The Morning After Ike September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 1345Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite 1345 0913

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0913 1345Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike with damage photos and video CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it moves through Texas, CLICK HERE. Navigate from the Ohio Valley default and go to street level anywhere in the nation. Add clouds and/or lightning and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0913

Really, not much to say. Ike is inland and moving quickly toward North Texas. So far, Ike was difficult and dangerous and caused great problems in the Golden Triangle of SE Texas and also SW Louisiana. It caused damage in Galveston and Houston. World Famous Brennans in Houston burned to the ground. But, it would appear that the turn north just prior to landfall limited the storm surge damage as the greatest surge was in much less populated areas of the coast except for Port Arthur.

Now, the national problem aside from the insurance buisness, which before sunrise was predicting claims second only to Katrina (how they know that before they can

3 Day Rainfall Forecast 12Z Sat thru 12Z Tue

see I don’t know), will be the petroleum and chemical supply. Power outages in the

Texas Natural Gas Pipelines

area could last for a very long time. That could affect the start up of refineries. Storm surges may have affected some refineries. 23% of the refining capacity of the US is on the Houston Ship Channel and it seems to have done its job as it stretches inland 44 miles and helps protect interests along the waterway and in the Port of Houston. Nevertheless, there may be damage. There are many other refineries and

Severe Storm Outlook 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun

chemical plants from west of Galveston through Port Arthur to Lake Charles that could be damaged or also disrupted. I’m sure you know in your town right now, gasoline prices have risen. In some areas there may be shortages as, the distribution network is disrupted. Not only are the refineries in SE Texas, but also the greatest grid of natural gas pipe line in the nation. Louisiana and Texas have natural gas all over the place and Texas has over 43,000 miles of pipeline. Those pipes were shut down. Until they are restarted and transmitting natural gas, there may be shortages and higher prices. The price rise will probably be difficult for a month.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR…SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. HOWEVER…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY… ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER…THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE’S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…UNFORTUNATELY…ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS…WESTERN LOUISIANA…AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT…AS WILL CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 31.0N 95.3W 70 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W 45 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Ike Continues To Produce Remarkable Surge September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 1915Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate to street level, add clouds and lightning(though there probably won’t be much of that) and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Rainbow IR Satellite Image 1945Z 0912

Hurricane Ike does not have a well formed center…it is very large….60 miles wide.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0912 5PM

It doesnt have a true eyewall but is just huge. That means a couple of things. It shouldn’t get much stronger than what it is. But, it also means that the windfield remains huge with hurricane force winds extending 120 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 275 miles outward. In the report below, they report parts of Galveston have seen a 9 foot rise in the tides and the storm is still at least 12 hours away. I think the broadness of the circulation also means that the storm surge not only will be very high to the east of landfall and not only extend way to the east as far as significant storm surge, even west

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 18Z

of the storm should see a pretty good rise. The water is getting pushed ahead like a big ship and the wake

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 1945Z 0912

ahead has no where to go but up the coast. These water rise reports, well ahead of the storm are eerily similar to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Galveston Island is now cut off from the mainland and will probably continue to be inaccessible until Saturday afternoon.

The mission to rescue a freighter 90 miles south of Galveston has been aborted.

A Shell Oil Company rig located at 27.55 N and 92.49 west at 3:15 CDT reported

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 18Z

sustained winds at 91 kts. However, its been reporting the same wind speed and identical data for several hours and I suspect it has been damaged.

Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Probability 0912 5PM

It is a very good thing that Ike is not more intense but the broadness of the windfield poses quite a problem. If you look at the storm surge probability map, you notice that the 70% probability of a surge of greater than 5 feet extends all the way up the Houston Ship Channel….44 miles…then up Buffalo Bayou into west Houston and up the San Jacinto River into East Houston. Both of those locations are well inland and the 30% probability extends well off those waterways.

Power outages will be enormous and long lasting. Damage in Houston should

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field 0912 5PM

probably be similar to Alicia in 1983. There is the real chance that Galveston Island may be completely covered by the Gulf of Mexico. The east side of Galveston Bay will be highly susceptible to a very large water rise. High Island will prove not to be too high and surges into the Port Arthur region will be significant. Earlier today, Lake Charles….all the way up to I-10 had a water rise of over 3 feet and that was this morning. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect all the way to north of Dallas to the Red River. I have no idea why the spaghetti model intensity graph has so many models increasing the winds after landfall.

I’ve heard on the news that up to 50% of Galveston did not evacuate. That may prove to be a grave mistake. If Galveston has the worse case scenario, then the loss of life may be much higher than it should have been. This storm surge will be greater than a typical Cat 2.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER…THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS…AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND…IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION…THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT

12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT

24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Ike Not Intense But Has Serious Muscle September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 1415Z 0912

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Image 1415Z 0912

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate the map to wherever you like all the way to street level. Add clouds and lightning. Hit “animate” to loop.

Louisville: Be prepared for a risk of heavy rain and severe weather on Sunday.

Hurricane Ike to me is a rather interesting storm and continues to be a very odd

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0912

character. On the water vapor image, I see quite a bit of dry air. The circulation that was looking rather symmetrical is no longer a nice circle. The outflow to the west is pretty decent. The pressure from the last hurricane hunter that I saw was 956 mb which is pretty formidable but it has not dropped. This will not be the “big one” but it will be quite a more substantial storm than the intensity might otherwise suggest. The problem with this storm is its physically large structure. The windfield is huge. Hurricane force winds extend 120 miles out and Tropical Storm force winds 270 miles. So, the intensity isn’t huge and may top out around 115 mph. But the potential for damaging winds will be perhaps broader than normally expected from a cat 2/cat

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 1415Z 0912

3 storm. Because the wind field has been so large, a broad area of the ocean is

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 12Z

really whipped up. So, as the storm approaches the coast, the water will have no where to go but up. There is such a strong on-shore flow so far to the east, that the water cannot escape to the sides. So, the storm surge will be much higher than normally expected. Further, the wave action is greatly enhanced. I’ve told you about the seas offshore running about 30 feet. It would not surprise me to see wave heights of 40 feet closer to the coast as it gets closer to shore. The storm is still probably 18 hours from landfall yet, many parts of Galveston and points to the west are flooded. There are many people in Galveston who have not evacuated and that may be a grave mistake. The key continues to be the turn.

I’ve been suggesting all along that if the storm slows and/or the ridge steering it breaks down a shade, then

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 12Z

the storm will turn sooner and miss Galveston to the east. That is still plausible. The storm has slowed a bit. All this guy has to do is move 25 miles east of the current track and the situation on the Houston Ship Channel will be much improved. The current track still calls for a landfall near San Luis pass or the west end of Galveston Island. This would produce a surge up to 20 feet on Galveston, Galveston Bay and the Ship Channel. The spaghetti model is concentrated near the current track on the west side of Galveston. The ECMWF has it SSE of Galveston and turning NNW just to the east of Galveston.

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field 0912 11AM

The seawall in Galveston is 15 feet. The island is cut off at 6 feet. This morning, the winds in Galveston are offshore at just 20-30 mph but the water is crashing over the seawall. In Lake Charles, the water is rising rapidly and they too have a offshore or Northeast wind. I have an observer at Fourchon, LA…south of New Orleans. He reported a 4 foot tide early this morning and the winds were not even coming from the direction that would support his highest tide yet. He said overnight they had a 55 mph gust. What is so ominous to me is that the reports of offshore winds yet rising tides is very reminiscent of the reports from Isaac Cline as the Galveston 1900 hurricane approached. A freighter is disabled in the Gulf and the Coast Guard can’t get to it. In some regard, the actual track makes little difference, particularly for those inland. Also, seas will be quite high and water rises will be extensive, higher than one would normally expect from a storm of this intensity. On the other hand, the track will make a huge difference regarding maximum storm surge because a strike where it is forecast would mean the maximum surge will be in the most concentrated area of oil refineries in the nation. A strike 25 miles east of the forecast will give that region an offshore flow and the surge will be greatly reduced. When you consider that the earth is 25000 miles around and we’re talking about 25 miles, then its such a tiny margin that its impossible to pin point. Either way, the water rise will be extensive all the way to Beaumont and perhaps Cameron, LA.

Rainfall total Forecast 12Z 0912 to 12Z 0915

If I were FEMA, I would not comfortable with so many people remaining on Galveston. Houston will get damage similar to Alicia which was fairly substantial. The affects of this storm will felt over a large area and will have the potential to be quite extensive. As bad as it is, it’s a good thing that Ike has not ramped up.

Parts of the southern plains have gotten 4-7 inches of rain in the last day or so. Ike will bring a real flood threat to the plains and perhaps the Ohio Valley. Fortunately, it should be zipping along by then as it moves along a frontal zone.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM…122 METERS…400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONCE INLAND…IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT

12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT

24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT

36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 15/1200Z…ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Ike Is One Big Odd Dangerous Storm September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 2215Z 0911

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Image 2245Z 0911

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. You can navigate anywhere in the nation to street level. As more of Ike comes in range of the coastal radars, you can track the storms movement. Add clouds or lightning if you like. Click “animate” to loop the image.

Hurricane Ike is a strange bird. It had a very small inner eyewall and the pressure

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 5pm 0911

was running about 945 mb yet the surface winds did not correspond to the pressure. That pressure can easily support 130-140 mph winds. Yet, it never got there. Instead the energy, which is massive, is not concentrated in the middle but instead it has been spread over a large area. Now, the inner core fell apart and the pressure rose to 954 mb before falling again to 950 mb. Still 950 mb can support higher than the current winds. As I stated in the previous post, the pressure gradient must not be a great as normally found in such a tropical cyclone. The NHC refers to a ridge over Texas with sinking air around it that may be inhibiting the storm.

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0911 2245Z

The western side of the storm has been a bit devoid but the latest satellite image

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0911 18Z

indicates to me that its slightly more symmetric and the outflow slightly better. What the NHC does not mention is that the water vapor imagery looks to me to have just a slight bit of dry air inside it. While the spaghetti intensity graph has indicated most models backing off, I wonder how much of that is due to initialization data. It would not surprise me to see this guy spike prior to landfall. The discussion seems to have a hidden bit of a tone that suggests that perhaps the storm is going through some reorganization.

As for the intensity. It’s a case of choosing your poison. On the one hand, you

Hurricane Ike Wind Field and Warnings 0911 5pm

may not have as concentrated winds and therefore not a concentrated area of risk for catastrophic wind damage nor of an area of catastrophic storm surge. On the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0911 18Z

other hand, because the energy is so spread out, you have a very broad area at risk for damaging winds of hurricane force. While there may not be an area of an extreme storm surge, there will be a very broad area of very high to high storm surges. This storm will adversely affect a lot of people because of its shear size. I had said before it hit Cuba that this guy would be a physically large hurricane in the Gulf, but this is even a little more than I bargained for. Nevertheless, again, it would not surprise me if this guy gets pretty strong before landfall.

The track has its share of variables. On the one hand, the size of the storm and

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0911 5PM

wind field makes the point of landfall less critical. On the other hand, because you are talking about a population of over 5.5 million people in the Houston/Galveston area and a concentration of 23% of the nation’s refining capacity just along the Houston Ship Channel, not counting other signficant installations between Houston and Lake Charles and then south of Houston, the landfall makes a big difference. The official track has been shoved a bit farther east..again. I think its safe to say I won the bet with my colleague. Several days ago when the models were pointing at Brownsville, he took Brownsville and 200 miles north. I kept my 100 miles either side of Houston and I still believe that fits…in other words, there is a plausible potential that the storm makes landfall east of Houston/Galveston. it will depend on how it turns around the ridge. Ridge breaks down sooner or the storm goes slower, it goes east. If the storm moves faster or the ridge doesn’t break down so fast, then it goes farther west. The forecast track is the absolute worst for the people of Galveston. As for gasoline prices, its also the worst possible spot for any hurricane any where in the nation. This track would produce the maximum storm surge and highest winds in Galveston Bay as the landfall is near San Luis Pass or Surfside. Should the storm make landfall 40 miles east, suddenly you have an offshore flow and no real storm surge to speak of and the strongest winds are to the east of the Houston Ship Channel, Galveston and Houston as a whole.

3 Day Rainfall Forecast Thu Night(911) Through Sunday Night(914)

Anyway you slice it, this is a potential problem on many many levels. The wind field is broad and the map shows the broad field of hurricane force winds as well as the hurricane warnings, which is a huge expanse of the United States coastline. Another thing to consider. While this storm will be moving quickly after landfall as it moves along a cold front, that front will be crawling across the southern plains. That area will get several inches of rain before the storm ever gets there. Even a fast moving tropical cyclone inland can drop 8-15 inches of rain. That in connection with the pre-Ike rain could bring difficulties well inland…like 500 miles inland.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY…WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT…WHICH ADJUST TO 80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED…AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE ARE ABOUT 100 KT…AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI. AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED…THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO ABOUT 954 MB…BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING…ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD…STRONG WINDS OVER AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF IKE…AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED… CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER…THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF…AND IN THIS CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES…AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT…AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH LANDFALL. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD…A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT…BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI. BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.0N 89.4W 85 KT

12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.6N 90.9W 90 KT

24HR VT 12/1800Z 27.6N 93.0W 95 KT

36HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W 105 KT

48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.5W 65 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 14/1800Z 37.0N 90.5W 30 KT…INLAND

96HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Houston, You DO Have a Problem-Hurricane Ike; Do not let the day pass without Remembering our Fallen Countrymen September 11, 2008

for a more recent udate on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

First of all, take some time today to think of those who are risking and giving their lives in the service of our nation overseas. Think of their courage, pride and duty to country. Also think of those who on this date 7 years ago lost their lives doing nothing more than going to work; living their daily lives. The TV networks won’t show the footage. It is my view we need to see the footage again and again to serve as reminders of what happened to our nation and our countrymen. We should never forget and sometimes I think that many people do.

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 1515Z 0911

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Image 1515Z 0911

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it approaches coastal radar installations, CLICK HERE. Simply navigate to the gulf..even to street level. Click “animate” to loop. Cloud and lightning data is available.

Hurricane Ike is a weirdo. The central pressure is 945 mb which normally could support winds of 130-140 mph. But this guy is not doing that. Instead, its a very large storm with a broader field of strong winds but not the concentration of extreme winds. My guess is that this is because the pressure is low but its spread out over a large area….the gradient is not as steep. The risk here is that if the pressure gradient tightens up, then it could ramp up in intensity and could do so in relatively short order. No one can tell if or when this will happen. Because it is a broad storm, the effects will be felt over a large area. For that reason there is a hurricane warning from Morgan City, LA (SE of New Orleans) to Baffin Bay, Texas which is all the way south

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0911 11AM

of Corpus Christi near the King Ranch. That is a huge swath for a Hurricane Warning which means that hurricane force wind conditions can be expected within 24 hours. A buoy about 75 miles from the center reported gusts over 52 knots and seas of 29.5 feet. This is one of the things that is confounding. For a storm with a pressure so low, that buoy would typically be reporting much higher winds. Anyway, because of the pressure and because there still doesn’t appear to be too many inhibiting factors, the NHC still ramps up the intensity to about 120 mph or so at landfall.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0911 12Z

Landfall is currently expected near Freeport, TX…just SE of Galveston. This is a bad track for Galveston. After the 1900 Galveston Hurricane that wiped Galveston off the map in the biggest natural disaster in the history of the United States, they raised what is essesntially a sandbar 15 feet and built a 15 foot seawall. But, there is still the backside of the island and a rise in the water would fill up the island from the backside. In 1900, the city was literally cut off from the rest of the world. Nothing much has changed. A six foot rise in the tides cuts off the main artery of I-45. 23% of the refining capacity of the entire nation resides on the Houston Ship Channel. The refineries are inland along the 44 mile waterway and

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0911 12Z

are designed to withstand hurricanes of great force. But, there is the issue of a

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0911 11AM

storm surge and of loss of power. Our gas prices rose 30 cents yesterday.

The track remains wholly determined by the ridge that is steering the storm. If it turns sooner than currently forecast, then its not inconceivable that the storm moves east of Houston. That is not really advertised in the modeling data though the 00Z ECMWF has it turn pretty quickly north toward Houston and perhaps just east. The consensus track is concentrated fairly close to the forecast track. But, there remains many variables and the shear size of the storm means that it will have to potential to adversely affect a whole lot of people.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE…CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER…BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65 KT. IN FACT…THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY. FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY…BUT IKE HAS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…CURRENTLY ABOUT 945 MB. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST…IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL…ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS…AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL…WITH IKE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR LANDFALL…WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS…WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS TO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN…GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST…AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.5N 88.4W 85 KT

12HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT

24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W 95 KT

36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W 105 KT

48HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W 100 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W 35 KT…INLAND

96HR VT 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Ike Heading Toward Big Bopper Status September 10, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 2045Z 0910

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0910 5pm

for a more recent update on hurricane ike, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Ike is doing as expected so far and that is for it be become a very

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR 0910 2045Z

expansive hurricane and it continues to re-intensify following its visit to Communist Cuba. While at this time there is a little dry air showing up in the storm and it looks like there is some shear to the west slightly inhibiting the outflow in that region, it should be a Big Bopper of some stature at some point. Its moving slowly at about 8 mph and is moving at 310 degrees which perhaps is a shade more toward the north than initially forecast but still along the northwesterly track that has been favored for this time frame by the National Hurricane Center. The ECMWF has come around to bringing a landfall just west of Galveston near Freeport. This would be the absolute worst track for Galveston and Houston. While this and other models have pushed farther northward with the track, others

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0910 18Z

have not and so the NHC has only continued its trend of just nudging the landfall farther north. The official track now is about half way between Corpus Christi and Houston near Palacious Texas. It is forecat to be at or near category 4 status as it approaches the Texas coast. The Houston Ship Channel represents 23% of the nation’s oil refining capacity. The city of Houston has over 2 million people and the Metropolitan Houston has over 5 million. While the exact landfall will be a key to how much damage, if any, is done to the infrastructure of the refining industry and offshore oil production, the storm is so large that it seems an almost certainty that this region will be adversely affected. Should the storm indeed become a 135 mph at landfall, damage from the center to about 20 or 30 miles could be catastrophic. The storm surge from Palacious to Galveston would be significant. Because we’re running out of time here and the storm is projected to make a landfall on Friday night, I know I”m telling my friends and family to the right of the forecast track to decide what they are going to do now and do it.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0910 18Z

Now…after sounding that alarm I will tell you that the forward speed of the storm

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0910 5pm

could be different than forecast. My guess is that if it were different, it would probably be more likely to be slightly slower. Note that the spaghetti intensity models do not all take the Cat 4 route and that the NHC has chosen to go close to top of the range. That is because there is very little to suggest that it will not continue to increase in intensity. So far, the winds have not increased to what the corresponding pressure would support, but the pressure has not dropped any further in the past 6 hours. So, the jury is out somewhat. The forecast track will be wholly determined by how much and when the ridge builds back in, forcing the storm more westward, and how much and when it breaks down as the storm approaches the Texas coast. The forecast track has Ike taking a sharp turn after landfall. If that ridge breaks down either because a big trof is moving down more quickly or the hurricane moves more slowly, that turn could take place prior to landfall. Such a turn might put Galveston in greater peril or…and there is zero data to support this….a really early turn might even threaten farther up the Texas coast. Contrarily, if the ridge builds in stronger, does not break down as quickly and the storm moves faster, then it could conceivably be closer to Corpus Christi.

There is still almost the entire Gulf of Mexico for Ike to conquer and there remain several scenarios. Nonetheless, if you are near or to the right of the current forecast track, it would be wise to consider what it is you plan to do and do it. The shear volume of people though along the upper Texas coast requires that action be taken perhaps before any certainty can be ascertained.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT…WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING…INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND…RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS…ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS…WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE…I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO…WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE…MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE…AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST…THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Led Zepplin Forecast for Hurricane Ike September 10, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 1645Z 0910

Robert, John Paul, John, Jimmy & Ike?

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For the time being, the song for Hurricane Ike remains the same. It’s still getting itself going and on the increase. The central core seems to be going through some sort of organization in that it had an eye not long after it came offshore but then seemed to fill in. Its still there but the hurricane hunter calls the 12 mile eye as “poorly defined”. One would suppose that its merely becoming better organized and not going through some mystical phase of self destruction. As I had suspected several days ago, the storm is getting physically quite large and the increase in intensity should continue. The pressure is down to 957 mb which can support more than the current 90 mph winds.

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0910 1645Z

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0910 11AM

As for the track. Its still about the same, just north of Corpus near Port Aransas. Great place to have entirely too much fun in Port Aranasas is Shorty’s. Anyway, the official track now has the sharp turn north just after landfall that I have been suggesting as plausible prior to landfall. At the bottom of the discussion the NHC reminds us of the statistical error window. I still think that Ike may still have a trick up its sleeve.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0910 12Z

THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.  

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Intensity Model 0910 12Z

OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES.  WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/1500Z 23.9N  85.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  86.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  88.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 25.7N  90.7W   105 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  93.1W   110 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  97.0W   105 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  98.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  96.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Ike Forecast Nudged North September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visibile Image 0909 2115

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0909 18Z

for a more recent update on hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

I’ve got other thing to do so this will be short. I’m going sculling with Snow White. The forecast track graphic is from the Naval Research Lab because I think it shows better specific stuff like towns and lat/lon lines. Hurricane Ike has emerged from Cuba in pretty good shape. It has a great looking

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track NRL Graphic 0909 5pm

outflow and the water vapor imagery is devoid of any dry air within the storm that would mess it up. The winds are said to be at minimal intensity as it moved offshore but the central pressure is a very healthy 968 mb. That will support much higher winds. I suspect that this guy is going to ramp back up fairly quickly. As for the track, those models have become more clustered again, like they were yesterday, but that cluster has moved north. The National Hurricane Center forecast has shifted north, pretty much on the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 18Z

consensus track, just north of Corpus Christi. If you read my last post you will not be surprised to find out that I am not surprised by the official shift. There are some refineries in that area and around Port Lavaca but nothing like the 23% of the nations refining capacity along the Houston Ship Channel. The track is still not Gospel. What the forecast track reflects is the breaking down of the ridge as a trof moves in. It gets caught up in the trof and zips north to San Antonio and then west of Dallas. It should bring rain to the plains and Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday but will be moving very rapidly so overly excessive rain is not a huge likelihood.

So, here’s the bottom line. The Spaghetti model consensus has gone from Houston to Brownsville to south of Corpus Christi to North of Corpus Christi in 36 hours. The track is not Gospel. Other scenarios are possible. Stay tuned….should be interesting.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA…ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE…AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW…968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME…THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO…INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES…REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF…WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF…SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Perhaps Hurricane Ike is a Cattle Man…or Maybe A Magic Man September 9, 2008

Cowboy Ike?

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 0909 1615Z

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Rainbow 0909 12Z

for a more recent update on hurricane ike CLICK HERE

We seem to have some continuity for once. The cows of the King Ranch are chewing their cud a little faster. For the first time in several days, the models have had some consistency from run to run. Well, the majority anyway, The ECMWF has been consistent with a South Texas landfall for a few days now and the others have come around. The National Hurricance Center seems to have stopped its trending South (remember yesterday morning the spaghetti consensus was the Houston area. and for the time being has settled on a King Ranch scenario. BUT Ike may have another trick up its sleeve…some interesting items are coming

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0909 11AM

about. Yesterday, I saw one model run of some different model (I don’t recall which one) that had the storm approach South Texas and suddenly take an abrupt turn north. That track took it to Houston…not directly as the official forecast had at the time, but by a circuitous route. What is happening now is that there are several models including the ECMWF and the all-over-the-place GFS take the storm into South Texas and then make an abrupt turn to the north toward Austin. What is going on is that the big front that is scheduled to bring lows in the 40′s and perhaps even highs that don’t get into the 70′s in Louisville is still the preferred solution for early next week. These models advertising the abrupt turn are calling for the trof to dig all the way into Texas. Now…here’s a plausible scenario. Ike

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0909 12Z

traverses the Gulf as suggested…but does so more slowly. The trof digs down as some models suggest. The turn now being called for just after landfall happens just offshore of Texas prior to landfall as the trof and Ike meet farther out in the Gulf because of Ike’s slowed pace. The storm turns and threatens the upper Texas coast or even Louisiana or maybe even other parts of the north Gulf Coast. Earlier, several models had abrupt turns northeast. Some had it from the upper Texas coast to SW Louisiana, others kept insisting on the storm going to the mouth of the Mississippi river before turning Northeast or even East. So, we’ve got a trof coming down. If, and its a big IF, the trof does dig down then the abrupt turn

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 12Z

somewhere comes back into play. I see some of the models on the spaghetti presentation are suggesting this scenario.  At this point I’m in no way going out on that limb, in fact I’m not going on any limb. I’m not even in any tree at this point.  I saw some expert last night say definitively it was going to Houston directly. I suspect he will be singing a different tune today. But all I am saying is that the song being sung by the models now may not be the final tune. So far, they have introduced numerous different verses and I suspect that the song is still being written as we speak.  My guess is that the NHC has stopped their trend south for the time being to wait and see what the piano-player has in mind next.

 

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL…AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS…BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.  SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY…BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT…RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF…AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN…WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR…AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING…AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF…WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE…WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2…AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT
12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT
24HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT
36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT
48HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W   100 KT
72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Does Houston Have A Problem? September 7, 2008

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0907 1945 Z

Hurricane Ike IR Satellite 0907 1945Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

Once again, a little short.  Snow White and I are going to Bible Study so I’ve got to be quick.  The models are still all over the place.  The ECMWF has Hurricane Ike going to Brownsville. The US Navy NOGAPS has Hurricane Ike going to kiss New Orleans, not even making landfall and then moving almost due east along the coast back toward Florida.   The CMC and GFS both target Houston/Galveston.  All have it as a pretty intense hurricane.   All are taking different takes on a trof late in the week.  It would appear to me that the previously advertised big trof will not dig down as far as forecast.  The 850′s around here stay  in the mid teens through much of the weekend whereas previously they dove to around 9.  This would tend to indicate that the ridge hangs tough in the Dixie

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0907 5pm

states  and so a Tejas landfall is perhaps a better bet than the northern Gulf Coast.  The ECMWF has the ridge so strong that it just takes the storm due west to Brownsville while the the CMC and GFS break down the ridge enough for a SE Texas landfall.  The NOGAPS still wants to dig the trof but later in the weekend, thus the influence north toward  the mouth of the Mississippi and then a move east as the trof progresses. That due east idea seems far fetched.  Anyway, thats it for now.  The NHC seems to be going along with the idea that the ridge hangs tough. Way too soon to tell where landfall will be or the intensity though its interesting that a few of the models still want to ramp it up.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0907 18Z

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE.  THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT
AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT.  A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED…BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0907 5pm

ACCORDINGLY…SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA…WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE’S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 5pm 0907

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH WEAKENS.  IN 2-3 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE’S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE
NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.  THIS PATTERN
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS
4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  HOWEVER…ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK…AND IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/2100Z 21.1N  74.6W   105 KT
12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   100 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.8W    85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  80.8W    70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N  82.6W    65 KT
72HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N  85.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     11/1800Z 26.0N  88.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  91.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN