We Need Lucky Luciano In Charge of Kentucky Derby Weather April 29, 2010

We Could Use His Help For Derby Day

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History: Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists? Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time. In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies. Though the veracity of the claim is unclear, US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. “

When the government approached the mobsters to help out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed. He said, “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks. They went up to men working in the area and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.” Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship (aka USS Lafayette) and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned (video) while at the New York docks. The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government. Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition. In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence. The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel. Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s. So, on this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular. With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents. It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting. Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence. Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

SPC Severe Weather Probability 7AM Derby Day to 7 AM Sunday

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: We’re going to need a lot of luck for Derby Day because,  if you want good weather for the Kentucky Derby, come back next year. Now, Oaks Day looks great.  But the story that I’ve been eyeballing all week is really getting lots of data supporting it.  In general, it would seem to me that we get a cold front coming close to us and it stalls.  It gets parallel to the Southwest to Northeast Jetstream flow and stays oriented from around Gary, IN to east of St. Louis to Texarkana and on through San Antonio.  At low levels, there will be lots of moisture converging up the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.   I think we’ll have two time frames of maximum rain as two separate jet streaks comes through associated with an upper low. 

GFS Over 2 inches on Derby Day

Oaks Day will be fine..in fact it will be great.  Oaks Day weather looks to be in the low to mid 80′s, breezy and partly cloudy.  Then the first disturbance and strong upper energy comes through bringing heavy rain from say 6 AM to Noon.  Then, I would think that we’d see more scattered activity on Saturday afternoon during most of the races and the condition of the track will be a function of how well the track drains.  The NAM follows what makes sense to me and is most likely as it has an inch of rain from 7AM to 1 Pm and then a tenth of an inch in the afternoon.  Then, the second wave comes through Saturday night with the strong upper jet winds as it may even develop into a surface feature.  If we get severe weather, it seems that this would be the most likely time and high winds would be the biggest bugaboo. But, the story will be rain.  The NAM concludes at 7PM on Sunday with a 36 hour total of about 4 inches.  I’m referring to the 12Z Thur run so it doesnt’ go beyond 7 PM on Sunday but I bet it would have slightly more rain in the offing.  This scenario seems most sensible  to me.

By Sunday Evening GFS dumps over 5 inches of rain for 36 hour total

HOWEVER….the GFS…has a similar solution except that it has heavy rain all day on Saturday and carries it through Sunday night.  By early Monday morning, the GFS has over 5.1″ of rain in less than 36 hours.  The biggest difference is that the GFS has substantially more rain during the races on Derby Day than the other models.  The GFS solution has been closest to what is now the consensus all week and it makes the least sense should we have two seperate jet streaks.  With two different streaks it would call for something less in between.  However, we are going to stay in a jet stream flow over the top of us and, if there is no confluence aloft to limit rain, then we would get persistent rain. 

The Derby will be wet one way or another.  The degree of wetness is the question.  For we locals, make sure that drains are clear because, unlike the South, our geology is  not conducive to supporting such rainfall….not to mention the pumps  of which I might remind the authorities only work properly if you turn them on!

Peace Conference, Kentucky Derby Forecast Look All Wet April 28, 2010

This Outfit for Man and Horse Was Required for World War I But You May Need Something Else For Kentucky Derby 136

Click Image to See If There is Anyone You Know

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915 World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world. 

Aletta Jacobs

 One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation.   Later, this conference led to the creation of other groups including the Womens’ International League for Peace and Freedom.

This Banner At the Hague Really Made a Difference in 1915

What Did More To Bring an End to America's Involvement in Vietnam? John and Yoko sitting in bed giving peace a chance or Nixon bombing North Vietnam back to the negotation table?

People like these women meant well and their underlying notion has practical merit.  After the 30 Years War, Europeans came up with the Peace of Westphalia which was reached with everyone taking an eye toward balance of power.  The war had taught them that little was accomplished and the weaponry and methods of the day resulted in such destruction to the economy and people that war was becoming too costly to consider as a viable means of settling conflict.  But a condition of mankind seems to be one of violence and so ideals, regardless of their merit, tend to be squashed by reality.  These ladies seemed to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves would do anything when in fact, it did nothing.  Action requires boldness.  

The Great Seal of the United States of America

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace.  

You Tell'em, Teddy!

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to dissuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action.  The US achieved freedom through action.  Peace is ultimately achieved through action.   The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here: 

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.” 

I Told You So! (at least I think so)

Kentucky Derby 2010 Forecast: For several days I’ve been telling you about the potential for some interesting weather for Derby Day. I saw some local TV guys have a 30% chance for rain and I said how I wasn’t sold on that. Often when there are big events, forecasters tend to “wish cast” which would be making a forecast based on what they want it to be instead of what the data suggests. In this case, some models had the system slow and another fast. The slow model would result in a better Derby Day forecast and so many people chose that. Better to be the bearer of good news. I had surmised that the truth would probably be in between with rain likely on Saturday and strong storms possible. For now, it may be worth bringing out Colonel Klink and also for you to prepare for rain, though I do not think Churchill Downs allows umbrellas. But, you can place your bet on your favorite mudder. See details below.

SPC Outline of Area for Severe Storm Potential on Derby Day

GFS Has Heaviest Rain (1.5") Early Saturday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  After a chilly Wednesday start, we get into a warming trend starting today as high pressure in Louisiana moves to the east.  That will result in a SSW flow set up and create warm air advection as well as increase moisture from the Gulf.   The European model had been holding everything back such that it was possible that the next storm system didn’t get here until Sunday or even Monday.  But the GFS consistently brought it out much faster.  The GFS solution would have messed up both the 136th Kentucky Oaks on Friday and possibly the 136th Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  I had been looking for an ultimate outcome of something in between, meaning that I expected that Oaks Day would be partly cloudy, warm and breezy with a fair amount of rain on Derby Day with t’storms. I kept looking for severe weather on Saturday but the models weren’t all that committed.  At this time, the data is supporting my hypothesis except that now the models are more bullish on the severe potential and the Storm Prediction Center has jumped on board.  

NAM Initializes Rain Event Saturday morning

Yesterday, I mentioned that all we needed was a “kicker” to ignite the unstable atmosphere and we’d have an increased potential for severe weather on Saturday.  The GFS was throwing out about 2 inches of rain for Derby Day.  It would seem that now we do indeed have all the ingredients for not only excessive rain but also strong storms.  Basically, the main low makes its way to the Great Lakes but another low comes out of Northern Mexico into S0uth Texas.  That sets up a long frontal boundary from North to South with the boundary just to our west.  There will be ample southerly flow providing an influx of moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.  The low to the south will tend to slow the front down.  It will also tend to throw off pieces of energy.  

Canadian Advertises over an inch of rain Saturday Afternoon

So, we have a set up with a stalled front that will result in consistent rain and then a low tossing out energy that will run up along the front and produce a risk for severe weather as it moves NE along the boundary.  The GFS has backed off its rain plans on Friday though the NAM does want to try to increase chances.  I still think that Oaks Day will generally be fine unless a stray shower or t’shower moves over Churchill Downs.   Saturday though looks tough.  I also think that the rain chances will stay pretty high through Sunday.  Of course, this is Wednesday and things could change with regard to timing but so far, the data is generally coming more in line with what I had thought would be a likely scenario which was the one that made the most sense to me, regardless of what the models were saying.  And you know what…the weather always does what it will do without consulting the computers to find out what its supposed to do.  I would have a concern that the folks that got slammed by twisters last Saturday will be facing the potential for another round.

Specter Flip Helps GOP? House Tackles BCS; Final Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast May 2, 2009

I’d Love to See General Quarters Win

Joe May Regret Arlen’s Switch When It’s Time to Replace Souter

How Does the Switch of Arlen Specter from Republican to Democrat Hamper President Obama? 

With Specter changing sides, it helps the Democrats in passing legislation as Specter can help get them to the 60 votes needed in the Senate to block filibusters.  But, Specter is on the Judiciary Committee.  In order for a judge to come to the Senate floor for confirmation, he must first pass muster in the Senate Judiciary Committee.  The rules in the committee is that the candidate must get 10 votes with at least one coming from the minority party.  With Specter on the committee as a Republican, he could be the one guy to allow for a nominee to get to the floor.  But, with Specter gone, there really are not Republicans on the committee that  would vote for a person whom didn’t meet their standards.  The only member of the GOP on the committee that has shown any sense of bucking the party is Lindsay Graham and I doubt if he would go against the grain on a court nominee.  What this means is that President Obama is not going to be able to replace Justice David Souter on the Supreme Court with just anyone.  He will have to put forth someone whom the Republicans…or at least one Republican…on the committee will approve.  Specter’s defection may, in many regards, help the GOP and the judiciary appointments is a biggee.

House Members Investigate College Football

 

Committee Member Studies Testimony

Don’t they have better things to do?

  This reminds me of the note I posted some time ago about how, in the face of Katrina Recovery,  the Louisiana Legislature took up the issue of urinals.  So, let’s see…we have an economic crisis, an auto maker declaring bankruptcy, a flu crisis, a budget crisis, a health care crisis, 2 wars, Islamists pushing the Pakistani government with the possibility of Al Quaeda getting its hands on nuclear weapons, North Korea sending up missiles,  Iran continues to  pushing its nuclear program and Gitmo detainees potentially on American streets.  So, what does the House of Representatives think is important to hold a hearing about?  Why college football and it not having a playoff system.  Yup, there was a hearing Friday regarding the “deeply flawed” BCS system of finding a national champion in college football.  Yes, indeed.   Your tax dollars hard at work.  People complain about Congress all the time and we hear the “throw the bums out” cry.  But, most of the time, that seems to apply to the other guys, not our guy and so each district continues to send its Representative or state sends its Senator back to Washington.  Until people start to vote their own guys out, the shenanigans will continue.

00Z Sat NAM 6 hr rainfall 8AM-2PM Derby Day

00Z Sat Nam 6 hr rain 2pm to 8pm Derby Day

Kentucky Derby Weather:  Rain is in the forecast for Saturday.  The frontal boundary came through Louisville a couple of hours after the last Oaks Day Race on Friday.  There was rain in the early morning Friday that made the track wet but not really muddy.  Rain fell at a moderate rate in the evening and later Friday night in Louisville.  The front should set up shop to the South.  Louisville will be in the cooler air, which means no more warm and sticky conditions that we’ve had all week.  Instead, it will be cloudy with temperatures generally in the 50′s all day…perhaps touching 60 by day’s end.  It will probably not rain all day on Saturday but will do so off and on as little waves of energy run along the front and we get overrunning rain.  It should be generally light to perhaps moderate when it does fall.  While the folks at Churchill Downs to a good job keeping the track in good shape, remember, it is real dirt and not a synthetic surface.  The track should be wet.  The question will be how muddy is it?  You really need to check the track conditions before you make your bet.  The 00Z NAM is advertising less than a half inch for Saturday and the 18Z GFS is only coming up with about a quarter of an inch.  But, keep in mind that neither of those models nor the RUC had the rain that we got around midnight.  This illustrates how difficult it is to pick up the little waves as they roll along.  So predicting exactly when the rain falls on Saturday is generally beyond human capabilities in this situation.  We may get a stronger wave Saturday evening but I would think that would probably come after the races are over.  If you’re sticking around through the weekend, its going to be wet again on Sunday and into Monday as well.

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alphainventions

May 1 Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast; Pay No Attention to What They Say May 1, 2009

"Joe, Do Us Both a Favor and Keep Quiet"

Oaks Day Severe Weather Outlook

Don’t Listen To What I Say:  On Wednesday night, in a news conference, President Obama said that the Swine Flu situation was “a cause for deep concern, but not panic.”  Less than 12 hours later, Vice-President Joe Biden said on NBC’s Today Show that he would tell his family not to fly on airplanes or ride subways or any similar confined places.  Sounds like panic to me?  On April 25, President Obama asked federal employees to submit ideas to help him find ways to tighten the federal budget belt.  Just two days later, the White House dispatched Air Force One along with two F-16′s on a low level flight over New York City for a photo op.  The price tag to taxpayers was nearly $329,000.  I guess no one submitted the idea of not using Air Force One unnecessarily in an effort to tighten the old belt.  That’s because two days after the New York buzzing and terrorizing people in New York City who feared the low flying jumbo jet was another terrorist attack, the president took Air Force One to Arnold, Missouri to talk at a high school about his first 100 days. He then immediately flew back to Washington where he prepared for his evening press conference concerning his first 100 days.  No word on how much it cost for the round trip from DC to Arnold, but I’m sure they did it on the cheap to demonstrate how the White House is tightening its belt.

Manboobs?

Meanwhile, perhaps Alex Rodriguez should get into politics.  He told Katie Couric that he never used steroids.  Then, a few months later he confessed to juicing up when he was with the Texas Rangers.  Now, the same reporter who smoked out A-Rod and forced him to fess up, has a new book coming out that claims the sources say A-Rod was using steroids all the way back in high school and in fact did use them with the Yankees.  Unless the book has some proof other than lots of sources, then A-Rod should go with the Flinstones Vitamins Story of Sammy Sosa.  Then again, it didn’t work for Sam so maybe it wouldn’t work for Alex either.

Derby Day Severe Weather Outlook

Friday 8 PM

Kentucky Derby Forecast: (Click here for the most recent forecast) Here’s the bottom line.  We have a cold front that will move through late on Friday,  which is Oaks Day.  There was rain early Friday morning as a wave of energy rode along the frontal boundary.  I would think,along with clouds, will serve to help keep the atmosphere from getting too unstable.  But, there remains ample moisture and as the front moves through, rain will be prevalent again.  It is not out of the question to have some t’storms with the front and, if so, a few of the storms may be strong.  However, the fact that parameters will be dampened, it will mainly be a rain event.  Rain is indeed possible for the Oaks Race itself but we may get lucky and have it hold off until Friday night.  The track is wet.

 

Derby Day 8PM

On Derby Day, the front slips to the south which will put us in cooler air.  The threat for severe weather should remain to the south provided the front stays south.  The data suggests that enough high pressure will build in behind the boundary to keep it south in spite of small waves of energy running along the front providing for some overrunning rain in the area.  The timing of the wave is quite difficult if not impossible.  Its not like we have a big major feature.  These little guys are very difficult to really pinpoint but, all of the model data suggests off and on rain showers  on Saturday.  For handicappers…again…it comes down to how the track has drained regarding track conditions.  My guess is that it will be wet and somewhat muddy.  The folks at Churchill do a good job and the facilities I believe drains pretty efficiently.  Nevertheless, check the track conditions before placing your bets.  The model data only throws out about 3/4″ of rain for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.  But, I’m not so sure that the models are not under doing it on Friday as the front will have abundant moisture to work with when it comes through and picks up that stuff.  But, as long as the front gets far enough south on Saturday as progged, then the rain on Saturday should be relatively light to moderate at best.  Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50′s to low 60′s.  Below is the Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook for Derby Day.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO TN
VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…
A DEEP VORTEX ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH FAR
NRN QUEBEC TO JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY…WHILE THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ATTENDANT BROAD LONGWAVE EXTENDS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /90-100 KT/
WILL EXTEND FROM NRN IL TO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. MEANWHILE…MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND REACHING THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2…PRECEDING THE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE…A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA WSWWD THROUGH
KY TO ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO ERN/SRN OK…AND THEN EXTEND MORE
SWWD THROUGH NRN TO WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY SWD ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL VA WSWWD
THROUGH TN TO CENTRAL AR AND SERN OK. MODELS SUGGEST THE WRN EXTENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND SWD BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE NE-SW THROUGH CENTRAL TX AND THEN WWD FROM ABOUT 25 N JCT TO SW
TX.

…PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK…
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TX TO JUST S OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. 50+ KT SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS OK/N TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING /35-50 KT/ THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SW/
CENTRAL TX INTO NRN TX SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM SRN OK TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY TOWARD 00Z AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING SWRN STATES
TROUGH. THE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX INTO SERN OK/NERN TX AS A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ
EXTENDS INTO NRN/NERN TX.

…SERN OK/AR TO TN VALLEY…
SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM
SERN OK/AR TO THE TN VALLEY WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ IS
EXPECTED FROM SERN OK INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEPER THAN FARTHER E INTO THE TN VALLEY. 35-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO THE TN VALLEY/KY ON SATURDAY
BENEATH SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IN OH VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/ATTENDANT WIND THREAT GIVEN NEARLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW.

…VA/NC…
A MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF VA/NC ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VA… WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE…GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE
HEATING TAKES PLACE. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN LATER
MODELS…THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2009

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alphainventions

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast From 4.30.09; Dodge Boys Wives Sell Company Just in Time April 30, 2009

 

SPC Outlook Fri AM to Sat AM (Derby Day)

 

SPC Severe Outlook Sat AM to Sun AM

Kentucky Derby Weather: (For the most recent update click here) On the one hand, my previous assessment that Wednesday would be generally dry for most people was pretty much on the mark.  The front sagged to the South.  There was rain to the South and scattered heavy downpours to the north but Louisville was in decent shape and Snow White and I had a good time watching the Great Steamboat Race.  There is an important change in the data though for Derby Day and handicappers need to keep an eye on this before wagering.  In fact, I would suggesting holding your bets until Saturday.   This forecast was put together based on data available late Wednesday night.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu Midday To Fri AM

Now, we still have a pretty healthy chance for rain on Thursday.  The front lifts back north as a warm front.   The temperatures aloft will again be relatively warm so lapse rates will be weak.  The jet streak across the area should also move out.  But, lower level winds may increase creating a forcing situation in which air is forced upward.  For that reason, the Storm Predicton Center has put us on the edge of the slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.   If we get storms, they would probably be independent guys and bring the potential for gusty winds.  The moisture in the atmosphere is through the roof so there would be the potential for heavy downpours.  Should one or two of these guys go supercellular, then there could be a risk for an isolated tornado.

Friday 8am

Friday, we have similar surrounding circumstances but this time we have a cold front approaching.  That guy should create enough lift to create line segments of thunderstorms, some of which could be rather strong.  For the Kentucky Oaks, it is entirely possible that there will be rain from time to time during the races with rain chances and the threat for strong storms near the end of the day.  If race goers are lucky, the front will be pokey enough that the storms would hold off until  after the Oaks race itself.

Sat 8AM (Derby Day)

Saturday is the biggest change.  It had been advertised as being dry on Saturday, squeezing a good day in between unsettled ones as the front slides south.  Well, the front still slides south but there a rather deep low up around the Great Lakes that will be wandering by and from that a trof may extend through the Ohio Valley.  That weakness in the atmosphere as it rolls through may create some shower activity.  Handicappers need to check the drying potential of the track.  I think they’ve done a pretty good job with drainage over the years.  Now, the weakness coming through does show up as rain showers off and on both the 18Z Wed GFS and NAM vertical profile based indecies.  But, since it’s post frontal, the deep and abundant moisture should be south and so I would not expect there to be heavy rain, just passing showers.  Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 60′s but I think that the biggest issue would be that, if the track is not dry from the Friday rain, then the passing showers would only aggravate the situtation.  If it does dry out, then I would think the conditions would be livable, unless your horse doesn’t like to run in the rain.  Guess here is that the track is taken care of such that it won’t be that wet regardless of the Thursday and Friday rain amounts and that the passing showers or light rain on Saturday will not aggravate the conditions much.  However, keep in mind…I don’t know much about horse racing.  Hold your bets to make sure that the front does indeed move through on Friday night.  I have not seen any data that would suggest otherwise.  Sunday rain chances increase again.

See the severe weather discussion below for Friday 8 am to Saturday 8 am from midday Thursday 4.30.09.

On This Date In History Lots of things happened on this date: Washington’s first inaugural address in 1789, Louisiana Purchase in 1803. Michael Jackson’s “Beat It” debuted in 1983 and then in 1997, Ellen “came out.” The last two go in the “who cares?” category as far as I’m concerned. I like this one in 1925.

John and Horace Dodge

Dodge Brothers, Inc. was sold on this date in 1925 to an investment group (Dillon, Reed and Co,) for $146 million and then they tossed in another $50 million for charitable purposes.  $196 million in 1925 would be nearly $2.4 billion in 2008! A! I like this one because it first shows us the derivation of the Dodge Boys. The commercials for Dodge used to say “come and see your local Dodge Boys.” I thought

Walter Built a Cool Building But Timing on Buying Dodge Not So Cool

that modern PC sensativities snuffed that and I always figured that the saying was just from some sexist ad man in the ’50′s. Now I think differently as I suspect the term came from the fact that there were two brothers…the Dodge boys. The Dodge boys died in 1920.  Horace Dodge passed away in January 1920 and John Dodge followed suit in December 1920.  They had never let any of their family members in on the business. In 1921 there had been a slight recession in the stock market. So, the widows of the Dodge Boys were defacto in charge of the company but really had no clue what they were doing and a few years later the 20′s were roaring again. Afraid of another market dip, the ladies decided to sell in the biggest corporarte sale to that time. I suspect that if you take inflation into account, it would still list as one of the biggest. It was a good move for Dodge Ladies too because just 4 years later, the stock market tanked and there is little doubt it took decades for the stock price to recover.  Walter Chrysler’s timing wasn’t so good.  A year before the bottom fell out of the market, he bought Dodge Brothers for $170 million.

I won’t talk too much about this date in 1945 when Hitler committed suicide except to point out some things that may have been missing in your history class. Just before he pulled the trigger, Hitler expelled Hermann Goering and Heinrich Himmler from the Nazi party for not carrying out some of his last, insane commands. That is why he named Admiral Karl Doenitz to take his place and it was Doenitz who ultimately surrendered for Germany. A book by a man named C.L. Sulzberger that I would describe as something for

Goebbels Family Before Dad had Them All Killed

public consumption and not necessarily an academic work nonetheless has an interesting observation. He described Eva Braun as “plump.” Never heard of that before. At 3:15 Eva took poison. At 3:30 Hitler shot himself.  Joseph Goebbels had an SS guy shoot he and his wife…not sure if the wife agreed with that…but, I bet shooting old Joe was an easy order to follow. Here’s what I don’t get…they got shot after they poisoned their six kids! What did they do except get born to a moronic man? And then Hitler made sure his favorite dog was poisoned before he killed himself. I guess he thought the dog might talk. This stuff is important only in that people need to know that there was nothing redeeming about these people or their ideas and they were totally warped in every sense. Kids need to know the totality of their insanity before anyone can come and convince them that there is anything admirable or enviable to emulate.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU….

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY…NEAR THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH…TO THE EAST OF A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY.  HOWEVER…A STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
WEAKENING…SPLITTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THIS STREAM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.  AT LEAST WEAK DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…THOUGH THIS MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOMEWHAT…ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…BY
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.  A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST…BEFORE SLOWING OR
STALLING NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE OHIO RIVER
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

…UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST…
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN IMPULSE…AND A REMNANT
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE…APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS…COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBLE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING
EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…SUGGESTS THAT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION WILL BE LOW…DESPITE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING.  FRONTAL FORCING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY…PARTICULARLY WHERE BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO THE LEE
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER…GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT…STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AT BEST.

…SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…
AS A GULF RETURN FLOW CONTINUES…DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TOWARD 70F…TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY MOVING OR STALLING SURFACE
FRONT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…BUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING.  LIFT NEAR THE DRY LINE/ FRONT
INTERSECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SEEMS TO
OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIATION OF LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS…CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR…GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE…STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG/ NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT…ON THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET…BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW…PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE
HAIL…PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS…MAY ACCOMPANY EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO  THE OZARKS.

..KERR.. 04/30/2009

alphainventions
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Derby Day Forecast; “Swain” Saddle-Sores and The Polish Constitution May 3, 2008

Here is an image from the regional NWS radar at 8:38 PM on Friday night.  Note the appendage of rain and t’storms extending from Chicago into SE Illinois. That would represent the line of stuff that we’ve been talking about coming through here after midnight.  On the one hand, there is a lot of dry air around it so it would not appear that it would do much here. But, if you notice, there is also quite a bit of moisture up through the Ohio Valley.  There is a pretty SSW’erly good low level jet in that region and, even though we got worked over today, from this image I would say that the models will be correct and we will get some rain overnight.  The only caveat would be if the storms to the south cut off the moisture and potential energy(CAPE) from moving back in here.  I don’t think that what does return will be enough to bring us any real rough weather overnight but rain will  come through as previously forecast. 

 Given that, the data indicates that it will be out of here by 8 or 9 oclock in the morning Saturday.  Derby Day, the data is suggesting that we may have so much dry air that the front really could have a tough time kicking off much in the afternoon.  In fact, it’s not totally out of the question that it’s a pretty decent day with early afternoon highs in the low to mid 70′s before the temperatures cool later in the afternoon.  If the boundary is able to squeeze out any rain it wouldn’t be until 2 or 3 o’clock in the afternoon and there is a fair chance it would form to our east.  Derby Day will at least Place and may end up in the winner’s circle. But, a poncho may not be a bad idea, just in case. Remember…no umbrellas.

HERE IS THE ONLY LIVE LOCAL LOUISVILLE RADAR ON THE WEB

WLKY NEWSCHANNEL32 LIVE RADAR

 

On This Date In History:Mark Twain lucked out in 1866 when other’s luck went up in flames.  Twain had gained some fame for his newspaper article The Jumping Frog of Calaveras County.  But, the 30-year-old former Sam Clemens didn’t think you were really worth anything in literature until you were published in a magazine or a book.  He had wandered off to Hawaii.  Meantime, the ship Hornet had left New York for San Francisco loaded with kerosene and candles.  After 108 days at sea, a nitwit sailor ignited a barrel of kerosene and the ship went up like a torch.  The crew got away in three life boats but only one was heard from again.  Forty-Three days later, one lifeboat finished its 4,000 mile odyssey on the shores of Hawaii and Twain was there to get the story, though he was almost curtailed by a bad case of saddle sores.  His problems behind him, Twain sent his story to the mainland and received $300.  He then convinced two of the survivors to give him their diaries from which he wrote a more detailed article that was published in Harper’s Weekly.  Twain had entered the world of literary writers, sorta.  His hand writing was so bad the publishers credited Mark Swain.

Another Ironic Day in History: On This date in 1947, the Japanese new constitution took effect.  It was largely written by the American Caesar, General Douglas MacArthur.  Japan has enjoyed prosperity ever since.  The Polish people weren’t so fortunate.  On this date in 1791, inspired by the United States Constitution of 1787, the people of Poland got their own form of freedom with their new Constitution that gave the people rights much like the Americans.  Like the Japanese and MacArthur, the Polish Constitution was written largely by its king who recognized that the best government was the kind that worked for the people.  But, it didn’t last too long because the Monarchies of Poland’s neighbors didn’t share the ideals of egalitarianism.  A Prussian statesman said, “How can we defend our state . . . against a numerous and well-governed nation.” Russia, Austria and Prussia all invaded and by 1795, Poland was no more. 

Good thing for the United States that we had an ocean between us and those Europeans.

Derby Forecast Threatens the Winner’s Circle? What About Mr. Nightlinger? May 2, 2008

Okay…I told you all along that I was most concerned with this afternoon and that proved to be even more of the case than I anticipated. I think I said that the chance for monkeybusiness was better for Friday afternoon than Friday night but I didn’t bargain for a whole barrel of monkeys.  The day was decent until about noon and then it became evident that we were in for a lousy afternoon.  We were in a rather odd spot in that the atmosphere was pretty stable basically from just a tad west of I-65 and points east. Consequently, the storms moving in got zapped.  That didn’t surprise me.  What was of more significant was the length and coverage of the rain event.  We were just out of reach of the big time unstable air.  At least 7 people were killed in Arkansas and they had some pretty impressive looking supercells in western Tennessee with a few wandering into Western Kentucky.

Anyway…still looking for this activity to move out by the early evening.  Then another round comes in well after midnight.  Perhaps some rumbles of thunder but the severe threat will be minimal at best.  As I mentioned all week, the timing is no good, which is why I thought that Friday was a better time for the focus. This rain we’ve had has just used up the potential energy and it will be very difficult to reload overnight.  In fact, some data indicates that there may not be much at all as activity to the south cuts off much of the moisture and energy.  Nevetheless. any rain early on Derby Day should be done by say..8 AM or so. Then its generally dry. The true cold front should come through around 2 or 3 pm and there remains a relatively low possibility for a thin line or scattered activity with the frontal passage.  Some of the modeling data even suggests just clouds.  For the actual Derby race, it should be dry with temperatures backing off the early afternoon highs of the mid 70′s.  There will be a decent breeze.

Note the SPC and it’s severe threat for tomorrow is well to the south.

On This Date In History: Roscoe Lee Brown was born on this date in 1925 in Woodbury, New Jersey. He was a great actor who was educated at, among other places, Columbia University.  I didn’t know that he was track star and also taught French and Literature.  I liked him as Jebediah Nightlinger in The Cowboys.  I told you earlier today about how the dastardly Bruce Dern shot John Wayne in the back in The Cowboys.  Well, Roscoe Lee Brown helped do in Bruce Dern(Long Hair), making him one of the heroes of swift justice in cinematic lore! And very appropriately, if not ironically, on the 83rd anniversary of Roscoe Lee Brown’s birth, a horse named Mr. Nightlinger ran in one of the races (Aegon Turf Sprint) for Oaks Day.  Mr. Nightlinger was the favorite and won.  I’m sure Mr. Brown would have loved it. 

Rain Likely Friday afternoon For Kentucky Oaks May 2, 2008

Keep an eye on the radar. It’s live on our webpage.  As of 12:30 there are no severe storms to the west but rain is likely this afternoon.

You can find our live radar on our website…here is the link…the only place you’ll find a live Louisville radar on the web.

WLKY ADVANCED WARNING LIVE RADAR

 

What is going on is that we have the activity moving in from the west and it is bumping into strong southerly winds. That will tend to enhance the chances for strong storms. That is looking particularly the case in Western Kentucky and Tennessee where the SPC is considering another watch for later this afternoon.

Tornado Watch Southwest of Viewing Area Until 4 PM EDT May 2, 2008

Tornado Watch 250 has been issued from about Evansville to bootheel of Missouri.  Don’t panic or think this necessarily means that we will get something. Nevertheless, it’s worth watching what those storms will do as the day progresses.   We will monitor it.

Here’s the link for the specifics about the watch.

Tornado Watch 250 details

Update on SPC Forecast For Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby May 2, 2008

You can see the revision in the SPC outlook has a much smaller moderate risk and is shifted to the southwest from say Paducah to Shreveport.  The largest risk in our area is mainly wind and hail.  Otherwise, the general forecast remains as previously posted.

Here is the link to the SPC with their detailed discussion:

Latest SPC Forecast Link