No Hurricanes Yet: Due to El Nino, Global Warming or Neither; US V.P. wanted for murder July 11, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season began June 1. Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives. 7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly. Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season. The most ferocious for the US was Hurricane Ike and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos. The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes. The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about. People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992. Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since.

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project. This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes. There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes. This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino was anticipated as the season unfolds. It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming. However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes. In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity. Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world. So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

Last year, A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite. Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did. Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study. This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

 So, now it’s official from NOAA, El Nino is upon us.  What that typically means is a risk for big storms on the Pacific Northwest coast this winter along with a cooler and wetter winter season for the southern plains, among other things.  One of those other things is a limitation of tropical development in the Atlantic basin.  The experts took the notion of a weak El Nino into consideration when they made their initial forecast.   Can we expect a dramatic revision downward in the hurricane forecast or is the El Nino data in line with their supposition?  Personally, I’m not so sure  that humans have enough understanding of the atmosphere and factors involved in tropical storm development to be making long term tropical forecasts.  The forecasts get revised every so often during the year so at the end, they come close, but the initial prognostications are often way way off.  We’ll see. It’s still pretty early in the hurricane season and lack of activity through mid July by no means is a predictor for the rest of the season, which typically peeks in early September.

Aaron Guns Down Alex

 On This Date In History: In recent years, we have heard the “I” word tossed about rather liberally. That word is impeach.

 President Andrew Johnson was impeached but was not convicted by one vote. President Clinton was impeached but also avoided removal from office as the Senate did not vote for conviction. Today, we haven’t heard of anyone calling for the impeachment of  the current president or vice-president.  Yet.  Someone probably will before President Obama’s 4 years are up.  There were certainly those who wanted to impeach President Bush and even Vice-President Cheney.   These calls came from allegations of malfeasance. But on this date in 1804, there is no doubt about it…the Vice-President of the United States gunned down Revolutionary War hero Alexander Hamilton.

Peter Charles Hoffer Wrote About Burr Treason Trials

Hamilton had been an aide-de-camp of Washington during the war and later led a crucial attack at the Battle of Yorktown. He became the first Secretary of the Treasury and served in that capacity for 6 years before retiring. He then formed the Federalist Party, the first political party in America. He detested Thomas Jefferson and the two developed what became known as Hamiltonian ideals and Jeffersonian ideals. Basically, Hamilton wanted a strong central government and Jefferson was for a weak central government with most of the power belonging to the states. Today, Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Burr's 1807 Treason Trial

 Anyway, in 1804, Burr was the sitting Vice-President under Jefferson and Hamilton had made some unsavory remarks about Burr, who responded with a challenge to a duel! Hamilton had been famous for dueling but had ironically pushed to outlaw the practice in New York. So, Hamilton and Burr went across the river to New Jersey. On this date in 1804, two shots rang out in Weehawken, New Jersey. Hamilton lay mortally wounded. There is great speculation regarding the incident as many suggest that Hamilton missed on purpose as he was a veteran duelist and a good shot. But there were procedures if one was to desire to not shoot one’s opponent. Hamilton did not follow the procedures. Witnesses could not determine who fired first. But what did happen, is that Burr was forced to stay out of New York for the remainder of his term as murder charges were filed. He is now left to nothing more as a footnote to history, though he was later tried for treason. Alexander Hamilton, on the other hand, has lived in immortality as the face of the ten dollar bill.

 Henry Clay in 1809 was in a Kentucky duel. He was lucky. Both he and his opponent were lousy shots.

 While Dick Cheney did in fact shoot his friend with a shotgun blast, the calls for his impeachment had nothing to do with his shooting prowess.

SPC Severe Risk Sat 8am to Sun 8am

SPC Sun Severe Risk Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Saturday is here and a cold front is on its way.  By 9 am it appeared on the radar that a line of t’storm was trying to form along the front between a strong line that extended from near Cleveland and Indy and another cluster associated with a shortwave on the front that was in Southern Illinois.  This would suggest that the risk for t’storms with the initial frontal approach will be in the late afternoon or evening in the Louisville region, which will be the heat of the day.  Guess here is that wind will be the main severe risk with perhaps some hail.  The SPC doesn’t have us in the risk for tornadic activity but,  I can tell you that studies have shown that a large number of the twisters that happen in our area are little guys that spin up and go away quickly along bow echoes…so I wouldn’t put that concern totally to bed.  Nevertheless, if you get damage from wind in a small tornado or strong straight line winds or a downburst, the results are the same so it’s really not relevant except that people like say they were hit by a tornado rather

Tornado probability

than strong wind. Guess it sounds sexier.  Anyway, the local NWS office puts the threat between 1 pm and 9 pm and I suspect that John Gordon’s folks are looking at the same line that I am.  Now, what will happen is that the front will get hung up near our area so the threat for t’storms will be with us for several days as little short waves move along the stalled boundary.  The threats each day will be dependent on the timing of the waves and the exact position of where the front will be lined up and forecasting that at this point is above my paygrade and more of a crap shoot call for anyone, so I shant try to pinpoint that as it will probably be wavering about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

Severe Wind Probability

   
   VALID 111300Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
   INTO OH VALLEY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH RIVER VALLEY…
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE

Severe Hail probability

GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
   CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HEATING THROUGH THE 70S F INTO MUCH OF
   PA/NY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
   ONTARIO/LOWER MI…WITH 80-90F TEMPS SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING…SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PORTIONS OF OH INTO WRN-CENTRAL PA/NY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES.  ACTIVITY
   WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD
   ESEWD WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   UNDER 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
  
   FARTHER SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY…REGION WILL REMAIN ON
   FRINGES OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER…AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
   MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF
   SLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
  
   …CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK OVER SWRN SD WHICH ARE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING.  MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD
   AWAIT AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASCENT
   AHEAD OF SUBTLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING STORMS LATER TODAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS…WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A
   FEW CLUSTERS/LINES PERSISTING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
   DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
  
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ND/NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  REGION REMAINS UNDER
   INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WITH RESULTANT DRY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER…ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF DIGGING IMPULSE FOR
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   INTO THE EVENING.  SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SD
   OVERNIGHT AND MAY FEED ELEVATED TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF MN WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/11/2009

2009 Hurricane Season Forecast. Will Global Warming Reduce The Number of Hurricanes? May 20, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season begins in less than two weeks.  Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives.  7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly.  Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season.   The most ferocious  for the US was Hurricane Ike  and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos.  The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes.  The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about.  People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992.  Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since. 

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project.   This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes.  There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes.  This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino is being anticipated as the season unfolds.  It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming.  However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes.  In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity in recent years.  Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world.   So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

 Last year,   A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite.  Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did.  Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study.  This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

Hey, it’s going to do what its going to do, whatever the cause.   We currently have a system that has been traversing the Florida Peninsula bringing welcome rain.  For several days, the National Hurricane Center has been threatening to send out a Hurricane Hunter to investigate even though they admitted the chances of it turning tropical was minimal.  They keep cancelling the flights and have now said that they will stop making special reports.  However, it will be interesting to see what they will do in the coming days as the models suggest the low will move into the middle of the Gulf and not along the Gulf Coast, as previously indicated.  It remains progged to be around a 1008 mb low, which is below standard sea level pressure but not all that low.  It will give the boys at the NHC something to talk about and use as a PR tool as we head into the hurricane season, which starts June 1.

NAM Fri Eve has 1006 mb low in Gulf

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY…AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION…LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

Good Weekend For a Cruise on the Belle of Louisville

Weather Bottom Line:

  The ridge continues to hang out and will do so through the weekend.  Shower activity will be supressed and the temperatures will elevate into the mid 80′s as we move through the end of the week into the weekend. Enjoy it.  Snow White and I are going on a bike ride this afternoon.  Yesterday we saw Star Trek and she liked it so much, she wanted to see it again….like right then.  Never knew she was a trekkie.  It was good though.  I love McCoy and Scotty.  They have some great lines.

Rain Outbreak Ahead-Let’s Hope There’s Not Another Flu Outbreak; Hundreds Still Missing From Hurricane Ike October 23, 2008

Rainfall Forecast Thu-Sat

Friday will be Lousy: I’ve been telling you that for days and its still in the cards. We have upped the temperatures on Thursday to the upper 60′s to near 70. But then the shortwave comes over the top of us. While we won’t have the blizzard warnings they’ve had in the plains, it will be quite chilly and wet. We feel like that the heaviest rain may be over for the Friday night football games but it will still be raining to some degree and it will be chilly…probably upper 40′s and low 50′s. The showers gradually end on Saturday but it will still be chilly. Sunday remains the pick of the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60′s before another strong system dives down. That will bring some light rain early Monday but, more significantly, much colder air. We probably won’t get out of the 40′s on Monday and look for the first area-wide freeze of the season early in the week. With these up and down temperatures, I hope you got your flu shots .(See Below This Date In History)

Still Searching For Victims of Ike

Hurricane Ike Still Has Missing persons: Hurricane Ike is a curious thing when related to news reporting. It kinda went away pretty quickly, didn’t it? Did you know that Hurricane Ike is now estimated to be the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew? Did you know that there remains some 300 people unaccounted for? The presidential election and the financial meltdown grabbed the headlines but you would think that the national media would make some effort to inform we Americans of the travails of so many of our countrymen. Ask yourself why this has not received more national attention. Here is a list of 147 people missing (some with photos) from the Houston Chronicle and 96 names of missing as compiled by the Laura Recovery center in Galveston. Many I fear are gone. You can see that at least one of the people listed was last seen on the Galveston Seawall. If you can help in locating the whereabouts or fate of these folks, please call. Remember, all of these people have families who want to know what happened to their loved ones. These lists are not complete as they do not include people missing in parts of SE Texas and SW Louisiana.

On This Date in History: In 1918, World War I (The Great War) was winding down. The Americans had gotten into the game and helped turn the tide against the Hun. About 15-20 Million people died in that

Death Chart From Spanish Flu

global conflict. But, toward the end of the war, another killer was unleashed. What has been called the Spanish Flu Pandemic took about 50 million lives world wide according to the CDC with some estimates as high as 100 million. It got the moniker “Spanish Flu” because it reportedly took 8 million lives in that country in May 1918. However, the origin of the flu is a bit murky and it probably was not Spain. Indeed, researchers today are still trying to learn more about it. A couple of sources claim that it started at Fort Riley, Kansas when a soldier became sick just prior to his shipping out to Europe in March 1918. But, a more reliable source (Stanford University) claims that the virus probably became mutated in China into a strain that was resistant to any treatment. While one of the first cases in the US was the soldier who went to Europe from Fort Riley, Kansas it wasn’t until August 18, 1918 that the killer strain came to the shores of the new world. The Norwegian Liner Bergensfjord arrived in Brooklyn with a full load of passengers, including 100 who became ill on the voyage. Four of those had died and a fifth died after the ship docked making that pour sole the first US death from the Spanish Flu.

Spanish Flu Ward 1918

In the fall and spring, people in the US were dying daily. One day in Philadelphia, 528 people died and the bodies were collected by horse drawn carts. On “Black Thursday” in Chicago, nearly 400 died. Schools and theatres were closed and it was common to see people wearing face masks. On October 23, 1918, 815 people died from the flu in New York City. The war was certainly an aspect of the world situation that sped up the spread of the virus. Many allies thought it was some sort of biological warfare set loose by the Germans. Curiously, the end of the war in November 1918 may have hastened its spread as people took to the streets to congregate and party to celebrate, thus raising the prospcts of it going from person to person. In the US, the deathtoll has been set between 650,000 and 700,000.

Here’s the kicker…no one knows why this flu was so fatal. It affected about 1/3 of the total world

Victims Removed From Quarrentine House In St. Louis 1918

population. Even President Wilson came down with it. Recently, tissue from a dead soldier who died from the virus was collected in an attempt to better understand it. Mysteriously, the flu pandemic ended abruptly in 1919….though some sources claim 1920. Either way, it came and went and nothing has come close to it again in scale and scope of the suffering it brought. In the US alone, the life expectancy statistics fell by 10 years. Because of the mystery of the Spanish Flu pandemic relating to the virus itself, its origin, its spread and its disappearance, researchers today are quite concerned about something new, like the bird flu. It is the reason why such drastic measures were taken to try to stop any hint of the bird flu in Asia before it could get into the human population and why it remains such a concern today.

Hurricane Ike Oil Spills? Rain Gauges to be Filled? Women Strip-Searched for Thrills? Cuban Joan of Arc Release Fulfilled? October 6, 2008

HPC Rain Forecast For Wed Oct 8, 2008

If you can’t have the rain you need, you may as well have a great weekend and we certainly had that. Now, its down to business and we’ll see if we can’t get some rain in here. A large, complex storm system is plodding across the nation and will bring some much needed relief by midweek. Look for some high clouds early Monday with the passage of a warm front then just some friendly white puffies in the afternoon with mid 80′s. Tuesday will be similar except we become mostly cloudy late. A few showers may develop Tuesday night and then more general rainfall can be expected with a few t’storms possible on Wednesday. Most of the showers should be out of the area by midday Thursday but the clouds will hang around. I suspect that most people will get a half to 3/4 inches of rain out of this event. Temperatures for those two days will be held down due to the clouds but the mercury will move back above seasonal levels for the latter part of the week into next weekend as the air behind the front is more pacific in nature rather than Canadian. The rain we get won’t require the building of an ark, but should bring some relief to everyone.

Gulf Production Platform After Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike Environmental Concerns: Now, Hurricane Ike went over much of the nation’s offshore oil producing concerns and affected a good chunk of the national refining capacity. One can expect some environmental affects. In relation to the number of facitilites affected adversely by extreme weather, the spills were really remarkably little. However, once again, the media insists on hyping things. Notice in the article below from the Associated Press how they say 500,000 gallons, and not 11,900 barrels. (I’ve commented on this before) On the one hand, everyone knows what a gallon is but not as many know what constitutes a barrel. Yet, the media routinely reports oil usage and production in the industry standard of barrels. In recent years, reporters have gone to gallons when reporting oil spills…its 42 times bigger when you use gallons instead of barrels. Anyway, the article begins with saying over a half millions gallons of oil were spilled. Then you read farther and find that there were nearly 450 instances, which is an average of 1100 gallons. Then you read that in the Gulf of Mexico, of the 50 platforms damaged, there was one leakage of oil…One…and it was of 8400 gallons. Kinda gets your attention, until you do the math and find its 200 barrels. 200 is not as sexy as 8400. They try to put in perspective and scare you even more when they say the amount is enough to fill an olympic sized swimming pool. But, considering the amount of oil production and refining facilities affected…that seems like a pretty good track record to me. Read the article HERE and you decide for yourself. In some instances it’s significant, but not as much as they want you to believe.

On This Date In History: In the late 19th Century, newspaper mogul William Randolph Hearst was in a pitched battle for circulation with the Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World. Hearst knew that a war would increase his circulation but the trouble was there was no war. So, when rebels in Cuba started making noise against the Spanish, who were in control of Cuba at the time, Hearst’s New York Journal sent illustrator Frederic Remington to cover the revolution. But Remington no sooner had arrived than he asked to come home because there was no war. Hearst reportedly fired off a message that read, “Please Remain. You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war.”

A Hearst biographer described the tiny rebel faction as an “unkempt mob of brave but disorganized bushwhackers” who had no chance unless they got American help. So, Hearst lent a hand by printing any rebel propaganda that he could find. Remington sent back a graphic drawing of a naked woman being searched and leered at by 3 Spaniards. The Journal’s headline read, “DOES OUR FLAG PROTECT WOMEN?” The Spanish authorities had boarded an American ship and searched 3 Cuban women who were suspected of carrying rebel messages. The photo and the story served to rile up Americans. Trouble was, when the ladies got to New York, they told a reporter from the New York World that women had searched the women in privacy….a little fact that the Journal neglected to tell and Remington’s fantasy illustration did not reveal. Perhaps a more honest headline would have been “Does our Flag Protect Women Who Are Alleged Cuban Spies Hiding on American Ships in Cuban Ports?”

Cuban Joan of Arc or Rebel Leader

That wasn’t the first time that Hearst had altered reality. Prior to that, On This Date in 1897 Hearst scored another coup when he gained the release of the “Cuban Joan of Arc.” Here name was Evangenlina Cisneros and she had been put in prison for trying to kidnap a Spanish military officer. Cisneros claimed that she was trying to repel the man’s advances. Hearst made a big deal out of it and got the support of leaders of American women’s groups. When the Journal sent a reporter, the Spanish released the woman, perhaps in an attempt to quiet American unrest. How does this add up? As it turns out, Cisneros was the beautiful daughter of a rebel leader who was arrested. Evangelina pleaded with the authorities to have her father, she and her sister banished to the penal institution on the Isle of Pines off Cuba’s Southwest coast. Her beauty helped charm, first the general in charge’s son and then the general himself to comply. The Spanish version of the event is that the woman was luring a colonel into her room for the purpose of assaulting him. The girl’s version is that the colonel was trying to blackmail her into becoming her mistress and the other prisoners jumped him to protect her. Nevertheless, Hearst painted a portrait of an innocent young girl being cruelly imprisoned. Here’s the COMPLETE STORY.

The press has great power and today, as then, the press has the power to sway public opinion and shape elections and the general feeling of the country by what they report…and what they don’t report. I’d encourage you to snoop about for yourself and don’t let the press dictate your thoughts.

Anyway, as we know, Hearst got his way eventually when a few years later the USS Maine exploded in Cuban waters. Hearst was quick to blame a Spanish plot and the Americans bought it. Off to war we went, Teddy Roosevelt led his “Rough Riders” and Admiral Dewey led his fleet and the Spanish American War was over in short order with Spain giving up Cuba and the Philippines. Cuba was independent until Fidel Castro took over in 1959 and the result of the Philippines was a protracted effort by America to put down insurgents…a story that is, by the way, a much better comparison to Iraq than Vietnam ever was…its just that today’s reporters don’t know their history so they try the poor comparison with Vietnam. So far, it appears the efforts in Iraq are going much better than they did in the Philippines…but that’s another story…and HERE IT IS

Some Who Stayed For Hurricane Ike, Did Not Survive; Hundreds Still Missing In Texas May Never Be Found October 5, 2008

Bolivar Peninsula From Satellite Directly After Ike

The above photo is from a satellite just after the passage of Hurricane Ike. This one is on section of Bolivar Peninsula just east of Galveston Bay. There is a site (CLICK HERE) that allows you to click on a map to very specific areas that were affected by Ike. They are visible images like the one above taken just after the storm passed and they go from Louisiana to and past Houston. I have more on the stories of victims of Hurricane Ike and also an image of the damage to the coastline nearly two weeks following Ike further down this post. Check out the sat images and read the stories. They will leave you shaking your head.

The weather in Louisville remains on track. Great weather will persist for the St. James Art Show. It was always known as the “art fair” but the website now calls it the “art show.” If you know why they changed it, someone let me know. Anyway, cool nights and warm afternoons until the middle of the week when we get a shot at some much needed rain Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures behind the front will not be all that cool so if you liked the fall weather, be patient, I’m sure it will come again….just not in the next week.

LA/TX Coastal Damage 12 Days After Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike Follow-UP: Nearly two weeks following the landfall of Hurricane Ike, satellite images (above) reveal the coastal destruction from the wide storm surge of Ike. Normally, the region along the coast would be green. In this case, the areas of brown reveal mud, sand and dying vegetation along almost the entire Louisiana Coast and Texas Coast from Galveston to New Orleans. Part of the SE Louisiana Coast also got slammed by Hurricane Gustav so that area got a head start. While the storm made landfall at the mouth of Galveston Bay, some of the highest storm surge readings came from around the mouth of the Sabine River marking the Louisiana/Texas border. Parts of SW Louisiana experienced a higher and more devastating storm surge than they had with Hurricane Rita in 2005. For some reason, some people in Galveston used Hurricane Rita as a measuring stick to determine whether or not to leave their homes. Rita was a stronger storm but made landfall way east of Galveston, leaving that part of the Texas coast with an offshore flow and no real surge. Hurricane Ike was much farther west and areas spared by Rita were hammered by Ike and many people made the wrong decision.

If you recall, thousands of people did not evacuate from Galveston with the approach of Hurricane Ike. I have told you that in my opinion, had the storm been say 20 miles farther west and a little stronger, then the death toll would have been staggering. There have been many stories of survivors who barely escaped with their lives. Several did not. At this time, the Laura Recovery Center says that about 300 remain missing 3 weeks after the storm. No one has heard a thing. Perhaps some will suffer the fate of being swept out to sea never to be seen again. Others may be found in marshes miles from where they had been. Others may be safe but in hiding or still others just not thoughtful enough to tell their loved ones that they are okay. But, here is a story that will break your heart. Several tales of those who refused to leave for one stubborn reason or another and who paid with their lives. I’m telling you…the thousands that stayed…if they do so again…they may suffer the same fate. Galveston is nothing but a sandbar and it doesn’t take much for the Gulf of Mexico to swallow the whole island. I love hurricanes and I love Galveston. Because I know them both so well, I would have left. I suspect that those who did stay and survived, now know that next time they too will leave. Read some of the sad tales below.

Associated Press(with video and slideshow)-Tales of those who perished

Houston Chronicle-In Memoriam:Remembering the Victims of Ike

KHOU Houston(with video)-Search for Victims intensifies

WNBC-Hurricane Ike US Death toll up to 67

Iraq Gains Independence, November Gets a Holiday and a Hurricane Season Forecast October 3, 2008

Sea Surface Temperatures Oct 2, 2008

No change in the forecast which means no rain but pretty good weather. Our cooldown, as previously indicated, will not be long lasting. As I had suggested several days ago, I was not surprised to see outlying areas in the upper 30′s to near 40 on Wednesday night. I was a bit surprised at temperatures near freezing in low lying lake areas, though. Thursday night, look for something similar and then we go into a warming phase. Mid 70′s Fri, Upper 70′s Sat, Low 80′s Sun, mid 80′s much of the week ahead.

2008 Hurricane Forecast-Revised Aug

2008 Hurricane Season: Hurricane season ends November 30 and began June 1. Those great prognosticators of hurricanes had suggested a season of well above average numbers of storms. In May the government forecast was for 12-16 storms and then in August, they bumped it up to 14-18 storms with 7-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. All I can say is that the currently quiet North Atlantic better hurry up. So far, there have been 12 named storms. Laura was a “sub-tropical” storm and then was a tropical storm for a cameo appearance and then it went away. But, it still counts. Six of the 12 have been classified as a hurricane with Ike and Gustav as major storms. For the record, there is an average of 11 named storms with six becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a cat 3 or higher. There is nothing out there on the horizon except for an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean. However, sea surface temperatures are plenty warm enough to support tropical cyclone activity from Africa all the way to the Texas coast.

CLICK HERE for a very interesting loop of Hurricane Ike. It is a series of graphics showing the windfield as it moved across the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico and inland through Texas. You can see the way the windfield expanded as it went into the Gulf. From this link, you will have access to other loops.

for a whole mess of photos and video relating to hurricane ike, CLICK HERE and scroll through the September 2008 archive.

Not the 1st Thanksgiving?

On This Date In History: We’ve all enjoyed Thanksgiving Dinner and we all probably learned in grade school that the first Thanksgiving involved the Pilgirms and the native Indians of North America. But, the real first official Thanksgiving Holiday was proclaimed on this date in 1863 by President Lincoln, calling for an annual day of national Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday of November. The president used the opportunity to thank the Union Army for the reversal of fortune in the Union effort by the victory at Gettysburg. President Washington had declared a “national day of thanksgiving and prayer” in 1789, but it didn’t become an annual event. In fact, Thomas Jefferson thought that such national events of demonstration towards a deity was not appropriate. Other presidents agreed until President Lincoln’s decree. President Franklin Roosevelt tried what I call a political move in 1939 when he moved the holiday to the third Thursday. However, I suppose its plausible to argue that Lincoln’s initial declaration was rooted in politics. Anyway, FDR was hoping to extend the Christmas shopping season. I guess he thought that by moving Thanksgiving he could pull the wool over American’s eyes and use the psychology of calling a different day Thanksgiving to get them to spend more money. Anyway, Congress had enough of the foolishness and in 1941 put the national holiday back to where President Lincoln put it in the first place.

A book on the Subject

On This Date in 1932 Iraq gained independence. The region had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire, which dissolved at the conclusion of World War I. Britain occupied the area and was given a League of Nations mandate to govern the region in 1920. They set up a monarchy and granted independence in 1932. That government maintained strong military and economic ties with Britain and that resulted in numerous protests. In 1941, a pro-Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) movement took hold and the UK intervened causing the Iraqi government to agree to back the good guys in the war. The monarchy got over thrown in 1958 and for the next 20 years, Iraq was ruled by a series of civilian and military governments until Saddam Hussein became dictator in 1979….a position he held until 2003. Saddam has since left to try to rule another world. However, from its 20th century history, its easy to see why there are skeptics that a democracy can flourish in the region. But, the global political situation is not as it was nor is the politics of the region so one cannot use history as a prescription for the future.

People Won’t Leave After Hurricane Ike; Women Told To Take a Hike September 18, 2008

Ike Raising the Dead?

The aftermath of hurricane Ike is unfolding like a typical big storm in a large metropolitan area. President Bush came to inspect the region and the mayor of Houston is mad at FEMA saying that it is not moving fast enough. Residents are having problems returning home. The east side of Galveston Bay, which is Bolivar Peninsula that has Crystal Beach and Gilchrist, has been largely wiped from the map. In fact, it is said that the water cut through the peninsula and it is now an island. Many people chose to ride out the storm and now they won’t leave. Prior to the storm, the government said that under Texas law, a mandatory evacuation order does not give the government the right to force someone from their property. Texans are big on property rights. Now, they have people who still refuse to leave and officials are concerned about disease and the difficulties associated with providing any service to those people. Now, they are scouring the law books trying to find a way to forceably remove those individuals who won’t leave. I can tell you now, that ain’t gonna work.  National Geographic reports Ike will cost $22 Billion.

At the bottom of the post, you will find links to more photos. Thebostonchannel.com has an interesting set of photos, the first showing a family visiting their dead mother and father…who have resurfaced courtesy of Ike.

Meanwhile, in Louisville by Wednesday afternoon about 180,000 customers remain without power.  Jefferson County (Louisville) Schools will be closed for the rest of the week.  The Governor came through by getting the EPA to relax the reformulated gas restrictions for a couple of weeks.  I wonder if prices will come down a few cents.  The clean up continues but everything is fine and dandy for the Ryder Cup where folks from all over the world are lining up for the big golf tournament. The weather will be outstanding with loads of sunshine with cool nights and warm afternoons. While a few visitors may not have power at the home they rented or maybe a hotel or two, the course is in great shape. Also, they managed to find power for Papa John’s Stadium for the UL/ Kansas State Football game….and the ESPN crews I’m sure are in fine shape.  Meanwhile, Snow White and I are heading toward our 4th night without power.  I think the items in the refrigerator are quite ripe by now.  I had leftovers from last nights restaurant meal…nothing like taking a doggy bag for the next day’s lunch.  Meanwhile, the fat cats, Nit and Wit, enjoyed Filet of Salmon.  The cats’ food is starting to look pretty good.  Here is some RAW VIDEO FROM SUNDAY as the wind was beginning to relax in Louisville.
On This Date in History:  When President Woodrow Wilson decided it was time that America get involved in the Great War, the military draft was brought back.  Millions of men either volunteered or were drafted into the ranks, leaving a gap in many civilian services.  In the early 20th Century, women who did work were usually employed as school teachers or seamstresses and perhaps in textile sweat shops.  Men made up the vast majority of the labor force.  So, that meant that public services such as mass transit were in jeopardy when all the men ran off to fight the Hun.  In 1917, the New York and Queens Railroad began hiring women to run its trolley.  By 1918, twenty-five “conductorettes” could be found on the lines in Queens.  A newspaper said that the ladies were doing such a splendid job that a few had been appointed as inspectors.  The railroad was so happy with their work that it supplied them with $17 winter overcoats and doubled their pay to $25 a week.  They then made a commitment to keep them on the payroll after the war was over.  Management said, “The women conductors have come to stay  on our lines just as long as they want to continue in their present jobs.  We now have about 50 and are taking more on as fast as they apply for positions.”  It’s good to get promises in writing. 

In May 1919, New York Governor Al Smith decided to be Mr. Helper and perhaps he was in cahoots with railroad management who wanted to back out of their commitment but needed some cover.  So Big Al signed a bill to “better the conditions of women.”  It was the kind of help the ladies could have done without.  The bill mandated that women could only work 54 hours a week.  Men of course, were able to work longer hours.  So, on this date in 1919, management of the New York and Queens Railroad prepared the pink slips for all of their female employees who were to work their last day on September 20, 1919.  But, they did get to keep the overcoats.

Guardian UK Hurricane Ike Aftermath Photos

WCVB  The Boston Channel

Spreadit photos

Hurricane Ike Damage Fantastic Photos; Louisville Area Damage; No More Fun Around the Maypole! September 17, 2008

Not So Fun If the Wave Washes The Kid Into The Gulf

Check Out the Background Waves

snoop through this post for some great sources for photos and video; scroll to previous posts for other links

While the above photo is pretty cool, it also shows the stupidity of people.  The waves were breaking over the seawall and it made for a fun time in Galveston before Ike arrived.  But, it is no fun getting washed off the seawall and into an angry ocean. That’s precisely what happened in Corpus Christi.  I have not heard if the young man’s body was ever recovered.  If you look at the LA Times slideshow, you will see one photo of a woman smiling after she terrorized her young child by taking her to the edge of the rough surf.  Nuts.  Check out the photo at the left where some folks were getting rescued before the storm hit….look at the size of the waves crashing on the beach behind them.  That is pretty wild for Galveston which is normally a pretty tranquil beach.  Not exactly a surfer’s paradise.

Here is an abolutely fabulous slide show from the Boston Globe (28 photos) some of the photos you have seen before but the clarity of these is just fantastic.  i have reproduced one of the just to the right.  It’s in a thumbnail but you have to open it.  It shows Gilchrist, Texas which is on Bolivar Peninsula a few miles to the east of the Galveston Bay entrance.  You can see that the houses have

Gilchrist, Texas-Wiped Clean

 been wiped clean.  It is obvious from these pictures and the gouges in the land from the water rushing back to sea that these guys got kicked in the teeth by the big storm surge, perhaps not just a rise of water but a rush.  This is why I have said that I suspect that had Ike been about 20 miles farther west and just a little stronger, then it is very likely that Galveston would be facing a huge calamity.  As it was, I am have seen published reports that parts of downtown Galveston (along the Strand) had 6 feet of water and I have been told that is some places it was 12 feet.  That is water coming from the bay side, not the front side of the island with the sea wall. You need to install the HD program but this is a link to some GREAT HD images from Galveston, et al.

Anchorage Area of Louisville

I’m thinking that there must be power issues all up Ike’s path.  From Houston to

Louisville Boat Club

 Dayton, there are about 9 cities that are not being counted in the Nielson ratings because of a lack of data…the power is out so the meters have nothing to read.  The Ohio Valley got it a little more than other areas because, as the storm came through near midday, the winds aloft were howling.  The sun had broken out and we got heating up to the upper 80′s. That allowed the winds aloft to mix down to the surface.  As of Tuesday, a little less than 200,000 customers are without power, most of it residential.  Snow White and I walked about the neighborhood on Monday night and found that people didn’t sit around and wait for someone

Taylorsville Rd-Louisville

else to clean up their area.  They got themselves out and cleared blocked streets and cut

Scottsburg Indiana

 up downed trees on their own.  Pretty remarkable  but good to see self-reliance. I’ve posted some photos of Louisville-area damage via the NWS (more photos) that includes some sunken boats on the river.  On the other hand, we still have reports of stupid fights over boxes of cereal at the store or fighting in gas lines…then there is the fight over a taco at Taco Bell.  The mayor still insists that there is no looting.  Aside from finding a way to eat, the power outage isn’t that much of a big deal.  No TV or no computer. The phone company has my phone working again and our weather is great with lows in the 50′s and highs in the 70′s.  We’ll move to the low to mid 80′s for the weekend and the Ryder Cup but humidity is low and will stay that way.  Snow White made me a peanut butter sandwhich with that stuff that is a mixture of peanut butter and jelly.  I’ve never had it before. I bet I won’t like it but one can’t complain.  Meanwhile, the cats are dining on their Salmon and Tuna.  Nit and Wit are eating better than I am.  Here is a report with aerial video including Valhalla with some of the damage.

On This Date In History: Thomas Morton was an English lawyer who arrived in the Massachusetts Colony in 1625 as part of a number of people who settled about 25 miles from Plymouth near present day Quincy.    The rather stern “Puritan Saints” had landed at Plymouth a few years earlier and thought of New England as a “hideous and desolate wildnerness full of wild beasts and wild men!”  I’m sure that’s what some present day visitors from rural America might think about San Francisco.  But really, I’m not sure what the Puritans expected to find…Ye Olde Malt Shoppe on every corner?  Anyway, Morton wasn’t so dour as he thought the land was “paradise” and that he found the Indians to be “more full of humanity” than the Christians who had gotten there before him…in other words…the Puritan Saints. 

Raising the Maypole

The leader of the group near Quincy left for the milder climate of Virginia and Morton and a dozen cohorts took advantage by throwing out the second in command, releasing the indentured servants and going about exploiting the fruits of their paradise.  They renamed the place Merry Mount and in 1627 reintroduced “revels of merriment after the olde English cutom.”  They put up a maypole and invited the neighboring Indians to join in a days-long  fertility rite with lots of beer flowing, dancing and amenities of erotic nature.    Perhaps not suprisingly, Merry Mount became quite popular with fur traders.  Guess whose business suffered?  The grumpy old puritans, who thought that such mingling with the natives and their “wickedness” would undermine their own resolve which was so rigid that “unseemly laughter” was prohibited, not to mention any sort of revelry.  I guess their resolve wasn’t so resolute as they were afraid others having fun would spoil their grumpiness.  So, in an attempt to revive their own flailing fur trade and make certain that everyone was grumpy, the Puritans sent a group of armed me to Merry Mount and make it not so merry.  They captured Morton and left him on an island.  They put him on a boat back to England to face charges of selling guns and spirits to the Indians but the Mother Country wouldn’t prosecute.  So, in 1629 Morton went back to Merry Mount .

Chopping Down the Maypole

Puritan leaders John Winthrop and John Endicott hailed his return by cutting down his Maypole and on this date in 1630 put Morton in the stocks and seized his property.  Then they exiled him to England and burned down his house.  Again, the English courts refused to prosecute but Morton was thwarted at his attempt to get the charter for the Massachusetts Bay Colony revoked.  For some stupid reason, Morton returned to where he was obviously not welcome and was thrown in irons without fire or blankets.  Finally, when they determined that he was “old and crazy” Winthrop had Morton released.  What a great guy.  Morton died in 1646.  The moral to this story is if you want to pursue a life of merriment in the face of great grumpiness, make certain that you and your merry makers are better armed than the grumps.

Hurricane Ike Damage-Very Close Call for Galveston September 14, 2008

6-8 Hours BEFORE the storm

for more hurricane ike damage photos and aerial video of damage, CLICK HERE and scroll down to numerous posts with various links to photos and video

As you may have noticed in my posts or bio, I am from Houston. I know the area backwards and forwards. I even used to to airborne traffic reports in the area. From the still photos and from stories, it would seem to moe that Galveston and all those people who stayed barely avoided an enormous catastrophe. As it was, ther are numerous stories of people waking to rising water in their homes and having to swim or wade out. Some of these stories are very dramatic. But, no one has heard from the West End of the Island. There is no seawall there. I really thought that there was no way anyone stayed down there but apparently some did. But, if you check out these slide shows that I got from several sources, you see that near downtown Houston, Buffalo Bayou rose very high. The flooding in those pictures I do not believe was caused by rain but instead a storm surge. If you look at Crystal Beach, which is on Bolivar Peninsula jutting out from the east into the mouth of Galveston Bay, it would appear that parts of the beach were wiped clean…it would appear that the houses are all gone and you see runoff lines gouged in the ground. That is the beginning of the area that would have gotten the most extreme and violent storm surge, just to the east of the center in the eastern eyewall. I betcha on the west end there are inlets that have been carved in the island.

Photos will show that I-45 south is totally covered by debris. It appears those photos come from near the Hwy 6 intersection with I-45 which is still a fair piece inland. I really believe that had this storm been a shade stronger and made landfall 20 miles farther west, then this story may have been far different.

NYTIMES Slide show

AP SLIDE SHOW-via yahoo

Here are a whole mess of blogs with lots of posts. Not only will you find people’s stories and if you scroll through you will find video and photos…worth the snooping.

Houston Chronicle

Houston Chronicle Reader’s Photo Gallery

More Photos from Houston

More Galveston Photos

Hurricane Ike Rescue photos

BBC Slide Show

CNN Link Video-Some Live shots(as of 4pm EDT 0914)

The Morning After Ike September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 1345Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite 1345 0913

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0913 1345Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike with damage photos and video CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it moves through Texas, CLICK HERE. Navigate from the Ohio Valley default and go to street level anywhere in the nation. Add clouds and/or lightning and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0913

Really, not much to say. Ike is inland and moving quickly toward North Texas. So far, Ike was difficult and dangerous and caused great problems in the Golden Triangle of SE Texas and also SW Louisiana. It caused damage in Galveston and Houston. World Famous Brennans in Houston burned to the ground. But, it would appear that the turn north just prior to landfall limited the storm surge damage as the greatest surge was in much less populated areas of the coast except for Port Arthur.

Now, the national problem aside from the insurance buisness, which before sunrise was predicting claims second only to Katrina (how they know that before they can

3 Day Rainfall Forecast 12Z Sat thru 12Z Tue

see I don’t know), will be the petroleum and chemical supply. Power outages in the

Texas Natural Gas Pipelines

area could last for a very long time. That could affect the start up of refineries. Storm surges may have affected some refineries. 23% of the refining capacity of the US is on the Houston Ship Channel and it seems to have done its job as it stretches inland 44 miles and helps protect interests along the waterway and in the Port of Houston. Nevertheless, there may be damage. There are many other refineries and

Severe Storm Outlook 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun

chemical plants from west of Galveston through Port Arthur to Lake Charles that could be damaged or also disrupted. I’m sure you know in your town right now, gasoline prices have risen. In some areas there may be shortages as, the distribution network is disrupted. Not only are the refineries in SE Texas, but also the greatest grid of natural gas pipe line in the nation. Louisiana and Texas have natural gas all over the place and Texas has over 43,000 miles of pipeline. Those pipes were shut down. Until they are restarted and transmitting natural gas, there may be shortages and higher prices. The price rise will probably be difficult for a month.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR…SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. HOWEVER…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY… ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER…THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE’S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…UNFORTUNATELY…ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS…WESTERN LOUISIANA…AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT…AS WILL CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 31.0N 95.3W 70 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W 45 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER STEWART