Global Warming Goof: IPCC Can’t Verify Data? Herbert Hoover a Socialist? Ozone Hole Spin? Smoking Ban Lifted? November 17, 2008

00Z 1117 NAM 60 Hr. Wed AM Surface

Look for a front to move through on Monday. There may be some sunshine just after the front moves through but the clouds should return late Monday.  After a blustery and brisk Monday, a very isolated chance of a flurry but really the story is the mercury.  Tuesday morning mid to upper 20′s.  Tuesday afternoon probably not out of the 30′s despite sunshine.  Wednesday morning low to mid 20′s.  We don’t see any 50′s until next weekend.

IPCC Can’t Verify it’s Data? Back in July I posted articles that questioned the veracity of the research

What Happened To This Graph From the 1990 IPCC Report?

used by the United Nations and its International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  In that post (here) you find that there were many people who questioned the infamous “hockey stick” graph that showed a relatively steady temperature throughout the time frame until you get to the 20th century at which time temperatures go straight up.  I wondered about where the “mini-ice age” was from about 1350 to about 1850 and also the previous time from around 1000 to 1300 in which the Vikings were runnnig around Greenland raising crops and sheep.  As it turns out, more learned people than I asked the same question and the IPCC was forced to capitulate and admit that their hockey stick graph was false.  Now it seems that the data from at least one month was corrupted and after saying that October was the hottest on record, the IPCC has had to back track again and admit that their data was wrong.  In fact, circumstantial data so far indicates that October may be the exact opposite of the initial erroneous report.  Two aspects of this latest fiasco concerns me.  One is that the people in charge admit that they do “not have the resources

IPCC Has Revised Forecast Downward

to exercise quality control” over the data that it collects!!!  So, now we find out that the International Panel on Climate Change has no way to monitor the veracity of their data collection.  Yet, these are the people controlling the information that governments around the world are basing thier future policies and economies.  The other thing that troubles me is that THIS REPORT comes to my attention via the London Telegraph.  I can’t find any American media outlets that have brought this to the attention of the people of the United States.  Mr. Gore told us that the debate was over, yet he based his movie and this statement on a bunch of people who admit that the have no quality control over the data.  Doesn’t the American public have the right to know such reports and the explanation?  The IPCC reports were top of the newscast stories on the national networks…but this one gets buried.  Why do you think that is so?

Revised Ozone Report  If you recall, a few days ago I brought to you a report that said that the ozone hole was the 5th largest ever recorded.  I suppose others had a similar reaction to what I had which was that there was legislation that was supposed to cure the ozone hole and everything was fixed and we could feel safe.  Well, it looks like to me that someone high up the chain didn’t like the headline and ordered someone to make a revision because here is the new, revised report, that opens by saying that the US has reduced its ozone depleting substance production by over 97%!!!  Amazing how you can spin one story.  Here is the latest version.  Compare it with the old version which was just a few days old.

Herbert Hoover Bashing  In these economic times, we’ve heard that we face the worst crisis since Herbert Hoover.  In the 1992 election cycle we were told that it was the worst economy since Herbert

Misunderstood? A Socialist?

Hoover.  Of course, if a Democrat was in office during the election-time downturn, the cry would be that its the worst economy since Jimmy Carter.  Anyway, this past election we heard charges of socialism.  Did you know that in the 1932 one of the candidates was charged with having socialistic policies because of his desire for government intervention in the economy?  It’s true and the charge was made against Herbert Hoover by Franklin Roosevelt.  We have always been taught in school that Hoover just sat back and wanted to let the market place take care of the problem.  In truth, Hoover was seen as an interventionist because of all of the pumping of governmental dollars into the system.  After he lost the election, Franklin Roosevelt did the same thing but on an even grander scale.  There are historians who, in this time of Hoover bashing, want to give the reputation of Herbie a makeover.  Here is the story from the Wall Street Journal that appeared in the election day edition.  It accurately points out that Hoover was a man of many great accomplishments before and after his term in office…it’s just that things didn’t go so well during that one term and that has been his legacy. And that’s a shame because he was in many regards a great man.

Fire It Up!

Smoke’em If You Gottem:  And finally, again from our friends at the London Daily Telegraph…seems that several months ago a smoking ban was put into effect on the casinos at Atlantic City.  Casino owners argued that business would suffer because other casinos in the country didn’t have smoking bans.  Business would suffer, they said. The Atlantic City city council said nonsense.  Now that revenues are down at area casinos, and therefore tax revenues, the city council apparently agrees with the casino owners because the smoking ban has been lifted.(video story)  Light’em up and head to Atlantic City!

Global Climate Update and Global Warming Odds and Ends; Cooler Air Set To Move Into Ohio Valley September 30, 2008

Polar Bear Practicing In Case Forecast Was True

The forecast is pretty much on track. Front comes through on Tuesday. Late Monday night with some rain showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder but, generally, not much to write home about. Perhaps a quarter of an inch or so…its the first general rain we’ve had for some time and anything you get will be welcome and the last real chance for some time to come. The only real changes are that we feel like that an upper level disturbance rotating around the main storm center will bring some clouds on Wednesday and the clouds on Tuesday will erode in the afternoon before we get some cloud cover back on Wednesday with perhaps some light showers. Otherwise, we will go from above average temperatures to well below seasonal averages for the balance of the week before we warm up into the weekend.

August 2008 Climate Map

Global Warming Odds and Ends: Here are some items that I have been storing up for a day when it was rather boring in the weather department and boring on the history front. First is the global climate conditions for July. It was one of the rare occurences in many months that the global temperatures have been warmer than the 20 year average. Note that June was globally cooler than average and that La Nina was reported to have been waning. Here is a post regarding previous months. Here’s the July report:

UAH July

Here’s the August preliminary global climate report. August was slightly colder globally. There was almost an equal split between the northern and southern hemispheres.

UAH August Global Climate Report

Arctic Ice Began Growing Again 09.12.08

If you recall, at the beginning of the summer, we had all sorts of articles warning of the polar ice caps melting away and the risk of Santa Claus having his home end up in the frigid ocean waters. We had visions of polar bears swimming endlessly. At the time, I pointed out that the writers trumpeted a headline that suggested such doom. Yet, if you read down many paragraphs into the article, then you find that the probability of the headline becoming fact was not as high as suggested. In fact, the amount of sea-ice was actually a little greater than at the same time the previous year. Late this summer, I found a similar article. This one said that the sea ice at the poles were the second smallest in recorded history, which goes back to those ancient days of 1979. That is one way to look at it. Another way to look at it was that the amount of sea ice had grown over the previous summer and then asked the open-ended question as to whether this was a trend or an anomaly. They could have had the headline “Arctic Sea Ice Increases by 9 Percent” Or they could have said “Arctic Sea Ice increases to 1.7 million square miles!” But no…instead it says that this years sea ice came close to the lowest total ever.

In any event, THIS ARTICLE shows a far cry from the fear of Santa swimming with his reindeer and certainly indicates a bit of editorializing on the part of the headline writer, if not the AP writer, who seems to be nameless.

IPCC Hockey Stick vs True Graph

Much has been made about the IPCC report and it is being used as gospel regarding the last word on Global Warming. Mr. Gore has suggested it means that the debate is over. However, I have been reading many articles by learned folks who take issue with the IPCC Report. One of the things that they question is the Hockey Stick Graph (see previous post), which the IPCC subsequently admitted was not correct and quietly changed it to something that at least is closer to what the data suggested, which was a big warm up back in the times of the Vikings living in Greenland. Also, it reflected somewhat the time that is commonly known as the mini-ice age which was partly resposible for the immigration of Europeans to North America.

Another problem is that they have with report is that they used work by people who did not go through peer-review. Typically, before data can be used as evidence in an academic work, it must go through a review process by other academians to test the views presented. Most of the time, the citations would have been previously published after which they would have gone through more peer review. Apparently, much of the key parts of the IPCC report did not go through the process. Further, the guys who were drawing the conclusions were also some of the same guys who wrote the evidence that was never reviewed by anyone. You might call that a stacked deck.

Here is a letter from members of the US House of Representatives questioning the IPCC Methodology and asking for explanations. Congressional Letter to IPCC Chairman Dr. Rajendra Pachauri asking for some explanation.

If that is not enough….

Here is a letter from scholars asking the same chairman, Dr. Pachauri, to “admit that there is no observational evidence in measured data going back 22,000 years or even millions of years that CO2 levels (whether from man or nature) have driven or are driving world temperatures.” Pretty tough.

Here is the letter calling on the IPCC to make yet another admission of error.

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Now. earlier this year the head of the Associated Press, Ron Fournier, said he wanted the writers to abandon the just-the-facts approach to writing news and instead encouraged first person accounts and to include the writer’s personal emotions.(Here’s a related opinion piece) In my journalism class, that would have gotten an “F”. Where are you Griff Singer when we need you? I’ve noticed a whole lot of editorializing of late, even more than usual, especially in the area of headlines and how stories are written. This is very true with the reporting of Global Warming. I’ve cited another example here on this post. I would also suggest that the open letters that I’ve included here questioning the IPCC report may have been reported, but were probably buried whereas the actual IPCC report was brought out at the top of newspapers and tv broadcasts. Yes, people have questioned the report that Mr. Gore claims is settled science, but not too many people know that its been questioned or by whom. I wonder how many people know that the infamous hockey stick graph was quietly replaced after enough people complained of its inaccuracy? I wonder how many Americans would be on board the current climate bandwagon if Mr. Gore’s movie had revealed that data that may not have been reviewed and that those writing the conclusions were the same people who wrote the non-reviewed data were the very same people? All I am advocating is pure, straight truth. I question whether or not that is possible to achieve when those orchestrating the report is a necessarily political body such as the United Nations. This subject needs to be put solely into the academic arena and out of the hands of politicians, or politician turned film-makers.