May 1 Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast; Pay No Attention to What They Say May 1, 2009

"Joe, Do Us Both a Favor and Keep Quiet"

Oaks Day Severe Weather Outlook

Don’t Listen To What I Say:  On Wednesday night, in a news conference, President Obama said that the Swine Flu situation was “a cause for deep concern, but not panic.”  Less than 12 hours later, Vice-President Joe Biden said on NBC’s Today Show that he would tell his family not to fly on airplanes or ride subways or any similar confined places.  Sounds like panic to me?  On April 25, President Obama asked federal employees to submit ideas to help him find ways to tighten the federal budget belt.  Just two days later, the White House dispatched Air Force One along with two F-16′s on a low level flight over New York City for a photo op.  The price tag to taxpayers was nearly $329,000.  I guess no one submitted the idea of not using Air Force One unnecessarily in an effort to tighten the old belt.  That’s because two days after the New York buzzing and terrorizing people in New York City who feared the low flying jumbo jet was another terrorist attack, the president took Air Force One to Arnold, Missouri to talk at a high school about his first 100 days. He then immediately flew back to Washington where he prepared for his evening press conference concerning his first 100 days.  No word on how much it cost for the round trip from DC to Arnold, but I’m sure they did it on the cheap to demonstrate how the White House is tightening its belt.

Manboobs?

Meanwhile, perhaps Alex Rodriguez should get into politics.  He told Katie Couric that he never used steroids.  Then, a few months later he confessed to juicing up when he was with the Texas Rangers.  Now, the same reporter who smoked out A-Rod and forced him to fess up, has a new book coming out that claims the sources say A-Rod was using steroids all the way back in high school and in fact did use them with the Yankees.  Unless the book has some proof other than lots of sources, then A-Rod should go with the Flinstones Vitamins Story of Sammy Sosa.  Then again, it didn’t work for Sam so maybe it wouldn’t work for Alex either.

Derby Day Severe Weather Outlook

Friday 8 PM

Kentucky Derby Forecast: (Click here for the most recent forecast) Here’s the bottom line.  We have a cold front that will move through late on Friday,  which is Oaks Day.  There was rain early Friday morning as a wave of energy rode along the frontal boundary.  I would think,along with clouds, will serve to help keep the atmosphere from getting too unstable.  But, there remains ample moisture and as the front moves through, rain will be prevalent again.  It is not out of the question to have some t’storms with the front and, if so, a few of the storms may be strong.  However, the fact that parameters will be dampened, it will mainly be a rain event.  Rain is indeed possible for the Oaks Race itself but we may get lucky and have it hold off until Friday night.  The track is wet.

 

Derby Day 8PM

On Derby Day, the front slips to the south which will put us in cooler air.  The threat for severe weather should remain to the south provided the front stays south.  The data suggests that enough high pressure will build in behind the boundary to keep it south in spite of small waves of energy running along the front providing for some overrunning rain in the area.  The timing of the wave is quite difficult if not impossible.  Its not like we have a big major feature.  These little guys are very difficult to really pinpoint but, all of the model data suggests off and on rain showers  on Saturday.  For handicappers…again…it comes down to how the track has drained regarding track conditions.  My guess is that it will be wet and somewhat muddy.  The folks at Churchill do a good job and the facilities I believe drains pretty efficiently.  Nevertheless, check the track conditions before placing your bets.  The model data only throws out about 3/4″ of rain for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.  But, I’m not so sure that the models are not under doing it on Friday as the front will have abundant moisture to work with when it comes through and picks up that stuff.  But, as long as the front gets far enough south on Saturday as progged, then the rain on Saturday should be relatively light to moderate at best.  Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50′s to low 60′s.  Below is the Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook for Derby Day.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO TN
VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…
A DEEP VORTEX ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH FAR
NRN QUEBEC TO JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY…WHILE THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ATTENDANT BROAD LONGWAVE EXTENDS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /90-100 KT/
WILL EXTEND FROM NRN IL TO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. MEANWHILE…MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND REACHING THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2…PRECEDING THE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE…A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA WSWWD THROUGH
KY TO ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO ERN/SRN OK…AND THEN EXTEND MORE
SWWD THROUGH NRN TO WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY SWD ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL VA WSWWD
THROUGH TN TO CENTRAL AR AND SERN OK. MODELS SUGGEST THE WRN EXTENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND SWD BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE NE-SW THROUGH CENTRAL TX AND THEN WWD FROM ABOUT 25 N JCT TO SW
TX.

…PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK…
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TX TO JUST S OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. 50+ KT SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS OK/N TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING /35-50 KT/ THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SW/
CENTRAL TX INTO NRN TX SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM SRN OK TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY TOWARD 00Z AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING SWRN STATES
TROUGH. THE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX INTO SERN OK/NERN TX AS A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ
EXTENDS INTO NRN/NERN TX.

…SERN OK/AR TO TN VALLEY…
SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM
SERN OK/AR TO THE TN VALLEY WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ IS
EXPECTED FROM SERN OK INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEPER THAN FARTHER E INTO THE TN VALLEY. 35-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO THE TN VALLEY/KY ON SATURDAY
BENEATH SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IN OH VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/ATTENDANT WIND THREAT GIVEN NEARLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW.

…VA/NC…
A MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF VA/NC ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VA… WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE…GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE
HEATING TAKES PLACE. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN LATER
MODELS…THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2009

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Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast From 4.30.09; Dodge Boys Wives Sell Company Just in Time April 30, 2009

 

SPC Outlook Fri AM to Sat AM (Derby Day)

 

SPC Severe Outlook Sat AM to Sun AM

Kentucky Derby Weather: (For the most recent update click here) On the one hand, my previous assessment that Wednesday would be generally dry for most people was pretty much on the mark.  The front sagged to the South.  There was rain to the South and scattered heavy downpours to the north but Louisville was in decent shape and Snow White and I had a good time watching the Great Steamboat Race.  There is an important change in the data though for Derby Day and handicappers need to keep an eye on this before wagering.  In fact, I would suggesting holding your bets until Saturday.   This forecast was put together based on data available late Wednesday night.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu Midday To Fri AM

Now, we still have a pretty healthy chance for rain on Thursday.  The front lifts back north as a warm front.   The temperatures aloft will again be relatively warm so lapse rates will be weak.  The jet streak across the area should also move out.  But, lower level winds may increase creating a forcing situation in which air is forced upward.  For that reason, the Storm Predicton Center has put us on the edge of the slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.   If we get storms, they would probably be independent guys and bring the potential for gusty winds.  The moisture in the atmosphere is through the roof so there would be the potential for heavy downpours.  Should one or two of these guys go supercellular, then there could be a risk for an isolated tornado.

Friday 8am

Friday, we have similar surrounding circumstances but this time we have a cold front approaching.  That guy should create enough lift to create line segments of thunderstorms, some of which could be rather strong.  For the Kentucky Oaks, it is entirely possible that there will be rain from time to time during the races with rain chances and the threat for strong storms near the end of the day.  If race goers are lucky, the front will be pokey enough that the storms would hold off until  after the Oaks race itself.

Sat 8AM (Derby Day)

Saturday is the biggest change.  It had been advertised as being dry on Saturday, squeezing a good day in between unsettled ones as the front slides south.  Well, the front still slides south but there a rather deep low up around the Great Lakes that will be wandering by and from that a trof may extend through the Ohio Valley.  That weakness in the atmosphere as it rolls through may create some shower activity.  Handicappers need to check the drying potential of the track.  I think they’ve done a pretty good job with drainage over the years.  Now, the weakness coming through does show up as rain showers off and on both the 18Z Wed GFS and NAM vertical profile based indecies.  But, since it’s post frontal, the deep and abundant moisture should be south and so I would not expect there to be heavy rain, just passing showers.  Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 60′s but I think that the biggest issue would be that, if the track is not dry from the Friday rain, then the passing showers would only aggravate the situtation.  If it does dry out, then I would think the conditions would be livable, unless your horse doesn’t like to run in the rain.  Guess here is that the track is taken care of such that it won’t be that wet regardless of the Thursday and Friday rain amounts and that the passing showers or light rain on Saturday will not aggravate the conditions much.  However, keep in mind…I don’t know much about horse racing.  Hold your bets to make sure that the front does indeed move through on Friday night.  I have not seen any data that would suggest otherwise.  Sunday rain chances increase again.

See the severe weather discussion below for Friday 8 am to Saturday 8 am from midday Thursday 4.30.09.

On This Date In History Lots of things happened on this date: Washington’s first inaugural address in 1789, Louisiana Purchase in 1803. Michael Jackson’s “Beat It” debuted in 1983 and then in 1997, Ellen “came out.” The last two go in the “who cares?” category as far as I’m concerned. I like this one in 1925.

John and Horace Dodge

Dodge Brothers, Inc. was sold on this date in 1925 to an investment group (Dillon, Reed and Co,) for $146 million and then they tossed in another $50 million for charitable purposes.  $196 million in 1925 would be nearly $2.4 billion in 2008! A! I like this one because it first shows us the derivation of the Dodge Boys. The commercials for Dodge used to say “come and see your local Dodge Boys.” I thought

Walter Built a Cool Building But Timing on Buying Dodge Not So Cool

that modern PC sensativities snuffed that and I always figured that the saying was just from some sexist ad man in the ’50′s. Now I think differently as I suspect the term came from the fact that there were two brothers…the Dodge boys. The Dodge boys died in 1920.  Horace Dodge passed away in January 1920 and John Dodge followed suit in December 1920.  They had never let any of their family members in on the business. In 1921 there had been a slight recession in the stock market. So, the widows of the Dodge Boys were defacto in charge of the company but really had no clue what they were doing and a few years later the 20′s were roaring again. Afraid of another market dip, the ladies decided to sell in the biggest corporarte sale to that time. I suspect that if you take inflation into account, it would still list as one of the biggest. It was a good move for Dodge Ladies too because just 4 years later, the stock market tanked and there is little doubt it took decades for the stock price to recover.  Walter Chrysler’s timing wasn’t so good.  A year before the bottom fell out of the market, he bought Dodge Brothers for $170 million.

I won’t talk too much about this date in 1945 when Hitler committed suicide except to point out some things that may have been missing in your history class. Just before he pulled the trigger, Hitler expelled Hermann Goering and Heinrich Himmler from the Nazi party for not carrying out some of his last, insane commands. That is why he named Admiral Karl Doenitz to take his place and it was Doenitz who ultimately surrendered for Germany. A book by a man named C.L. Sulzberger that I would describe as something for

Goebbels Family Before Dad had Them All Killed

public consumption and not necessarily an academic work nonetheless has an interesting observation. He described Eva Braun as “plump.” Never heard of that before. At 3:15 Eva took poison. At 3:30 Hitler shot himself.  Joseph Goebbels had an SS guy shoot he and his wife…not sure if the wife agreed with that…but, I bet shooting old Joe was an easy order to follow. Here’s what I don’t get…they got shot after they poisoned their six kids! What did they do except get born to a moronic man? And then Hitler made sure his favorite dog was poisoned before he killed himself. I guess he thought the dog might talk. This stuff is important only in that people need to know that there was nothing redeeming about these people or their ideas and they were totally warped in every sense. Kids need to know the totality of their insanity before anyone can come and convince them that there is anything admirable or enviable to emulate.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU….

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY…NEAR THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH…TO THE EAST OF A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY.  HOWEVER…A STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
WEAKENING…SPLITTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THIS STREAM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.  AT LEAST WEAK DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…THOUGH THIS MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOMEWHAT…ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…BY
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.  A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST…BEFORE SLOWING OR
STALLING NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE OHIO RIVER
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

…UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST…
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN IMPULSE…AND A REMNANT
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE…APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS…COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBLE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING
EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…SUGGESTS THAT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION WILL BE LOW…DESPITE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING.  FRONTAL FORCING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY…PARTICULARLY WHERE BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO THE LEE
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER…GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT…STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AT BEST.

…SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…
AS A GULF RETURN FLOW CONTINUES…DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TOWARD 70F…TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY MOVING OR STALLING SURFACE
FRONT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…BUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING.  LIFT NEAR THE DRY LINE/ FRONT
INTERSECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SEEMS TO
OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIATION OF LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS…CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR…GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE…STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG/ NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT…ON THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET…BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW…PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE
HAIL…PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS…MAY ACCOMPANY EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO  THE OZARKS.

..KERR.. 04/30/2009

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