Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast From 4.30.09; Dodge Boys Wives Sell Company Just in Time April 30, 2009

 

SPC Outlook Fri AM to Sat AM (Derby Day)

 

SPC Severe Outlook Sat AM to Sun AM

Kentucky Derby Weather: (For the most recent update click here) On the one hand, my previous assessment that Wednesday would be generally dry for most people was pretty much on the mark.  The front sagged to the South.  There was rain to the South and scattered heavy downpours to the north but Louisville was in decent shape and Snow White and I had a good time watching the Great Steamboat Race.  There is an important change in the data though for Derby Day and handicappers need to keep an eye on this before wagering.  In fact, I would suggesting holding your bets until Saturday.   This forecast was put together based on data available late Wednesday night.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu Midday To Fri AM

Now, we still have a pretty healthy chance for rain on Thursday.  The front lifts back north as a warm front.   The temperatures aloft will again be relatively warm so lapse rates will be weak.  The jet streak across the area should also move out.  But, lower level winds may increase creating a forcing situation in which air is forced upward.  For that reason, the Storm Predicton Center has put us on the edge of the slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.   If we get storms, they would probably be independent guys and bring the potential for gusty winds.  The moisture in the atmosphere is through the roof so there would be the potential for heavy downpours.  Should one or two of these guys go supercellular, then there could be a risk for an isolated tornado.

Friday 8am

Friday, we have similar surrounding circumstances but this time we have a cold front approaching.  That guy should create enough lift to create line segments of thunderstorms, some of which could be rather strong.  For the Kentucky Oaks, it is entirely possible that there will be rain from time to time during the races with rain chances and the threat for strong storms near the end of the day.  If race goers are lucky, the front will be pokey enough that the storms would hold off until  after the Oaks race itself.

Sat 8AM (Derby Day)

Saturday is the biggest change.  It had been advertised as being dry on Saturday, squeezing a good day in between unsettled ones as the front slides south.  Well, the front still slides south but there a rather deep low up around the Great Lakes that will be wandering by and from that a trof may extend through the Ohio Valley.  That weakness in the atmosphere as it rolls through may create some shower activity.  Handicappers need to check the drying potential of the track.  I think they’ve done a pretty good job with drainage over the years.  Now, the weakness coming through does show up as rain showers off and on both the 18Z Wed GFS and NAM vertical profile based indecies.  But, since it’s post frontal, the deep and abundant moisture should be south and so I would not expect there to be heavy rain, just passing showers.  Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 60′s but I think that the biggest issue would be that, if the track is not dry from the Friday rain, then the passing showers would only aggravate the situtation.  If it does dry out, then I would think the conditions would be livable, unless your horse doesn’t like to run in the rain.  Guess here is that the track is taken care of such that it won’t be that wet regardless of the Thursday and Friday rain amounts and that the passing showers or light rain on Saturday will not aggravate the conditions much.  However, keep in mind…I don’t know much about horse racing.  Hold your bets to make sure that the front does indeed move through on Friday night.  I have not seen any data that would suggest otherwise.  Sunday rain chances increase again.

See the severe weather discussion below for Friday 8 am to Saturday 8 am from midday Thursday 4.30.09.

On This Date In History Lots of things happened on this date: Washington’s first inaugural address in 1789, Louisiana Purchase in 1803. Michael Jackson’s “Beat It” debuted in 1983 and then in 1997, Ellen “came out.” The last two go in the “who cares?” category as far as I’m concerned. I like this one in 1925.

John and Horace Dodge

Dodge Brothers, Inc. was sold on this date in 1925 to an investment group (Dillon, Reed and Co,) for $146 million and then they tossed in another $50 million for charitable purposes.  $196 million in 1925 would be nearly $2.4 billion in 2008! A! I like this one because it first shows us the derivation of the Dodge Boys. The commercials for Dodge used to say “come and see your local Dodge Boys.” I thought

Walter Built a Cool Building But Timing on Buying Dodge Not So Cool

that modern PC sensativities snuffed that and I always figured that the saying was just from some sexist ad man in the ’50′s. Now I think differently as I suspect the term came from the fact that there were two brothers…the Dodge boys. The Dodge boys died in 1920.  Horace Dodge passed away in January 1920 and John Dodge followed suit in December 1920.  They had never let any of their family members in on the business. In 1921 there had been a slight recession in the stock market. So, the widows of the Dodge Boys were defacto in charge of the company but really had no clue what they were doing and a few years later the 20′s were roaring again. Afraid of another market dip, the ladies decided to sell in the biggest corporarte sale to that time. I suspect that if you take inflation into account, it would still list as one of the biggest. It was a good move for Dodge Ladies too because just 4 years later, the stock market tanked and there is little doubt it took decades for the stock price to recover.  Walter Chrysler’s timing wasn’t so good.  A year before the bottom fell out of the market, he bought Dodge Brothers for $170 million.

I won’t talk too much about this date in 1945 when Hitler committed suicide except to point out some things that may have been missing in your history class. Just before he pulled the trigger, Hitler expelled Hermann Goering and Heinrich Himmler from the Nazi party for not carrying out some of his last, insane commands. That is why he named Admiral Karl Doenitz to take his place and it was Doenitz who ultimately surrendered for Germany. A book by a man named C.L. Sulzberger that I would describe as something for

Goebbels Family Before Dad had Them All Killed

public consumption and not necessarily an academic work nonetheless has an interesting observation. He described Eva Braun as “plump.” Never heard of that before. At 3:15 Eva took poison. At 3:30 Hitler shot himself.  Joseph Goebbels had an SS guy shoot he and his wife…not sure if the wife agreed with that…but, I bet shooting old Joe was an easy order to follow. Here’s what I don’t get…they got shot after they poisoned their six kids! What did they do except get born to a moronic man? And then Hitler made sure his favorite dog was poisoned before he killed himself. I guess he thought the dog might talk. This stuff is important only in that people need to know that there was nothing redeeming about these people or their ideas and they were totally warped in every sense. Kids need to know the totality of their insanity before anyone can come and convince them that there is anything admirable or enviable to emulate.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU….

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY…NEAR THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH…TO THE EAST OF A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY.  HOWEVER…A STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
WEAKENING…SPLITTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THIS STREAM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.  AT LEAST WEAK DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…THOUGH THIS MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOMEWHAT…ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…BY
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.  A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST…BEFORE SLOWING OR
STALLING NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE OHIO RIVER
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

…UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST…
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN IMPULSE…AND A REMNANT
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE…APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS…COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBLE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING
EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…SUGGESTS THAT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION WILL BE LOW…DESPITE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING.  FRONTAL FORCING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY…PARTICULARLY WHERE BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO THE LEE
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER…GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT…STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AT BEST.

…SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…
AS A GULF RETURN FLOW CONTINUES…DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TOWARD 70F…TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY MOVING OR STALLING SURFACE
FRONT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…BUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING.  LIFT NEAR THE DRY LINE/ FRONT
INTERSECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SEEMS TO
OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIATION OF LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS…CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR…GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE…STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG/ NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT…ON THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET…BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW…PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE
HAIL…PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS…MAY ACCOMPANY EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO  THE OZARKS.

..KERR.. 04/30/2009

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A New Phone, Big Election Win and New York Terrorist March 29, 2009

Accused Seems to Enjoy Being a Celebrity

Hold the Phone!

Hello? Son, is that You?

On This Date in History:
The telephone was invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 when he spilled acid on his trousers and shouted, “Watson, Come Here! I want you.”  Good thing for Al that Watson was able to hear him over the telephone.  Bell may never have known that his phone worked and he may have had even greater problems with acid in his pants.  President Rutherford B. Hayes had the first telephone installed in the White House in 1878 complete with a telephone switchboard.  For some reason, no one ever thought that it might be a good idea to have a phone put in the president’s office.  President Herbert Hoover apparently grew weary of having to go to the foyer outside of the Oval Office to use the phone.  So, on this date in 1929, he had one installed in his office.  Naturally, it didn’t work as Hoover grew incensed that his son was not able to get through to the Oval Office on an outside line.  See, the stock market had not crashed yet and so Herb had plenty of time on his hands.  I bet when the economy went south a year later he wished that he never had that phone put in. 

 

 

Another world leader was pleased on this date, and he should not have been surprised.  Eight

Goebbels Family...Not Exactly Ozzie and Harriet

months after the Treaty of Versailles was signed and World War I was officially brought to an end.  In pragmatic terms, the war was pretty much a stalemate.  But, with the Germans and Turks pretty much spent militarily and economically and America having joined up with the Allies, it was impossible for Germany and its allies to continue.  Not through military defeat, but instead due to a position of weakness,  the Germans were forced to sign an agreement that was grossly tilted against them.  This peace treaty ultimately sowed the seeds for World War II.  Part of the deal was for Germany to leave it’s extreme western portion bordering France, the Rhineland, to be absent of military presence.  On March 7, 1936 German Chancellor Adolph Hitler unilaterally cancelled the Treaty of Versailles and remilitarized the Rhineland.  The world was outraged…but did nothing.  To show the world that he had legitimate support from all of Germany, Hitler called for an election for a referendum on the remilitarization of the region.  On March 17, Hitler made a speech in which he said that he wished for peace to continue with France.   On this date in 1936, it was a fine spring day in Germany and an excellent time for an election.  Joseph Goebbels announced that the Nazis received 99% of the vote!  What a surprise!  Hey, maybe it was legit.  

Jesse Owens PO'd Hitler in 1936 a few months after the Nazi election "victory"

 I recall once in Louisville there was an election between political rivals, Charles D. Jacob and John G. Baxter.  That in itself was not unusual because the two squared off for the Louisville Mayor’s office several times.  Baxter was Mayor on two different occasions and I think Jacob got elected 5 times.  Anyway, Baxter was known for his political hijinx and had made a lot of enemies.  Once there was an assassination attempt made against him.  Perhaps the would-be assassin was reflecting public sentiment because Baxter went and lost an election to Jacob by getting only 100 out of 15,000 votes cast.  So, a near unanimous route is possible.  In this case, the Germans were very angry with the Treaty of Versailles and according to the Berlin Diary of correspondent William Shirer, the people of the Rhineland were overjoyed at the return of German troops to their region.   Shirer said that some correspondents reported some irregularlities but Shirer himself had no doubt that the overwhelming majority of Germans did, in fact, support the move into the Rhineland, whether they were a part of the Nazi Party or not.  If the vote indeed was a 99% win for the Nazis, it’s probably the only time that Joseph Goebbels had an honest press release.

The Mad Bomber?

And finally, we often think of terrorism as being something relatively new.  It’s not really.  It’s a tactic that is used by a group of people who do not have the means to face their opponent in a traditional military style.  The object of war is the conclusion of political aims and so is the same for most terrorists.  Some may consider some of the actions of the Sons of Liberty in colonial America to be terrorism.  And, in the first part of the 20th century through World War II, it was Jewish extremist groups that led numerous terror attacks against the ruling British in an effort to establish an independent Israel.  Now, while the Sons of Liberty may or may not have been terrorists, the legacy of domestic terrorism has continued from time to time.  Usually brought by nut cases.  Sometimes they get some infamous notoriety as the media likes to put name tags on them.  In the late 20th century there was the “Unibomber” but before that it was the “Mad Bomber” that terrorized New York. 

Ted Kaczynski "Unabomber"

In 1940, a pipe bomb was found at New York’s electric company, Con Edison.  The note attached said, “Con Edison Crooks, this is for you.”  More bombs were found in 1941, each more powerful than the previous one.  That is until the end of 1941.  Perhaps he was taking a page from the Sons of Liberty or maybe he was just patriotic but the bomber left a note that said he would not plant any more bombs until after the war was over.  I guess he wanted to wait until things settled down after the war because it was not until this date in 1950 that the Mad

Sons of Liberty Was a Rough Crowd

Bomber returned and set a bomb at Grand Central Station.  That one was disarmed but some of his other work went off in places like Radio City Music Hall, the Staten Island Ferry, Macy’s, the RCA building and again at Grand Central Station. 

The cops couldn’t track the guy down but an investigation by Con Edison found…you guessed it….the proverbial “disgruntled former employee.”  Seems that in 1931, George Peter Metesky had been injured on the job and Con Edison refused to pay for any medical benefits.  So, Metesky got sore and decided to start planting bombs.  Investigators found him living with his sister and in 1957 he was sent to a mental institution where he resided until his release in 1973.   Man, this guy sure could carry a grudge!  He was blowing stuff up over 20 years after he had felt shafted.  And to think, I always thought the Mad Bomber was Darryl Lamonica. 

Pretty Lousy Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  Tell you what, the data was really pretty good regarding the weather event of Saturday.   The dynamics were great but there wasn’t a whole lot else going for this stuff.  We had very strong winds aloft and also a good bit of veering of the winds.  But, we weren’t all that unstable to  help things out.  In the late afternoon we got to the low to mid 60′s which was sufficient to support big storms that got going to our southwest and produced big hail, high winds and a few tornadoes.  But, but the time it got to Louisville, the sun had been down for a few hours and so the instability was gone and we got thunderstorms and winds, but nothing really severe. 

The rest of the forecast looks on track through the weekend with a chilly and blustery day on Sunday with highs struggling to get to 50.  Back to the lower 60′s for early next week.

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Don’t Quote Me; Beware of Death Alley March 8, 2009

These Guys Were in For the Big Sleep In Kansas

 

 

Some Quotes to Consider:  Given today’s press corps reporting and also the politics of the day, I thought that I’d reveal some quotes.  You can tell me if you think that they have any application today.  After this date in history…I’ll tell you who is credited with the quotes.

“Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”

“Conservatives are not necessarily dumb, but most stupid people are conservatives.”

“It is the absolute right of the state  to supervise the formation of public opinion.”

“Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.”

“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly-it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.”

Youthful Emmet

On This Date in History:

Reformed Emmet

In 1871,  Emmet Dalton entered the world in the Oklahoma Territory. I’ve seen his name spelled with two “t’s” in some sources.   He had two older brothers.  In 1889, brothers Bob and Grat went to California to seek their fortune.  The determined the best line of work that they could find was to rob trains.  Emmet wanted to come along but they said he was too young.  So, while the brothers ran around California looking for trains to rob, Emmet met a girl named Julia Johnson and fell in love.  The older brothers returned  a few years later and decided Emmet had the maturity to ride with them.  Emmet left his girl behind, thinking he had nothing to offer her.  He also delivered the tough guy line that sounds like something Pee Wee Herman once said, ” I rode away, an outlaw has no business having a girl, no business thinking about marriage.”

Bob and Grat Don't Look So Good

So, the three brothers proceeded to wander around Oklahoma and Kansas with some other thugs and they became known as the Dalton Gang.  But, their reign of terror really didn’t last too long.   On October 5, 1892 the gang got a little greedy and perhaps a little cocky.  One bank wasn’t enough.  No…they tried to rob two banks at once in the middle of the day in Coffeyville, Kansas.  But, like the James Gang in Northfield, Minnesota the Daltons didn’t count on the folks of Coffeyville getting word of the daring raid.  They were ready.  When Bob and Emmet were gathering $21,000 in booty from one bank in their grain sacks, the people of Coffeyville surrounded the building.  When the pair emerged, they found a hail of bullets.  They escaped out the back door…so much for being surrounded…and they hooked up with Grat and the others, who had similarly been ambused at the other bank. 

Coffeyville The End For Dalton Gang

The gang ended up getting herded into what the citizens of the town came to call “death alley.”  With no where to go, the desperados were easy targets as the lead was flying.  Emmet had gotten on his horse and reached down to try and rescue the wounded Bob.  But, Emmet got hit by a shot to the hip and then buckshot to the back.  Four of the gangmembers, including Bob and Gath, died but Emmet survived.  He was later tried and convicted and was given a life sentence on this date in 1893.  But, in the penal system, life does not necessarily mean life.  Emmet served 14 years and was released on pardon as a reformed man!

Em Dalton with Tom Mix 1935

He got out of prison, married Julia Johnson, whom I figure must not have been much of a catch or her love for Emmet was true because she waited all of that time.  I guess robbing banks must be a qualification for business on a resume because Emmet became successful as a real estate agent.  Los Angeles was booming in the early part of the 20th century so he and Julia moved there.  He picked up extra money as a consultant for Hollywood movies, much like Wyatt Earp had done.  Emmet Dalton died in Los Angeles in 1937 at the age of 66. 

The quote master at the top of the page was Joseph Goebbels.

SPC Severe Outlook 8AM Sun to 8AM Mon

Weather Bottom Line: Forecast still looks basically on track.  We made it to 76 on Saturday with lots of sun for the first part of the day and high clouds in the afternoon.  It will still be breezy and mild on Sunday with highs in the low 70′s.  Late in the day, a front approaches and rain will be likely with thunderstorms possible.  Guess here is that, although we are in the SPC’s slight risk region for severe thunderstorms, the timing will be such that the storms will probably be on the downswing of life.  If they were to get here around 5 pm or so, then the chances of something worthwhile might be higher.  Worth watching but the later, the less the chance for the strongest storms.  Wind will probably be the main concern.  Discussion is below.

While the front moves through, the cold air behind it will get held up north by another system coming out of the west so we will cool off for the first two days of the week but not too bad…still above seasonal averages with highs in the 50′s and 60′s.  Mid week, a cold front comes through with a chance for rain or storms followed by chillier air for the last part of the week with a warming trend starting Saturday afternoon.

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
  
   VALID 081200Z – 091200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
   PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   PROGRESSIVE…SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING
   THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  THIS REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN INTENSIFYING
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND THE RESULTANT NEWD
   TRANSLATION OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
   FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
  
   IN THE LOW LEVELS…SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NERN MO WILL DEEPEN
   SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD INTO NRN IND BY SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON…BEFORE EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   SUNDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW.
   MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND
   TN VALLEYS.  SWRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SEWD INTO THE
   ARKLATEX BEFORE LIFTING NWD/NWWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATTER
   HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
   …OZARK PLATEAU INTO OH VALLEY…
  
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN
   ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM VICINITY OF
   SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SWRN MO AND
   PERHAPS NWRN AR.  EWD MIGRATION OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN SYSTEM WARM
   SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER
   60S.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERALL
   DESTABILIZATION…THOUGH THE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOME CLOUD
   BREAKS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG.
  
   THE INITIAL PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER AND IN THE LOW LEVELS/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF MO INTO NRN AR.
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
   INTO PARTS OF IL/IND BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.
   HERE…SIMULATED GOES WATER VAPOR DATA SUGGEST THAT MIDLEVEL DRY
   SLOT ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SURFACE TRIPLE
   POINT…POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
  
   THUS…EXPECT THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING
   STRUCTURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.  THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG COLD
   FRONT INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN…ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT
   FALLS ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD INTO THE UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY
   NIGHT…DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH TIME SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.
  
   …ARKLATEX…
  
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT ARE FORECAST
   TO WEAKEN SUNDAY WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYSTEM AWAY FROM
   THE REGION.  NONETHELESS…POTENTIALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING
   /COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NE/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED
   STORMS ALONG FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  GENERALLY WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY DESPITE LOWER TO
   MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.  THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE
   OFFSET BY MODESTLY STRONG /45-60 KT/ MIDLEVEL FLOW WHICH COULD
   ENHANCE ANY MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH SOME HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
  
   ..MEAD.. 03/07/2009