Invest 93 or Tropical Storm Paloma? Lincoln’s Catch of the Day? Quote of the Voting Day? November 5, 2008

for a more recent update on Tropical Depression 17 that will probably become Tropical Storm Paloma or possibly Hurricane Paloma, CLICK HERE

Great Quote From a Great American: The old sage, transplanted Kentuckian to Texas Mike Weaver offered me this observation from voting day in Tejas. It’s something I wanted to share with you.

“I walked right in, nobody suicide bombed me, nobody tried to snipe at me, or coerced me, or had a thing to say, nice and peaceful. I could have early voted, or mailed it in, but I wanted to go to the polling station today, stand in line, (only 3 deep at 11:20) and do this on ELECTION day.

My forefathers fought and died for this right, so me taking a few minutes of time and few gallons of gas is a incredibly small price to pay for the privilege. I wish they were here to see it all and for me to say thanks, but they are not. How many hundreds of thousands died for the privilege of our sovereignty!

So today I cast my vote not for me but for those Vets, and for the others who can’t vote… like my two boys. God HAS blessed America.”

NAM SFC 1108 00Z

Our Weather and Another Tropical System? After the past few days, some of you may have thought that fall and winter were over with. Nope. Front is still on schedule with rain late Thursday night into Friday morning. Cooler air is lagging behind but expect below average temperatures for the weekend. If you notice the map above, it is the surface map from the NAM at 00Z Saturday 110808. That is Friday evening. Two things to notice. You see green to our east in a line. That is the front that will have passed through. You see green to our northwest. That is rain to our northwest and is indicative of wrap around clouds. As mentioned previously, we’ll probably see some clearing late Friday with clouds moving back in for Saturday. The sun will break out to some degree again on Sunday but it will still be rather cool. Okay…all of that is something that probably doesn’t surprise you.

Invest 93L IR Satellite 1104 2145Z

But take a look at the lower right corner of the map. See that blob of green there?

Invest 93L Spaghetti Model 1104 18Z

By that time we may be looking at least at Tropical Depression 17 and possibly the long awaited Tropical Storm Paloma. I kept waiting on Paloma a few weeks ago and was stood up. Right now, it’s just called Invest 93 like a woman in a bar through the eyes of a man drinking heavily, its getting better looking with time. Seriously, it is looking a bit better organized. It is drifting NNW. Now, the reason why I posted the 84 hour NAM surface is to illustrate the frontal boundary that will be to our east. The trof associated with that feature will probably be far enough south to perhaps pick up the system as coriolis parameters and

Invest 93L Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1104 18Z

weak steering currents move it toward the grips of the trof. A number of the computers on the spaghetti model does exactly that. Given the slow movement of the system in relation to the oncoming front, this scenario would probably take the storm east of Florida. But, it’s not totally out of the question that it might move across a portion of the peninsula. However, if the trof does not pick it up, then it probably just stays put in the NW Caribbean. 11 models make it a tropical storm, one makes it a hurricane and 3 keep it below the Tropical Storm threshold. It’s worth watch. Hurricane season does not end until November 30.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1842, Abraham Lincoln married Mary Todd. She was considered

28 Year Old Mary Todd

quite a catch in her day. I don’t think they had a “catch and release” program back then.

She actually is a rather interesting figure and there have been several biographies about her and numerous…hundreds…..written about Lincoln which delve into their relationship, how it affected his presidency. Its probably a good idea to read several to get some sort

Mary Todd at 43...Didn't Age A Bit!

of perspective because each author will come at it from different perspectives and sometimes with a preconceived agenda or notion of what they want to say. Jean Baker has one of the more recent biographies of Mary Todd and it paints a very sympathetic portrait by often using late 20th century sensibilities and transporting them back to the 19th century. If you look closely, you find that Professor Baker received funding from the Elizabeth Connolly Todd Foundation. Like I said, biographers look at subjects from different perspectives and different photos…the one adorning the Baker portrait of Todd is not the same presented above.

On this date in 1965, speedster Craig Breedlove’s wife, Lee Ann, tried to steal his thunder when she became the first woman to drive more than 300 mph on the Bonneville Salt Flats. I’m not sure if Craig got mad, but he certainly made sure he shared the spotlight. Just few hours later, Craig Breedlove got in his car and shattered his land speed record by reaching over 555 mph in his Spirit of America jet powered car. I don’t have a photo of Lee Ann.

Home Sweet Home? Stay Off The Phone and Stand By Your Man! September 25, 2008

No Place Like Home?

Here is a whole mess of photos of people returning to Galveston Texas following about 10 days of exile after Hurricane Ike. (CLICK HERE) For a large number of Hurricane Ike Damage Photos and video from Galveston, Bolivar Peninsula, Houston and Louisville, CLICK HERE

Not Feeling Well After Long Sculling Expedition

Snow White and I did a very long row Wednesday evening. My hands ache, ankles, wrists and backside hurt. While the weather was great, suddenly everyone else found out the river was it was great too after two days of secrecy. Sailboats were everywhere and there were lots of pleasure boats and runabouts. Then there were two barges. Pretty rough out there but we persevered for several miles. One thing about sculling on the river is that once you’re up river, you can’t just stop because your hands hurt or you are tired. You have no choice but to keep going until you get back.

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

Thursday will be another good day though clouds will increase. The area of low

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

pressure that I’ve been talking about off the SE Coast got a bit deeper on Wednesday and is trying to take on tropical characteristics. This has gotten the attention of the National Hurricane Center as winds offshore have been up into Tropical Storm force with gusts along the coast of some 35-45 mph. From the models, it appears that the 850 temps will remain rather chilly so it will probably be something of a cold core low with some other

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

tropical features. I wouldn’t be surprised if they label it a sub-tropical storm and issue advisories accordingly. It is now called Invest 94.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

This development really doesn’t affect our forecast much. This guy in whatever form it is will come inland and stay to our Southeast and East. We will get an increase in clouds on Friday with perhaps a light largely insignificant shower or two. It looks to us as if the clouds will stick around for much of Saturday. So, we probably won’t get out of the 70′s for Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be improved with warmer conditions but not as hot as we’ve seen. Then there is some indication that a good cold front comes down for the early to middle part of next week, though we are mulling some of the data which tries to make it pretty cool but we have to consider that we are in a transition in seasons and the models sometimes act goofy. So, we’ll see how it shakes out. Invest 93 is very much up in the air as to whether it develops or not.

Stay Off The Phone...You can Live Without It

Foolishness

Text Message Fiasco: One thing that I didn’t mention but have before is my disdain for the jetskis. Either the guys riding them don’t pay attention, don’t care or deliberately make a nuisance of themselves. Well, another thing that I don’t care for is cell phones. I told Snow White that I had gone well over 40 years without a cell phone and I didn’t need one but if she could find one for $10 a month I’d get one. She found one for $9.95. So now I have a cell phone and i don’t like it when people call because it uses up my minutes. And most of the time it’s to tell me something that could have waited. Most of the time they are driving. I see more people tootling around in their cars talking on the phone and paying attention to the road as much as jetskiers pay attention to the river. Now, we have the new craze..text messaging. This is even more annoying. I’ve seen people having little secret conversations at their work with other people in the building. They sit there and giggle like school kids in the back of the classroom. When you text message, your concentration is taken away from whatever it is you supposed to be doing…like paying attention. Just the other day, a teenager was killed when he was struck by a car. Witnesses say the kid walked right in front of a vehicle….never looking up to see where he was going…because he was concentrating on his text message.

Here’s the Story of the kid killed while text messaging in Florida.

Caused By Text Messaging Engineer?

I’m not sure why a teenager needs a cell phone. It seems like it creates more problems than it solves. But, I have to admit I can see where a kid would like to text message. But I fail to see how an adult would like to text message. I don’t get the face book stuff for adults either…especially those over 25. But, in another recent tragedy, not only was an apparent text messenger killed but more than two dozen also lost their lives. The investigation is continuing but the apparent operating hypothesis of why a Los Angeles area commuter train blew through red lights and then head on into a freight train was because the engineer was text

messaging with a couple of teenagers.

Here is the story of the NTSB investigation into the text messaging activity of an on-duty engineer.

Caused By Cell Phone Using Truck Driver?

If all of that is not enough, here is the story of a truck driver who was on his cell phone earlier this week in Florida. He was looking at his phone then looked up to see a school bus. He hit it without stopping. Bus and truck caught fire, killing a 13 year old girl.

While I’m in a grumpy mood….how about this unbelievable story…

There’s this national televangelist in Georgia. Her husband’s name is Bishop

Marry Tom on a Game Show?

Thomas Weeks III. He recently got divorced. His wife filed for divorce because the preacher was accused of choking his then wife, Juanita Bynum. He was also accused of pushing her and stomping on her in a parking lot and of making terroristic threats. He pleaded guilty to the aggravated assault charge and completed his sentence of community service. Okay…sad story….unusual in that you wouldn’t expect that from a pastor but then again, we’ve heard a lot of stuff about ministers on TV over the years. Here is the kicker….Now ladies…you too can be the bride of Bishop Weeks! I mean, after the above advertisement, why not? Perhaps you can get your boxing license at the same time! All you have to do is appear on the new reality show called “Who Will be the Next Mrs Weeks?!” This search by Weeks will be for wife number 3. Perhaps contestants should consult with wives number 1 and two before going on the air. I mean, from what we know, if this show is truly reality then perhaps it should have a rating like they do in movies.

Joe, Remember Herbie?

Senator Joe Biden Needs to Read This Date in History! You probably heard this but Senator Biden explained to Katie Couric (See Video Clip) how that after the stock market crash in 1929, Franklin Roosevelt went on TV and leveled with the American people. Uh…Senator Biden…Television was not introduced to the public until 1939 and really didn’t find its way into homes until well after the second world war. Oh..and one other thing. Franklin Roosevelt was not president until 1933. Herbert Hoover was president in 1929. What Biden didn’t say was that FDR whacked on Hoover even after he had won the election. Ask yourself this. If Gov. Palin or Sen. McCain had said this, would the press pretty much ignore it or call it a gaffe? Or would they suggest that Palin didn’t know anything or McCain was too old? Be honest.

Today’s This Date in History: If you don’t know the story of Benedict Arnold, he was a very good General for the colonists. In fact, he was one of General Washington’s favorites. He got involved in an act of treason involving an attempt to turn over West Point to the British. You can read all about Benedict Arnold by reading THIS BIOGRAPHY. What you won’t read about are the details regarding his wife.

Showed General Washington the Goods

Arnold married a then 18 year old Peggy Shippen in 1779. Her family is suspected of being British sympathizers. She had been a big part of the social scene in Philadelphia and had a boyfriend named John Andre who was also a British officer. Just so happens that the go-between for Arnold and the British was none other than Andre, who was captured with the whole plot stuffed in his sock. Peggy also corresponded with her old flame, assisting in the negotiations. Arnold escaped but Andre was hanged 8 days later. When the plot was revealed to General Washington, he just happened to be expecting to visit the Arnolds. He found the general gone and Peggy put on a show. She went off like a raving lunatic using wild gestures. One historian also reports that during her performance, her clothes separated in such a way as to “reveal charms that should have been hidden.” Naturally, Washington fell for the scam and declared the woman innocent. Alexander Hamilton knew Shippen and supported Washington’s assessment saying that Shippen had sweetness and beauty with “all the loveliness of innocence.”

In the end, the Arnolds lived in England on a pension but Benedict was largely shunned since most Brits weren’t too keen on anyone who was a traitor, even if their side was the beneficiary. Somehow I suspect that his wife found a way to return to the social scene.

Galveston Has A Long Road To Recovery From Hurricane Ike; We’ll Wait a Long Time For Decent Rain; Woman Doesn’t Wait Long to See Husband Shot Down September 24, 2008

Seabrook, TX Folks Try Sympathy Plea With Low-Life Looters

if you’re looking for hurricane ike damage photos and video, CLICK HERE...then scroll down through the blog entries and you’ll find lots of links from around the country. some of the slide shows get updated regularly.

The upper low that I was speaking of the last few days is still expected to behave the same way…move into the SE and come close enough to Louisville to bring clouds and cool down the temperatures. The only difference is that now we have knuckled under and put some showers in the forecast for the first part of the weekend. They will be scattered in nature and largely insignificant. Don’t build and ark just yet. The NAM spits out less than a tenth of an inch and the Tue 12Z GFS had nothing but it was trending toward enough moisture moving in to warrant the slight change. The GFS is advertising a sharp cool down in the middle of next week but hey…it’s a week away and it is the GFS and we are in the middle of a season change so the long term models sometimes want to run home to their climate mommas, thus messing things up down the road. We’ll wait and see. Possible? yes…but don’t stock up on the firewood just yet.

Sept 1900 Memorialized On Galveston

Hurricane Ike is one guest to Galveston that no one will forget. I’ll tell a not so secret secret. Galvestonians have a code name to distinguish the genuine item from an import. It’s BOI…as in BEE-OH-EYE. It stands for “Born on the Island.” I think Houston Astros pitcher Brandon Backe is a BOI. Anyway, after Ike moved ashore, Galveston has been pretty much closed. That is part of the reason so many people didn’t leave. They didn’t want to wait for days or even weeks to return to their homes. So, people are being let back on the Island soon. But listen to this quote of what they can expect:

Officials said today that returning residents should prepare to be utterly self-reliant, bringing their own food, water and gasoline. They described the opposite of a sentimental journey: residents will encounter mosquitoes, rats and snakes; traffic could be chaotic and back up for hours on I-45 and water will not be drinkable for months.

Makes everyone want to return home, right? What I didn’t include was that people on the west end of Galveston are still allowed to visit their homes (though many of those are vacation homes) on a “look and leave” basis and those on the east side of the entrance to Galveston Bay on Bolivar Peninsula have no home to look at so they have no choice but to leave. Here is the full story from the Houston Chronicle and another from the New York Times on Galveston’s clean up. Here is a link to the NYTimes slide show that accompanies the story.

On This Date In History: This date in 1861 was not a good day for flying. At 3:30 AM on April 20, 1861 Thaddeus S C Lowe decided it was a good time to test his new 20,000 cubic foot balloon called Enterprise. I’m not sure if the balloon was shown in the Star Trek movie that showed all of the previous vessels called Enterprise. I don’t think that I recall that being the case. Anyway, he takes off from Cincinnati before the sun comes up and his little test mission turned into a misadventure. He got whisked away by 100 mph winds aloft that sent him to South Carolina. He thought he’d get welcomed like a crowned prince like the Wizard of Oz. Instead he was arrested as a spy. Apparently the professor was absent minded as he had no clue that 6 days before Fort Sumnter had fallen and the Civil War had begun. Fellow academics convinced the state authorities that Lowe was on a scientific mission and they let him go.

I’m not sure if Lowe was ticked at being arrested or if his buddies were

Lowe

wrong because Lowe promptly went north and became the leader of the Union’s Army of the Potomac Aeronautic Corps of balloonists. Lowe designed and built several balloons for a whole Union fleet with the largest being the 32,000 cubic foot Intrepid that required 1200 yards of silk. This was a group of mainly civilians who made some 3000 flights in the first two years of the war. They would tether up and view the battlefield from aloft and then use a telegraph to wire down the enemy position and direct artillery fire. It was the forerunner to aerial reconnaissance. In fact, later in WWI, the airplane was used initially for that purpose until it was discovered you could drop bombs from planes or put machine guns on the plane and shoot down enemy planes and blimps. Anyway, on this date in 1861 Lowe himself was shot down. Somehow he ended up behind enemy lines. I don’t know if he got caught up in another 100 mph wind or enemy fire cut his tether or if he was just going on another “scientific excursion” but down he went and he was captured again. His wife Leontine was a witness to the whole thing. Did she sit and cry? Did she hope that academics would again get her husband set free? Nope. Instead, she personally led a raid of nighttime commandos who moved in and rescued the professor.

Before the war, Lowe had established a reputation for new theories and study in Chemistry, Meteorology and Aviation. He had a dream of a transatlantic balloon flight. I guess he got rich because after the war, he moved to Pasadena, CA and built a 24,000 foot house. He established a railroad to Mount Wilson and tinkered in all sorts of things. They’ve named a Mountain for him and the Lowe Observatory among other things. Funny thing is the guy ended up living with his daughter in her Pasadena home as he lost his fortune. Makes you wonder if now California will rename its mountains something like Mount AIG or Mount Lehman Brothers.

Invest 93 IR 0924 315Z

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0924 00Z

Invest 93: This guy at times has looked good on the satellite but it still has not been determined to have enough of a closed low to make it a depression. The image above shows some promise but doesn’t look as good as some of the stuff I saw during Tuesday. The spaghetti models all want to make it a tropical storm but fewer like the hurricane status. Tracks are similar with several still threatening New England. But, if this guy doesn’t get off the island soon, it may have some trouble. Several of the models we use for our daily forecast are less enthusiastic about its development but its something to watch due to a possible threat to the northeast. Here’s what the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday evening…which is almost identical to what they said for the past 2 days.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0924 00Z

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO… 1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS AND COULD SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION…AND SINCE THAT TIME…ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER…CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…HAITI…THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/RHOME

Fall Is Here? Is Kyle Lurking? Let’s Rodeo! New Hurricane Ike Damage Photos September 23, 2008

Fall began at 11:44:18 AM EDT on Monday. When I brought this bit of information to Young Mr. Lincoln, aka Matt Milosevich, he pondered aloud whether or not there was some guy at the equator measuring the sun’s angle to determine exactly at which second the Autumnal Equinox was upon us. That question is beyond my paygrade but let’s just accept that Fall has begun. But, one thing I do know is that it is utter nonsense that it’s easier to stand an egg on its end on the spring or autumn equinox. Typically, its foolish TV weather guys who try to push this off as fact when it is just a myth. Here’s a guy from a “bad astronomy” website that explains fully and even shows photos with dates to prove it. So, if you hear your local(or national) weatherman try to push this on you, I would question his credibility because if he’s so foolish as to fall for this one, then who knows what else is roaming around his head. Nevertheless, You’d never know it was

You can do this any time of year

Fall in Louisville where the mercury will be pushing toward 90 for the next couple of days. However, it’s not a summer-like 90 because the air is so doggone dry. With dewpoints in the 50′s, our lows will be in the upper 50′s to near 60. Snow White and I had a lovely row up the Ohio River on Monday evening, though I had to keep a sharp eye on a wayward jet ski guy who I thought may swamp my bride. Punk. I also have to water Kelsaroo the Hydrangia who is drooping again. I’ll be watering every night because rain chances are slim this week. There is an area of low pressure that is advertised to wander into the SE states but at this point, it only looks like it will bring some clouds late in the week and no rain. Oh…check this video out…this guy is the oldest American and he celebrated his 112th birthday. He looks like he could give me a challenge in a row on the river.

Hurricane Ike Photos: I found some more Hurricane Ike damage photos courtesy of KRIV in Houston. It’s a new batch and are rather interesting as they show some different looks than we’ve seen before. Here is the link to the KRIV Hurricane Ike Damage Photos. For a look at a whole bunch of other Hurricane Ike Damage photos and video from Texas and Louisville , CLICK HERE and scroll down through numerous posts.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0922 18Z

Invest 93: If you take the Invest 93 18Z Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph as

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0922 18Z

Gospel, then we will have Kyle in relatively short order. 11 of the models make it a hurricane and the rest make it a Tropical Storm. If it does develop, then it will be Kyle. My guess is that it will at least be a depression and most of the models that we use in our forecasting does develop it quite nicely. The general direction of the mean track from the spaghetti model is toward New England. To find out about the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 which struck in late September of that year, CLICK HERE. My encouraging you to check it out is not a forecast of a repeat performance, but just a reminder that big storms can and have hit New England late in the season and it had nothing to do with Global Warming. Remember, a hurricane’s role in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. It’s not the hurricane’s fault people built houses in its path. In fact, here is an article that talks about another new study about tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Global Warming. It says the opposite of what many have been saying in the media and rightly concludes that this study will not be the final word. While the increase in tropical cyclone activity was forecast years ago to increase for about 30 years from 1995 to 2025 due to natural cycles has come about, keep in mind that other parts of the world have seen a decrease in activity. Also, the first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in 1969 so the study of tropical cyclones in the modern sense has not really been going on for all that long. There is much to be learned.

All Because of the Lowly Potato

On This Date in History: Colonel E. A. Slack was the publisher of Wyoming’s Daily Sun-Leader, the predecessor to today’s Wyoming Tribune-Eagle . Slack was not feeling too chipper as he made his way back to Cheyenne from Greeley, Colorado where that town held its Potato Day Festival. He wondered why in the wide wide world of sports that Cheyenne couldn’t do something to celebrate its heritage. Around the same time, railroad agent F.W. Angier was watching cowboys go through their work and thought it would make a great show.

Dan Quayles Nemesis Was Cheyenne's Hero

The two somehow put their heads together and combined their thoughts. Slack used his influence to get the fine folks of Cheyenne to pony up $562 to support the worlds first professional rodeo on this date in 1897. People came from as far away as Denver to see cowboys compete in events that simply mimicked the very thing they did every day for a living. Of the 11 events held that day, 5 are still part of a typical modern day rodeo. But the awarding of prizes has evolved a little differently. See, originally the guy who was the best bronc rider won $25. The horse that judges determined was the meanest and bucked the best was also given a prize. The owner of the baddest bronc received $100…Four times as much as the guy who took the beating the best!

Today, the Cheyenne Frontier Days festival is a huge event and continues….but I think the meanest horse just gets a big bag of oats and a reprieve from the Glue Factory. And it’s all because a newspaperman was jealous of Mr. Potato Head.

Something of Interest in the Tropics; Yanks Take Ryder Cup; Current Financial Situation Not Unprecedented September 22, 2008

Gotta Like A camouflage wearing Guy Named Boo Signaling for a First Down on the Links

for hurricane ike damage photos and video, CLICK HERE and scroll down. Many of the slideshows update daily.

Last Friday, Snow White and I went on an excursion to Springfield, KY just because our power was still out (we got it back Sat. Night@8:49 pm…nearly a week after we lost it) and we both had the idea at the same time. So, we blew off our sculling expedition for the day and tootled down the road listening to my Sirius radio. As I heard updates on the Ryder Cup, it occurred to me that the US team would win simply because everyone said that they would lose and because of guys like Boo Weekley, JB Holmes, Anthony Kim and Kenny Perry as well as the other names not at the tip of the tongue of most casual golf fans. I had thought that perhaps if they lost, it would be because one of the stars failed miserably. Well, I’ll take credit for my fearless forecast and you can get a little local perspective by linking to THIS WEBSITE FOR A LOUISVILLE VIEW OF THE RYDER CUP WEEKEND. Its not something that you will find on most national websites.

If you didn’t get any rain this weekend, and you probably didn’t, then you are out of luck for much of the week ahead. At the end of the week, there is some indication that an area of low pressure will move into the SE from the Atlantic. At this time, it does not appear to be tropical in nature but its not totally unreasonable to think that could change. More significantly, many models show it moving onshore and continuing inland. At this time, it does not appear that it would get close enough to us to bring rain though some of the data try to bring it close enough that perhaps we can hold out some hope…not enough to put in the forecast…but something to consider as the week progresses. There is another system, currently called Invest 93.

Invest93 Spaghetti Model 0921 18Z

Invest 93: There was some indication through the weekend that the tropical

Invest93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0921 18Z

disturbance south of Puerto Rico could develop into a depression. Well, when the boys with the Hurricane Hunters flew out for a looksee, it was over Puerto Rico. Land, aerial and satellite observations suggest that winds may indeed be around depression level but that the circulation is not defined enough to warrant it being classified as a depression. However, the spaghetti models all indicate a track with a northerly component that would take the storm back over the water. The bad news is that 10 of the models make it a hurricane. The good news is that most do not take it to the East Coast…though if the current tracks hold…and they’ll probably change…then New England may be a concern.

Can it Happen Again?

One must consider that On This Date in History, Sept 22, 1938 New England and specifically Long Island were reeling from the Great New England Hurricane aka The Long Island Express which was a hurricane that came off of Africa wandered through the Bahamas and then north…the forecasters of the day thought it would turn out to sea. Most of the time at that far north latitude the coriolis force turns storms to the right. But…there was a big fat high in the Atlantic that would not allow such a turn. It did aid in the acceleration so the result was that Long Island got nailed by a Category 3 hurricane moving at 70 mph. 600 people in New England died. (here is more on the Long Island Express in 1938) Now, I am in no way suggesting that this guy will be a repeat or even that it will indeed even be a hurricane. What I am suggesting is that it has happened before and it had nothing to do with Global Warming. Just like it is tenuous at best for anyone, regardless of their expert credentials, to claim that Katrina had anything to do with Global Warming. Funny how when people try to make that claim they neglect to mention Hurricane Camille in 1969.

Speaking of things that have happened before…On This Date in 1907…The United States was in the midst of an economic crisis. At that time, there was no central bank or Federal Reserve. There had been some doofus who tried to corner the copper market and when that failed, all of the banks who made loans to back the scheme were in trouble. They started calling other loans. People lost confidence in the banks as several failed. A bailout was needed. At the time, President Theodore Roosevelt was claiming that everything was in great shape and was threatening a federal takeover of all trusts. Who comes to the rescue but J. Pierpont Morgan. He got together with his banking brethren and convinced them that they needed to work together to salvage the system in order to save all of their hides and the future of the nation. He also convinced the Secretary of the Treasury to pony up $25 million to the effort. The recession did not turn into a depression and the event led directly to the eventual establishment of the Federal Reserve. While the numbers are not as large…not the $700 billion to $1.2 Trillion being tossed around this time, the other numbers are not as large either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39%. We recently lost and gained less than one percent and politicians are running around trying to make comparisons to the Great Depression. In order to equal the fall of the 1907 panic, then a Dow of 11,400 would have to fall to 7000. So, while this is serious and potentially catastrophic and far reaching, the solution is not totally unprecedented. It’s just that before it was JP Morgan engineering a bailout with some government help and this time its the Federal Reserve and Uncle Sam engineering a bailout with some other private help. When you hear also of rumors that today’s problem was a plot by those who stand to profit, keep in mind that in 1907 it was rumored that the banks had caused the whole panic just to line their pockets.

Sometimes, news people say they need to give commentary to “give perspective” or a particular news event. Dan Rather used to defend journalists providing analysis instead of just reporting for that specific reason. Yet, it helps if those giving “analysis and perspective” had some perspective in the first place.

Here are some more articles relating to JP Morgan and the panic of 1907.

JP Morgan-Savior-The Panic of 1907

JP Morgan

Bear Stearns Bailout as it relates to JP Morgan in 1907 Panic

Panic of 1907