.  Why are we more sensative to issues related to national security that may create a situation civil rights situation but allow blind policies that do often affect kids adversely?

The Bar Could Have Used Festus Hagen

Meanwhile, there are those who want to ban handguns. As it stands, it’s already illegal for criminals to have a gun, yet the still do.  Criminals by definition do not obey the law.  So, it will be interesting to see if the men who decided to have a shootout at a Toledo, OH bar face charges that fit the crime or if they will get something less than the 45 day sentence imposed on young Zachary.  This video shows the suspects coming into the Route 66 Bar, starting a fight and then having a good old fashioned gun-battle.  These guys should be charged with something, if for no other reason that with so many shots fired in such close proximity…the shooters didn’t hit anthing that they were aiming at, namely anyone else.

Judge Gives Spankings and Man Walks Around the World. Farther Than Forrest Gump? October 5, 2009

Not in School...Just in the Judges Chambers

Thomas dressed well for his photo.

So….there’s this judge in Alabama….sounds like the beginning of a joke.  But, it’s not and it may be a true story, depending on what a jury says.  Judge Herman Thomas was a district judge in Mobile.  He moved up to be a circuit judge but his career was short-circuited when inmates began to accuse him of paddling!  The former judge now faces more than 100 charges in a trial that begins with jury selection today.  Prosecutors say that the judge conducted spanking and paddling sessions against defendants as a way to acheive sexual gratification.  The prosecution says it has 15 accusers lined up to testify but Thomas’ lawyer expects at least some of the accusers will recant their testimony because the 15 men “are not trustworthy and are not believable” adding that, “We’re talking about murderers, burglars, drug dealers.”  Thomas is also charged with a number of counts of kidnapping, sodomy, assault, extortion and ethics violations.  Wonder if after  his trial is over Thomas will run for Congress?

 

That's some map

On This Date in History:

  Previously on these here pages I’ve pondered whether a man walking around the perimeter of the United States with a wheelbarrow was the inspiration for Forrest Gump.  Well, now I’ve got another one that may be more plausible.  If you recall, Gump just started running out of frustration with how events of his life were conspiring against him.  Well, in 1970 David Kunst of Waseca, MN said that he  “was tired of Waseca, tired of my job, tired of a lot of little people who don’t want to think, and tired of my wife.” So, on June 20 of that year, David Kunst left Waseca on a trip around the world…on foot.  He managed to get some sponsors and helped raise money for UNICEF.   He took along his brother John but John didn’t make it back home standing up.  Sadly, John was shot and killed by bandits in Afghanistan in 1972.  David was wounded.

Kunst Made It in Guiness

David returned to Waseca to heal his wounds but went back to Afghanistan to pick up his journey where he left off.  This time, he took his brother Peter, but Peter didn’t make it either.  He did not suffer John’s fate but did have to return home due to health complications.  David Kunst soldiered on and on this date in 1974, returned to Waseca, Minnesota.  He had walked 14,500 miles across the land of 4 continents and went through 21 pairs of shoes.  Another American claimed to have done the same thing about a century prior to Kunst, but the tales of George Shilling were never verified.  Not sure why Shilling thought it was a good idea to literally become a globe trotter.  Whether or not Shilling or Gump or Kunst had rational reasons for their efforts at least one man who has worn through a lot of shoe leather does have what he would call a good reason. 

Art Still Walking After 40 Years

Arthur Blessitt holds the world record for walking over 34,500 miles in his effort to spread the Gospel.  Blessitt has been walking since 1969, carrying a collapsable 12-foot cross while he hits the dusty trails and preaches to whomever will listen.  He has walked through over 290 countries on six continents.  Blessitt’s website now says he’s over 38,000 miles and 315 countries.   Seems like to me there’s an endorsement deal just waiting to happen.  But, if not, there’s always all of the Blessitt You-Tube postings.

Tuesday 8 PM EDT

Weather Bottom Line: We had a beautiful Monday after heavy morning fog when the sun came out with abundance and our temperatures moved to near 70.  Now, we have a warm front/cold front system coming through with the warm front lifting through Tuesday morning and the cold front following suit on Tuesday night.  Showers in the first part of the day would be possible with the warm front and then rain and t’storms in the afternoon and evening with the cold front.  Our temperatures don’t back off too much with the front as we get back to the 60′s on Wednesday and Thursday there’s a bit of return flow ahead of the next system so low 70′s may show up in much of the area then.  On Friday, a stronger cold front comes in bringing another chance for rain or t’storms but behind that…we will struggle to the low 60′s on Saturday and won’t get out of the 50′s on Sunday and Monday….look for frost on the pumpkin in outlying areas on Sunday and Monday morning.  I bet we have a great fall color season with the wet summer we had and now the early cool temperatures.

Women Can Vote Thank to One Man’s Mom; No Beer Summits Lemonade Lucy’s White House August 19, 2009

How Could Anyone Oppose These Babes?

These Guys Opposed the Chick Vote, But Wouldn't Show their Faces.

On This Date in History: 

We’ve got the health care debate going on and people are complaining that one side or the other may have an organized or orchestrated effort.  The proper response may be , “so what?”  The Sons of Liberty was an orchestrated movement against the crown.  The Civil Rights movement was organized.  The women’s suffrage movement was organized, but so were opposition groups.  It has happened throughout history.  Organization is what gets things done…that’s why there are political parties.

In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose. On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to be a good boy and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote, he changed his vote, the amendment passed on this date in 1920, when the sun rose, the suffrage movement finally succeeded and women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb.

If you were in the White House of Lucy Hayes, the glass you lifted would have been the unleaded version and you certainly couldn’t be part of a “beer summit.”  President Rutherford B. Hayes was no teetotaler but his administration followed that of President Grant whose White House had been assumed to be flowing with Whiskey. Hayes wanted to distance himself from the reputed Whiskey-soaked, scandal-ridden Grant and he had a wife, Lucy, who was big into the temperance movement. So, On This date in 1877, booze was banned at the White House and Lucy became known as “Lemonade Lucy.” The hired help though thought that they had put one over on the President and his wife.

See the chef made a “Roman Punch” part of the daily meal with a hollowed out orange filled with some sherbet-like concoction. Many a Senator was quite relieved when the tasted the brew because they were convinced it was filled with as much rum it could possibly hold. But, the president had the last laugh. Hayes wrote in his diary that he had ordered that the staff fill the punch “strongly with the same flavor that is found in Jamaica rum…There was not a drop of spirits in them!” Yes, indeed….quite the clever man that Rutherford B. Hayes. Too bad he wasn’t as clever in doing his job. After one term, the sitting president was unable to secure the nomination from his own party, losing out to eventual Republican President James Garfield. But, it’s a lesson to the kids…don’t ever think you can pull one over on the old man!

SPC Severe Threat Thu 8am to Fri 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  As I’ve been touting all week, Thursday looks to be the best chance for rain.  My sunflowers need it but I”m a bit concerned because they are nearly 10 feet tall with big old flowers on top. I’m afraid of strong winds that may cause problems.  We have lots of moisture.  This afternoon, there will be scattered storms mainly popping up and roaming up from the southwest.  Now, on Thursday, we have a front coming down.   The boys at the HPC have the front depicted as on our doorstep by 8pm on Thursday.  However, by 8am the next day, its only approaching Lexington.  Hmm..Well, the front seems to get hung up with  a vort lobe swinging around.  It’s the timing of that lobe that is the bugaboo.  See, the 12Z GFS just has all of the severe parameters go off the chart at 1am on Friday.  It also puts out 2.7″ of rain from 7am Thu to 7am Fri.  As is typically the case, the NAM is less bullish, with only about a quarter inch of rain for the same time frame.  It has pretty high Bulk Richardson numbers and CINS but the SWEAT is rather pedestrian somewhere in the 250 range and the other parameters also are limited somewhat…but it too advertises the 1am Friday time frame for the biggest severe threat.  All models dig the trof way into the Dixie States.  So, it’s a strong front and the general idea of these models is that Hurricane Bill ends up just east of Maine with probably high seas for New England as the strong trof shoots Bill to the north very rapidly.  For us, my guess is that we get more rain than advertised from the NAM and it may be heavy at times. I mean, come on…you can feel the moisture out there.  The air will be therefore pretty unstable so I would think that Thursday night we can expect some watch boxes and strong storms.  But, if they aren’t in the area in the evening or shortly after sundown, then they would tend to not be a general ferocity but instead a few scattered strong storms overnight.   The timing will be key.  There’s just so much potential energy, I just can’t believe that it will be as quiet as the NAM thinks.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
  
   VALID 201200Z – 211200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MI AND OH SWWD
   TO RED RIVER REGION OF SRN PLAINS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS UPPER
   MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS…WITH SLOW EWD SHIFT ACROSS MID-UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS.  NEARLY PHASED BLEND OF
   AMBIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSORTED MVC’S — NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER LOWER MO VALLEY
   REGION — IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD REMAINDER DAY-1 AND BECOME ABSORBED
   INTO DEVELOPING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER MN.  AS THIS
   OCCURS…ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH — NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY INVOF ERN MT BORDER — IS FCST TO DIG SEWD…REACHING BASE
   OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER SRN IA/NRN MO BY 20/12Z.  THIS PERTURBATION
   SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS LM AND LOWER MI DURING ENSUING 12 HOURS AS
   ANOTHER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO
   VALLEY REGION.  AFTER ABOUT 21/00Z…PROGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
   CONSIDERABLY REGARDING CURVED PATH OF PRIMARY MID-UPPER VORTEX
   CENTER OVER MN…WITH PREFERRED SREF CONSENSUS BEING CLOSE TO
   OPERATIONAL WRF POSITION OVER LS BY 21/12Z.
  
   AT SFC…CYCLONE NOW OVER CENTRAL MB IS FCST TO OCCLUDE DAY-1 WITH
   FRONTAL TRIPLE-POINT LOW FORMING INVOF WRN LS BY START OF PERIOD.
   LOW THEN SHOULD PIVOT EWD ACROSS LS THEN NEWD OVER NRN ONT THROUGH
   21/12Z.  ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AT 20/12Z — LIKELY MODULATED ON
   MESOSCALE BY BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION — SHOULD EXTEND
   ACROSS SRN WI…WRN/CENTRAL IL AND S-CENTRAL MO…SWWD ACROSS SWRN
   OK TO E-CENTRAL NM.  AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BECOMES STACKED OVER NRN
   ONT/ERN LS REGION…COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
   MI…INDIANA AND MO BY 21/00Z…SWWD OVER N-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SERN
   NM.  BY END OF PERIOD…WRN SEGMENT OF FRONT MAY DECELERATE OVER W
   AND CENTRAL TX…WHILE STILL MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
   CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIAN REGION.  SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS LOWER MI…LE…AND INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS BY
   EARLY IN PERIOD…REACHING ERN ONT AND SRN QUE BY 21/00Z.
  
   …OH AND LOWER MI TO SRN PLAINS…
   A FEW BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD
   ALONG…OR MORE PROBABLY JUST AHEAD OF…THAT SEGMENT OF SFC COLD
   FRONT FROM OK TO OZARKS TO WI.  MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR MRGL
   DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL.  FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FCST TO
   DESTABILIZE DIURNALLY — FROM MID-DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON –
   WEAKENING MLCINH IN SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  PREFRONTAL
   SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO 70S F SHOULD BE COMMON FROM LOWER MI TO
   RED RIVER VALLEY…WITH STG DIABATIC HEATING OUTSIDE ANY SWATHS OF
   THICK CLOUD COVER PRODUCED BY EARLIER/ONGOING ACTIVITY.  LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER FRONTAL ZONE…LARGELY
   ACCOUNTING FOR SIMILAR TRENDS IN BUOYANCY.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   PRE-STORM MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS LOWER
   MI…WITH 3500-4000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS SERN OK…N-CENTRAL/NE TX
   AND AR.  FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EVIDENT
   ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE NEARLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER GREAT LAKES STATES…BUT WITH FAVORABLE SPEED
   SHEAR…WHEREAS LARGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BENEATH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL PREVAIL SWWD TO RED RIVER REGION.  DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD
   BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA…WITH RELATIVE
   CONCENTRATION OF HAIL POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM ARKLATEX TO RED RIVER
   WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST WITH POSSIBILITY OF
   LONGER-LASTING DISCRETE MODE.
  
   MORE SPECIFIC/LARGER CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR PROBABILITIES…IF
   ANY…WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON MESOSCALE AND SMALLER PROCESSES –
   I.E. PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES…AND PACE OF EVOLUTION TO
   CLUSTERED AND LINEAR STORM MODES.
  
   …LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC…
   MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STG SFC HEATING…ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM
   FRONT…WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS
   FROM MID-DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER
   60S F WILL HELP TO OFFSET MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES — E.G. 6-6.5
   DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB — TO PRODUCE MLCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE WITH NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING.  LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS AND BULK
   SHEAR EACH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EWD FROM CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK
   AREA…HOWEVER VENTILATING ANVIL-LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
   STG.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH MAIN CONCERN
   BEING STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS…AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2009