No More Bull and No More Hurricane Kyle
September 29, 2008

Davis Declares No More Bull

Davis Declares No More Bull

if you hurry, you may be able to catch the tropical storm kyle radar loop by CLICKING HERE before it scoots off out of radar range into Canada. just navigate away from the ohio valley default location and move northeast, then click animate to loop.

We have one more day of warmer than average temperatures before we do a flip-flop. We’ve had below average rain totals for every month this summer and it is carrying into fall. A cold front coming through early Tuesday will bring some light showers but nothing of real consequence. While I think everyone will get some rain, you will be hard pressed to find anyone who got a quarter inch before it comes to an end midday on Tuesday. Highs for the rest of the week will be in the upper 60’s and low 70’s and over night lows for a couple of nights will be in the low 40’s. It would not surprise me to see some folks in the outlying areas get to the upper 30’s on Thursday morning and maybe Friday morning as well. We warm up some over next weekend but no real rain is in the offing.

Tropical Storm Kyle Satellite IR image 0929 0245Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Satellite IR image 0929 0245Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0928 11pm

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0928 11pm

Tropical Storm Kyle: Yes, we’re back to a tropical storm and it is no longer Hurricane Kyle. Most of Sunday it held on to the more robust moniker though it didn’t deserve it. The winds were about the only thing that was hurricane about it. It was a becoming a cold core low with arguably a front extending from it, was over water temperatures in the 50’s and the air temperatures were in the low 60’s. Nothing really tropical about it but since it had already been a hurricane, might as well keep it as that designation to keep the public up to speed. It made landfall east of Maine and will be moving quickly to and through the Gulf of St. Lawrence and into Quebec by Monday night. Canadian officials are concerned that people inland aren’t taking the storm seriously and so thats why its well enough that they kept the more menacing designation for as long as they did. We can tell you in Louisville, winds of 40-60 mph for several hours and cause a lot of damage and make for a lot of headaches. Look to the bottom for the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion.

Gen. William "Bull" NelsonOn This Date in History: Union General William “Bull” Nelson got his name from being a big, bearish man who used his physical size to intimidate others. He had initially been an officer in the navy and somehow became a general in the army. But the Bull was butchered in the Galt House in Louisville on this date in 1862. Not only was he murdered by another Union General named Jefferson Davis, he met his demise in the presence of the Governor of Indiana.

In the summer of 1862, while General Don Carlos Buell was wandering around Tennessee with his Louisville based Army of the Ohio building railroads following the battle of Shiloh, the contingent of men left to defend Louisville was left to one of Buell’s subordinates, Nelson. Confederate General Braxton Bragg began a campaign into Kentucky and the fear was he would get to Louisville before Buell could return. So, while Buell was plodding along back to Louisville, Nelson started putting cannon on the Indiana side of the river so he could shell the city if the Confederates ever invaded. For some reason, Bragg didn’t come to Louisville…probably a blunder…though he was probably fearful of the reception he would get from the populous. So, as Buell’s army trickled back in, Nelson spied Gen. Jeff Davis of Indiana ordering his men to dig in. Bull didn’t think much of that and let Davis know.

Davis wasn’t pleased but instead of manning up and facing Bull, he ran back to Indianapolis and fetched Indiana Governor Oliver Morton and on the evening of September 29 1862 in the stairwell of the Galt House in Louisville, tough guy Davis confronted Nelson. He challenged the powerful Nelson to a duel who, in front of Morton, rebuffed Davis with a scoff and then with the back of his hand when pressed. Nelson went up the stairs and our hero Davis grabbed a pistol, ran up the stairs and shot General Nelson dead. Before he died, Nelson tried to cover all of his bases by getting baptized but that didn’t help with the post mortem scales of justice. See, Buell had Davis arrested but Buell got fired about two months later following the battle of Perryville. With Buell out of the way and the main witness being a good Republican Governor from a Union State, Davis never faced trial and so the murder of a Union General in front of several witnesses was never “solved.” And so ends another tale of courage and justice during the Civil War and it all happened at the Galt House.

No word on whether or not Davis spent the rest of his life looking on golf courses for the real killer.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE…AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. CONSEQUENTLY…KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23…WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
BYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE
MORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING…AND AS A RESULT I’VE PLACED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 44.8N 65.9W 60 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 64.6W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0000Z 49.5N 63.7W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1200Z 50.6N 63.7W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/0000Z 51.5N 64.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 02/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Kyle Headed Toward A Cold Demise
September 28, 2008

Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 2045Z

Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 2045Z

 

For a Hurricane Kyle Radar Image as it moves through the Gulf of Maine, CLICK HERE, but you better do so fast as the storm is moving quickly.  Just navigate from the Ohio Valley default region to the northeast.  Hit animate to loop and you can add clouds and lightning if it suits your fancy.

Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0928 5pm

Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0928 5pm

Hurricane Kyle is behaving.  If it were being analyzed for the first time, it probably would not be called a hurricane.  But, since it was, then it is.  It is rapidly losing tropical characteristics and even looks to have a frontal zone associated with it. Certainly you can see its more of a classical comma shape than a tropical cyclone.  It is over waters that are less than 60 degrees.  Remember, you need at least 80 degrees for a tropical cyclone.  But, the winds remain high so why not keep it designated as a hurricane for public consumption so people won’t get lackadasical.  In the report below you see them reference the buoy that at 1pm edt reported seas of 36 feet.  The water temperature at that location 170 NM east of Hyannisport, MA was 55 degrees and the air temperature was 61.  Not exactly a tropical paradise.  Nevertheless, its a pretty good storm and will quickly zip north toward Northeast Quebec or perhaps into New Foundland. 

HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING…A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM…AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY…AT ABOUT 1600 UTC…NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER…AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT…SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER…GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS…KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE…I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE… AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS…
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION…THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT
12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     01/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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