for a more recent update on what was once hurricane paloma, including a news story, video and photos from Cuba, CLICK HERE
Paloma: As expected, Hurricane Paloma is getting the hell kicked out of it. You can say that because most people say that strong hurricanes are a “living hell” and this is no longer the case with Paloma. As I have explained several time, the very thing that enhanced Paloma is now killing it. Strong westerly winds aloft that helped vent the storm are now situated such that it is blasting apart the upper support…its hat or head, if you will. Every tropical cyclone has an upper level anti-cyclone. Without the anti-cyclone, the surface low is just that, a surface low. So, the upper level hat is getting sheared to bits and the low level circulation is getting ripped up as it remains over Cuba. In short, Paloma will be dead soon. Very interesting how in 96 hours it will have gone from about 50 mph to nearly 150 mph and back to nothing.
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION…IT IS DIFFICULT TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. CAMAGUEY…WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER…IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OUR BEST GUESS AT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL…USING THE GFS WIND FORECAST…INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.
PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED A
BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM…IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS…BY WHICH TIME THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE WE BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST….THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS…PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 21.2N 77.9W 50 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.5W 35 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 76.8W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1200Z…DISSIPATED
$$ FORECASTER PASCH