Holly Beach Before and After Ike
for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog
The USGS has issued a number of remarkable photos from west of Galveston near Freeport Texas to Cameron Louisiana. They are generally photos from a few days before Hurricane Ike to a day or so after Hurricane Ike. However, the Louisiana photos also give some perspective from prior to Hurricane Rita and after Rita then followed by the Ike sequence. It’s very interesting how Rita took away and then over a few years how the area recovered regarding the land and beach area. Then look at how Hurricane Ike almost totally wiped out what was left. Keep in mind that where the Louisiana photos were taken were about 100 miles east of Galveston. Pretty remarkable. Here are the before/after sequences from the USGS
Surfside to San Luis Pass, Tx-USGS
High Island to Sabine Pass, TX-USGS
Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 5pm 0925
Tropical Storm Kyle: Tropical storm Kyle formed…well…the system that has been
Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0925 18Z
lolligagging over the Dominican that looked pretty good so many times and then faded finally got away from the islands and they just skipped the tropical depression stage and went straight to the Tropical Storm stage. That didn’t surprise me because it had a pretty good wind field but the problem was it didn’t have a sufficient closed circulation. So, when it got away from land it closed up a bit. The forecast calls for it to get up to minimal hurricane and move up toward Nova Scotia. It should move pretty quickly and is close enough to New England to keep an eye peeled. It won’t be this intense but the track will be fairly close to the same track as the Great New England Hurricane of 1938.
Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0925 2015Z
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION THAN
Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 18Z
EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED…THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
