Hurricane Paloma Attacking Communist Cuba; Did UFO Cause Great Northeast Blackout? November 9, 2008

for a more recent update on former hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE

Chilly, Crummy Day: As expected, clouds will wrap around and provide a cloudy day. Okay, I said that a few days ago but I was off one day. Clouds will dominate on Sunday and we will be hard pressed to get out of the 40′s. Sunshine is back on Monday with a bit of a moderation into the low 50′s. Boundary returns late Tuesday with clouds increasing and a few light afternoon showers will turn to general rainfall Wednesday into early Thursday. Friday we are a few degrees warmer than average with a cold front poised to move through Friday night.

Who Turned out the Lights? On this date in 1965, the lights went out in the Northeast. Biggest power

UFO selective in turning off the power?

outage in US history. It’s cause was found to be from a relay station at Niagara Falls. Here is a history of the 1965 blackout that was particularly difficult since it began during rush hour in New York. I remember my father being stuck in the RCA building in New York and the lights being out at home. The moon was huge and we sent my sister out to investigate what that large object was…we weren’t so sure it was a moon. Maybe it was a UFO because, according to some conspiracy theorists, the big power outage in 1965 was caused by a UFO. Here is the UFO angle. Never mind that it happened again in 2003 and never mind that it is acknowledged that our electric grid is antiquated and susceptable to catastrophic, large scale failure. No…it was an UFO. Just analyze these UFO reports from Nov 9, 1965 yourself!

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite Image 1109 0015Z

Hurricane Paloma: HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 620 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 AT APPROXIMATELY 620 PM EST…2320 UTC…HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES SATELLITE DATA AND A RECENT POSITION FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT…PLUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA…INDICATE THAT MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA LIKELY MADE LANDFALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 MPH…200 KM/HR. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1108 7PM EST

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1108 18Z

Hurricane Paloma had topped out at about 145 mph Saturday afternoon but was in

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1108 18Z

the process of backing off as it approached land. The pressure had risen to 952 mb. That tells me that the strong upper winds to the north was beginning to interact with the storm such that, instead of enhancing the storm, it was beginning to mess it up. You can see the result of the upper winds quite clearly on the satellite image by comparing the northern half of the storm to the southern half. This stong upper level westerly wind will continue as Paloma moves over the eastern third of Cuba. So, the upper part of the storm will get ripped to shreds by the shearing environment and the low level circulation gets torn up by the land of Cuba with some pretty significant mountains. In short, Paloma is behaving as previously outlined and all indications are that it will continue to do so. If not, my guess is that it gets ripped up, loses its head and its leftover then either drifts east or disappears. This guy is sorta similar to Charlie in that it has a very compact windfield…the strongest winds were pretty ferocious but the radius of the hurricane winds were maybe 25 miles. Unlike Ike, which had a core of winds that weren’t all that strong but had a huge area of some 250 to 300 mile radius of hurricane winds.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING… THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT…SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT…AND A RISING MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY… BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP…THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH…HOWEVER…IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND. THIS WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS…WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO…BUT HIGHER THAN…THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON…BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PALOMA MAY START TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST…BUT STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.5N 78.5W 125 KT

12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W 85 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W 60 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W 40 KT

48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W 30 KT…DISSIPATING

72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 13/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Paloma is a Big Bopper…For Now November 8, 2008

Hurricane Paloma Visible Satellite 1108 1545Z

for a more recent update on hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Paloma is tied for the 2nd strongest November Atlantic Hurricane. How does a hurricane get

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite 1108 1545Z

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1108 10AM EST

140 mph winds in November? Same as any other time of year. How did it increase in intensity so quickly? It is not just the warm water, but more importantly the upper winds. The same thing that will eventually kill Paloma is the same thing that gave it muscle. There is a streak of very strong upper level winds generally from west to east along Cuba. That is great for enhancing the anti-cyclonic outflow aloft which in turn vents the storm and helps lower the pressure. You can see quite clearly on the IR Satellite that the outflow is developed much better on the northern half of the storm than the southern half. I had been thinking that this guy would move farther east than forecast and the storm has moved more east and the official forecast has been adjusted eastward. What giveth taketh away. As the storm moves into the flow of the upper winds, then those winds, instead of aiding in the upper flow, will instead rip the storm apart as it moves into the eastern third of Cuba. The front moving through the east coast of the US will not dig far enough south to really pick it up but will be significant enough to draw it more north.

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1108 12Z

So, this guy will get ripped to shreds over Cuba. The low level circulation will get disrupted by the mountains of eastern Cuba and the upper support will get ripped up by the westerly strong winds. As it emerges north of Cuba in the Bahamas, the ridge building into the eastern United States behind the front will start to drive the storm back west…BUT…the upper winds will remain very strong toward the east. So, Paloma will lose its head…the upper winds will separate the upper support from the low level circulation. The result is that, instead of a strong hurricane, you get a run of the mill surface low.

An interesting note about the storm surge. The NHC Forecast Discussion (below)

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1108 12Z

points out storm surges in excess of 20 feet possible for eastern Cuba. That is because the water piling up to the right of the storm will have nowhere to go but onshore. Now, it is possible that Paloma had stronger winds for a time prior to the current estimate of 140 mph. It has been raking the Cayman’s. But, my guess is that there is not much of a surge on those islands and so damage may not be as catastrophic as one might expect because its just wind, albeit Cat 4 hurricane winds, and not wind and surge. The reason why I suspect this is because that the Caymans are volcanic islands. They don’t have much of a shelf. The ocean floor drops almost straight down from the island coast. With the compressibility of water, the water simply goes around the island instead of up and over.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE SUGGESTED THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO LEAST 943 MB. IN ADDITION…PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE WERE 134 KT WITH SFMR READINGS OF 127 KT…THOUGH THE LATTER VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED DUE TO SHOALING AROUND LITTLE CAYMAN/CAYMAN BRAC. SINCE THE PLANE DEPARTED…CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT…SO PERHAPS PALOMA’S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KT…AND THE HURRICANE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER A FEW HOURS AGO. TWO MORE PLANES WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE…COMBINED WITH SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY…SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER…PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM…REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC FORECAST. THEREAFTER…THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN’T TOO FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OVER 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER…THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.9N 79.3W 120 KT

12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.4N 78.2W 110 KT

24HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 77.0W 85 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 76.4W 60 KT

48HR VT 10/1200Z 22.0N 76.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 11/1200Z 22.5N 75.8W 30 KT…DISSIPATING

96HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 76.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 13/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$ FORECASTER BLAKE