Turn Out the Lights, Turn Up the Heat and Viva Alaska! October 18, 2008

In the 30s on Saturday Night

Hope Your Heater Works: As expected we had a much cooler day than we’ve seen in quite some time. An upper low will work its way through overnight bringing some light showers and clouds but the showers will probably not be that signficant and will end shortly after sunrise. The clouds won’t stick around long thereafter and the sun will be dominant by Saturday afternoon but area highs won’t get out of the low 60′s. Saturday night, the mercury will fall to the 30′s area wide with some places in the low 30′s. Hope your heaters work and be careful if you haven’t used yours yet this year. Check it out prior to use. Then get ready for your bill. I had figured that my gas rate had increased by 39%. LG & E corrected me. They claim its 65%!! Apparently I missed an interim increase. Natural gas prices have fallen quite a bit since they adjusted the rates in July. Hopefully when they readjust in November, they will come back down because I don’t want to have heating bills this winter like I had a few years ago…nor do you.

Tropical Storm Omar Satellite Image 1018 0245Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1017 11pm

Tropical Storm Omar is useless but if you want to read about it, check out below. But, at least you can find it now on the satellite imagery and is certainly much better looking that it was. It is moving over much colder water and as it continues northeast it will run into frontal zones. In short, Omar’s days are numbered. I think its still going to be interesting to see if it eventually affects Europe in whatever shape or form it is in. Remember, the role of tropical cyclones in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. They are not trying to melt the polar ice caps, they are just doing what they are supposed to do and this year, in the Atlantic Basin, they have done a very good job with several storms making it into the northern latitudes.

Want To See the $7.2 Million Dollar Check For Alaska Purchase?

Gov. Palin Owes Career To William H Seward?

Governor Palin’s Path is Set: Had it not been for the dogged determination of Secretary of State William H. Seward, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may be be the Vice-Presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

In the 19th Century, Russia laid claim to the Alaskan territory with the establishment of the fur-trading Russian-American Company. The company was quite profitable for awhile but by the 1860′s, business wasn’t too good. In order for the company to remain viable, the Tsar would have to heavily subsidize operations. Only a few hundred Russians had emigrated to Alaska and the Russians had no way of defending the vast region. The Tsar and his ministers thought it was in their best interest to sell the land to the Americans rather than lose it in battle to one of the world powers, like Great Britain.

Thanks Bill! Monty Hall Would Be Proud!

In 1867. Secretary of State William Seward began negotiations to acquire the territory. Now, Seward was a hold-over from the Lincoln administration and was serving under President Andrew Johnson at the time. Johnson became quite unpopular due to his Reconstruction policies and some in the public derisively called the plan “Seward’s Folly”, “Seward’s Ice Box” or “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden.” There were also facticious calls for the opening of the “Polar Bear Bureau” and the establishment of the “Superintendent of Walruses.” At the time, it was seen as a vast, empty wilderness. But, some histories now suggest that most of the general public thought it was a shrewd deal. Political opponents in Congress who were trying to figure out how to impeach Johnson delayed approval of the $7.2 million needed to complete the deal. But, perhaps because public opposition wasn’t as great as has been advertised, Congress ratified the deal on April 9, 1867 to acquire an area about twice the size of Texas being purchased for $7.2 million, or about 2 cents an acre. Funny thing is, Congress didn’t appropriate the money until July 1868. If you notice the Check above is dated August 1868. Guess the Tsar didn’t care too much about the slow payment but I suppose any Americans in Alaska before the check cleared could be considered to be squatters. Anyway, the public

Bill Had a Great Catch for the US

remained generally non-plussed about the deal until gold was discovered in 1896 and suddenly the acquisition wasn’t such a folly after all. As time went on, the deal became to be on par with buying Manhattan for $24.

Today, 25% of America’s oil comes from Alaska and about half of the seafood. It also produces a huge amount of natural gas, timber and other natural resources. Today, it has produced “Sarah Barracuda”, the first female Republican nominee for Vice-President. Alaska became a state in 1959 and there are two state

Andrew Johnson's Polar Bear Swimming Pool?

holidays marking its heritage. One is “Seward’s Day” which is in March every year to mark the day that William Seward signed the treaty (Mar 30, 1867) and the other is on October 18, which commemorates This date in History when on October 18, 1867, the United States formally took possession of the 586, 412 square miles of Alaska. If this Global Warming caper goes the way that Mr. Gore suggests, then “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden” will have to find a new name…perhaps “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Swimming Pool” would be more appropriate.

A No Doubt About It Genius

Turn Out the Lights For Edison

Turn out the Lights: On this date in 1931, perhaps the greatest single inventor in the history of the world died. Thomas Alva Edison died in West Orange, New Jersey at the age of 84. Upon his death, President Hoover asked all americans to turn out the lights for one minute. He had considered having all power plants across the nation be shut down but his advisors reminded him that electricity had become such a part of the American fabric that doing so would place many people at extreme risk. So, Hoover took the Republican approach of asking for a volunteer effort. Too bad he didn’t take a Republican view of taxes as, in the wake of the stock market crash, Hoover raised taxes and most economic historians point to his raising of taxes and tariffs that led to the Great Depression, not the stock market crash….anyway….

Thomas Edison’s 1093 US patents is a record that will probably never be even remotely challenged. There are a couple of links of Edison to Louisville. For a brief period of time when he was young, Edison lived in a small house in Louisville near Butchertown. (you can visit the home) One of his most famous inventions was the first practical incandescent light

Benefactor to the World

bulb in 1879. In 1883, the Southern Exposition opened in Louisville with a display of 20,000 incandescent lights making it the largest display in this history of the world at that time. The number of lights in Louisville at that time was more than the entire city of New York. Please take the time to READ THIS EDISON BIOGRAPHY as it does a far better justice than I could do to bring to the attention one of the most influential people in the history of the United States, and even the world, not just in the 19th and 20th century and far beyond. While it was not patented, Edison actually invented the modern method of invention…a footnote that is often lost in most history lessons.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS EVENING…WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER…AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 20Z SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A DEEP-LAYER WARM CORE…WHICH SSM/I IMAGERY SHOWS IS SURROUNDED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY/COOL AIR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM THE EARLIER OVERPASS…WITH NO RELIABLE-LOOKING VECTORS SHOWING WINDS OF MORE THAN 45 TO 50 KT. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 20Z WERE 55 TO 60 KT…WHILE REGULAR SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES…AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. OMAR HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/14. IN THE SHORT TERM…OMAR SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HR…THE GFS… ECMWF…UKMET..AND HWRF SHOW OMAR BEING ABSORBED INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…THIS AFTER OMAR TURNS MORE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE NOGAPS…THE BAMD…THE BAMM…AND THE LBAR FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION…CALLING FOR OMAR TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HR. HOWEVER…OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT OF THOSE MODELS. OMAR IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C…AND IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HR. WHILE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT…THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OMAR SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SCENARIO VERIFIES…OMAR WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE WARM FRONT OF THE ONCOMING BAROCLINIC LOW…WITH THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWING LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 48-96 HR PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 31.5N 52.8W 55 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 33.3N 51.1W 50 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 48.7W 45 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.7N 46.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 38.3N 43.2W 35 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 39.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 36.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 23/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

You Can’t Sue God and Only God Can Help Hurricane (Tropical Storm) Omar October 17, 2008

Kentucky Hammer Can't Help This Time

for a more recent update on Omar, CLICK HERE

Miracle on 34th Street Decision: Do you remember Miracle on 34th Street? I like the original version with Fred Mertz (William Frawley) advising the judge in the case that would determine whether or not Kris Kringle was Santa Claus. Rather than rule against St. Nick, the judge came up with a creative ruling in that he deferred to the wisdom of the US Postal Service. Well, in a case in which a man tried to sue God, this judge came up with a ruling that would make Fred Mertz proud. Read below:

You Can’t Sue God

Keep an eye on Central America?

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1017 1445Z

Hurricane Omar has seen it’s better day: There are a couple of disturbances

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 12Z

being monitored. One is the remnant of Tropical Depression 16 in Central America and the other is a little guy off the NE South America. I had mentioned some days ago about the risk of Tropical Depression 16 moving so slowly that it does not move west and increases the chances for it getting caught up in a more climatologically favored flow that would turn it north.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 12Z

There is nothing to suggest that at the moment. But I do find it interesting that the National Hurricane Center has determined that it is not moving and that they mention that it is not expected to move into the Caribbean in the next two days. If it was not a possibility, then why mention that and why put a time frame on the reference? Probably worth keeping up on if you live in Florida. Hurricane Omar is now Tropical Storm Omar and while the boys at the National Hurricane Center still hang on to the notion that it may have one final chance to kick it back up a notch, I still suggest that it is done for. Certainly, it is not a threat to any major land masses at this point unless it holds together as an extratropical storm on down the line and it affects Europe adversely. Otherwise, it is nothing more than a maritime concern. Here is the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC…THOUGH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY…A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT…ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE. OMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND…LIKELY CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH MAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS…AND THE FASTER PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY…OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF…BUT FASTER THAN… THE SHEAR VECTOR…WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE OTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO LOW TROPOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER …IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 28.9N 55.1W 60 KT

12HR VT 18/0000Z 31.4N 53.2W 60 KT

24HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.3W 55 KT

36HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 49.2W 50 KT

48HR VT 19/1200Z 36.6N 47.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 42.0W 40 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 36.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 22/1200Z…ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

Omar Lives! OPEC Cuts Off The Oil; Violence Breaks Out Over Election! Golden Retriever Gets $150K; Frost Possible This Weekend October 17, 2008

Frost Possible Saturday Night

for a more recent update on Omar, CLICK HERE

Much cooler air will work its way into Louisville over the weekend. For much of the month we’ve seen temperatures in Louisville in the 80′s, upper 80′s at times. The first front moved through and the rain on Thursday was pretty pathetic but we’ll take what we can get. Officially it was .11″ with the best report from around the county set at just over a quarter inch. There is the second, real push of cooler air set to move through this weekend. An associated upper low will come through on Friday that will increase clouds. There will be a slight chance for an late Friday night shower but it will be very insignificant. After mid 40′s and mid 60′s on Friday. Saturday the clouds will decrease early and we will generally be sunny by the afternoon but highs will only be in the low 60′s. Look for a clear chilly night Saturday night with the upper 30′s in Louisville and low to mid 30′s in the outlying areas. Frost will be possible. But, high pressure moves east and we get a turn around in the flow with Sunday becoming outstanding with a high near 70. Bottom line is that the weekend looks great, just have a jacket or sweater handy.

Hurricane Omar 1017 0445Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1016 11PM

Hurricane Omar: Earlier I said that I had not analyzed the situation but that a

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 00Z

quick look at the satellite imagery looked like Omar might be encountering a front. Well, the boys at the National Hurricane Center pooh-poohed that idea Thursday evening, specifically saying that there was no evidence of a front. That tells me that they looked but came up with nothing. But, they note that there is a strong shear from the southwest and that Omar has lost its warm upper core. The mid layers are still warm so they are keeping it as a

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 00Z

tropical cyclone. They are openly pondering how much longer that Omar will be able to keep that classification. Bottom line is that this guy is dying and in 48 hours it will move over water that is less than 80 F and I suspect in 36 to 60 hours it will lose it’s tropical moniker, though the official forecast is more optimistic for Omar. The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Omar Forecast discussion, authored by Florida State University alum Dr. Jack Beven can be found below. I know Jack Beven. I went to school with Jack Beven. I can tell you, I’m no Dr. Jack Beven…but from experience I can tell you that I am a better bowler.

Bad Guy In 1973

On This Date In History: On this date in 1973, the flow of oil to the United States began to run dry. In the early 1960′s, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela decided to get together and co-ordinate their policies in an effort to raise the price of oil. They called their new alliance Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC). During that decade, other largely Arab nations and Third World oil producers jumped on board. But, they largely failed until the early 1970′s as there was an increase in global demand and a decrease in US oil production.

While OPEC was having a little meeting in Vienna in October 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel. It became known as the Yom Kippur War because it began on October 6, 1973 on Yom Kippur. Israel took it on the chin for a few days but thereafter pushed back and, after receiving aid from the US, Netherlands and Denmark, the Israelis pushed the Syrians out of the Golan Heights and went so far west as to cross the Suez Canal when a cease fire was put in effect on October 26, 1973.

Even though Syria and Egypt weren’t part of OPEC but on October 17, 1973 it was apparent that things weren’t going so well for the pair of attackers so OPEC decided to help out in the geopolitical arena by initially saying that it would decrease exports to the US and other Israel supporters by 5 percent a month until Israel returned to pre-1967 war borders. Global oil prices went up 70%. By December, OPEC made it an all out embargo and the price of oil went up another 130%. It wasn’t long before oil prices were up 400%. After US Secretary of State Henry Kissenger negotiated a deal between the warring nations, the embargo was lifted…but prices didn’t fall. They kept going up during the 1970′s and by 1980 the world price of oil was 10 times what it had been just seven years before. During the 80′s and 90′s, the prices fell and stayed low until the first decade of the 21st century.

So, if you look at it…the Arab Oil Embargo only lasted for 4 months. Other forces came into play to push the price higher. The US economy really took a hit. It wasn’t so much the price rise as it was the rapidity that prices rose. Same thing happened here in the past few years…prices rose so rapidly that no one could adjust and it rose so much faster than the economy, global or otherwise, could rise. But, look at it this way…a few years ago the price of oil was about $35 a barrel. In order for us to equal the situation in the 1970′s, the price of oil would need to go to $350 a barrel. Let us hope that history does not repeat itself.

Show Me The Money!

Someone is getting rich: With all of us feeling the pinch these days and so much uncertainty, it’s good to see that there is enough money out there for a dog to receive a check for $150,000. I don’t think it was written by Ed McMahon.

Golden Retriever Gets $150,000

Violence Erupts over Presidential Election: In Ohio, it is allowed for early voting. At one polling place, a woman came to vote and one poll watcher accused the other of tampering with the ballot, changing it from a vote for Sen. McCain to a vote for Sen. Obama. One poll worker is accused of jumping on the back of the other and hitting him repeatedly in the head. Here is the story of the 73 year old woman who allegedly attacked the 75 year old man. I don’t think the pair was identified as Barbara Streisand and Ted Nugent.

Old Folks Fisticuffs at the “home” Over Election

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

OMAR HAS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL APPEARANCE THIS EVENING…WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT OMAR HAS LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE DUE TO SHEAR…BUT RETAINS A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. THAT…COMBINED WITH NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARBY…MEANS THAT IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE. A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING 65 KT WIND VECTOR AND SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS. BASED ON THIS…OMAR IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE UP TO 00Z…BUT HAS NOW LIKELY WEAKENED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…040/22. OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK. OMAR IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OMAR TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR…AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 72 HR. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE…WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST IT TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME…IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL BE CORRECT. THUS…THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GLOBAL MODELS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OMAR WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE CALLED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT OMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ABOUT 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR…ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT OMAR WILL DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IF FROM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM WEAKENING. THUS…THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HR…OMAR WILL CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM…ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR… AND BEGIN MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72-96 HR…AND KEEPS OMAR AT 35 KT DURING THIS TIME. IF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECASTS VERIFY… OMAR COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER…THAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 23.8N 58.1W 60 KT

12HR VT 17/1200Z 26.4N 56.2W 55 KT

24HR VT 18/0000Z 29.3N 54.0W 50 KT

36HR VT 18/1200Z 31.3N 51.9W 45 KT

48HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 49.6W 40 KT

72HR VT 20/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W 35 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 21/0000Z 38.0N 35.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 28.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Omar Is In Hiding October 16, 2008

Where's Omar?

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1016 5pm

for a more recent update on hurricane omar, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Omar almost got to cat 4 level as it moved through the islands of the

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1016 18Z

northeastern Caribbean. Now, less than 24 hours later it’s tough to find on the satellite image. Fortunately for the residents and business interests there, the center of the storm moved between St. Croix and St. Martin/Maarten. So, the effects were relatively minimal. Puerto Rico only got less than a half inch of rain, St. Croix appears to be have gotten the highest rain totals with over 5 inches. Haiti, while minimally affected is in even more desperate conditions than usual since it has now been affected by 4 tropical cyclones in a relatively short period of time. Here’s the story with video. But, regarding Omar, apparently no one experienced anything close to the maximum winds of 125 mph and the storm moved so quickly that it didn’t bring catastrophic rain totals that often are associated with tropical cyclones. It is now moving quickly out to sea and falling apart rapidly as it interact with at least an upper low that is shearing it to pieces. I haven’t analyzed it but it almost looks like that its getting engulfed by a frontal zone too.

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1016 18Z

OMAR'S CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WHILE THE
PRINCIPAL BAND TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH STILL CONTAINS VIGOROUS
DEEP CONVECTION.  CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ARE STILL
FORCING TAFB AND SAB TO INDICATE ABOUT A 90 KT HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL
FEATURES...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
30 DEGREES AT 23 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO
ITS NORTH AND MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR ALONG A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS...THE VARIOUS
MODELS SPLIT INTO TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
RE-INTENSIFICATION AND EXPANSION IN SIZE NEAR THE AZORES. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...GFS...AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BE MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...AND
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OFF OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THIS ADVISORY IS THE
LATTER SCENARIO...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WEST OF THE
CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

DESPITE BEING OVER VERY WARM WATER...THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE INNER CORE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OMAR.  HOWEVER...THE RAPID MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST MAY SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
THE SHEAR.  THE FAST FORWARD MOTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE
WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE VORTEX.  THUS ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST MORE RAPID WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THOUGH THESE TECHNIQUES ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTING THE
LARGE NEGATIVE PERSISTENCE FACTOR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 22.1N  59.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N  57.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 28.2N  55.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.1N  53.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 32.2N  50.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 36.0N  46.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 38.0N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

Hurricane Omar Threads the Needle October 16, 2008

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1016 1515Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1016 11AM

Hurricane Omar moved quickly through the northern Antilles….the Northern Leeward Islands…and did so in a quite pleasing manner. I had explained late Wednesday that the storm was on the upswing and that was potentially bad news. As it went through the islands, the pressure was down to about 961mb and the winds up to 125 mph. But, the center of the storm where the strongest winds are located, passed between St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands and St. Martin. St. Croix was on the left hand side of the storm and while, when you read this report, it says that the island was on the “weak side” of the storm. That weak/strong point is well known for a landfalling hurricane. But, when you are talking about a storm in open waters perhaps passing over small islands, I don’t think that weak side/strong side formula holds much veracity. As it was, the US Virgin Islands were far enough away from the center that the winds were around 50 mph.

Hurricane Omar Vis Satellite 1016 1515Z

I have learned something new though…that is that one of the 10 largest oil refineries is on St. Croix. Authorities there shut down the Hovensa oil refinery as a precaution. Apparently Hess got together with the US Virgin Islands government to diversify the economy. Now, the refinery is situated in a spot where it can make finished products and then send them up the east coast or into the Gulf of Mexico or even up the Missisippi River to the US Interior. Its the largest employer in St. Croix. I wonder if the products from the refinery that end up in the US are considered imports…and anything that goes to another country considered to be an export? I guess I’m not up to speed on what degree the US Virgin Islands are considered part of the US.

Anyway, as I had mentioned in the previous post, Omar is moving rapidly and will move even more quickly as it goes into the North Central Atlantic where it has already begun to diminish and will continue to do so as it moves into much colder water. In all honesty, the satellite imagery looks pretty ragged on midday Thursday and it looks like this guy is getting ripped up very quickly. This storm passed through the islands at the very height of its life…the folks on the islands are fortunate that they didn’t get a direct hit and that Omar was good at threading needles.

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1016 12Z

IT IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO ME AT HOW QUICKLY A HURRICANE CAN SPIN UP AND JUST AS QUICKLY FALL APART. OMAR REACHED NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY 4 EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 06Z AND NOW WE HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOWING UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST A FEW HOURS LATER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES WERE SUGGESTING AROUND 90-100 KT AT 12Z. BUT GIVEN THE RAPID DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE…THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED…WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY…TO BE 75 KT. DESPITE VERY WARM WATERS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR…AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY…HAS PRODUCED THE WEAKENING IN OMAR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CAUSE A DECREASE IN ITS INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1016 12Z

TREND OF OMAR’S INTENSITY WAS NOT CORRECTLY ANALYZED AT SYNOPTIC TIME…THE STATISTICAL MODELS…SHIPS AND LGEM…ARE PROVIDING VALUES THAT ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH. THE FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF MODEL WHICH DID VERY WELL IN ANTICIPATING THIS MORNING’S RAPID WEAKENING OF OMAR. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AROUND DAY 4…IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THE GLOBAL MODELS’ CONSENSUS. THE NOW EASY-TO-SEE CENTER DID FORCE US TO MAKE A LAST SECOND RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION AS WELL AS THE SHORT TERM TRACK FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION THAN AT FIRST ESTIMATED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR…BUT THEN SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SLOWER PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 20.2N 61.3W 75 KT

12HR VT 17/0000Z 23.5N 59.5W 70 KT

24HR VT 17/1200Z 28.0N 56.9W 65 KT

36HR VT 18/0000Z 31.3N 54.3W 60 KT

48HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.9W 55 KT

72HR VT 19/1200Z 38.0N 45.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 21/1200Z 40.0N 23.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

Too Bad Hurricane Omar Couldn’t Attend a Laughing Gas Party October 16, 2008

Rainfall Total Forecast Thu 1016 thru Fri 1017

FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON HURRICANE OMAR, CLICK HERE

link to hurricane omar radar loop. just CLICK HERE, navigate to puerto rico and hit “animate”

The way our weather has shaken out is that we have a boundary come through on Thursday. The bulk of the rain will come after midnight on Wednesday and carry into midday Thursday. Rainfall totals will generally be less than a half inch. Temperatures will be decidedly cooler. Late Friday we have a little short wave wander through in the flow that will increase clouds. We are backing off a bit from the prospects of rain on Friday and if we get anything on Friday night it will be just scattered sprinkles…there appears to be too much dry air working in to support anything overly significant. But pointedly though will be the sharply cooler conditions. We’ll only make it to around the 60′s degree mark Saturday despite plenty of afternoon sunshine. After a Saturday morning start in the low 40′s, Sunday morning look for frost in many areas with Louisville being one of the warmer spots with a start around 39. Outlying areas may be in the low to mid 30′s. Sunday the sun helps us move up to around 70 as we get on the west side of a big fat area of high pressure.

Atlantic Satellite 1016 0115Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1015 11pm

Hurricane Omar: Hurricane Omar is a nice looking storm and continues to push toward the Virgin Islands and will move through overnight and through Thursday morning. The islands on the

Hurricane Omar Satellite 1016 0145Z

northeastern fringe of the Caribbean will get a pretty good whack from this storm that will most likely have winds well in excess of 100 mph. Fortunately, it will move along at a decent clip so that rain totals will not be too extreme, but water-logged Puerto Rico still may be adversely affected by copious amounts of rain. Omar has continued to deepen as the pressure has dropped to 967 mb and winds have

Hurricane Omar Watches and Warnings 1015 11pm

increased to 115 mph with higher gusts. The strengthening perhaps is the most significant aspect of Omar as this guy moves through the islands on the upswing, not in a deteriorating cycle. Once it passes, it will go into the north-central Atlantic where it will eventually encounter colder water and perhaps a frontal zone. This guy may end up affecting Europe though in some form…not tropical but perhaps formidable.

Tropical Depression 16 is muddling its way through Central America. While it may not become Tropical Storm Paloma, it will bring difficult rains to Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Academically the most interesting thing about this guy will be if it remains intact enough as it moves into the Pacific to regenerate. If it did, it would receive a new name.

The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Omar Forecast Discussion can be found at the bottom of the post along with the associated spaghetti models. At the top of the page you will also find a link to a Hurricane Omar Radar Loop. You simply navigate away from the Ohio Valley default down to the Caribbean. You will get images from the Puerto Rico radar. To loop the image, simply hit the “animate” button.

Laughing Gas Party 1839

On This Date in History: In the first half of the 19th Century, performers went around the country

Party Time For the Lady?

performing acts that showed the side effects of nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas.” A Georgia physician, Dr. Crawford Long attended a party in which the foolishness took place and was asked by friends if he could make up a batch for their own private fun. Long suggested the use of ether instead as he found it quite suitable for the desired effects. At that point, all across the Peach State laughter at parties was heard of people chuckling at each others stumbling and bumbling while high on ether. Long’s interest was piqued. He noted how people didn’t feel any pain.

Dr. William Morton Died Young

One of the fellow party makers was James Venable who had a tumor. Now, at the time, the pain associated with surgery was totally based on how fast the surgeon could do his work. So, Long convinced Venable to try out the gas before he had his tumor removed. He agreed and on March 30, 1842 the tumor was removed successfully without pain. But, Long did not publish his findings right away as he was not fully convinced. Long’s conservative approach was probably a good idea.

Dentist Horace Wells in Hartford, CT attended a laughing gas show and recognized the potential of nitrous oxide. So, he jumped the gun and took his case to the Massachusetts General Hospital where the demonstration promptly went asunder and Wells was ridiculed as a fraud. That led to Dr. William Morton.

Dr. Morton had worked with Dr. Wells and had learned of the promise of ether’s numbing properties from chemist Dr. Charles Jackson. He tried it out on some patients to much success and he too went to Massachusetts General Hospital. He said he had discovered a new wonder drug. What he really had was the very same ether that Wells had, but he camouflaged it with aromic oils so it would alter the oder. On October 16, 1846 the chief of surgery at Massachusetts General removed a neck tumor and also performed a leg amputation. The surgeries were pain free and the age of anesthetics was here. Morton patented the formula hoping to get rich.

Emory University Hospital Named For Dr. Crawford Long

But, Jackson and his supporters claimed they were the true discoverers. Morton in 1868 went to New York to defend his position against supporters of Jackson. He had a seizure and died. Upon seeing Morton’s tombstone that gave Morton credit for anesthetic, Jackson went insane and spent the rest of his life in an asylum. Then we have the fate of Dr. Wells, who jumped the gun with his demonstration. He became addicted to chloroform and his mind eroded. He ended up in jail and somehow got ahold of chloroform, soaked a clothe in it and covered his face after opening up his arteries. He quietly and painlessly bled to death.

As for perhaps the true pioneer of the use of anesthetics, Dr. Crawford Long? The one who was not bold enough to publish his findings? He continued as a general practitioner until 1878 when he died making a house call. Perhaps his caution and conservative approach was reflective of his life as those who went for the fame and fortune all died in bizarre and untimely manners. I wonder if those 3 would think that it was worth it?

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL152008 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1016 00Z

JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT…AND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB. ON THIS BASIS…OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION…SHOWING INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL. OMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/17. IN THE SHORT TERM…THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED. OTHER THAN THAT…THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD. OMAR IS EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1016 00Z

MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP OMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS…WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER… OMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN…WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS…POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY HIGHER…CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.4N 64.5W 100 KT

12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.4N 63.1W 105 KT

24HR VT 17/0000Z 22.2N 61.2W 100 KT

36HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 59.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 18/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 80 KT

72HR VT 19/0000Z 34.0N 53.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 41.5W 55 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 21/0000Z 47.0N 25.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Omar Eyeballs Virgin Islands October 15, 2008

Atlantic Satellite 1015 2045Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1015 5pm

for a more recent update on Hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE.

for an interactive radar that allows you to navigate to the puerto rico radar site, CLICK HERE. navigate away from the ohio valley default and hit “animate” to loop.

For some reason people keep going to an old post about Tropical Storm Omar.

Hurricane Omar Visible Satellite 1015 2115Z

Omar became a Hurricane on Tuesday night and has continued to look farily impressive. Hurricane Omar is gaining strength as it’s been in an environment of weak shearing. The pressure has fallen to 973 mb and that has translated into 80 kt winds. As it moves into the Virgin Islands, winds of 100 mph will not be out of the question with some higher gusts. Hurricane Warnings are flying in

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 2115Z

the US and British Virgin Islands, St. Martin, Aguilla and most of the islands in the northern Antilles. While the storm should pass east of

Hurricane Omar Watches and Warnings 1015 5pm

Puerto Rico, that island nation will feel the effects as will the islands in the central Antilles. The storm will move rapidly into the north-central Atlantic and die in the colder waters of the north Atlantic. At this point, I’m not going to fool with Tropical Depression 16 as it has been stradling the northern Honduran coast. If it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma, it will be little more than an academic exercise as the region of Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua have been and will be feeling the effects of heavy rain with high flood potential. The National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Hurricane Omar is below as well as spaghetti model data:

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 18Z

TWO RECENT PASSES THROUGH OMAR’S EYE INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 4 MB…DOWN TO 973 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 89 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT…WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT AN
80-KT SURFACE WIND…DESPITE THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE MEASURED
HAVING ONLY BEEN 74 KT. HOWEVER…THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND THE
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN PLAYING A GAME OF CAT-AND-MOUSE…AND I DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 80 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE-WIND
RELATIONSHIP FOR 973 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 85 KT.

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/013. AFTER AN EARLIER JOG TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST…IT APPEARS THAT OMAR HAS RESUMED ITS BASE COURSE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY AS ALL OF THE TRACK
MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
12-18 HOURS HOURS. AFTER THAT…OMAR IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS
IT GETS DRAWN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY 3. DURING DAYS 4-5…OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MUCH COOLER
WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACK…AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS…WHICH HAS HAD A NOTICEABLE FAST FORWARD
SPEED BIAS.

STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE EYEWALL
AND RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL DISTINCT
MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE INNER PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS
FAVORABLE SMALL-SCALE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO…WHICH MEANS THAT OMAR HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GFDL MODEL WAS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH OMAR ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN AND
BRINGS THE HURRICANE UP TO 109 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THAT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF A
RAPIDLY SHRINKING CDO FEATURE…PLUS THE INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER…SINCE OMAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
29C SSTS…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE
…AND WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. ALSO…INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE REMINDED THAT STRONGER WINDS…POSSIBLY ONE
CATEGORY HIGHER…CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.9N 66.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 85 KT…NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 23.2N 60.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.1N 59.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 31.7N 54.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 39.0N 44.5W 60 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Is Justice Too Blind? Can Whiskers Buy Votes? Is Omar a Howler? October 15, 2008

Rain Total Forecast Wed 1015 thru Fri 1018

for a link to a radar loop and a more recent update on hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE

As you can tell if you compare this outlook for the latter part of the week with the previous HPC forecast assessment of raintotals through Friday evening, you will notice much less anticipated around here. That is because there are a couple of scenarios but neither brings much rain here. The ETA today was advertising a little less than a half inch on Thursday afternoon and that was it. The GFS wanted a little early Thursday and a little early Friday totalling less than 1/10 of an inch. We feel like the truth is somewhere in between. While we think that Wednesday will be warm, the first little weak boundary may be sufficient to bring some showers early Thursday. Then the second push with the cold air associated with it, brings some light scattered activity on Friday. Look for sunshine over the weekend but highs on Saturday and Sunday of 60 and 68 respectively but with frost possible in some areas on Saturday night as everyone should fall to the 30′s.

Atlantic IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Years ago, I saw Jimmy Buffett in Austin and his harmonica player, Greg “Fingers” Taylor performed the night before with “Omar and the Howlers”. Not sure what happened to that band…I think Fingers Taylor has still performed with Jimmy off and on over the years….but today we have Hurricane Omar, which is bearing down on the Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten (Martin) and St. Barthelemy. Omar has looked pretty good on the satellite image and became a hurricane Tuesday evening. It’s still likely to move through the northeast Caribbean and into the open Atlantic where liners, freighters, oil tankers and pirates will have to deal with it.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Tropical Depression 16 is still generally expected to move along the Honduran coast and into Belize. A couple of models differ with that scenario and that may be a result of climatology built into the models. If the storm were to move slow enough, it would be possible for the ridge steering it move or break down and allow for some northward motion. But, that is not expected and the most serious aspect of this storm at this point is heavy rain and flood potential in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The most interesting thing most likely will be if it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma or if it makes it across into the Pacific.

Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Discussion for both tropical systems as well as the forecast tracks and more graphical information.

Harper's Weekly Mar 9, 1861 Lincoln Sneaks Into Washington

Last Lincoln Portrait Apr 4 1865

On This Date in History: On October 15, 1860 the Republican nominee for President, Abraham Lincoln, received a letter from eleven-year-old Grace Bedell. At that time, women did not have the right to vote so young Grace urged Mr. Lincoln to grow a beard. She said, “All the ladies like whiskers and they will tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president.” But, Lincoln did not grow the beard until after he was elected. Most histories suggest that the beard was grown as a make-shift disguise for his arrival in Washington for the inaugural because there were so many threats against his life. He came to Washington under the cover of darkness, with the beard. But, Lincoln later responded to queries and said that the genesis of the beard was traced back to the letter of Grace Bedell.

Now, artists were alerted in advance that the President-elect would emerge at the inaugural with a beard. But no one knew what he would look like. So, they simply used existing photos and added beard styles of their choosing. I think it’s safe to say that none of them were able to fully reproduce the lasting image of “Father Abraham.”

Blindfold Too Tight For Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1014 11pm

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING…

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR…AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0…OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION… THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5…AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO…AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE…BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT…BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008

1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11pm

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER…ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS…BUT ONLY A SMALL

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER…POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION…A GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.2N 83.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.6W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 85.8W 35 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.2N 87.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 88.5W 40 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 91.0W 25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK