Sign From God Elects American President
February 9, 2010

Quincy Adams is Lucky Andy Didn't turn to the pistols to resolve the electoral college SNAFU in 1824

Quincy Adams is Lucky Andy Didn't turn to the pistols to resolve the electoral college SNAFU in 1824

On This Date in History: George W. Bush was not the first son of a president to become president. Benjamin Harrison was the grandson of William Henry Harrison but John Quincy Adams was the son of the second president, John Adams. But, like the election of GW Bush, the election of the first presidential son did not come without a hitch. In the case of GW Bush, we had Supreme Court intervention while John Quincy Adams looked even higher.

Close But Not Enough for Old Hickory

Close But Not Enough for Old Hickory

Adams did not have a majority of the electoral votes. In fact, Andrew Jackson had more of the popular vote and more electoral votes. But, neither man had a majority of the electoral college so the election went to the House of Representatives. How did that happen? Well, the two party system wasn’t too developed at that time and a whole bunch of people took the Republican mantra. Remember, this is way before the birth of the modern Republican Party just prior to the Civil War. In fact, a bunch of state legislatures disdained the slate of candidates and nominated favorite sons. At one point ,there were 17 candidates but by election day, the field had narrowed to four.

When a Win is Not A Win

When a Win is Not A Win

Jackson took the most votes in the popular election as the sitting Senator from Tennessee and war hero. His opponents said he was a hot head who was semi-literate who was good for a bar room fight but not fit for national office. Adams had the second most votes and was the sitting Secretary of State. He was quite qualified through experience and education, but was considered pretty bland and boring, lacking in any human warmth. The guy in third was William H. Crawford who had been treasury secretary and collected a bunch of political debts that were redeemed for support for the nation’s top office. He was so over-the-top with political appointments and trading that President James Monroe threatened him with a pair of fire tongs in a heated discussion on the subject. Kentucky’s Henry Clay was fourth but he was eliminated by the 12th Amendment that said only the top 3 vote getters could be considered.

Steve Could Say "no" to Dan and Hank, But Not God

Steve Could Say "no" to Dan and Hank, But Not God

On this date in 1824, the vote was to take place in the House and Adams figured he needed to win on the first ballot if he were to win because after that, Jackson’s popular support would wash over the decks. John Quincy was certain that he had locked up 12 states, which left him one short. But, New York stood tied. If he could take the New York delegation, then he would be the president. Apparently, Henry Clay was in the Adams camp because he counseled that an old and wealthy landholder who was a representative in the New York legislature was most likely to be swayed. His name was Stephen Van Rensselaer III and he was led to the chambers of the Speaker of the House where he felt the full force of persuasion than none other than Clay himself and Daniel Webster. Who could turn that down? Van Rensselaer that’s who. Guess he owed a lot to Crawford because thats whom he was supposedly backing. As it turns out, Webster and Clay had some effect because after they left, the old man bowed his head and prayer, asking for guidance. When he opened his eyes, the first thing he saw was a piece of paper with the name of John Quincy Adams. It was possibly a discarded ballot but Van Rensselaer accepted it as Divine intervention and while he could deny Webster and Clay, he could not deny the will of God. He took the slip of paper, put it in the ballot box and John Quincy Adams became the 6th President of the United States. While Bush the younger went on to win a second term, Adams the younger lost his re-election bid but went on to serve in the House of Representatives until 1848 when he was literally carried out of the legislative body after suffering a stroke on February 21.

NWS Louisville overnight forecast

By Early Tue AM 65.5% of nation under snow cover avg depth 8 inches

Weather Bottom Line:  I will bask in the glow of victory as a good bit of the area got 5-6 inches of snow with Louisville in the 6 inch range and some even greater totals. The guys who clear the snow from our place used leaf blowers and buried my front porch and our adopted cat, Paintbrush.  Hmmm… Snow White gave a gentle lecture at 6:30am so I decided that I needed to get my lazy self out of bed.  I cleaned off the car and the driveway and then we went on our winter walk.  We love walking in the snow.  I was surprised that the birds were chirping.  I thought for sure that they would stay silent wherever birds go when it snow.   A cold front will swing through in the late afternoon or early evening.  We can expect some more snow with that as it lifts up the air as it literally plows through.  If you think about it, a cold front kinda looks like a snow plow from a vertical profile perspective.  Probably less than an inch of additional snow.

             LOCATION………………………..SNOWFALL……..TOTAL ON
                                                                         THROUGH 1 PM     GROUND
                                                                                 (INCHES)        (INCHES)

LEXINGTON (OFFICIAL)                                           2.0               1
LOUISVILLE INTERNATIONAL (OFFICIAL)    6.3             7
LOUISVILLE NWS OFFICE                                        6.1             7
BOWLING GREEN (OFFICIAL)                                0.9             1

Pretty Common Across Area by Afternoon Tuesday

Now, I still do not see how we get above freezing anywhere soon. I know that the national forecasts advertise mid 30′s for Saturday and Sunday but I’ve noticed that they have been lowering the numbers closer and closer to freezing.  Anyway, if we do nudge above freezing anytime soon it won’t be for long or that much above freezing.  Overnight, the wind will pick up and the temps falling to the teens…only the teens because of the wind.  Wednesday perhaps some passing snow showers or flurries.  The wet roads may freeze in spots but it may not be all that bad because the wind will help evaporate that water but if it freezes before the wind can work on it, then there may be some issues. Keep that in mind when driving at night or the morning.  Thursday, we stay in the 20′s in the afternoon and if we get some clearing on Thursday night, which is possible, then those double digits lows you see on the national forecasts for our area will be way off the board.  Clear skies, thick snow cover, light winds…that sounds like zero or below zero to me.  Certainly single  digits.  From that point, it gets unclear.  I have some data saying that we get nothing as another storm system comes across similar to the last two with  a low to the south and one to the north.  Several models want to keep them separate and we stay in no man’s land.  But, the GFS has the northern branch diving down over us.  It wants to give us snow all weeked with a crescendo of 3 inches on Monday leaving us with a 3 day total of additional 5 inches.  No other model calls for this but, in some regards, it makes some sense.  We’ll see how it shakes out.  My guess is that the GFS is closer to what will happen than not..but its strictly a guess.  I still don’t see how we get above freezing for the rest of the week into early next week.  But, I’ve been wrong before…but not this time. I claim victory!!!

Electoral College Winner is Loser; Severe Threat?
February 9, 2009

Quincy Adams is Lucky Andy Didn't turn to the pistols to resolve the electoral college SNAFU in 1824

Quincy Adams is Lucky Andy Didn't turn to the pistols to resolve the electoral college SNAFU in 1824

 

On This Date in History:  George W. Bush was not the first son of a president to become president.  Benjamin Harrison was the grandson of William Henry Harrison but John Quincy Adams was the son of the second president, John Adams.  But, like the election of GW Bush, the election of the first presidential son did not come without a hitch.  In the case of GW Bush, we had Supreme Court intervention while John Quincy Adams looked even higher. 

When a Win is Not A Win

When a Win is Not A Win

Close But Not Enough for Old Hickory

Close But Not Enough for Old Hickory

Adams did not have a majority of the electoral votes. In fact, Andrew Jackson had more of the popular vote and more electoral votes.  But, neither man had a majority of the electoral college so the election went to the House of Representatives.  How did that happen?  Well, the two party system wasn’t too developed at that time and a whole bunch of people took the Republican mantra.  Remember, this is way before the birth of the modern Republican Party just prior to the Civil War.  In fact, a bunch of state legislatures disdained the slate of candidates and nominated favorite sons.  At one point ,there were 17 candidates but by election day, the field had narrowed to four.

Jackson took the most votes in the popular election as the sitting Senator from Tennessee and war hero.  His opponents said he was a hot head who was  semi-literate who was good for a bar room fight but not fit for national office.  Adams had the second most votes and was the sitting Secretary of State.  He was quite qualified through experience and education, but was considered pretty bland and boring, lacking in any human warmth.  The guy in third was William H. Crawford who had been treasury secretary and collected a bunch of political debts that were redeemed for support for the nation’s top office.  He was so over-the-top with political appointments and trading that President James Monroe threatened him with a pair of fire tongs in a heated discussion on the subject.  Kentucky’s Henry Clay was fourth but he was eliminated by the 12th Amendment that said only the top 3 vote getters could be considered. 

Steve Could Say "no" to Dan and Hank, But Not God

Steve Could Say "no" to Dan and Hank, But Not God

On this date in 1824, the vote was to take place in the House and Adams figured he needed to win on the first ballot if he were to win because after that, Jackson’s popular support would wash over the decks.  John Quincy was certain that he had locked up 12 states, which left him one short.  But, New York stood tied.  If he could take the New York delegation, then he would be the president.  Apparently, Henry Clay was in the Adams camp because he counseled that an old and wealthy landholder who was a representative in the New York legislature was most likely to be swayed.  His name was Stephen Van Rensselaer III and he was led to the chambers of the Speaker of the House where he felt the full force of persuasion than none other than Clay himself and Daniel Webster.  Who could turn that down?  Van Rensselaer that’s who.  Guess he owed a lot to Crawford because thats whom he was supposedly backing.  As it turns out, Webster and Clay had some effect because after they left, the old man bowed his head and prayer, asking for guidance.  When he opened his eyes, the first thing he saw was a piece of paper with the name of John Quincy Adams.  It was possibly a discarded ballot but Van Rensselaer accepted it as Divine intervention and while he could deny Webster and Clay, he could not deny the will of God.  He took the slip of paper, put it in the ballot box and John Quincy Adams became the 6th President of the United States.   While Bush the younger went on to win a second term, Adams the younger lost his re-election bid but went on to serve in the House of Representatives until 1848 when he was literally carried out of the legislative body after suffering a stroke on February 21.

 

Note the lack of CAPE on the NAM Wed Evening but elevated Helicity and SWEAT Index in our area

Note the lack of CAPE on the NAM Wed Evening but elevated Helicity and SWEAT Index in our area

SPC Severe Feb 10-11 7am-7am

SPC Severe Feb 10-11 7am-7am

Weather Bottom Line: 

The front on Sunday did not penetrate too far so the colder air never really got here even though our winds were out of the northwest.  So, it was a nice day.  Sue me.  Clouds will be on the increase as a low swings through the flow out of the Southwest and into the plains.  I would think that we’d see temps in the mid 60′s both Monday and Tuesday but clouds and rain chances may keep a lid on the mercury.  Rain chances will probably be in your local forecast, regardless of what channel you watch, from say Monday night through Wednesday night.  The question will be the biggest threat for t’storms and if we get strong storms or not.  The second storm system that swings around through the flow from the Southwest will be closer to us than the first one.  We will be relatively warm and humid and the wind profile may be decent.  Question is timing.  The NAM has the best dynamics on Wednesday evening.  The GFS has the best dynamics on Wednesday morning. 

SPC Severe Probability Feb 10-11 7am to 7am

SPC Severe Probability Feb 10-11 7am to 7am

Now, the GFS has a Sweat Index in excess of 500 and my observation over the years that, regardless of whatever the other indices say, a Sweat Index over 500 every time that I can recall results in something.  The NAM Sweat index is high but not as high as the GFS.  Both indicate a good bit of helicity as well but neither has much in the way of CAPE.  That is an index of potential energy and there just isnt much to write home about.  The early morning entry of the GFS has a timing issue as well but since we’re talking about wind dynamics with that, I suppose that is not as important.  Bottom line is we do no have a consensus.  The risk of severe weather is marginal at best though some pretty good rumblers with gusty winds are possible.  We’ll have to work out the timing difference later.  The temps following the storm will be chillier…closer to seasonable.  The GFS wants to toss out about a half inch of snow for next Saturday.

The boys at the Storms Prediction Center have picked up on this by kinda splitting the difference.  You can see they have the slight risk for Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning to our west but has the dreaded 5% chance for our area.  A broader, less specific area for “day 4″ is for Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.  So, they have their bases covered in case one or both of the model solutions is correct.  I’ve put their discussion that goes along with the “day 4″ map below:

Feb 11-12 7am to 7pm

Feb 11-12 7am to 7pm

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
  
   VALID 111200Z – 161200Z
  
   …SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
   APPALACHIANS THIS COMING WEDNESDAY…
  
   MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A REGIONAL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
   CARRY OVER INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A
   HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE…CHARACTERIZED BY MID 5OS SURFACE DEW POINTS…TO EXTEND
   AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE AT 12Z
   WEDNESDAY.  AND…THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
   MAINTAIN A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…PERHAPS AS
   FAR AS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS…AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
   DAY.  STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
   STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW /GREATER THAN 50 KT/ CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…EVEN IF THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES BECOME DECREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME MORE DISCRETE IN THE
   PRESENCE OF WEAKER MID-LEVEL FORCING/GREATER INHIBITION.
   BUT…PRE-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST.
  
   THEREAFTER…UPSTREAM WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PROMINENT BELT
   OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MAY SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS COMING WEEK INTO NEXT
   WEEKEND.  BUT…THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TOO LOW TO
   CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE ADDITIONAL AREAS…DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY
   LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL DATA AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.

A Presidential Duel and the Severe Outlook
May 30, 2008

Here’s the deal on the weather. There will probably be an outbreak of severe weather well to our northwest as an upper low pressure passes to our northwest and north. It will be weakening as well and any energy tailing down from the main center of vorticity would be coming around here late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Strong storms would not be initiated in our area but would have to hold together if we were to get anything. While conditions are somewhat better for such activity holding together than a couple of days ago, it is still not a given that any severe storms would have the ability to hold together when they move through. When the front slips through on Saturday afternoon, there are also limiting factors that would tend to downplay the risk. Nevertheless, the SPC has us in the slight risk area as of early Friday morning. The above map reflects that and I suspect their reasoning is more precautionary than ominous. I’ll update this later on Friday.  Bottom line is that Friday will be hot and humid with highs near 90 and if anything of consequence were to move in here, it would be late Friday night.  Here is the link to the SPC report.

 

Storm Prediction Center Report

 

 

>

On This Date In History: Our future president killed a man in a duel and he did so right here in Kentucky.  Now, Abraham Lincoln was known to be quite abrasive as a young man. His wit was used as a rapier and often really hacked his prey. On at least two occasions, he was challenged to a duel.  That is not the image that we have of Father Abraham.  Well, this isn’t about President Lincoln.  No, this is about “Old Hickory” whose reputation better suits the story. 

Andrew Jackson had developed a rough and tough reputation when he ran for President in 1824.  He handily won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote to John Quincy Adams.  The pair battled for the Presidency again in 1828 and Jackson won in spite of charges from the Adams camp that Jackson was an adulterer.  His wife, Rachel, had been married to some guy named Robards.  In 1790, the Kentucky legislature declared that Robards could sue for divorce.  Now, Jackson had been a practicing lawyer since 1787 but I think he could have used the help of a Heavy Hitter.  Jackson assumed that the legislature’s declaration was one of divorce. So, he married Rachel in 1791.  Robards finally got around to suing for divorce in 1793, citing Rachel’s adultery with Jackson.  The pair got remarried in 1794 but the damage had been done. 

In spite of the fact that the charge of adultery was technically correct, Old Hickory often too hum-bridge to anyone who questioned his wife’s honor.  It is said that the future President was involved in 103 duels with his actual participation in 14.  Of the 14, only one resulted with the death of one of Jackson’s opponents.  And he did it in Kentucky!!  On this date in 1806 near Harrison’s Mills, Kentucky in Logan county near the Red River, Andrew Jackson shot and killed Charles Dickinson.  The standoff came about because…you guessed it…Dickinson questioned Jackson’s wife’s honor.  You’d think that by that time people would have figured out that, when it came to Rachel, truth was not a defense and Andy was gonna get even. 

Dickinson was younger and a much better shot than Jackson.  He was called a snap shooter for his speed and accuracy.  Jackson knew this and had a risky strategy.  He would allow Dickinson to fire first!  When the pair stood apart at the traditional 24 feet, Dickinson wore a form fitting waist coat and trousers while Jackson had a loose fitting frock coat.  Dickinson fired and Jackson didn’t flinch.  Dickinson couldn’t believe that he missed.  Jackson took careful aim and his pistol got stuck in half cock. So, he tried again and this time he struck a fatal blow to his victim. 

Here’s the interesting part…Dickinson was not wrong.  He didn’t miss Andy.  The loose frock coat made the marksman unclear of his target but it was more luck or Divine intervention.  While Dickinson lay dying, Jackson’s second noticed blood on Old Hickory’s foot and asked if he had been hit.  Jackson replied, “Oh, I believe he has pinked me a little.”  Truth is, the bullet had broken some of Jackson’s ribs before it lodged so close to his heart that it was left there for the rest of his life.    But, Jackson was not about to let his victim know that he had hit his mark. Instead, he went to a nearby tavern and had a bottle of wine sent to his dying antagonist.    And it didn’t change the fact that for two years, Rachel Donelson had indeed been married to two men at the same time.  Imagine what would have happened had someone actually lied about Jackson’s wife!! 

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