Hurricane Paloma Now Tropical Storm Paloma Soon to Be Dead November 9, 2008

Paloma 1109 IR Satellite Image 1715Z

 for a more recent update on what was once hurricane paloma, including a news story, video and photos from Cuba, CLICK HERE

TS Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1109 10AM EST

Paloma: As expected, Hurricane Paloma is getting the hell kicked out of it. You can say that because most people say that strong hurricanes are a “living hell” and this is no longer the case with Paloma. As I have explained several time, the very thing that enhanced Paloma is now killing it. Strong westerly winds aloft that helped vent the storm are now situated such that it is blasting apart the upper support…its hat or head, if you will. Every tropical cyclone has an upper level anti-cyclone. Without the anti-cyclone, the surface low is just that, a surface low. So, the upper level hat is getting sheared to bits and the low level circulation is getting ripped up as it remains over Cuba. In short, Paloma will be dead soon. Very interesting how in 96 hours it will have gone from about 50 mph to nearly 150 mph and back to nothing.

TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

TS Paloma Spaghetti Model 1109 12Z

PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION…IT IS DIFFICULT TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. CAMAGUEY…WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER…IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OUR BEST GUESS AT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL…USING THE GFS WIND FORECAST…INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED A

TS Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1109 12Z

BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM…IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS…BY WHICH TIME THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE WE BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST….THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS…PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 21.2N 77.9W 50 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.5W 35 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 30 KT

36HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 76.8W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 13/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Paloma Attacking Communist Cuba; Did UFO Cause Great Northeast Blackout? November 9, 2008

for a more recent update on former hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE

Chilly, Crummy Day: As expected, clouds will wrap around and provide a cloudy day. Okay, I said that a few days ago but I was off one day. Clouds will dominate on Sunday and we will be hard pressed to get out of the 40′s. Sunshine is back on Monday with a bit of a moderation into the low 50′s. Boundary returns late Tuesday with clouds increasing and a few light afternoon showers will turn to general rainfall Wednesday into early Thursday. Friday we are a few degrees warmer than average with a cold front poised to move through Friday night.

Who Turned out the Lights? On this date in 1965, the lights went out in the Northeast. Biggest power

UFO selective in turning off the power?

outage in US history. It’s cause was found to be from a relay station at Niagara Falls. Here is a history of the 1965 blackout that was particularly difficult since it began during rush hour in New York. I remember my father being stuck in the RCA building in New York and the lights being out at home. The moon was huge and we sent my sister out to investigate what that large object was…we weren’t so sure it was a moon. Maybe it was a UFO because, according to some conspiracy theorists, the big power outage in 1965 was caused by a UFO. Here is the UFO angle. Never mind that it happened again in 2003 and never mind that it is acknowledged that our electric grid is antiquated and susceptable to catastrophic, large scale failure. No…it was an UFO. Just analyze these UFO reports from Nov 9, 1965 yourself!

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite Image 1109 0015Z

Hurricane Paloma: HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 620 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 AT APPROXIMATELY 620 PM EST…2320 UTC…HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES SATELLITE DATA AND A RECENT POSITION FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT…PLUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA…INDICATE THAT MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA LIKELY MADE LANDFALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 MPH…200 KM/HR. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1108 7PM EST

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1108 18Z

Hurricane Paloma had topped out at about 145 mph Saturday afternoon but was in

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1108 18Z

the process of backing off as it approached land. The pressure had risen to 952 mb. That tells me that the strong upper winds to the north was beginning to interact with the storm such that, instead of enhancing the storm, it was beginning to mess it up. You can see the result of the upper winds quite clearly on the satellite image by comparing the northern half of the storm to the southern half. This stong upper level westerly wind will continue as Paloma moves over the eastern third of Cuba. So, the upper part of the storm will get ripped to shreds by the shearing environment and the low level circulation gets torn up by the land of Cuba with some pretty significant mountains. In short, Paloma is behaving as previously outlined and all indications are that it will continue to do so. If not, my guess is that it gets ripped up, loses its head and its leftover then either drifts east or disappears. This guy is sorta similar to Charlie in that it has a very compact windfield…the strongest winds were pretty ferocious but the radius of the hurricane winds were maybe 25 miles. Unlike Ike, which had a core of winds that weren’t all that strong but had a huge area of some 250 to 300 mile radius of hurricane winds.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING… THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT…SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT…AND A RISING MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY… BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP…THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH…HOWEVER…IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND. THIS WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS…WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO…BUT HIGHER THAN…THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON…BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PALOMA MAY START TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST…BUT STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.5N 78.5W 125 KT

12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W 85 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W 60 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W 40 KT

48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W 30 KT…DISSIPATING

72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 13/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Paloma is a Big Bopper…For Now November 8, 2008

Hurricane Paloma Visible Satellite 1108 1545Z

for a more recent update on hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Paloma is tied for the 2nd strongest November Atlantic Hurricane. How does a hurricane get

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite 1108 1545Z

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1108 10AM EST

140 mph winds in November? Same as any other time of year. How did it increase in intensity so quickly? It is not just the warm water, but more importantly the upper winds. The same thing that will eventually kill Paloma is the same thing that gave it muscle. There is a streak of very strong upper level winds generally from west to east along Cuba. That is great for enhancing the anti-cyclonic outflow aloft which in turn vents the storm and helps lower the pressure. You can see quite clearly on the IR Satellite that the outflow is developed much better on the northern half of the storm than the southern half. I had been thinking that this guy would move farther east than forecast and the storm has moved more east and the official forecast has been adjusted eastward. What giveth taketh away. As the storm moves into the flow of the upper winds, then those winds, instead of aiding in the upper flow, will instead rip the storm apart as it moves into the eastern third of Cuba. The front moving through the east coast of the US will not dig far enough south to really pick it up but will be significant enough to draw it more north.

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1108 12Z

So, this guy will get ripped to shreds over Cuba. The low level circulation will get disrupted by the mountains of eastern Cuba and the upper support will get ripped up by the westerly strong winds. As it emerges north of Cuba in the Bahamas, the ridge building into the eastern United States behind the front will start to drive the storm back west…BUT…the upper winds will remain very strong toward the east. So, Paloma will lose its head…the upper winds will separate the upper support from the low level circulation. The result is that, instead of a strong hurricane, you get a run of the mill surface low.

An interesting note about the storm surge. The NHC Forecast Discussion (below)

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1108 12Z

points out storm surges in excess of 20 feet possible for eastern Cuba. That is because the water piling up to the right of the storm will have nowhere to go but onshore. Now, it is possible that Paloma had stronger winds for a time prior to the current estimate of 140 mph. It has been raking the Cayman’s. But, my guess is that there is not much of a surge on those islands and so damage may not be as catastrophic as one might expect because its just wind, albeit Cat 4 hurricane winds, and not wind and surge. The reason why I suspect this is because that the Caymans are volcanic islands. They don’t have much of a shelf. The ocean floor drops almost straight down from the island coast. With the compressibility of water, the water simply goes around the island instead of up and over.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE SUGGESTED THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO LEAST 943 MB. IN ADDITION…PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE WERE 134 KT WITH SFMR READINGS OF 127 KT…THOUGH THE LATTER VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED DUE TO SHOALING AROUND LITTLE CAYMAN/CAYMAN BRAC. SINCE THE PLANE DEPARTED…CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT…SO PERHAPS PALOMA’S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KT…AND THE HURRICANE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER A FEW HOURS AGO. TWO MORE PLANES WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE…COMBINED WITH SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY…SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER…PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM…REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC FORECAST. THEREAFTER…THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN’T TOO FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OVER 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER…THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.9N 79.3W 120 KT

12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.4N 78.2W 110 KT

24HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 77.0W 85 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 76.4W 60 KT

48HR VT 10/1200Z 22.0N 76.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 11/1200Z 22.5N 75.8W 30 KT…DISSIPATING

96HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 76.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 13/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Paloma Looking Good…For Now November 8, 2008

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite 1108 0215Z

for a more recent update on hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE

for a hurricane paloma radar loop, CLICK HERE navigate to Cuba and you should be able to get some of the reflectivity from radars in the vicinity.

Chilly Weekend. Variable cloudiness. Some sun on Saturday and generally cloudy on Sunday. Upper 40′s..maybe low 50′s Saturday. Not out of the 40′s on Sunday.

Nitwittery: The post from the other day was wrong…not the content but the date. Galloping Gertie (Tacoma Narrows Bridge) fell down on November 7, 1940. I had thought that November 6 was November 7 all day and then got all messed up. But, it’s still some cool video….both the newsreel and the color video.

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1107 10pm est

Hurricane Paloma: The satellite imagery is really impressive. Nice eye. A little bit of a change and that is

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1108 00Z

that it would appear that the trof may not be behaving…it seems to want to lift out and not pick up the storm. So, it moves in as a pretty formidable storm, but potentially weakening hurricane, into south-central Cuba…that is not different. The upper westerly winds are still shown by most models to be down through the Florida Straits. I suspect that the orientation of those winds with the storm is what helped to ramp it up. But, I had been speculating that Paloma gets ripped up by the

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1108 00Z

upper winds while it moves over Cuba. The models tend to start having those winds start ripping it up even before it gets to Cuba…what giveth taketh away. If the strong winds are slightly farther north, then Cuba still could get whacked. But, it does get left behind over the Bahamas. In general, the models that advertise this and the corresponding NHC forecast leaves it as a shadow of its present self. Coriolis parameters and the general flow kinda gets offset by the ridge to the north moving in behind the frontal boundary. The GFS wants to take the remnant back through the Florida Straits into the Gulf. I doubt that it would regenerate if it did that but it’s worth watching. Keep in mind, that several models still want to take it east out of the Bahamas after it moves off the Cuban coast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this but we’ll find out in time.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY…HAVING STRENGTHENED 15 KT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND 70 KT IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON PASS THROUGH THE EYE INDICATED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 964 MB…700 MB PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT…AND DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT EQUATING TO A 101 KT SURFACE WIND…AND A SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND OF 101 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THESE DATA EASILY SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/06 KT. PALOMA HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. AS PALOMA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA…A CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER…THE FORECAST TRACK OUT TO THAT TIME AND BEYOND IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS…THERE REMAINS A BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL SUITE WITH THE UKMET…ECMWF…AND NOGAPS MODELS RAPIDLY WEAKENING PALOMA AND TURNING IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA BY 36 TO 48 HOURS…WHEREAS THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER CYCLONE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM RECON AIRCRAFT…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF SOLUTIONS…ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BY 72 HOURS…EVEN IF PALOMA REMAINS VERTICALLY INTACT…THE HURRICANE’S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE…INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO AFFECT PALOMA UNTIL AROUND 12 HOURS…SO THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT REACHES LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. HOWEVER…BY 24 HOURS…THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT…WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT MAKE PALOMA A 105-KT HURRICANE UNTIL 24-36 HOURS…EVEN THOUGH IT IS ALREADY OCCURRING. HOWEVER…THOSE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PALOMA AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 19.1N 80.9W 100 KT

12HR VT 08/1200Z 19.8N 80.3W 100 KT

24HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 79.2W 90 KT

36HR VT 09/1200Z 21.2N 78.0W 70 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.1W 50 KT

72HR VT 11/0000Z 22.4N 76.2W 40 KT…DISSIPATING

96HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W 30 KT…REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 76.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Paloma: Eighth Hurricane of Atlantic Season November 7, 2008

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite 1107 0515Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Paloma, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Paloma: Really there is nothing substantive different from the previous report except that

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1107 1AM EST

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1107 00Z

Paloma is now a hurricane. This is not remarkable because its following the script. The satellite imagery had been improving steadily and now is rather impressive as the storm gaing some 40 mph wind increase in about 24 hours. The track is about the same. I’m not sure that I understand the models that want to take the storm west for a time or even moving into the western Bahamas. Really doesn’t make much sense given that we have a trof and westerly shear. I suppose maybe they don’t dig the trof that far south, the storm moves slowly and the ridge

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1107 00Z

behind the trof picks it up somehow. I give that whole idea a hrmph. The westerly winds I would think will drive it east. I don’t think the boys at the NHC are impressed with that scenario either as they have generally dismissed it except to mention it in the discussion. In my view, I would expect that this guy will get ripped to shreds as it crosses Cuba. Not just by the land but also more significantly by a strong westerly shear that has been progged for some time and has been consistent.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY…PLUS REPORTS FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057…INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. AT 2250Z…THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT…AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB…WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB…PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT…HOWEVER…THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE UKMET…GFDN…NOGAPS…AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND VERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD…WHEREAS THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING…THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY…AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES…LEANS TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS. PALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER…IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN 48 HOURS…SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE AND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24 HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN…AN EYE FEATURE…A RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS. THE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36 HOURS…WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER…BY 48 HOURS…THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE FROM 5 KT TO 25 KT…SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS… LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 17.2N 81.8W 65 KT

12HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 81.8W 80 KT

24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.5W 95 KT

36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.0N 80.8W 100 KT

48HR VT 09/0000Z 20.7N 79.8W 90 KT

72HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 45 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.5N 71.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER STEWART