Rain to Continue For Much of Kentucky Oaks May 2, 2008

The rain will persist until about 3pm or perhaps some lingering showers a bit longer than that at Churchill Downs.  As mentioned previously, we have a much more stable atmosphere than the area of the genesis of the storms so as they moved in, the lightning has decreased.  But, it’s still raining and there is a secondary line that will be pushing through Churchill around 2:45 and that could have some gusty winds.

Beyond this, the evening will improve.  Early tomorrow morning we still have a shot at more rain and t’showers as there is a boundary well to the west.  Nothing has formed on it as of 2:20 pm but this evening it is probable that something will get going, though nothing overly exciting. Infield for Derby Day will be wet.  A small line of scattered showers or t’showers is still possible for the afternoon on Derby Day.

Here’s the link again to our live radar.

WLKY LIVE SUPER DOPPLER RADAR

Tornado Watch Southwest of Viewing Area Until 4 PM EDT May 2, 2008

Tornado Watch 250 has been issued from about Evansville to bootheel of Missouri.  Don’t panic or think this necessarily means that we will get something. Nevertheless, it’s worth watching what those storms will do as the day progresses.   We will monitor it.

Here’s the link for the specifics about the watch.

Tornado Watch 250 details

Update on SPC Forecast For Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby May 2, 2008

You can see the revision in the SPC outlook has a much smaller moderate risk and is shifted to the southwest from say Paducah to Shreveport.  The largest risk in our area is mainly wind and hail.  Otherwise, the general forecast remains as previously posted.

Here is the link to the SPC with their detailed discussion:

Latest SPC Forecast Link

 

 

 

Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Forecast On Track May 2, 2008

This is the late day Thursday SPC update on the severe threat. I’ll update this when a new one comes out. Here’s the link for the details.

Storm Prediction Center Link

 

The general forecast as presented all week is holding.  Friday, we have a boundary approaching.  As we warm to the upper 70′s to low 80′s, there may be some scattered showers or t’storms wandering through in the afternoon ahead of the main action.  So, there will be a chance for something to pass over Churchill Downs from time to time in the afternoon.  Then again, if something pops up, it may not affect the downs at all.  The main line will be to our west during the afternoon heating and so that is where the best chance for severe weather will be…let’s say St. Louis to Evansville to Little Rock to Memphis.  The line  would move through here overnight on Friday into early Saturday.  There will be some dynamic wind energy to support the storms but not nearly as impressive as the presentation of earlier indices. 

The SPC has the slight risk for the western half of the viewing area I suspect largely in case some of the storms hold together but as they progress east they should diminish in punch.  Mostly likely we will have some thunder and lightning and some gusty winds but nothing overly disconcerting.  I would probably be more concerned with one or two of the isolated guys in the afternoon getting a bit out of hand than the line overnight.  It’s not out of the question for one or two afternoon guys may be up to no good if we can diminish the cap.  I suspect that the cap will reassert itself for the overnight hours.

Rain for the first part of Saturday as the boundary moves east out of the area.  Now, this boundary isn’t really the cold front.  You’ll be able to tell because the winds will still be out of the Southwest.  Temperatures will be comfortable.  Now, as the vortlobe swings around the main storm to our north, that will be the real front.  It comes through in the afternoon and may produce some scattered activity in the afternoon on Derby Day.  There is nothing to indicate anything worthwhile.  All of the dynamics will be out of the area.  Bottom line is that the first part of Derby Day there will be lingering rain.  Overnight rain totals won’t be all that excessive but the infield will most likely be wet.  Should be interesting.  Afternoon stuff shouldn’t be too impressive but a passing shower can’t be ruled out. 

I used to deal Black Jack at the fraternity house.  Here’s the advice that I gave my brethren:  Bet Big, Win Big.  They took my advice and most of my weekend activities were paid for.  So, take my gambling advice at your own risk.

On This Date In History:  Confederate General Stonewall Jackson took one for the team on May 2, 1863.   Trouble was it was his own team that took him down.  The night after his greatest victory at Chancellorsville, Jackson led a recon mission and as he returned to his lines, his own men shot him.  His arm was shattered and the surgeon amputated it.  The next day they buried his arm complete with a headstone that reads, “Arm of Stonewall Jackson May 3, 1863.”  To hold down Jackson’s fever, the general ordered a servant put cold, wet towels over his body.  A week later, Jackson died of pneumonia.  They buried most of him about 100 miles away near Lexington, Virginia…and 100 miles from his arm.  It’s possible that he would have survived had they not put cold towels on his body.  One might say that Jackson’s arm got taken out by his soldiers and the rest of him went at the hands of his servants.

Good Housekeeping magazine was founded on this date in 1885. It was one of several ladies magazines that got started between 1880 and 1890. But…it’s the only one that has a segment today on WLKY Newschannel 32! (shameless plug)

What you see here is from The Cowboys John Wayne is whipping up on Bruce Dern. Right after this part, the Duke gets shot in the back by Dern. It’s one of the most despicable moments in cinematic history. I’m watching it right now. Dern is forever cast as one of the most low down vermin in my book. I cannot continue.

Oaks/Derby Daily Double? Real-Life Tony Soprano Helps G-Men April 29, 2008

More bark than bite to Monday afternoon’s stuff. Figured it was a bit of a stretch to get severe stuff but we did have some gusty winds for a time.  Derby Week Forecast still looks on track…sorta.  Tuesday, the sun returns and we will be cool.  Wednesday a chilly start gives way to upper 60′s and lower 70′s.  Can we say Steamboat Race?  How about a parade on Thursday? Why not. Partly cloudy and upper 70′s and low 80′s.  Now, we still have the aforementioned threat of afternoon showers and t’storms on Friday during Oaks Day.  We still have a front overnight.  Now, Sunday night we had a front followed by a break mid/late morning Monday and then another guy swung around Monday afternoon bringing rain followed by chillier air.  There is some evidence that we will have a similar deal this weekend.  Front comes through with mild air and then an upper low pivots around from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley which may trigger some rain/t’storms Saturday afternoon.  Its a cold pool aloft like Monday but the difference would be we would be near 70 at the surface and not 60 like Monday. Hence, lapse rates increased and rain chances enhanced.  It’s still 4 days away but certainly will be something to consider.  Just like everything in life…timing will be the key.

On This Date In History:  Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists?  Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time.  In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies.  Though the veracity of the claim is unclear,  US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. ”

What seems to contradict the idea that the mobsters helped out Uncle Sam is what bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled:

“Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents… ”    

It is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government.  Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition.   In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence.  The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel.  Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s.  So, on April 29, 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help and he eventually agreed with spectacular results.  With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help, United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents.  It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but  they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting.  Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence.  Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.