Rain to Continue For Much of Kentucky Oaks May 2, 2008

The rain will persist until about 3pm or perhaps some lingering showers a bit longer than that at Churchill Downs.  As mentioned previously, we have a much more stable atmosphere than the area of the genesis of the storms so as they moved in, the lightning has decreased.  But, it’s still raining and there is a secondary line that will be pushing through Churchill around 2:45 and that could have some gusty winds.

Beyond this, the evening will improve.  Early tomorrow morning we still have a shot at more rain and t’showers as there is a boundary well to the west.  Nothing has formed on it as of 2:20 pm but this evening it is probable that something will get going, though nothing overly exciting. Infield for Derby Day will be wet.  A small line of scattered showers or t’showers is still possible for the afternoon on Derby Day.

Here’s the link again to our live radar.

WLKY LIVE SUPER DOPPLER RADAR

Tornado Watch Southwest of Viewing Area Until 4 PM EDT May 2, 2008

Tornado Watch 250 has been issued from about Evansville to bootheel of Missouri.  Don’t panic or think this necessarily means that we will get something. Nevertheless, it’s worth watching what those storms will do as the day progresses.   We will monitor it.

Here’s the link for the specifics about the watch.

Tornado Watch 250 details

Update on SPC Forecast For Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby May 2, 2008

You can see the revision in the SPC outlook has a much smaller moderate risk and is shifted to the southwest from say Paducah to Shreveport.  The largest risk in our area is mainly wind and hail.  Otherwise, the general forecast remains as previously posted.

Here is the link to the SPC with their detailed discussion:

Latest SPC Forecast Link

 

 

 

Severe Outlook For Oaks Day Through Derby Morning May 1, 2008

The threat for severe weather is pretty much what I told you in the previous two posts which is that timing issues bring limitations, hence, the greatest threat is west. But, feel free to scroll back and you can look at what I had to say OR…

Here is the link to the SPC to get their detailed stuff. 

Severe Prediction Center Link

Derby Forecast May Not Be A Winner-Ellen, Chandra, Casey and George April 30, 2008

 

What I’ve been suggesting for the weather to wind up the Derby Festival activities is pretty much still supportable. We still warm up today to the upper 60′s to low 70′s for the Parade. We still move to around 80 or so for the Parade Thursday and the front still approaches for Friday. Most of Oaks Day should be warm, humid and breezy but pop up showers or even t’showers may be on the prowl ahead of the front on Friday afternoon. Then the main event shows up for Friday night. The severe prospects will probably be limited due to the timing of the front and be mainly west but the SPC has us in the eastern flank of the severe risk for Friday into Saturday morning.  There will be pretty good available energy and decent dynamics and that is why they have us in the risk but its also on the edge because of the timing.

 Rain will be possible for Saturday morning. Now, there also continues to be a suggestion, perhaps even more suggestive than yesterday, that we have a situation on Saturday similar to what we had on Monday. That is that a low pivots around the main low and swings through on Saturday afternoon. It’s a pool of cold air aloft and that would possibly trigger afternoon showers and t’showers. This may actually be a better chance than on Monday because our surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 70′s and not 60. That will increase the likelihood of increased lapse rates which would enhance rain/t’storm chances. This guy will act as a cold front and bring in cooler air for Sunday, though probably not as chilly as we had for Tuesday. So, the forecast is still not in the winner’s circle…maybe place but most would probably consider it call it to show.

On This Date In History: I found a source that claims that Jesus of Nazareth died on this date around 30 AD, but I haven’t been able to get corroborating evidence so take that for what its worth.

George Washington took office for the first time in 1789. I’m a bit shady on why it was April 30 and not March 4 as the Constitution outlined but my shady memory makes me want to say it was due to transportation issues. It was a long and slow journey from Mt. Vernon to New York, the provisional Capitol. In fact, if I recall correctly, John Adams was sworn in as Vice President before President Washington took his oath. Some sources claim that means that Adams was really the first president since he would assume presidential duties in the absence of a president. 100 years later, George was honored with the nations first national holiday on this date in 1889. Then, perhaps not coincidentally, on this date in 1931, the George Washington Bridge between New York and New Jersey was opened.

Casey Jones died on this date in 1900. His real name was John Luther Jones but when he took the job as a flagman for the Mobile and Ohio Railroad and someone asked him where he was from and he said Cayce, Kentucky. The men started calling him Cayce and that turned into “Casey.” He became an engineer for the Illinois Central Railroad and was driving the Cannonball Run, which was a generic term for fast trains, from Chicago to New Orleans. He was behind schedule so he had his fireman, Sim Webb to open it up. Casey had a reputation for going too fast and also for the way he handled his train whistle. People would hear the way he manipulated the tootling and say “there goes Casey Jones.” So, he’s flying along at between 75 and 100 mph in driving his passenger train when he comes around a curve and sees a freight train stopped ahead of him. He tells Webb to jump as he applies the brakes and toots the whistle. Webb jumps and Jones plows into the caboose of the freight train. They say that he had managed to slow his train down to 35 mph, thus saving all of the passengers but he was killed. The myth is that he was found with one hand clutching the whistle and the other the brake. His watch stopped at 3:52 AM and his action is credited with saving the lives of all of the passengers. The reason he was behind schedule is that he had already driven a northbound train to Memphis and decided to make another run southbound because the engineer scheduled called in sick. In spite of the heroic lore that has followed his name, an investigation concluded that he was largely to blame for driving too fast.

Remember Chandra Levy? This was the last day she was seen alive in 2001. There was a big investigation into her murder with suspicion being focused on Congressman Gary Condit. Remember it was all over the news, day and night all summer. That is until Sept. 11, 2001 and suddenly the media dropped it has fast as they picked it up. That was also the summer of “shark attacks” that suddenly wasn’t so important by mid September.

And on this date in 1997, Ellen DeGeneres “came out” on her TV show. It was all the controversy. There was on station in Alabama that refused to run the episode on TV.

Oh…one other thing. Thomas Jefferson violated the Constitution on this date in 1803 when the US government paid $15 million to France for Louisiana on this date in 1803. It was a good deal but the Constitution doesn’t give the Executive the power to do such a thing without Congressional approval. But expediency trumped the rule of law and no one said a thing.

Oaks/Derby Daily Double? Real-Life Tony Soprano Helps G-Men April 29, 2008

More bark than bite to Monday afternoon’s stuff. Figured it was a bit of a stretch to get severe stuff but we did have some gusty winds for a time.  Derby Week Forecast still looks on track…sorta.  Tuesday, the sun returns and we will be cool.  Wednesday a chilly start gives way to upper 60′s and lower 70′s.  Can we say Steamboat Race?  How about a parade on Thursday? Why not. Partly cloudy and upper 70′s and low 80′s.  Now, we still have the aforementioned threat of afternoon showers and t’storms on Friday during Oaks Day.  We still have a front overnight.  Now, Sunday night we had a front followed by a break mid/late morning Monday and then another guy swung around Monday afternoon bringing rain followed by chillier air.  There is some evidence that we will have a similar deal this weekend.  Front comes through with mild air and then an upper low pivots around from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley which may trigger some rain/t’storms Saturday afternoon.  Its a cold pool aloft like Monday but the difference would be we would be near 70 at the surface and not 60 like Monday. Hence, lapse rates increased and rain chances enhanced.  It’s still 4 days away but certainly will be something to consider.  Just like everything in life…timing will be the key.

On This Date In History:  Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists?  Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time.  In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies.  Though the veracity of the claim is unclear,  US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. ”

What seems to contradict the idea that the mobsters helped out Uncle Sam is what bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled:

“Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents… ”    

It is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government.  Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition.   In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence.  The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel.  Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s.  So, on April 29, 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help and he eventually agreed with spectacular results.  With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help, United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents.  It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but  they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting.  Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence.  Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.