Complete Hurricane Ike Gallery-Season Over; Not Much Snow November 30, 2008

Don

 

Look for the local forecast below….

Seraching For Victims of Ike

Today is the final day of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic.  This past year, there were 8 hurricanes and 16 named storms.  The forecast was about right on the named storms and short on the number of tropical cyclones that reached hurricane status.  Five of the hurricanes were considered “major” hurricanes, which is a high percentage.  So, the forecasters get a “B” in my book.  Here is a list of all of the storms with an archive of the advisories. 

I bet you didn’t know that Gustav was responsible for 46 deaths and $1.9 billion in damage.

The storm with the biggest impact on the US was Hurricane Ike.  Curiously, the press did not really give it

Hurricane Ike Radar Image At Landfall

much coverage after the storm was over even though I believe current cost estimates ($8.1 Billion) would put it as the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew, though I’m sure there will be quibbling about cost vs. inflation adjusted costs.   Ike also has so far been responsible for the deaths of 72 people with impacts far inland from its Galveston landfall.  There are still scores of people missing.  Yet, the press corps didn’t seem to think it was worth reporting.   You make the call as to why. Here’s a published story.  Anyway, over time, I had lots and lots of photos and videos associated with Ike from local video to NASA stuff.  Take a gander at it all below:

NYTIMES Slide show

AP SLIDE SHOW-via yahoo

Houston Chronicle

Houston Chronicle Reader’s Photo Gallery

More Photos from Houston

More Galveston Photos

Hurricane Ike Rescue photos

BBC Slide Show

CNN Link Video-Some Live shots(as of 4pm EDT 0914)

Louisville Wind Damage From Ike video

Louisville Wind Damage Slide Show

KHOU-Bolivar Peninsula Destroyed-Video

CNN photos 19

CNN Houston Photos 8

Austin American Statesman photos 265

Hurricane Ike Damage -Boston WCVB Slide Show 63 images

Crystal Beach Video-Before Hurricane Ike

Crystal Beach Family Photo Video-Before Hurricane Ike

Crystal Beach Video-After Hurricane Ike Destruction

LA Times slideshow

Boston Globe (28 photos)

some GREAT HD images

NWS (more photos) Louisville

aerial video including Valhalla Louisville

RAW VIDEO FROM SUNDAY Louisville 9/14 aerials

Guardian UK Hurricane Ike Aftermath Photos

WCVB  The Boston Channel

Spreadit photos

Here are USGS Before and After photos from Bolivar Peninsula.

(Graphical Map of Crystal Beach Detailing Devastation)

Numerous videos from Houston/Galveston Aftermath of Hurricane Ike

KRIV Hurricane Ike Damage Photos.

link to the NYTimes slide show Galvestonians return to island

18Z Sat Mesoeta 48 Hr Sfc Temps

No Snow: I”ve tried to find an excuse to get you folks excited about snow but it just isn’t there.  The 18Z

Sat 18Z Mesoeta 48 Hr. Precip

Sat 18Z Mesoeta 48 hr 900mb

Meso-ETA is the model that I am using as an example and, while the GFS is a little colder, the Meso-ETA is pretty representative of the current thinking which is that the lower part of the atmosphere will be just too warm when the precipitation is falling.   I guess the biggest difference is that the GFS would put out about a quarter to half inch of snow Monday night that may accumulate but we’re thinking that most of the moisture will be out of here by then.  If you look at the 1PM Monday Meso-ETA precip, then compare it with the surface temperatures you will see that they are well above freezing.  Then, the 900 mb temperatures are just above -4C which is about 25F and is about 800 meters off the deck…2500 feet or so.  This is not a very good recipe for snow…maybe snow showers on Monday but accumulation will be tough and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some light rain mix in with any snow.  Kids, you’re going to school. The week ahead looks cold with Wednesday the exception with highs in the low to mid 50′s ahead of another cold front.

Tropical Storm Kyle; Hurricane Ike Damage Photos Before and After From Cameron, LA to Freeport Texas September 25, 2008

Holly Beach Before and After Ike

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

The USGS has issued a number of remarkable photos from west of Galveston near Freeport Texas to Cameron Louisiana. They are generally photos from a few days before Hurricane Ike to a day or so after Hurricane Ike. However, the Louisiana photos also give some perspective from prior to Hurricane Rita and after Rita then followed by the Ike sequence. It’s very interesting how Rita took away and then over a few years how the area recovered regarding the land and beach area. Then look at how Hurricane Ike almost totally wiped out what was left. Keep in mind that where the Louisiana photos were taken were about 100 miles east of Galveston. Pretty remarkable. Here are the before/after sequences from the USGS

Surfside to San Luis Pass, Tx-USGS

Galveston, Tx -USGS

Bolivar Peninsula, Tx-USGS

High Island to Sabine Pass, TX-USGS

Cameron Parish, LA-USGS

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 5pm 0925

Tropical Storm Kyle: Tropical storm Kyle formed…well…the system that has been

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0925 18Z

lolligagging over the Dominican that looked pretty good so many times and then faded finally got away from the islands and they just skipped the tropical depression stage and went straight to the Tropical Storm stage. That didn’t surprise me because it had a pretty good wind field but the problem was it didn’t have a sufficient closed circulation. So, when it got away from land it closed up a bit. The forecast calls for it to get up to minimal hurricane and move up toward Nova Scotia. It should move pretty quickly and is close enough to New England to keep an eye peeled. It won’t be this intense but the track will be fairly close to the same track as the Great New England Hurricane of 1938.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0925 2015Z

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION THAN

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 18Z

EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED…THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT

48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT

72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS