Tropical Storm Kyle’s Troubles; Uncle Tom’s Misrepresentation; Super Collider’s Demise? September 27, 2008

Hurricane Ike Turned This Fishing Boat Into the SS Minnow

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

for updates on hurricane kyle, CLICK HERE and scroll to most recent heading of Hurricane Kyle

The area of low pressure followed the forecast and moved inland and is now to our east-southeast. Light showers have largely been confined to the east and southeast of Louisville and have been largely insignificant. This trend will continue. See, moisture being tapped in the Atlantic has a tough time getting over the Appallacian Mountains. Anyway, the weekend looks good for activities with cool nights and warm afternoons, though not hot like we saw earlier in the week. The big chilldown is still in the cards for the early to mid part of next week. The transition in the first part of the week may provide a much better chance for area rain.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 2115Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0926 5PM

Tropical Storm Kyle: Kyle continues to have problems. The tropical storm is stiil

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0926 18Z

in the grips of upper level winds that have messed it up. The visible satellite image shows clearly that the left side of the storm is devoid of convection and even largely absent of clouds. If it had come off of the Dominican Republic sooner then it may have not faced such a hostile environment. So, it’s Kyle’s own fault that it’s having such a tough time. The vertical structure is skewed to the northeast and, until or if it can stack itself up properly, it’s not going become a hurricane. As it moves even with the area of low pressure, formerly Invest 94, that is in the Eastern US, then the upper shears will give it an opportunity to get itself righted and perhaps become a hurricane. That’s what the forecast calls for. But, I’m not so sure its going to have enough time. While the forward speed forecast has been slowed a bit, its still going to be moving at a pretty good clip and as quickly as it moves into a good environment it will move back into one that is not so forgiving. About a third of the models want to make it a hurricane with a couple even up to Cat 2. The ultimate track continues to depend on the ridge in the Atlantic. If it’s fat enough and strong enough, then Kyle could threaten New England. But most of the guidance and the official forecast keeps it just off the main coast and moves it into Nova Scotia. This scenario would bring rough seas and surf to New England but the storm itself would largely be Canada’s problem. Look to the bottom for the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion and the Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z.

Big Bang or Big Bust?

Super Collider in Super Trouble? The Large Hadron Collider that brought fears of the world’s demise getting swallowed up into a self-induced black hole is in a bit of a pickle. I know of people who prayed that if the start-up of the device was not part of God’s plan to not let it go forth. Well, US Grant had a pet phrase, “man proposes, God disposes.” Perhaps that holds true. At least it is true for the near term as the very large and complicated machine has a major glitch. An electrical connection failed and caused a section of the magnets associated with the accelerator to fail. Early reports were that the big electron race track would be out of commission for two months. Now, some reports push the start up back to next year. The bigger they come, the harder they fall and the more complicated the machine, the greater the risk of failures. So, if you were waiting for the end of the world, you’ll have to wait a bit longer. Here’s the story.

On This Date in History: On this date in 1852, the first successful stage dramatization of Harriet Beecher Stowe’s Uncle Tom’s Cabin took place in Troy, NY. The key word here is “successful.” Stowe herself had tried to bring the novel to the stage but it failed. How could that be? The book sold over 300,000 copies in the first year. Well, if you have read the novel, then you know that it was a huge attack on the slave culture. President Lincoln, upon meeting Stowe said, “so this is the little woman who made this big war.” Obviously that was a bit of an overstatement and unfair to put that war on her head. But, it did play a role. While she had only seen one plantation, Stowe went to former slave Frederick Douglass for help in detailing slave life. Stowe was inspired by the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850 that allowed for slaves who had escaped to non-slave states in the north to be returned to slavery. Hers was the first glimpse of what slave life was really like. It brought to the attention of northerners of the brutality of many plantations and the inhuman condition brought to the slaves. This stands in sharp contrast to modern ideas.

Often in popular culture you hear the phrase “I’m no Uncle Tom” or a reference to someone as “an Uncle Tom” in derisive terms alluding to someone who knuckles under and does the white man’s bidding. But, the character of Uncle Tom in Stowe’s novel was anything but the modern vision. He was a strong figure described by many reviewers as a “Christlike figure” who was actually killed by his owner, Simon LeGree. So, how did we get such a different, opposite view of Uncle Tom? I am speculating here but I suspect that the reason Stowe’s version of Uncle Tom failed is because it followed her novel. Uncle Tom was portrayed as the strong, proud man that she had created. But the versions of the book that came to stage, and later film, that were successful presented a Tom who was a shuffling, subservient old man. My guess is that audiences, even those who opposed slavery, did not want to see a strong black man opposing and standing up to authority. That feeling remained prevalent well into the early 20th century and thus, films followed the same recipe. So, when someone is called an “Uncle Tom” it should signify characterstics of strength of characater, integrity and self-worth. Instead, due to stage and film adaptations, being called an “Uncle Tom” holds an extremely negative connotation.

It’s a shame because the novel held such significance. Stowe was attacked in print and vilified by the pro-slavery crowd and received “mountains of threatening mail.” One package was sent to her containing the severed ear of a slave! But, it’s nothing new. Today films that are supposedly based on history are often fudged, altered and fictionalized. There are other movies that make one think that they are historical when, in fact, they are largely nonsense. Do not depend on popular culture, films, TV or even the internet for your history. Read published works instead. Go to the primary source. The sad story of the evolution of Uncle Tom is a great example of how popular culture can distort or even destroy the truth.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON…WITH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB…AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB…WITH SFMR WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING…KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS 345/11…BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH. KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER…IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF ANYTHING…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING KYLE FROM THE EAST…WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS…THE SHIPS…HWRF…AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME…KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION…AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.6N 68.7W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W 55 KT

24HR VT 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W 65 KT

72HR VT 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W 35 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Kyle Has No Head; Invest 94 is Onshore September 26, 2008

0926 NAM 850mb 12 hr

Here is a story regarding the area of low pressure that moved into the Carolina coasts. I told you yesterday that the storm was affecting the coast with some pretty good winds. There have been power outages, trees down and that sort of thing. I also stated my opinion that it really wasn’t tropical but that I had guessed that sometimes they seem to give storms that will affect the public adversely a name and call it sub-tropical just to alert the public of a concern. People tend to take more notice of storms with a name than not. But, I’ve been saying for some time that the storm was a cold core, meaning that the temperatures were falling with height like a run of the mill low pressure and not getting warmer like a tropical low. In THIS STORY, the guy from the NWS in Raleigh claims that “this was very close to a tropical system.” I disagree. If you look at the 850 mb map to the left, you can clearly see the difference between a tropical and non-tropical system. Granted this is a 12 hour forecast graphic from the 12Z NAM. If you look at the red lines, they indicate cooling temperatures going into the center of the inland low down to 12 C. Conversely, if you look to the right of that feature at Kyle, then you see rising contours to 18C at the center of Kyle. The onshore storm was not close to being tropical. To me, even on satellite, it didn’t look tropical. I think that the boys at the NHC just couldn’t bring themselves to give it a name given that they had so little to hang their hats on regarding the tropical definition.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 1515Z

Tropical Storm Kyle forecast track 0926 11AM

Now, Tropical Storm Kyle, is a different story. It has all of the tropical

Tropical Storm Kyle spaghetti Model 0926 12Z

characteristics but its got its own trouble. Winds aloft are knocking off its hat. The upper winds from the west or southwest from around the inland low is not allowing for a concentric storm. The storms and convection are to the right of the center. But, as Kyle moves north, it will have an opportunity to get its head straight and gain strength. It will squeeze through the low to the west and a building ridge in the Atlantic and get shot like a watermelon seed to the north. I suspect initially that it is being drawn a little west as it wants to go toward the low but the flow is more north. As was the key with Hurricane Ike, the high will determine if it hits the Northeast US or not. If the ridge builds sufficiently, then it gets shoved farther west. If it weakens a bit as is forecast, then the storm goes into Nova Scotia. A couple of things work against the New England scenario is that the westerlies at that latitude is pretty significant as well as corioliis parameters. Nevertheless, it is close enough that northeast interests should keep tabs on Kyle

Here is the Tropical Storm Kyle National Hurricane Center Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 12Z

KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT…WHILE RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11…SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION…AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. HOWEVER…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO…BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE STRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE…BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER 48 HR…KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY COLD WATER. WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN…IT MAY STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE MARITIMES. AFTER LANDFALL…KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL…EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 26.4N 68.8W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.6N 69.4W 55 KT

24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.7N 69.9W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 69.8W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.7W 70 KT

72HR VT 29/1200Z 46.5N 66.0W 50 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 30/1200Z 52.0N 62.0W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Kyle; Daniel Boone Dead From Indigestion Without a Coonskin Hat September 26, 2008

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

Invest 94 IR Satellite 0926 0245Z

If you look to the left you will see what has been dubbed Invest 94. I kept telling you that the models were advertising that the air aloft was a bit chilly, which indicated that it was a cold core low. But, that was computers talking. I had thought that perhaps the boys at the National Hurricane Center would call it a subtropical storm and give it a name. It was kicking up pretty good winds and sometimes I wonder if when a storm is not really tropical but is affecting a lot of people as it moves ashore, then they go ahead and give it a name just to alert the public to its whereabouts. I’m sure that comment will not be greeted warmly by the boys at the NHC. I admit, its a guess and I may be wrong. Anyway, you can see from the satellite that it is a more classic comma shape. It will pass to the east of Louisville and the rain threat is minimal. If you get a light shower Friday evening, it won’t do much good. I think the big news is that a strong front appears to be on its way for early to mid week and will not only bring a chance for rain but also decidedly Fall-like air. The weekend looks good with clouds decreasing Saturday. Sunday looks good.

Tropical Storm Kyle IR Satellite 0926 0245Z

Tropical Storm Kyle: The news here is that the storm finally got away from the

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0925 11PM

Dominican Republic and was designated as a tropical storm shortly thereafter. Now, it dawdled so much that the upper winds that had been favorable are not so good right now. But, as Invest 94 moves inland and Kyle moves northward, it will open up an opportunity for the winds to relax a bit. Now, Kyle will be zipping right along and the forecast track has it moving into the Canadian Maritimes in a few days. The inland low will tag along behind and bring rain to the northeast. There is a big fat ridge in the North Atlantic that won’t allow it to turn right as it would like to do due to the coriolis force. It would be tough for the storm to veer more to the left and affect the US coast. It would be a stretch for the ridge to be that strong to overcome the coriolis parameters but its not totally out of the question. The official forecast and a few of the spaghetti models do make Kyle a hurricane. Look to the bottom of the post for a look at the Tropical Storm Kyle National Hurricane Center Discussion.

Ole Dan'l Didn't Have a Coonskin Cap

On This Date In History: Daniel Boone died in 1820. He didn’t get attacked by Indians, he didn’t get eaten by a bear and he didn’t die in Kentucky. He simply died quietly at the age of 86. The cause? He reportedly died of eating too many sweet potatoes and died of indigestion. Today we have the credit

Fess Parker's Fraudulent Portrayal of Boone

crisis affecting real estate owners. In Boone’s day, you had to have a proper claim and it seems ole Dan’l didn’t have the proper papers for his land holdings in Kentucky. Because he failed to register his land properly, he lost his land in Kentucky and I suppose that included Boonesboro. Dan may have been gone but they kept the name. Boone in 1799 went west and settled in Missouri at the tender age of 65. He spent his final years hunting and trapping. Later, Fess Parker portrayed Boone in a TV series in the late 60′s. In the series, Parker wore a coonskin cap and there was even a reference to that in the theme song. Trouble was that Boone never wore a coonskin cap. He preferred a broad brimmed beaver hat. Guess Parker had the coonskin cap left over from his previous TV series in which he portrayed Davy Crockett. Kept the Boone series budget costs low. Honestly, I couldn’t tell the difference between Parker’s Crockett and Parker’s Boone as he was one of those guys who acted the same way in all of his roles. But, I must say I think Parker looks more like a Boone than Boone did. There is a statue of Boone, not Parker, near Cherokee Park.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0926 00Z

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT…BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO HIGH. IN ADDITION…A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 00Z

NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO…DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM…HWRF…FSU SUPERENSEMBLE…AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER…THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5…THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. IN ADDITION…PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.8N 68.0W 45 KT

12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W 50 KT

24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W 60 KT

36HR VT 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W 70 KT

72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W 60 KT…INLAND…NOVA SCOTIA

96HR VT 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$FORECASTER BERG

Home Sweet Home? Stay Off The Phone and Stand By Your Man! September 25, 2008

No Place Like Home?

Here is a whole mess of photos of people returning to Galveston Texas following about 10 days of exile after Hurricane Ike. (CLICK HERE) For a large number of Hurricane Ike Damage Photos and video from Galveston, Bolivar Peninsula, Houston and Louisville, CLICK HERE

Not Feeling Well After Long Sculling Expedition

Snow White and I did a very long row Wednesday evening. My hands ache, ankles, wrists and backside hurt. While the weather was great, suddenly everyone else found out the river was it was great too after two days of secrecy. Sailboats were everywhere and there were lots of pleasure boats and runabouts. Then there were two barges. Pretty rough out there but we persevered for several miles. One thing about sculling on the river is that once you’re up river, you can’t just stop because your hands hurt or you are tired. You have no choice but to keep going until you get back.

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

Thursday will be another good day though clouds will increase. The area of low

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

pressure that I’ve been talking about off the SE Coast got a bit deeper on Wednesday and is trying to take on tropical characteristics. This has gotten the attention of the National Hurricane Center as winds offshore have been up into Tropical Storm force with gusts along the coast of some 35-45 mph. From the models, it appears that the 850 temps will remain rather chilly so it will probably be something of a cold core low with some other

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

tropical features. I wouldn’t be surprised if they label it a sub-tropical storm and issue advisories accordingly. It is now called Invest 94.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

This development really doesn’t affect our forecast much. This guy in whatever form it is will come inland and stay to our Southeast and East. We will get an increase in clouds on Friday with perhaps a light largely insignificant shower or two. It looks to us as if the clouds will stick around for much of Saturday. So, we probably won’t get out of the 70′s for Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be improved with warmer conditions but not as hot as we’ve seen. Then there is some indication that a good cold front comes down for the early to middle part of next week, though we are mulling some of the data which tries to make it pretty cool but we have to consider that we are in a transition in seasons and the models sometimes act goofy. So, we’ll see how it shakes out. Invest 93 is very much up in the air as to whether it develops or not.

Stay Off The Phone...You can Live Without It

Foolishness

Text Message Fiasco: One thing that I didn’t mention but have before is my disdain for the jetskis. Either the guys riding them don’t pay attention, don’t care or deliberately make a nuisance of themselves. Well, another thing that I don’t care for is cell phones. I told Snow White that I had gone well over 40 years without a cell phone and I didn’t need one but if she could find one for $10 a month I’d get one. She found one for $9.95. So now I have a cell phone and i don’t like it when people call because it uses up my minutes. And most of the time it’s to tell me something that could have waited. Most of the time they are driving. I see more people tootling around in their cars talking on the phone and paying attention to the road as much as jetskiers pay attention to the river. Now, we have the new craze..text messaging. This is even more annoying. I’ve seen people having little secret conversations at their work with other people in the building. They sit there and giggle like school kids in the back of the classroom. When you text message, your concentration is taken away from whatever it is you supposed to be doing…like paying attention. Just the other day, a teenager was killed when he was struck by a car. Witnesses say the kid walked right in front of a vehicle….never looking up to see where he was going…because he was concentrating on his text message.

Here’s the Story of the kid killed while text messaging in Florida.

Caused By Text Messaging Engineer?

I’m not sure why a teenager needs a cell phone. It seems like it creates more problems than it solves. But, I have to admit I can see where a kid would like to text message. But I fail to see how an adult would like to text message. I don’t get the face book stuff for adults either…especially those over 25. But, in another recent tragedy, not only was an apparent text messenger killed but more than two dozen also lost their lives. The investigation is continuing but the apparent operating hypothesis of why a Los Angeles area commuter train blew through red lights and then head on into a freight train was because the engineer was text

messaging with a couple of teenagers.

Here is the story of the NTSB investigation into the text messaging activity of an on-duty engineer.

Caused By Cell Phone Using Truck Driver?

If all of that is not enough, here is the story of a truck driver who was on his cell phone earlier this week in Florida. He was looking at his phone then looked up to see a school bus. He hit it without stopping. Bus and truck caught fire, killing a 13 year old girl.

While I’m in a grumpy mood….how about this unbelievable story…

There’s this national televangelist in Georgia. Her husband’s name is Bishop

Marry Tom on a Game Show?

Thomas Weeks III. He recently got divorced. His wife filed for divorce because the preacher was accused of choking his then wife, Juanita Bynum. He was also accused of pushing her and stomping on her in a parking lot and of making terroristic threats. He pleaded guilty to the aggravated assault charge and completed his sentence of community service. Okay…sad story….unusual in that you wouldn’t expect that from a pastor but then again, we’ve heard a lot of stuff about ministers on TV over the years. Here is the kicker….Now ladies…you too can be the bride of Bishop Weeks! I mean, after the above advertisement, why not? Perhaps you can get your boxing license at the same time! All you have to do is appear on the new reality show called “Who Will be the Next Mrs Weeks?!” This search by Weeks will be for wife number 3. Perhaps contestants should consult with wives number 1 and two before going on the air. I mean, from what we know, if this show is truly reality then perhaps it should have a rating like they do in movies.

Joe, Remember Herbie?

Senator Joe Biden Needs to Read This Date in History! You probably heard this but Senator Biden explained to Katie Couric (See Video Clip) how that after the stock market crash in 1929, Franklin Roosevelt went on TV and leveled with the American people. Uh…Senator Biden…Television was not introduced to the public until 1939 and really didn’t find its way into homes until well after the second world war. Oh..and one other thing. Franklin Roosevelt was not president until 1933. Herbert Hoover was president in 1929. What Biden didn’t say was that FDR whacked on Hoover even after he had won the election. Ask yourself this. If Gov. Palin or Sen. McCain had said this, would the press pretty much ignore it or call it a gaffe? Or would they suggest that Palin didn’t know anything or McCain was too old? Be honest.

Today’s This Date in History: If you don’t know the story of Benedict Arnold, he was a very good General for the colonists. In fact, he was one of General Washington’s favorites. He got involved in an act of treason involving an attempt to turn over West Point to the British. You can read all about Benedict Arnold by reading THIS BIOGRAPHY. What you won’t read about are the details regarding his wife.

Showed General Washington the Goods

Arnold married a then 18 year old Peggy Shippen in 1779. Her family is suspected of being British sympathizers. She had been a big part of the social scene in Philadelphia and had a boyfriend named John Andre who was also a British officer. Just so happens that the go-between for Arnold and the British was none other than Andre, who was captured with the whole plot stuffed in his sock. Peggy also corresponded with her old flame, assisting in the negotiations. Arnold escaped but Andre was hanged 8 days later. When the plot was revealed to General Washington, he just happened to be expecting to visit the Arnolds. He found the general gone and Peggy put on a show. She went off like a raving lunatic using wild gestures. One historian also reports that during her performance, her clothes separated in such a way as to “reveal charms that should have been hidden.” Naturally, Washington fell for the scam and declared the woman innocent. Alexander Hamilton knew Shippen and supported Washington’s assessment saying that Shippen had sweetness and beauty with “all the loveliness of innocence.”

In the end, the Arnolds lived in England on a pension but Benedict was largely shunned since most Brits weren’t too keen on anyone who was a traitor, even if their side was the beneficiary. Somehow I suspect that his wife found a way to return to the social scene.