We Need Lucky Luciano In Charge of Kentucky Derby Weather April 29, 2010

We Could Use His Help For Derby Day

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History: Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists? Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time. In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies. Though the veracity of the claim is unclear, US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. “

When the government approached the mobsters to help out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed. He said, “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks. They went up to men working in the area and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.” Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship (aka USS Lafayette) and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned (video) while at the New York docks. The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government. Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition. In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence. The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel. Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s. So, on this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular. With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents. It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting. Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence. Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

SPC Severe Weather Probability 7AM Derby Day to 7 AM Sunday

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: We’re going to need a lot of luck for Derby Day because,  if you want good weather for the Kentucky Derby, come back next year. Now, Oaks Day looks great.  But the story that I’ve been eyeballing all week is really getting lots of data supporting it.  In general, it would seem to me that we get a cold front coming close to us and it stalls.  It gets parallel to the Southwest to Northeast Jetstream flow and stays oriented from around Gary, IN to east of St. Louis to Texarkana and on through San Antonio.  At low levels, there will be lots of moisture converging up the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.   I think we’ll have two time frames of maximum rain as two separate jet streaks comes through associated with an upper low. 

GFS Over 2 inches on Derby Day

Oaks Day will be fine..in fact it will be great.  Oaks Day weather looks to be in the low to mid 80′s, breezy and partly cloudy.  Then the first disturbance and strong upper energy comes through bringing heavy rain from say 6 AM to Noon.  Then, I would think that we’d see more scattered activity on Saturday afternoon during most of the races and the condition of the track will be a function of how well the track drains.  The NAM follows what makes sense to me and is most likely as it has an inch of rain from 7AM to 1 Pm and then a tenth of an inch in the afternoon.  Then, the second wave comes through Saturday night with the strong upper jet winds as it may even develop into a surface feature.  If we get severe weather, it seems that this would be the most likely time and high winds would be the biggest bugaboo. But, the story will be rain.  The NAM concludes at 7PM on Sunday with a 36 hour total of about 4 inches.  I’m referring to the 12Z Thur run so it doesnt’ go beyond 7 PM on Sunday but I bet it would have slightly more rain in the offing.  This scenario seems most sensible  to me.

By Sunday Evening GFS dumps over 5 inches of rain for 36 hour total

HOWEVER….the GFS…has a similar solution except that it has heavy rain all day on Saturday and carries it through Sunday night.  By early Monday morning, the GFS has over 5.1″ of rain in less than 36 hours.  The biggest difference is that the GFS has substantially more rain during the races on Derby Day than the other models.  The GFS solution has been closest to what is now the consensus all week and it makes the least sense should we have two seperate jet streaks.  With two different streaks it would call for something less in between.  However, we are going to stay in a jet stream flow over the top of us and, if there is no confluence aloft to limit rain, then we would get persistent rain. 

The Derby will be wet one way or another.  The degree of wetness is the question.  For we locals, make sure that drains are clear because, unlike the South, our geology is  not conducive to supporting such rainfall….not to mention the pumps  of which I might remind the authorities only work properly if you turn them on!

Peace Conference, Kentucky Derby Forecast Look All Wet April 28, 2010

This Outfit for Man and Horse Was Required for World War I But You May Need Something Else For Kentucky Derby 136

Click Image to See If There is Anyone You Know

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915 World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world. 

Aletta Jacobs

 One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation.   Later, this conference led to the creation of other groups including the Womens’ International League for Peace and Freedom.

This Banner At the Hague Really Made a Difference in 1915

What Did More To Bring an End to America's Involvement in Vietnam? John and Yoko sitting in bed giving peace a chance or Nixon bombing North Vietnam back to the negotation table?

People like these women meant well and their underlying notion has practical merit.  After the 30 Years War, Europeans came up with the Peace of Westphalia which was reached with everyone taking an eye toward balance of power.  The war had taught them that little was accomplished and the weaponry and methods of the day resulted in such destruction to the economy and people that war was becoming too costly to consider as a viable means of settling conflict.  But a condition of mankind seems to be one of violence and so ideals, regardless of their merit, tend to be squashed by reality.  These ladies seemed to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves would do anything when in fact, it did nothing.  Action requires boldness.  

The Great Seal of the United States of America

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace.  

You Tell'em, Teddy!

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to dissuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action.  The US achieved freedom through action.  Peace is ultimately achieved through action.   The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here: 

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.” 

I Told You So! (at least I think so)

Kentucky Derby 2010 Forecast: For several days I’ve been telling you about the potential for some interesting weather for Derby Day. I saw some local TV guys have a 30% chance for rain and I said how I wasn’t sold on that. Often when there are big events, forecasters tend to “wish cast” which would be making a forecast based on what they want it to be instead of what the data suggests. In this case, some models had the system slow and another fast. The slow model would result in a better Derby Day forecast and so many people chose that. Better to be the bearer of good news. I had surmised that the truth would probably be in between with rain likely on Saturday and strong storms possible. For now, it may be worth bringing out Colonel Klink and also for you to prepare for rain, though I do not think Churchill Downs allows umbrellas. But, you can place your bet on your favorite mudder. See details below.

SPC Outline of Area for Severe Storm Potential on Derby Day

GFS Has Heaviest Rain (1.5") Early Saturday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  After a chilly Wednesday start, we get into a warming trend starting today as high pressure in Louisiana moves to the east.  That will result in a SSW flow set up and create warm air advection as well as increase moisture from the Gulf.   The European model had been holding everything back such that it was possible that the next storm system didn’t get here until Sunday or even Monday.  But the GFS consistently brought it out much faster.  The GFS solution would have messed up both the 136th Kentucky Oaks on Friday and possibly the 136th Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  I had been looking for an ultimate outcome of something in between, meaning that I expected that Oaks Day would be partly cloudy, warm and breezy with a fair amount of rain on Derby Day with t’storms. I kept looking for severe weather on Saturday but the models weren’t all that committed.  At this time, the data is supporting my hypothesis except that now the models are more bullish on the severe potential and the Storm Prediction Center has jumped on board.  

NAM Initializes Rain Event Saturday morning

Yesterday, I mentioned that all we needed was a “kicker” to ignite the unstable atmosphere and we’d have an increased potential for severe weather on Saturday.  The GFS was throwing out about 2 inches of rain for Derby Day.  It would seem that now we do indeed have all the ingredients for not only excessive rain but also strong storms.  Basically, the main low makes its way to the Great Lakes but another low comes out of Northern Mexico into S0uth Texas.  That sets up a long frontal boundary from North to South with the boundary just to our west.  There will be ample southerly flow providing an influx of moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.  The low to the south will tend to slow the front down.  It will also tend to throw off pieces of energy.  

Canadian Advertises over an inch of rain Saturday Afternoon

So, we have a set up with a stalled front that will result in consistent rain and then a low tossing out energy that will run up along the front and produce a risk for severe weather as it moves NE along the boundary.  The GFS has backed off its rain plans on Friday though the NAM does want to try to increase chances.  I still think that Oaks Day will generally be fine unless a stray shower or t’shower moves over Churchill Downs.   Saturday though looks tough.  I also think that the rain chances will stay pretty high through Sunday.  Of course, this is Wednesday and things could change with regard to timing but so far, the data is generally coming more in line with what I had thought would be a likely scenario which was the one that made the most sense to me, regardless of what the models were saying.  And you know what…the weather always does what it will do without consulting the computers to find out what its supposed to do.  I would have a concern that the folks that got slammed by twisters last Saturday will be facing the potential for another round.

The Greatest Maritime Disaster in US History: Sultana April 27, 2010

Steamboat Sultana Looked Overloaded to Everyone but the Captain

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

On this Date in History:  When we think of maritime disaster, one immediately thinks of the RMS Titanic.  After all, there have been numerous movies and documentaries that detail and discuss the incident.  When the news of the Titanic hit the papers, any other news of the day was lost to the backpages and buried.  Hence, when Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly across the English Channel, she had the misfortune of doing so the day after the Titanic sunk.  She died not too long after and so most Americans think of Amelia Earhart as the first lady of flight.  Back in 1865, the news of the killing of John Wilkes Booth on April 26 dominated the media.  So, when the greatest disaster in maritime history took place, it too was left to the backpages and since, like Harriet Quimby, has been largely lost in the conscience of American history.  Timing, they say, is everythying.

 The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded. The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers. On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2200 to 2500 former prisoners of war returning home on this date in 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers.  The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current. Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers. The deaths of at least 1700 souls was brought about by the fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, the river current was strong and turbulent and extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors.  Unlike the news of the sinking of the RMS Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Andersonville 1864

What adds to the tragedy is that the vast majority of those on-board were Union prisoners of war who had been held in the infamous Andersonville Confederate prison and other prisons such as Cahaba (aka Cahawba).  These soldiers, many wounded and extremely frail from their time in horrid prison conditions, wanted to get home as quickly as possible.  But, it was not just the desire to get home that resulted in the overloading of the boat.  I mean, the Captain could have simply said that his boat was full and told the rest to wait for the next one.  But, the policy of the government in providing transportation was to pay 5$ for each soldier transported.  Keep in mind that most soldiers received about $15 a month while they were fighting so $5 was a pretty good chunk of change.  It was such a good deal for the steamboats that boat captains regularly paid US Army officers $1.15 for every man that officer directed to a particular steamboat.  Bottom line is that the more people a captain could stuff on his boat, the greater his profit.

Andersonville Survivor-Many on the Sultana Were Very Frail

Now, the soldiers were loaded on board in Vicksburg, MS for a trip to Cairo, IL and the Sultana was just one of many boats providing transportation.  It was the chance of a lifetime for steamboat operators and any delay would result in the potential loss of profits.  So, when one of the boilers on the Sultana sprang a leak while in port at Vicksburg,   the captain ordered a patch be put on the leak.  This was a shortcut and perhaps a fatal mistake.  Most researchers suggest that the bulge in the boiler should have been removed and replaced.  But that would have taken about 4 days so the captain went the 1-day patch route.   If he had waited 4 days, other steamboats would certainly have picked up the precious cargo and there would be no way to make up for the loss as this mass transport would happen just once.   Historians Stephen Ambrose and Douglas Brinkley say that the US Army officers knew of the maintanence issues with the Sultana but were eager to get the $1.15 per man kick-back and loaded the unknowing soldiers on board.

On April 24, 1865 at about 9 pm, the Sultana cast off from Vicksburg.  Captain J. Cass Mason, who is described by the US Naval Institute as “respected” but “reckless,  told an army officer that he’d carried that many men in the past and that the boat was sturdy.  Mason was well aware that his boat was extremely overcrowded but did not consider it overloaded.  He assured the officer that the Sultana was a good ship and the men were in very capable hands.   The officer told Captain Moss, “Take good care of them.  They are deserving of it.”    With that, the ship was on its way to Memphis where on April 26, 1865 it stopped to pick up a load of coal.  At around midnight, it cast off again to continue it’s journey.  The repaired boiler exploded about 2 AM on this date in 1865 and the fact that it was only 7 miles upstream illustrates just how slow it was moving.  Between the load it was carrying and the flow of the river against it, it was only able to muscle 3.5 miles per hour.  The strain on the patch was too much.  It exploded and that caused two others to immediately blow up.  Fire raced through the boat, the two smokestacks fell and crushed many on the deck.  Keep in mind that a steamboat boiled water to create the steam so scalding water no doubt affected numerous passengers, many of whom were unable to move due to their condition and were in great pain from their wounds.

The Sultana was but 260 feet long with a draft of just 7 feet.  The RMS Titanic was 882 feet long.  The RMS Titanic had 2223 passengers and 700 survived the sinking while 1517 perished.  The much smaller Sultana carried 2200 to 2500 and 1700 to 1800  were killed in the disaster leaving  500 to 800  to survive initially, but 200 more would die later from their wounds.  The survivors of the Titanic were fortunate in that it was a still night with calm seas, but it was extremely cold and the water was freezing.  The weather conditions of the Sultana disaster weren’t nearly as cold, but the river had a very swift and turbulent current due to spring run-off from melting snow and seasonal rains upriver.  Those who escaped the exlosion had to fight the deadly current.  The boat itself was not completely destroyed in the explosion and fire but the hulk of wreckage floated downstream before ultimately sinking at Memphis where today it rests covered in mud and covered by the Mississippi River.

SPC Severe Probability Thurs AM to Fri AM

12Z Tue GFS Very Bullish for Rain Midday Derby Day

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m not convinced that it’s going to be dry for the Kentucky Derby Forecast.  The longer range models still show disagreement in that the European model keeps big storms several hundred miles to the West on Friday while the GFS has  a cold front draped across St. Louis.   Either way, we will get a warming trend ahead of the system beginning on Wednesday.  Moisture levels will also be increasing as we head to the low to mid 80′s. 

12Z Tue NAM Hold Rain Just West for Oaks Day

I still have an eyebrow raised about the prospects of severe weather around here but I don’t see a kicker.  Further, the GFS vertical profile prog doesn’t really present menacing severe indecies.  However, the GFS does throw out a little more than a half inch of rain for Friday afternoon which may mean we have a questionable Oaks Day Forecast.  I tend to think that we will be okay for Oaks Day.  I”m not sure if the progression will be as slow as the Storms Prediction Center seems to be going with, which is the European solution.  My guess is that the timing of this will be something in between the GFS and European.  Any slow down in the GFS solution will result in a pretty good Oaks Day.  But, the GFS throws out 2 inches of rain in Louisville from 1AM Saturday morning until 7 pm Derby Day.  Even if it’s slower, we get rain and t’storms for the afternoon.  Every model right now throws out some amount of rain for Derby Day.   So, if you are picking a horse early, a good mudder will be a wise decision.  However, I think the wisest thing will be to wait to make your wager.  There is such disagreement with the data that its difficult to really pin down a firm forecast.  While all indications are that we will have low level convergent flow and an increasing jet stream intensity, which would support t’storms, the timing is debatable.  Should that scenario play out and some sort of kicker like a shortwave come through the flow, then we’re talking severe potential.  I have a fair amount of confidence that the rain and t’storm chances will be high for Derby Day.  I feel pretty good about the idea that Oaks Day will be warm, breezy and partly cloudy.  But, there is enough uncertainty that its probably not a good idea to hang your derby hat just yet.

John Wilkes Booth’s Assassin: Man of Mystery April 26, 2010

Booth Wanted Poster

On This Date In History:

A new conspiracy theory got started when presidential assassin John Wilkes Booth was killed in a barn on this date in 1865. It’s kinda interesting how infamous he is to this day.   Americans these days generally are pretty poor when it comes to history yet, this guy is probably one of the better known villains known to just about everyone.  Probably not as well known as Colonel Sanders, but still,  most people recognize the name John Wilkes Booth.  That was true in 1865 as well because he was quite famous as an actor.  Today, it would be like a famous, good looking actor like Brad Pitt being an assassin. Or maybe more like Alec Baldwin because Booth’s brothers were also actors and all three followed in the footsteps of their father, Junius.   Anyway, after he murdered President Lincoln, Booth escaped Ford’s Theatre by jumping from the presidential box to the stage.   His spur caught in a curtain or some bunting and he landed awkwardly such that he broke his leg.   The story of Booth’s escape remains so compelling that as recently as 1995, the Washington Post published a story retelling the fugitive’s tale.  

Booth Brothers (L-R) John, Edwin, Junius Jr.

No doubt, the broken leg  complicated his original plan for elusion.   He and co-conspirator David Herold made their way to the home of Dr. Samuel Mudd on April 15, 1865.  In a statement to authorities, Dr. Mudd recounted that he had met Booth previously at St. Mary Catholic Church in Bryantown, MD, where he was introduced by Mudd’s neighbor, J.C. Thompson, as someone looking to purchase some land.  Booth  spent the night at the doctor’s home before purchasing a horse from Mudd’s neighbor.  Suspicion has held that Booth was really recruiting Mudd as an accomplice but the evidence at the time obviously was not too convincing.  Mudd was convicted later for aiding Booth but President Andrew Johnson pardoned Mudd after the doctor served four years in prison.   Mudd set Booth’s leg in a make-shift splint and he and Herold left the next day.  Eventually, they crossed the Potomac River into Virginia where Booth had hoped to gain sancutary.

Artist Conception of Booth Being Dragged From Garrett's Barn

 They came to the farm of Richard H. Garrett south of Port Royal, Virginia.  Garrett’s 11-year-old son grew up to become a Baptist minister and made a little cottage industry of retelling the tale of the final hours of John Wilkes Booth.  According to the then young Garrett, Confederate mail had been halted after Lee’s surrender and the family had no idea that the president had been killed.  However, it must be noted that many historians have been unable to confirm the story of Booth’s visit with the Garretts except that a detachment of men who were hot on the trail of Booth and Herold caught up with the men and found them hiding in Garrett’s barn on the morning on this date in 1865.  Herold surrendered when the order was given for the men to do so, but Booth refused.  

David E. George Claimed on Deathbed in 1903 He Was John Wilkes Booth

Rev. Garrett’s story notwithstanding, the whole Booth episode has been muddled over the years and there are many loose ends, which I suppose is one reason why it remains a relatively popular subject in literary circles.  There is a website that claims that the Ghost of John Wilkes Booth appeared in Chicago and said that he really broke his leg falling off his horse.  Keep in mind that this site thinks there was a Union General “McClennon” and not the proper McClellan, so I’m not sure how much stock to put in it. A more famous story is that of  Finis L. Bates, who wrote in 1907  that Booth really escaped, changed his identity and committed suicide in 1903.  In some association with that story, there has been a rumor that Booth lived as John St. Helen in Texas before moving to Enid, Oklahoma as David E. George and then killed himself. 

Booth's Supposed Mummy

Anyway, the prevailing orders to the pursuers of the assassin were to take Booth alive. With the presumed guilty party trapped in the barn, he had nowhere to run so they could have just waited him out.  Instead, the Union soldiers lit the barn on fire to try and smoke him out. But, before he had a chance to come out, Sergeant Thomas P. “Boston” Corbett stuck his musket through a slit in the barn walls and shot him.  I think the thought is that the bullet severed Booth’s spine. So, the assassin was killed and whenever an assassin is killed before being brought to trial, conspiracy theories begin.   That has certainly been the case with John Wilkes Booth.   

Booth's Escape Route Took Him To Garrett's Barn April 24, 1865

Corbett testified that he fired a carbine, yet the autopsy showed Booth was killed with a pistol bullet. When Booth was dragged from the barn, the officer in charge said, “He shot himself.” Then of course came the claims that Booth really wasn’t killed and that it was all made up or the dead guy was a Booth lookalike.   There is also the theory that Corbett was part of a cover up and that he killed Booth to make sure that the accused couldn’t talk.   That same type of thing came up 100 years later when Jack Ruby shot Lee Harvey Oswald following the assassination of President Kennedy. In the early 20th century, a carnival barker claimed that he had the mummified body of John Wilkes Booth. I’m not sure if anyone has explained how or why the presidential assassin would have been turned into a mummy but I suppose the display was intended as proof that they got their man!

Corbett Could Still Be on the Loose!

Corbett went on claiming he shot Booth and had a simple explanation as to why he disobyed orders.   He blamed God!   He said that God told him to do it and that his orders from God were ultimate.   He also said that God once told him to avoid sexual temptation.   To insure that he would  avoid such circumstance, Corbett said that he castrated himself with a pair of scissors in 1858.   If nothing else, it shows he was somewhat of a zealot or perhaps it illustrates that he was a nut.

If Abe Was Still Lurking in the 1870's, then Why Not Corbett Today?

I’m not sure what it took in the 19th century to disqualify one for a job because the man who was not at his post guarding the door the night the president was assassinated kept his job in security.  And, in the same way, the self-castrating-order-disobeying Corbett managed to gain employment with the state of Kansas when he was appointed as the doorkeeper of the Kansas legislature.  Corbett was dismissed in 1887 after threatening a lawmaker with a gun.   He was committed to an insane asylum (imagine that) but escaped and was never heard from again. Now, there is a famous photo of Mary Todd Lincoln from between 1870-76 that supposedly revealed the image of her dead husband standing behind her comforting her.  So, perhaps it’s best to be careful.  Thomas P. “Boston” Corbett may still be at large and  running around out there somewhere.  He may even have a pair of scissors in his hand!  But, then again,  there may be nothing to fear as the real fate of Corbett is that God simply told him to just go away.

Weather Bottom Line:  Rain chances hold tough for Tuesday as a shortwave dives down from the northwest through the flow.  Probably nothing overly significant but Monday and Tuesday will be relatively cool with a fairly fast and significant warm up for the rest of the week into the weekend.  Low  80′s by Friday if not Thursday.  Question is the weekend.  The GFS is very fast with its evolution of a storm system and its progression across the US.  If the GFS as the 12Z Monday run is verfied, then we could see some significant storms this weekend, quite possibly around post time for the Derby.  But, the European model has no such thing and keeps the deep trof way out to the west.  Tough to say which one wins out.  I’m betting on something in between….guess is we get storms but not until Sunday.  I say its a guess but maybe its an example of wishcasting.

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast From 4.29.09; Uncle Sam Got Lucky in World War II April 29, 2009

SPC Severe Outlook Fri 8am to Sat 8am

Kentucky Derby Forecast: (See Most Recent Update By Clicking Here) The forecast for the next several days remains pretty much in line with my previous outlook. The week leading up to Derby Day will be unsettled with a frontal boundary stalled over or near the area for the remainder of the week.  There will be a risk of showers and scattered t’storms each day.  On Friday there is a little wave of energy that runs up along a stalled boundary and strong storms will be possible late Friday into Friday night.   It is not out of the question that the storms may be here for Oaks Day and the running of the Kentucky Oaks race itself.  At this time, it’s too soon to be that accurate with the timing.  However, if storms do erupt in the afternoon in the heat of the day, that will only enhance severe chances.  If I recall correctly, last year there were severe storms all around the place on Oaks Day and we may see a repeat performance.

The result of the low running along the front is that, once it passes, then it will energize the boundary and start it on its way South.  High pressure will build in briefly on Saturday which should make for a mild, but dry Derby Day with highs in the upper 60′s.  Handicappers will have to consider the track conditions from the amount of rain the previous afternoon and night.  I think it drains pretty well and any shower activity that occurs overnight should be over by Saturday morning. Check back daily for updates.   See the SPC Convective Outlook Discussion Below

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History:  Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists?  Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time.  In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies.  Though the veracity of the claim is unclear,  US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. ”

When the government approached the mobsters to help  out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed.  He said,  “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks.  They went up to men working in the area  and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.”    Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned while at the New York docks.   The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government.  Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition.   In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence.  The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel.  Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s.  So, on  this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular.  With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents.  It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but  they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting.  Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence.  Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outllook Discussion

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

VALID 011200Z – 061200Z

…DISCUSSION…

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW NOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW THOUGH
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. CONSENSUS IS THAT FINAL PIECE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR INTO THE NRN PLAINS DAY 4 AND BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
LARGE VORTEX SITUATED OVER ERN CANADA. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

DAY 4…COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND OH
VALLEY FRIDAY AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOIST AXIS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD MIGRATING LOW
LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND
OK WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST.

DAY 5…SATURDAY A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
TRAILING END OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF TX WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER…THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER END SEVERE
THREAT.

DAY 6…THOUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST…MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS…BUT WILL HOLD OFF
DELINEATING AN OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE.

BEYOND DAY 6 PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2009

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Ghost of Booth, His Assassin; Miss CA Coverage April 26, 2009

Booth Wanted Poster

On This Date In History:

A new conspiracy theory got started when presidential assassin John Wilkes Booth is killed in a barn on this date in 1865.  It’s kinda interesting how infamous he is.  Americans these days generally are pretty poor when it comes to history yet, this guy is probably one of the better known villains even today.  Not as well known as Colonel Sanders, but still, Booth was quite famous as an actor.  Today, it would be like a famous, good looking actor like Brad Pitt being an assassin.    Anyway, Booth had escaped Ford’s Theatre by jumping from the presidential box to the stage. His spur caught in a curtain and he landed awkwardly such that he broke his leg.  That made it difficult for him to escape and he eventually got cornered in a barn near Fort Royal, Virginia.  However, there is a site that claims that the Ghost of John Wilkes Booth appeared in Chicago and said that he really broke his leg falling off his horse.  Keep in mind that this site thinks there was a Union General “McClennon” and not the proper McClellan, so I’m not sure how much stock to put in it.

Anyway, the orders were to take Booth alive. With the assassin trapped in the barn, the Union soldiers lit the barn on fire to try and smoke him out.  But, before he had a chance to come out, Sergeant Thomas

Booth's Mummy

Corbett stuck his musket through a slit in the barn walls and shot him.  I think  the thought is  the bullet severed Booth’s spine he died.  So, the assassin was killed and the conspiracy theories began.  Corbett testified that he fired a carbine, yet the autopsy showed Booth was killed with a pistol bullet.  When Booth was dragged from the barn, the officer in charge said, “He shot himself.”  Then of course came the claims that Booth really wasn’t killed and that it was all made up.  There is also the theory that Corbett was part of a cover up and that he killed Booth to make sure that the accused couldn’t talk.  That same type of thing came up 100 years later when Jack Ruby shot Lee Harvey Oswald following the assassination of President Kennedy.   I’m not sure why but someone went and mummified the body of John Wilkes Booth…I suppose as proof that they got their man!

Corbett Could Still Be on the Loose!

But, Corbett went on claiming he shot Booth.  So, why did he disobey orders?  He blamed God!  He said that God told him to do it and that his orders from God were ultimate.  He also said that God once told him to avoid sexual temptation.  Instead of avoiding such circumstance, Corbett castrated himself with a pair of scissors in 1858.  He was appointed as the doorkeeper of the Kansas legislature but was dismissed in 1887 after threatening a lawmaker with a gun.  He was committed to an insane asylum (imagine that) but escaped and was never heard from again.  Be careful, perhaps he’s still running around out there somewhere.  Then again, maybe God told him to just go away. 

On This date in 1970, Gypsy Rose Lee died and On this Date in 1989,  Lucille Ball passed away.

On This Date in 1990  Nolan Ryan threw is 12th one hitter, tying Bob Feller’s record.  He had a record 7 no-hitters and lost 5 no-hitters in the 9th inning.  My friends and I always went to an Astros game every series they played.  Saw Ryan a bunch of times.  We called him the Big Heater, which I like better than the Ryan Express.

Should Have Answered The Question

On This Date in 2000 Vermont Governor Howard Dean signed into law the nation’s first law allowing same-sex couples to form state recognized Civil Unions.  Apparently that wasn’t good enough and now Vermont has joined some other states in making same sex marriage legal.  It is a subject that may have cost Miss California, Carrie Prejean,  her chance at winning the Miss USA title.  The question she received was far tougher than any that the other contestants got and was also presented, in my opinion, for no good reason except to push an agenda.  Not sure why Trump had that character on the judges panel.  But, what most people seem to miss is that the woman didn’t answer the question!  If she had just answered the question, she may have won.  The question wasn’t her opinion, it was about states passing allowing same sex marriage.  All she had to say was that she believed that each state should be able to allowed to make their own laws based on the will of the people, not on courts or judges.  But, instead, she gave her opinion regarding the definition of marriage. So, perhaps she should have lost since she didn’t answer the question…or maybe she should get into politics since politicians are famous for not answering questions.  It’s interesting to see how this is being reported.  The take from Fox News is quite different from the UK Telegraph and certainly, as one might expect, different from the Gay/Lesbian/Trans San Francisco Bay Times.

On This date in 1948 Stevie Nicks was born.  I found a site that lists her as “rocker/druggie”

SPC Severe Outlook Today

Weather Bottom Line: Okay, we have some changes coming and for Derby Festival organizers it’s not necessarily good.  Sunday we pushed toward 90.  After Monday, the unseasonably warm temperatures will come to an end.  What is happening is that we have a cold front approaching.  But, its bumping into a big fat high in the Southeast and it is not too interested in breaking down much or moving much.   So, what happens is that the front slowly comes through on Tuesday and doesn’t really pass until Tuesday night.  So, rain chances will crescendo on Tuesday.  Now, with that high so fat and happy,  the front won’t move too far south.  It’s possible we have post frontal rain.  The GFS wants to throw out 1.5 inches from Tuesday midday to Wednesday midday.   The NAM tosses out over an inch but starts it earlier on Tuesday and ends it on Tuesday night.  The NAM doesn’t go farther but the GFS indicates rain chances will remain healthy through the rest of the week as the boundary lolligags just to our south and then returns back through the area as another front comes through on Friday.

SPC Severe Outlook Monday

The SPC loses interest on severe chances here for Tuesday, in spite of all of the action going on in the plains Sunday and Monday.  The problem is that the air aloft is warm and the jetstream winds slacken off.  So, there is a question of instability.  The vertical profiles indecies support that contention.  However, the GFS is interested in increasing thunderstorm chances throughout the week.  I’ve seen forecasts for Derby Day with a chance for rain but I think that’s the old CYA forecast because it looks like to me from the GFS that a high builds in behind the front for Saturday.   I suppose the question arises from the Euro in that it does have the ridge come in but also has a low coming out of the Southwest with a warm front swinging back up and bringing ample rain on Sunday morning.  My guess is that, should the data hold true, we have good Kentucky Derby weather with mild conditions sandwiched in between rain on Friday and Saturday night or Sunday.  But, the timing of the return flow would be a question and that is why you may see rain chances on Saturday.  It will become more clear as the week progresses.

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
  
   VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
   VALLEY MONDAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN
   CANADA TUESDAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF
   THE ERN U.S. COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
   THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. TRAILING
   END OF FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT SHOULD
   STALL ACROSS TX BEFORE RETREATING NWD OVERNIGHT. CUTOFF UPPER LOW
   WILL EVOLVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW…AND A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME
   WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OF
   THE WRN STATES.
  
   …SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX…
  
   FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE FROM WRN THROUGH NRN TX AS IT BECOMES
   PARALLEL TO DEEP LAYER FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. SOME
   CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY
   TUESDAY. RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT OR ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND ADVECT NWWD INTO
   WRN TX AND ERN NM BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG. TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES EJECTING INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS FROM WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE DIFFICULT…BUT ANY
   SUCH FEATURES WILL MODULATE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING THE DAY.
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG E-W ORIENTED
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. OTHER STORMS
   MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN
   NM AND WRN TX. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS…VEERING PROFILES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT…35-45 KT…BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE
   STORMS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
  
   AS THE SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS…ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
   DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS PROCESS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
   OVERNIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE…NERN NM AND SWRN KS.
  
   …OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES…
  
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG NARROW AND MODEST MOIST AXIS
   PRECEDING THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN MODERATE-STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW.
   HOWEVER…THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS…SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL
   REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
   THIS TIME.
  
   ..DIAL.. 04/26/2009

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Kentucky Derby Forecast Right On; Big Win For Bill May 3, 2008

The forecast as previously outlined is right on track.  As of 7AM the corridor of support and moisture is just east of Downtown Louisville and moving slowly East.  The infield will be wet.  The track is not synthetic and so it too will be muddy in spite of the drainage, though winds may dry it out.  The track received over an inch of rain on Friday and somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/3 to 3/4 of an inch overnight.  The front at 7AM is northwest of St. Louis and looks on line to make an appearance Saturday afternoon.  Temperatures prior to passage should be in the low to perhaps mid 70′s.  I suspect that we will see a period of sunshine but the clouds will return with the front and it may squeeze out some largely inconsequential showers; certainly I wouldn’t look for a deluge like on Friday. Temperatures will fall back to the 60′s following frontal passage.

Keep up with live radar displays on WLKY.com  It’s not 5 minutes old like other outlets. It’s really a live streaming of our in-house SuperDoppler32 radar.  Just click on the radar on the front page.

LIVE WLKY SUPERDOPPLER32 RADAR LINK
 
On This Date In Derby History: 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker became the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby when he rode Ferdinand to victory on this date in 1986.

When I was a kid, I didn’t really follow horse racing and I don’t now too much.  But, I did know about Shoe and I cheered him whenever we watched any of the Triple Crown races.  It seems like horse racing was bigger back then.  TV ratings  today are down but that can be said for many sports as there are more TV choices and more choices for people to spend their entertainment dollars.  But…I have a theory that I think would help horse racing and it has to do with the media and presentation.

Average fans with a partial interest like me didn’t know who the trainers were.  We knew guys like Shoemaker and Arcaro.  We knew of the horses like Seattle Slew and Ferdinand.  I even remember Bee Bee Bee and Ariva Ridge.  But I noticed a few years ago that when a horse won the Derby, the announcer said, “and D. Wayne Lucas wins again!” and they showed the owners of the horse, interviewed the owners and Mr. Lucas.  NASCAR has grown in popularity and I’m a casual fan like I am of horse racing.  But I know of Jeff Gordon. I know of Dale Earnhardt, Jr and even Dale Jarrett.  Their crew chief is extremely important. The owner is important.  But it’s the drivers who are promoted. Fans can relate to the guy(or gal, Danica) who is out there risking their lives and doing the driving.  When Dale Earnhardt won a big race, the announcer didn’t first say “and (crew chief name)  wins again!”  They said that Dale Earnhardt won.  They didn’t focus on the owner, they focused on the driver. 

All I’m suggesting is that if they went back to promoting and focusing on the jockey doing the riding and putting his hide on the line and the horse who is actually doing the running, then maybe casual fans like me would have more interest and have someone to  cheer for.  I can’t get all worked up cheering for some guy walking around who trains the horse. I don;’t even know what that is. I mean, do they actually ride the horses in training or do they just  stand there and tell someone else what to do.  It seems like to me the trainer is like the crew chief. Very important and vital to success but not the guy fans want to cheer for.  Same with the owner. Ownership is vital. Look at baseball. If you have a crummy owner you have a crummy team.  George Steinbrenner took some focus off the team but people cheer for the Yankees, not him.  I can’t relate to a guy in a nice suit sitting in the stands and then get all worked up for  him if  his horse wins.  It’s the jockey.   When the Giants won the Super Bowl, they focused on Eli Manning.  Then they talked about head coach Tom Coughlin but the focus was primarily on Manning and the big plays. We cheer for the players.

As I said I’m a casual fan and that’s my opinion for what it’s worth.  I brought this up one time to someone who owned a horse and I got slammed, big time.  So, take it for what it’s worth.  Remember Bill Shoemaker today and enjoy the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  For all of you visitors out there, enjoy Louisville, its a great town. I’m not a native but I love this place and I love the photo of two of my favorite sports figures of all time: Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Shoemaker.
 
 

Derby Day Forecast; “Swain” Saddle-Sores and The Polish Constitution May 3, 2008

Here is an image from the regional NWS radar at 8:38 PM on Friday night.  Note the appendage of rain and t’storms extending from Chicago into SE Illinois. That would represent the line of stuff that we’ve been talking about coming through here after midnight.  On the one hand, there is a lot of dry air around it so it would not appear that it would do much here. But, if you notice, there is also quite a bit of moisture up through the Ohio Valley.  There is a pretty SSW’erly good low level jet in that region and, even though we got worked over today, from this image I would say that the models will be correct and we will get some rain overnight.  The only caveat would be if the storms to the south cut off the moisture and potential energy(CAPE) from moving back in here.  I don’t think that what does return will be enough to bring us any real rough weather overnight but rain will  come through as previously forecast. 

 Given that, the data indicates that it will be out of here by 8 or 9 oclock in the morning Saturday.  Derby Day, the data is suggesting that we may have so much dry air that the front really could have a tough time kicking off much in the afternoon.  In fact, it’s not totally out of the question that it’s a pretty decent day with early afternoon highs in the low to mid 70′s before the temperatures cool later in the afternoon.  If the boundary is able to squeeze out any rain it wouldn’t be until 2 or 3 o’clock in the afternoon and there is a fair chance it would form to our east.  Derby Day will at least Place and may end up in the winner’s circle. But, a poncho may not be a bad idea, just in case. Remember…no umbrellas.

HERE IS THE ONLY LIVE LOCAL LOUISVILLE RADAR ON THE WEB

WLKY NEWSCHANNEL32 LIVE RADAR

 

On This Date In History:Mark Twain lucked out in 1866 when other’s luck went up in flames.  Twain had gained some fame for his newspaper article The Jumping Frog of Calaveras County.  But, the 30-year-old former Sam Clemens didn’t think you were really worth anything in literature until you were published in a magazine or a book.  He had wandered off to Hawaii.  Meantime, the ship Hornet had left New York for San Francisco loaded with kerosene and candles.  After 108 days at sea, a nitwit sailor ignited a barrel of kerosene and the ship went up like a torch.  The crew got away in three life boats but only one was heard from again.  Forty-Three days later, one lifeboat finished its 4,000 mile odyssey on the shores of Hawaii and Twain was there to get the story, though he was almost curtailed by a bad case of saddle sores.  His problems behind him, Twain sent his story to the mainland and received $300.  He then convinced two of the survivors to give him their diaries from which he wrote a more detailed article that was published in Harper’s Weekly.  Twain had entered the world of literary writers, sorta.  His hand writing was so bad the publishers credited Mark Swain.

Another Ironic Day in History: On This date in 1947, the Japanese new constitution took effect.  It was largely written by the American Caesar, General Douglas MacArthur.  Japan has enjoyed prosperity ever since.  The Polish people weren’t so fortunate.  On this date in 1791, inspired by the United States Constitution of 1787, the people of Poland got their own form of freedom with their new Constitution that gave the people rights much like the Americans.  Like the Japanese and MacArthur, the Polish Constitution was written largely by its king who recognized that the best government was the kind that worked for the people.  But, it didn’t last too long because the Monarchies of Poland’s neighbors didn’t share the ideals of egalitarianism.  A Prussian statesman said, “How can we defend our state . . . against a numerous and well-governed nation.” Russia, Austria and Prussia all invaded and by 1795, Poland was no more. 

Good thing for the United States that we had an ocean between us and those Europeans.

Derby Forecast Threatens the Winner’s Circle? What About Mr. Nightlinger? May 2, 2008

Okay…I told you all along that I was most concerned with this afternoon and that proved to be even more of the case than I anticipated. I think I said that the chance for monkeybusiness was better for Friday afternoon than Friday night but I didn’t bargain for a whole barrel of monkeys.  The day was decent until about noon and then it became evident that we were in for a lousy afternoon.  We were in a rather odd spot in that the atmosphere was pretty stable basically from just a tad west of I-65 and points east. Consequently, the storms moving in got zapped.  That didn’t surprise me.  What was of more significant was the length and coverage of the rain event.  We were just out of reach of the big time unstable air.  At least 7 people were killed in Arkansas and they had some pretty impressive looking supercells in western Tennessee with a few wandering into Western Kentucky.

Anyway…still looking for this activity to move out by the early evening.  Then another round comes in well after midnight.  Perhaps some rumbles of thunder but the severe threat will be minimal at best.  As I mentioned all week, the timing is no good, which is why I thought that Friday was a better time for the focus. This rain we’ve had has just used up the potential energy and it will be very difficult to reload overnight.  In fact, some data indicates that there may not be much at all as activity to the south cuts off much of the moisture and energy.  Nevetheless. any rain early on Derby Day should be done by say..8 AM or so. Then its generally dry. The true cold front should come through around 2 or 3 pm and there remains a relatively low possibility for a thin line or scattered activity with the frontal passage.  Some of the modeling data even suggests just clouds.  For the actual Derby race, it should be dry with temperatures backing off the early afternoon highs of the mid 70′s.  There will be a decent breeze.

Note the SPC and it’s severe threat for tomorrow is well to the south.

On This Date In History: Roscoe Lee Brown was born on this date in 1925 in Woodbury, New Jersey. He was a great actor who was educated at, among other places, Columbia University.  I didn’t know that he was track star and also taught French and Literature.  I liked him as Jebediah Nightlinger in The Cowboys.  I told you earlier today about how the dastardly Bruce Dern shot John Wayne in the back in The Cowboys.  Well, Roscoe Lee Brown helped do in Bruce Dern(Long Hair), making him one of the heroes of swift justice in cinematic lore! And very appropriately, if not ironically, on the 83rd anniversary of Roscoe Lee Brown’s birth, a horse named Mr. Nightlinger ran in one of the races (Aegon Turf Sprint) for Oaks Day.  Mr. Nightlinger was the favorite and won.  I’m sure Mr. Brown would have loved it. 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning For Kentucky Oaks May 2, 2008

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Jefferson and Harrison counties until 3:45 pm EDT.

Strong winds are the biggest concern.  We’ve had reports of heavy rain as well. Once this stuff moves through, we should quiet down for much of the night.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Churchill Downs

THE WARNINGS WERE CANCELLED AT 3:30 PM. NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE WAS REPORTED.